Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 20778 times)

muscleman

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #180 on: February 09, 2020, 06:45:04 AM »
Quote
Really? Can burning body cause so much smog? I heard there are only 3-4 funeral facilities.
my understanding is that there are 7 plus another one for muslims.
http://mzj.wuhan.gov.cn/bmcx/166448.jhtml
I did some research and I think the average daily death is around 500. It is based on the INCREASE of death from regular periods and based on a call I listened to on YouTube from a journalist to the funeral. Note that most of these body burning facilities have small capacity so you can’t take one number and multiply by 8.
I am muslceman. I have more muscle than brain!


SharperDingaan

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #181 on: February 09, 2020, 09:12:27 AM »
China is just trying to put its best face forward. 
But like lipstick on a pig - it looks way better from far away, than it does up close.

Comes Monday the quarantine period is supposedly up for the 33M+ quarantined over Luna New Year.
Yet ...  https://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCAKBN2020SN

"China’s cabinet said on Sunday it would coordinate with transport authorities to ensure the smooth return to work of employees in key industries such as food and medicines. The State Council’s special coronavirus group also said workers should return in “batches”, rather than all at once, in order to reduce infection risks."

"Authorities had told businesses to tack up to 10 extra days on to holidays that had been due to finish at the end of January and some restrictions continued. We all know we can’t purchase masks anywhere, why are we still going back to work?” said a second.

"Hebei province, which surrounds Beijing, will keep schools shut until March 1, the People’s Daily newspaper said. Several provinces have shut schools until the end of February." Universities are doing something similar.

To most people, it would appear that the mass quarantine is being extended until the end of february. The short supply of masks also very likely being rationed to just those returning batches of workers in food and medicines (or essential services), as added incentive to return to work. Most would also recognize that these are essentially war-time measures, and that they would not have been implemented were the fallout not serious.

To China's credit it is a one-party state, and the party has acted both rapidly, effectively, and forcefully.
This level of intervention, and message control, could not have been executed as rapidly in a Western democracy. Ultimately, the final body count may well be a lot lower than it otherwise might have been, because the epi-center was in China. Credit, where it is due.

SD



sleepydragon

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #182 on: February 09, 2020, 02:39:40 PM »

Tuxedostyle

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #183 on: February 10, 2020, 09:38:54 AM »

lnofeisone

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #184 on: February 10, 2020, 10:58:59 AM »
Very interesting...

https://twitter.com/InvestSpecial/status/1226920634040692736

Maybe I'm missing something.
1) Someone showed off their 9th grade skill at using Excel and getting a best fit line
2) Reddit peanut gallery is now cheering on every day that the model gets the number approximately correct

If this were a legitimate model I'd expect a lot more metrics (root mean square and mean absolute errors at a minimum), time dependency, cure rate, etc. I can also guarantee that the model shown and the equation are wrong.

Liberty

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"Most haystacks don't even have a needle." |  I'm on Twitter  | This podcast episode is a must-listen

LongHaul

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #186 on: February 12, 2020, 09:38:28 AM »

LongHaul

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #187 on: February 12, 2020, 09:58:29 AM »
Great article that claims China is lying

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871783

Assuming the current Crematoriums burned 60,000 bodies year in Wuhan which is ~1,150 per week then an additional
120 or so per week would not be such a big deal - An extra 10% burning.  High probability that the Chinese government is totally full of shit.

i like this article for data
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak
« Last Edit: February 12, 2020, 10:01:53 AM by LongHaul »

zippy1

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #188 on: February 13, 2020, 02:09:25 PM »
China’s Coronavirus Numbers Don’t Add Up. Here’s How We Know.
Quote
Anomalies had shown up in China’s coronavirus numbers even before the change in methodology. For instance, the number of deaths reported appeared to correspond to a simple mathematical formula to a very high accuracy, according to a quantitative-finance specialist who ran a regression of the data for Barron’s. A near-perfect 99.99% of variance is explained by the equation, this person said, referring to a statistical measure known as r-squared. That’s a fancy way of saying that the data updating the number of deaths was almost perfectly predictable. “This never happens with real data, which is always noisy,” the person said.
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Barron’s re-created the regression analysis of total deaths caused by the virus, which first emerged in the central Chinese city of Wuhan at the end of last year, and found the same variance. We ran it by Melody Goodman, associate professor of biostatistics at New York University’s School of Global Public Health.

“I have never in my years seen an r-squared of 0.99,” Goodman said. “As a statistician it makes me question the data.”

For context, Goodman said a “really good” r-squared, in terms of public health data, would be a 0.7. “Anything like 0.99,” she said “would make me think that someone is simulating data. It would mean you already know what is going to happen.”
https://www.barrons.com/articles/chinas-economic-data-have-always-raised-questions-its-coronavirus-numbers-do-too-51581622840

abyli

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #189 on: February 14, 2020, 05:48:34 AM »
We all know it is fake number, remember, it is China!

China’s Coronavirus Numbers Don’t Add Up. Here’s How We Know.
Quote
Anomalies had shown up in China’s coronavirus numbers even before the change in methodology. For instance, the number of deaths reported appeared to correspond to a simple mathematical formula to a very high accuracy, according to a quantitative-finance specialist who ran a regression of the data for Barron’s. A near-perfect 99.99% of variance is explained by the equation, this person said, referring to a statistical measure known as r-squared. That’s a fancy way of saying that the data updating the number of deaths was almost perfectly predictable. “This never happens with real data, which is always noisy,” the person said.
Quote
Barron’s re-created the regression analysis of total deaths caused by the virus, which first emerged in the central Chinese city of Wuhan at the end of last year, and found the same variance. We ran it by Melody Goodman, associate professor of biostatistics at New York University’s School of Global Public Health.

“I have never in my years seen an r-squared of 0.99,” Goodman said. “As a statistician it makes me question the data.”

For context, Goodman said a “really good” r-squared, in terms of public health data, would be a 0.7. “Anything like 0.99,” she said “would make me think that someone is simulating data. It would mean you already know what is going to happen.”
https://www.barrons.com/articles/chinas-economic-data-have-always-raised-questions-its-coronavirus-numbers-do-too-51581622840