Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 534087 times)

Gregmal

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3835
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #6540 on: June 29, 2020, 04:32:01 PM »
its just some blanket "Trump minion, you never blame him" rhetoric.

Well, to be fair, it's because certain people on the thread literally never blame Trump. They literally don't acknowledge it when he's the person most responsible for America's mess. Like, he's the dude where the buck is supposed to stop. If you're looking for politicians who have the most leverage to fight the disease, this is the guy who has it, by far.

But some people seem to be trying to desperately deflect responsibility from him for some bizarre reason, pretending that he and the outbreak are in two completely different universes, never actually interacting with each other at all. And they also seem to believe that the Governor of the 20th smallest state is actually the most important leader in the entire country.

I guess maybe people skipped their civics class to go smoke outside?  I dunno. I find it quite peculiar.

But to get back on topic, while we wait on the deaths arising from the current surge of infections, it's worth noting that we ought to get fewer deaths per capita infected not simply because of the age of infected people, but because treatment has improved in a very real, significant way. This was one of the key goals of flattening the curve and doing the lockdowns, and it's starting to be achieved.

We've delayed infections long enough that some people who would have died if they had been infected three months ago will now live if they get infected today. I speculate that the number of saved lives in the USA alone will be in the tens of thousands.

I think that's a marvellous thing.

It's ok--his enablers think it's worth it to protect/enable him despite the lasting damage which is being done to the United States.

Like I said, more triggered by an NFL player kneeling or CHAZ but when 120k are dead it's, "well you have to think about the economic trade offs" or "it's only the elderly anyway".

It would be one thing if Trump started taking this pandemic seriously in March (which would have been late as it was). Instead, he held two indoor rallies in places with surging cases last week and said "the pandemic is ending". It is no longer negligence/incompetence that you can merely accuse him of, but instead of actively seeding the virus.

And yeah--big question mark as to why those individuals who claim not to be biased yet hark on about people protesting/Cuomo can't even muster some critique of the administration.

Anyway, this is the coronavirus thread--and DJT will certainly not get a free pass here.

Greggie said Cuomo deserves blame because 25% of American deaths have happened in NY State. Well wanna hear another statistic? 25% of global deaths are in one country: the United States--who you gonna hold accountable for that? I know to some people the answer will never be Trump.

Well for one, if US is 1/4th then Cuomo still has some pretty big market share on the global scale as well.

But regardless, its pointless. Try to have a non politically charged coronavirus conversation, Dalal is AWOL. Heck we can even talk repeatedly about how many different parties, including the Trump administration, have dropped the ball. Then give it a few minutes and Dalal will be back pushing his narrative and claiming no one ever blames Trump....


cwericb

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1272
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #6541 on: June 29, 2020, 04:47:31 PM »
Okay, here is what Mr. Trump supporters need to know....

Many other countries have sucked it up, locked down, paid the price and have been reasonably succesful in controlling this disease.

On the other hand, as you admit the US has been too greedy and too selfish to do their part to help stop a worldwide pandemic. And because US can't get their shit together they are quite willing to put many, many people in other countries at risk.

And “the government can't tell me what to do" crowd in the U.S. needs to grow up, suck it up and get with the program or suffer the consequences as they count up their dead relatives.
 
Politicians and diapers must be changed often, and for the same reason. - Mark Twain

alwaysdrawing

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 222
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #6542 on: June 29, 2020, 04:55:32 PM »
@RichardGibbons
i don't want to choke your enthusiasm and results are improving but the "breakthroughs" haven't happened yet. It's the same ingredients and people are simply coming up with the better recipes under the circumstances (large numbers of infected have 'helped', in an opportunistic way) but it's still, more or less, the same dish.

Well, it's far from a cure, but the numbers I've been seeing say a 35% reduction in deaths in patients who require a breathing machine, and 20% in patients who require supplemental oxygen. So, if you assume that almost everyone who dies from COVID-19 is in one of these two categories, and that, say, 100K people were "slated" to die from the latest explosion in cases in the USA, that might mean 25K lives saved.

I agree it's not a breakthrough. It's an incremental improvement, learning which existing drugs help. But I still think it's noteworthy as a significant improvement, even if it isn't a breakthrough.  (Like, if we had 4 more incremental improvements of comparable levels--and they didn't overlap on the patients they helped--COVID-19 wouldn't be a life-threatening disease in western countries.)

I'm delighted to have incremental improvements because I think it's very unrealistic to hope for a breakthrough "cure-like" treatment from a novel drug in a few months. When I was thinking about flattening the curve to give time for treatment options to improve, I wasn't thinking that based on the hope for a vaccine or a breakthrough drug, but rather for incremental improvements in treatments that lead to large increases in survival rates.

That type of reduction in mortality is up there with the best things in medicine. Imagine saving tens of thousands of lives, of people who can return to a mostly normal life. That’s incredible!!

The fact that it’s a $1 pill is even more amazing.

Nonetheless, we could still be looking at a lot of pain ahead. Lockdowns did buy some time, and if Dex helps reduce mortality by those large numbers, then that alone is a good reason to have locked down.

I wish those here would take a step back from the political discussion. I am critical of Trump especially, but plenty to criticize Cuomo and the governors for as well.  I doubt we will be convincing the most partisan among us, and I suggest we try to discuss the policies more than the specific blame assignment.

Dalal.Holdings

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 958
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #6543 on: June 29, 2020, 05:16:16 PM »
its just some blanket "Trump minion, you never blame him" rhetoric.

Well, to be fair, it's because certain people on the thread literally never blame Trump. They literally don't acknowledge it when he's the person most responsible for America's mess. Like, he's the dude where the buck is supposed to stop. If you're looking for politicians who have the most leverage to fight the disease, this is the guy who has it, by far.

But some people seem to be trying to desperately deflect responsibility from him for some bizarre reason, pretending that he and the outbreak are in two completely different universes, never actually interacting with each other at all. And they also seem to believe that the Governor of the 20th smallest state is actually the most important leader in the entire country.

I guess maybe people skipped their civics class to go smoke outside?  I dunno. I find it quite peculiar.

But to get back on topic, while we wait on the deaths arising from the current surge of infections, it's worth noting that we ought to get fewer deaths per capita infected not simply because of the age of infected people, but because treatment has improved in a very real, significant way. This was one of the key goals of flattening the curve and doing the lockdowns, and it's starting to be achieved.

We've delayed infections long enough that some people who would have died if they had been infected three months ago will now live if they get infected today. I speculate that the number of saved lives in the USA alone will be in the tens of thousands.

I think that's a marvellous thing.

It's ok--his enablers think it's worth it to protect/enable him despite the lasting damage which is being done to the United States.

Like I said, more triggered by an NFL player kneeling or CHAZ but when 120k are dead it's, "well you have to think about the economic trade offs" or "it's only the elderly anyway".

It would be one thing if Trump started taking this pandemic seriously in March (which would have been late as it was). Instead, he held two indoor rallies in places with surging cases last week and said "the pandemic is ending". It is no longer negligence/incompetence that you can merely accuse him of, but instead of actively seeding the virus.

And yeah--big question mark as to why those individuals who claim not to be biased yet hark on about people protesting/Cuomo can't even muster some critique of the administration.

Anyway, this is the coronavirus thread--and DJT will certainly not get a free pass here.

Greggie said Cuomo deserves blame because 25% of American deaths have happened in NY State. Well wanna hear another statistic? 25% of global deaths are in one country: the United States--who you gonna hold accountable for that? I know to some people the answer will never be Trump.

Well for one, if US is 1/4th then Cuomo still has some pretty big market share on the global scale as well.

But regardless, its pointless. Try to have a non politically charged coronavirus conversation, Dalal is AWOL. Heck we can even talk repeatedly about how many different parties, including the Trump administration, have dropped the ball. Then give it a few minutes and Dalal will be back pushing his narrative and claiming no one ever blames Trump....

Sorry, Greggie you continue to mislead about me, please get your memory checked. I've been posting here in covid thread since late Feb warning (when your boy called it "a hoax") and you've been dismissing the threat consistently (often wrong, never in doubt). Mocking graphs you do not understand (even basic exponential trends) and you think I'm AWOL without politics. And yet you also follow me closely on PTON and TSLA threads (lol, sup pup). Maybe you think my posts are political because you lack the ability to interpret quantitative data and so you mock the graphs I post as well as Taleb's insights and think all I do is talk politics. A shame you can't understand any of the other stuff. Stick to your REITs--real estate is much easier to understand.

I bounced from this thread for a while once U.S. numbers started heading down around late April-May, but I came back as of few weeks ago because the threat is back (I was back before the headlines on FL, TX, AZ). I'm the kind of guy who focuses on details when they are relevant and I move on when they are not. Nothing to do with politics--if you can't get that thru your head, I ain't here to help you out.

And LOL, you want to know my positions on TSLA and PTON? They should be obvious. If you can't figure them out from my posts, I question your ability to interpret things. I'm not here to help you out by laying out my exact positions anyway. In fact, I don't give a damn what you think. If anything, you are an example for me on how not to think. I enjoy learning from the mistakes of others and you are a great teacher in that regard.

Amusing that you seem to paint me as overly political, but have nothing to say about the like of cubsfan whose every post is political, not that you're too far off from that. After all, you spend quite a bit of time in the politics section. Projection is a common phenomenon.
« Last Edit: June 29, 2020, 05:22:31 PM by Dalal.Holdings »
For analytical eyes only
https://twitter.com/LumeGroup

Cigarbutt

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2412
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #6544 on: June 29, 2020, 05:23:14 PM »
“...120k deaths and all is tragic from a human being emotional perspective, but in terms of the markets and the economy, its pretty meaningless...”
Okay, so I can understand that you feel that a certain number of lives must be sacrificed to keep the economy from being damaged any more than necessary. To help me further understand, just what is the exact price you put on each person that you want to sacrifice? The number of dead Americans is 128,007, so could you translate that into dollars saved per person who has died? Also do you have a number of dead that that is acceptable 200,000, 300,000?
What I or you think is irrelevant. How do the financial markets value an 80 year old with a 3-5 year further life expectancy? How much do they contribute to the economy? If we are talking about investing, and penalizing markets/GDP/company multiples, these figures dont exactly move the needle. However, completely shutting down everything, does. Is it surprising that we continue to see improving economic figures, even in states with rising cases? Is it possible the economy can run better than expected even with a pandemic, as long as governments do not interfere? These are the investment ramifications I think one needs to look at. Whereas my parents/grandparents or yours can die, and we'd be effected, but the guy down the street doesnt care, and neither does Mr. Market.
That is all true but in a larger respect I think its relevant to the economic effects. If 40 is your threshold, but 32-33 and above are not contagious and show no symptoms....wouldnt it help to know how many of these on a % basis there are? Or just simply use the 33 cutoff. If, for examples sake, 85% are not contagious and asymptomatic, there really isn't any basis for shutting anything down, ever. If that % is only 25%, then its a different story. Again, part of the problem with this. Too much data and enough to support any narrative one wants. 120k deaths and all is tragic from a human being emotional perspective, but in terms of the markets and the economy, its pretty meaningless, especially if most are not major cogs in the economy anyway, and even more so especially if half are nursing home folks. In fact, if you know anyone who's ever had to pay for a loved one to stay in a nursing home...its very expensive and really puts a strain on your discretionary spending.
On the Ct-value upper threshold, intrinsic characteristics of the test and evolving data in the US show that using lower cutoff values at this point is either irrelevant or inadequate (asymptomatic CV+ may carry similar viral loads and may have similar contagiousness).
"Again, part of the problem with this. Too much data and enough to support any narrative one wants." Is that your analysis grid?
From a purely evolutionary standpoint (adaptation through physical changes or behavioral changes (inherited and non-inherited behavior)), this virus should be allowed to run its course as it preferentially kills the old, maimed and weak.
End of story for an investment thread if the end point is personal discretionary spending. But, sometimes, an evolutionary perspective requires a long term outlook.

---o---o---

Additional thoughts:
There is a story going around saying that a long time ago, the nomadic Inuit populations living in the Arctic, when crossing certain rivers and following the hunt, would leave the older part of the group behind...If true, did they have a choice for immediate community survival?
"if most are not major cogs in the economy anyway"
It's interesting that the concept of a cog is used. I hear that you're Jewish so you may know that this is the theory that Adolf Eichmann (person in charge of exterminations) brought up at his trial; he asserted he was just a cog in the machine.
"What I or you think is irrelevant"
In an investment thread maybe but not in my book.

---o---o---

@RichardGibbons
We're pretty much on the same page. I just wanted to modulate the expectations. Longer term studies have a habit of showing less than impressive results even after marvelous beginnings. It may be an incentive thing. Interestingly, it's also a typical feature of investment funds, in the early years.
« Last Edit: June 29, 2020, 05:34:10 PM by Cigarbutt »

Gregmal

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3835
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #6545 on: June 29, 2020, 05:31:00 PM »
its just some blanket "Trump minion, you never blame him" rhetoric.

Well, to be fair, it's because certain people on the thread literally never blame Trump. They literally don't acknowledge it when he's the person most responsible for America's mess. Like, he's the dude where the buck is supposed to stop. If you're looking for politicians who have the most leverage to fight the disease, this is the guy who has it, by far.

But some people seem to be trying to desperately deflect responsibility from him for some bizarre reason, pretending that he and the outbreak are in two completely different universes, never actually interacting with each other at all. And they also seem to believe that the Governor of the 20th smallest state is actually the most important leader in the entire country.

I guess maybe people skipped their civics class to go smoke outside?  I dunno. I find it quite peculiar.

But to get back on topic, while we wait on the deaths arising from the current surge of infections, it's worth noting that we ought to get fewer deaths per capita infected not simply because of the age of infected people, but because treatment has improved in a very real, significant way. This was one of the key goals of flattening the curve and doing the lockdowns, and it's starting to be achieved.

We've delayed infections long enough that some people who would have died if they had been infected three months ago will now live if they get infected today. I speculate that the number of saved lives in the USA alone will be in the tens of thousands.

I think that's a marvellous thing.

It's ok--his enablers think it's worth it to protect/enable him despite the lasting damage which is being done to the United States.

Like I said, more triggered by an NFL player kneeling or CHAZ but when 120k are dead it's, "well you have to think about the economic trade offs" or "it's only the elderly anyway".

It would be one thing if Trump started taking this pandemic seriously in March (which would have been late as it was). Instead, he held two indoor rallies in places with surging cases last week and said "the pandemic is ending". It is no longer negligence/incompetence that you can merely accuse him of, but instead of actively seeding the virus.

And yeah--big question mark as to why those individuals who claim not to be biased yet hark on about people protesting/Cuomo can't even muster some critique of the administration.

Anyway, this is the coronavirus thread--and DJT will certainly not get a free pass here.

Greggie said Cuomo deserves blame because 25% of American deaths have happened in NY State. Well wanna hear another statistic? 25% of global deaths are in one country: the United States--who you gonna hold accountable for that? I know to some people the answer will never be Trump.

Well for one, if US is 1/4th then Cuomo still has some pretty big market share on the global scale as well.

But regardless, its pointless. Try to have a non politically charged coronavirus conversation, Dalal is AWOL. Heck we can even talk repeatedly about how many different parties, including the Trump administration, have dropped the ball. Then give it a few minutes and Dalal will be back pushing his narrative and claiming no one ever blames Trump....

Sorry, Greggie you continue to mislead about me, please get your memory checked. I've been posting here in covid thread since late Feb warning (when your boy called it "a hoax") and you've been dismissing the threat consistently (often wrong, never in doubt). Mocking graphs you do not understand (even basic exponential trends) and you think I'm AWOL without politics. And yet you also follow me closely on PTON and TSLA threads (lol, sup pup). Maybe you think my posts are political because you lack the ability to interpret quantitative data and so you mock the graphs I post as well as Taleb's insights and think all I do is talk politics. A shame you can't understand any of the other stuff. Stick to REITs--real estate is much easier to understand.

I bounced from this thread for a while once U.S. numbers started heading down around late April-May, but I came back as of few weeks ago because the threat is back (I was back before the headlines on FL, TX, AZ). I'm the kind of guy who focuses on details when they are relevant and I move on when they are not. Nothing to do with politics--if you can't get that thru your head, I ain't here to help you out.

And LOL, you want to know my positions on TSLA and PTON? They should be obvious. If you can't figure them out from my posts, I question your ability to interpret things. I'm not here to help you out by laying out my exact positions anyway. In fact, I don't give a damn what you think. If anything, you are an example for me on how not to think. I enjoy learning from the mistakes of others and you are a great teacher in that regard.

Amusing that you seem to paint me as overly political, but have nothing to say about the like of cubsfan whose every post is political, not that you're too far off from that. After all, you spend quite a bit of time in the politics section. Projection is a common phenomenon.

Yup, more of the same.

When you dont commit to anything, its all upside, no downside. Never wrong, always right. When you peddle flavor of the month Robinhood stocks but refuse to even answer a simple "do you own it" question, its by design. if it goes down; I dont own it, I sold it....if it goes up, you keep posturing. Highly predictable. Same with the virus stuff. Your graphs are not proprietary...sorry to break it to you. If you panicked in February/March you made a massive mistake(but again never having committed to an investment stance allows one wiggle room). And even for those things that have been impacted, assuming the balance sheet isn't upside down, you've got a hell of an opportunity in certain places, IE NYC-centric businesses.

Art of the Deal level stuff right here, courtesy of Dalal.

Gregmal

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3835
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #6546 on: June 29, 2020, 05:37:40 PM »

Additional thoughts:
There is a story going around saying that a long time ago, the nomadic Inuit populations living in the Arctic, when crossing certain rivers and following the hunt, would leave the older part of the group behind...If true, did they have a choice for immediate community survival?
"if most are not major cogs in the economy anyway"
It's interesting that the concept of a cog is used. I hear that you're Jewish so you may know that this is the theory that Adolf Eichmann (person in charge of exterminations) brought up at his trial; he asserted he was just a cog in the machine.
"What I or you think is irrelevant"
In an investment thread maybe but not in my book.

---o---o---

@RichardGibbons
We're pretty much on the same page. I just wanted to modulate the expectations. Longer term studies have a habit of showing less than impressive results even after marvelous beginnings. It may be an incentive thing.

I think when investing, one needs to remove emotion as much as possible. You have to think/be a socio-path. Its not "feel good" or anything to boast about, but its how things work. People essentially are cogs or data points. There is a great line from Big Short where Ben Rickard says, "you know what I hate about banking, it reduces people to numbers"....Part of the reason I moved out of the financial world as much as possible after getting setup, and have the goal to be removed from it completely within the next few years. Its not for everybody, but its how the game is played. Ask any PM honestly if they'd trade 1M senior citizens for an S&P rebound in 2021 and they all likely vote yes. I think if you are in the markets you have to be aware of these things and anticipate those directions. Its the stance that much of the US is taking through policy action.

Dalal.Holdings

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 958
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #6547 on: June 29, 2020, 05:46:20 PM »
its just some blanket "Trump minion, you never blame him" rhetoric.

Well, to be fair, it's because certain people on the thread literally never blame Trump. They literally don't acknowledge it when he's the person most responsible for America's mess. Like, he's the dude where the buck is supposed to stop. If you're looking for politicians who have the most leverage to fight the disease, this is the guy who has it, by far.

But some people seem to be trying to desperately deflect responsibility from him for some bizarre reason, pretending that he and the outbreak are in two completely different universes, never actually interacting with each other at all. And they also seem to believe that the Governor of the 20th smallest state is actually the most important leader in the entire country.

I guess maybe people skipped their civics class to go smoke outside?  I dunno. I find it quite peculiar.

But to get back on topic, while we wait on the deaths arising from the current surge of infections, it's worth noting that we ought to get fewer deaths per capita infected not simply because of the age of infected people, but because treatment has improved in a very real, significant way. This was one of the key goals of flattening the curve and doing the lockdowns, and it's starting to be achieved.

We've delayed infections long enough that some people who would have died if they had been infected three months ago will now live if they get infected today. I speculate that the number of saved lives in the USA alone will be in the tens of thousands.

I think that's a marvellous thing.

It's ok--his enablers think it's worth it to protect/enable him despite the lasting damage which is being done to the United States.

Like I said, more triggered by an NFL player kneeling or CHAZ but when 120k are dead it's, "well you have to think about the economic trade offs" or "it's only the elderly anyway".

It would be one thing if Trump started taking this pandemic seriously in March (which would have been late as it was). Instead, he held two indoor rallies in places with surging cases last week and said "the pandemic is ending". It is no longer negligence/incompetence that you can merely accuse him of, but instead of actively seeding the virus.

And yeah--big question mark as to why those individuals who claim not to be biased yet hark on about people protesting/Cuomo can't even muster some critique of the administration.

Anyway, this is the coronavirus thread--and DJT will certainly not get a free pass here.

Greggie said Cuomo deserves blame because 25% of American deaths have happened in NY State. Well wanna hear another statistic? 25% of global deaths are in one country: the United States--who you gonna hold accountable for that? I know to some people the answer will never be Trump.

Well for one, if US is 1/4th then Cuomo still has some pretty big market share on the global scale as well.

But regardless, its pointless. Try to have a non politically charged coronavirus conversation, Dalal is AWOL. Heck we can even talk repeatedly about how many different parties, including the Trump administration, have dropped the ball. Then give it a few minutes and Dalal will be back pushing his narrative and claiming no one ever blames Trump....

Sorry, Greggie you continue to mislead about me, please get your memory checked. I've been posting here in covid thread since late Feb warning (when your boy called it "a hoax") and you've been dismissing the threat consistently (often wrong, never in doubt). Mocking graphs you do not understand (even basic exponential trends) and you think I'm AWOL without politics. And yet you also follow me closely on PTON and TSLA threads (lol, sup pup). Maybe you think my posts are political because you lack the ability to interpret quantitative data and so you mock the graphs I post as well as Taleb's insights and think all I do is talk politics. A shame you can't understand any of the other stuff. Stick to REITs--real estate is much easier to understand.

I bounced from this thread for a while once U.S. numbers started heading down around late April-May, but I came back as of few weeks ago because the threat is back (I was back before the headlines on FL, TX, AZ). I'm the kind of guy who focuses on details when they are relevant and I move on when they are not. Nothing to do with politics--if you can't get that thru your head, I ain't here to help you out.

And LOL, you want to know my positions on TSLA and PTON? They should be obvious. If you can't figure them out from my posts, I question your ability to interpret things. I'm not here to help you out by laying out my exact positions anyway. In fact, I don't give a damn what you think. If anything, you are an example for me on how not to think. I enjoy learning from the mistakes of others and you are a great teacher in that regard.

Amusing that you seem to paint me as overly political, but have nothing to say about the like of cubsfan whose every post is political, not that you're too far off from that. After all, you spend quite a bit of time in the politics section. Projection is a common phenomenon.

Yup, more of the same.

When you dont commit to anything, its all upside, no downside. Never wrong, always right. When you peddle flavor of the month Robinhood stocks but refuse to even answer a simple "do you own it" question, its by design. if it goes down; I dont own it, I sold it....if it goes up, you keep posturing. Highly predictable. Same with the virus stuff. Your graphs are not proprietary...sorry to break it to you. If you panicked in February/March you made a massive mistake(but again never having committed to an investment stance allows one wiggle room). And even for those things that have been impacted, assuming the balance sheet isn't upside down, you've got a hell of an opportunity in certain places, IE NYC-centric businesses.

Art of the Deal level stuff right here, courtesy of Dalal.

Well considering PTON and TSLA are near all time highs and I've clearly said I'm out of one of those, your thesis is broken (i.e. neither has really "gone down" for significant time period since I've owned them). It's not that hard to figure out. And I've willfully admitted to prior mistakes (owning GM for example). Again, you mislead about me. But not surprising considering someone with this many memory lapses...

Lol, "proprietary charts"--did I even claim to own those Johns Hopkins graphs? Do you understand how interpretation of publicly available data works? It's kind of a core tenet of investing. I've also never claimed to own the data on the SEC's website...You still don't get it. Good luck pal.

Quote
If you panicked in February/March you made a massive mistake(but again never having committed to an investment stance allows one wiggle room).

Again, making things up about me. But yeah, I bet you think WEB "panicked" too. Clearly anyone who took covid seriously back then was looney (that's why DJT is a genius derp because he knew it was a "hoax") and covid has not and will not have real, long term effects on the economy or equities for the medium term. Clearly covid's impact on the market is settled now with the latest rally per Gregmal and anyone who sold made a mistake. Apparently we now believe in efficient markets...Mr. Market is omniscient after all...
« Last Edit: June 29, 2020, 05:52:31 PM by Dalal.Holdings »
For analytical eyes only
https://twitter.com/LumeGroup

Spekulatius

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4939
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #6548 on: June 30, 2020, 04:17:58 AM »

Additional thoughts:
There is a story going around saying that a long time ago, the nomadic Inuit populations living in the Arctic, when crossing certain rivers and following the hunt, would leave the older part of the group behind...If true, did they have a choice for immediate community survival?
"if most are not major cogs in the economy anyway"
It's interesting that the concept of a cog is used. I hear that you're Jewish so you may know that this is the theory that Adolf Eichmann (person in charge of exterminations) brought up at his trial; he asserted he was just a cog in the machine.
"What I or you think is irrelevant"
In an investment thread maybe but not in my book.

---o---o---

@RichardGibbons
We're pretty much on the same page. I just wanted to modulate the expectations. Longer term studies have a habit of showing less than impressive results even after marvelous beginnings. It may be an incentive thing.

I think when investing, one needs to remove emotion as much as possible. You have to think/be a socio-path. Its not "feel good" or anything to boast about, but its how things work. People essentially are cogs or data points. There is a great line from Big Short where Ben Rickard says, "you know what I hate about banking, it reduces people to numbers"....Part of the reason I moved out of the financial world as much as possible after getting setup, and have the goal to be removed from it completely within the next few years. Its not for everybody, but its how the game is played. Ask any PM honestly if they'd trade 1M senior citizens for an S&P rebound in 2021 and they all likely vote yes. I think if you are in the markets you have to be aware of these things and anticipate those directions. Its the stance that much of the US is taking through policy action.

The problem with that is that people can collectively panic and react in unpredictable ways. This epidemic has the potential to kill perhaps 0.5% of the population or ~1.7M people based on current data
 If you just remove 1.7M people from the economy with a large skew toward older people, then you could conclude it’s not a big deal. However if you think it through and consider that those 1.7M people collectively have a lot of money and perhaps don’t want to die and there are ~30M people with a lot of money in the same risk group, Who will behave very differently then it starts to matter.

Florida and  Arizona might be good examples of this. Are older people still going to move there (these states are big destinations for retirees) while they let the Virus circulate freely? If they are already there, will those people spent money in restaurants etc? Unlike the millennials, those folks tend to have a lot of money, so it does matter what they think and how they feel.

Florida has a big tourism industry on top of the retirees l so how this will be going? Even if you aren’t scared for your life, it’s not a great prospect to contract a disease that is far worse than having a flu for 2-3 weeks? Worth going to Disneyland for? Then there are European and Asian travelers which at this point are going to be a zero, as they will require quarantine upon coming back most likely. Most folks from these countries won’t bother visiting the US anyways for a while. So, I think the economic impact of this delayed wave in these states will be significant.

The good news and the reason why Mr. Market hasn’t panicked yet, is they death rates are still low. I think they will go up somewhat but hopefully we will never seen the levels seen in the NE from March/April again anywhere.
Life is too short for cheap beer and wine.

Dalal.Holdings

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 958
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #6549 on: June 30, 2020, 05:58:43 AM »

Additional thoughts:
There is a story going around saying that a long time ago, the nomadic Inuit populations living in the Arctic, when crossing certain rivers and following the hunt, would leave the older part of the group behind...If true, did they have a choice for immediate community survival?
"if most are not major cogs in the economy anyway"
It's interesting that the concept of a cog is used. I hear that you're Jewish so you may know that this is the theory that Adolf Eichmann (person in charge of exterminations) brought up at his trial; he asserted he was just a cog in the machine.
"What I or you think is irrelevant"
In an investment thread maybe but not in my book.

---o---o---

@RichardGibbons
We're pretty much on the same page. I just wanted to modulate the expectations. Longer term studies have a habit of showing less than impressive results even after marvelous beginnings. It may be an incentive thing.

I think when investing, one needs to remove emotion as much as possible. You have to think/be a socio-path. Its not "feel good" or anything to boast about, but its how things work. People essentially are cogs or data points. There is a great line from Big Short where Ben Rickard says, "you know what I hate about banking, it reduces people to numbers"....Part of the reason I moved out of the financial world as much as possible after getting setup, and have the goal to be removed from it completely within the next few years. Its not for everybody, but its how the game is played. Ask any PM honestly if they'd trade 1M senior citizens for an S&P rebound in 2021 and they all likely vote yes. I think if you are in the markets you have to be aware of these things and anticipate those directions. Its the stance that much of the US is taking through policy action.

The problem with that is that people can collectively panic and react in unpredictable ways. This epidemic has the potential to kill perhaps 0.5% of the population or ~1.7M people based on current data
 If you just remove 1.7M people from the economy with a large skew toward older people, then you could conclude it’s not a big deal. However if you think it through and consider that those 1.7M people collectively have a lot of money and perhaps don’t want to die and there are ~30M people with a lot of money in the same risk group, Who will behave very differently then it starts to matter.

Florida and  Arizona might be good examples of this. Are older people still going to move there (these states are big destinations for retirees) while they let the Virus circulate freely? If they are already there, will those people spent money in restaurants etc? Unlike the millennials, those folks tend to have a lot of money, so it does matter what they think and how they feel.

Florida has a big tourism industry on top of the retirees l so how this will be going? Even if you aren’t scared for your life, it’s not a great prospect to contract a disease that is far worse than having a flu for 2-3 weeks? Worth going to Disneyland for? Then there are European and Asian travelers which at this point are going to be a zero, as they will require quarantine upon coming back most likely. Most folks from these countries won’t bother visiting the US anyways for a while. So, I think the economic impact of this delayed wave in these states will be significant.

The good news and the reason why Mr. Market hasn’t panicked yet, is they death rates are still low. I think they will go up somewhat but hopefully we will never seen the levels seen in the NE from March/April again anywhere.

Exactly—you can’t just look at deaths and ignore the second/third order effects. Certainly not in a consumption oriented economy like the U.S....airlines, restaurants, retail, hotels—many of these are low margin businesses and even a 10-15% revenue hit can be devastating. To think that “isolating seniors” will somehow spare the economy pain is nuts.

The best thing that could have been done for the economy was to act early—January/February—we did not. Then the next thing was to ensure it did not rise again in the U.S. once you stop the initial surge...as you are seeing we also did not achieve this. So now we have EU countries mostly moving past this because they did what was needed and U.S. stuck in viral quagmire with even R governors scaling back reopening now and closing bars...

As was said way back—an ounce of prevention would have been worth pounds and pounds of cure, but our federal leadership is at best uninterested in being proactive and and worst exacerbating things by denying and holding indoor rallies in AZ, TX, OK...if you think it’s political, then oh well
For analytical eyes only
https://twitter.com/LumeGroup