Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 681358 times)

Spekulatius

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #7630 on: September 15, 2020, 04:25:38 AM »
Let me bet, other developed countries will get vaccinated at 90%+ rate and be done with it faster than the US. I can't understand the distrusts of the US citizen toward scientists and institutions. Scientific theory, and infrastructure improvement made it so that within 200 years most of us live better than kings on many metrics.

Maybe that is just how the CEO of USA conveys it's message, IMO it feels rushed and improvised and that make the population nervous. They feel something is off, or the message is blurred... because as I recall a few years ago the CEO of USA was a bit of a vaccine skeptical. Funny how someone words has a impact on the populace actions much later one.

For some reasons, some people fight innovations that have been proven again and again... and again. If the trials have been done in proper form I'll get me, my parents and my family vaccinated without questions. Why would anybody do otherwise? Don't we want to walk in a store breeding freely and see the smile of our neighbors when they feel great? It's in our best interest... just prove to all of us that the diligence has been done and that it's not some kind of banana republic scheme to win our votes.

BeerBaron

You just need to look here to come to the conclusion that the rollout of the vaccine will be difficult:
https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/vovid-19-vaccine-give-it-a-shot-or-mot/

I would think that they give first dibs to first responders (nurses have many mandatory vaccinations anyways), then essential workers and have mandatory vaccinations for school (unless they choose online).

I would also think about talking to economist about a good incentive program. Maybe cash incentives? There is a risk that A homeless person gets three shots for cash, but I would rather have that than many of them being superspreaders. Time to think this through, imo.
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mattee2264

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #7631 on: September 15, 2020, 04:45:32 AM »

 I think easiest is to make a vaccination certificate akin to a passport. If you need a vaccine certificate to get into bars, restaurants, travel on planes, and go to work then people will still have the freedom of choice to refuse a vaccine but will find life incredibly limiting.

 

StubbleJumper

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #7632 on: September 15, 2020, 05:07:57 AM »
In the meantime, if present trends continue, it appears that, by the time the vaccines come, only a minority of people will want them. Only 51% of adults would get it today.


Why?
Many reasons including trust, politicization of issues, confused messages etc
Based on what SJ mentioned last July (in relation to the younger cohorts): "You can appeal to people's sense of solidarity and goodwill to their fellow man all you want, but in the end, people will make a decision based on their own individual risk and benefit." So maybe many are using an inverse Pascal's wager to decide: what I have got to lose (rare side effect) versus no significant gain with the vaccine from an immunity standpoint. There is little to gain from a vaccination program where such a high percentage of the group is taking an individual perspective on this. i wonder if we should just decide on our own what is good for all of us. At noon today, i participated in a webinar from public health and the 'expert' said that this was one of the biggest challenges that they had to deal with during the community spread.



Strangely enough, if a fully effective vaccine were available today, a 51% immunization rate might just be adequate to achieve herd immunity in the US.  If you believe that one-third of Americans have already had covid, and if half of the other two-thirds choose to get immunized, that would result in about two-thirds of the population being resistant to covid, which is roughly what might be required to send that R0 below 1 on a long-term basis.

As time passes, I increasingly expect that a large portion of young adults will abstain from the immunization, and unless school boards make the shot mandatory, I suspect that a considerable portion of parents will not have the shot given to their children.  If the meta-analysis summarized in Table 4 of this paper is anywhere close to correct, it would be completely understandable that people in their 20s might not lose any sleep about not getting the vaccine: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v4.full.pdf+html 


SJ

cwericb

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #7633 on: September 15, 2020, 05:10:19 AM »
Self test for Covid 19

1) Pour a shot of whisky, gin or rum into a glass.
2) See if you can smell it.
3) If you can smell it then drink it.
4) If you can taste it, it is reasonable to assume you are currently free of the virus.

I tested myself nine times last night and I was virus free each time, thank goodness.

I will test myself again today because I have developed a headache which can also be a symptom.
Politicians and diapers must be changed often, and for the same reason. - Mark Twain

Castanza

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #7634 on: September 15, 2020, 05:46:40 AM »

 I think easiest is to make a vaccination certificate akin to a passport. If you need a vaccine certificate to get into bars, restaurants, travel on planes, and go to work then people will still have the freedom of choice to refuse a vaccine but will find life incredibly limiting.

Yeah, maybe they can make it shaped like a little gold star and require people to wear it on their person visible for all.... ::)
Core: MSFT | GOOG | | VZ | INTC | RTX | MSGS | BATRK | TPL | USB | PNC | BAC | PCYO | GRBK | PLNT | ESPO | HACK

cherzeca

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #7635 on: September 15, 2020, 04:16:53 PM »

cherzeca

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #7636 on: September 15, 2020, 04:51:49 PM »
didn't two Nobel prize winners independently say this as well (though not in a report like this):  https://thenationalpulse.com/breaking/whistleblower-dr-yan-releases-report-suggesting-coronavirus-was-lab-modified/


Cigarbutt

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #7637 on: September 15, 2020, 07:17:32 PM »
isolation of a promising antibody molecule:  https://www.scribd.com/document/476146747/Pi-is-009286742031148-x#from_embed
Yes, this is quite exciting (for CV and all other infectious diseases) but we are still very early in the game. You may want to note that this is passive immunity versus active immunity from a vaccine. The antibodies or pieces of antibodies that are neutralizing and that are to-be-laboratory-produced, if and when proven, will be useful in only pockets of disease activity where protection is felt to be necessary based on specific criteria (risk of, or recent exposure, once sick etc). Passive immunity is very short term. Neutralizing antibodies arising as a result of a vaccine (if and when proven) will also tend to go away rapidly but some 'memory' (this is really fascinating stuff) is likely to remain within our dear B-cells.
There are a lot of bright and motivated people working on this and the odds are that something good will come, somehow, as part of the efforts. For the financially inclined, passive vs active immunity is like liquidity vs solvency when dealing with distress. Both are important but solvency is more encompassing. Maybe the Fed will backstop the synthetic antibodies.

didn't two Nobel prize winners independently say this as well (though not in a report like this):  https://thenationalpulse.com/breaking/whistleblower-dr-yan-releases-report-suggesting-coronavirus-was-lab-modified/
This post of yours is absolutely interesting to me but not for the intent that was premeditated. The real reason for the response is found below, as a follow-up to Spekulatius' post. You appear to be bright and knowledgeable and you even showed what seemed to be authentic empathy at some point so your post is a head-scratcher for me, at least to some degree. Last century, i got some scientific training and learned to think of the data first and then to deal with credibility and that's what i'll do below as a response to your post but i also completed post-graduate law training (i think you're a lawyer) and learned to combine data and credibility assessment simultaneously with the proviso that the expert needs to be certified as such first, at least under formal circumstances. It's hard to certify you as an expert with the info, as submitted.
You had brought up the idea before and some comments had been made including in relation to one of the Nobel laureates that you refer to. The serious data i've looked at for this continue to suggest that the virus was not modified in the lab but this is still work in progress
""In order to insert an HIV sequence into this genome, molecular tools are needed, and that can only be done in a laboratory," he added."
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-launches-full-scale-investigation-wuhan-lab
Pentagon suggests otherwise:
https://futurism.com/neoscope/us-military-unlikely-covid-19-created-lab-bioweapon
Itís a big enough disaster to investigate closely and maybe even go down some rabbit holes, but the way the virus got started as well as Occamís razor and existing genetic evidence suggests that this virus got its start in nature.
It's hard to disprove theories which can be unfortunate for alleged conspiracies of various sorts.
1st step: evidence
Most of the genomic work that came out suggests that the mutations were natural (although not 100% sure).
A good example (quite 'scientific' but included as some may be interested; i know Gregmal for instance has an interest in advanced genomics):
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
2nd step: source
The main source, Mr Luc Montagnier, after the work that led to the Nobel prize, has become REALLY bizarre. He has postulated about the use of antibiotics for autism, DNA "teleportation" and especially about the "memory" of water. (bad-taste joke removed here)
The second Nobel laureate you refer to (Dr. Honjo) had to make the record straight:
https://infotagion.com/factcheck-did-nobel-prize-winner-say-covid-19-came-from-a-lab/

As far as the third source, here's a tidbit from Wikipedia (not the best source but enough for me at this point):
"Later in September Yan published a research paper named "Unusual Features of the SARS-CoV-2 Genome Suggesting Sophisticated Laboratory Modification Rather Than Natural Evolution and Delineation of Its Probable Synthetic Route." In the paper's abstract, it stated that "SARS-CoV-2 shows biological characteristics that are inconsistent with a naturally occurring, zoonotic virus" and that it could have been created in lab within 6 months.[26][27] One reason for scepticism is that the paper was published under the Rule of Law Society & Rule of Law Foundation in New York, which is owned by Guo Mengui, who is a friend of anti-Chinese US citizen and far-right evangelist, Steve Bannon."

...
You just need to look here to come to the conclusion that the rollout of the vaccine will be difficult:
https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/vovid-19-vaccine-give-it-a-shot-or-mot/
I would think that they give first dibs to first responders (nurses have many mandatory vaccinations anyways), then essential workers and have mandatory vaccinations for school (unless they choose online).
I would also think about talking to economist about a good incentive program. Maybe cash incentives? There is a risk that A homeless person gets three shots for cash, but I would rather have that than many of them being superspreaders. Time to think this through, imo.
Cash incentives may be a step too far but who knows? In selected circumstances, there are sound strategies that can apply when the outcome is clearly one-sided in order to optimize behavior and decision-making without compromising personal autonomy (eg vaccines, organ donation etc). Nudging strategies (look for libertarian vs paternalistic nudges) that include default options with possible opting out can be interesting. Many people (a growing number...) hold strong beliefs against vaccines but many are simply lazy or indifferent and then issues such as availability, cost, simplicity can make a significant difference. Most people tend to show spontaneous sympathy (even empathy and even benevolence) under the right circumstances. Simple strategies can result in win-win scenarios.
The worrisome part (that's the real reason behind this long post) is the post-truth populist era that we've entered and that's playing out under Covid. It's normal that some people reject options such as vaccines based on some kind of rational process. That's OK. The problem is when a critical mass of people (that includes some very intelligent folks) start to develop motivated resistance based on raw intuition when level 2 deliberate thinking is required. An unfortunate result may be that some people may become more entrenched in their beliefs when exposed to genuine high-quality evidence (have you seen this in social media? :) ). It's called the backfire effect and it results from distorted reasoning. This tribal way to think is reinforced by simple and repetitive (and wrong) easy answers. i've come to believe that this is becoming a huge problem. A potential solution may involve to patiently and respectfully deal with the issue by politely sharing knowledge and analysis, one by one. To delay or defuse the trigger, i hope that an appeal to reason may be helpful. i would call this a nudge to reason, to slowly but surely reverse the drift.
« Last Edit: September 15, 2020, 07:19:49 PM by Cigarbutt »

cherzeca

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #7638 on: September 16, 2020, 06:54:58 AM »
@cigar. I don't understand your response, but that is ok.  my only point is that this virologist who had to escape from china knows the lay of the land in these laboratories and I think her argument requires attention in the context of what these labs were doing.  I do not know microbiology well enough to discern viral natural mutation v human intervention (though she certainly does), but I do believe that introducing Bannon into this conversation is an absurd diversion.

Cigarbutt

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #7639 on: September 16, 2020, 08:13:06 AM »
@cigar. I don't understand your response, but that is ok.  my only point is that this virologist who had to escape from china knows the lay of the land in these laboratories and I think her argument requires attention in the context of what these labs were doing.  I do not know microbiology well enough to discern viral natural mutation v human intervention (though she certainly does), but I do believe that introducing Bannon into this conversation is an absurd diversion.
Hmmm... :)
So, more absurd diversion based on the fact that the 'scientist' used essentially unsubstantiated claims, went through a non-peer-reviewed process and published the study in a non-scientific journal funded by a party who is closely aligned with somebody voicing unusual opinions and who recently got arrested for fraud:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8738733/Study-claiming-covid-Chinese-lab-published-groups-founded-Steve-Bannon.html
i think the word absurd applies but not in relation to the diversion you describe.
Are you (like your Scientist-in-Chief yesterday) also confusing herd immunity with herd mentality?
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In related news, Google just announced a deal with Singapore (i have mixed feelings about the Singapore model and about this deal but it's interesting) whereby good behaviors including vaccinations will be rewarded using some kind of nudge strategy, extending a strategy that was used during the pandemic in order to contain spread:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-16/singapore-to-pay-citizens-for-keeping-healthy-with-apple-watch
« Last Edit: September 16, 2020, 08:15:06 AM by Cigarbutt »