Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 233590 times)

Liberty

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #2480 on: March 25, 2020, 01:55:35 PM »
Given that Trump's business interests have been directly excluded from the bailout/stimulus, does that make him more or less likely to undermine social distancing?

There's a global pandemic going on, people are dying, suffering, but it's still all about him:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1242905328209080331?s=20

Decisions never explained from data or logic, just whatever his wishful thinking of the moment is and whatís best for him. And in what should be a unifying moment where we all pull together, heís somehow managed to make it super political and divisive.

He's more likely to end it now, since his hotels need customers even more. Unintended consequences.
« Last Edit: March 25, 2020, 02:12:52 PM by Liberty »
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Liberty

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #2481 on: March 25, 2020, 02:01:44 PM »
Given that Trump's business interests have been directly excluded from the bailout/stimulus, does that make him more or less likely to undermine social distancing?

More likely. The optimal outcome for the economy is to get everyone sick over the next 2-3 months, let all the old people die (they don't contribute much to the economy anyway), and then have life revert to normal when everyone has herd immunity.

Life revert to normal after that? lol
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RichardGibbons

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #2482 on: March 25, 2020, 02:19:19 PM »
Life revert to normal after that? lol

Well, not totally--some businesses won't survive.  But if we literally get everyone infected in 2 months and all those infections resolved in 3 months, then there really isn't anything to worry about (economically speaking) after that.  I think the faster this happens, the smaller the economic second-order effects, and the more businesses will survive.  Even if bad stuff remains economically, it's much easier to, say, do bridge financing after it's clear the pandemic has run its course and customers have returned to the business.

I'm putting aside the millions of deaths as not mattering that much to the economy, and not having that many second-order effects.

(Also, I'm not suggesting this is what should happen. I'm saying, "if I were a psycho trying to do nothing but maximize economic outcomes and taking nothing else into account, that's what I'd do.")

ERICOPOLY

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #2483 on: March 25, 2020, 02:28:29 PM »
The question isn't what Richard would do if he were a psycho, it's what Trump would do if he were a psycho.

Spekulatius

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #2484 on: March 25, 2020, 02:47:52 PM »
Ackman; https://pershingsquareholdings.com/pershing-square-capital-management-l-p-releases-letter-to-investors/

So...it looks like this guy held CDS and went on CNBC last week and had a meltdown about the crisis. Then unloaded the CDS Monday and went long stocks and back on CNBC (edit: Bloomberg on Tuesday) touting that everything is going to be ok. How is this remotely allowed/ethical?

He brought talking his book to a new level.

Lol...makes you respect people like WEB and Munger that much more because they don't engage in such despicable antics and still outperform these scumbags.

He was totally transparent about his position at all times.  You are allowed to have an opinion - and I have agreed with his opinion all along.

Doesn't matter if his opinion was right or wrong. He has a long track record of taking positions and then going on media outlets pounding out his thesis. One big example is Herbalife short position. So, taking a short and then going on CNBC and trashing it repeatedly. May not be illegal, but certainly not noble behavior. There are many investors out there who do not resort to such tactics that outperform this guy significantly.

Could not agree more. This guy is a complete turd ball...comes on TV ..starts crying about his Dad and shows concern and all that...I can't believe how pathetic he is. Where was the crying when he was trying to fkover a lot of diseased patients when he was all in on Valeant...he is just a pathetic human being.

I agree, he has shown questionable character all along- just look up Gotham Partner blowup. Then his fake moral display is just to much. He is just a guy talking his book.
« Last Edit: March 25, 2020, 02:53:28 PM by Spekulatius »
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Jurgis

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #2485 on: March 25, 2020, 02:56:37 PM »
I have a great business idea.

Just point fans away from the hat and fans would blow away any viruses coming towards a person.
This is insta profit.
You can thank me later.
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thepupil

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #2486 on: March 25, 2020, 03:02:58 PM »
Ackman; https://pershingsquareholdings.com/pershing-square-capital-management-l-p-releases-letter-to-investors/

So...it looks like this guy held CDS and went on CNBC last week and had a meltdown about the crisis. Then unloaded the CDS Monday and went long stocks and back on CNBC (edit: Bloomberg on Tuesday) touting that everything is going to be ok. How is this remotely allowed/ethical?

He brought talking his book to a new level.

Lol...makes you respect people like WEB and Munger that much more because they don't engage in such despicable antics and still outperform these scumbags.

He was totally transparent about his position at all times.  You are allowed to have an opinion - and I have agreed with his opinion all along.

Doesn't matter if his opinion was right or wrong. He has a long track record of taking positions and then going on media outlets pounding out his thesis. One big example is Herbalife short position. So, taking a short and then going on CNBC and trashing it repeatedly. May not be illegal, but certainly not noble behavior. There are many investors out there who do not resort to such tactics that outperform this guy significantly.

Could not agree more. This guy is a complete turd ball...comes on TV ..starts crying about his Dad and shows concern and all that...I can't believe how pathetic he is. Where was the crying when he was trying to fkover a lot of diseased patients when he was all in on Valeant...he is just a pathetic human being.

I agree, he has shown questionable character all along- just look up Gotham Partner blowup. Then his fake moral display is just to much. He is just a guy talking his book.

Ackman was early to identify a scenario not priced in the credit markets, bought a convex hedge, and protected his LPís capital. As a very small LP PSHNA via I appreciate that very much. I think he truly believes in pretty mich everything he does whether it be Herbalife Valeant or his successes. The guy is dedicated, passionate, and his brain is worth more than a 40% discount to NAV.

He was literally short indices, not talking down a company.

He didnít force levered holders of structured credit and mortgages to blow up. He didnít force anyone to sell their stocks.


#teamackman
« Last Edit: March 25, 2020, 03:06:09 PM by thepupil »

Spekulatius

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #2487 on: March 25, 2020, 03:05:13 PM »
Given that Trump's business interests have been directly excluded from the bailout/stimulus, does that make him more or less likely to undermine social distancing?

More likely. The optimal outcome for the economy is to get everyone sick over the next 2-3 months, let all the old people die (they don't contribute much to the economy anyway), and then have life revert to normal when everyone has herd immunity.

Life revert to normal after that? lol

Other than the US becoming a 2nd world country basically. The second order effects of this would be quite unwelcome, I think.

That said we need to think when and how the US is going back to work and tentative timelines for this. It’s  got a be a step by  step process, because if everyone rushes into a church on Easter to sing kumbajah in each other faces it pretty much guarantees  another epidemic.

I think what needs to be created is massive amount of rapid testing capacity they can be available in short order. he should get a task force to get this I talked in short order, with folks working 24/7 on this. maybe use his 1950 war req. law to get companies to do this or offer billions in contract. Whatever it takes. The quicker we have this system in place and the more we know exactly what we are dealing with epidemically, the faster we can turn on the economy and get people to work with minimal risk and fight flare ups.
« Last Edit: March 25, 2020, 03:07:01 PM by Spekulatius »
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Liberty

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Liberty

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #2489 on: March 25, 2020, 03:17:48 PM »
The question isn't what Richard would do if he were a psycho, it's what Trump would do if he were a psycho.

Total US casualties in WWII were 1,076,245 according to Wikipedia. Guy thinks this is just some band aid that needs to be ripped off and the economy would be fine.. Second order effects would destroy it. Healthcare system would be destroyed, mortality for the young would be way high because they couldn't get care, etc. And even if you don't die, if you end up in the hospital and ICU and have permanent damage, that's economic too.

https://twitter.com/T_Inglesby/status/1242237107369902080?s=20
« Last Edit: March 25, 2020, 03:29:37 PM by Liberty »
"Most haystacks don't even have a needle." |  I'm on Twitter  | This podcast episode is a must-listen