Author Topic: CoBF members 2019 returns  (Read 9362 times)

Schwab711

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Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
« Reply #60 on: January 09, 2020, 01:10:08 PM »
Just got back from vacation, did some administrative work today. 2019 return: 29.05% (in EUR), give or take a few basis points. Returns since I started doing this full-time:

2014: 17.51%
2015: 11.89%
2016: 36.96%
2017: 22.86%
2018: 15.41%
2019: 29.05%


I'm only surprised that you've dipped below 20% before. Really impressive returns, especially considering your strategy! Congratulations on Baby Writser!


stahleyp

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Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
« Reply #61 on: January 09, 2020, 01:56:51 PM »
congrats on the baby! My returns really started to suck after having the 2nd one in 2018.  I'm indexing more and more these days (for better or worse). With work and sleep deprivation I figure it's probably for the best.
Paul

Jurgis

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Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
« Reply #62 on: January 09, 2020, 04:59:54 PM »
IMO Writser is currently the best investor on CoBF.  8)

- He is consistently outperforming.
- He has a clear repeatable process.
- He posts his ideas with clear exposition of pros/cons.
- He is mostly open about his picks/buys/sells even though some of them are low liquidity.
- It is possible to follow his process without missing significant parts of his portfolio.
- It is clear why his process and his picks can/should outperform.
- His picks are not market correlated and not momo or hedge-fund or value-investing hotels.
- His portfolio is diversified and not concentrated into few picks that can blow up.

If I was forced to read posts of one person only, I'd pick Writser.
Even though I don't invest like him and I don't buy >90% of his picks.  ::)
"Before you can be rich, you must be poor." - Nef Anyo
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BG2008

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Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
« Reply #63 on: January 09, 2020, 06:12:12 PM »
IMO Writser is currently the best investor on CoBF.  8)

- He is consistently outperforming.
- He has a clear repeatable process.
- He posts his ideas with clear exposition of pros/cons.
- He is mostly open about his picks/buys/sells even though some of them are low liquidity.
- It is possible to follow his process without missing significant parts of his portfolio.
- It is clear why his process and his picks can/should outperform.
- His picks are not market correlated and not momo or hedge-fund or value-investing hotels.
- His portfolio is diversified and not concentrated into few picks that can blow up.

If I was forced to read posts of one person only, I'd pick Writser.
Even though I don't invest like him and I don't buy >90% of his picks.  ::)

writser

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Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
« Reply #64 on: January 10, 2020, 01:01:04 AM »
Thanks for the kind words all. Not sure I deserve them. My portfolio should withstand a big crisis first. Some shameless self-promotion: last year I've been shifting some stock discussion to Twitter instead of CoBF. I think it's a decent platform to share some real-time thoughts about stocks and the stock market. @thewritser.

Even though I don't invest like him and I don't buy >90% of his picks.  ::)
Jet lagged and deprived of sleep after a return flight from a tropical island I read 'even though I don't like him'. Which would have been totally understandable but is fortunately not the case.

Have you looked into : EAC.CPH recently? [Your game!]
I took a quick peek. Seems cheapish indeed but with a ~$3.5m mcap overhead will quickly erode any value (even though it is only estimated to be $300k / year, which many American nanocaps can only dream about .. ). Even more importantly, I am unqualified to say anything sensible about the ongoing tax disputes. Given that the company implies that losing these cases causes 'significant uncertainty around the company's going concern' I feel like I can quickly discard this company until the transfer tax issues have been clarified. In my limited experience, when a tax authority is interested in suing you they can make life very difficult for you for a very long time. Not to mention legal costs when your market cap is $3.5m. FWIW, this seems like a company with a cool history.

Also, I forgot to mention one of the more stinging lows of the year that demonstrates what an idiot I sometimes am. During H2 2019 I was notified about a liquidating real estate fund (non-US) that supposedly was attractive. I did some reading, looked at the latest quarterly, modelled the liquidation and yes: it looked quite attractive indeed. I quickly bought a decent position as shares weren't trading frequently and there was a bit of a time constraint. The next day I found out that some non-current liabilities were on the next page in the quarterly. Never bothered to flip the page or do some very basic calculations .. Idiotic. I quickly updated my model. Guess what: shares were actually reasonably priced. Instead of trying to sell my position (which was a bit difficult: again, an illiquid name) I said to myself: Writser, you are actually being too conservative with your estimate of liquidating costs. Also your estimate of rental income is probably a bit too low. I fiddled a bit with the numbers so I could just about convince myself that holding was slightly more attractive than selling. Needless to say, a few days later the company came with new guidance that was 100% in line with my model before I started tinkering with it and shares dropped a few percent. In the end the whole situation turned out great but the process was a disaster. Forgetting a page of the financials: terrible. Doubling down on your mistake: unforgivable.

Now let's get this thread back on topic.
« Last Edit: January 20, 2020, 12:34:03 PM by writser »
When you are dead, you do not know you are dead. It's only painful and difficult for others. The same applies when you are stupid.

@thewritser

generalsandworkouts

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Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
« Reply #65 on: January 10, 2020, 11:45:40 PM »
I was up 21.38% in 2019, including franking tax credits we get here in Australia. I started tracking my performance properly a couple of years ago. I was up 10.94% in 2018 and 5.97% for August-December 2017. Biggest winner for me in 2019 was a stock called Open Orphan (formerly Venn Life Sciences), which I bought as a net-net after a recommendation from a friend. It's now up >280%. (I run a pretty diversified portfolio so even after that gain it's a ~10% position.) I also made a lot of dumb mistakes. The good news is there's still plenty of room for improvement.
I write about deep value stocks, net-nets and special situations on my blog: https://generalsandworkouts.blogspot.com/

John Hjorth

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Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
« Reply #66 on: January 11, 2020, 12:14:50 AM »
Welcome to CoBF, generalsandworkouts! [ : - ) ]
”In the race of excellence … there is no finish line.”
-HH Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates and Ruler of Dubai

NewbieD

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Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
« Reply #67 on: January 12, 2020, 02:11:49 AM »
+28%. First year since 2011 that I didn’t beat my index (OMS All-Share cap GI) with >10% and actually lagged. A bit too defensive, estimate 75% net long and had one conviction bet go down 30%.

CorpRaider

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Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
« Reply #68 on: January 14, 2020, 11:03:52 AM »
For a point of reference QVAL was up 23.52% in 2019 (NAV); IVAL 20.59% (NAV).

rkbabang

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Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
« Reply #69 on: January 14, 2020, 11:50:09 AM »
27.83%  for 2019*.  Underperformed the S&P500, but I'll take it.

I sold about 10% of my portfolio to invest in a piece of real estate in July and some of the stocks I sold did well the second half of the year, so that probably hurt me some.  Also POEFF going way down in December (from ~US$2 to US$0.80) hurt my returns.

*EDIT:  Changed 2020 to 2019. I was getting ahead of myself I guess.
« Last Edit: January 14, 2020, 12:13:34 PM by rkbabang »