Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 462820 times)

KCLarkin

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1826
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #5750 on: May 22, 2020, 11:52:41 AM »
I didn't say that - it's the newest estimate provided by the CDC.

See my edits above. AFAIK, the CDC never said 0.27%. Someone else made that inference based on CDC estimated IFR-S of 0.4%.

Yup. So 0.4% IFR for symptomatic and 35% asymmptomatic mix gets u 0.27%.

Um...sure... let's multiply a highly uncertain IFR-S estimate with a highly uncertain asymptomatic rate to get a very precise IFR. And then compare to a highly uncertain "commonly accepted" estimate of the IFR-S for flu. Sounds rigorous. Sorry that the 10x number I pulled out of my keister isn't rigorous enough for you.


frank87

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 279
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #5751 on: May 22, 2020, 11:55:05 AM »
I didn't say that - it's the newest estimate provided by the CDC.

See my edits above. AFAIK, the CDC never said 0.27%. Someone else made that inference based on CDC estimated IFR-S of 0.4%.

Yup. So 0.4% IFR for symptomatic and 35% asymmptomatic mix gets u 0.27%.

Um...sure... let's multiply a highly uncertain IFR-S estimate with a highly uncertain asymptomatic rate to get a very precise IFR. And then compare to a highly uncertain "commonly accepted" estimate of the IFR-S for flu. Sounds rigorous. Sorry that the 10x number I pulled out of my keister isn't rigorous enough for you.

I think you're mistaking what I'm saying. I'm citing CDC's latest "best estimate". Maybe it's best we leave it there.

KCLarkin

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1826
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #5752 on: May 22, 2020, 11:55:39 AM »
CDC just came out with their new estimate for the infection fatality ratio (IFR) - 0.27%. Are we just dealing with something as deadly as the flu but since it's novel, it's far more easily spread?

Hey! Can people who have no idea what the IFR of the flu is please stop saying Covid "is just as deadly as the flu"?
Indications in some places (NYC, Italy) says that it is while in other places (Singapore, Japan) says that it isn't.

Sorry I missed this the first time. There is pretty strong evidence that IFR is much higher for the elderly, obese, blacks, and hispanics. IFR estimates from Asia populations probably not relevant here.

KCLarkin

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1826
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #5753 on: May 22, 2020, 11:58:03 AM »
I think you're mistaking what I'm saying. I'm citing CDC's latest "best estimate". Maybe it's best we leave it there.

Then please cite the actual CDC best estimate and leave the other extrapolations out of it.

frank87

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 279
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #5754 on: May 22, 2020, 12:11:50 PM »
I think you're mistaking what I'm saying. I'm citing CDC's latest "best estimate". Maybe it's best we leave it there.

Then please cite the actual CDC best estimate and leave the other extrapolations out of it.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

Scroll down to: Scenario 5: Current Best Estimate

Liberty

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 12619
  • twitter.com/libertyRPF
    • twitter.com/libertyRPF
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #5755 on: May 22, 2020, 12:28:18 PM »
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/22/dr-anthony-fauci-says-staying-closed-for-too-long-could-cause-irreparable-damage.html

Quote
Stay-at-home orders intended to curb the spread of the coronavirus could end up causing “irreparable damage” if imposed for too long, White House health advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci said.

“I don’t want people to think that any of us feel that staying locked down for a prolonged period of time is the way to go,” he told CNBC.

Indeed. Exactly why managing the situation well is so important, and mismanaging it is so costly and has strong non-linear effects (as expected from an exponential process).
"Most haystacks don't even have a needle." |  I'm on Twitter  | This podcast episode is a must-listen

physdude

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 82
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #5756 on: May 22, 2020, 12:36:00 PM »
For those that think governments should require masks in order to "save lives," do you also think the government should ban abortions to "save lives?"

If not, why do you believe in "my body, my choice" for for one and not the other? The death rate on abortion (for the aborted humans) is far, far higher than the death rate from covid19.

LOL.  How about ban cars?  Why abortions?  The ultimate political hijacking thwarted (I hope).

Covid 19 has killed more than cars. Abortion has killed more than covid19.

Keep in mind, my argument isn't just saving lives, it's also about what the government say we can (or cannot do) to our bodies.  Why is it okay to use the slogan only when it benefits your political ideology?

Are you seriously comparing the cost (human, not financial though that also probably applies) of having an abortion and not wearing a mask??? Further, the mask is probably going to save the health of many people at very little cost and inconvenience to the wearer.

I am also curious about what you think of the modesty laws which are more stringent in the US than Europe? Why are those laws okay when it concerns your body and why haven't there been many protests encouraged by the president on that incredible violation of freedom compared to the simple requirement to wear a mask?

I would argue the human cost is far, far higher with abortion than covid19 (so far anyway). financially? I don't know.

I haven't thought much about modesty laws. I don't see how what to wear (or not) is violating "speech" though.

I am talking about the cost incurred of wearing a mask vs that incurred by an abortion. The former is almost costless and has a significant benefit while the latter has a very high cost. The only reason not to wear the mask given the low cost of the effort seems to be the disrespect of the health of others. It is really very similar to the wearing of a seatbelt - very low cost and increases your and other's safety tremendously (especially if everyone is involved in not wearing the mask as that reduces R0 tremendously and stops the pandemic in the tracks).

Also, how is required wearing of a mask violating free speech any more than the modesty laws? The banning of hijabs etc is a much more direct violation of free speech but I usually see little objection to that, especially among the right wing (though this is only an issue in Europe).

Wouldn't you say that abortion is very disrespectful to the health of the one being aborted? I would think that banning abortion would be far less expensive than using masks. You could ban them for free. Masks aren't free. I also don't see why wearing seat belts is required if people want "choice."

I just find it funny that people want government to control others when it suits their interests/wants but not in areas that they don't want to be told what to do. It doesn't make much sense.

That depends on whether you consider there to be a person involved at all in the case of abortion. Does using a condom become disrespectful to the potential persons? Strawman much?? :)

But more importantly, the mask concretely reduces the infection of potentially hundreds of actual human beings, not just one, with many super spreader events having infected at least hundreds of people. The economic benefit of a single disposable mask in terms of human has been estimated to be at least several thousand dollars.

Looking at your responses, it is no wonder the ultra right wing has been urging its people to actively spread covid among minorities and to stop people wearing masks (survival of the fittest?).
« Last Edit: May 22, 2020, 12:43:02 PM by physdude »

KCLarkin

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1826
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #5757 on: May 22, 2020, 01:01:07 PM »
I think you're mistaking what I'm saying. I'm citing CDC's latest "best estimate". Maybe it's best we leave it there.

Then please cite the actual CDC best estimate and leave the other extrapolations out of it.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

Scroll down to: Scenario 5: Current Best Estimate

Thanks!

Liberty

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 12619
  • twitter.com/libertyRPF
    • twitter.com/libertyRPF
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #5758 on: May 22, 2020, 02:01:12 PM »
From a doc I follow (his background: "ICU doc with expertise in biothreats preparedness, translational research, and drug/vaccine development."):

Quote
Big drop in MA cases today - 16 days after universal mask-wearing became law.

https://twitter.com/notdred/status/1263937036815384576?s=20
"Most haystacks don't even have a needle." |  I'm on Twitter  | This podcast episode is a must-listen

Jurgis

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5269
    • Porfolio
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #5759 on: May 22, 2020, 02:03:23 PM »
From a doc I follow (his background: "ICU doc with expertise in biothreats preparedness, translational research, and drug/vaccine development."):

Quote
Big drop in MA cases today - 16 days after universal mask-wearing became law.

https://twitter.com/notdred/status/1263937036815384576?s=20

Daily stats from states are unreliable and I hope people don't make conclusions based on them.
There were zero cases in MA one of the days: https://covidtracking.com/data/state/massachusetts#historical
"Human civilization? It might be a good idea." - Not Gandhi
"Before you can be rich, you must be poor." - Nef Anyo
"Money is an illusion" - Not Karl Marx
--------------------------------------------------------------------
"American History X", "Milk", "The Insider", "Dirty Money", "LBJ"