Corner of Berkshire & Fairfax Message Board

General Category => General Discussion => Topic started by: John Hjorth on December 31, 2019, 03:00:04 AM

Title: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: John Hjorth on December 31, 2019, 03:00:04 AM
It's this time of year! [ : - D] -Let the show & show-off begin! [ : - D]

- - - o 0 o - - -

I've widened the span in the poll options materially compared to last years poll [span now 175%], and made it more fine meshed than last year - if you may be "outside ballpark" in the poll, I sincerely hope it's in the positive end!
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: cherzeca on December 31, 2019, 07:30:32 AM
I have multiple portfolios, most of them safe.  I will answer poll with respect to my risk portfolio... ;)
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: EricSchleien on December 31, 2019, 08:50:48 AM
+47%
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: John Hjorth on December 31, 2019, 08:59:28 AM
I have multiple portfolios, most of them safe.  I will answer poll with respect to my risk portfolio... ;)

We all have our own way to define what we report here. So be it, and that's OK. [It's just for fun - what really matters for all of us - and we all know that - is the long term track record of the outcome of what you do with your capital/AUM].
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: John Hjorth on December 31, 2019, 09:00:46 AM
+47%

That's awesome, Eric!,

Happy New Year!
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: John Hjorth on December 31, 2019, 09:43:15 AM
At around 6:30 PM my local time, I added yet another 50% on the upside in poll options. Lonely outlier on the upside, you are hereby free to edit your vote. [Note to readers : As the poll creator, I can't see who has voted what - just in case you may think about it.]

- - - o 0 o - - -

Unfortunately, there is no practical way here on CoBF to expand the span to the downside. [No way of rearranging poll options, leaving votes already cast untouched.] [As if a return of less than minus 50% wasn't "enough" [ : - / ].]
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: LC on December 31, 2019, 01:00:36 PM
23% in the main account...the other IRAs/401Ks etc. are all invested in SP500 index so that will lead the overall number towards the index return. I should probably just dump it all into an index :D
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: John Hjorth on December 31, 2019, 01:24:37 PM
24% pre tax for 2019, and that's with a Berkshire position YE2019 at ~34%. [To me, Berkshire advanced ~13% in my functional currency, in USD Berkshire seem to me to have advanced ~11 %.]
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: JRM on December 31, 2019, 01:41:36 PM
43% for my only actively managed account.  currently sitting on about 22% cash.

21.9% cagr since 2013.  I'm one of those investors that started in 2008/09 (all mutual funds back then), so I haven't had to ride out a greater than 20% market drop.  we'll see what happens.
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: Rod on December 31, 2019, 02:34:21 PM
+66% due to an insane degree of concentration and a great year by my biggest holding Dream Unlimited (DRM-T)
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: gokou3 on December 31, 2019, 02:59:32 PM
Inline with the S&P500 return (+29%), despite actively managing my portfolio  ;)
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: gary17 on December 31, 2019, 10:31:33 PM
71%
  leveraged portfolio
concentrations in BAC, CSU, SHOP, AAPL, XPEL, SSW and RH helped !
got a few smaller positions in msft, TSU, V, MA, FB, AMZN , etc all did well too, i guess it's a bull market, so could have just picked five stocks and likely got similar or better results LOL, no skill involved.
     
  i picked up some FFH lately and am studying GUD, MTY, BYD.UN  etc for 2020

 
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: orthopa on January 01, 2020, 05:54:30 AM
55.4%

Concentrated holdings some leverage. MA,V, AAPL, BRK.B and Fannie preferred.
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: chrispy on January 01, 2020, 06:07:18 AM
66.3% unlevered. It was a fun year but unfortunately they all can't be like this. Today we are back to a 0% gain for the year!
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: KJP on January 01, 2020, 07:20:53 AM
31%

All in USD, pre-tax:

2019: 31%
2018: 11%
2017: 10%
2016: 22%

Several big winners this year:  Quorum, Charter, XPel (sold too early), HireQuest (nee Command Center), IES Holdings, NVR (sold too early)
Also some big losers:  QVC, Fortress Paper, Flybe [fortunately these were all small positions]
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: Gamecock-YT on January 01, 2020, 08:44:51 AM
33%, my 2019 best idea mentioned in the thread hit with STNG up 123%. GLIBA and LBRDA were up around 73%. Started the year with ~55% cash and short term treasuries. Ended the year at 63% cash and a sharp reduction in duration. Didn't open a new position for the entire year, turning into Rip Van Winkle. Current equity allocation is 49% cable, 31% commodities (non energy), 18% energy, 2% financials.



2019: 33.0%
2018: -15.5%
2017: 35.0%
2016: 17.3%
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: CorpRaider on January 01, 2020, 10:09:00 AM
I did 77.92% in my main discretionary account (retail punter here) for 2019 calendar year, but it was almost all bounce back from quoted value decimation end of 2018 (in like AVP, BRX, COTY, and CAG (lol avon was up like 270%)).  It has been a crazy little ride for a purportedly efficient market.
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: no_free_lunch on January 01, 2020, 10:21:35 AM
2018 and 2019 combined i did just over 20% total.  I tend to exceed in bear and lag in bull markets so i am happy with the results.  I havd a high Canadian and international exposure with a high bond allocation so it never really roars. 

You guys are posting some amazing numbers. Congrats!
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: DocSnowball on January 01, 2020, 10:36:32 AM
2019: 21%
2018: -19%
2017: 7%
2016: 192%


Experienced my first investment going down to zero. Antibiotic companies lost more than 90% of their market cap from 2016 to 2019, including the bankruptcy of Achaogen in 2019. Happy to be learning everyday and grateful for the CoBF learning community. Thanks everyone and a happy and prosperous 2020 to all.
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: orion on January 01, 2020, 11:35:53 AM
2019: +44%
2018: -1%
2017: +65%
2016: +20%
2015: +17%
2014: +11%
2013: +114%
2012: +44%
2011: +8%

Happy 2020 to all of you!
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: Viking on January 01, 2020, 12:44:15 PM
9.4% (about 12% ex currency as the CAN$ appreciated versus US$). Very happy with return as I had very high cash balances for much of the year :-)
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: thepupil on January 01, 2020, 01:38:10 PM
Quote
2017:

Quote
Taxable 1:    12.5%, (11.2% annualized since 5/2013), this account runs hedged to a max 20% drawdown (via lots of puts), used to short, and owns puts that hedge taxable 2 so it's a little skewed downward but no excuses lol)

Taxable 2:    Whatever unhedged Berkshire did, more or less, no long term performance data, recently opened Fido account

IRA:             18.5%  (22.5% annualized since 10/2013), concentrated long only

IRA 2            ~16%, Fido account rolled over last year so no long term performance was a 401k in stable value previously

Roth IRA:     16.8%  (17.8% annualized since 10/2013), concentrated long only


Spent a lot on hedges and margin interest in my taxable (which is fine because that's the plan, I invest 100% of my paycheck in my taxable and borrow from it to fund living expenditures, basically I buy 100% of my takehome in hedged Berkshire. The IRA's underperformed but they are very lumpy and I'm okay with that.

Worst decision was getting rid of ~200 bps of BTC in 2016 "cleaning up portfolio".

2018:

All Interactive Brokers accounts (this is Taxable 1, IRA 1, and Roth consolidated into one performance because I'm lazy now):

1 yr: -2.41% with S&P and ACWI at -4.3% and -9.4%
3 yr: +14.9% / annum with S&P and ACWI at +9.3% and +6.6%
5 yr: +10.2% / annum with S&P and ACWI at +8.5% and +4.3%

Outperformance to S&P for consolidated IBKR accounts. I am US based and heavily biased to the US and real estate/financials.
1 yr: +1.9%
3 yr: +5.6%
5 yr: +1.7%

Oddly, this year (a down year) my best performing account was the taxable account that is levered long (on a cash basis) and pays a fair bit of margin interest but is hedged with puts to a max drawdown. That account was up 4.4%. The 100% long and unhedged accounts were down between 6 and 8%.

Thus far in my investing career, I don't know if I've added much value against the indices in terms of risk adjusted returns. 1/2 of my assets are in non-taxable accounts which makes me less concerned about adding value after taxes. I think my portfolio is less fundamentally risky than the indices but we will only know over time. I know that from 2011-2013 (before opening IBKR accounts) I outperformed by about 20% cumulatively, so this would improve the since inceptions a bit, maybe to like 3-4% outperformance / year.

My Fidelity accounts don't seem to have a readily available performance calculator. I'll have to look into this. IBKR is over 2/3 of assets.

My work 401K (~8% of asset) was all in stable value then all in REIT index as of February/March (which was a profitable trade) then all in EM Index (which has given a little bit of performance back). The sum of that was a +5% return from index/market timing.

2019

Consolidated IBKR account: 22.6%. Got rid of my Fido taxable and rolled that back into IBKR, have another IRA that's all in TGONF (12% or so return) and a work 401K that's completely in Vanguard Emerging Markets, which returned about 18%, so my overall investments did slightly worse than IBKR accounts.

I'd regard this to be a pretty terrible relative result that will more or less wipe away a few years of S&P 500 outperformance. Reasons for underperformance are easy to spot; my biggest positions lagged the market in a big way.

My largest positions (on a notional basis) are hedged Berkshire, hedged VNO, Tetragon Financial, none of which did all that great, all of which I'm excited about continuing to hold. 

Over the past 6.5 years, consolidated IBKR accounts is about 13.3% / year (literally right on top of the S&P 500), which includes a taxable account at 11.5%/year, an IRA at about 14.8% / year and a another IRA at 17.1% / year.

The IRA's have always been super concentrated. The taxable started out long/short and ended up with me just using hedges and call options to limit drawdown rather than shorting.
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: kdk77 on January 01, 2020, 04:32:11 PM
32%.  Major positions in BAC, Google, Microsoft. 
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: deleuze68 on January 01, 2020, 09:40:46 PM
Just a shade under 20% for me. First year since 2011 I underperformed the major indexes. Held anywhere between 10 and 25% cash for the year but mostly was held back by a few big mistakes coupled with deep value stocks really lagging.
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: kab60 on January 02, 2020, 01:53:39 AM
2019: 23 pct.
2018: -6,5 pct.
2017: 18,5 pct.
2016: 45 pct
2015: 12,5 pct.

My biggest positions by far going into the year, Alliance Data Systems and Linamar, really hurt compared relative to the indices.

But I doubled my position in Linamar around the bottom and got a nice rebound year end, and I also had some decent trading around Spectrum Brands, GTN and ETM as well as some very welltimed picks in the UK in the autumn (Motorpoint, Clipper Logistics, Cambria Automobiles, Vertu Motors, St. James Place). Dropped some losers like Walgreens and Molson Coors for Altria which also helped. Overall quiet satisfied, but I'm still trying to find my feet as an investor, and it's very humbling to underperform the indices.
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: Dynamic on January 02, 2020, 02:05:41 AM
I answered +15%-<+20% on a USD basis (+18.02% return) - which is the currency I focus on, but I was +13.59% in home currency GBP terms (which has been a rollercoaster currency since mid 2016!). Probably paying the price for coming into 2019 on the back of a sharp uptick in the last week of 2018 that helped me outperform the market that year. Also, a concentrated portfolio is a double-edged sword!

Biggest error of omission in 2019 - setting my AAPL buy price around $135 (with a target of about 25% portfolio exposure) in January and thus missing the ride from $142 to $292 (though I thought I had a better alternative prospect, unless the price reached about $135, which didn't pan out as well). I have ample indirect exposure via Berkshire anyway, which will eventually be reflected in Berkshire's price. I lagged the SP500TR by -13.46% overall in 2019.

Did very nicely on BAC position around 10% of portfolio over whole year plus some covered put/call writing, but otherwise lagged the market mainly due to BRK.B coming into 2019 fairly high after a strong 2018 and coming out fairly low after KHC write-downs and general pessimism and down-rating of its multiple despite what looks like a pretty strong year fundamentally, especially Q4 by my estimations.

4 years of more active management:

2019: +18.02% USD / +13.59% GBP / -13.46% vs SP500TR
2018: +25.30% USD / +32.95% GBP / +29.69% vs SP500TR
2017: +24.83% USD / +14.14% GBP / +2.99% vs SP500TR
2016: +24.16% USD / +54.19% GBP / +12.20% vs SP500TR

4-yr cagr: +23.35% USD / +27.45% GBP / +8.92% vs SP500TR

Prior to 2016, was much more passively managed with little cash added since 2003 and very few trades made. Overall estimated IRR since 2003-ish weighted according to timings of added cashflows ~=
XIRR: +13.17% USD / +14.47% GBP / +2.22% vs SP500TR.

XIRR includes all frictional costs including witholding tax on US dividends, but not capital gains tax, though a small capital gains tax bill will soon be due on 6 Apr 2018 -5 Apr 2019 tax year's unsheltered gains, which exceeded the combined generous UK CGT allowances of myself and my spouse for the first time but is only taxed at 10% of gains above that, or 20% maximum if we gain enough to put us into the top tax bracket. Most of portfolio had previously been tax-sheltered in ISA and unsheltered gains within CGT limits. XIRR also based on approximate reconstructed valuations in early 2003, some historical prices not being available to me due to old investments being taken private. If I include 1999-2003, I had losses before I really understood GARP/value investing that would reduce my outperformance modestly.

Notional SP500TR comparison assumes I bought or sold at total-return index closing price on days when cash was added to or removed from brokerage accounts (but not when transferred between them) and assuming no frictional costs such as tax on dividend distributions.
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: Spekulatius on January 02, 2020, 03:39:08 AM
I have various accounts and my overall estimate is close to 30% return. Stock picking was so so, but some trading around (DD, CTVA, NOW, AMZN etc) really helped. The setup this year was pretty good with the decline in fall 2018, similar to 2015. If I could settle this year for an 8% return, I would take it.
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: hillfronter83 on January 02, 2020, 04:34:01 AM
Did around 18% overall. Interesting that my taxable account where I did less trading was up about 40%. In hinder sight, made several unforced errors trying to "speculate" for quick profits that backfired.

This board certainly made investing a lot more fun. Thanks and wish everyone good luck in 2020!
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: Dynamic on January 02, 2020, 06:57:27 AM
I find it interesting that in most years, the mode and median of the distribution of returns from the voting histogram appear to be (currently) very close to the S&P500 Total Return, with a fair spread above and below and a few notable outliers with very high or very low returns in an individual year. This gives some confidence that this anonymous self-reporting is relatively close to reality. I think I've noticed relatively similar things in previous years' polls.

Obviously, it's relatively rare to consistently beat the market by more than 5% or 10% year after year (one or two bins in the histogram), but 5-10% annually represents an enormous outperformance over a decade or two, so it doesn't mean that CoBF members don't tend to beat the market by a lot in the long run.

We have a lot of people making different decisions, with different time horizons and strategies, some who pay no attention to market price from year to year, and we tend to be pretty well clustered around the market return and close to normally distributed. I suspect a lot of that expected randomness is caused by the relatively short time span of 1-year where the random walk of market multiples and sentiment is more dominant than any long-term outperformance trend. If people had a record of their 3-year, 5-year or 10-year market value returns, I suspect we'd only then start to see whether CoBF members have a marked advantage or disadvantage compared to the market, though then the methodology can also influence the returns reported (e.g. how do you account for money added or removed from the portfolio or for dividends). I know one or two of the members here don't track it, and are quite content with just a vague estimate for their returns, which they continue to knock out of the park by such a margin that dividends and cash movements really don't matter.

It would also be interesting to see if the spread is tighter over longer time-frames and whether there are consistent outliers who regularly post 35%+ annualised returns or more or whether most of the 1-year outliers are highly concentrated and volatile, alternating randomly between +50% and -30% and end up averaging closer to market returns in the longer term.
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: Jurgis on January 02, 2020, 08:02:46 AM
If people had a record of their 3-year, 5-year or 10-year market value returns, I suspect we'd only then start to see whether CoBF members have a marked advantage or disadvantage compared to the market, though then the methodology can also influence the returns reported (e.g. how do you account for money added or removed from the portfolio or for dividends). I know one or two of the members here don't track it, and are quite content with just a vague estimate for their returns, which they continue to knock out of the park by such a margin that dividends and cash movements really don't matter.

It would also be interesting to see if the spread is tighter over longer time-frames and whether there are consistent outliers who regularly post 35%+ annualised returns or more or whether most of the 1-year outliers are highly concentrated and volatile, alternating randomly between +50% and -30% and end up averaging closer to market returns in the longer term.

You can start a 3/5/10 year return poll.  ;)

My previous simplified polls:
https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/performance-vs-index-5-years/msg260236/#msg260236
https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/performance-vs-index/

Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: John Hjorth on January 02, 2020, 01:10:31 PM
If people had a record of their 3-year, 5-year or 10-year market value returns, I suspect we'd only then start to see whether CoBF members have a marked advantage or disadvantage compared to the market, though then the methodology can also influence the returns reported (e.g. how do you account for money added or removed from the portfolio or for dividends). I know one or two of the members here don't track it, and are quite content with just a vague estimate for their returns, which they continue to knock out of the park by such a margin that dividends and cash movements really don't matter.

It would also be interesting to see if the spread is tighter over longer time-frames and whether there are consistent outliers who regularly post 35%+ annualised returns or more or whether most of the 1-year outliers are highly concentrated and volatile, alternating randomly between +50% and -30% and end up averaging closer to market returns in the longer term.

You can start a 3/5/10 year return poll.  ;)

My previous simplified polls:
https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/performance-vs-index-5-years/msg260236/#msg260236 (https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/performance-vs-index-5-years/msg260236/#msg260236)
https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/performance-vs-index/ (https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/performance-vs-index/)

This is indeed an interesting discussion! - Thanks Dynamic & Jurgis! [ : - ) ],

As I already mentioned in one of my early posts in this topic, this topic & the poll contained in it is "just for fun", - for more than one reason:

1. Polls are indeed fun - because they "trigger" posts from people with low posting frequency [who have done well],
2. The sharing of experiences shed lights on details that have been going on, that perhaps have been outside of the general scope of the discussions going on here on CoBF,
3. The sharing of approaches and lines of thinking - no matter the time horizon - to me always provide some useful insights to relate to. [It doesn't mean we all have to engage individually],
4. Outlier returns are not to be underestimated [if, negative, they can actually take you out of the game - almost for good, with no real possibility to recover, if really bad, or, if positive, they can provide some laurels to rest on, perhaps at least for a period].

- - - o 0 o - - -

In short, I'll take on to set up those 3/5/10 years returns polls here on CoBF! - I'll just need some time to do it.
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: TwoCitiesCapital on January 02, 2020, 02:00:13 PM
2015: ~(20)%
2016: 24.7%
2017: 25.9%
2018: (-14.1%)


2019: 25.5%

Results are consolidated across varying accounts with varying discretion (i.e. limitations on investment options in 401k and HSA and etc).

Satisfied with results even with relative underperformance. I spent most of the year holding/trading long puts on the SPY which cost me ~1.5-2% in total and was also ~35-40% bonds/cash for the last half of the year reducing the impact of the Q4 rally to new highs. So lower returns, but dramatically lower risk IMO.

Performance driver largely the same as prior years going back to 2015:

Massively long EM, commodity producers, and non-USD stocks. Each of those positions were reduced through 2019 to realize gains, add bonds, and roll puts.

Best performing positions in no particular order

FMCCJ (~10% weight)
Sberbank (~8% weight)
Gazprom (~5% weight)
Exor (~6% weight)

Zillow (~2% weight)
OZM/SCU (~1% weight)
Sibanye Gold (~1% weight)




Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: Dynamic on January 02, 2020, 05:34:33 PM
In short, I'll take on to set up those 3/5/10 years returns polls here on CoBF! - I'll just need some time to do it.

Absolutely no rush on this. You could present the options as both annualised and total return.

e.g. over 5 years, >=8.0 to <10.0% annualised would be 46.9%-61.1% total

(1.08^5 - 1)*100 = 46.9% ; (1.10^5 - 1)*100 = 61.1%

Maybe aim for 2% width poll options within +/- 14% of the SP500TR annualised return, then widen out to 5% bin widths then 10% for the more extreme outliers as you deviate very far from the index return. I'd anticipate that many of the typical results would be clustered fairly tightly on an annualised basis as the holding period extends and randomness gives way to skill, so we'd need smaller bin widths anywhere in the vicinity of the index to get a decent picutre, but that some of the outliers would have extreme difference from the index by sustaining exceptional outperformance or potentially even underperformance.
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: gjangal on January 03, 2020, 04:49:30 PM
48.08% XIRR for the year.

I have a 10 year record now of 17% CAGR total return. I have been lucky with some picks. I use no leverage whatsover. Only compounder type stocks and mostly buy and hold till thesis holds true. If i make a mistake or thesis is wrong i sell out. I also don't do very deep analysis, a few basic checks and some research around the managers. I typically like founder run stocks

Good amount of learning in this decade, i am thankful for this community for helping me learn. Hope to contribute more than i do now

2019    -  48.08%
2018    -  2.34%
2017    -  26.38%
2016    -  0.09%
2015    -  11.71%
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: Saluki on January 04, 2020, 07:29:48 PM
Silly question but does anyone have a good software tool or plugin to calculate this?  I add to my account throughout the year, so it's not a straightforward calculation.  I know IBKR has a tool for calculating your return vs SP500 over time, but my brokerage account does not (and I can't switch to IBKR because of a work conflict). 
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: Jurgis on January 04, 2020, 08:15:33 PM
Silly question but does anyone have a good software tool or plugin to calculate this?  I add to my account throughout the year, so it's not a straightforward calculation.  I know IBKR has a tool for calculating your return vs SP500 over time, but my brokerage account does not (and I can't switch to IBKR because of a work conflict).

For anyone with multiple accounts and a lot of adding/subtracting you pretty much have to use Quicken. But that's heavyweight and not worth it unless you use it to track all your finances. On the positive side though, you can have results for 10+ years and then do a lot of analyses (per account, per securities, etc.). I have ~25 years of financial info in Quicken.

For people who don't do much adding/subtracting, you can do it by hand in Excel or Google Sheets or whatever spreadsheet you use. You can also do stuff in various programming languages/packages for programming inclined who might be slurping data in from some source.
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: LC on January 04, 2020, 08:55:44 PM
You can use excel but have to manually enter monthly balances and cash inflows/outflow per account, then combine to calculate IRR. Itís a pain so I just do it for the largest accounts.
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: EliG on January 04, 2020, 09:00:44 PM
Silly question but does anyone have a good software tool or plugin to calculate this?  I add to my account throughout the year, so it's not a straightforward calculation.  I know IBKR has a tool for calculating your return vs SP500 over time, but my brokerage account does not (and I can't switch to IBKR because of a work conflict).

Take a look at Bogleheads spreadsheet. It calculates time-weighted and money-weighted returns for up to 20 accounts.

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Calculating_personal_returns
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: Dynamic on January 05, 2020, 12:48:50 AM
Silly question but does anyone have a good software tool or plugin to calculate this?  I add to my account throughout the year, so it's not a straightforward calculation.  I know IBKR has a tool for calculating your return vs SP500 over time, but my brokerage account does not (and I can't switch to IBKR because of a work conflict).

The simplest way of getting roughly right answers for one year returns when you're adding money is using the following three figures:

A = money added during year (negative if money withdrawn)

S = starting valuation (31 Dec 2018 closing prices)

E = ending valuation (31 Dec 2019 closing prices)

ReturnX = ( (E - A) / S) - 1
This return is a fraction. Multiply by 100 to get a percentage.

ReturnY = ( E / ( S +A ) ) - 1
This return is a fraction. Multiply by 100 to get a percentage.

Return = 0.5 * ( ReturnX + ReturnY )
I.e. the average of the two calculations

ReturnX is the return assuming all the money was added on the last day of the year.

ReturnY is the return assuming all the money was added on the first day of the year.

Taking the average of the two is pretty accurate for typical spread of cash additions.

I've compared this to XIRR based on all my account ledgers and it's accurate enough.

For example if you started with $90,000 and added $10,000 and finished with $120,000 the calculation is:

A= 10,000
S= 90,000
E= 120,000

ReturnX = ( (120,000 - 10,000) / 90,000 ) - 1
= (110,000 - 90,000) - 1
=1.222222 - 1
=0.222222
This is 22.2222%

ReturnY = (120,000 / (90,000 + 10,000) ) - 1
=(120,000 / 100,000) - 1
=1.200000 - 1
=0.200000
This is 20.0000%

The average is 21.11%

That's accurate enough to answer this survey unless you know the cash inflows were heavily weighted to one end of the year.
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: bennycx on January 05, 2020, 03:47:25 AM
With leverage, gains 55%
Without leverage, gains 32%
Gains came from DVMT arbitrage (end 2018), AXP, USB and CFR (lucky to buy at 80+ levels, now stands at 40% of portfolio)
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: Hielko on January 05, 2020, 04:36:20 AM
Interesting to see that results on COBF are sort of distributed normally (as expected), but that the mean/average of this years returns seems to be significantly below the index with the most people having a 20-25% outcome, not one, but two steps below the option that includes the index return.
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: JRM on January 05, 2020, 05:12:01 AM
Interesting to see that results on COBF are sort of distributed normally (as expected), but that the mean/average of this years returns seems to be significantly below the index with the most people having a 20-25% outcome, not one, but two steps below the option that includes the index return.

I think risk adjusted return is much more important for comparison than absolute return over one year.  I could have levered up and gone 120% long SPY and sold puts on the SPY and generated "alpha" but I took on considerable risk.  Maybe somebody generated 20% but had 30% in cash or hedged.
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: Jurgis on January 05, 2020, 07:02:32 AM
Interesting to see that results on COBF are sort of distributed normally (as expected), but that the mean/average of this years returns seems to be significantly below the index with the most people having a 20-25% outcome, not one, but two steps below the option that includes the index return.

I think risk adjusted return is much more important for comparison than absolute return over one year.  I could have levered up and gone 120% long SPY and sold puts on the SPY and generated "alpha" but I took on considerable risk.  Maybe somebody generated 20% but had 30% in cash or hedged.

You are right on the general level. But IMO apart from very clear situations of straight levering or holding cash it's pretty impossible to say how much risk someone is taking and how to adjust the return for that risk.

Edit: Actually, I'd say that even in clear situation of holding cash, "risk adjusted return" is somewhat misleading. Ultimately, investor cannot eat "risk adjusted return". Whatever return they lost due to holding cash is lost. Yeah, they might have reasons to hold cash to improve future returns or to sleep well at night, but I think they have to careful not to think that high "risk adjusted return" is somehow real return.
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: Spekulatius on January 05, 2020, 07:30:11 AM
I find it interesting that so many people use leverage 10 years into a bull market. I was aggressive up to 2012, then again in late 2015 and at the end of 2018 but now I try to keep a healthy amount of cash to be able to pounce whenever I see some great setups.
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: SafetyinNumbers on January 05, 2020, 08:38:59 AM
I have always avoided leverage but find there are too many opportunities to sit in cash.

Usually when I feel this way, my portfolio is about to get a rude awakening.
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: clutch on January 05, 2020, 09:08:52 AM
Interesting to see that results on COBF are sort of distributed normally (as expected), but that the mean/average of this years returns seems to be significantly below the index with the most people having a 20-25% outcome, not one, but two steps below the option that includes the index return.

I think risk adjusted return is much more important for comparison than absolute return over one year.  I could have levered up and gone 120% long SPY and sold puts on the SPY and generated "alpha" but I took on considerable risk.  Maybe somebody generated 20% but had 30% in cash or hedged.

Only times I hear "risk adjusted return" is when a money manager justifies his lackluster performance due to holding too much cash. They never mention this when the performance is the other way around.
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: Gregmal on January 05, 2020, 09:33:02 AM
Interesting to see that results on COBF are sort of distributed normally (as expected), but that the mean/average of this years returns seems to be significantly below the index with the most people having a 20-25% outcome, not one, but two steps below the option that includes the index return.

I think risk adjusted return is much more important for comparison than absolute return over one year.  I could have levered up and gone 120% long SPY and sold puts on the SPY and generated "alpha" but I took on considerable risk.  Maybe somebody generated 20% but had 30% in cash or hedged.

Only times I hear "risk adjusted return" is when a money manager justifies his lackluster performance due to holding too much cash. They never mention this when the performance is the other way around.

Yup lol. Holding cash through 2019 was the WRONG move. Pretty black and white. Not really an honest way to rationalize it.
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: wabuffo on January 05, 2020, 10:17:20 AM
Interesting to see that ... the mean/average of this years returns seems to be significantly below the index with the most people having a 20-25% outcome, not one, but two steps below the option that includes the index return.

Hielko - not terribly surprising.  I think there are two reasons:

1) The average stock underperformed the big market-cap weighted indices (the FAANG influence).  I would guess the COB&F stock pickers are value pickers and generally are underinvested in FAANG. 

One way I measure the annual return of the average stock is to take a squint at the Wilshire Equal-Weight Indices.  The Wilshire Equal-Weight 5000 Index had a 28.9% return in 2019 (vs 31.05% for the S&P 500 Total Return).  So basically a bunch of monkeys throwing darts at the WSJ stock pages underperformed the S&P but still edged out the average COB&F value investors in 2019 by the looks of the self-reported survey.

2) The other factor that I think comes into play is BRK's underperformance.  Just like the COB&F value investors are underinvested in FAANG, they are probably overinvested in BRK and BRK underperformed the indices by a lot this year (e.g., BRK-B had a 10.9% annual return vs 31.05% for the S&P 500 TR).

wabuffo
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: cherzeca on January 05, 2020, 10:43:08 AM
"2) The other factor that I think comes into play is BRK's underperformance.  Just like the COB&F value investors are underinvested in FAANG, they are probably overinvested in BRK and BRK underperformed the indices by a lot this year (e.g., BRK-B had a 10.9% annual return vs 31.05% for the S&P 500 TR)."

agree, which is why I like to keep things simple with SPY for my non speculative stock portfolio.  balanced with >50% cash and 20% speculative equity
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: JRM on January 05, 2020, 11:18:10 AM
Interesting to see that results on COBF are sort of distributed normally (as expected), but that the mean/average of this years returns seems to be significantly below the index with the most people having a 20-25% outcome, not one, but two steps below the option that includes the index return.

I think risk adjusted return is much more important for comparison than absolute return over one year.  I could have levered up and gone 120% long SPY and sold puts on the SPY and generated "alpha" but I took on considerable risk.  Maybe somebody generated 20% but had 30% in cash or hedged.

Only times I hear "risk adjusted return" is when a money manager justifies his lackluster performance due to holding too much cash. They never mention this when the performance is the other way around.

Yup lol. Holding cash through 2019 was the WRONG move. Pretty black and white. Not really an honest way to rationalize it.

I'm not complaining.  I had over 20% cash at the end of the year and still beat most indexes.  I've already invested half of that cash, so its somewhat irrelevant.  The type of risk adjusting I'm talking about is difficult to quantify, but you probably already knew that. 
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: Munger_Disciple on January 05, 2020, 11:25:34 AM

Hielko - not terribly surprising.  I think there are two reasons:

1) The average stock underperformed the big market-cap weighted indices (the FAANG influence).  I would guess the COB&F stock pickers are value pickers and generally are underinvested in FAANG. 

One way I measure the annual return of the average stock is to take a squint at the Wilshire Equal-Weight Indices.  The Wilshire Equal-Weight 5000 Index had a 28.9% return in 2019 (vs 31.05% for the S&P 500 Total Return).  So basically a bunch of monkeys throwing darts at the WSJ stock pages underperformed the S&P but still edged out the average COB&F value investors in 2019 by the looks of the self-reported survey.

2) The other factor that I think comes into play is BRK's underperformance.  Just like the COB&F value investors are underinvested in FAANG, they are probably overinvested in BRK and BRK underperformed the indices by a lot this year (e.g., BRK-B had a 10.9% annual return vs 31.05% for the S&P 500 TR).

wabuffo

Good points. Not a big deal, but minor correction:  S&P 500 TR for 2019 was 31.49%.
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: wabuffo on January 05, 2020, 12:04:22 PM
Not a big deal, but minor correction:  S&P 500 TR for 2019 was 31.49%.

Yes - you are correct.  Sorry about that, I had an error in my spreadsheet.  Thanks for pointing it out!

wabuffo
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: John Hjorth on January 05, 2020, 12:30:53 PM
Related to Wabuffo's post # 48 (https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/cobf-members-2019-returns/msg391980/#msg391980), we had a poll (https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/berkshire-hathaway/are-you-a-berkshire-hathaway-inc-investor/) about a year ago - actually on January 9th 2019 - which documented that a large part of the active voters in that poll was Berkshire investors, and then again a quite large part of the voters with large amounts of capital [as percentage] allocated long Berkshire.

At least to me personally, it's quite clearly documented by many of those investors here on CoBF [observed by reading their posts - simple as that], that the orientation and line of thinking among those board members is truly long term. It's to me also evident, that at least a part of those board members are accumulating Berkshire shares on an ongoing basis [as net savers].

So they may have taken this poll, but they actually don't care about a year of relative underperformance for Berkshire relative to the market [because of long term thinking], perhaps even instead considering it a relative opportunity for accumulation of more shares.
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: EliG on January 05, 2020, 03:10:46 PM
It's impossible to interpret the poll results without knowing the reporting currencies.

This forum has a sizable Canadian membership. Most Canadian investors I know measure their performance in Canadian dollars. In 2019, Canadian dollar appreciated ~5% vs the US dollar. Currency appreciation creates a performance headwind.

S&P 500 TR for 2019:

* measured in USD: +31.49%
* measured in CAD: +25.2%

Consider a Canadian portfolio that returned, say, +28% in 2019. Without knowing the reporting currency, we can't judge the performance.

+28% measured in CAD means 3% outperformance.
+28% measured in USD means 3% underperformance.

To get more meaningful results next year, require that everyone reports in USD. That means more work for the non-US investors; you may end up getting fewer responses.
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: rolling on January 09, 2020, 05:06:12 AM
2ndhalf 2011 and 2012:  20%
2013: 30%
2014: 50%
2015: less 5%
2016: 50%
2017: 160-170%
2018: 11% (It seems it was 6% if I exclude an year end wuote manipulation, but I will take the 11% because it is easier to do the math and the 2019 return will adust for that)
2019: 0.6% (I had to use 02/01/2020 quote due to year end portfolio movements, return would have been sligtly lower, probably around zero)

Results are in euro, before taxes but after all other costs.

Note: I thought I had lost about 5%... Nothing like a year end review to get morale up

note2: I am now much happier. Portfolio is much cheaper than last year, and it seems I didn't lose money
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: Dynamic on January 09, 2020, 05:33:52 AM
2ndhalf 2011 and 2012:  20%
2013: 30%
2014: 50%
2015: less 5%
2016: 50%
2017: 160-170%
2018: 11% (It seems it was 6% if I exclude an year end wuote manipulation, but I will take the 11% because it is easier to do the math and the 2019 return will adust for that)
2019: 0.6% (I had to use 02/01/2020 quote due to year end portfolio movements, return would have been sligtly lower, probably around zero)

Results are in euro, before taxes but after all other costs.

Note: I thought I had lost about 5%... Nothing like a year end review to get morale up

note2: I am now much happier. Portfolio is much cheaper than last year, and it seems I didn't lose money

Wow, that's a great example of "who cares about lumpy returns if you're earning 30%+ annualized on average".

Multiplying your rough returns, you probably turned every Ä100 into about Ä1065 over the course of around 8.5 years. That would be about 32% compound annualized return (with a few percent margin of error I imagine, given that the early numbers are very approximate). Also great that you haven't lost money.
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: rolling on January 09, 2020, 10:24:25 AM
2ndhalf 2011 and 2012:  20%
2013: 30%
2014: 50%
2015: less 5%
2016: 50%
2017: 160-170%
2018: 11% (It seems it was 6% if I exclude an year end wuote manipulation, but I will take the 11% because it is easier to do the math and the 2019 return will adust for that)
2019: 0.6% (I had to use 02/01/2020 quote due to year end portfolio movements, return would have been sligtly lower, probably around zero)

Results are in euro, before taxes but after all other costs.

Note: I thought I had lost about 5%... Nothing like a year end review to get morale up

note2: I am now much happier. Portfolio is much cheaper than last year, and it seems I didn't lose money

Wow, that's a great example of "who cares about lumpy returns if you're earning 30%+ annualized on average".

Multiplying your rough returns, you probably turned every Ä100 into about Ä1065 over the course of around 8.5 years. That would be about 32% compound annualized return (with a few percent margin of error I imagine, given that the early numbers are very approximate). Also great that you haven't lost money.
Thank you: had been thinking on doing the math but never actually got myself up to it. You should be roughly right since there is little approximation on those results. Some points:
1) taxes play a big role: over here 28% on dividends and all capital gains.
2) A very small base also masquers those returns
3) a kid at year end 2017 and another in 2019 probably are partially responsible for the last 2 years returns: Perhaps I should have just indexed from then on.

What keeps me now from indexing:
1- multi year high for american stocks
2- high conviction on the cheapness of my current portfolio

Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: writser on January 09, 2020, 10:33:15 AM
Just got back from vacation, did some administrative work today. 2019 return: 29.05% (in EUR), give or take a few basis points. Returns since I started doing this full-time:

2014: 17.51%
2015: 11.89%
2016: 36.96%
2017: 22.86%
2018: 15.41%
2019: 29.05%

About 22% annualized. Everything in EUR. Numbers might be slightly different than posted in previous years because I made a small retroactive change in how I treat tax credits generated by my portfolio. I only pay a flat wealth tax and use tax credits to offset most of it, so my performance is basically net of taxes. As in previous years, I think my headline number is conservative. I have acquired a nice collection of CVR's, liquidation trusts, escrows, tax refunds and other untradable stuff over the years. My brokers (and thus I, for wealth tax purposes) value most of these assets at cost or zero and in terms of fair value that is too low. In particular, I have a large Sapec (https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/sap-br-sapec-sa/) tax refund incoming in a few weeks, valued at zero. That should add another ~2% to my performance. And as another example, one of my largest positions this year was IAM.TO (https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/iam-to-integrated-asset-management/). So I have a decent position in the IAM CVR, valued at zero, but I think it is very likely that it is worth significantly more. Anyway, bla bla bla. Just saying that you should take the headline numbers of individual years with a grain of salt. Also, some of my positions are so illiquid that they can swing around 10% or 20% in a single trade.

A bit of reflection: I'm quite happy with how the year went. I'd like to think that I have a reasonably conservative portfolio with not a super high beta. No high-conviction huge positions. Lots of special situations, some deep value stuff, no leverage and usually a 5% - 15% cash position. 50+ positions, very high turnover. Largest individual position < 5% at the moment. Not your typical 'punchcard' portfolio. I'm skeptical about my abilities and like to spread my eggs. That way I don't blow up if I make a few horrible mistakes. Also, it keeps me busy and I enjoy it :) . Long term I'd be extremely happy if my portfolio returns around 10% with a bit less volatility than the market. So far I'm doing way better than that. This year in particular was nice: I don't expect at all to keep up with the market in a year in which it is up ~30% but I managed to minimize the damage. Of course that might mean that I am simply taking way more risk than I am aware of ..

Finally, some highlights this year: I was involved in a few individual trades this year where I am 99.99% sure I generated significant alpha and where that alpha materialized in a few minutes / hours / days. A few of them were very satisfying. Usually it is close to impossible to determine whether you have an edge on the market. Trades like these give me a bit of confidence I'm doing something right. I am very content with my track record in Italian real estate funds (link (https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/qfdi-fondo-delta-(italian-real-estate)/30/)). The past four years my basket appproach and opportunistic trades in this space generated a >20% IRR with a large sample size. ASFI was a deep-value idea that worked out perfectly this year. ATXI was a very enjoyable and profitable stock to analyse and trade around. Same for SMTA. BMY rights were also very interesting to look at. They appreciated 50% already since the merger close a few weeks ago. A situation I'm going to track closely in 2020. Finally, by far the most enjoyable special situation of 2019 was becoming a father.

And some lows: I underperformed my personal benchmark (https://alphavulture.com/2020/01/06/2019-end-of-year-portfolio-review/) again .. I'm a bit sloppier and lazier than the benchmark. Also, I'm too stubborn / stupid to analyse / buy stuff that is basically more expensive than net cash. Hemacare, XPel, Viemed, GAN PLC were very solid ideas but I just can't get comfortable with ideas like those. I have owned Hemacare on and off during the past few years (it has been a 100x bagger) but whenever it is up 20% in a few days I sell my position, only to regret it later. I said last year that I should try to improve a bit in that area but I'm basically still an utter bottom-scraper (though up to some point it is also a style difference that I can live with). Something similar happened with ATXI and ASFI this year. My theses were correct, I made some good money but I think I should have been more patient with letting the theses run their course, rather than start selling as soon a a stock is up X%. Something to work on (again) in 2020 .. Also, PACB (https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/pacb-pacific-biosciences-of-california/) was only a small position for me but probably one that I entered when I hadn't done my homework as well as the rest of the market. In general I have the tendency to buy small positions too aggressively and size my best ideas too passively. I think sizing is one of the most difficult parts of investing. Another low: I posted a few times in the politics section. Fuck me.
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: hillfronter83 on January 09, 2020, 11:01:09 AM
Big congrats on very solid results, especially on the following :):

Finally, by far the most enjoyable special situation of 2019 was becoming a father.


BMY management came out today saying there is very good chance CVR will pay out. The price is approaching "fair value" (75% chance for each drug to get approved, I trimmed some.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/09/reuters-america-bristol-myers-confident-of-approvals-linked-to-higher-celgene-investor-payout-bristol-exec.html


Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: John Hjorth on January 09, 2020, 01:00:43 PM
Finally, by far the most enjoyable special situation of 2019 was becoming a father.

What writser does - and gets away with, somehow always has been a mystery to me! [Congrats to some outstanding returns over the years & congrats on the family extension!]

- - - o 0 o - - -

CoBF is however pretty relentless : Have you looked into : EAC.CPH recently? [Your game!]
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: Schwab711 on January 09, 2020, 01:10:08 PM
Just got back from vacation, did some administrative work today. 2019 return: 29.05% (in EUR), give or take a few basis points. Returns since I started doing this full-time:

2014: 17.51%
2015: 11.89%
2016: 36.96%
2017: 22.86%
2018: 15.41%
2019: 29.05%


I'm only surprised that you've dipped below 20% before. Really impressive returns, especially considering your strategy! Congratulations on Baby Writser!
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: stahleyp on January 09, 2020, 01:56:51 PM
congrats on the baby! My returns really started to suck after having the 2nd one in 2018.  I'm indexing more and more these days (for better or worse). With work and sleep deprivation I figure it's probably for the best.
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: Jurgis on January 09, 2020, 04:59:54 PM
IMO Writser is currently the best investor on CoBF.  8)

- He is consistently outperforming.
- He has a clear repeatable process.
- He posts his ideas with clear exposition of pros/cons.
- He is mostly open about his picks/buys/sells even though some of them are low liquidity.
- It is possible to follow his process without missing significant parts of his portfolio.
- It is clear why his process and his picks can/should outperform.
- His picks are not market correlated and not momo or hedge-fund or value-investing hotels.
- His portfolio is diversified and not concentrated into few picks that can blow up.

If I was forced to read posts of one person only, I'd pick Writser.
Even though I don't invest like him and I don't buy >90% of his picks.  ::)
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: BG2008 on January 09, 2020, 06:12:12 PM
IMO Writser is currently the best investor on CoBF.  8)

- He is consistently outperforming.
- He has a clear repeatable process.
- He posts his ideas with clear exposition of pros/cons.
- He is mostly open about his picks/buys/sells even though some of them are low liquidity.
- It is possible to follow his process without missing significant parts of his portfolio.
- It is clear why his process and his picks can/should outperform.
- His picks are not market correlated and not momo or hedge-fund or value-investing hotels.
- His portfolio is diversified and not concentrated into few picks that can blow up.

If I was forced to read posts of one person only, I'd pick Writser.
Even though I don't invest like him and I don't buy >90% of his picks.  ::)
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: writser on January 10, 2020, 01:01:04 AM
Thanks for the kind words all. Not sure I deserve them. My portfolio should withstand a big crisis first. Some shameless self-promotion: last year I've been shifting some stock discussion to Twitter instead of CoBF. I think it's a decent platform to share some real-time thoughts about stocks and the stock market. @thewritser.

Even though I don't invest like him and I don't buy >90% of his picks.  ::)
Jet lagged and deprived of sleep after a return flight from a tropical island I read 'even though I don't like him'. Which would have been totally understandable but is fortunately not the case.

Have you looked into : EAC.CPH recently? [Your game!]
I took a quick peek. Seems cheapish indeed but with a ~$3.5m mcap overhead will quickly erode any value (even though it is only estimated to be $300k / year, which many American nanocaps can only dream about .. ). Even more importantly, I am unqualified to say anything sensible about the ongoing tax disputes. Given that the company implies that losing these cases causes 'significant uncertainty around the company's going concern' I feel like I can quickly discard this company until the transfer tax issues have been clarified. In my limited experience, when a tax authority is interested in suing you they can make life very difficult for you for a very long time. Not to mention legal costs when your market cap is $3.5m. FWIW, this seems like a company with a cool history (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santa_Fe_Group).

Also, I forgot to mention one of the more stinging lows of the year that demonstrates what an idiot I sometimes am. During H2 2019 I was notified about a liquidating real estate fund (non-US) that supposedly was attractive. I did some reading, looked at the latest quarterly, modelled the liquidation and yes: it looked quite attractive indeed. I quickly bought a decent position as shares weren't trading frequently and there was a bit of a time constraint. The next day I found out that some non-current liabilities were on the next page in the quarterly. Never bothered to flip the page or do some very basic calculations .. Idiotic. I quickly updated my model. Guess what: shares were actually reasonably priced. Instead of trying to sell my position (which was a bit difficult: again, an illiquid name) I said to myself: Writser, you are actually being too conservative with your estimate of liquidating costs. Also your estimate of rental income is probably a bit too low. I fiddled a bit with the numbers so I could just about convince myself that holding was slightly more attractive than selling. Needless to say, a few days later the company came with new guidance that was 100% in line with my model before I started tinkering with it and shares dropped a few percent. In the end the whole situation turned out great but the process was a disaster. Forgetting a page of the financials: terrible. Doubling down on your mistake: unforgivable.

Now let's get this thread back on topic.
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: generalsandworkouts on January 10, 2020, 11:45:40 PM
I was up 21.38% in 2019, including franking tax credits we get here in Australia. I started tracking my performance properly a couple of years ago. I was up 10.94% in 2018 and 5.97% for August-December 2017. Biggest winner for me in 2019 was a stock called Open Orphan (formerly Venn Life Sciences), which I bought as a net-net after a recommendation from a friend. It's now up >280%. (I run a pretty diversified portfolio so even after that gain it's a ~10% position.) I also made a lot of dumb mistakes. The good news is there's still plenty of room for improvement.
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: John Hjorth on January 11, 2020, 12:14:50 AM
Welcome to CoBF, generalsandworkouts! [ : - ) ]
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: NewbieD on January 12, 2020, 02:11:49 AM
+28%. First year since 2011 that I didnít beat my index (OMS All-Share cap GI) with >10% and actually lagged. A bit too defensive, estimate 75% net long and had one conviction bet go down 30%.
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: CorpRaider on January 14, 2020, 11:03:52 AM
For a point of reference QVAL was up 23.52% in 2019 (NAV); IVAL 20.59% (NAV).
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: rkbabang on January 14, 2020, 11:50:09 AM
27.83%  for 2019*.  Underperformed the S&P500, but I'll take it.

I sold about 10% of my portfolio to invest in a piece of real estate in July and some of the stocks I sold did well the second half of the year, so that probably hurt me some.  Also POEFF going way down in December (from ~US$2 to US$0.80) hurt my returns.

*EDIT:  Changed 2020 to 2019. I was getting ahead of myself I guess.
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: John Hjorth on January 16, 2020, 09:28:21 AM
Friendly & polite bump! [ : - ) ] [At total members voted : 209.]
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: DooDiligence on January 21, 2020, 06:44:11 AM
20.8% in brokerage
22.4% in 401K

I thought I'd get to keep my worthless reminder of
misplaced trust in Eike Batista, but those shares
finally disappeared.

Should've gotten a paper certificate to frame.
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: John Hjorth on January 29, 2020, 01:39:32 PM
Friendly & polite bump! [ : - ) ] [At total members voted : 217.]
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: Castanza on January 31, 2020, 08:19:59 AM
31.2% Brokerage (much thanks to MSFT)
23.7% Roth
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: sundin on January 31, 2020, 08:51:02 AM
~ 38% (not counting dividends)

Thanks to CHTR/BAM both being 20%/25% positions at BV.
Title: Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
Post by: John Hjorth on February 05, 2020, 10:32:15 AM
211 votes as of now. [I suppose for 2019 we won't come even close to the number of votes reached for 2018 - 264 votes.]