Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 550471 times)

abyli

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StubbleJumper

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #41 on: January 25, 2020, 07:05:43 PM »
First off, on public health I don't know shit from shinola.  But, I would take this opportunity to make a quick comparison of this outbreak to the Mexican H1N1 outbreak from 10 years ago.  In both cases, you have a novel virus with a relatively modest r-nought but an apparently frightening case fatality rate.  But, in the case of H1N1, that apparent case fatality rate declined significantly over time, probably due to to a better measurement of the denominator.  Not to be too crass, but we are pretty good at measuring the numerator, because those are the dead guys and it's usually pretty obvious.  But, how many people had the virus and got better without ever encountering the public health system?  We are not that great at measuring the denominator.  Sometimes that apparent case fatality rate isn't as bad as it first seems, and once the virus hits the developed world, things sometimes are not as bad as they seem.

It doesn't help anyone whose family is infected, but for those of us who are far from the outbreak, it's worth reflecting on past lessons.


SJ

Spekulatius

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #42 on: January 25, 2020, 07:18:59 PM »
First off, on public health I don't know shit from shinola.  But, I would take this opportunity to make a quick comparison of this outbreak to the Mexican H1N1 outbreak from 10 years ago.  In both cases, you have a novel virus with a relatively modest r-nought but an apparently frightening case fatality rate.  But, in the case of H1N1, that apparent case fatality rate declined significantly over time, probably due to to a better measurement of the denominator.  Not to be too crass, but we are pretty good at measuring the numerator, because those are the dead guys and it's usually pretty obvious.  But, how many people had the virus and got better without ever encountering the public health system?  We are not that great at measuring the denominator.  Sometimes that apparent case fatality rate isn't as bad as it first seems, and once the virus hits the developed world, things sometimes are not as bad as they seem.

It doesn't help anyone whose family is infected, but for those of us who are far from the outbreak, it's worth reflecting on past lessons.


SJ

Past episodes seem to indicate that those epidemics donít have much of an impact:
https://twitter.com/renmacllc/status/1220761911610019843?s=21

I do recall SARS had some impact on the HK stock market at that time, but it tended to fade away quickly. There was some impact on travel related business in the area that was quite real, but even those recovered within a year or so.
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StubbleJumper

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #43 on: January 25, 2020, 07:35:18 PM »
First off, on public health I don't know shit from shinola.  But, I would take this opportunity to make a quick comparison of this outbreak to the Mexican H1N1 outbreak from 10 years ago.  In both cases, you have a novel virus with a relatively modest r-nought but an apparently frightening case fatality rate.  But, in the case of H1N1, that apparent case fatality rate declined significantly over time, probably due to to a better measurement of the denominator.  Not to be too crass, but we are pretty good at measuring the numerator, because those are the dead guys and it's usually pretty obvious.  But, how many people had the virus and got better without ever encountering the public health system?  We are not that great at measuring the denominator.  Sometimes that apparent case fatality rate isn't as bad as it first seems, and once the virus hits the developed world, things sometimes are not as bad as they seem.

It doesn't help anyone whose family is infected, but for those of us who are far from the outbreak, it's worth reflecting on past lessons.


SJ

Past episodes seem to indicate that those epidemics donít have much of an impact:
https://twitter.com/renmacllc/status/1220761911610019843?s=21

I do recall SARS had some impact on the HK stock market at that time, but it tended to fade away quickly. There was some impact on travel related business in the area that was quite real, but even those recovered within a year or so.


Well, the last numbers I saw were a bit alarming.  The last ones I saw were 56 deaths for 1,975 confirmed cases.  Frankly, if those are the correct numbers, it should scare the shit out of you because that would be a case fatality rate of 3%. But, should we believe those numbers?  I suspect that the 56 dead guys is probably a pretty decent number (maybe there are a few more who died from it, but were misattributed).  But should we believe the estimate of 1,975 cases of the virus?  Or is it really 10,000 cases of the virus, of which 8,000 never came to the attention of public health authorities because they stayed home and got better with no medical intervention?  There's a big difference between 56 dead guys out of 1,975 and 56 out of 10,000.  One is a pandemic that is scary as hell, and the other is not such a frightening event.

That's how H1N1 started out in Mexico.  The apparent case fatality rate was frighteningly high.  But, the Mexicans couldn't count what the people who never needed medical intervention.  So a nasty influenza that looked like a bad pandemic wasn't quite as bad as originally thought.  Let's hope that the denominator is wrong in this case too.


SJ

muscleman

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #44 on: January 25, 2020, 08:55:52 PM »
First off, on public health I don't know shit from shinola.  But, I would take this opportunity to make a quick comparison of this outbreak to the Mexican H1N1 outbreak from 10 years ago.  In both cases, you have a novel virus with a relatively modest r-nought but an apparently frightening case fatality rate.  But, in the case of H1N1, that apparent case fatality rate declined significantly over time, probably due to to a better measurement of the denominator.  Not to be too crass, but we are pretty good at measuring the numerator, because those are the dead guys and it's usually pretty obvious.  But, how many people had the virus and got better without ever encountering the public health system?  We are not that great at measuring the denominator.  Sometimes that apparent case fatality rate isn't as bad as it first seems, and once the virus hits the developed world, things sometimes are not as bad as they seem.

It doesn't help anyone whose family is infected, but for those of us who are far from the outbreak, it's worth reflecting on past lessons.


SJ

Past episodes seem to indicate that those epidemics donít have much of an impact:
https://twitter.com/renmacllc/status/1220761911610019843?s=21

I do recall SARS had some impact on the HK stock market at that time, but it tended to fade away quickly. There was some impact on travel related business in the area that was quite real, but even those recovered within a year or so.


Well, the last numbers I saw were a bit alarming.  The last ones I saw were 56 deaths for 1,975 confirmed cases.  Frankly, if those are the correct numbers, it should scare the shit out of you because that would be a case fatality rate of 3%. But, should we believe those numbers?  I suspect that the 56 dead guys is probably a pretty decent number (maybe there are a few more who died from it, but were misattributed).  But should we believe the estimate of 1,975 cases of the virus?  Or is it really 10,000 cases of the virus, of which 8,000 never came to the attention of public health authorities because they stayed home and got better with no medical intervention?  There's a big difference between 56 dead guys out of 1,975 and 56 out of 10,000.  One is a pandemic that is scary as hell, and the other is not such a frightening event.

That's how H1N1 started out in Mexico.  The apparent case fatality rate was frighteningly high.  But, the Mexicans couldn't count what the people who never needed medical intervention.  So a nasty influenza that looked like a bad pandemic wasn't quite as bad as originally thought.  Let's hope that the denominator is wrong in this case too.


SJ

Right now the government only acknowledge cases tested by the PCR kit. However there is a shortage of such kits and most patients (like my two relatives) keep running to various hospitals day after day before they finally get tested.

The 1900 infection number is just a joke. The actual number is likely in the 100k range.
Check out SARS stats for example. 5k infections and 300 death in China, vs 1100 infections and 200 death in Hong Kong. The death rate almost doubles in Hong Kong. Is Hong Kong medical system that much worse than China? Or is someone faking the numbers?

I am muslceman. I have more muscle than brain!

sleepydragon

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #45 on: January 26, 2020, 06:51:51 AM »
There are rumors saying that the virus was accidentally released by a military research center in WuHan. It was initially intended to be used to stop the protests in HK.
It certainly did wonders in Paris. As soon as a woman from WuHan arrived in Paris, protests stopped and people rushed to buy musks.
Lol


Pondside47

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #46 on: January 26, 2020, 07:31:59 AM »
I am from Wuhan and I have lots of friends and relatives there. I could tell you this: If you trust the government's stats of 500 infections and 17 deaths, it is no different from buying Chinese stocks merely based on their financial reports. All fake numbers.
The actual number is likely in the 100k range.
Right now even the doctors ran out of masks and gloves and are working unprotected. I don't know how much longer they can last before they are down.
I have 3 relatives infected. One staying at home, and two who spent 6 days going to each hospital to try to get hospitalized. They were all told one thing: We don't have resources for you. Go home. They finally got hospitalized yesterday. Think about it. That's after they are diagnosed positive. They are walking on the streets for 6 days while spreading the virus everywhere, with no hospital taking them in.
There are thousands and thousands of such patients.
There are also dead bodies everywhere in all hospitals. They are dead on the floor and for hours, no one comes to pick the bodies up. When they do get picked up, they are immediately sent to the funeral to be burned, without any diagnose of whether they got infected by this virus or else. Therefore the 17 death is just a joke.

Thanks for sharing that firsthand information. I hope everyone in your family ends up alright. What makes you think thatís the number has already hit 100k?

How wish his family member recover fully from the infection, but technically a lot of what muscleman said is hearsay not firsthand experience. My father's side family is from Wuhan as well and I hear from them quite the opposite. Yes some people are dying and yes we are short on medical supply due to the holidays. But things are getting better since the first month was virus attacking human unnoticed and now it's got the attention of us. Even if you multiply the official number by 10x and put it in the context of the size of population, it feels more hysteria than real catastrophe to me. How many people have died from the flu this season in the US?

None of my relatives have been infected and according to them the hysteria going around is mostly due to people panicking to rumors on social media. To you guys, what I just said goes into the hearsay category as well, other than the fact that none of my family has been infected. This whole situation is quite a hotbed for conspiracies.

Could the Wuhan government have responded better to this situation? The answer is absolutely yes, but the same answer goes for every crisis in every country. There is an article on WSJ yesterday about how 40 people died in Toronto during SARS while 0-1 died in Vancouver, and explained the difference in how hospital handled the infected patient in ER contributed the difference in the same country.  Quite an interesting read.

Spekulatius

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #47 on: January 26, 2020, 07:45:11 AM »
A clue season Worldwide infects roughly 41M people with 57k death (roughly ), so a 1/730mortality. Just to put things into perspective. The news is certainly scary, but it is well possible that the episode is not much different than a severe flu outbreak.
SARS was scary because mortality was high. I donít think we have reliable numbers from the Soronavirus yet.
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2019/04/us-flu-still-elevated-dropping-deaths-high-57000
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lnofeisone

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #48 on: January 26, 2020, 08:17:09 AM »
I found this to be very informative. The sheer magnitude of the update between Jan 17th and 22nd is staggering. Really explains China's drastic measures.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/?fbclid=IwAR1YkF6-jQQqI8IYkAWIqhjAn1M5gNngTV4SNgH030OkKlE9y3leTB3uveQ

*Edited for date correction.

gary17

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #49 on: January 26, 2020, 10:28:55 AM »
https://youtu.be/vcGITfaplN4

this is a reporter doing reporting in wuhan on youtube.  heís a critic of the communist party so heís been using proxy software to be posting on youtube in china.   
you can see from earlier videos he posted of hospital  scenes

itís in mandarin but thereís plenty of footage thatís pretty self-explanatory


he is reporting that talking to a nurse yesterday, the crowding condition at the hospital appears to have died down somewhat, which i hope is a good sign
« Last Edit: January 26, 2020, 10:33:11 AM by gary17 »