Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 542960 times)

muscleman

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #30 on: January 24, 2020, 09:59:26 PM »
Take photos, spread the news. The world needs to know the humanitarian crisis that is developing. If this as bad as it sounds, it will need a coordinated effort to solve.

Plenty of photos here collected by abyli. Empty supply bins for masks, gloves and eye goggles.
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/r0MgCEtpYRocZECSPcpDXA

I also have photos of dead bodies on the ground in the hospital for hours with no one taking care of. They are covered by white cloth so I can tell they are already dead.
While at the same time, I have a photo of the Provincial Governor on TV saying that they have plenty of supply and there is nothing to worry about!
I am muslceman. I have more muscle than brain!


fareastwarriors

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #31 on: January 24, 2020, 11:03:11 PM »
Take photos, spread the news. The world needs to know the humanitarian crisis that is developing. If this as bad as it sounds, it will need a coordinated effort to solve.

Plenty of photos here collected by abyli. Empty supply bins for masks, gloves and eye goggles.
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/r0MgCEtpYRocZECSPcpDXA

I also have photos of dead bodies on the ground in the hospital for hours with no one taking care of. They are covered by white cloth so I can tell they are already dead.
While at the same time, I have a photo of the Provincial Governor on TV saying that they have plenty of supply and there is nothing to worry about!

I hope your relatives will be okay. I'm a fob myself and have plenty of relatives there but in Guangdong.

People outside of China don't know, but you can't really trust anything there.
Stay safe people!

Cigarbutt

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #32 on: January 25, 2020, 04:29:22 AM »
As with many phenomena, there are fundamental and sentimental aspects. There is an underlying core of real disease activity and potential outcomes with, in the early stages, a potentially significant amount of uncertainty. The role of public authority is paramount but difficult. Vigilance needs to be raised but mass hysteria is just around the corner. The most relevant comparable is the SARS episode (2002-3). It's interesting to remember that the 'crisis' had revealed weak aspects of China's governance resulting in a significant turnover in high level officials. China then was criticized for hesitations and lack of transparency. I wonder if they are not doing too much in a way (massive quarantine orders, building a hospital in a few days). It's also interesting to remember that, during the SARS epidemic, Vietnam had done much better than Canada, in terms of handling the fundamental and sentimental aspects of the problem, despite allocating much less ressources.

If you have a personal connection somehow, some part of the information-gathering exercise should perhaps involve periodic checks on official sites (CDC-like etc) and a review of the SARS episode may provide some perspective.
https://www.who.int/whr/2003/en/Chapter5.pdf
If you don't have a personal connection and feel anxiety, nonspecific internet exposure may not be the best way to alleviate concerns.

SharperDingaan

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #33 on: January 25, 2020, 05:07:57 AM »
Some things to keep in mind:

This is China. Asian culture.
We may think it out of place in this situation, but 'face saving' will be a material factor.

Building a 1,000 bed hospital in a week, really means a big cluster of multiple tents and MASH units, in one place. Behind closed tent, isolation wards and morgues in one big city. Where are the rest of them? and where are the pictures of the 'cured' people walking out of them? 

Canceling new year, clamping down on chunyun, quaranteing 30M people in major cities, is not a minor response. It is what was typically done in Europe, during plague and cholera outbreaks. Medicine, and our response to outbreaks is a lot better today, but there are still a lot of bodies. Limits ability to contain panic. 

A published, and fully decoded viral gene sequence within days is unusual. Could be just serendipity and hard work, but it could also be something already known, that escaped a lab somewhere. We will never know, but assume the worst.

The Asian Development Bank looked at the economic impact of SARS in a number of East and Southeast Asian economies, and explored the short-term economic impact of SARS as well as the channels through which the Impact of SARS was felt. Page 2 of the report; The impact of SARS critically depends on (i) the seriousness of SARS, (ii) the duration of SARS, and (iii) the structure of an economy, particularly the importance of service industries in GDP. https://www.adb.org/publications/sars-economic-impacts-and-implications

In 2020, we are probably looking at LESS of an economic impact. Nervousness spread by internet, just makes it look scarier.
Yet according to some markets ... the Chinese economy is about to fall apart because of this?
Opportunity is knocking?

SD
« Last Edit: January 25, 2020, 07:02:34 AM by SharperDingaan »

Spekulatius

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #34 on: January 25, 2020, 07:12:20 AM »
Take photos, spread the news. The world needs to know the humanitarian crisis that is developing. If this as bad as it sounds, it will need a coordinated effort to solve.

Plenty of photos here collected by abyli. Empty supply bins for masks, gloves and eye goggles.
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/r0MgCEtpYRocZECSPcpDXA

I also have photos of dead bodies on the ground in the hospital for hours with no one taking care of. They are covered by white cloth so I can tell they are already dead.
While at the same time, I have a photo of the Provincial Governor on TV saying that they have plenty of supply and there is nothing to worry about!

Best of wishes to your relatives. My wife (who speaks some Chinese) also looked at some news and told me that it looks quite concerning and that I should look into 3M stock.
Life is too short for cheap beer and wine.

Castanza

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #35 on: January 25, 2020, 07:24:49 AM »
Take photos, spread the news. The world needs to know the humanitarian crisis that is developing. If this as bad as it sounds, it will need a coordinated effort to solve.

Plenty of photos here collected by abyli. Empty supply bins for masks, gloves and eye goggles.
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/r0MgCEtpYRocZECSPcpDXA

I also have photos of dead bodies on the ground in the hospital for hours with no one taking care of. They are covered by white cloth so I can tell they are already dead.
While at the same time, I have a photo of the Provincial Governor on TV saying that they have plenty of supply and there is nothing to worry about!

Best of wishes to your relatives. My wife (who speaks some Chinese) also looked at some news and told me that it looks quite concerning and that I should look into 3M stock.

APT is also a bit interesting
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Spekulatius

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #36 on: January 25, 2020, 07:39:22 AM »
Take photos, spread the news. The world needs to know the humanitarian crisis that is developing. If this as bad as it sounds, it will need a coordinated effort to solve.

Plenty of photos here collected by abyli. Empty supply bins for masks, gloves and eye goggles.
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/r0MgCEtpYRocZECSPcpDXA

I also have photos of dead bodies on the ground in the hospital for hours with no one taking care of. They are covered by white cloth so I can tell they are already dead.
While at the same time, I have a photo of the Provincial Governor on TV saying that they have plenty of supply and there is nothing to worry about!

Best of wishes to your relatives. My wife (who speaks some Chinese) also looked at some news and told me that it looks quite concerning and that I should look into 3M stock.

APT is also a bit interesting

Well some traders have noticed. however, the business has been around forever  and has gone nowhere. most or the revenue is related to construction. Of course 3M is so large that there isnít much real exposure either, but I notice that the brand recognition caused the stock to be relatively strong on an otherwise down day.

My own bet will probably be on the rebound of some travel related stocks like airlines or hotels. I am watching IHG for the latter, which is a well run asset light hotel international  franchise business.
Life is too short for cheap beer and wine.

nodnub

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DocSnowball

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #38 on: January 25, 2020, 04:17:57 PM »
@muscleman sorry to hear about your family members. One thing to add would be that in the middle of an epidemic, all the bodies may not represent Coronavirus, they could be other diseases as well and the staff is just swamped.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/01/doubts-rise-about-chinas-ability-contain-new-coronavirus

This is an interesting piece out today. A few things are emerging - if the link was from snake or an exotic animal and to a single human, then the virus has been transmitted from human to human quite effectively so far. The New England Journal of Medicine paper out also suggests that the virus is attaching to upper airway epithelial cells more effectively than prior ones causing outbreaks.

This estimate puts it that each infected person is spreading it to 2.6 more people (range 1.5 to 3.5). This is much more than SARS or MERS-CoV. The fatality rate is possibly lesser then, otherwise it would have come to attention sooner. We'll have to see - transmissibility and morbidity/mortality are the two most important factors. The cat is out of the bag at this point.

I also think this will play out over 3-6 months and the short term is likely to bring more bad news. The large scale actions being taken now in China are to be lauded. Interested, but not able to predict where this will go. Likely will spread but mortality rate might not be as high as we initially think.

Another thing that can happen with coronaviruses is that they can evolve during human to human transmission - so there may be a base case scenario where it is transmissible (already) but low mortality, and a less likely but possible worst case scenario where it is transmissible and high mortality.
« Last Edit: January 25, 2020, 07:07:56 PM by DocSnowball »

Nell-e

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #39 on: January 25, 2020, 04:41:07 PM »
@muscleman

Best wishes to you and your family.  I find the worst case stories much more believable than the official numbers.  I don't trust the Chinese government.