Coronavirus

[orthopa]

No worries, we've had "herd immunity" since the end of August...you just have to change the definition of "herd immunity" (it's the new moving of the goalposts, bro!)

Meanwhile, NZ shows what it looks like to actually "be tired of winning":

The summer time Europe cheerleader is back right on cue. Any comments on Europe?

[orthopa]

Lots of vegetables being eaten in Europe right now...

Europe got complacent. Cases here are rising too - in all regions. I think we will crack 100k cases/ day very quickly. Hospitalization is the one metric to  look at. The last waves topped out at 60k COVID-19 hospitalization. Once we get to this number, the hospitals system becomes strained, we are going to have local restrictions again.

Edit: another indicator - my wife went to Costco today and noticed that several items like paper, wipes were sold out, just like during the first wave. Apparently people are getting ready for things to come.

Yes. Do stupid things with the virus and let it get out of control and then be forced to brake (eventually) the economy. Where i live (BC) we are seeing a spike in cases due to weddings, funerals and gender reveal parties. People are ignoring the max 50 people limit. Right before flu season. Stupid is as stupid does.

North America and Europe are seeing a spike in cases at the worst possible time... up, up and away :-)

There is no way that certain states in the US that are trending down after big spikes early this year are not making mistakes either. If in BC people are not following guidelines and letting their guard down there has to be similar circumstances in other states. Looking at the NY case count if 5 million people in BC cant follow guidelines and let their guard down how the hell are 20 million in NY doing it? I don't think they are as you point out as humans get lazy, let their guard down, get tired of restriction and ignore rules. That being said looking at case count there is a larger force at play.

[Dalal.Holdings]

The summer time Europe cheerleader is back right on cue. Any comments on Europe?

Europe did a good job in the spring leading to a good summer for them and dropped the ball later. Lol
Because I praised them for doing a good job early I am now forever tied to Europe?

When the facts change, I change my mind—what do you do?

Oh, I know—stick to your guns regardless of new information—it’s been widespread in the USA since January...

[John Hjorth]

... Any comments on Europe?

Viking [post #7920] and Spekulatius [post #7919] are right,

Unfortunately, it's the concerning and depressing truth about many places. People in general are so incredible dumb with regard to "dancing with the virus" [, phrased well aware of the citizens of some countries do not have living conditions to "dance"].

There seem to be empiric evidence in available data for Denmark that the behavior of the youth seems to be the problem right now. My PM Mette Frederiksen will very likely announce new restrictions less than 30 minutes from now.

What a screw up.

[muscleman]

No worries, we've had "herd immunity" since the end of August...you just have to change the definition of "herd immunity" (it's the new moving of the goalposts, bro!)

Meanwhile, NZ shows what it looks like to actually "be tired of winning":

With Sweden's cases spiking, I think my initial herd immunity hypothesis is broken.

[Dalal.Holdings]

With Sweden's cases spiking, I think my initial herd immunity hypothesis is broken.

Well at least you admit it. This was not a low stakes issue which is why I questioned your level of confidence. When people become confident in such things, the danger is that precaution is thrown aside.

When leaders dismiss precaution and instead exhibit confidence that “the virus will be gone soon” or “a vaccine will be here soon”, the cost of them being wrong—economically and in terms of lives lost—is massive and will be borne by society...

The Asian countries and some others like NZ seem to get the precautionary principle. Others not so much.

[DocSnowball]

With Sweden's cases spiking, I think my initial herd immunity hypothesis is broken.

Well at least you admit it. This was not a low stakes issue which is why I questioned your level of confidence. When people become confident in such things, the danger is that precaution is thrown aside.

When leaders dismiss precaution and instead exhibit confidence that “the virus will be gone soon” or “a vaccine will be here soon”, the cost of them being wrong—economically and in terms of lives lost—is massive and will be borne by society...

The Asian countries and some others like NZ seem to get the precautionary principle. Others not so much.

Let's for a moment assume the herd immunity thesis is broken (we don't know that yet). You're not the only one holding it, there are plenty of others who will realize this as cases and hospitalizations go up, and we anticipate they could go up fast. My question is, can one make money from this understanding? If yes, where are the opportunities to make money if a significant third wave hits?

Edit: this question is based on the realization that cases and markets have not correlated much in the last 6 months

[Dalal.Holdings]

With Sweden's cases spiking, I think my initial herd immunity hypothesis is broken.

Well at least you admit it. This was not a low stakes issue which is why I questioned your level of confidence. When people become confident in such things, the danger is that precaution is thrown aside.

When leaders dismiss precaution and instead exhibit confidence that “the virus will be gone soon” or “a vaccine will be here soon”, the cost of them being wrong—economically and in terms of lives lost—is massive and will be borne by society...

The Asian countries and some others like NZ seem to get the precautionary principle. Others not so much.

Let's for a moment assume the herd immunity thesis is broken (we don't know that yet). You're not the only one holding it, there are plenty of others who will realize this as cases and hospitalizations go up, and we anticipate they could go up fast. My question is, can one make money from this understanding? If yes, where are the opportunities to make money if a significant third wave hits?

Edit: this question is based on the realization that cases and markets have not correlated much in the last 6 months

These days, the way to make money is: bad news -> stimulus -> stonks go up (and even good news as long as fed doesn’t tighten)

The virus has gotten less deadly as we’ve matured our treatment modalities: proning, remdesivir, antibody cocktails, steroids, avoiding things that don’t work (HCQ,etc) but a third wave would drive a population already conditioned to a deadlier covid to reduce consumption/activity. And having a virus that can kill your relatives and/or spending time in the ICU/hospital with a respiratory virus is not exactly enticing even if you survive.

So while stonks may go up, the fear is that the real economy will get hit.

As they say, an ounce of prevention is worth....but it’s too late now for that anyway.

[muscleman]

With Sweden's cases spiking, I think my initial herd immunity hypothesis is broken.

Well at least you admit it. This was not a low stakes issue which is why I questioned your level of confidence. When people become confident in such things, the danger is that precaution is thrown aside.

When leaders dismiss precaution and instead exhibit confidence that “the virus will be gone soon” or “a vaccine will be here soon”, the cost of them being wrong—economically and in terms of lives lost—is massive and will be borne by society...

The Asian countries and some others like NZ seem to get the precautionary principle. Others not so much.

Let's for a moment assume the herd immunity thesis is broken (we don't know that yet). You're not the only one holding it, there are plenty of others who will realize this as cases and hospitalizations go up, and we anticipate they could go up fast. My question is, can one make money from this understanding? If yes, where are the opportunities to make money if a significant third wave hits?

Edit: this question is based on the realization that cases and markets have not correlated much in the last 6 months

I think I said this before. Climbing cases is a bullish thing for the stock market. The way to make money from it is to buy stocks not sell short stocks or stay in cash and whining.
I think reopening plays are great buys because even though the cases are spiking, I don't think another lockdown will happen. Businesses will remain open while we go through the 3rd wave.
I see reopening play stocks with reasonable valuation and growing revenue during the pandemic and I expect them to do well now that lockdowns are easing.

[muscleman]

With Sweden's cases spiking, I think my initial herd immunity hypothesis is broken.

Well at least you admit it. This was not a low stakes issue which is why I questioned your level of confidence. When people become confident in such things, the danger is that precaution is thrown aside.

When leaders dismiss precaution and instead exhibit confidence that “the virus will be gone soon” or “a vaccine will be here soon”, the cost of them being wrong—economically and in terms of lives lost—is massive and will be borne by society...

The Asian countries and some others like NZ seem to get the precautionary principle. Others not so much.

I am in constant search for truth, with no political agenda. It is important to have high conviction when betting but always keep an open mind if wrong. That's the best mentality for an investor.

As George Soros said, you can be wrong a lot of times but still make right market calls, and people who were unwilling to make calls until they are super confident are wrong most of the time about the market.

Over the years I found out that it is important to be just a little smarter than the average. If I got two steps smarter, I could not make any money because the market cannot see that far.