Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 728876 times)

Cigarbutt

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #7710 on: September 22, 2020, 06:10:17 PM »
LOL...
“If wishes were horses, beggars would ride.
If turnips were watches, I'd wear one by my side.
If "if's" and "and's" were pots and pans,
There'd be no work for tinkers' hands.
If ands and buts were candy and nuts
Every day would be Christmas.”
What is truly fascinating is that (the poster who thinks this discussion is reaching unbelievable surrealism) went to the trouble of posting the graphic portraying the 7-day rolling new cases per million population, which shows pretty clearly that the US, the Netherlands, Spain and France are all currently in the same boat when it comes to new covid cases.  Denmark, Canada and the UK are rapidly heading towards that boat...

It should be pretty obvious by now that the posters in this thread who suggested in March that the lock-down measures undertaken by a great many countries could only temporarily hold down the spread of covid.  In most countries, the lock-down measures were relaxed in May/June and look where they are at today.  They are exactly back to where they started in March.  The difference now is that I suspect that very few of those countries will find the popular support among the population to implement another aggressive lock-down.  In short, my guess is that those countries will largely come around to the US approach of having a relatively high tolerance to the spread of the virus.
SJ
SJ, i'll stick to the data and there are three underlying assumptions that need to be seriously questioned here.
1-This 'wave' is the same as other 'waves'.
We've learned that this assumption has not held mostly so far and often to a very significant degree. The mortality/morbidity per 'case' profile of each 'wave' has improved due to many known and unknown factors, with the obvious known factors being: more testing (lower percent positives), implication of younger cohorts and 'we' (medical, right, left and central) are getting better at this over time, in terms of cost-effective measures. Even in the US (where 'improvements' were perhaps less planned and coordinated), if you agree that there were three 'waves' (with waves 2 and 3 being commingled), the percent positive peaks went from 21% to 8-9% to 5-7%, with mortality profiles improving over time. This is likely to continue unless there develops a significant seasonal factor or if the virus mutates in a significantly detrimental way (unlikely).
2-The spread is inevitable
It is useless to debate that this fatalistic approach would have meant very different results in relation to many previous viral episodes. Also, some countries have been able to achieve spread containment, at least so far and for a significant period of time. See below and remember to look at the left hand scale and compare to similar graphs shown in a previous post:

3-Front-loading of deaths and morbidity will prove less costly than the differential limitations on economic activity.
At this point, this remains an unproven assumption. Whether this is part of a grand plan or an outcome of improvisation, it appears that Spain, France, UK and the US have taken the lead in terms of human costs (unevenly distributed). The sustainability approach has not been proven up to this point.


cwericb

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #7711 on: September 22, 2020, 06:20:04 PM »
In the end the virus always wins. There is no magic and there was nothing anyone could have done to prevent this in any country in any part of the world.

Our resident nihilist awakens. I'll send a postcard to my brother-in-law in Vietnam to share the bad news. He keeps saying they don't have Covid there.

Just for Othopa's info our small Canadian Province has had
57 cases,
57 recovered cases,
zero active cases,
zero hospitalizations,
zero community spread,
and zero deaths.
Applying US figures we should have had 100 deaths to date.
Politicians and diapers must be changed often, and for the same reason. - Mark Twain

Gregmal

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #7712 on: September 22, 2020, 06:23:28 PM »
Viking, out of respect, as unlike many others you are a high quality poster who does contribute to this forum in a positive way.. I will attempt to address your question but kind of point out that I was mainly referring to cwericb's claim that the opinion(which you are entitled to) you stated, was an "irrefutable fact". As cubsfan sarcastically pointed out, it isn't really a yes/no question. No more so than "is chocolate ice cream better than vanilla, yes or no?". Or stating that "the new Haagen Dazs flavor has a historic amount of chocolate in it!"....Its subjective and laden with interpretations. Unless:

1. "historic rate", "far greater than other political figure in US history"...do you have data outlining the number and type of lies told by all 45 presidents? Is this just what they say in public, or also private? How was this data obtained and is it consistent in its application amongst all 45 presidents?

2. Ardent supporter of science....Honestly, I have no clue. Like I said, I dont know the dude and at best these are just interpretations we make based off the information that gets fed to us. I mean, I dont even know whether or not people I do know consider themselves staunch scientists or supporters of science. Its kind of an odd thing and not exactly relevant to most things unless you are a scientist by career or hobby. You know who is a scientist and ardent supporter of it? Anthony Fauci. Who for a long time was adamantly against wearing masks. Yet is a hero to the anti Trump crowd...except for when he speaks positively of Trump, then he is ignored.

I could do the same for 3-7 but I think you get my point. Facts are indeed irrefutable and indisputable. The Yankees currently lead Toronto 7-1. Fact. Gerrit Cole is an overrated bum who benefited from playing for a cheating organization and now gets tons of run support playing for a team that buys all its championships and thats why he is currently the winning pitcher for the game.....see how one is clean and clear and the other is tainted by adjectives and subjective interpretation?

Greg, it cracks me up. Much of my family thinks i am a right wing lunatic :-)

In terms of Trump i simply cannot understand the logic people use.

You ask for proof that he lies at a historic rate. Below is one link. It is irrefutable that Trump lies at a historic rate. Many web sites have documented this (are they perfect? Do they sketch an accurate picture of his behaviour? Yes). Many people have looked in to this. If someone wants to answer this question it is very easy.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Veracity_of_statements_by_Donald_Trump

Anyways, i am just trying to understand the logic of Trump supporters. And until someone provides some i will continue to shake my head in disbelief. But i will try and remain inquisitive and open minded :-)

‘When the student is ready the teacher appears.‘ I am trying to be the student when it comes to understanding Trump supporters. But i guess i am not ready yet.

PS: do i think Biden has the onset of dementia? Perhaps. Is Trudeau a poor leader? Yes. Leaders are not perfect. But please, be rational. Call a spade a spade.

Yea look, Ive said it before and have no problem saying it again. Trump is POS human being, from what I can ascertain. But the character of a politician has never effected my life. Their policies do. The laws that parties impose upon people do. Taxes do. If nothing else, this is one pretty huge lesson to be learned from COVID. NYC will be learning it the hard way for the next decade most likely. Ive never personally given any weight to what a president/senator/governor has said or thought. I dont care. I live my life and try to drown out the noise. When it comes to supporting a position, the options in America are democrat or republican. If there was an instance where an independent or third party has a chance, I would heavily consider that. Until then, its ham sandwich or boca burger....Neither my favorite but make do with what we have.
« Last Edit: September 22, 2020, 06:28:13 PM by Gregmal »

RichardGibbons

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #7713 on: September 22, 2020, 06:37:19 PM »
Yes, the people who were saying that Denmark was the best model are pretty quiet these days.  Denmark is at ~500 cases per day about now, for a population of a shade under 6 million people.  So, take Denmark and multiply by about 60, and that would be similar to the US.  So, 500 x 60 = 30,000 (still lower than the current number of new cases in the US, but not appreciably).  All of the people claiming that Sweden was misguided and that Denmark's test and traceback approach was dialed-in are pretty quiet in September.

Hmm, Denmark vs Sweden.  Why would anyone choose to just have Denmark's trashed economy when they can instead have Sweden's equally trashed economy and but also five times the death rate? (Note the grey dots, the Scandinavian countries that are the best comparatives for Sweden.)



Like, is it really that important to Trump fans that a bunch of extra people die without actually improving the economy? And if you're going to say, we "we should be like that country", why wouldn't you just choose South Korea? A tiny death rate and a robust economy. What's not to like?

Spekulatius

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #7714 on: September 22, 2020, 07:08:28 PM »
Ok, I live near NH and the economy for all practical purposes is open. As far as restaurants, they allowed indoor dining for quite some time (I am not sure it was ever really closed) and now at 100% capacity. Pretty much else is allowed to be open too. Live free or die...

When you look at the reality on what is happening though then most places running friction of their capacity. Many places are takeout out only. Hotels are pretty empty on most parts (we travelled last month). We also travelled though upstate NY and it’s pretty much the same. There are probably more restriction in upstate NY but essentially, the feel is pretty much the same. We did find that in either location, business were pretty adherent to wearing masks etc. and other precautions.

Now NH in a way is a lot Sweden ex their capital Stockholm, Imo. NH also has done quite well on so far with this epidemic, which is probably due to low population density, but also due to socioeconomic factors (low percentage of minorities within population etc). We live in MA near the NH border and enjoy the relative freedom, but would the same work in NYC it areas with a totally different socioeconomic profile? I kind of doubt it and the data shows otherwise. I also think it is not  really straightforward to assume what works in one country/area will just work in another with the same results.
« Last Edit: September 22, 2020, 07:10:17 PM by Spekulatius »
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Cigarbutt

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #7715 on: September 24, 2020, 04:55:49 AM »
For those interested in the 'data' perspective, there is an event today that discusses some interesting topics.
It's possible to register or even to spend about 5 minutes reading a summary of the papers. One of the papers for example discusses the economic impact vs deaths equation, a topic RichardGibbons mentioned two posts before.
https://www.brookings.edu/events/bpea-fall-2020-covid-19-and-the-economy/

KJP

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #7716 on: September 24, 2020, 05:16:59 AM »
Yes, the people who were saying that Denmark was the best model are pretty quiet these days.  Denmark is at ~500 cases per day about now, for a population of a shade under 6 million people.  So, take Denmark and multiply by about 60, and that would be similar to the US.  So, 500 x 60 = 30,000 (still lower than the current number of new cases in the US, but not appreciably).  All of the people claiming that Sweden was misguided and that Denmark's test and traceback approach was dialed-in are pretty quiet in September.

Hmm, Denmark vs Sweden.  Why would anyone choose to just have Denmark's trashed economy when they can instead have Sweden's equally trashed economy and but also five times the death rate? (Note the grey dots, the Scandinavian countries that are the best comparatives for Sweden.)



Like, is it really that important to Trump fans that a bunch of extra people die without actually improving the economy? And if you're going to say, we "we should be like that country", why wouldn't you just choose South Korea? A tiny death rate and a robust economy. What's not to like?

The difference in death rates in what I assume to be roughly comparable countries is very interesting.  Can anyone link to what they believe to be sound analyses of, for example, Greece v. Italy or Austria v. France?  Similarly, Korea or Japan vs. United States?  I apologize if these have already been posted; I haven't scrolled through the whole thread.


Cigarbutt

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #7717 on: September 24, 2020, 05:18:34 PM »
...
The difference in death rates in what I assume to be roughly comparable countries is very interesting.  Can anyone link to what they believe to be sound analyses of, for example, Greece v. Italy or Austria v. France?  Similarly, Korea or Japan vs. United States?  I apologize if these have already been posted; I haven't scrolled through the whole thread.
Short version: easy answer of your choice.

Long version: your question(s) is (are) impossible to answer satisfactorily. Since this is a topic where we deal with incomplete information and the process can be compared to investment analysis (boiling down a question to key inputs), here's some data dealing with this evolving and un-finished business.

The link below is interesting because it allows you to choose countries and to compare:
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-health-economy

The part below that goes from 1:36:25 to 1:52:20 (presentation by Chad Jones and Jesus Fernandez) suggests conceptual tools to assess the trade-off (if there is one) between economic cost and deaths and is food for thought when trying to balance policy vs luck impact. The four-quadrant concept is interesting: good-good, good-bad, bad-good, bad-bad. Trying to copy the good-good may be a reasonable idea.
https://www.brookings.edu/events/bpea-fall-2020-covid-19-and-the-economy/?utm_campaign=Events%3A%20Economic%20Studies&utm_medium=email&utm_content=95916435&utm_source=hs_email

You may want to consider that the virus story has several chapters and the four-quadrant concept (good-good etc) can also be used along the initial containment-subsequent community spread mitigation and along the initial phase vs sustainability which is still an evolving story with still not fully settled evidence.

If you like to reduce factors into key ingredients, here's a list supported by some solid evidence (not necessarily listed in an order of importance):
-area close to major high-traffic international airports
-population density and cluster of highly populated agglomerations
-demographic profile: age, risk factors and multi-generational homes
-institutional setup of chronic care institutions (physical, human resources, equipment and protocols)
-cultural factors, including already present attitudes and behaviors as well as readiness to adopt collective policies and effectively comply with them
-the actual policies (from simple and basic to more extensive 'lockdowns')
-good or bad luck

Given the exponential character of the disease (both at the individual and collective levels), it's useful to use a viral load concept (how much disease enters the population), a risk factor concept (how the population has adapted already or is ready to adapt), an immune reaction concept (how a population spontaneously reacts to the disease) and the medical care concept (how proper and timely treatment (policy) may make a difference). Given the exponential character, timing and uniformity of application may be incredibly significant when a certain set of risk factors are assembled.

Comparing Greece with Italy is interesting. The following suggests that, like Czech and others, Greece responded rapidly, effectively and uniformly to the initial phase. However, recent developments show that Greece's recent response (like Czech and others) points to significant pain ahead.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-greece-learned-from-italys-and-spains-mistakes-and-used-rapid/

Comparing Austria-Germany to Spain-France is interesting. It looks like this will be good-good vs bad-bad when comparing both 'waves'.

Japan is a special case and their result may reflect their older but much healthier population, their strong institutional support for the elderly, some kind of innate immunity, established cultural traits for natural social distancing and masks and likely a higher readiness to socially conform to centrally-planned adjustments.

The US has been discussed in the previous 771 pages.

So there are many uncontrollable variables and luck factors but it seems that historical path-dependency is not destiny and a strategy is unlikely to work if you don't have one.


« Last Edit: September 24, 2020, 05:23:41 PM by Cigarbutt »

Spekulatius

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #7718 on: September 24, 2020, 06:32:51 PM »
Thailand is also an example of a not so rich country that had managed VOVId-19 well:
https://youtu.be/MnxO48joRZQ
It is not mentioned here directly, but Thai people in the City often wear masks anyways. Thailand also has subsidized Basic health care affordable even for poor people. While I doubted some numbers, my wife is from Thailand and she told me that numbers are definitely low, based on what she is hearing from her friends living there. People have taken this seriously since February when cases from Chinese travelers propped up.
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orthopa

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #7719 on: September 25, 2020, 10:06:57 AM »
In the end the virus always wins. There is no magic and there was nothing anyone could have done to prevent this in any country in any part of the world.

Our resident nihilist awakens. I'll send a postcard to my brother-in-law in Vietnam to share the bad news. He keeps saying they don't have Covid there.

When you start the go fund me for the canadian victims memorial wall let me know. Post the link if you started it already.