Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 542995 times)

RichardGibbons

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #5880 on: June 02, 2020, 12:42:54 AM »
Bonnie Henry, British Columbia's pandemic leader--who's likely the single person most responsible for BC's success against COVID-19--has said that there hasn't been a pandemic in recorded history that hasn't had a second wave.

I have no idea if that's hyperbole, or something built into the definition of pandemic (like, if it doesn't have a second wave, it isn't problematic enough to be called a pandemic). But I'm inclined to believe her.


Spekulatius

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #5881 on: June 02, 2020, 04:14:03 AM »
Sweden is interesting on many levels. Yes, the social measures have been applied, in practice, to similar degrees (despite the first level impression) but there are differences. For instance, daycares and schools (age 16 and under) have remained open. Potential bias: the house is full now and i may overestimate the downside to school closures...They have reported higher numbers in relation to a slightly different application of measures but it is interesting to note that this appears to be a (collective) decision made consciously and with a fair degree of consensus. Also, it appears that keeping schools open may have been a good decision because there is good evidence showing that 1-young individuals don't tend to become COVID+ even with exposure which may be related to a relative absence of receptors (specific to entry of CV) on the surface of cells of their respiratory tracts, 2-even when COVID+, young people tend not to become sick and 3-asymptomatic COVID+ kids don't seem to spread very well (for example, there's this reported case of a young (European) person who turned out to be both influenza+ and CV+, who happened to travel places and the person was quite efficient at spreading the flu but not CV).

Cigar but, interesting that you bring up that kids (and probably young people) are not very good spreaders of COVID-19. I’d have looked a fair amount and couldn’t come up with an example where a kid (through school or otherwise) was identified as a superspreader. In Germany, the schools have reopened again a couple of weeks ago, but the superspreader events that did occur were in churches and restaurants involving older people. The absence of evidence is not proof ,but somewhat telling.

In any case, the main risk with opening schools is not that the kids get infected, it’s them serving as a vector for transmission to more vulnerable people (teachers, parents ). If that risk is low, than opening the schools starting with smaller kids (who likely have younger parents and teachers ! ) should be strongly considered now.

I am likely biased as well, since I have a teenage son at home and we noticed  ( despite seemingly taking the quarantine well) a noticeable degradation in academic performance as well as some psychological issues at home. Not sure what to make of it sample size =1), but our small School district is now trying to hire “emotional coordinator” and based on some hints from other parents, they have similar issues as well. In any case,I believe they if we close the schools for another semester and try to continue online only, we are likely creating a disaster here for the kids. As a parent, I would rather take my (fairly good) chances with the Virus, based on what I know.
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samwise

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #5882 on: June 02, 2020, 07:58:40 PM »
The spread is now in Brazil and Russia. Even in India, despite an early lockdown, cases are spreading and they are considering opening up. Bill Gates was despondent about the chances of emerging markets to contain the virus. Seems he was right again.

John Hjorth

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #5883 on: June 03, 2020, 01:37:51 AM »
The spread is now in Brazil and Russia. Even in India, despite an early lockdown, cases are spreading and they are considering opening up. Bill Gates was despondent about the chances of emerging markets to contain the virus. Seems he was right again.

Yes samwise,

The daily WHO sit reports are to me heartbreaking reads [even taking into consideration that they are the aggregations/consolidations/sums of local reports, of which some may be deemed unreliable]. To me, they read like we haven't seen the worst yet globally.
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John Hjorth

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #5884 on: June 03, 2020, 02:35:10 AM »
Jyllandsposten [June 3rd 2020] : Sweden's state epidemiologist: We should have done more against corona.

[original source : Ritzau, ref. lower part of the article.]

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Personally, I'm not sure about what to think about this. Is this just rear mirror wiewing [, that is basically useless, unless used for swift changes of prior decisions made as the situation elvolves over time], or is this a public admittal that the Swedish Corona approach has failed [, where the only logical action for Mr. Tegnell - at least to me - would be to turn in his resignation] ?
« Last Edit: June 03, 2020, 02:37:15 AM by John Hjorth »
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mattee2264

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #5885 on: June 03, 2020, 03:06:40 AM »

 My understanding is that the lockdowns have been pretty effective in getting the R rate well below 1 so even with relaxation of lockdowns and mass protests there is not going to be a deluge of new cases.

Liberty

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #5886 on: June 03, 2020, 03:45:42 AM »
https://www.ft.com/content/dae6d006-9adc-46d5-9b4e-79a7841022e8

“ Swedish expert admits country should have had tighter coronavirus controls
Shift comes as Stockholm promises a commission to investigate approach to pandemic”
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Spekulatius

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #5887 on: June 03, 2020, 04:14:51 AM »
https://www.ft.com/content/dae6d006-9adc-46d5-9b4e-79a7841022e8

“ Swedish expert admits country should have had tighter coronavirus controls
Shift comes as Stockholm promises a commission to investigate approach to pandemic”

The problem with the Swedish approach is that it still takes a long time to get the herd immunity. Stockholm was at only 7-8% (if Remember correctly) with the rest of the country far behind.

They also have no the problem they the rest of Europe or at least the part who have contained the Virus to very low levels may not allow free border movement from states like Sweden or the UK out of concern of importing cases. They probably need to way of testing everyone coming in.

I posted already upstream that the Swedish economy is not doing any better than the rest of Europe anyways. I do think there is a large benefit fit of keeping the schools open and we have to find a way to do this too.

Anyways, the Swedish way is sort of a success because they avoided total disaster like Italy, NYC or Spain and their citizens followed the guidelines from the government voluntarily. Their approach seems to be supported by their citizens, so who are we to judge. However, their path Forward seems to be as murky as anyone else’s with a huge economic tolls to pay.
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Cigarbutt

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #5888 on: June 03, 2020, 05:46:53 AM »
Jyllandsposten [June 3rd 2020] : Sweden's state epidemiologist: We should have done more against corona.
[original source : Ritzau, ref. lower part of the article.]
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Personally, I'm not sure about what to think about this. Is this just rear mirror wiewing [, that is basically useless, unless used for swift changes of prior decisions made as the situation elvolves over time], or is this a public admittal that the Swedish Corona approach has failed [, where the only logical action for Mr. Tegnell - at least to me - would be to turn in his resignation] ?
That was interesting (the article and your comment). FWIW, i have distant connections to people working in public health who, these days, tend to have difficulty sleeping and who sometimes watch evolving morbid statistics in the middle of the night. From some limited interactions with the Swedish posture, a recurring comment is that their relatively contrarian approach has created "tensions" with their neighbors. Sometimes the best way to get together is to converge. If i'd be the leading figure in Sweden (i'm just a noob though), i'd hope the head of the independent policy office to tender his resignation but would still refuse it by writing "Keep at it" on it.

John Hjorth

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #5889 on: June 03, 2020, 09:31:03 AM »
Cigarbutt,

Thank you for your contributions to this topic over time. As an almost total ignorant person in this scientific space it's to me a pleasure and a privilege to read your stuff on the matter at hand.

Perhaps my personal opinion about the Swedish Corona approach did shine through in my last post, however I tried to phrase it as carefully as I could, taking my own ignorance into consideration.

Today I took the time to actually read the Danish Doctor's Pledge, also ending reading about the WMA Declaration of Geneva, the Hippocratic Corpus & the Hippocratic Oath.

Based only on common sense - and with my personal ignorance as basis - I was surprised to see, that just by reading the Danish Doctors Pledge literally and straight out, the application of the Swedish Corona strategy here in Denmark would not be in non-compliance with the Danish Doctors Pledge. [The Danish Doctors Pledge does not mention potential patients, only "patients" [, which I understand as "actual patients"].


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So based on my limited understanding of World Wide ethics among health care professionals I dare ask for some comments and considerations from you - and certainly comments and considerations from the other doctors who have been active in the discussions in this topic are most welcome - on the ethical dimensions of the Swedish Corona strategy.

Perhaps needless to post it, but as a layman, I consider it problematic, ref. "Do not do any harm." I sincerely hope this post does not appear as rubbish among the doctors here on CoBF.
« Last Edit: June 03, 2020, 09:49:12 AM by John Hjorth »
”In the race of excellence … there is no finish line.”
-HH Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates and Ruler of Dubai