Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 805155 times)

patience_and_focus

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #8190 on: November 18, 2020, 10:55:58 AM »
Large enough sample : "4862 completed the study."

First off I want to say I am of the view that there isn't currently conclusive evidence that masks are effective. There is also not conclusive evidence that masks are not effective. In this regard we may be in agreement (at least partially).

Now for the sample size. It is not large.

This is clear from the confidence intervals (potential range of possible outcomes in 95% confidence interval is very large). Typically you get large intervals when sample size is small. There is another very important reason why I say this. Look at the sample size of Pfizer/BioNtech or Morderna trials. They are 10X the size of this trial. Pfizer trial had ~44000 participants. The goal was very similar, to assess whether an intervention (in this case a vaccine as opposed to masks) is effective in preventing future infections.

The reason why this large sample size (~44000) is needed is to be able to power the study enough to convincingly make a call one way or another in this infectious disease setting. Same is true for any other intervention study (vaccine, therapeutic or non pharmaceutical interventions such as masks).


Liberty

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #8191 on: November 18, 2020, 11:53:34 AM »
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7355084/

Quote
“Despite being a trivial matter for patients in intensive care units (ICUs), erectile dysfunction (ED) is a likely consequence of COVID-19 for survivors...”

Jurgis

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #8192 on: November 18, 2020, 12:42:33 PM »
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7355084/

Quote
“Despite being a trivial matter for patients in intensive care units (ICUs), erectile dysfunction (ED) is a likely consequence of COVID-19 for survivors...”

They already tested Donnie?  :o
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Gregmal

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #8193 on: November 18, 2020, 01:25:45 PM »
Assclown in NY giving people one more chance to exit the WFH trade...

Viking

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #8194 on: November 18, 2020, 02:19:19 PM »
Large enough sample : "4862 completed the study."

First off I want to say I am of the view that there isn't currently conclusive evidence that masks are effective. There is also not conclusive evidence that masks are not effective. In this regard we may be in agreement (at least partially).

Now for the sample size. It is not large.

This is clear from the confidence intervals (potential range of possible outcomes in 95% confidence interval is very large). Typically you get large intervals when sample size is small. There is another very important reason why I say this. Look at the sample size of Pfizer/BioNtech or Morderna trials. They are 10X the size of this trial. Pfizer trial had ~44000 participants. The goal was very similar, to assess whether an intervention (in this case a vaccine as opposed to masks) is effective in preventing future infections.

The reason why this large sample size (~44000) is needed is to be able to power the study enough to convincingly make a call one way or another in this infectious disease setting. Same is true for any other intervention study (vaccine, therapeutic or non pharmaceutical interventions such as masks).

Every country that has brought the virus under control has a couple of common factors. One is widespread mask wearing. It is obvious wearing a mask helps. Now exactly how effective? We will know much more in a few years. (But i think that will be a little too late to help us today :-)

Social distancing is a second. Effective contact tracing is a third (this lets you know where the clusters are breaking out and why which is super important to know).

Now we could wait a few more years and wait for irrefutable scientific evidence before implementing any of these measures. Kind of like what happened back in February and March in South Korea, Iran and Northern Italy. The virus loves stupidity.

Now is wearing a mask a silver bullet? No, of course not. Managing the virus well is your classic example of a multivariable event. You need to get a bunch of things right at the same time for an extended period of time. And the trade offs are difficult and of huge impact. And there will be a need for constant course corrections (as new information becomes available).

It totally cracks me up how people completely miss the forest for the trees.

——————————-
miss the forest for the trees: to not understand or appreciate a larger situation, problem, etc., because one is considering only a few parts of it
« Last Edit: November 18, 2020, 02:21:47 PM by Viking »

Gregmal

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #8195 on: November 18, 2020, 02:33:35 PM »
The only way not to catch covid with a near certain success rate is to avoid being around people. If you are going to be around people, wearing a mask helps to a certain degree, but your risks increase greatly. Why is this such a hot button topic for people? Seems really freakin simple. The more people you are around, the greater your chance of catching a cold, whether you have a mask or not...

Viking

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #8196 on: November 18, 2020, 02:50:29 PM »
The only way not to catch covid with a near certain success rate is to avoid being around people. If you are going to be around people, wearing a mask helps to a certain degree, but your risks increase greatly. Why is this such a hot button topic for people? Seems really freakin simple. The more people you are around, the greater your chance of catching a cold, whether you have a mask or not...

Effectively managing the virus is complex. There are many layers involved. .

As i have been saying since March, the virus is in control (until a vaccine is available). Do stupid things and the virus will love it. Develop a fatalistic mind set and the virus wins. It is pretty straight forward.

It is not black and white. Not go out or stay home. Not open up or lock down.
« Last Edit: November 18, 2020, 02:57:52 PM by Viking »

Gregmal

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #8197 on: November 18, 2020, 02:58:39 PM »
The only way not to catch covid with a near certain success rate is to avoid being around people. If you are going to be around people, wearing a mask helps to a certain degree, but your risks increase greatly. Why is this such a hot button topic for people? Seems really freakin simple. The more people you are around, the greater your chance of catching a cold, whether you have a mask or not...

I love it when i encounter this type of thinking when it comes to investing. It is like taking candy from a baby. Not so great when in the middle of a pandemic and the health consequences can be extreme.

Effectively managing the virus is just a tad more complex than you are suggesting (my uneducated opinion).

As i have been saying since March, the virus is in control (until a vaccine is available). Do stupid things and the virus will love it. Develop a fatalistic mind set and the virus wins. It is pretty straight forward.

It is not black and white. Not go out or stay home. Not open up or lock down. Not left or right. Not Democrat or Republican. But just like thumb sucking when young i guess this is the easiest most comforting way for most people to think about the virus. Just like trying to play checkers when you are in the middle of a game of chess.

Well in regards to both investing during this manufactured "crisis", and handling the virus, I am pretty certain I'm doing quite well in both categories....much better than most I would imagine.

It isn't totally black and white, but in many aspects it is. If you run around chicken shit scared or impair your life, well, that sucks. If you choose not to, well, thats your choice. And then even in the worst case, despite the liberal loveliest for headlines like "he dismissed the virus and then he got it!"...most people, even who fall into the later category, end up just fine.

Bottom line is if you're so damn scared of this thing, your only surefire way to avoid it is to sit in your house and avoid any contact with people. If you do that, you'll never get it. For the rest of us, its pretty reasonable to just go about living our lives to the extent that the corrupt and power-hungry politicians dont interfere. Not much more to it.

Viking

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #8198 on: November 18, 2020, 03:30:49 PM »
The only way not to catch covid with a near certain success rate is to avoid being around people. If you are going to be around people, wearing a mask helps to a certain degree, but your risks increase greatly. Why is this such a hot button topic for people? Seems really freakin simple. The more people you are around, the greater your chance of catching a cold, whether you have a mask or not...

I love it when i encounter this type of thinking when it comes to investing. It is like taking candy from a baby. Not so great when in the middle of a pandemic and the health consequences can be extreme.

Effectively managing the virus is just a tad more complex than you are suggesting (my uneducated opinion).

As i have been saying since March, the virus is in control (until a vaccine is available). Do stupid things and the virus will love it. Develop a fatalistic mind set and the virus wins. It is pretty straight forward.

It is not black and white. Not go out or stay home. Not open up or lock down. Not left or right. Not Democrat or Republican. But just like thumb sucking when young i guess this is the easiest most comforting way for most people to think about the virus. Just like trying to play checkers when you are in the middle of a game of chess.

Well in regards to both investing during this manufactured "crisis", and handling the virus, I am pretty certain I'm doing quite well in both categories....much better than most I would imagine.

It isn't totally black and white, but in many aspects it is. If you run around chicken shit scared or impair your life, well, that sucks. If you choose not to, well, thats your choice. And then even in the worst case, despite the liberal loveliest for headlines like "he dismissed the virus and then he got it!"...most people, even who fall into the later category, end up just fine.

Bottom line is if you're so damn scared of this thing, your only surefire way to avoid it is to sit in your house and avoid any contact with people. If you do that, you'll never get it. For the rest of us, its pretty reasonable to just go about living our lives to the extent that the corrupt and power-hungry politicians dont interfere. Not much more to it.

Greg, as you can see above, I did change my initial response. Too cranky.

As we have been learning for the past 10 months dealing with the pandemic is complicated.... :-)   

cwericb

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #8199 on: November 18, 2020, 03:59:22 PM »
For those who think wearing a mask is ineffective, next time you go in for a surgery tell the doctors & nurses not to bother wearing masks as they slice you open.

Covid is like any other serious risk. You take common sense steps to avoid becoming a victim. But if your number comes up, your number comes up.
Politicians and diapers must be changed often, and for the same reason. - Mark Twain