Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 805179 times)

muscleman

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #7910 on: October 19, 2020, 09:27:43 AM »
Anybody tracking mRNA's vaccine trial enrollment rates? I am pretty upset that they used to enroll 4-5k patients per week but has been super slow since mid September. It is down to 2k a week and then 1k a week.
https://www.modernatx.com/cove-study
With nearly 3 million volunteers signed up for COVID vaccine trials, I don't understand why this is the case except for intentional delays.
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Cigarbutt

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #7911 on: October 19, 2020, 03:05:42 PM »
"There have been a number of high-quality randomized controlled trials (RCTs) demonstrating that personal protective measures such as hand hygiene and face masks have, at best, a small effect on influenza transmission, although higher compliance in a severe pandemic might improve effectiveness."
The problem with the old, pre-Covid RCTs is compliance. You can give masks to kids in a dorm, but they are unlikely to wear them if the risk is small (e.g. seasonal flu) and there is no culture of mask wearing.
But when compliance is high, evidence suggests they are effective. One of the referenced studies:
Quote
In 154 households in which interventions were implemented within 36 hours of symptom onset in the index patient, transmission of RT-PCR-confirmed infection seemed reduced, an effect attributable to fewer infections among participants using facemasks plus hand hygiene (adjusted odds ratio, 0.33 [95% CI, 0.13 to 0.87]).
There is also the possibility that, on top of lower transmission, the severity of disease transfer is less because of lower viral loads. There are some data and conceptual reasons behind this hypothesis.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2026913
Another data point is the fact that frontline healthcare workers working in high risk areas (concentrated active cases shedding virus and high-risk procedures for droplets and aerosols) and equipped with appropriate for risk equipment did not, at least on a large scale, develop disease as a result of nosocomial transmission.
Anybody tracking mRNA's vaccine trial enrollment rates? I am pretty upset that they used to enroll 4-5k patients per week but has been super slow since mid September. It is down to 2k a week and then 1k a week.
https://www.modernatx.com/cove-study
With nearly 3 million volunteers signed up for COVID vaccine trials, I don't understand why this is the case except for intentional delays.
i assume your thesis is that there is some kind of conspiracy going on to avoid meeting certain deadlines?
A few observations:
-Moderna is very highly motivated (too much?) to meet deadlines
-Moderna was looking for 30k 'volunteers' by September and adjusted their protocol of selection to better reflect the underlying population
-Without going into controversial issues, there are understandable reasons why certain communities may not volunteer as much because of a deficit in trust
-----
For those interested, concerning the vaccines, health disparities and especially excess mortality, JAMA has recently released (especially the October 12 issues) many interesting and impactful studies and commentaries.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/newonline

Spekulatius

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #7912 on: October 19, 2020, 04:16:11 PM »
^ Interesting papers. The paper below seems to indicate that excess death were somewhat undercounted. Granted Alzheimer victims don’t have a great prognosis anyways, but still:
Quote
Excess Deaths From COVID-19 and Other Causes, March-July 2020
Steven H. Woolf, MD, MPH1; Derek A. Chapman, PhD1; Roy T. Sabo, PhD2; et al
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Spekulatius

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #7913 on: October 19, 2020, 04:28:48 PM »
The Swiss Kanton “Schwyz” went from “doing great” to “ Oh crap!” Within 2 weeks. Cause is apparently a super spreader  Jodler event (Swiss folks singing) with 600 attendants. Rapidly rising and constraint hospital capacity are the result. Schwyz is a relatively sparsely populated Kanton in central Switzerland.

« Last Edit: October 19, 2020, 04:38:26 PM by Spekulatius »
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Investor20

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #7914 on: October 19, 2020, 06:00:03 PM »
Anybody tracking mRNA's vaccine trial enrollment rates? I am pretty upset that they used to enroll 4-5k patients per week but has been super slow since mid September. It is down to 2k a week and then 1k a week.
https://www.modernatx.com/cove-study
With nearly 3 million volunteers signed up for COVID vaccine trials, I don't understand why this is the case except for intentional delays.

The anti-Trumpers wont agree, but if you follow the Great Barrington Declaration Herd Immunity is not a strategy, but inevitable.
 Herd Immunity, Dr. Bhattacharya says is like gravity.  The plane is going to come down sometime.  The question is how to land safely.

This makes the therapeutics and vaccines much more important and only US government with Warp Speed project got them developed very fast.  The shortest vaccine development I believe is for mumps with four years. 

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/31/us/coronavirus-vaccine-timetable-concerns-experts-invs/index.html
The timetable for a coronavirus vaccine is 18 months. Experts say that's risky (April 1st)

White House started working on warp speed project with aggressive timelines, and seems to be beating the 18 month time line which it self experts were skeptical.

To quote from article "Dr. Emily Erbelding, an infectious disease expert at NIAID -- which is part of the National Institutes of Health -- said the typical vaccine takes between eight and 10 years to develop. "
« Last Edit: October 19, 2020, 06:07:11 PM by Investor20 »

beerbaron

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #7915 on: October 19, 2020, 07:02:19 PM »
Anybody tracking mRNA's vaccine trial enrollment rates? I am pretty upset that they used to enroll 4-5k patients per week but has been super slow since mid September. It is down to 2k a week and then 1k a week.
https://www.modernatx.com/cove-study
With nearly 3 million volunteers signed up for COVID vaccine trials, I don't understand why this is the case except for intentional delays.

The anti-Trumpers wont agree, but if you follow the Great Barrington Declaration Herd Immunity is not a strategy, but inevitable.
 Herd Immunity, Dr. Bhattacharya says is like gravity.  The plane is going to come down sometime.  The question is how to land safely.

This makes the therapeutics and vaccines much more important and only US government with Warp Speed project got them developed very fast.  The shortest vaccine development I believe is for mumps with four years. 

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/31/us/coronavirus-vaccine-timetable-concerns-experts-invs/index.html
The timetable for a coronavirus vaccine is 18 months. Experts say that's risky (April 1st)

White House started working on warp speed project with aggressive timelines, and seems to be beating the 18 month time line which it self experts were skeptical.

To quote from article "Dr. Emily Erbelding, an infectious disease expert at NIAID -- which is part of the National Institutes of Health -- said the typical vaccine takes between eight and 10 years to develop. "

I'd say warp speed vaccine is something that makes me unwary if that means steps are being skipped. China and Russia are already bragging that they are ahead of the vaccine race. I suspect part of their lead is skipping steps. But what if skipping a step brings death to 0.1% of the population? That's 1.5M death...

I'll trust to get a vaccine if all the steps of the stages have been properly respected. Anything else is just rolling dice. Apparently, the FDA is holding their stand toward pressure. Let's hope it stays that way. Trump has little to do with how fast a vaccine gets released... provided he does not force to skip steps. Tests take time and you can't make a baby in one month by making 9 women pregnant. You can however provide funding and make sure the production capacity is ready when it gets approved. But again, any government can calculate the risk/reward over 4T$ deficit VS 10B$ wasted production capacity. I'm sure even Canada, say's to it's pharmaceutical industries, money is no object.

BeerBaron

Investor20

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #7916 on: October 19, 2020, 10:35:38 PM »
Anybody tracking mRNA's vaccine trial enrollment rates? I am pretty upset that they used to enroll 4-5k patients per week but has been super slow since mid September. It is down to 2k a week and then 1k a week.
https://www.modernatx.com/cove-study
With nearly 3 million volunteers signed up for COVID vaccine trials, I don't understand why this is the case except for intentional delays.

The anti-Trumpers wont agree, but if you follow the Great Barrington Declaration Herd Immunity is not a strategy, but inevitable.
 Herd Immunity, Dr. Bhattacharya says is like gravity.  The plane is going to come down sometime.  The question is how to land safely.

This makes the therapeutics and vaccines much more important and only US government with Warp Speed project got them developed very fast.  The shortest vaccine development I believe is for mumps with four years. 

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/31/us/coronavirus-vaccine-timetable-concerns-experts-invs/index.html
The timetable for a coronavirus vaccine is 18 months. Experts say that's risky (April 1st)

White House started working on warp speed project with aggressive timelines, and seems to be beating the 18 month time line which it self experts were skeptical.

To quote from article "Dr. Emily Erbelding, an infectious disease expert at NIAID -- which is part of the National Institutes of Health -- said the typical vaccine takes between eight and 10 years to develop. "

I'd say warp speed vaccine is something that makes me unwary if that means steps are being skipped. China and Russia are already bragging that they are ahead of the vaccine race. I suspect part of their lead is skipping steps. But what if skipping a step brings death to 0.1% of the population? That's 1.5M death...

I'll trust to get a vaccine if all the steps of the stages have been properly respected. Anything else is just rolling dice. Apparently, the FDA is holding their stand toward pressure. Let's hope it stays that way. Trump has little to do with how fast a vaccine gets released... provided he does not force to skip steps. Tests take time and you can't make a baby in one month by making 9 women pregnant. You can however provide funding and make sure the production capacity is ready when it gets approved. But again, any government can calculate the risk/reward over 4T$ deficit VS 10B$ wasted production capacity. I'm sure even Canada, say's to it's pharmaceutical industries, money is no object.

BeerBaron

I am not sure if 0.1% (1 in 1000) death rate could be missed with a trial with over 30,000, upto 44000 in phase 3 - even at 1:1 treatment:placebo, that is 15000-22000 who got the vaccine. That would make missing at 0.1% 15 to 22 deaths.

And would everyone get it or only older and vulnerable?

Anyway 0.1% of 200 million would be 0.2 million.

"The companies said in a press release that they would increase the size of the study to 44,000 participants, up from an initial recruitment goal of 30,000 individuals"
https://www.statnews.com/2020/09/12/pfizer-and-biontech-announce-plan-to-expand-covid-19-vaccine-trial/

https://www.kare11.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/30000-volunteers-enroll-in-pfizers-covid-19-vaccine-trial/507-a6bfa39a-0822-4575-9667-5a15545667ca
Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine trial reaches initial goal of 30,000 volunteers
an additional 14,000 volunteers to expand the diversity of its phase 3 trial for a coronavirus vaccine.
« Last Edit: October 19, 2020, 10:39:22 PM by Investor20 »

Gregmal

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #7917 on: October 22, 2020, 01:43:31 PM »
Lots of vegetables being eaten in Europe right now...

Spekulatius

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #7918 on: October 22, 2020, 03:56:49 PM »
Lots of vegetables being eaten in Europe right now...

Europe got complacent. Cases here are rising too - in all regions. I think we will crack 100k cases/ day very quickly. Hospitalization is the one metric to  look at. The last waves topped out at 60k COVID-19 hospitalization. Once we get to this number, the hospitals system becomes strained, we are going to have local restrictions again.

Edit: another indicator - my wife went to Costco today and noticed that several items like paper, wipes were sold out, just like during the first wave. Apparently people are getting ready for things to come.
« Last Edit: October 22, 2020, 04:36:31 PM by Spekulatius »
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Viking

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #7919 on: October 22, 2020, 05:05:36 PM »
Lots of vegetables being eaten in Europe right now...

Europe got complacent. Cases here are rising too - in all regions. I think we will crack 100k cases/ day very quickly. Hospitalization is the one metric to  look at. The last waves topped out at 60k COVID-19 hospitalization. Once we get to this number, the hospitals system becomes strained, we are going to have local restrictions again.

Edit: another indicator - my wife went to Costco today and noticed that several items like paper, wipes were sold out, just like during the first wave. Apparently people are getting ready for things to come.

Yes. Do stupid things with the virus and let it get out of control and then be forced to brake (eventually) the economy. Where i live (BC) we are seeing a spike in cases due to weddings, funerals and gender reveal parties. People are ignoring the max 50 people limit. Right before flu season. Stupid is as stupid does.

North America and Europe are seeing a spike in cases at the worst possible time... up, up and away :-)