Coronavirus

[Dalal.Holdings]

No worries, we've had "herd immunity" since the end of August...you just have to change the definition of "herd immunity" (it's the new moving of the goalposts, bro!)

Meanwhile, NZ shows what it looks like to actually "be tired of winning":

[DocSnowball]

Lots of vegetables being eaten in Europe right now...

Europe got complacent. Cases here are rising too - in all regions. I think we will crack 100k cases/ day very quickly. Hospitalization is the one metric to  look at. The last waves topped out at 60k COVID-19 hospitalization. Once we get to this number, the hospitals system becomes strained, we are going to have local restrictions again.

Edit: another indicator - my wife went to Costco today and noticed that several items like paper, wipes were sold out, just like during the first wave. Apparently people are getting ready for things to come.

Interesting - I had the same feeling and behavior at Costco yesterday, and ended up wondering if it was just me feeling that way or a lot of others. Purely anecdotal and likely biased.

Anthony Fauci spoke at the annual ID society meeting yesterday and shared this graph comparing US and Europe's curves to date (attached) - looks ominous. Between the lines, he was very critical of the way US never shut down in a coordinated way and then reopened too hastily. He seemed to be very very concerned about what the next 3-4 weeks will bring. I agree with you it's the hospitalization rates that will drive partial closures. The frightening thing is that the way the US is responding, a large increase in cases and hospitalizations seems inevitable.

On the bright side, seems like Moderna's vaccine enrollment is expected to be completed within days and Pfizer's within a few weeks. The trial design is to follow up patients for two months after second dose, but if there is a significant number of cases in the control arm, interim analysis may reveal results sooner. When results come, throw in more time for FDA approval, and some more for rollout. Then wait for two doses 21-28 days apart to be given to be effective, starting with healthcare workers and high risk individuals. Even in this best case, his opinion (which I agree with) was that we are going to have to deal with this wave without the protection of the vaccine kicking in for anyone until Feb 2020 or so.

[orthopa]

Lots of vegetables being eaten in Europe right now...

Europe got complacent. Cases here are rising too - in all regions. I think we will crack 100k cases/ day very quickly. Hospitalization is the one metric to  look at. The last waves topped out at 60k COVID-19 hospitalization. Once we get to this number, the hospitals system becomes strained, we are going to have local restrictions again.

Edit: another indicator - my wife went to Costco today and noticed that several items like paper, wipes were sold out, just like during the first wave. Apparently people are getting ready for things to come.

I never understood this. If you ran out of toilet paper and stuck at home why not just take a shit and hop in the shower worst case?

Irrational fear being replaced by irrational fear.

[orthopa]

No worries, we've had "herd immunity" since the end of August...you just have to change the definition of "herd immunity" (it's the new moving of the goalposts, bro!)

Meanwhile, NZ shows what it looks like to actually "be tired of winning":

The summer time Europe cheerleader is back right on cue. Any comments on Europe?

[orthopa]

Lots of vegetables being eaten in Europe right now...

Europe got complacent. Cases here are rising too - in all regions. I think we will crack 100k cases/ day very quickly. Hospitalization is the one metric to  look at. The last waves topped out at 60k COVID-19 hospitalization. Once we get to this number, the hospitals system becomes strained, we are going to have local restrictions again.

Edit: another indicator - my wife went to Costco today and noticed that several items like paper, wipes were sold out, just like during the first wave. Apparently people are getting ready for things to come.

Yes. Do stupid things with the virus and let it get out of control and then be forced to brake (eventually) the economy. Where i live (BC) we are seeing a spike in cases due to weddings, funerals and gender reveal parties. People are ignoring the max 50 people limit. Right before flu season. Stupid is as stupid does.

North America and Europe are seeing a spike in cases at the worst possible time... up, up and away :-)

There is no way that certain states in the US that are trending down after big spikes early this year are not making mistakes either. If in BC people are not following guidelines and letting their guard down there has to be similar circumstances in other states. Looking at the NY case count if 5 million people in BC cant follow guidelines and let their guard down how the hell are 20 million in NY doing it? I don't think they are as you point out as humans get lazy, let their guard down, get tired of restriction and ignore rules. That being said looking at case count there is a larger force at play.

[Dalal.Holdings]

The summer time Europe cheerleader is back right on cue. Any comments on Europe?

Europe did a good job in the spring leading to a good summer for them and dropped the ball later. Lol
Because I praised them for doing a good job early I am now forever tied to Europe?

When the facts change, I change my mind—what do you do?

Oh, I know—stick to your guns regardless of new information—it’s been widespread in the USA since January...

[John Hjorth]

... Any comments on Europe?

Viking [post #7920] and Spekulatius [post #7919] are right,

Unfortunately, it's the concerning and depressing truth about many places. People in general are so incredible dumb with regard to "dancing with the virus" [, phrased well aware of the citizens of some countries do not have living conditions to "dance"].

There seem to be empiric evidence in available data for Denmark that the behavior of the youth seems to be the problem right now. My PM Mette Frederiksen will very likely announce new restrictions less than 30 minutes from now.

What a screw up.

[muscleman]

No worries, we've had "herd immunity" since the end of August...you just have to change the definition of "herd immunity" (it's the new moving of the goalposts, bro!)

Meanwhile, NZ shows what it looks like to actually "be tired of winning":

With Sweden's cases spiking, I think my initial herd immunity hypothesis is broken.

[Dalal.Holdings]

With Sweden's cases spiking, I think my initial herd immunity hypothesis is broken.

Well at least you admit it. This was not a low stakes issue which is why I questioned your level of confidence. When people become confident in such things, the danger is that precaution is thrown aside.

When leaders dismiss precaution and instead exhibit confidence that “the virus will be gone soon” or “a vaccine will be here soon”, the cost of them being wrong—economically and in terms of lives lost—is massive and will be borne by society...

The Asian countries and some others like NZ seem to get the precautionary principle. Others not so much.

[DocSnowball]

With Sweden's cases spiking, I think my initial herd immunity hypothesis is broken.

Well at least you admit it. This was not a low stakes issue which is why I questioned your level of confidence. When people become confident in such things, the danger is that precaution is thrown aside.

When leaders dismiss precaution and instead exhibit confidence that “the virus will be gone soon” or “a vaccine will be here soon”, the cost of them being wrong—economically and in terms of lives lost—is massive and will be borne by society...

The Asian countries and some others like NZ seem to get the precautionary principle. Others not so much.

Let's for a moment assume the herd immunity thesis is broken (we don't know that yet). You're not the only one holding it, there are plenty of others who will realize this as cases and hospitalizations go up, and we anticipate they could go up fast. My question is, can one make money from this understanding? If yes, where are the opportunities to make money if a significant third wave hits?

Edit: this question is based on the realization that cases and markets have not correlated much in the last 6 months