Coronavirus

[Spekulatius]

The Swiss Kanton “Schwyz” went from “doing great” to “ Oh crap!” Within 2 weeks. Cause is apparently a super spreader  Jodler event (Swiss folks singing) with 600 attendants. Rapidly rising and constraint hospital capacity are the result. Schwyz is a relatively sparsely populated Kanton in central Switzerland.

[Investor20]

Anybody tracking mRNA's vaccine trial enrollment rates? I am pretty upset that they used to enroll 4-5k patients per week but has been super slow since mid September. It is down to 2k a week and then 1k a week.
https://www.modernatx.com/cove-study
With nearly 3 million volunteers signed up for COVID vaccine trials, I don't understand why this is the case except for intentional delays.

The anti-Trumpers wont agree, but if you follow the Great Barrington Declaration Herd Immunity is not a strategy, but inevitable.
 Herd Immunity, Dr. Bhattacharya says is like gravity.  The plane is going to come down sometime.  The question is how to land safely.

This makes the therapeutics and vaccines much more important and only US government with Warp Speed project got them developed very fast.  The shortest vaccine development I believe is for mumps with four years. 

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/31/us/coronavirus-vaccine-timetable-concerns-experts-invs/index.html
The timetable for a coronavirus vaccine is 18 months. Experts say that's risky (April 1st)

White House started working on warp speed project with aggressive timelines, and seems to be beating the 18 month time line which it self experts were skeptical.

To quote from article "Dr. Emily Erbelding, an infectious disease expert at NIAID -- which is part of the National Institutes of Health -- said the typical vaccine takes between eight and 10 years to develop. "

[beerbaron]

Anybody tracking mRNA's vaccine trial enrollment rates? I am pretty upset that they used to enroll 4-5k patients per week but has been super slow since mid September. It is down to 2k a week and then 1k a week.
https://www.modernatx.com/cove-study
With nearly 3 million volunteers signed up for COVID vaccine trials, I don't understand why this is the case except for intentional delays.

The anti-Trumpers wont agree, but if you follow the Great Barrington Declaration Herd Immunity is not a strategy, but inevitable.
 Herd Immunity, Dr. Bhattacharya says is like gravity.  The plane is going to come down sometime.  The question is how to land safely.

This makes the therapeutics and vaccines much more important and only US government with Warp Speed project got them developed very fast.  The shortest vaccine development I believe is for mumps with four years. 

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/31/us/coronavirus-vaccine-timetable-concerns-experts-invs/index.html
The timetable for a coronavirus vaccine is 18 months. Experts say that's risky (April 1st)

White House started working on warp speed project with aggressive timelines, and seems to be beating the 18 month time line which it self experts were skeptical.

To quote from article "Dr. Emily Erbelding, an infectious disease expert at NIAID -- which is part of the National Institutes of Health -- said the typical vaccine takes between eight and 10 years to develop. "

I'd say warp speed vaccine is something that makes me unwary if that means steps are being skipped. China and Russia are already bragging that they are ahead of the vaccine race. I suspect part of their lead is skipping steps. But what if skipping a step brings death to 0.1% of the population? That's 1.5M death...

I'll trust to get a vaccine if all the steps of the stages have been properly respected. Anything else is just rolling dice. Apparently, the FDA is holding their stand toward pressure. Let's hope it stays that way. Trump has little to do with how fast a vaccine gets released... provided he does not force to skip steps. Tests take time and you can't make a baby in one month by making 9 women pregnant. You can however provide funding and make sure the production capacity is ready when it gets approved. But again, any government can calculate the risk/reward over 4T$ deficit VS 10B$ wasted production capacity. I'm sure even Canada, say's to it's pharmaceutical industries, money is no object.

BeerBaron

[Investor20]

Anybody tracking mRNA's vaccine trial enrollment rates? I am pretty upset that they used to enroll 4-5k patients per week but has been super slow since mid September. It is down to 2k a week and then 1k a week.
https://www.modernatx.com/cove-study
With nearly 3 million volunteers signed up for COVID vaccine trials, I don't understand why this is the case except for intentional delays.

The anti-Trumpers wont agree, but if you follow the Great Barrington Declaration Herd Immunity is not a strategy, but inevitable.
 Herd Immunity, Dr. Bhattacharya says is like gravity.  The plane is going to come down sometime.  The question is how to land safely.

This makes the therapeutics and vaccines much more important and only US government with Warp Speed project got them developed very fast.  The shortest vaccine development I believe is for mumps with four years. 

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/31/us/coronavirus-vaccine-timetable-concerns-experts-invs/index.html
The timetable for a coronavirus vaccine is 18 months. Experts say that's risky (April 1st)

White House started working on warp speed project with aggressive timelines, and seems to be beating the 18 month time line which it self experts were skeptical.

To quote from article "Dr. Emily Erbelding, an infectious disease expert at NIAID -- which is part of the National Institutes of Health -- said the typical vaccine takes between eight and 10 years to develop. "

I'd say warp speed vaccine is something that makes me unwary if that means steps are being skipped. China and Russia are already bragging that they are ahead of the vaccine race. I suspect part of their lead is skipping steps. But what if skipping a step brings death to 0.1% of the population? That's 1.5M death...

I'll trust to get a vaccine if all the steps of the stages have been properly respected. Anything else is just rolling dice. Apparently, the FDA is holding their stand toward pressure. Let's hope it stays that way. Trump has little to do with how fast a vaccine gets released... provided he does not force to skip steps. Tests take time and you can't make a baby in one month by making 9 women pregnant. You can however provide funding and make sure the production capacity is ready when it gets approved. But again, any government can calculate the risk/reward over 4T$ deficit VS 10B$ wasted production capacity. I'm sure even Canada, say's to it's pharmaceutical industries, money is no object.

BeerBaron

I am not sure if 0.1% (1 in 1000) death rate could be missed with a trial with over 30,000, upto 44000 in phase 3 - even at 1:1 treatment:placebo, that is 15000-22000 who got the vaccine. That would make missing at 0.1% 15 to 22 deaths.

And would everyone get it or only older and vulnerable?

Anyway 0.1% of 200 million would be 0.2 million.

"The companies said in a press release that they would increase the size of the study to 44,000 participants, up from an initial recruitment goal of 30,000 individuals"
https://www.statnews.com/2020/09/12/pfizer-and-biontech-announce-plan-to-expand-covid-19-vaccine-trial/

https://www.kare11.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/30000-volunteers-enroll-in-pfizers-covid-19-vaccine-trial/507-a6bfa39a-0822-4575-9667-5a15545667ca
Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine trial reaches initial goal of 30,000 volunteers
an additional 14,000 volunteers to expand the diversity of its phase 3 trial for a coronavirus vaccine.

[Gregmal]

Lots of vegetables being eaten in Europe right now...

[Spekulatius]

Lots of vegetables being eaten in Europe right now...

Europe got complacent. Cases here are rising too - in all regions. I think we will crack 100k cases/ day very quickly. Hospitalization is the one metric to  look at. The last waves topped out at 60k COVID-19 hospitalization. Once we get to this number, the hospitals system becomes strained, we are going to have local restrictions again.

Edit: another indicator - my wife went to Costco today and noticed that several items like paper, wipes were sold out, just like during the first wave. Apparently people are getting ready for things to come.

[Viking]

Lots of vegetables being eaten in Europe right now...

Europe got complacent. Cases here are rising too - in all regions. I think we will crack 100k cases/ day very quickly. Hospitalization is the one metric to  look at. The last waves topped out at 60k COVID-19 hospitalization. Once we get to this number, the hospitals system becomes strained, we are going to have local restrictions again.

Edit: another indicator - my wife went to Costco today and noticed that several items like paper, wipes were sold out, just like during the first wave. Apparently people are getting ready for things to come.

Yes. Do stupid things with the virus and let it get out of control and then be forced to brake (eventually) the economy. Where i live (BC) we are seeing a spike in cases due to weddings, funerals and gender reveal parties. People are ignoring the max 50 people limit. Right before flu season. Stupid is as stupid does.

North America and Europe are seeing a spike in cases at the worst possible time... up, up and away :-)

[Dalal.Holdings]

No worries, we've had "herd immunity" since the end of August...you just have to change the definition of "herd immunity" (it's the new moving of the goalposts, bro!)

Meanwhile, NZ shows what it looks like to actually "be tired of winning":

[DocSnowball]

Lots of vegetables being eaten in Europe right now...

Europe got complacent. Cases here are rising too - in all regions. I think we will crack 100k cases/ day very quickly. Hospitalization is the one metric to  look at. The last waves topped out at 60k COVID-19 hospitalization. Once we get to this number, the hospitals system becomes strained, we are going to have local restrictions again.

Edit: another indicator - my wife went to Costco today and noticed that several items like paper, wipes were sold out, just like during the first wave. Apparently people are getting ready for things to come.

Interesting - I had the same feeling and behavior at Costco yesterday, and ended up wondering if it was just me feeling that way or a lot of others. Purely anecdotal and likely biased.

Anthony Fauci spoke at the annual ID society meeting yesterday and shared this graph comparing US and Europe's curves to date (attached) - looks ominous. Between the lines, he was very critical of the way US never shut down in a coordinated way and then reopened too hastily. He seemed to be very very concerned about what the next 3-4 weeks will bring. I agree with you it's the hospitalization rates that will drive partial closures. The frightening thing is that the way the US is responding, a large increase in cases and hospitalizations seems inevitable.

On the bright side, seems like Moderna's vaccine enrollment is expected to be completed within days and Pfizer's within a few weeks. The trial design is to follow up patients for two months after second dose, but if there is a significant number of cases in the control arm, interim analysis may reveal results sooner. When results come, throw in more time for FDA approval, and some more for rollout. Then wait for two doses 21-28 days apart to be given to be effective, starting with healthcare workers and high risk individuals. Even in this best case, his opinion (which I agree with) was that we are going to have to deal with this wave without the protection of the vaccine kicking in for anyone until Feb 2020 or so.

[orthopa]

Lots of vegetables being eaten in Europe right now...

Europe got complacent. Cases here are rising too - in all regions. I think we will crack 100k cases/ day very quickly. Hospitalization is the one metric to  look at. The last waves topped out at 60k COVID-19 hospitalization. Once we get to this number, the hospitals system becomes strained, we are going to have local restrictions again.

Edit: another indicator - my wife went to Costco today and noticed that several items like paper, wipes were sold out, just like during the first wave. Apparently people are getting ready for things to come.

I never understood this. If you ran out of toilet paper and stuck at home why not just take a shit and hop in the shower worst case?

Irrational fear being replaced by irrational fear.