Corner of Berkshire & Fairfax Message Board

General Category => General Discussion => Topic started by: spartansaver on January 24, 2020, 02:40:59 PM

Title: Coronavirus
Post by: spartansaver on January 24, 2020, 02:40:59 PM
What are you guys making of it?

I've been doing a fair amount of reading on it. Seems like it's spread quickly (took two months for SARS to spread to around 500 vs. already Unnamed Corona in less than a month) and can lie dormant for some time (patient in Chicago last visited Wuhan in late Dec. and is only now experiencing symptoms).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: muscleman on January 24, 2020, 04:19:20 PM
I am from Wuhan and I have lots of friends and relatives there. I could tell you this: If you trust the government's stats of 500 infections and 17 deaths, it is no different from buying Chinese stocks merely based on their financial reports. All fake numbers.
The actual number is likely in the 100k range.
Right now even the doctors ran out of masks and gloves and are working unprotected. I don't know how much longer they can last before they are down.
I have 3 relatives infected. One staying at home, and two who spent 6 days going to each hospital to try to get hospitalized. They were all told one thing: We don't have resources for you. Go home. They finally got hospitalized yesterday. Think about it. That's after they are diagnosed positive. They are walking on the streets for 6 days while spreading the virus everywhere, with no hospital taking them in.
There are thousands and thousands of such patients.
There are also dead bodies everywhere in all hospitals. They are dead on the floor and for hours, no one comes to pick the bodies up. When they do get picked up, they are immediately sent to the funeral to be burned, without any diagnose of whether they got infected by this virus or else. Therefore the 17 death is just a joke.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sleepydragon on January 24, 2020, 04:32:53 PM
I am from Wuhan and I have lots of friends and relatives there. I could tell you this: If you trust the government's stats of 500 infections and 17 deaths, it is no different from buying Chinese stocks merely based on their financial reports. All fake numbers.
The actual number is likely in the 100k range.
Right now even the doctors ran out of masks and gloves and are working unprotected. I don't know how much longer they can last before they are down.
I have 3 relatives infected. One staying at home, and two who spent 6 days going to each hospital to try to get hospitalized. They were all told one thing: We don't have resources for you. Go home. They finally got hospitalized yesterday. Think about it. That's after they are diagnosed positive. They are walking on the streets for 6 days while spreading the virus everywhere, with no hospital taking them in.
There are thousands and thousands of such patients.
There are also dead bodies everywhere in all hospitals. They are dead on the floor and for hours, no one comes to pick the bodies up. When they do get picked up, they are immediately sent to the funeral to be burned, without any diagnose of whether they got infected by this virus or else. Therefore the 17 death is just a joke.

Everything will be “ok” as long as it doesn’t spread to Beijing. Chinese New Year Celebrations continue.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: frank87 on January 24, 2020, 04:43:27 PM
I am from Wuhan and I have lots of friends and relatives there. I could tell you this: If you trust the government's stats of 500 infections and 17 deaths, it is no different from buying Chinese stocks merely based on their financial reports. All fake numbers.
The actual number is likely in the 100k range.
Right now even the doctors ran out of masks and gloves and are working unprotected. I don't know how much longer they can last before they are down.
I have 3 relatives infected. One staying at home, and two who spent 6 days going to each hospital to try to get hospitalized. They were all told one thing: We don't have resources for you. Go home. They finally got hospitalized yesterday. Think about it. That's after they are diagnosed positive. They are walking on the streets for 6 days while spreading the virus everywhere, with no hospital taking them in.
There are thousands and thousands of such patients.
There are also dead bodies everywhere in all hospitals. They are dead on the floor and for hours, no one comes to pick the bodies up. When they do get picked up, they are immediately sent to the funeral to be burned, without any diagnose of whether they got infected by this virus or else. Therefore the 17 death is just a joke.

Lol what? How were they diagnosed BEFORE being hospitalized?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gregmal on January 24, 2020, 04:48:57 PM
They are apparently building a 1000 bed hospital from scratch in 6 days. I found that to be impressive. Any chance those guys will come work for any of my real estate development ventures?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: muscleman on January 24, 2020, 04:52:18 PM
I am from Wuhan and I have lots of friends and relatives there. I could tell you this: If you trust the government's stats of 500 infections and 17 deaths, it is no different from buying Chinese stocks merely based on their financial reports. All fake numbers.
The actual number is likely in the 100k range.
Right now even the doctors ran out of masks and gloves and are working unprotected. I don't know how much longer they can last before they are down.
I have 3 relatives infected. One staying at home, and two who spent 6 days going to each hospital to try to get hospitalized. They were all told one thing: We don't have resources for you. Go home. They finally got hospitalized yesterday. Think about it. That's after they are diagnosed positive. They are walking on the streets for 6 days while spreading the virus everywhere, with no hospital taking them in.
There are thousands and thousands of such patients.
There are also dead bodies everywhere in all hospitals. They are dead on the floor and for hours, no one comes to pick the bodies up. When they do get picked up, they are immediately sent to the funeral to be burned, without any diagnose of whether they got infected by this virus or else. Therefore the 17 death is just a joke.

Lol what? How were they diagnosed BEFORE being hospitalized?

Why not? They come to the hospital, wait for 5 hours while infecting all other patients waiting in line (and being infected as well). Then they met the doctor, who asked the nurse to do a series of lab testing for them. Then results show positive. And doctor says sorry we don't have any beds for you today. Go home and try to come here again tomorrow to see if we have any empty beds.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Castanza on January 24, 2020, 04:57:31 PM
I am from Wuhan and I have lots of friends and relatives there. I could tell you this: If you trust the government's stats of 500 infections and 17 deaths, it is no different from buying Chinese stocks merely based on their financial reports. All fake numbers.
The actual number is likely in the 100k range.
Right now even the doctors ran out of masks and gloves and are working unprotected. I don't know how much longer they can last before they are down.
I have 3 relatives infected. One staying at home, and two who spent 6 days going to each hospital to try to get hospitalized. They were all told one thing: We don't have resources for you. Go home. They finally got hospitalized yesterday. Think about it. That's after they are diagnosed positive. They are walking on the streets for 6 days while spreading the virus everywhere, with no hospital taking them in.
There are thousands and thousands of such patients.
There are also dead bodies everywhere in all hospitals. They are dead on the floor and for hours, no one comes to pick the bodies up. When they do get picked up, they are immediately sent to the funeral to be burned, without any diagnose of whether they got infected by this virus or else. Therefore the 17 death is just a joke.

Lol what? How were they diagnosed BEFORE being hospitalized?

Why not? They come to the hospital, wait for 5 hours while infecting all other patients waiting in line (and being infected as well). Then they met the doctor, who asked the nurse to do a series of lab testing for them. Then results show positive. And doctor says sorry we don't have any beds for you today. Go home and try to come here again tomorrow to see if we have any empty beds.

Wow that’s crazy, hope they end up alright
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sleepydragon on January 24, 2020, 05:09:05 PM
I am from Wuhan and I have lots of friends and relatives there. I could tell you this: If you trust the government's stats of 500 infections and 17 deaths, it is no different from buying Chinese stocks merely based on their financial reports. All fake numbers.
The actual number is likely in the 100k range.
Right now even the doctors ran out of masks and gloves and are working unprotected. I don't know how much longer they can last before they are down.
I have 3 relatives infected. One staying at home, and two who spent 6 days going to each hospital to try to get hospitalized. They were all told one thing: We don't have resources for you. Go home. They finally got hospitalized yesterday. Think about it. That's after they are diagnosed positive. They are walking on the streets for 6 days while spreading the virus everywhere, with no hospital taking them in.
There are thousands and thousands of such patients.
There are also dead bodies everywhere in all hospitals. They are dead on the floor and for hours, no one comes to pick the bodies up. When they do get picked up, they are immediately sent to the funeral to be burned, without any diagnose of whether they got infected by this virus or else. Therefore the 17 death is just a joke.

Lol what? How were they diagnosed BEFORE being hospitalized?

Why not? They come to the hospital, wait for 5 hours while infecting all other patients waiting in line (and being infected as well). Then they met the doctor, who asked the nurse to do a series of lab testing for them. Then results show positive. And doctor says sorry we don't have any beds for you today. Go home and try to come here again tomorrow to see if we have any empty beds.

I have read that many patients who went to the hospital and asked to be tested and were denied the test. It’s an expensive test and the doctor says they need get special approvals. A lot of people who got turned away from the hospital and stayed at home were not counted in the official stats.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sleepydragon on January 24, 2020, 05:10:27 PM
There are videos online that people walking on the street just fainted and fell.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: spartansaver on January 24, 2020, 05:13:49 PM
I am from Wuhan and I have lots of friends and relatives there. I could tell you this: If you trust the government's stats of 500 infections and 17 deaths, it is no different from buying Chinese stocks merely based on their financial reports. All fake numbers.
The actual number is likely in the 100k range.
Right now even the doctors ran out of masks and gloves and are working unprotected. I don't know how much longer they can last before they are down.
I have 3 relatives infected. One staying at home, and two who spent 6 days going to each hospital to try to get hospitalized. They were all told one thing: We don't have resources for you. Go home. They finally got hospitalized yesterday. Think about it. That's after they are diagnosed positive. They are walking on the streets for 6 days while spreading the virus everywhere, with no hospital taking them in.
There are thousands and thousands of such patients.
There are also dead bodies everywhere in all hospitals. They are dead on the floor and for hours, no one comes to pick the bodies up. When they do get picked up, they are immediately sent to the funeral to be burned, without any diagnose of whether they got infected by this virus or else. Therefore the 17 death is just a joke.

Thanks for sharing that firsthand information. I hope everyone in your family ends up alright. What makes you think that’s the number has already hit 100k?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sleepydragon on January 24, 2020, 05:16:09 PM
Going to hurt all the travel related companies.
I.e Booking/Pricelines

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Castanza on January 24, 2020, 05:16:30 PM
There are videos online that people walking on the street just fainted and fell.

There was one video of the Wuhan hospital with bodies just lying around. Between Hong Kong and now this China has a lot of issues. All we need is for it to hit EU where nobody has any money....

Not going to lie....I didn’t think this would pan out into anything.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: frank87 on January 24, 2020, 05:21:14 PM
I am from Wuhan and I have lots of friends and relatives there. I could tell you this: If you trust the government's stats of 500 infections and 17 deaths, it is no different from buying Chinese stocks merely based on their financial reports. All fake numbers.
The actual number is likely in the 100k range.
Right now even the doctors ran out of masks and gloves and are working unprotected. I don't know how much longer they can last before they are down.
I have 3 relatives infected. One staying at home, and two who spent 6 days going to each hospital to try to get hospitalized. They were all told one thing: We don't have resources for you. Go home. They finally got hospitalized yesterday. Think about it. That's after they are diagnosed positive. They are walking on the streets for 6 days while spreading the virus everywhere, with no hospital taking them in.
There are thousands and thousands of such patients.
There are also dead bodies everywhere in all hospitals. They are dead on the floor and for hours, no one comes to pick the bodies up. When they do get picked up, they are immediately sent to the funeral to be burned, without any diagnose of whether they got infected by this virus or else. Therefore the 17 death is just a joke.

Lol what? How were they diagnosed BEFORE being hospitalized?

Why not? They come to the hospital, wait for 5 hours while infecting all other patients waiting in line (and being infected as well). Then they met the doctor, who asked the nurse to do a series of lab testing for them. Then results show positive. And doctor says sorry we don't have any beds for you today. Go home and try to come here again tomorrow to see if we have any empty beds.

Your story sounds like a whole load of BS. There is absolutely no way the hospital is letting an infected victim just go home. They’ll house them in tents if there aren’t any beds and keep them quarantined.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: stahleyp on January 24, 2020, 05:27:27 PM
I am from Wuhan and I have lots of friends and relatives there. I could tell you this: If you trust the government's stats of 500 infections and 17 deaths, it is no different from buying Chinese stocks merely based on their financial reports. All fake numbers.
The actual number is likely in the 100k range.
Right now even the doctors ran out of masks and gloves and are working unprotected. I don't know how much longer they can last before they are down.
I have 3 relatives infected. One staying at home, and two who spent 6 days going to each hospital to try to get hospitalized. They were all told one thing: We don't have resources for you. Go home. They finally got hospitalized yesterday. Think about it. That's after they are diagnosed positive. They are walking on the streets for 6 days while spreading the virus everywhere, with no hospital taking them in.
There are thousands and thousands of such patients.
There are also dead bodies everywhere in all hospitals. They are dead on the floor and for hours, no one comes to pick the bodies up. When they do get picked up, they are immediately sent to the funeral to be burned, without any diagnose of whether they got infected by this virus or else. Therefore the 17 death is just a joke.

Lol what? How were they diagnosed BEFORE being hospitalized?

Why not? They come to the hospital, wait for 5 hours while infecting all other patients waiting in line (and being infected as well). Then they met the doctor, who asked the nurse to do a series of lab testing for them. Then results show positive. And doctor says sorry we don't have any beds for you today. Go home and try to come here again tomorrow to see if we have any empty beds.

Your story sounds like a whole load of BS. There is absolutely no way the hospital is letting an infected victim just go home. They’ll house them in tents if there aren’t any beds and keep them quarantined.

Are you from China?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: frank87 on January 24, 2020, 05:33:45 PM
I am from Wuhan and I have lots of friends and relatives there. I could tell you this: If you trust the government's stats of 500 infections and 17 deaths, it is no different from buying Chinese stocks merely based on their financial reports. All fake numbers.
The actual number is likely in the 100k range.
Right now even the doctors ran out of masks and gloves and are working unprotected. I don't know how much longer they can last before they are down.
I have 3 relatives infected. One staying at home, and two who spent 6 days going to each hospital to try to get hospitalized. They were all told one thing: We don't have resources for you. Go home. They finally got hospitalized yesterday. Think about it. That's after they are diagnosed positive. They are walking on the streets for 6 days while spreading the virus everywhere, with no hospital taking them in.
There are thousands and thousands of such patients.
There are also dead bodies everywhere in all hospitals. They are dead on the floor and for hours, no one comes to pick the bodies up. When they do get picked up, they are immediately sent to the funeral to be burned, without any diagnose of whether they got infected by this virus or else. Therefore the 17 death is just a joke.

Lol what? How were they diagnosed BEFORE being hospitalized?

Why not? They come to the hospital, wait for 5 hours while infecting all other patients waiting in line (and being infected as well). Then they met the doctor, who asked the nurse to do a series of lab testing for them. Then results show positive. And doctor says sorry we don't have any beds for you today. Go home and try to come here again tomorrow to see if we have any empty beds.

Your story sounds like a whole load of BS. There is absolutely no way the hospital is letting an infected victim just go home. They’ll house them in tents if there aren’t any beds and keep them quarantined.

Are you from China?

Have relatives. If China is capable of completely shutting down 15 cities, enclosing off-boarding passengers suspected of being infected in boxes, and building a 1000-bed hospital in six days you think they’d test someone, find out they’ve been inflicted and just say “you should go home and come back another day when there’s space”?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: oakwood42 on January 24, 2020, 05:41:38 PM
I am from Wuhan and I have lots of friends and relatives there. I could tell you this: If you trust the government's stats of 500 infections and 17 deaths, it is no different from buying Chinese stocks merely based on their financial reports. All fake numbers.
The actual number is likely in the 100k range.
Right now even the doctors ran out of masks and gloves and are working unprotected. I don't know how much longer they can last before they are down.
I have 3 relatives infected. One staying at home, and two who spent 6 days going to each hospital to try to get hospitalized. They were all told one thing: We don't have resources for you. Go home. They finally got hospitalized yesterday. Think about it. That's after they are diagnosed positive. They are walking on the streets for 6 days while spreading the virus everywhere, with no hospital taking them in.
There are thousands and thousands of such patients.
There are also dead bodies everywhere in all hospitals. They are dead on the floor and for hours, no one comes to pick the bodies up. When they do get picked up, they are immediately sent to the funeral to be burned, without any diagnose of whether they got infected by this virus or else. Therefore the 17 death is just a joke.

Lol what? How were they diagnosed BEFORE being hospitalized?

Why not? They come to the hospital, wait for 5 hours while infecting all other patients waiting in line (and being infected as well). Then they met the doctor, who asked the nurse to do a series of lab testing for them. Then results show positive. And doctor says sorry we don't have any beds for you today. Go home and try to come here again tomorrow to see if we have any empty beds.

Your story sounds like a whole load of BS. There is absolutely no way the hospital is letting an infected victim just go home. They’ll house them in tents if there aren’t any beds and keep them quarantined.

Are you from China?

Have relatives. If China is capable of completely shutting down 15 cities, enclosing off-boarding passengers suspected of being infected in boxes, and building a 1000-bed hospital in six days you think they’d test someone, find out they’ve been inflicted and just say “you should go home and come back another day when there’s space”?

That's a good point.  When you build a hospital in response to 500 reported cases in says something more is going on there.  Honestly, I was trying not to read or watch any news around this however it seems like it is becoming unavoidable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Castanza on January 24, 2020, 05:47:26 PM
I am from Wuhan and I have lots of friends and relatives there. I could tell you this: If you trust the government's stats of 500 infections and 17 deaths, it is no different from buying Chinese stocks merely based on their financial reports. All fake numbers.
The actual number is likely in the 100k range.
Right now even the doctors ran out of masks and gloves and are working unprotected. I don't know how much longer they can last before they are down.
I have 3 relatives infected. One staying at home, and two who spent 6 days going to each hospital to try to get hospitalized. They were all told one thing: We don't have resources for you. Go home. They finally got hospitalized yesterday. Think about it. That's after they are diagnosed positive. They are walking on the streets for 6 days while spreading the virus everywhere, with no hospital taking them in.
There are thousands and thousands of such patients.
There are also dead bodies everywhere in all hospitals. They are dead on the floor and for hours, no one comes to pick the bodies up. When they do get picked up, they are immediately sent to the funeral to be burned, without any diagnose of whether they got infected by this virus or else. Therefore the 17 death is just a joke.

Lol what? How were they diagnosed BEFORE being hospitalized?

Why not? They come to the hospital, wait for 5 hours while infecting all other patients waiting in line (and being infected as well). Then they met the doctor, who asked the nurse to do a series of lab testing for them. Then results show positive. And doctor says sorry we don't have any beds for you today. Go home and try to come here again tomorrow to see if we have any empty beds.

Your story sounds like a whole load of BS. There is absolutely no way the hospital is letting an infected victim just go home. They’ll house them in tents if there aren’t any beds and keep them quarantined.

Are you from China?

Have relatives. If China is capable of completely shutting down 15 cities, enclosing off-boarding passengers suspected of being infected in boxes, and building a 1000-bed hospital in six days you think they’d test someone, find out they’ve been inflicted and just say “you should go home and come back another day when there’s space”?

Have you seen the videos of the hospitals? They are overrun. They probably don’t have enough tests and telling people to go home and stay inside is a decent way to contain something. Basically house arrest.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: frank87 on January 24, 2020, 05:51:34 PM
I am from Wuhan and I have lots of friends and relatives there. I could tell you this: If you trust the government's stats of 500 infections and 17 deaths, it is no different from buying Chinese stocks merely based on their financial reports. All fake numbers.
The actual number is likely in the 100k range.
Right now even the doctors ran out of masks and gloves and are working unprotected. I don't know how much longer they can last before they are down.
I have 3 relatives infected. One staying at home, and two who spent 6 days going to each hospital to try to get hospitalized. They were all told one thing: We don't have resources for you. Go home. They finally got hospitalized yesterday. Think about it. That's after they are diagnosed positive. They are walking on the streets for 6 days while spreading the virus everywhere, with no hospital taking them in.
There are thousands and thousands of such patients.
There are also dead bodies everywhere in all hospitals. They are dead on the floor and for hours, no one comes to pick the bodies up. When they do get picked up, they are immediately sent to the funeral to be burned, without any diagnose of whether they got infected by this virus or else. Therefore the 17 death is just a joke.

Lol what? How were they diagnosed BEFORE being hospitalized?

Why not? They come to the hospital, wait for 5 hours while infecting all other patients waiting in line (and being infected as well). Then they met the doctor, who asked the nurse to do a series of lab testing for them. Then results show positive. And doctor says sorry we don't have any beds for you today. Go home and try to come here again tomorrow to see if we have any empty beds.

Your story sounds like a whole load of BS. There is absolutely no way the hospital is letting an infected victim just go home. They’ll house them in tents if there aren’t any beds and keep them quarantined.

Are you from China?

Have relatives. If China is capable of completely shutting down 15 cities, enclosing off-boarding passengers suspected of being infected in boxes, and building a 1000-bed hospital in six days you think they’d test someone, find out they’ve been inflicted and just say “you should go home and come back another day when there’s space”?

Have you seen the videos of the hospitals? They are overrun. They probably don’t have enough tests and telling people to go home and stay inside is a decent way to contain something. Basically house arrest.

They’re full of people full of panic. Wuhan has 11 million people, just imagine what would happen once you quarantine the city and everyone’s scared shitless. Of course they’d rush to the hospital whether they have symptoms or not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Castanza on January 24, 2020, 05:59:14 PM
I am from Wuhan and I have lots of friends and relatives there. I could tell you this: If you trust the government's stats of 500 infections and 17 deaths, it is no different from buying Chinese stocks merely based on their financial reports. All fake numbers.
The actual number is likely in the 100k range.
Right now even the doctors ran out of masks and gloves and are working unprotected. I don't know how much longer they can last before they are down.
I have 3 relatives infected. One staying at home, and two who spent 6 days going to each hospital to try to get hospitalized. They were all told one thing: We don't have resources for you. Go home. They finally got hospitalized yesterday. Think about it. That's after they are diagnosed positive. They are walking on the streets for 6 days while spreading the virus everywhere, with no hospital taking them in.
There are thousands and thousands of such patients.
There are also dead bodies everywhere in all hospitals. They are dead on the floor and for hours, no one comes to pick the bodies up. When they do get picked up, they are immediately sent to the funeral to be burned, without any diagnose of whether they got infected by this virus or else. Therefore the 17 death is just a joke.

Lol what? How were they diagnosed BEFORE being hospitalized?

Why not? They come to the hospital, wait for 5 hours while infecting all other patients waiting in line (and being infected as well). Then they met the doctor, who asked the nurse to do a series of lab testing for them. Then results show positive. And doctor says sorry we don't have any beds for you today. Go home and try to come here again tomorrow to see if we have any empty beds.

Your story sounds like a whole load of BS. There is absolutely no way the hospital is letting an infected victim just go home. They’ll house them in tents if there aren’t any beds and keep them quarantined.

Are you from China?

Have relatives. If China is capable of completely shutting down 15 cities, enclosing off-boarding passengers suspected of being infected in boxes, and building a 1000-bed hospital in six days you think they’d test someone, find out they’ve been inflicted and just say “you should go home and come back another day when there’s space”?

Have you seen the videos of the hospitals? They are overrun. They probably don’t have enough tests and telling people to go home and stay inside is a decent way to contain something. Basically house arrest.

They’re full of people full of panic. Wuhan has 11 million people, just imagine what would happen once you quarantine the city and everyone’s scared shitless. Of course they’d rush to the hospital whether they have symptoms or not.

I mean that’s basically my point. Who knows how many are infected. But if it spreads as easy as it sounds like. Then 11mil people heading to the hospital doesn’t make it see outrageous for the number to be much much higher.

Time will tell though. No use jumping to conclusions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: stahleyp on January 24, 2020, 06:15:12 PM
I am from Wuhan and I have lots of friends and relatives there. I could tell you this: If you trust the government's stats of 500 infections and 17 deaths, it is no different from buying Chinese stocks merely based on their financial reports. All fake numbers.
The actual number is likely in the 100k range.
Right now even the doctors ran out of masks and gloves and are working unprotected. I don't know how much longer they can last before they are down.
I have 3 relatives infected. One staying at home, and two who spent 6 days going to each hospital to try to get hospitalized. They were all told one thing: We don't have resources for you. Go home. They finally got hospitalized yesterday. Think about it. That's after they are diagnosed positive. They are walking on the streets for 6 days while spreading the virus everywhere, with no hospital taking them in.
There are thousands and thousands of such patients.
There are also dead bodies everywhere in all hospitals. They are dead on the floor and for hours, no one comes to pick the bodies up. When they do get picked up, they are immediately sent to the funeral to be burned, without any diagnose of whether they got infected by this virus or else. Therefore the 17 death is just a joke.

Lol what? How were they diagnosed BEFORE being hospitalized?

Why not? They come to the hospital, wait for 5 hours while infecting all other patients waiting in line (and being infected as well). Then they met the doctor, who asked the nurse to do a series of lab testing for them. Then results show positive. And doctor says sorry we don't have any beds for you today. Go home and try to come here again tomorrow to see if we have any empty beds.

Your story sounds like a whole load of BS. There is absolutely no way the hospital is letting an infected victim just go home. They’ll house them in tents if there aren’t any beds and keep them quarantined.

Are you from China?

Have relatives. If China is capable of completely shutting down 15 cities, enclosing off-boarding passengers suspected of being infected in boxes, and building a 1000-bed hospital in six days you think they’d test someone, find out they’ve been inflicted and just say “you should go home and come back another day when there’s space”?

I don't know anyone in China. I would assume their hospital system isn't as efficient as ours. I know that in some cases doctors don't know what's going on or get overworked/stressed out. So I don't find it all that unthinkable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: muscleman on January 24, 2020, 06:23:20 PM
I am from Wuhan and I have lots of friends and relatives there. I could tell you this: If you trust the government's stats of 500 infections and 17 deaths, it is no different from buying Chinese stocks merely based on their financial reports. All fake numbers.
The actual number is likely in the 100k range.
Right now even the doctors ran out of masks and gloves and are working unprotected. I don't know how much longer they can last before they are down.
I have 3 relatives infected. One staying at home, and two who spent 6 days going to each hospital to try to get hospitalized. They were all told one thing: We don't have resources for you. Go home. They finally got hospitalized yesterday. Think about it. That's after they are diagnosed positive. They are walking on the streets for 6 days while spreading the virus everywhere, with no hospital taking them in.
There are thousands and thousands of such patients.
There are also dead bodies everywhere in all hospitals. They are dead on the floor and for hours, no one comes to pick the bodies up. When they do get picked up, they are immediately sent to the funeral to be burned, without any diagnose of whether they got infected by this virus or else. Therefore the 17 death is just a joke.

Lol what? How were they diagnosed BEFORE being hospitalized?

Why not? They come to the hospital, wait for 5 hours while infecting all other patients waiting in line (and being infected as well). Then they met the doctor, who asked the nurse to do a series of lab testing for them. Then results show positive. And doctor says sorry we don't have any beds for you today. Go home and try to come here again tomorrow to see if we have any empty beds.

I have read that many patients who went to the hospital and asked to be tested and were denied the test. It’s an expensive test and the doctor says they need get special approvals. A lot of people who got turned away from the hospital and stayed at home were not counted in the official stats.

The research scientists did a great job coming up with a PCR testing kit that can accurately identify the virus RNA sequence. It is not expensive, but the kits are not available in a lot of hospitals. My two relatively got tested by the kit so they know they are positive. Most people couldn't get one even until they die.
The government officials screwed up everything. They lied to public and tried to tell everyone that this is no big deal. Even on Jan 19th, they tried to lie to public and show everything is fine by organizing a 40k people potluck. How stupid.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Morgan on January 24, 2020, 06:25:10 PM
I am from Wuhan and I have lots of friends and relatives there. I could tell you this: If you trust the government's stats of 500 infections and 17 deaths, it is no different from buying Chinese stocks merely based on their financial reports. All fake numbers.
The actual number is likely in the 100k range.
Right now even the doctors ran out of masks and gloves and are working unprotected. I don't know how much longer they can last before they are down.
I have 3 relatives infected. One staying at home, and two who spent 6 days going to each hospital to try to get hospitalized. They were all told one thing: We don't have resources for you. Go home. They finally got hospitalized yesterday. Think about it. That's after they are diagnosed positive. They are walking on the streets for 6 days while spreading the virus everywhere, with no hospital taking them in.
There are thousands and thousands of such patients.
There are also dead bodies everywhere in all hospitals. They are dead on the floor and for hours, no one comes to pick the bodies up. When they do get picked up, they are immediately sent to the funeral to be burned, without any diagnose of whether they got infected by this virus or else. Therefore the 17 death is just a joke.

It seemed very alarming that they shut down so many cities so quickly. It’s up to like 30 million people “quarantined” in their cities. China doesn’t mess around, so I wouldn’t be surprised at all if it’s much bigger than the government is saying. You don’t just shut down 30 million people for no reason.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: muscleman on January 24, 2020, 06:25:23 PM
I am from Wuhan and I have lots of friends and relatives there. I could tell you this: If you trust the government's stats of 500 infections and 17 deaths, it is no different from buying Chinese stocks merely based on their financial reports. All fake numbers.
The actual number is likely in the 100k range.
Right now even the doctors ran out of masks and gloves and are working unprotected. I don't know how much longer they can last before they are down.
I have 3 relatives infected. One staying at home, and two who spent 6 days going to each hospital to try to get hospitalized. They were all told one thing: We don't have resources for you. Go home. They finally got hospitalized yesterday. Think about it. That's after they are diagnosed positive. They are walking on the streets for 6 days while spreading the virus everywhere, with no hospital taking them in.
There are thousands and thousands of such patients.
There are also dead bodies everywhere in all hospitals. They are dead on the floor and for hours, no one comes to pick the bodies up. When they do get picked up, they are immediately sent to the funeral to be burned, without any diagnose of whether they got infected by this virus or else. Therefore the 17 death is just a joke.

Thanks for sharing that firsthand information. I hope everyone in your family ends up alright. What makes you think that’s the number has already hit 100k?

Each hospital's waiting time is at least 5 hours. A couple thousand angry patients waiting in line. Multiple that by the number of hospitals and multiple 3 (arbitrary number in my mind) for people who got infected but haven't shown any symptoms yet. Keep in mind that there is a 14 day quiet period after infection where no symptom is shown.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: muscleman on January 24, 2020, 06:27:05 PM
I am from Wuhan and I have lots of friends and relatives there. I could tell you this: If you trust the government's stats of 500 infections and 17 deaths, it is no different from buying Chinese stocks merely based on their financial reports. All fake numbers.
The actual number is likely in the 100k range.
Right now even the doctors ran out of masks and gloves and are working unprotected. I don't know how much longer they can last before they are down.
I have 3 relatives infected. One staying at home, and two who spent 6 days going to each hospital to try to get hospitalized. They were all told one thing: We don't have resources for you. Go home. They finally got hospitalized yesterday. Think about it. That's after they are diagnosed positive. They are walking on the streets for 6 days while spreading the virus everywhere, with no hospital taking them in.
There are thousands and thousands of such patients.
There are also dead bodies everywhere in all hospitals. They are dead on the floor and for hours, no one comes to pick the bodies up. When they do get picked up, they are immediately sent to the funeral to be burned, without any diagnose of whether they got infected by this virus or else. Therefore the 17 death is just a joke.

Lol what? How were they diagnosed BEFORE being hospitalized?

Why not? They come to the hospital, wait for 5 hours while infecting all other patients waiting in line (and being infected as well). Then they met the doctor, who asked the nurse to do a series of lab testing for them. Then results show positive. And doctor says sorry we don't have any beds for you today. Go home and try to come here again tomorrow to see if we have any empty beds.

Your story sounds like a whole load of BS. There is absolutely no way the hospital is letting an infected victim just go home. They’ll house them in tents if there aren’t any beds and keep them quarantined.

Your comment is like adding salt to the wound. You have no respect and no sympathy for my relatives and for people who got infected.
You don't have to believe anything I said. Just go there and look at it yourself.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: muscleman on January 24, 2020, 06:30:08 PM
When my two relatives were running around hoping to get hospitalized, they saw a doctor's family member infected, and was told by the doctor that he has to go home because there is no bed. So how do you expect the doctor to have mood to hospitalize strangers?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: abyli on January 24, 2020, 07:54:36 PM
When my two relatives were running around hoping to get hospitalized, they saw a doctor's family member infected, and was told by the doctor that he has to go home because there is no bed. So how do you expect the doctor to have mood to hospitalize strangers?

Yes, what you said is true. The one big issue is the doctors do not have enough supplies, the doctors and nurses do not have enough masks and eye protectors! The government say we do not accept overseas donations, but the doctors and nurses everywhere are crying online for international help!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: abyli on January 24, 2020, 08:03:16 PM
When my two relatives were running around hoping to get hospitalized, they saw a doctor's family member infected, and was told by the doctor that he has to go home because there is no bed. So how do you expect the doctor to have mood to hospitalize strangers?

Yes, what you said is true. The one big issue is the doctors do not have enough supplies, the doctors and nurses do not have enough masks and eye protectors! The government say we do not accept overseas donations, but the doctors and nurses everywhere are crying online for international help!

This is just one:

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/r0MgCEtpYRocZECSPcpDXA

The doctors have no masks, no eye protections, no food!

My WeChat: abyli333
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sleepydragon on January 24, 2020, 08:12:29 PM
When my two relatives were running around hoping to get hospitalized, they saw a doctor's family member infected, and was told by the doctor that he has to go home because there is no bed. So how do you expect the doctor to have mood to hospitalize strangers?

Yes, what you said is true. The one big issue is the doctors do not have enough supplies, the doctors and nurses do not have enough masks and eye protectors! The government say we do not accept overseas donations, but the doctors and nurses everywhere are crying online for international help!

This is just one:

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/r0MgCEtpYRocZECSPcpDXA

The doctors have no masks, no eye protections, no food!

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: gokou3 on January 24, 2020, 08:38:39 PM
I am from Wuhan and I have lots of friends and relatives there. I could tell you this: If you trust the government's stats of 500 infections and 17 deaths, it is no different from buying Chinese stocks merely based on their financial reports. All fake numbers.
The actual number is likely in the 100k range.
Right now even the doctors ran out of masks and gloves and are working unprotected. I don't know how much longer they can last before they are down.
I have 3 relatives infected. One staying at home, and two who spent 6 days going to each hospital to try to get hospitalized. They were all told one thing: We don't have resources for you. Go home. They finally got hospitalized yesterday. Think about it. That's after they are diagnosed positive. They are walking on the streets for 6 days while spreading the virus everywhere, with no hospital taking them in.
There are thousands and thousands of such patients.
There are also dead bodies everywhere in all hospitals. They are dead on the floor and for hours, no one comes to pick the bodies up. When they do get picked up, they are immediately sent to the funeral to be burned, without any diagnose of whether they got infected by this virus or else. Therefore the 17 death is just a joke.

Lol what? How were they diagnosed BEFORE being hospitalized?

Why not? They come to the hospital, wait for 5 hours while infecting all other patients waiting in line (and being infected as well). Then they met the doctor, who asked the nurse to do a series of lab testing for them. Then results show positive. And doctor says sorry we don't have any beds for you today. Go home and try to come here again tomorrow to see if we have any empty beds.

Your story sounds like a whole load of BS. There is absolutely no way the hospital is letting an infected victim just go home. They’ll house them in tents if there aren’t any beds and keep them quarantined.

Your comment is like adding salt to the wound. You have no respect and no sympathy for my relatives and for people who got infected.
You don't have to believe anything I said. Just go there and look at it yourself.

Thanks Muscleman for telling your story; much appreciated and hope you can provide more updates in the next little while.  It's sad but not surprised to read about what is happening on the ground.  Speedy recovery for your families.


P.S. Ignore the ignorant.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: LC on January 24, 2020, 09:22:37 PM
Take photos, spread the news. The world needs to know the humanitarian crisis that is developing. If this as bad as it sounds, it will need a coordinated effort to solve.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: muscleman on January 24, 2020, 09:59:26 PM
Take photos, spread the news. The world needs to know the humanitarian crisis that is developing. If this as bad as it sounds, it will need a coordinated effort to solve.

Plenty of photos here collected by abyli. Empty supply bins for masks, gloves and eye goggles.
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/r0MgCEtpYRocZECSPcpDXA

I also have photos of dead bodies on the ground in the hospital for hours with no one taking care of. They are covered by white cloth so I can tell they are already dead.
While at the same time, I have a photo of the Provincial Governor on TV saying that they have plenty of supply and there is nothing to worry about!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: fareastwarriors on January 24, 2020, 11:03:11 PM
Take photos, spread the news. The world needs to know the humanitarian crisis that is developing. If this as bad as it sounds, it will need a coordinated effort to solve.

Plenty of photos here collected by abyli. Empty supply bins for masks, gloves and eye goggles.
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/r0MgCEtpYRocZECSPcpDXA

I also have photos of dead bodies on the ground in the hospital for hours with no one taking care of. They are covered by white cloth so I can tell they are already dead.
While at the same time, I have a photo of the Provincial Governor on TV saying that they have plenty of supply and there is nothing to worry about!

I hope your relatives will be okay. I'm a fob myself and have plenty of relatives there but in Guangdong.

People outside of China don't know, but you can't really trust anything there.
Stay safe people!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Cigarbutt on January 25, 2020, 04:29:22 AM
As with many phenomena, there are fundamental and sentimental aspects. There is an underlying core of real disease activity and potential outcomes with, in the early stages, a potentially significant amount of uncertainty. The role of public authority is paramount but difficult. Vigilance needs to be raised but mass hysteria is just around the corner. The most relevant comparable is the SARS episode (2002-3). It's interesting to remember that the 'crisis' had revealed weak aspects of China's governance resulting in a significant turnover in high level officials. China then was criticized for hesitations and lack of transparency. I wonder if they are not doing too much in a way (massive quarantine orders, building a hospital in a few days). It's also interesting to remember that, during the SARS epidemic, Vietnam had done much better than Canada, in terms of handling the fundamental and sentimental aspects of the problem, despite allocating much less ressources.

If you have a personal connection somehow, some part of the information-gathering exercise should perhaps involve periodic checks on official sites (CDC-like etc) and a review of the SARS episode may provide some perspective.
https://www.who.int/whr/2003/en/Chapter5.pdf
If you don't have a personal connection and feel anxiety, nonspecific internet exposure may not be the best way to alleviate concerns.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SharperDingaan on January 25, 2020, 05:07:57 AM
Some things to keep in mind:

This is China. Asian culture.
We may think it out of place in this situation, but 'face saving' will be a material factor.

Building a 1,000 bed hospital in a week, really means a big cluster of multiple tents and MASH units, in one place. Behind closed tent, isolation wards and morgues in one big city. Where are the rest of them? and where are the pictures of the 'cured' people walking out of them? 

Canceling new year, clamping down on chunyun, quaranteing 30M people in major cities, is not a minor response. It is what was typically done in Europe, during plague and cholera outbreaks. Medicine, and our response to outbreaks is a lot better today, but there are still a lot of bodies. Limits ability to contain panic. 

A published, and fully decoded viral gene sequence within days is unusual. Could be just serendipity and hard work, but it could also be something already known, that escaped a lab somewhere. We will never know, but assume the worst.

The Asian Development Bank looked at the economic impact of SARS in a number of East and Southeast Asian economies, and explored the short-term economic impact of SARS as well as the channels through which the Impact of SARS was felt. Page 2 of the report; The impact of SARS critically depends on (i) the seriousness of SARS, (ii) the duration of SARS, and (iii) the structure of an economy, particularly the importance of service industries in GDP. https://www.adb.org/publications/sars-economic-impacts-and-implications

In 2020, we are probably looking at LESS of an economic impact. Nervousness spread by internet, just makes it look scarier.
Yet according to some markets ... the Chinese economy is about to fall apart because of this?
Opportunity is knocking?

SD
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spekulatius on January 25, 2020, 07:12:20 AM
Take photos, spread the news. The world needs to know the humanitarian crisis that is developing. If this as bad as it sounds, it will need a coordinated effort to solve.

Plenty of photos here collected by abyli. Empty supply bins for masks, gloves and eye goggles.
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/r0MgCEtpYRocZECSPcpDXA

I also have photos of dead bodies on the ground in the hospital for hours with no one taking care of. They are covered by white cloth so I can tell they are already dead.
While at the same time, I have a photo of the Provincial Governor on TV saying that they have plenty of supply and there is nothing to worry about!

Best of wishes to your relatives. My wife (who speaks some Chinese) also looked at some news and told me that it looks quite concerning and that I should look into 3M stock.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Castanza on January 25, 2020, 07:24:49 AM
Take photos, spread the news. The world needs to know the humanitarian crisis that is developing. If this as bad as it sounds, it will need a coordinated effort to solve.

Plenty of photos here collected by abyli. Empty supply bins for masks, gloves and eye goggles.
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/r0MgCEtpYRocZECSPcpDXA

I also have photos of dead bodies on the ground in the hospital for hours with no one taking care of. They are covered by white cloth so I can tell they are already dead.
While at the same time, I have a photo of the Provincial Governor on TV saying that they have plenty of supply and there is nothing to worry about!

Best of wishes to your relatives. My wife (who speaks some Chinese) also looked at some news and told me that it looks quite concerning and that I should look into 3M stock.

APT is also a bit interesting
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spekulatius on January 25, 2020, 07:39:22 AM
Take photos, spread the news. The world needs to know the humanitarian crisis that is developing. If this as bad as it sounds, it will need a coordinated effort to solve.

Plenty of photos here collected by abyli. Empty supply bins for masks, gloves and eye goggles.
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/r0MgCEtpYRocZECSPcpDXA

I also have photos of dead bodies on the ground in the hospital for hours with no one taking care of. They are covered by white cloth so I can tell they are already dead.
While at the same time, I have a photo of the Provincial Governor on TV saying that they have plenty of supply and there is nothing to worry about!

Best of wishes to your relatives. My wife (who speaks some Chinese) also looked at some news and told me that it looks quite concerning and that I should look into 3M stock.

APT is also a bit interesting

Well some traders have noticed. however, the business has been around forever  and has gone nowhere. most or the revenue is related to construction. Of course 3M is so large that there isn’t much real exposure either, but I notice that the brand recognition caused the stock to be relatively strong on an otherwise down day.

My own bet will probably be on the rebound of some travel related stocks like airlines or hotels. I am watching IHG for the latter, which is a well run asset light hotel international  franchise business.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: nodnub on January 25, 2020, 03:46:28 PM
https://twitter.com/i/status/1220641000063848448

https://streamable.com/drpdz


Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: DocSnowball on January 25, 2020, 04:17:57 PM
@muscleman sorry to hear about your family members. One thing to add would be that in the middle of an epidemic, all the bodies may not represent Coronavirus, they could be other diseases as well and the staff is just swamped.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/01/doubts-rise-about-chinas-ability-contain-new-coronavirus (http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/01/doubts-rise-about-chinas-ability-contain-new-coronavirus)

This is an interesting piece out today. A few things are emerging - if the link was from snake or an exotic animal and to a single human, then the virus has been transmitted from human to human quite effectively so far. The New England Journal of Medicine paper out also suggests that the virus is attaching to upper airway epithelial cells more effectively than prior ones causing outbreaks.

This estimate puts it that each infected person is spreading it to 2.6 more people (range 1.5 to 3.5). This is much more than SARS or MERS-CoV. The fatality rate is possibly lesser then, otherwise it would have come to attention sooner. We'll have to see - transmissibility and morbidity/mortality are the two most important factors. The cat is out of the bag at this point.

I also think this will play out over 3-6 months and the short term is likely to bring more bad news. The large scale actions being taken now in China are to be lauded. Interested, but not able to predict where this will go. Likely will spread but mortality rate might not be as high as we initially think.

Another thing that can happen with coronaviruses is that they can evolve during human to human transmission - so there may be a base case scenario where it is transmissible (already) but low mortality, and a less likely but possible worst case scenario where it is transmissible and high mortality.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nell-e on January 25, 2020, 04:41:07 PM
@muscleman

Best wishes to you and your family.  I find the worst case stories much more believable than the official numbers.  I don't trust the Chinese government.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: abyli on January 25, 2020, 06:15:47 PM
https://www.facebook.com/pttcitizen1985/videos/490429341619548/?v=490429341619548
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: StubbleJumper on January 25, 2020, 07:05:43 PM
First off, on public health I don't know shit from shinola.  But, I would take this opportunity to make a quick comparison of this outbreak to the Mexican H1N1 outbreak from 10 years ago.  In both cases, you have a novel virus with a relatively modest r-nought but an apparently frightening case fatality rate.  But, in the case of H1N1, that apparent case fatality rate declined significantly over time, probably due to to a better measurement of the denominator.  Not to be too crass, but we are pretty good at measuring the numerator, because those are the dead guys and it's usually pretty obvious.  But, how many people had the virus and got better without ever encountering the public health system?  We are not that great at measuring the denominator.  Sometimes that apparent case fatality rate isn't as bad as it first seems, and once the virus hits the developed world, things sometimes are not as bad as they seem.

It doesn't help anyone whose family is infected, but for those of us who are far from the outbreak, it's worth reflecting on past lessons.


SJ
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spekulatius on January 25, 2020, 07:18:59 PM
First off, on public health I don't know shit from shinola.  But, I would take this opportunity to make a quick comparison of this outbreak to the Mexican H1N1 outbreak from 10 years ago.  In both cases, you have a novel virus with a relatively modest r-nought but an apparently frightening case fatality rate.  But, in the case of H1N1, that apparent case fatality rate declined significantly over time, probably due to to a better measurement of the denominator.  Not to be too crass, but we are pretty good at measuring the numerator, because those are the dead guys and it's usually pretty obvious.  But, how many people had the virus and got better without ever encountering the public health system?  We are not that great at measuring the denominator.  Sometimes that apparent case fatality rate isn't as bad as it first seems, and once the virus hits the developed world, things sometimes are not as bad as they seem.

It doesn't help anyone whose family is infected, but for those of us who are far from the outbreak, it's worth reflecting on past lessons.


SJ

Past episodes seem to indicate that those epidemics don’t have much of an impact:
 https://twitter.com/renmacllc/status/1220761911610019843?s=21 (https://twitter.com/renmacllc/status/1220761911610019843?s=21)

I do recall SARS had some impact on the HK stock market at that time, but it tended to fade away quickly. There was some impact on travel related business in the area that was quite real, but even those recovered within a year or so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: StubbleJumper on January 25, 2020, 07:35:18 PM
First off, on public health I don't know shit from shinola.  But, I would take this opportunity to make a quick comparison of this outbreak to the Mexican H1N1 outbreak from 10 years ago.  In both cases, you have a novel virus with a relatively modest r-nought but an apparently frightening case fatality rate.  But, in the case of H1N1, that apparent case fatality rate declined significantly over time, probably due to to a better measurement of the denominator.  Not to be too crass, but we are pretty good at measuring the numerator, because those are the dead guys and it's usually pretty obvious.  But, how many people had the virus and got better without ever encountering the public health system?  We are not that great at measuring the denominator.  Sometimes that apparent case fatality rate isn't as bad as it first seems, and once the virus hits the developed world, things sometimes are not as bad as they seem.

It doesn't help anyone whose family is infected, but for those of us who are far from the outbreak, it's worth reflecting on past lessons.


SJ

Past episodes seem to indicate that those epidemics don’t have much of an impact:
 https://twitter.com/renmacllc/status/1220761911610019843?s=21 (https://twitter.com/renmacllc/status/1220761911610019843?s=21)

I do recall SARS had some impact on the HK stock market at that time, but it tended to fade away quickly. There was some impact on travel related business in the area that was quite real, but even those recovered within a year or so.


Well, the last numbers I saw were a bit alarming.  The last ones I saw were 56 deaths for 1,975 confirmed cases.  Frankly, if those are the correct numbers, it should scare the shit out of you because that would be a case fatality rate of 3%. But, should we believe those numbers?  I suspect that the 56 dead guys is probably a pretty decent number (maybe there are a few more who died from it, but were misattributed).  But should we believe the estimate of 1,975 cases of the virus?  Or is it really 10,000 cases of the virus, of which 8,000 never came to the attention of public health authorities because they stayed home and got better with no medical intervention?  There's a big difference between 56 dead guys out of 1,975 and 56 out of 10,000.  One is a pandemic that is scary as hell, and the other is not such a frightening event.

That's how H1N1 started out in Mexico.  The apparent case fatality rate was frighteningly high.  But, the Mexicans couldn't count what the people who never needed medical intervention.  So a nasty influenza that looked like a bad pandemic wasn't quite as bad as originally thought.  Let's hope that the denominator is wrong in this case too.


SJ
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: muscleman on January 25, 2020, 08:55:52 PM
First off, on public health I don't know shit from shinola.  But, I would take this opportunity to make a quick comparison of this outbreak to the Mexican H1N1 outbreak from 10 years ago.  In both cases, you have a novel virus with a relatively modest r-nought but an apparently frightening case fatality rate.  But, in the case of H1N1, that apparent case fatality rate declined significantly over time, probably due to to a better measurement of the denominator.  Not to be too crass, but we are pretty good at measuring the numerator, because those are the dead guys and it's usually pretty obvious.  But, how many people had the virus and got better without ever encountering the public health system?  We are not that great at measuring the denominator.  Sometimes that apparent case fatality rate isn't as bad as it first seems, and once the virus hits the developed world, things sometimes are not as bad as they seem.

It doesn't help anyone whose family is infected, but for those of us who are far from the outbreak, it's worth reflecting on past lessons.


SJ

Past episodes seem to indicate that those epidemics don’t have much of an impact:
 https://twitter.com/renmacllc/status/1220761911610019843?s=21 (https://twitter.com/renmacllc/status/1220761911610019843?s=21)

I do recall SARS had some impact on the HK stock market at that time, but it tended to fade away quickly. There was some impact on travel related business in the area that was quite real, but even those recovered within a year or so.


Well, the last numbers I saw were a bit alarming.  The last ones I saw were 56 deaths for 1,975 confirmed cases.  Frankly, if those are the correct numbers, it should scare the shit out of you because that would be a case fatality rate of 3%. But, should we believe those numbers?  I suspect that the 56 dead guys is probably a pretty decent number (maybe there are a few more who died from it, but were misattributed).  But should we believe the estimate of 1,975 cases of the virus?  Or is it really 10,000 cases of the virus, of which 8,000 never came to the attention of public health authorities because they stayed home and got better with no medical intervention?  There's a big difference between 56 dead guys out of 1,975 and 56 out of 10,000.  One is a pandemic that is scary as hell, and the other is not such a frightening event.

That's how H1N1 started out in Mexico.  The apparent case fatality rate was frighteningly high.  But, the Mexicans couldn't count what the people who never needed medical intervention.  So a nasty influenza that looked like a bad pandemic wasn't quite as bad as originally thought.  Let's hope that the denominator is wrong in this case too.


SJ

Right now the government only acknowledge cases tested by the PCR kit. However there is a shortage of such kits and most patients (like my two relatives) keep running to various hospitals day after day before they finally get tested.

The 1900 infection number is just a joke. The actual number is likely in the 100k range.
Check out SARS stats for example. 5k infections and 300 death in China, vs 1100 infections and 200 death in Hong Kong. The death rate almost doubles in Hong Kong. Is Hong Kong medical system that much worse than China? Or is someone faking the numbers?

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sleepydragon on January 26, 2020, 06:51:51 AM
There are rumors saying that the virus was accidentally released by a military research center in WuHan. It was initially intended to be used to stop the protests in HK.
It certainly did wonders in Paris. As soon as a woman from WuHan arrived in Paris, protests stopped and people rushed to buy musks.
Lol

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Pondside47 on January 26, 2020, 07:31:59 AM
I am from Wuhan and I have lots of friends and relatives there. I could tell you this: If you trust the government's stats of 500 infections and 17 deaths, it is no different from buying Chinese stocks merely based on their financial reports. All fake numbers.
The actual number is likely in the 100k range.
Right now even the doctors ran out of masks and gloves and are working unprotected. I don't know how much longer they can last before they are down.
I have 3 relatives infected. One staying at home, and two who spent 6 days going to each hospital to try to get hospitalized. They were all told one thing: We don't have resources for you. Go home. They finally got hospitalized yesterday. Think about it. That's after they are diagnosed positive. They are walking on the streets for 6 days while spreading the virus everywhere, with no hospital taking them in.
There are thousands and thousands of such patients.
There are also dead bodies everywhere in all hospitals. They are dead on the floor and for hours, no one comes to pick the bodies up. When they do get picked up, they are immediately sent to the funeral to be burned, without any diagnose of whether they got infected by this virus or else. Therefore the 17 death is just a joke.

Thanks for sharing that firsthand information. I hope everyone in your family ends up alright. What makes you think that’s the number has already hit 100k?

How wish his family member recover fully from the infection, but technically a lot of what muscleman said is hearsay not firsthand experience. My father's side family is from Wuhan as well and I hear from them quite the opposite. Yes some people are dying and yes we are short on medical supply due to the holidays. But things are getting better since the first month was virus attacking human unnoticed and now it's got the attention of us. Even if you multiply the official number by 10x and put it in the context of the size of population, it feels more hysteria than real catastrophe to me. How many people have died from the flu this season in the US?

None of my relatives have been infected and according to them the hysteria going around is mostly due to people panicking to rumors on social media. To you guys, what I just said goes into the hearsay category as well, other than the fact that none of my family has been infected. This whole situation is quite a hotbed for conspiracies.

Could the Wuhan government have responded better to this situation? The answer is absolutely yes, but the same answer goes for every crisis in every country. There is an article on WSJ yesterday about how 40 people died in Toronto during SARS while 0-1 died in Vancouver, and explained the difference in how hospital handled the infected patient in ER contributed the difference in the same country.  Quite an interesting read.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spekulatius on January 26, 2020, 07:45:11 AM
A clue season Worldwide infects roughly 41M people with 57k death (roughly ), so a 1/730mortality. Just to put things into perspective. The news is certainly scary, but it is well possible that the episode is not much different than a severe flu outbreak.
SARS was scary because mortality was high. I don’t think we have reliable numbers from the Soronavirus yet.
 http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2019/04/us-flu-still-elevated-dropping-deaths-high-57000 (http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2019/04/us-flu-still-elevated-dropping-deaths-high-57000)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: lnofeisone on January 26, 2020, 08:17:09 AM
I found this to be very informative. The sheer magnitude of the update between Jan 17th and 22nd is staggering. Really explains China's drastic measures.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/?fbclid=IwAR1YkF6-jQQqI8IYkAWIqhjAn1M5gNngTV4SNgH030OkKlE9y3leTB3uveQ

*Edited for date correction.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: gary17 on January 26, 2020, 10:28:55 AM
https://youtu.be/vcGITfaplN4

this is a reporter doing reporting in wuhan on youtube.  he’s a critic of the communist party so he’s been using proxy software to be posting on youtube in china.   
you can see from earlier videos he posted of hospital  scenes

it’s in mandarin but there’s plenty of footage that’s pretty self-explanatory


he is reporting that talking to a nurse yesterday, the crowding condition at the hospital appears to have died down somewhat, which i hope is a good sign
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Hjorth on January 26, 2020, 10:32:37 AM
There are rumors saying that the virus was accidentally released by a military research center in WuHan. It was initially intended to be used to stop the protests in HK.
It certainly did wonders in Paris. As soon as a woman from WuHan arrived in Paris, protests stopped and people rushed to buy musks.Lol

Perhaps it's time to take a closer look at something like :

Jardine Matheson Holdings Limited [J36.SI] &/or
Jardine Strategic Holdings Limited [J37.SI].

[Perhaps not.]
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sleepydragon on January 27, 2020, 06:46:03 AM
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10810762/coronavirus-outbreak-virus-escaping-chinese-lab-warning/

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Convexity on January 27, 2020, 11:52:44 AM
Late to the party here.  My $0.02:

Using the Wikipedia timeline for past couple of weeks:
- Roughly 40% daily growth rate in confirmed cases 
- Roughly 60% growth in deaths
- Roughly 60% growth in quarantines

Deaths outpacing confirmed cases.  But death rate is 0.02%, which is about the same as "standard" seasonal flu.

SARS was 10% death rate with thousands of cases
Avian flu was 50% death rate in humans with dozens of cases
Swine flu 0.02% in humans as well

Novel Coronavirus deaths also have only affected those groups typically susceptible to flu deaths.  Data therefore says the thing to worry about is time from infection to death. 

If person to person transmission outside of the quarantined areas in China happens, and the virus mutates and beings more harmful, then there's more concern.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: abyli on January 27, 2020, 11:57:09 AM
Late to the party here.

Using the Wikipedia timeline for past couple of weeks:
- Roughly 40% daily growth rate in confirmed cases 
- Roughly 60% growth in deaths
- Roughly 60% growth in quarantines

Deaths outpacing confirmed cases.  But death rate is 0.02%, which is the same as flu.

SARS was 10% death rate with thousands of cases
Avian flu was 50% death rate with dozens of cases

Incorrect, death rate in Wuhan is around 10%, in Hubei Province is around 5% so far....
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Convexity on January 27, 2020, 12:02:39 PM
Late to the party here.

Using the Wikipedia timeline for past couple of weeks:
- Roughly 40% daily growth rate in confirmed cases 
- Roughly 60% growth in deaths
- Roughly 60% growth in quarantines

Deaths outpacing confirmed cases.  But death rate is 0.02%, which is the same as flu.

SARS was 10% death rate with thousands of cases
Avian flu was 50% death rate with dozens of cases

Incorrect, death rate in Wuhan is around 10%, in Hubei Province is around 5% so far....

You're right that I'm wrong.  80/2744 is ~3% 

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: muscleman on January 27, 2020, 01:03:02 PM
There are many who got infected but never got confirmed because there is a huge shortage of the PCR test kit. Some of them die and quickly got burned. No stats in the official numbers. But there are also some of these guys who self cured.
So calculating the death rate from the official numbers is grossly inaccurate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: clutch on January 27, 2020, 01:20:13 PM
There are many who got infected but never got confirmed because there is a huge shortage of the PCR test kit. Some of them die and quickly got burned. No stats in the official numbers. But there are also some of these guys who self cured.
So calculating the death rate from the official numbers is grossly inaccurate.

You suspect 100k+ to be infected. Let's say around 1000 died (10x the official amount to be really skeptical) which would mean that the death rate is still only about 1%.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: zippy1 on January 27, 2020, 01:48:20 PM
Quote
As confirmed cases of a novel virus surge around the world with worrisome speed, all eyes have so far focused on a seafood market in Wuhan, China, as the origin of the outbreak. But a description of the first clinical cases published in The Lancet on Friday challenges that hypothesis.

The paper, written by a large group of Chinese researchers from several institutions, offers details about the first 41 hospitalized patients who had confirmed infections with what has been dubbed 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). In the earliest case, the patient became ill on 1 December 2019 and had no reported link to the seafood market, the authors report. “No epidemiological link was found between the first patient and later cases,” they state. Their data also show that, in total, 13 of the 41 cases had no link to the marketplace. “That’s a big number, 13, with no link,” says Daniel Lucey, an infectious disease specialist at Georgetown University.

Earlier reports from Chinese health authorities and the World Health Organization had said the first patient had onset of symptoms on 8 December 2019—and those reports simply said “most” cases had links to the seafood market, which was closed on 1 January.

Lucey says if the new data are accurate, the first human infections must have occurred in November 2019—if not earlier—because there is an incubation time between infection and symptoms surfacing. If so, the virus possibly spread silently between people in Wuhan—and perhaps elsewhere—before the cluster of cases from the city’s now-infamous Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market was discovered in late December. “The virus came into that marketplace before it came out of that marketplace,” Lucey asserts.
There is an article from Science about this:
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/wuhan-seafood-market-may-not-be-source-novel-virus-spreading-globally?fbclid=IwAR3DGPoNSLRJ6l3c1Zhpw5sBRhaDHdtnND8guR2t_Ut2cFcVK7ICnItM1jM

The Lancet paper in question can be found at:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext?fbclid=IwAR186GhA9ZBSRGn0Chp-FjzPuUdNEyinsDvwyY4iAkui8wiEX-yMKAdimfk
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: zippy1 on January 27, 2020, 01:54:26 PM
You may also find Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding's findings interesting.  His recent twits are quite alarming and got me worried:
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1221132573340061697
Quote
UPDATE: Transmission of #coronoavirus estimated at 2.6 by another research group (lower than the 3.8 initial reports). But 2.6 is still extremely bad —each infected person will infect 2.6 others. Even the authors admit #CoronaOutbreak containment will be very difficult.
Quote
His professional profile can be found here:
https://scholar.harvard.edu/ericding/home
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: nodnub on January 27, 2020, 01:56:04 PM
There are many who got infected but never got confirmed because there is a huge shortage of the PCR test kit. Some of them die and quickly got burned. No stats in the official numbers. But there are also some of these guys who self cured.
So calculating the death rate from the official numbers is grossly inaccurate.

You suspect 100k+ to be infected. Let's say around 1000 died (10x the official amount to be really skeptical) which would mean that the death rate is still only about 1%.

How do you calculate mortality rate when you don't know how many of the currently infected will eventually die (after say 2 weeks)?

Isn't the only way to do that accurately to have a controlled population of confirmed, infected patients and then measure how many are dead after 2-3 weeks?   I think the only way to get accuracy on that during the outbreak is to have a large group of infected individuals that you monitor.  And right now it looks like pandemonium in any city that has a large group of infected cases (so it's hard to measure).   That's what the Lancet study did for 41 patients in Wuhan and found that 6 out of 41 died (see under Discussion).

Also virus continues to mutate over time and can become easier (or harder) to spread.   Early version of "1918 spanish flu" were less fatal in Scandinavia in 1917.  More fatal version of the same virus evolved in following year.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: zippy1 on January 27, 2020, 02:10:12 PM
https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/status/1221068606877904897?s=21
Quote
R0 estimates for flu pandemics lie in the 1.5-2.5 range. Yes, Measles is much higher (10-15). An epidemic with an R0 of 2.5 could still infect between 60% and 90% of the population, depending on contact patterns and assuming no prior immunity. Not all might be symptomatic though.
The R0 for this thing is estimated to be 2.6 and some reported higher numbers such as 3.8.
60% of population and even at 1% case fatality rate is really bad.  I can see why Chinese government would shutdown Hubei province and locked down a population of 60 million.
The question seems to be "would this be enough?"
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: StubbleJumper on January 27, 2020, 02:29:12 PM
There are many who got infected but never got confirmed because there is a huge shortage of the PCR test kit. Some of them die and quickly got burned. No stats in the official numbers. But there are also some of these guys who self cured.
So calculating the death rate from the official numbers is grossly inaccurate.

You suspect 100k+ to be infected. Let's say around 1000 died (10x the official amount to be really skeptical) which would mean that the death rate is still only about 1%.

How do you calculate mortality rate when you don't know how many of the currently infected will eventually die (after say 2 weeks)?

Isn't the only way to do that accurately to have a controlled population of confirmed, infected patients and then measure how many are dead after 2-3 weeks?   I think the only way to get accuracy on that during the outbreak is to have a large group of infected individuals that you monitor.  And right now it looks like pandemonium in any city that has a large group of infected cases (so it's hard to measure).   That's what the Lancet study did for 41 patients in Wuhan and found that 6 out of 41 died (see under Discussion).

Also virus continues to mutate over time and can become easier (or harder) to spread.   Early version of "1918 spanish flu" were less fatal in Scandinavia in 1917.  More fatal version of the same virus evolved in following year.


My point earlier in the thread is that getting a handle on the denominator of the case fatality rate will probably be nearly impossible.  The only "cases" that public health authorities know about are the cases where people seek medical attention.  But, how many 25 and 30 year-old people became sick, but were not so sick that they chose to go to the doctor or to the emergency ward?  The confirmed cases are likely those who are more susceptible to the virus, either due to age or to being otherwise immuno-compromised.  The apparent case fatality rate is alarmingly high, but it's entirely possible that the denominator could be off by a factor of 4 or 5 because of people who never sought medical help, which would bring the case fatality rate back down to earth.

The other thing that might or might not happen is that the r-naught could come down as public health authorities communicate avoidance strategies to the population and infected people begin to better self-isolate.  But, that's just a faint hope at this point.

SJ
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: perulv on January 28, 2020, 04:03:19 AM
https://www.tomsguide.com/news/wuhan-virus-will-affect-iphone-and-other-electronics-production

"The area is not only one of the biggest producers of iron and steel, it’s considered a ”crucial hub in the middle of China”, with the Yangtze river going across it, three railway stations and an airport. It’s also considered a major automobile industry, electronics, optics and fiberoptics production site. In fact, 230 of the Fortune 500 companies have investment in this area."

Not much details in the article, though...  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: rogermunibond on January 28, 2020, 06:50:42 AM
Map tracking the spread and cases/deaths.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jurgis on January 28, 2020, 08:22:30 AM
I'm gonna predict that containment within China will fail (actually has already failed IMO).

I'm somewhat sure that containment outside China is also going to fail. But that's per country somewhat. I.e. Asian countries are more likely to fail than e.g. Switzerland.

I'm gonna predict that specific drugs addressing the virus won't be developed anytime soon ( 3 months+ ).
I'd say the vaccine - similar to flu shot - is more likely. Although probably will take couple months too. Also likely to have similar protection to flu vaccine - not guaranteed.

The hope is that the fatality rate is going to be low. At flu level or lower.



None of the above are deep insights. There are other people saying what I said. Just posting to have a reference in the future of what was my thinking at the current time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Convexity on January 28, 2020, 08:43:42 AM
There are many who got infected but never got confirmed because there is a huge shortage of the PCR test kit. Some of them die and quickly got burned. No stats in the official numbers. But there are also some of these guys who self cured.
So calculating the death rate from the official numbers is grossly inaccurate.

You suspect 100k+ to be infected. Let's say around 1000 died (10x the official amount to be really skeptical) which would mean that the death rate is still only about 1%.

How do you calculate mortality rate when you don't know how many of the currently infected will eventually die (after say 2 weeks)?

Isn't the only way to do that accurately to have a controlled population of confirmed, infected patients and then measure how many are dead after 2-3 weeks?   I think the only way to get accuracy on that during the outbreak is to have a large group of infected individuals that you monitor.  And right now it looks like pandemonium in any city that has a large group of infected cases (so it's hard to measure).   That's what the Lancet study did for 41 patients in Wuhan and found that 6 out of 41 died (see under Discussion).

Also virus continues to mutate over time and can become easier (or harder) to spread.   Early version of "1918 spanish flu" were less fatal in Scandinavia in 1917.  More fatal version of the same virus evolved in following year.


My point earlier in the thread is that getting a handle on the denominator of the case fatality rate will probably be nearly impossible.  The only "cases" that public health authorities know about are the cases where people seek medical attention.  But, how many 25 and 30 year-old people became sick, but were not so sick that they chose to go to the doctor or to the emergency ward?  The confirmed cases are likely those who are more susceptible to the virus, either due to age or to being otherwise immuno-compromised.  The apparent case fatality rate is alarmingly high, but it's entirely possible that the denominator could be off by a factor of 4 or 5 because of people who never sought medical help, which would bring the case fatality rate back down to earth.

The other thing that might or might not happen is that the r-naught could come down as public health authorities communicate avoidance strategies to the population and infected people begin to better self-isolate.  But, that's just a faint hope at this point.

SJ

Using this source: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.27.922443v1.full.pdf

The cases are ~27k.  The biggest unknown are the lag times/incubation periods.  Are the deaths happening from pre-symptomatic infections from 1 day ago? 10 days? 30?

I also haven't seen much stating that anyone who isn't susceptible to flu death (elderly, etc) has died.  Anyone know if this has been happening?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: muscleman on January 28, 2020, 09:11:31 AM
I'm gonna predict that containment within China will fail (actually has already failed IMO).

I'm somewhat sure that containment outside China is also going to fail. But that's per country somewhat. I.e. Asian countries are more likely to fail than e.g. Switzerland.

I'm gonna predict that specific drugs addressing the virus won't be developed anytime soon ( 3 months+ ).
I'd say the vaccine - similar to flu shot - is more likely. Although probably will take couple months too. Also likely to have similar protection to flu vaccine - not guaranteed.

The hope is that the fatality rate is going to be low. At flu level or lower.



None of the above are deep insights. There are other people saying what I said. Just posting to have a reference in the future of what was my thinking at the current time.

Despite all the bad news that I am telling you in this thread, I actually think the worse is over. Look at stock prices of LAKE and a few others. They are topping. Mr. Market is right most of the time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: StubbleJumper on January 28, 2020, 10:06:52 AM
There are many who got infected but never got confirmed because there is a huge shortage of the PCR test kit. Some of them die and quickly got burned. No stats in the official numbers. But there are also some of these guys who self cured.
So calculating the death rate from the official numbers is grossly inaccurate.

You suspect 100k+ to be infected. Let's say around 1000 died (10x the official amount to be really skeptical) which would mean that the death rate is still only about 1%.

How do you calculate mortality rate when you don't know how many of the currently infected will eventually die (after say 2 weeks)?

Isn't the only way to do that accurately to have a controlled population of confirmed, infected patients and then measure how many are dead after 2-3 weeks?   I think the only way to get accuracy on that during the outbreak is to have a large group of infected individuals that you monitor.  And right now it looks like pandemonium in any city that has a large group of infected cases (so it's hard to measure).   That's what the Lancet study did for 41 patients in Wuhan and found that 6 out of 41 died (see under Discussion).

Also virus continues to mutate over time and can become easier (or harder) to spread.   Early version of "1918 spanish flu" were less fatal in Scandinavia in 1917.  More fatal version of the same virus evolved in following year.


My point earlier in the thread is that getting a handle on the denominator of the case fatality rate will probably be nearly impossible.  The only "cases" that public health authorities know about are the cases where people seek medical attention.  But, how many 25 and 30 year-old people became sick, but were not so sick that they chose to go to the doctor or to the emergency ward?  The confirmed cases are likely those who are more susceptible to the virus, either due to age or to being otherwise immuno-compromised.  The apparent case fatality rate is alarmingly high, but it's entirely possible that the denominator could be off by a factor of 4 or 5 because of people who never sought medical help, which would bring the case fatality rate back down to earth.

The other thing that might or might not happen is that the r-naught could come down as public health authorities communicate avoidance strategies to the population and infected people begin to better self-isolate.  But, that's just a faint hope at this point.

SJ

Using this source: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.27.922443v1.full.pdf

The cases are ~27k.  The biggest unknown are the lag times/incubation periods.  Are the deaths happening from pre-symptomatic infections from 1 day ago? 10 days? 30?

I also haven't seen much stating that anyone who isn't susceptible to flu death (elderly, etc) has died.  Anyone know if this has been happening?


Actually they ran four scenarios, one of which considered the possibiltiy that there might have been up to 100k cases.  It's an interesting paper because it provides a framework for thinking about the outbreak, but the authors are by necessity relying on assumptions to parameterize their model.  Strangely, the paper makes me feel a bit better about this outbreak.

Everything that I have read suggests that it is the elderly and immunocompromised who have the greatest mortality.


SJ
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Cardboard on January 28, 2020, 03:43:21 PM
Key economically is that everything is paralyzed right now.

If you work with them, as I do, you have no idea when workers will return to work and what they will be capable of doing (only work from home?). Some that have left to visit family at the begining of Chinese New Year Holiday may not be allowed to return for a while.

If you have any kind of supply chain linked with China you have zero idea when things may resume, at what rate and then eventually return to normal? Most are hoping that it will only be next week that will be a write-off which is already quite a bit but, it may get much worst.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: LongHaul on January 28, 2020, 05:26:25 PM
I heard Grupo Modelo paid $10 million to name the Corona Virus.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: rkbabang on January 29, 2020, 09:06:11 AM
I heard Grupo Modelo paid $10 million to name the Corona Virus.

It's great served with a slice of lyme disease.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: rkbabang on January 29, 2020, 09:21:33 AM
So many people are searching for Corona Virus beer memes and jokes that journalists without senses of humor think that people don't know that beer has nothing to do with the virus.  These must be the same journalists who think people are sharing The Babylon Bee stories because they believe them to be true.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2020/01/29/coronavirus-corona-beer-surges-on-google-trends-as-virus-spreads/4606997002/

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-corona-beer-not-related-google-trends-2020-1

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/qjdvvd/a-disturbing-number-of-people-think-coronavirus-is-related-to-corona-beer
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spekulatius on January 29, 2020, 01:15:01 PM
I heard Grupo Modelo paid $10 million to name the Corona Virus.

It's great served with a slice of lyme disease.

An ad for Corona beer went viral, so to speak.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: DocSnowball on January 30, 2020, 06:41:26 AM
Two new pieces of information that are more concerning - definitely cash flows of any company related to China are going to be affected in the next 3 -6 months. If they don't control it yes, and if they do control it then as a lingering risk which rears its head up every few months when cases happen.

A new paper out of China:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.27.20018952v1.full.pdf+html (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.27.20018952v1.full.pdf+html)
this puts R0 at 4.08 (each infected person spreading to 4 more) and fatality rate at 6.5%. Also, the model fits best with a date of start of outbreak prior to Dec 15th 2019. Either that's true and very concerning, or the model will end up being revised.

Chinese cases update from yesterday - an interesting thing to note is the significant number of cases outside Wuhan and Hubei Province. This makes me expect transmission within China will be very very difficult to contain. Outside China, all it takes is a few people traveling while infected and a healthcare system that doesn't pick up early enough on the exposure history/ link to China (or someone doesn't reveal that for fear of discrimination or rejection)
 
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/01/who-experts-again-weigh-ncov-emergency-status-more-nations-affected
 (http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/01/who-experts-again-weigh-ncov-emergency-status-more-nations-affected)Chinese cases pass 6,000
"Early today China's Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported 1,459 new cases spanning 31 of its 33 provinces and administrating regions, boosting the overall total to 5,974. It also reported 26 more deaths, lifting the fatality count to 132. A situation update from the WHO said today that 1,239 illnesses are severe.

A Chinese medical site that flagged new reports from China's provinces and cities put the total this afternoon at 6,095 cases, 133 of them fatal. Hubei province, home to Wuhan, where the outbreak was first reported, accounts for roughly half of the cases, with four provinces now reporting more than 200 cases: Zhejiang, Guangdong, Hunan, and Henan.

Apart from affected parts of Hubei province, cities reporting the highest numbers of cases are Chongqing, Beijing, and Shanghai."
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jurgis on January 30, 2020, 06:56:03 AM
this puts R0 at 4.08 (each infected person spreading to 4 more) and fatality rate at 6.5%.

If this is true, we are looking at global meltdown, since containment is pretty clearly failing at least in China. Even assuming it doesn't fail outside China (which is doubtful), 6.5% fatality rate in China is huge and crippling.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: spartansaver on January 30, 2020, 10:00:55 AM
Two new pieces of information that are more concerning - definitely cash flows of any company related to China are going to be affected in the next 3 -6 months. If they don't control it yes, and if they do control it then as a lingering risk which rears its head up every few months when cases happen.

A new paper out of China:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.27.20018952v1.full.pdf+html (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.27.20018952v1.full.pdf+html)
this puts R0 at 4.08 (each infected person spreading to 4 more) and fatality rate at 6.5%. Also, the model fits best with a date of start of outbreak prior to Dec 15th 2019. Either that's true and very concerning, or the model will end up being revised.

Chinese cases update from yesterday - an interesting thing to note is the significant number of cases outside Wuhan and Hubei Province. This makes me expect transmission within China will be very very difficult to contain. Outside China, all it takes is a few people traveling while infected and a healthcare system that doesn't pick up early enough on the exposure history/ link to China (or someone doesn't reveal that for fear of discrimination or rejection)
 
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/01/who-experts-again-weigh-ncov-emergency-status-more-nations-affected
 (http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/01/who-experts-again-weigh-ncov-emergency-status-more-nations-affected)Chinese cases pass 6,000
"Early today China's Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported 1,459 new cases spanning 31 of its 33 provinces and administrating regions, boosting the overall total to 5,974. It also reported 26 more deaths, lifting the fatality count to 132. A situation update from the WHO said today that 1,239 illnesses are severe.

A Chinese medical site that flagged new reports from China's provinces and cities put the total this afternoon at 6,095 cases, 133 of them fatal. Hubei province, home to Wuhan, where the outbreak was first reported, accounts for roughly half of the cases, with four provinces now reporting more than 200 cases: Zhejiang, Guangdong, Hunan, and Henan.

Apart from affected parts of Hubei province, cities reporting the highest numbers of cases are Chongqing, Beijing, and Shanghai."


The inputs for that research paper seem to be rather useless. Taking the public figures (which are likely very inaccurate), and then putting those into a formula is "garbage in, garbage out." The more I've read about it, the more I think that most the info we have at this point is useless. The only thing I can say with reasonable confidence, is that it is more contagious than SARS (and I could be wrong about that). My reasoning - it has likely infected in a short amount of time more than SARS ever did (SARS info was likely also very understated).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Pondside47 on January 30, 2020, 10:14:53 AM
I don’t understand why people waste time reading things that are neither peer nor editorially reviewed medical papers...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: DocSnowball on January 30, 2020, 10:32:07 AM
You're right about the input and output being far from accurate due to use of publicly reported figures. Also, until we know how many are symptomatic vs asymptomatic, there is no clear denominator to make accurate predictions. That will become clearer with time and following a cohort closely in another city with robust diagnostic testing and follow up capability.

This one is peer-reviewed and puts the R0 at approximately 2.2 (limiting the R0 estimate to prior to January 4th 2020). It still calls for the aggressive control measures that are being put in place over the last week.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316?query=featured_home (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316?query=featured_home)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: LC on January 30, 2020, 04:04:38 PM
WHO declares global emergency:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51318246

Quote
The death toll now stands at 170 people in China.

The WHO said there had been 98 cases in 18 countries outside of the country, but no deaths.

Most cases have emerged in people who have travelled from the Chinese city of Wuhan, where the outbreak began.

However, there have been eight cases of human-to-human infection - in Germany, Japan, Vietnam and the United States.

Remember this is a disease which emerged only last month and yet there are already 7,736 confirmed cases in China and 12,167 suspected ones.

(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/F961/production/_110714836_optimised-coronavirus_faceted_map_jan_30-nc.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: muscleman on January 30, 2020, 05:29:39 PM
there are at least 100k infections in my hometown Wuhan alone. The government doesn’t want to admit it because it promised to treat all infected patients for free. (No different from Bernie Sanders free shit)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Pondside47 on January 31, 2020, 06:05:59 AM
there are at least 100k infections in my hometown Wuhan alone. The government doesn’t want to admit it because it promised to treat all infected patients for free. (No different from Bernie Sanders free shit)

If what you said is true, that makes this virus far less deadly than we think today?

On the investment side, these type of event usually marks the end of a long bear market. Just think about how the end of SARS marked the end of a long bear market in Asia. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: hyten1 on January 31, 2020, 06:18:01 AM
please provide facts, not speculation and fear mongering.  If there are 1 million infections (hypothetical to illustrate a point) without additional deaths that is actually a good thing, that means this virus is not as deadly as we thought it could be
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: mcliu on January 31, 2020, 08:41:27 AM
there are at least 100k infections in my hometown Wuhan alone. The government doesn’t want to admit it because it promised to treat all infected patients for free. (No different from Bernie Sanders free shit)

If what you said is true, that makes this virus far less deadly than we think today?

On the investment side, these type of event usually marks the end of a long bear market. Just think about how the end of SARS marked the end of a long bear market in Asia.
Is it possible they're hiding deaths as well as infections?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: hillfronter83 on January 31, 2020, 08:44:31 AM
there are at least 100k infections in my hometown Wuhan alone. The government doesn’t want to admit it because it promised to treat all infected patients for free. (No different from Bernie Sanders free shit)

If what you said is true, that makes this virus far less deadly than we think today?

On the investment side, these type of event usually marks the end of a long bear market. Just think about how the end of SARS marked the end of a long bear market in Asia.
Is it possible they're hiding deaths as well as infections?

If you look at numbers out of Wuhan and abroad, the death rate is indeed not that high. Similar to normal flu.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ERICOPOLY on January 31, 2020, 09:02:36 AM
Hypothetically, if you have 100 infected and the number of infected grows by 30% per day, you'll have 4,000 cases in 14 days. 

And none of the new cases will tally as deaths (yet) if the incubation period is 14 days.

The reports that I've seen haven't broken down the number of asymptomatic cases included in their reporting.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Pondside47 on January 31, 2020, 09:09:33 AM
there are at least 100k infections in my hometown Wuhan alone. The government doesn’t want to admit it because it promised to treat all infected patients for free. (No different from Bernie Sanders free shit)

If what you said is true, that makes this virus far less deadly than we think today?

On the investment side, these type of event usually marks the end of a long bear market. Just think about how the end of SARS marked the end of a long bear market in Asia.
Is it possible they're hiding deaths as well as infections?

Absolutely, but the death number would have to be 10x higher for the virus to be more deadly than what the official numbers tell us today, if the 100k infection number is correct as of today.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Pondside47 on January 31, 2020, 09:13:30 AM
there are at least 100k infections in my hometown Wuhan alone. The government doesn’t want to admit it because it promised to treat all infected patients for free. (No different from Bernie Sanders free shit)

If what you said is true, that makes this virus far less deadly than we think today?

On the investment side, these type of event usually marks the end of a long bear market. Just think about how the end of SARS marked the end of a long bear market in Asia.
Is it possible they're hiding deaths as well as infections?

If you look at numbers out of Wuhan and abroad, the death rate is indeed not that high. Similar to normal flu.

You also have to consider Wuhan is one of the least developed major city in China. The medical response in cities like Shenzhen will be much better. Shenzhen allegedly had 0 death during SARS and it’s located in the middle of guangdong which was one of the most affected provinces
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BG2008 on January 31, 2020, 09:14:29 AM
please provide facts, not speculation and fear mongering.  If there are 1 million infections (hypothetical to illustrate a point) without additional deaths that is actually a good thing, that means this virus is not as deadly as we thought it could be

Hyten,

I think you are thinking about this matter a little bit too much in the ways like a value investors who invested with Chinese RTOs in the 2011 to 2012.  I have been following Chinese WeChat and talking to people on the ground.  Shanghai is a pretty much a  ghost town now.  No one goes downstairs from their apartment.  You can call that heresay.  But I tend to trust my wife's friend who works for a biotech company in the US who has a PhD that it is a ghost town.    The facts are that they quarantine an area that has the population of New YOrk City, LA, and Chicago and still has 10mm pop left.  That's a fact.  I am not surprised at all if there were 100k infected in WuHan.  It's $10k RMB to stay at an ICU in China. So $1.6k USD.  Most of the population can't afford that.  There are definitely a lot more infection and death than the numbers that are official. 

Talk to a value investor in the western world, they pound the table and say "Don't fear monger, give me the facts." 
Talk to any Chinese person (wife and I are both Chinese) and we just know that the numbers are way more serious than the official stats. People have mentioned that the cause of death on certificates are often Pneumonia not Corona Virus despite the doctors telling family that it was definitely Corona virus.   

Why do you think the Chinese government is willing to shut down such large portion of its GDP? 

Don't be so dogmatic with the numbers and FACTs.  Learn to be a bit flexible with it and bake in a large range of potential figures.  Both the death rate and the infection rates are likely much larger. 

Invert the think, if the infectiousness isn't bad, will the Chinese government go to such length to quarantine?  If the death rate isn't bad, will the Chinese government go to such length to attack this?  To a certain extent, the reactions are likely over blown at this point, discount the seriousness by 50% and it is stil pretty bad. 

Yes, the death figure lags by quite a bit. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: hillfronter83 on January 31, 2020, 10:09:43 AM
please provide facts, not speculation and fear mongering.  If there are 1 million infections (hypothetical to illustrate a point) without additional deaths that is actually a good thing, that means this virus is not as deadly as we thought it could be

Hyten,

I think you are thinking about this matter a little bit too much in the ways like a value investors who invested with Chinese RTOs in the 2011 to 2012.  I have been following Chinese WeChat and talking to people on the ground.  Shanghai is a pretty much a  ghost town now.  No one goes downstairs from their apartment.  You can call that heresay.  But I tend to trust my wife's friend who works for a biotech company in the US who has a PhD that it is a ghost town.    The facts are that they quarantine an area that has the population of New YOrk City, LA, and Chicago and still has 10mm pop left.  That's a fact.  I am not surprised at all if there were 100k infected in WuHan.  It's $10k RMB to stay at an ICU in China. So $1.6k USD.  Most of the population can't afford that.  There are definitely a lot more infection and death than the numbers that are official. 

Talk to a value investor in the western world, they pound the table and say "Don't fear monger, give me the facts." 
Talk to any Chinese person (wife and I are both Chinese) and we just know that the numbers are way more serious than the official stats. People have mentioned that the cause of death on certificates are often Pneumonia not Corona Virus despite the doctors telling family that it was definitely Corona virus.   

Why do you think the Chinese government is willing to shut down such large portion of its GDP? 

Don't be so dogmatic with the numbers and FACTs.  Learn to be a bit flexible with it and bake in a large range of potential figures.  Both the death rate and the infection rates are likely much larger. 

Invert the think, if the infectiousness isn't bad, will the Chinese government go to such length to quarantine?  If the death rate isn't bad, will the Chinese government go to such length to attack this?  To a certain extent, the reactions are likely over blown at this point, discount the seriousness by 50% and it is stil pretty bad. 

Yes, the death figure lags by quite a bit.

I don't disagree that both patient and death numbers are probably much higher in Wuhan/Hubei area. China has under invested in healthcare infrastructure over the years. So resources are already stretched under normal condition. Now imagine there are suddenly 10 times more patients waiting in line to be checked out. That said, there is no incentive for areas outside Wuhan/Hubei to under report numbers.

Yes, people all over China are staying at home and not going to public space. And local governments everywhere are announcing extreme measures, such as mandatory face mask wearing in public places and canceling events, to counter the outbreak. But outside Wuhan/Hubei, I haven't seen concrete evidences contradicting opinions of medical experts in the west that the virus break is similar to flu in terms of contagiousness and death threat.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: no_free_lunch on January 31, 2020, 10:18:18 AM
Here is another data point from Japan.  This is just one data point and a relatively small sample but it would indicate the infection is WAY bigger than you are told.

Quote
Three Japanese who returned from Wuhan on a government-chartered flight have tested positive for the new coronavirus, the health ministry said Thursday as more Japanese evacuees from the Chinese city arrived in Tokyo.

The three — one in stable condition and two without symptoms — were among 206 people brought back Wednesday from Wuhan amid a deadly outbreak started by the pneumonia-causing virus.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/01/30/national/three-japanese-wuhan-coronavirus/#.XjRujCNMFhE

So they pulled back 206 people and 3 of them (or 1.5%) have CoronaVirus.  Think about the implications.  If there are 50 million people in the infection zone and they had similar infection rates (and why wouldn't they) that would be 750k infections.   

Conversely, if there are really only 5k infections on a population of 50m, then that is 1 in 10k.  You would NOT expect to see 3 / 206 (1/67) infected on the Japanese plane.

I am not saying that is the actual rate, again small sample size, but I do think it is very plausible that it is significantly higher than we are told.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BG2008 on January 31, 2020, 10:24:18 AM
please provide facts, not speculation and fear mongering.  If there are 1 million infections (hypothetical to illustrate a point) without additional deaths that is actually a good thing, that means this virus is not as deadly as we thought it could be

Hyten,

I think you are thinking about this matter a little bit too much in the ways like a value investors who invested with Chinese RTOs in the 2011 to 2012.  I have been following Chinese WeChat and talking to people on the ground.  Shanghai is a pretty much a  ghost town now.  No one goes downstairs from their apartment.  You can call that heresay.  But I tend to trust my wife's friend who works for a biotech company in the US who has a PhD that it is a ghost town.    The facts are that they quarantine an area that has the population of New YOrk City, LA, and Chicago and still has 10mm pop left.  That's a fact.  I am not surprised at all if there were 100k infected in WuHan.  It's $10k RMB to stay at an ICU in China. So $1.6k USD.  Most of the population can't afford that.  There are definitely a lot more infection and death than the numbers that are official. 

Talk to a value investor in the western world, they pound the table and say "Don't fear monger, give me the facts." 
Talk to any Chinese person (wife and I are both Chinese) and we just know that the numbers are way more serious than the official stats. People have mentioned that the cause of death on certificates are often Pneumonia not Corona Virus despite the doctors telling family that it was definitely Corona virus.   

Why do you think the Chinese government is willing to shut down such large portion of its GDP? 

Don't be so dogmatic with the numbers and FACTs.  Learn to be a bit flexible with it and bake in a large range of potential figures.  Both the death rate and the infection rates are likely much larger. 

Invert the think, if the infectiousness isn't bad, will the Chinese government go to such length to quarantine?  If the death rate isn't bad, will the Chinese government go to such length to attack this?  To a certain extent, the reactions are likely over blown at this point, discount the seriousness by 50% and it is stil pretty bad. 

Yes, the death figure lags by quite a bit.

I don't disagree that both patient and death numbers are probably much higher in Wuhan/Hubei area. China has under invested in healthcare infrastructure over the years. So resources are already stretched under normal condition. Now imagine there are suddenly 10 times more patients waiting in line to be checked out. That said, there is no incentive for areas outside Wuhan/Hubei to under report numbers.

Yes, people all over China are staying at home and not going to public space. And local governments everywhere are announcing extreme measures, such as mandatory face mask wearing in public places and canceling events, to counter the outbreak. But outside Wuhan/Hubei, I haven't seen concrete evidences contradicting opinions of medical experts in the west that the virus break is similar to flu in terms of contagiousness and death threat.

Maybe wait 2 weeks?  The FACTs can wait till we get more clarity.  No need to be a hero on both sides.  I am avoiding subways in NYC for now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: rb on January 31, 2020, 10:42:45 AM
Maybe wait 2 weeks?  The FACTs can wait till we get more clarity.  No need to be a hero on both sides.  I am avoiding subways in NYC for now.
When I'm there in the summer I pretty much avoid them all the time, virus or no virus   8)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: hyten1 on January 31, 2020, 10:45:26 AM
BG2008,

i agree, but why create fear and throw out numbers when the numbers are pure speculation. sure you can tell anecdotal situations.

lets not put words in my mouth, or insinuate whatever you want to insinuate on what i said.

death rate can be a lot higher so can infection rate, its the ratio that really determine the severity of this virus. since we have no idea what these numbers are creating fear and panic doesn't do anyone any good. I am not saying walking around like nothing happens or only do something until the "facts" are in.


You are not the only who reads, I am aware of all these things you stated. Inversion is not a concept that so difficult that escape my thought process.



please provide facts, not speculation and fear mongering.  If there are 1 million infections (hypothetical to illustrate a point) without additional deaths that is actually a good thing, that means this virus is not as deadly as we thought it could be

Hyten,

I think you are thinking about this matter a little bit too much in the ways like a value investors who invested with Chinese RTOs in the 2011 to 2012.  I have been following Chinese WeChat and talking to people on the ground.  Shanghai is a pretty much a  ghost town now.  No one goes downstairs from their apartment.  You can call that heresay.  But I tend to trust my wife's friend who works for a biotech company in the US who has a PhD that it is a ghost town.    The facts are that they quarantine an area that has the population of New YOrk City, LA, and Chicago and still has 10mm pop left.  That's a fact.  I am not surprised at all if there were 100k infected in WuHan.  It's $10k RMB to stay at an ICU in China. So $1.6k USD.  Most of the population can't afford that.  There are definitely a lot more infection and death than the numbers that are official. 

Talk to a value investor in the western world, they pound the table and say "Don't fear monger, give me the facts." 
Talk to any Chinese person (wife and I are both Chinese) and we just know that the numbers are way more serious than the official stats. People have mentioned that the cause of death on certificates are often Pneumonia not Corona Virus despite the doctors telling family that it was definitely Corona virus.   

Why do you think the Chinese government is willing to shut down such large portion of its GDP? 

Don't be so dogmatic with the numbers and FACTs.  Learn to be a bit flexible with it and bake in a large range of potential figures.  Both the death rate and the infection rates are likely much larger. 

Invert the think, if the infectiousness isn't bad, will the Chinese government go to such length to quarantine?  If the death rate isn't bad, will the Chinese government go to such length to attack this?  To a certain extent, the reactions are likely over blown at this point, discount the seriousness by 50% and it is stil pretty bad. 

Yes, the death figure lags by quite a bit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BG2008 on January 31, 2020, 11:00:23 AM
BG2008,

i agree, but why create fear and throw out numbers when the numbers are pure speculation. sure you can tell anecdotal situations.

lets not put words in my mouth, or insinuate whatever you want to insinuate on what i said.

death rate can be a lot higher so can infection rate, its the ratio that really determine the severity of this virus. since we have no idea what these numbers are creating fear and panic doesn't do anyone any good. I am not saying walking around like nothing happens or only do something until the "facts" are in.





please provide facts, not speculation and fear mongering.  If there are 1 million infections (hypothetical to illustrate a point) without additional deaths that is actually a good thing, that means this virus is not as deadly as we thought it could be

Hyten,

I think you are thinking about this matter a little bit too much in the ways like a value investors who invested with Chinese RTOs in the 2011 to 2012.  I have been following Chinese WeChat and talking to people on the ground.  Shanghai is a pretty much a  ghost town now.  No one goes downstairs from their apartment.  You can call that heresay.  But I tend to trust my wife's friend who works for a biotech company in the US who has a PhD that it is a ghost town.    The facts are that they quarantine an area that has the population of New YOrk City, LA, and Chicago and still has 10mm pop left.  That's a fact.  I am not surprised at all if there were 100k infected in WuHan.  It's $10k RMB to stay at an ICU in China. So $1.6k USD.  Most of the population can't afford that.  There are definitely a lot more infection and death than the numbers that are official. 

Talk to a value investor in the western world, they pound the table and say "Don't fear monger, give me the facts." 
Talk to any Chinese person (wife and I are both Chinese) and we just know that the numbers are way more serious than the official stats. People have mentioned that the cause of death on certificates are often Pneumonia not Corona Virus despite the doctors telling family that it was definitely Corona virus.   

Why do you think the Chinese government is willing to shut down such large portion of its GDP? 

Don't be so dogmatic with the numbers and FACTs.  Learn to be a bit flexible with it and bake in a large range of potential figures.  Both the death rate and the infection rates are likely much larger. 

Invert the think, if the infectiousness isn't bad, will the Chinese government go to such length to quarantine?  If the death rate isn't bad, will the Chinese government go to such length to attack this?  To a certain extent, the reactions are likely over blown at this point, discount the seriousness by 50% and it is stil pretty bad. 

Yes, the death figure lags by quite a bit.

Hyten,

Perhaps my reaction to you is due to knowing this HF analyst at a large fund.  He tends to moderate the conversation and he would literally pound the table and ask for facts.  So, I might've had an image of him when I typed that.  I promise you I am a pretty civil person.   

The right way to react is probably somewhere in between.    Actually, thanks for Muscleman's information, I actually started buying some puts in CAT, Prologis (sector hedge), Royal Carribean (Does anyone want to cruise now?  There is a ship with 6,000 people stranded on it), etc.  My wife was very cagey about not letting me travel because of chatter on WeChat about Corona Virus.  I hedged out my risk in DD with some $47.50 puts (more for macor than earnings reason).  I did all of this on Monday.  Today, I bought some SPY put spreads that pay out 8.3x if the SPY goes down 15% from here.  Probably over reaction on my part.  But I like to hedge my portfolio and have dry powder ready.   

In a way, Muscleman's anecdotes actually created a ton of information edge.  I wish my daughter didn't need a pediatrician visit yesterday.  I probably would've sat down to buy more puts.  In a unforeseen twist of fate, being Chinese and being able to read Chinese and watch Chinese video became an edge.  But I would've never caught onto this if this thread did not exist. 

Thank you everyone for the conversation.  I actually think that Boeing is probably a good short here.  Still has issues with the MAX and now US airlines won't fly to China.  Seems richly valued at 18x FCF or whatever. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BG2008 on January 31, 2020, 11:02:09 AM
BTW, the Chinese government forbids discussion of Corona Virus on WeChat.  I have noticed a lot of information flow has died down. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: rb on January 31, 2020, 11:02:50 AM
Interesting article on Marketwatch:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coronavirus-is-less-deadly-than-sars-but-that-may-explain-why-its-so-contagious-2020-01-30?mod=home-page

Quote
“There are likely to be many times more cases in Wuhan than officially confirmed,” Neil Ferguson, a disease modeler at Imperial College London, told The Wall Street Journal. The paper also said some families have voiced their concern and frustration that their relatives’ cause of death was marked as “severe pneumonia” or “viral pneumonia” on their death certificates.

“Clearly, the hospitals are overwhelmed,” Ferguson said.

This is basically congruent with what BG has been saying. Another bit:

Quote
Yaxue Cao, founder and editor of the political pressure group ChinaChange.org, said a Wuhan doctor said in a WeChat group in late December that there were “7 cases of SARS connected to the seafood market.” He was then scolded by the party disciplinary office, and forced to retract that, Cao said.

From the same report, we learned that Wuhan health authorities were having overnight meetings about the new ‘SARS’ at end of December,” Cao posted on Twitter Jan. 27. “Earlier today the Wuhan mayor said he was not ‘authorized’ to publicize the epidemic until Jan. 20.”

Wuhan mayor Zhou Xianwang said 5 million people had left the city before travel restrictions were imposed ahead of the Chinese New Year. Ma Xiaowei, the director of China’s National Health Commission, said that the virus had an incubation period of 10 to 14 days.

If this stuff is true then the people handling this on the Chinese side must be some of the biggest idiots that God ever let through the door!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Pondside47 on January 31, 2020, 11:02:59 AM
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/asia/china-coronavirus-contain.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/asia/china-coronavirus-contain.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage)

They decided to put the fatality rate on a log scale... this looks like it's half as fatal as Ebola... journalists are in the same league as investment bankers now
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: hyten1 on January 31, 2020, 11:06:16 AM
i hear what you are saying, I am also chinese. I just think being calm, take in all the facts, (anecdotal is fact as long as you don't extrapolate it to the extreme) is the right way to do it.

you said it gives you an edge, perhaps, but it can also create undue fear and make you do things that you might not have done out of fear. obviously i have no idea how this will turn of, every trade you have done could all be winners due to your chinese edge, then again it could not be, it might of cause you to overreact. Yes I understand better safe then sorry etc. etc.



Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Pondside47 on January 31, 2020, 11:16:42 AM
BTW, the Chinese government forbids discussion of Corona Virus on WeChat.  I have noticed a lot of information flow has died down.

I don't think the government forbids discussion since I'm still discussing it with my relatives in Wuhan. But I understand a lot of the chat groups throwing rumors around have been banned temporarily. How is that different than some of the comments that have been blocked by Boston Globe? It makes me really want to see those comments!

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/01/31/metro/fears-coronavirus-fuel-anti-chinese-racism/?_sp=390b3cb1-9518-485e-b77b-58421f43c53a.1580497975164&s_campaign=bdc:globewell:trending&_sp=390b3cb1-9518-485e-b77b-58421f43c53a.1580497975164&s_campaign=bdc:globewell:trending (https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/01/31/metro/fears-coronavirus-fuel-anti-chinese-racism/?_sp=390b3cb1-9518-485e-b77b-58421f43c53a.1580497975164&s_campaign=bdc:globewell:trending&_sp=390b3cb1-9518-485e-b77b-58421f43c53a.1580497975164&s_campaign=bdc:globewell:trending)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: muscleman on January 31, 2020, 11:20:14 AM
there are at least 100k infections in my hometown Wuhan alone. The government doesn’t want to admit it because it promised to treat all infected patients for free. (No different from Bernie Sanders free shit)

If what you said is true, that makes this virus far less deadly than we think today?

On the investment side, these type of event usually marks the end of a long bear market. Just think about how the end of SARS marked the end of a long bear market in Asia.
Is it possible they're hiding deaths as well as infections?

I think that's true. If you look at SARS death rate, it is only 11% in China vs 20% in Hong Kong. Either the Chinese medical system is way better than Hong Kong or you know......

Let me give you some details as I have classmates actually working in the CDC in Wuhan. Earlier this month, they only give out 200 PCR test kits per day and only acknowledge infections tested positive by the kit. There were tons of people who could not get tested. It is recently increased to 2000 kits per day, which is why you see the steady increase in infection numbers recently.
When there are not enough kits to be used on people still alive, how would you expect them to test on people who died? No way to waste a kit for that. Those people who died will never show up in the number.

The test kit's sensitivity is also adjusted to a low level. I heard a case today that a patient was considered cured as his test kit shows negativity after two tests in 3 days, and was discharged to his home, and then infected his family. His family has been staying at home for the whole time.


Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: hyten1 on January 31, 2020, 01:41:28 PM
in the the days of social media any tiny bit of (miss)information can be spread throughout the entire population in an instance especially when fear is involve.

just look at NYC today, a rumor of first case in queens was supposedly reported (spread like wildfire on social media), however it has been denied by the officials. now some will say, "oh the officials are covering it up", but we have to be calm, take a deep breadth, take precaution, but lets not create a panic and create more issue than it really out to be.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2020/01/31/nyc-officials-deny-report-of-coronavirus-amid-confusion/#66c78e01652c

some will argue official are banning people from talking about this on wechat, look the big government is at it again, a cover up, but lets take everything with  grain of salt. there are good reason why this might of been done (we don't really know if it censorship or good common sense). panic can be spread very very quickly in days of iphones, social media.


EDIT: my mom was at a supermarket today (regular american supermarket) while she was leaving the checkout counter, she cough (she is 80 an old chinese lady), she barely had a chance to raise her arm up to cover her mouth (she was holding 2 bags of things she bought from the supermarket). The cash out counter lady yelled at her and said, cover your month when you cough. Now this could just be normal behavior (anytime you cough you should cover your mouth), but then again this has never happen to her before, you can't but wonder why.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jurgis on January 31, 2020, 01:58:54 PM
EDIT: my mom was at a supermarket today (regular american supermarket) while she was leaving the checkout counter, she cough (she is 80 an old chinese lady), she barely had a chance to raise her arm up to cover her mouth (she was holding 2 bags of things she bought from the supermarket). The cash out counter lady yelled at her and said, cover your month when you cough. Now this could just be normal behavior (anytime you cough you should cover your mouth), but then again this has never happen to her before, you can't but wonder why.

Yes, there is some panic and panic-based racism.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/no-chinese-allowed-racism-and-fear-are-now-spreading-along-with-the-coronavirus-2020-01-29

 :'(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gregmal on January 31, 2020, 02:01:05 PM
There will certainly be no shortage of Chinesepeoplephobia in America now....
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: hyten1 on January 31, 2020, 02:04:43 PM
here are some good info, if you can read it

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/asia/china-coronavirus-contain.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage?utm_source=digg
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Pondside47 on January 31, 2020, 02:07:45 PM
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191?query=featured_home (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191?query=featured_home)

The first reported case in the US seems to be gotten better. Either the virus will make a comeback or he may get discharged soon.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: shhughes1116 on January 31, 2020, 03:09:28 PM
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191?query=featured_home (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191?query=featured_home)

The first reported case in the US seems to be gotten better. Either the virus will make a comeback or he may get discharged soon.

Still hospitalized after 11 days, treated for pneumonia-like symptoms during his hospital stay.   And this was a “mild case” presenting to the hospital because he saw the media alerts, not because he was desperate for care.  Hard to draw any positive conclusions from this, aside from CDCs EOC, and state/local departments of health got some practice dealing with this while things are still quiet. 

The long incubation period, reports of infectivity while the carrier is asymptomatic, and the fact that re-infection seems to be possible with this virus, should be very concerning to all governments watching this unfold.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BG2008 on January 31, 2020, 03:19:54 PM
Muscleman and other with family who are affected by the Coronavirus.  I apologize for my potential business-like comment.  I have tried my best to avoid infection and this thread has been very informative.  In the meantime, I have monetized some of the information here towards my trading.  We now literally have a press release from one of my portfolio companies talking about increasing non-woven materials production for the use in masks and suits in China. 

Berry Global Increases Production to Aid in Coronavirus Protection
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200131005586/en/Berry-Global-Increases-Production-Aid-Coronavirus-Protection

It's a bizarre world we live in.  I think there will be many more corporate headlines coming soon....

I hope everyone feel better
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: cherzeca on January 31, 2020, 03:20:47 PM
see the sometimes reliable ZH for suspicion that the virus was bio-engineered as weapon:  https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/coronavirus-contains-hiv-insertions-stoking-fears-over-artificially-created-bioweapon
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Pondside47 on January 31, 2020, 03:51:48 PM
Since we have some Chinese on this forum, if you want to donate to the efforts and couldn't find way that seem reliable, Li Lu is organizing a donation effort to support cities around Wuhan that need medical equipments.

http://www.himalayacapital.com/chinese/20200130NewRelease.htm (http://www.himalayacapital.com/chinese/20200130NewRelease.htm)



Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Castanza on January 31, 2020, 04:54:32 PM
My sister and brother in-law flew through Beijing on their way back to Laos (Jan 18). Luckily they made it through the quarantine. They haven’t been tested yet (not available) but haven’t had any symptoms yet. They did say that public buildings and schools (at least in Vientiane) are beginning to close.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: gokou3 on January 31, 2020, 05:41:50 PM
Since we have some Chinese on this forum, if you want to donate to the efforts and couldn't find way that seem reliable, Li Lu is organizing a donation effort to support cities around Wuhan that need medical equipments.

http://www.himalayacapital.com/chinese/20200130NewRelease.htm (http://www.himalayacapital.com/chinese/20200130NewRelease.htm)

There have been many previous cases in China (not referring to Li Lu's, but in general) where donations have gone missing or directly into the Party comrades' pockets.  I am sure the Chinese govt with all its might and power can come up with the required resources on its own.



Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: DocSnowball on January 31, 2020, 06:57:08 PM
Watching closely, hoping and praying for the best from a humanitarian perspective. Glad to see lower mortality so far in non-China cases, 0 out of 98 so far. Impressed with how many value investors read medical journals!

I've been wanting to rebuild my portfolio David Swensen style with around 30%-35% EM equities with at least 10% China and 10% India (currently EM is at 5% of portfolio, down from 9% earlier this month). My thought process with infectious outbreaks is to wait it out for two incubation periods of stability, which is standard practice used by public health departments (14 x 2 = 28 days here) before calling it all clear. We are a long way away from that, perhaps 1-6 months depending on how things unfold, plus whatever happens on other fronts in the interim. Still, once this runs through China, that may be a good bet in the longer term. Wonder how others are using these developments to think about asset allocation. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gregmal on January 31, 2020, 07:07:17 PM
I was reviewing some information with a couple folks for a portfolio company today, and of distinct notation was a recent corporate action taken. We were trying to pin down where this came from. After a bit of analysis, the read was that the move was made out of weakness rather than strength. This was determined because the CEO is a bit of a character, and a boastful, boisterous cheerleader. It was concluded that his reasoning for action had to be to fill a need that was expected to be filled elsewhere, but didn't materialize. How did we know? Because if it had, he would have announced it a few minutes later....

Same sort of deducing can be used here. I dont doubt all of the ground work details, and I sympathize with those effected, but am of the belief that what we are hearing about and its impacts on us here in the US of A, are entirely blown out of proportion and unwarranted. Yes, China may play games with their news outlets and censor people. But here? Fear sells and these news outlets are propaganda peddlers and this virus is a money maker for them in regards to clicks and page views. Its is and will be drummed up as much as humanly possible. Not to be callous, but I'll be concerned when I can no longer count on one hand the number of deaths in one specific state. Or maybe collectively hear about a few dozen total deaths in America.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: cherzeca on January 31, 2020, 08:06:14 PM
I just want scientists to plot out the viruses' genome and come up with an action plan.  the notion that this might have been cooked up in a weapons lab is unsettling to me...no sweat yet, but scientists need to explain what we are facing here, not just ZH or even the WHO.  let's remember HIV was pretty bad and that was not transmitted as easily as this virus

edit:  see eg https://twitter.com/PuffDragon11/status/1223442123761975296?s=20
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: perulv on February 01, 2020, 12:04:37 AM
Even if this is contained, and the impact in other countries is limited (which might be likely, I have no reason to think I can predict this better than the official (International) numbers /experts), I would imagine the impact on a lot of businesses to be huge? Shutting down factories in china for some weeks surely must impact a lot of supply chains. I know this is obvious, but I am wondering if that is priced into the lasts days sellof, or if the impact is even bigger?

Sorry to drag this into macro(?) -prediction, and I have no numbers to back this up. Interested to hear other thoughts or facts on this, though. In a streamlined modern supply-line, I am guessing the ripple-effects could be large, and perhaps unpredictable...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: zippy1 on February 01, 2020, 02:11:22 AM
I was told that one thing that is different from the 2003 SARS outbreak is that now Chinese employers have to pay their workers wages even though the factories remain shut. 

During 2003 SARS, I was told that the workers were not paid.  This difference can create issues for the Chinese companies that have higher personnel cost component, I was told.   The change is prompted by labor law reformed enacted over the past 15 years.

Not sure whether this is true.  I am wondering whether our Chinese friends here can confirm or reject this?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: hillfronter83 on February 01, 2020, 05:55:18 AM
Bridgewater Dalio's comments:
https://www.gurufocus.com/news/1025881/ray-dalio-commentary-our-early-thinking-on-the-coronavirus-and-pandemics

This is the first big outbreak in social media era. The (mis)information on twitter is mind boggling. I saw many non medical experts (maybe with some agenda) try to stir panic in market.

The economic impact can be bigger than SARS, which lasted over a year, with many Chinese staying home, companies taking longer holidays, and travel bans. And China is a much bigger part of world economy compare to 17 years ago.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: abyli on February 01, 2020, 07:10:27 AM
I was told that one thing that is different from the 2003 SARS outbreak is that now Chinese employers have to pay their workers wages even though the factories remain shut. 

During 2003 SARS, I was told that the workers were not paid.  This difference can create issues for the Chinese companies that have higher personnel cost component, I was told.   The change is prompted by labor law reformed enacted over the past 15 years.

Not sure whether this is true.  I am wondering whether our Chinese friends here can confirm or reject this?

Yes, it is true.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: cherzeca on February 01, 2020, 07:20:17 AM
trump's Chinese tariffs were used by him as a tool to negotiate an improved trade relationship.  while he said that the Chinese bore the brunt of the tariffs, most would agree that it is the US consumer who pays the tariff...and the logistical/supply chain bearing some transaction costs in adjusting to the new trade landscape.  but interestingly, the virus will in fact impose a sizable cost on the Chinese economy in a way that US tariffs could never accomplish. I wonder whether chinese political leaders will become more amenable to improved US/Chinese trade relationship in a way that tariffs could never accomplish.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: muscleman on February 01, 2020, 09:17:49 AM
Since we have some Chinese on this forum, if you want to donate to the efforts and couldn't find way that seem reliable, Li Lu is organizing a donation effort to support cities around Wuhan that need medical equipments.

http://www.himalayacapital.com/chinese/20200130NewRelease.htm (http://www.himalayacapital.com/chinese/20200130NewRelease.htm)

There have been many previous cases in China (not referring to Li Lu's, but in general) where donations have gone missing or directly into the Party comrades' pockets.  I am sure the Chinese govt with all its might and power can come up with the required resources on its own.


I am not donating one cent. Why would I?
When the doctors are fighting so hard with self made protective gears from plastic trash bags, the Wuhan Red Cross intercepted all donations and diverted all of the N95 masks (36000 total) to an abortion clinic! At the same time, the Chinese government donated 30 Million masks to Hong Kong.  >:( The shortage of masks and other things is a complete man made disaster.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: muscleman on February 01, 2020, 09:20:04 AM
Bridgewater Dalio's comments:
https://www.gurufocus.com/news/1025881/ray-dalio-commentary-our-early-thinking-on-the-coronavirus-and-pandemics

This is the first big outbreak in social media era. The (mis)information on twitter is mind boggling. I saw many non medical experts (maybe with some agenda) try to stir panic in market.

The economic impact can be bigger than SARS, which lasted over a year, with many Chinese staying home, companies taking longer holidays, and travel bans. And China is a much bigger part of world economy compare to 17 years ago.

Oh this same guy who said "cash is trash" right at the market top last month. I'd like to hear more about his infinite wisdom.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: LongHaul on February 01, 2020, 09:48:40 AM
Excellent summary of the situation

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak

Any thoughts on how to prepare?  Far from a 0% probability that the Coronavirus comes to the US.
Face mask prices have gone way up online and supplies down in the US FYI.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gregmal on February 01, 2020, 10:08:47 AM
Excellent summary of the situation

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak

Any thoughts on how to prepare?  Far from a 0% probability that the Coronavirus comes to the US.
Face mask prices have gone way up online and supplies down in the US FYI.

This was actually a good read and probably bolstered my belief in what I wrote earlier. Lets see what the confirmed numbers look like in a week or maybe a month. But so far, you have barely 100 total cases outside of China and 0 deaths. You also have a death count that is bolstered by people with other conditions and complications, which is always important to consider as well, even with the common flu.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: muscleman on February 01, 2020, 11:14:43 AM
One of my relatives just passed away from Corona Virus.
Prior to this, he is very healthy with no known issues. His heart rate suddenly dropped to 20, and then passed away.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sleepydragon on February 01, 2020, 12:06:11 PM
I read a lot of people in Wuhan died but they are not counted as dying from the virus because they were never tested.
The government says all corona virus patients will be treated free of charge. But when the patient go to see the doctor, the doctor will only give diagnoses saying it’s inclusive infections. So nobody get treated for free.
The body burning sites at Wuhan are running in full capacity and are buring 200 bodies each day
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: LongHaul on February 01, 2020, 12:25:08 PM
Very sorry to hear this Muscleman.   My consolations to your family.
 
How old was your relative?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: muscleman on February 01, 2020, 01:20:55 PM
Very sorry to hear this Muscleman.   My consolations to your family.
 
How old was your relative?
They are in the 50s.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: RuleNumberOne on February 01, 2020, 03:00:44 PM
I am very sorry to hear that.

Very sorry to hear this Muscleman.   My consolations to your family.
 
How old was your relative?
They are in the 50s.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spekulatius on February 01, 2020, 04:15:38 PM
I am very sorry to hear that.

Very sorry to hear this Muscleman.   My consolations to your family.
 
How old was your relative?
They are in the 50s.

I am very sorry to hear that what seems only mildly uncomforting from our perspective so far, is taking lives.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Castanza on February 01, 2020, 04:39:43 PM
One of my relatives just passed away from Corona Virus.
Prior to this, he is very healthy with no known issues. His heart rate suddenly dropped to 20, and then passed away.

Really sorry to hear that! Wish the best for you and your family
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sleepydragon on February 01, 2020, 06:02:48 PM
This virus has no symptoms initially. By the time you have fever, it need to be treated very quickly. But a lot of people died because they couldn’t be admitted to the hospital.
This is a country who gave billions to Africa and boosted about their Trillion dollar GDP, yet they don’t even have enough masks at times like this?!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sleepydragon on February 01, 2020, 06:26:48 PM
For the Chinese on this board, we shall start a wechat group
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: abyli on February 01, 2020, 07:21:27 PM
For the Chinese on this board, we shall start a wechat group

Wechat ID: abyli333
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sleepydragon on February 01, 2020, 08:09:23 PM
For the Chinese on this board, we shall start a wechat group

Wechat ID: abyli333

Lol. I am also your wechat friend
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: muscleman on February 01, 2020, 09:10:25 PM
This virus has no symptoms initially. By the time you have fever, it need to be treated very quickly. But a lot of people died because they couldn’t be admitted to the hospital.
This is a country who gave billions to Africa and boosted about their Trillion dollar GDP, yet they don’t even have enough masks at times like this?!

It has masks but not for its people. Wuhan Red Cross intercepted over 36000 N95 mask donations and sent it to an abortion clinic.
China also donated 30 Million masks to Hong Kong
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SharperDingaan on February 02, 2020, 07:08:59 AM
The Shanghai market opens on monday, after being closed six business days for Chinese New Year. Since the exchange closed on Jan-23, the viral impact on China has materially worsened. Friday last week; the S&P fell 2%, and the Dow 600 points, on fears of contagion.

Wuhan is where things get made in China. Inventories were deliberately elevated going into New Year, they aren't any more; and a great many workers will still be under 'quarantine' for about another week. Universities have begun shutting down the last half of their Winter semesters, in favour of resuming over the Spring/Summer.

Container shipping time from Wuhan to the US West Coast is about 6-10 weeks  from factory gate to inland warehouse - net of rail, trans-shipping, and customs clearing. Starting in April, today's 'quarantine' impacts in Wuhan, show up in the US. Offshore 'outsourcing' is already being affected.

SD
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: rogermunibond on February 02, 2020, 09:35:54 AM
The CCP made a great show several years ago of studying gray rhinos. Seems like for something which they should have been very prepared for the party is caught off guard.  Crickets from Zhongnanhai.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Liberty on February 02, 2020, 10:34:59 AM
Good thread: https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1223996491401793536?s=21
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gregmal on February 02, 2020, 10:49:00 AM
Good thread: https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1223996491401793536?s=21

100% agree.

Its funny, everyone looses their shit if politics come up ever because "its an investing board". Here, incidentally, a situation with great investment ramifications? And everyone is indulging in fear mongering and running around like chickens with their heads cut off.

The market tanked 600 points Friday in fear of the weekend. This weekend? A whopping total of 1 new case in the US and 1 death outside of China(even though the person dying was Chinese, from Wuhan). Its crazy people still believe much of whats put out there by the media.

Personally, I'd expect futures open up a couple hundred points. But based on hysteria maybe we'll get lucky and see more of a sell off. Based on "to date" knee jerks, 1 confirmed US case and that "1 maybe" in NYC probably equates to another -500 day..
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: rogermunibond on February 02, 2020, 11:21:42 AM
Bull market in doom prophecy

But that said the economic effects in China will have ripples in OECD economies > SARS but how much bigger?

People are going to get paid, without producing ie staying at home in the worst off cities, SOEs and private biz need liquidity, state will backstop banks to provide that liquidity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: gokou3 on February 02, 2020, 11:52:56 AM
This virus has no symptoms initially. By the time you have fever, it need to be treated very quickly. But a lot of people died because they couldn’t be admitted to the hospital.
This is a country who gave billions to Africa and boosted about their Trillion dollar GDP, yet they don’t even have enough masks at times like this?!

It has masks but not for its people. Wuhan Red Cross intercepted over 36000 N95 mask donations and sent it to an abortion clinic.
China also donated 30 Million masks to Hong Kong

Any source for your mask donation to hk comment? The news I see from hk is all about people desperate for masks and lining up overnight for them.  One video shows literally thousand+ ppl lining up at a small pharmacy.  Another news shows masks made by hk prisoners ending up in guangdong province
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: cherzeca on February 02, 2020, 12:16:06 PM
initial reporting that anti-flu and anti-HIV drugs used in combination showing promise:  https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/thai-doctors-cure-coronavirus-patient-using-powerful-aids-drugs.

this is of course very early but...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: muscleman on February 02, 2020, 12:35:04 PM
https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1223639844829769734

The guy who took this video in the morning yesterday was arrested at around 7 pm in the evening. He asked the police what was wrong, and the police charged him for "Having a different voice than the government". Jeez... Are we in North Korea?

Later a ton of people online supported him, and the police was forced to release him. He rented a bike and has to bike 3 hours to get home.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Castanza on February 02, 2020, 12:36:26 PM
initial reporting that anti-flu and anti-HIV drugs used in combination showing promise:  https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/thai-doctors-cure-coronavirus-patient-using-powerful-aids-drugs.

this is of course very early but...

Didn't Zerohedge just get banned from Twitter for spreading false info about this?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: cherzeca on February 02, 2020, 12:39:43 PM
initial reporting that anti-flu and anti-HIV drugs used in combination showing promise:  https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/thai-doctors-cure-coronavirus-patient-using-powerful-aids-drugs.

this is of course very early but...

Didn't Zerohedge just get banned from Twitter for spreading false info about this?

that is the problem.  twitter is in no position to separate fact and fiction, so it (@jack) just decides on its own what is fake news and acts with its head up its ass.  ZH is way over the top in its Fed analysis, imo, but on other matters it is sometimes right.  like daily mail since it reports quickly it is sometimes wrong.

edit:  the "false" info was that after decoding, the virus shows certain genetic similarities to HIV which gave rise to speculation that it was engineered in the Wuhan bio-engineering facility as a potential bioweapon...which of course is speculation, but there is nothing fake about this, though it is speculation that I am sure the Chinese communist party doesnt like
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gregmal on February 02, 2020, 12:45:16 PM
Its not a Zerohedge report. Its in multiple places.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/cocktail-flu-hiv-drugs-appears-124753996.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: rogermunibond on February 02, 2020, 01:11:37 PM
There are a variety of treatment regimens involving antivirals and antibiotics

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30211-7/fulltext
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: gary17 on February 02, 2020, 02:19:58 PM
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-coronavirus-airlift-update-1.5449419

something tells me either the Chinese are still upset about Huawei or Justin’s team is just outright incompetent. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: LongHaul on February 02, 2020, 05:22:23 PM
 Elderberry = Sambucus nigra (Sambucol is a brand name)

Sambucus nigra extracts inhibit infectious bronchitis virus at an early point during replication
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3899428/

Infectious bronchitis virus (IBV) is a pathogenic chicken coronavirus.

Conclusions
These results demonstrate that S. nigra extract can inhibit IBV at an early point in infection, probably by rendering the virus non-infectious.

Not sure if it would work on the current Wuhan Coronavirus but you can buy 2 bottles at Costco for ~$25 FYI.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wachtwoord on February 03, 2020, 04:32:31 AM
initial reporting that anti-flu and anti-HIV drugs used in combination showing promise:  https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/thai-doctors-cure-coronavirus-patient-using-powerful-aids-drugs.

this is of course very early but...

Didn't Zerohedge just get banned from Twitter for spreading false info about this?

Twitter is a censor hell, just like Facebook. They've become too big and governments use them like they use their other news outlets: propaganda and controlling their narrative of the truth.

Luckily you can still visit websites directly: www.zerohedge.com
If that ever gets stopped (there are precedents in the western world), there's always the old trusty VPN solution.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: NewbieD on February 03, 2020, 05:03:26 AM
initial reporting that anti-flu and anti-HIV drugs used in combination showing promise:  https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/thai-doctors-cure-coronavirus-patient-using-powerful-aids-drugs.

this is of course very early but...

Didn't Zerohedge just get banned from Twitter for spreading false info about this?

Twitter is a censor hell, just like Facebook. They've become too big and governments use them like they use their other news outlets: propaganda and controlling their narrative of the truth.

Luckily you can still visit websites directly: www.zerohedge.com
If that ever gets stopped (there are precedents in the western world), there's always the old trusty VPN solution.

True, but their income is probably down a lot from these bans. Majority of people can't be bothered to VPN. And when the majority are bothered enough to do it, that too could be targeted.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Liberty on February 03, 2020, 06:13:42 AM
initial reporting that anti-flu and anti-HIV drugs used in combination showing promise:  https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/thai-doctors-cure-coronavirus-patient-using-powerful-aids-drugs.

this is of course very early but...

Didn't Zerohedge just get banned from Twitter for spreading false info about this?

Twitter is a censor hell, just like Facebook. They've become too big and governments use them like they use their other news outlets: propaganda and controlling their narrative of the truth.

Luckily you can still visit websites directly: www.zerohedge.com
If that ever gets stopped (there are precedents in the western world), there's always the old trusty VPN solution.

Zerohedge is a Russian propaganda tool, as pointed out by people who used to write there: http://www.propornot.com/2016/10/zero-hedge.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: rogermunibond on February 03, 2020, 06:48:39 AM
Liberty +1

ZH is not the hill to die on w/r/t censorship or even Twitter censorship

These battles were all litigated once before when urbanization/industrialization supercharged the printing press.  See William Randolph Hearst.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Liberty on February 03, 2020, 07:11:06 AM
Liberty +1

ZH is not the hill to die on w/r/t censorship or even Twitter censorship

These battles were all litigated once before when urbanization/industrialization supercharged the printing press.  See William Randolph Hearst.

If they had been banned because Twitter disagreed with their views, that would suck.

But they've been banned because they went against the terms of service by doxxing a Chinese scientist and telling their millions of readers to "go talk to them" giving their phone number and address and implying that they created a bioweapon without any proof. That kind of mob-lynching tactic is pretty hard to defend.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: rogermunibond on February 03, 2020, 07:16:12 AM
Lying, conflict, outrage, conspiracy, paranoia draw engagement from those attracted to it and from those attempting to dispute it.

The best solution is shunning.  Inattention/disregard is the best sanitizer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Liberty on February 03, 2020, 07:48:45 AM
Lying, conflict, outrage, conspiracy, paranoia draw engagement from those attracted to it and from those attempting to dispute it.

The best solution is shunning.  Inattention/disregard is the best sanitizer.

Once you understand the ZH is part of Russian's psyops arm, it makes a lot more sense. One way to weaken western democracies is to fan the flames of mistrust for their institutions, governments, financial systems, etc. (all that can be healthy to one level, but can be healthy when taken to the tin foil hat level and mixed in with fake news and cherry-picked data) It fits with their documented programs on facebook and elsewhere where they tried to create conflict by supporting radical groups on both the right and left. It's not about ideology so much as about creating division and chaos and weakening social cohesion and creating so much mental pollution that people can't tell what's true or not anymore (Gary Kasparov is quite good at explaining how the KGB and its descendents do this).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: stahleyp on February 03, 2020, 08:16:47 AM
I wonder if CNN is also funded by Russians. They are certainly divisive. ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Liberty on February 03, 2020, 09:00:16 AM
I wonder if CNN is also funded by Russians. They are certainly divisive. ;)

A duck has wings.

Hey, this animal has wings, so it must be a duck.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: muscleman on February 03, 2020, 11:07:29 AM
We need to stop talking about corona virus here. The Chinese Supreme Court just announced that spreading rumors regarding this virus may result in death penalty.
https://new.qq.com/omn/20200203/20200203A0A52W00.html

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 03, 2020, 11:26:49 AM
We need to stop talking about corona virus here. The Chinese Supreme Court just announced that spreading rumors regarding this virus may result in death penalty.
https://new.qq.com/omn/20200203/20200203A0A52W00.html

This article instead makes the claim that the Chinese Supreme Court believes that  rumors are good because they encourage people to wear their masks and take other precautions:

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/01/30/asia-pacific/science-health-asia-pacific/chinas-top-court-rebukes-police-virus-rumor-crackdown/#.XjhzWCSIYlQ
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wachtwoord on February 03, 2020, 11:39:40 AM
We need to stop talking about corona virus here. The Chinese Supreme Court just announced that spreading rumors regarding this virus may result in death penalty.
https://new.qq.com/omn/20200203/20200203A0A52W00.html

Do you have Chinese nationality? Any way to get rid of it? :/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: muscleman on February 03, 2020, 12:09:05 PM
We need to stop talking about corona virus here. The Chinese Supreme Court just announced that spreading rumors regarding this virus may result in death penalty.
https://new.qq.com/omn/20200203/20200203A0A52W00.html

This article instead makes the claim that the Chinese Supreme Court believes that  rumors are good because they encourage people to wear their masks and take other precautions:

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/01/30/asia-pacific/science-health-asia-pacific/chinas-top-court-rebukes-police-virus-rumor-crackdown/#.XjhzWCSIYlQ

You have to look at the date of the news.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jasonchin on February 03, 2020, 07:46:22 PM
Some positive news!

https://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/health/thailand-sees-apparent-success-treating-coronavirus-with-drug-cocktail-1.4794001?fbclid=IwAR2UZXwps5fcGaWAsSVSlw1mKjsFXyu_BBBYm-Gr_jHt_y_jjVF32p4Y9wY
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: stahleyp on February 04, 2020, 04:05:04 AM
I wonder if CNN is also funded by Russians. They are certainly divisive. ;)

A duck has wings.

Hey, this animal has wings, so it must be a duck.

I didn't actually mean that I thought CNN was really funded by Russians (hence the face).

I do mean that CNN is very divisive though. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Liberty on February 04, 2020, 06:41:05 AM
I do mean that CNN is very divisive though.

I never can tell with you.

Yeah, US politics is very dysfunctional right now, which makes for dysfunctional media, and vice versa (both things feed on each other).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: stahleyp on February 04, 2020, 06:45:18 AM
I do mean that CNN is very divisive though.

I never can tell with you.

Yeah, US politics is very dysfunctional right now, which makes for dysfunctional media, and vice versa (both things feed on each other).

haha no worries. I agree. The crazies are gaining steam on both sides.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: gary17 on February 04, 2020, 09:03:44 AM
i have a hard time understanding why the market did the 600 pt drop Friday and now with even more cases, the market seems to have completely forgotten about the virus...
major news outlets are now focused on Iowa... virus is not front page anymore   
  very emotional market!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gregmal on February 04, 2020, 08:11:19 PM
i have a hard time understanding why the market did the 600 pt drop Friday and now with even more cases, the market seems to have completely forgotten about the virus...
major news outlets are now focused on Iowa... virus is not front page anymore   
  very emotional market!

It was actually a very easy judgment call with the market, I am just surprised the masses caught on as soon as they did and aw shucks wouldn't you know it we're back at the highs. But regarding the virus, it was really simple. The virus is more or less contained to China. China will suppress any major issue. The only way this gets out badly, is if there is some really, really, really bad uncontrollable Resident Evil style situation. Super unlikely. And with that contained and nothing of news or material purpose going on anywhere else in the world; back up we go! It was rather predictable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: cherzeca on February 04, 2020, 08:46:07 PM
there are not many felicitous benefits of a police state, but one must surely be to make sure that hundreds of millions of citizens self quarantine...or else
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BG2008 on February 04, 2020, 09:06:19 PM
there are not many felicitous benefits of a police state, but one must surely be to make sure that hundreds of millions of citizens self quarantine...or else

Somewhat unrelated, one of the benefits of having a surveillance state is that criminals are more hesitant to commit crime.  When I went back a couple years ago, people mentioned that robberies and theft have gone down quite a bit since they installed cameras everywhere.  Of course, the US news sources will only report the emergence of a police state and not the fact that most everyday citizens enjoy the fact that they can catch child abductors and robbers rather quickly.  Not that I would want to live there, but there is a some benefits to having a police state. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Cigarbutt on February 05, 2020, 04:54:22 AM
there are not many felicitous benefits of a police state, but one must surely be to make sure that hundreds of millions of citizens self quarantine...or else
Somewhat unrelated, one of the benefits of having a surveillance state is that criminals are more hesitant to commit crime.  When I went back a couple years ago, people mentioned that robberies and theft have gone down quite a bit since they installed cameras everywhere.  Of course, the US news sources will only report the emergence of a police state and not the fact that most everyday citizens enjoy the fact that they can catch child abductors and robbers rather quickly.  Not that I would want to live there, but there is a some benefits to having a police state.
Occasional incursion into the political meanders:
Because of the apparent lack of concern related to unbound authority and the chilling caution that transpires from previous experiments.

In my area, building a new hospital would take 20 to 25 years, with a good "business" case, which is highly inefficient and unacceptable. In China, there are social ingredients that allow building a hospital within a few days. This is both extraordinary for extraordinary circumstances and terribly unsettling for long term prosperity and the right to happiness.

The German people were grateful to Hitler for what they saw as His economic recovery. If interested, read about Hjalmar Schacht to observe what happens when subordinates lose control of the narrative.

----)Back to the general discussion that has gone viral.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wachtwoord on February 05, 2020, 05:43:43 AM
there are not many felicitous benefits of a police state, but one must surely be to make sure that hundreds of millions of citizens self quarantine...or else

Somewhat unrelated, one of the benefits of having a surveillance state is that criminals are more hesitant to commit crime.  When I went back a couple years ago, people mentioned that robberies and theft have gone down quite a bit since they installed cameras everywhere.  Of course, the US news sources will only report the emergence of a police state and not the fact that most everyday citizens enjoy the fact that they can catch child abductors and robbers rather quickly.  Not that I would want to live there, but there is a some benefits to having a police state.

Crime by non-state aligned actors may go down. That doesn't compensate for the uptake in state-aligned crime however (which can no longer officially may be called crime).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gregmal on February 08, 2020, 09:43:41 AM
Excellent summary of the situation

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak

Any thoughts on how to prepare?  Far from a 0% probability that the Coronavirus comes to the US.
Face mask prices have gone way up online and supplies down in the US FYI.

This was actually a good read and probably bolstered my belief in what I wrote earlier. Lets see what the confirmed numbers look like in a week or maybe a month. But so far, you have barely 100 total cases outside of China and 0 deaths. You also have a death count that is bolstered by people with other conditions and complications, which is always important to consider as well, even with the common flu.

A week later, maybe some 300 total non China(although like 90% of regions close to China), and just 1 outside death(in Hong Kong).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: gary17 on February 08, 2020, 11:38:22 AM
we all know how compounding works...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wisowis on February 08, 2020, 04:50:39 PM
Excellent summary of the situation

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak

Any thoughts on how to prepare?  Far from a 0% probability that the Coronavirus comes to the US.
Face mask prices have gone way up online and supplies down in the US FYI.

This was actually a good read and probably bolstered my belief in what I wrote earlier. Lets see what the confirmed numbers look like in a week or maybe a month. But so far, you have barely 100 total cases outside of China and 0 deaths. You also have a death count that is bolstered by people with other conditions and complications, which is always important to consider as well, even with the common flu.

A week later, maybe some 300 total non China(although like 90% of regions close to China), and just 1 outside death(in Hong Kong).

Vulnerable people are not the most likely to be traveling. As WHO said yesterday of the cases they've studied in China, "82 percent had mild infections, 15 percent had severe symptoms and 3 percent were classified as critical".

For reference, influenza has a fatality rate of 0.1% and a lower transmission rate than nCoV.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: muscleman on February 08, 2020, 05:46:55 PM
Why do you guys keep talking about the fake death numbers by the Chinese government? If it is true, they'll have no problem accepting the generous offer to help by the US medical team. The government declined the help from foreigners because it does not want them to see the reality.
All funeral homes are running 24/7 in Wuhan and still could not finish processing the dead bodies.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sleepydragon on February 08, 2020, 06:44:51 PM
Why do you guys keep talking about the fake death numbers by the Chinese government? If it is true, they'll have no problem accepting the generous offer to help by the US medical team. The government declined the help from foreigners because it does not want them to see the reality.
All funeral homes are running 24/7 in Wuhan and still could not finish processing the dead bodies.

There is currently a huge smog in Wuhan. But there is no factories open nor people on the street. It is said the smog is from burning bodies
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: mcliu on February 08, 2020, 07:25:42 PM
Cause we naive westerners?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: muscleman on February 08, 2020, 07:27:06 PM
Why do you guys keep talking about the fake death numbers by the Chinese government? If it is true, they'll have no problem accepting the generous offer to help by the US medical team. The government declined the help from foreigners because it does not want them to see the reality.
All funeral homes are running 24/7 in Wuhan and still could not finish processing the dead bodies.

There is currently a huge smog in Wuhan. But there is no factories open nor people on the street. It is said the smog is from burning bodies

Really? Can burning body cause so much smog? I heard there are only 3-4 funeral facilities.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: zippy1 on February 08, 2020, 10:59:25 PM
Quote
Really? Can burning body cause so much smog? I heard there are only 3-4 funeral facilities.
my understanding is that there are 7 plus another one for muslims.
http://mzj.wuhan.gov.cn/bmcx/166448.jhtml
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: muscleman on February 09, 2020, 06:45:04 AM
Quote
Really? Can burning body cause so much smog? I heard there are only 3-4 funeral facilities.
my understanding is that there are 7 plus another one for muslims.
http://mzj.wuhan.gov.cn/bmcx/166448.jhtml
I did some research and I think the average daily death is around 500. It is based on the INCREASE of death from regular periods and based on a call I listened to on YouTube from a journalist to the funeral. Note that most of these body burning facilities have small capacity so you can’t take one number and multiply by 8.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SharperDingaan on February 09, 2020, 09:12:27 AM
China is just trying to put its best face forward. 
But like lipstick on a pig - it looks way better from far away, than it does up close.

Comes Monday the quarantine period is supposedly up for the 33M+ quarantined over Luna New Year.
Yet ...  https://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCAKBN2020SN

"China’s cabinet said on Sunday it would coordinate with transport authorities to ensure the smooth return to work of employees in key industries such as food and medicines. The State Council’s special coronavirus group also said workers should return in “batches”, rather than all at once, in order to reduce infection risks."

"Authorities had told businesses to tack up to 10 extra days on to holidays that had been due to finish at the end of January and some restrictions continued. We all know we can’t purchase masks anywhere, why are we still going back to work?” said a second.

"Hebei province, which surrounds Beijing, will keep schools shut until March 1, the People’s Daily newspaper said. Several provinces have shut schools until the end of February." Universities are doing something similar.

To most people, it would appear that the mass quarantine is being extended until the end of february. The short supply of masks also very likely being rationed to just those returning batches of workers in food and medicines (or essential services), as added incentive to return to work. Most would also recognize that these are essentially war-time measures, and that they would not have been implemented were the fallout not serious.

To China's credit it is a one-party state, and the party has acted both rapidly, effectively, and forcefully.
This level of intervention, and message control, could not have been executed as rapidly in a Western democracy. Ultimately, the final body count may well be a lot lower than it otherwise might have been, because the epi-center was in China. Credit, where it is due.

SD


Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sleepydragon on February 09, 2020, 02:39:40 PM
https://twitter.com/inteldotwav/status/1226267582740811777?s=21
m
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Tuxedostyle on February 10, 2020, 09:38:54 AM
Very interesting...

https://twitter.com/InvestSpecial/status/1226920634040692736
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: lnofeisone on February 10, 2020, 10:58:59 AM
Very interesting...

https://twitter.com/InvestSpecial/status/1226920634040692736

Maybe I'm missing something.
1) Someone showed off their 9th grade skill at using Excel and getting a best fit line
2) Reddit peanut gallery is now cheering on every day that the model gets the number approximately correct

If this were a legitimate model I'd expect a lot more metrics (root mean square and mean absolute errors at a minimum), time dependency, cure rate, etc. I can also guarantee that the model shown and the equation are wrong.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Liberty on February 11, 2020, 07:13:09 AM
https://ofdollarsanddata.com/how-will-coronavirus-affect-your-portfolio/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: LongHaul on February 12, 2020, 09:38:28 AM
Guy Claims death toll over 50k in China
https://www.ccn.com/billionaire-whistleblower-wuhan-coronavirus-death-toll-is-over-50000/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: LongHaul on February 12, 2020, 09:58:29 AM
Great article that claims China is lying

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871783

Assuming the current Crematoriums burned 60,000 bodies year in Wuhan which is ~1,150 per week then an additional
120 or so per week would not be such a big deal - An extra 10% burning.  High probability that the Chinese government is totally full of shit.

i like this article for data
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: zippy1 on February 13, 2020, 02:09:25 PM
China’s Coronavirus Numbers Don’t Add Up. Here’s How We Know.
Quote
Anomalies had shown up in China’s coronavirus numbers even before the change in methodology. For instance, the number of deaths reported appeared to correspond to a simple mathematical formula to a very high accuracy, according to a quantitative-finance specialist who ran a regression of the data for Barron’s. A near-perfect 99.99% of variance is explained by the equation, this person said, referring to a statistical measure known as r-squared. That’s a fancy way of saying that the data updating the number of deaths was almost perfectly predictable. “This never happens with real data, which is always noisy,” the person said.
Quote
Barron’s re-created the regression analysis of total deaths caused by the virus, which first emerged in the central Chinese city of Wuhan at the end of last year, and found the same variance. We ran it by Melody Goodman, associate professor of biostatistics at New York University’s School of Global Public Health.

“I have never in my years seen an r-squared of 0.99,” Goodman said. “As a statistician it makes me question the data.”

For context, Goodman said a “really good” r-squared, in terms of public health data, would be a 0.7. “Anything like 0.99,” she said “would make me think that someone is simulating data. It would mean you already know what is going to happen.”
https://www.barrons.com/articles/chinas-economic-data-have-always-raised-questions-its-coronavirus-numbers-do-too-51581622840
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: abyli on February 14, 2020, 05:48:34 AM
We all know it is fake number, remember, it is China!

China’s Coronavirus Numbers Don’t Add Up. Here’s How We Know.
Quote
Anomalies had shown up in China’s coronavirus numbers even before the change in methodology. For instance, the number of deaths reported appeared to correspond to a simple mathematical formula to a very high accuracy, according to a quantitative-finance specialist who ran a regression of the data for Barron’s. A near-perfect 99.99% of variance is explained by the equation, this person said, referring to a statistical measure known as r-squared. That’s a fancy way of saying that the data updating the number of deaths was almost perfectly predictable. “This never happens with real data, which is always noisy,” the person said.
Quote
Barron’s re-created the regression analysis of total deaths caused by the virus, which first emerged in the central Chinese city of Wuhan at the end of last year, and found the same variance. We ran it by Melody Goodman, associate professor of biostatistics at New York University’s School of Global Public Health.

“I have never in my years seen an r-squared of 0.99,” Goodman said. “As a statistician it makes me question the data.”

For context, Goodman said a “really good” r-squared, in terms of public health data, would be a 0.7. “Anything like 0.99,” she said “would make me think that someone is simulating data. It would mean you already know what is going to happen.”
https://www.barrons.com/articles/chinas-economic-data-have-always-raised-questions-its-coronavirus-numbers-do-too-51581622840
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aberhound on February 17, 2020, 06:06:31 PM
Oh great. Now Jon Rappaport looks at the tests for the so-called coronavirus and finds them problematic.

"Reading through CDC literature, I believe the two most prevalent US testing methods are: antibody, and PCR.

Antibody tests are notorious for cross-reactions.  This means factors in no way relevant to a given virus can make the test read positive.  In that case, the patient would be falsely told he "has the coronavirus."  But it gets worse.  Traditionally, antibody tests reading positive were taken as a good sign for the patient: his immune system had contacted a germ and defeated it.  Then, starting in 1984, the science was turned upside down: a positive test was, astoundingly, taken to mean the patient was ill or would soon become ill.

The PCR test (which requires excellent technicians who will not make any number of possible mistakes) takes a tissue sample from a patient which might contain a tiny virus particle(s) much too small to be observed---and blows it up many times, so it can be seen.  However, the test says nothing reliable about HOW MUCH virus is in the patient's body.  Why is that important?  Because millions and millions of replicating virus in the body are necessary to even begin talking about actual illness.  A positive PCR test, nevertheless, will be taken to mean the patient "has the epidemic disease."  ---An even deeper issue: where is the PRIOR PROOF that the PCR is testing for a virus that actually causes disease?"
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Cigarbutt on February 18, 2020, 04:58:56 PM
The antibody tests (immune system reaction to the foreign entity) and antigen tests (that recognize a piece of identity of the virus) are complementary to assessment of symptoms and signs manifestation as well as relevant exposure. The tests work the same way conceptually as when one forms an opinion about a specific investment opportunity: you start with a conditional probability that gets refined with further data points or "tests" (quarterly reports, company announcement, industry development etc.). The inherent uncertainty of the process is fertile ground for various conspiracy theories and fake news that can, at times, reach epidemic proportions. Open mind required but that does not preclude sensible discarding of wacky hypotheses.

Interestingly, the focus now on the Coronavirus has removed the spotlight from a significant issue that people have gotten used to over time: influenza.
https://www.realclearscience.com/articles/2020/02/15/this_flu_season_was_already_weird_it_is_getting_weirder_111294.html
"So far this season, there have been an estimated 26 million illnesses, 250,000 hospitalizations and 14,000 deaths from flu, according to the CDC."

There is nothing wrong with alternative views per se but I find it concerning that vaccination rates could be improved, including and especially for the sub-groups most at risk. Influenza vaccines are only a partially effective solution but, statistically and rationally speaking, remain the most convincing way (evidence-based) to stay alive, especially if you have specific risk factors.

It is also interesting to note that the effectiveness of vaccinations would be severely impaired if a critical mass of people start to consider these prevention tools as nefarious.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jurgis on February 25, 2020, 10:11:54 AM
OK, I'm gonna go full kook on this and dial it to 11:

Coronovirus is definitely CIA weapon to destroy China, Iran, and Italy (for not leaving EU!).

I also know what happens next, but probably I should leave that for the black swamp aka Politics section.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: netnet on February 25, 2020, 11:45:13 AM
OK, I'm gonna go full kook on this and dial it to 11:

Coronovirus is definitely CIA weapon to destroy China, Iran, and Italy (for not leaving EU!).

I also know what happens next, but probably I should leave that for the black swamp aka Politics section.
;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: netnet on February 25, 2020, 11:46:48 AM
I'm curious.

Did anyone happen to see what happened in small PE deals during SARS or MERS?  i.e. were there dips in pricing?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BG2008 on February 25, 2020, 11:51:19 AM
I'm curious.

Did anyone happen to see what happened in small PE deals during SARS or MERS?  i.e. were there dips in pricing?

I think you have to stop comparing Corona Virus to SARS.  The world was not as integrated and China was not as large % of the world's GDP back then.  Just saying. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: PatOfThePig on February 25, 2020, 12:04:05 PM
In french, a treatment?

https://www.lapresse.ca/international/asie-et-oceanie/202002/25/01-5262337-coronavirus-un-traitement-courant-contre-la-malaria-semble-efficace.php
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: cherzeca on February 25, 2020, 12:07:16 PM
people rightfully point out that comparisons of corona to prior viral events do not hold because the world is more connected etc (glass half empty), but by the same token, genome sequencing and vaccine development has made huge leaps and bounds (glass half full). 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: StubbleJumper on February 25, 2020, 12:57:25 PM
In french, a treatment?

https://www.lapresse.ca/international/asie-et-oceanie/202002/25/01-5262337-coronavirus-un-traitement-courant-contre-la-malaria-semble-efficace.php


Should we begin to drink gin and tonic simply as a prophylactic measure?  I'm willing to try...


SJ
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Viking on February 25, 2020, 02:04:19 PM
The CDC warned Tuesday that the novel coronavirus will spread in the U.S. An official with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Tuesday that COVID-19, the new coronavirus that has sickened nearly 100,000 people worldwide, will eventually spread within the U.S.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see community spread within this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, the director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if this will happen anymore, but rather more a question of exactly when this will happen, and exactly how many people within this country will have severe illness.”

Source: Barrons

Bond yields have been tanking since the start of the outbreak. Yes, stocks have had two bad days. But are stock investors not way too optimistic about the potential impacts of this virus on the US economy? Is this a ‘buy the dip’ moment or will we see much lower stock prices in the near future?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BG2008 on February 25, 2020, 02:28:14 PM
people rightfully point out that comparisons of corona to prior viral events do not hold because the world is more connected etc (glass half empty), but by the same token, genome sequencing and vaccine development has made huge leaps and bounds (glass half full).

Genome sequencing and vaccine development is better.  I actually don't know how much.  But the appropriate reaction to this virus is to quarantine 60mm ppl in China.  Think about it for a moment.  Regardless of the advancement in genome sequencing etc, if you shut down 60mm people, the economy screeches to a halt.   And it trickles back to the US and the rest of the world. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jurgis on February 25, 2020, 02:47:44 PM
Bond yields have been tanking since the start of the outbreak. Yes, stocks have had two bad days. But are stock investors not way too optimistic about the potential impacts of this virus on the US economy? Is this a ‘buy the dip’ moment or will we see much lower stock prices in the near future?

If we knew, we'd be rich. (C) Warren Buffett.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Viking on February 25, 2020, 03:24:26 PM
Bond yields have been tanking since the start of the outbreak. Yes, stocks have had two bad days. But are stock investors not way too optimistic about the potential impacts of this virus on the US economy? Is this a ‘buy the dip’ moment or will we see much lower stock prices in the near future?

If we knew, we'd be rich. (C) Warren Buffett.

Jurgis, I think Buffett’s answer (do not try and time the market) is overly simplistic and not actionable for most investors. When we are in the midst of a bear market emotions get the best of most investors.

I am simply trying to assess what the probabilities are that this out break starts to spread in the US to the point that it impacts the economy in a meaningful way. Two weeks ago my read was that the virus was not going to impact the US economy very much. Over the past 4 days my view has started to shift and it now appears the question is when the virus breaks out in the US (not if) and how bad it gets. Hopefully this thing just blows over. The next could of weeks are going to be very very interesting :-)

Here in Canada we are being told to make preparations: stock up on prescriptions and perishable food.
Canadians being told to prepare for a possible novel coronavirus pandemic
- https://vancouversun.com/diseases-and-conditions/coronavirus/canadians-being-told-to-prepare-for-a-possible-novel-coronavirus-pandemic/wcm/f93197f0-8c56-4050-a50c-4de1f031c659

“Etches said people can take steps now, at home and at work, to prepare. Some of those steps include stocking up on needed prescriptions ahead of time so there is no need to do so during a possible pandemic. She also recommended people stock up on non-perishable food.”

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spekulatius on February 25, 2020, 04:38:39 PM
I think we will see an avalanche of earnings warnings this quarter and next resulting from fallout from the corona virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Liberty on February 25, 2020, 04:40:29 PM
I think we will see an avalanche of earnings warnings this quarter and next resulting from fallout from the corona virus.

Definitely. And next year Q1 and Q2's earnings will look amazing in comparison...

Market right now seems to be expecting these warnings, so we'll see what their magnitude is and how the market reacts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: omagh on February 25, 2020, 04:42:44 PM
Bond yields have been tanking since the start of the outbreak. Yes, stocks have had two bad days. But are stock investors not way too optimistic about the potential impacts of this virus on the US economy? Is this a ‘buy the dip’ moment or will we see much lower stock prices in the near future?

If we knew, we'd be rich. (C) Warren Buffett.

Jurgis, I think Buffett’s answer (do not try and time the market) is overly simplistic and not actionable for most investors. When we are in the midst of a bear market emotions get the best of most investors.

I am simply trying to assess what the probabilities are that this out break starts to spread in the US to the point that it impacts the economy in a meaningful way. Two weeks ago my read was that the virus was not going to impact the US economy very much. Over the past 4 days my view has started to shift and it now appears the question is when the virus breaks out in the US (not if) and how bad it gets. Hopefully this thing just blows over. The next could of weeks are going to be very very interesting :-)

Here in Canada we are being told to make preparations: stock up on prescriptions and perishable food.
Canadians being told to prepare for a possible novel coronavirus pandemic
- https://vancouversun.com/diseases-and-conditions/coronavirus/canadians-being-told-to-prepare-for-a-possible-novel-coronavirus-pandemic/wcm/f93197f0-8c56-4050-a50c-4de1f031c659

“Etches said people can take steps now, at home and at work, to prepare. Some of those steps include stocking up on needed prescriptions ahead of time so there is no need to do so during a possible pandemic. She also recommended people stock up on non-perishable food.”

So, looking at the data and the big picture, the pace of increase of new infections has declined.  It's a novel flu, but the profile of people that are dying from the flu is traditional.  It's a headline driven phenomenon with journalists amping and hyping the story.  National health authorities put out warnings several times a year on various infectious diseases, but the public largely ignores these.  This virus just has captured the public's imagination and it's become a plaything of salacious interests.

As an investor, that's useful information.  How are long-term business models being impacted?  A quarter of earnings misses could very well happen, but I am looking for discounts on valuable businesses.
(https://i.imgur.com/2ujGu8U.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gregmal on February 25, 2020, 04:44:00 PM
I think we will see an avalanche of earnings warnings this quarter and next resulting from fallout from the corona virus.

I can at the least, guarantee you we will see a lot of companies "blaming" it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: spartansaver on February 25, 2020, 05:08:03 PM
Omagh, you say the pace is slowing (perhaps it is in China, but it's hard to trust their figures), yet the chart you are using is logarithmic and looks like it continues to rise at a pretty constant rate outside of China. I've been wondering how you end these quarantines... If China ends Wuhan quarantines and cases spike again, will they go back to a quarantine?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: LC on February 25, 2020, 05:13:41 PM
https://www.wsj.com/articles/cdc-warns-it-expects-coronavirus-to-spread-in-u-s-11582653829?mod=hp_lead_pos2

Quote
CDC Warns It Expects Coronavirus to Spread in U.S.

Federal health authorities said Tuesday they now expect a wider spread of the coronavirus in the U.S. and are preparing for a potential pandemic, though they remain unsure about how severe the health threat could be.

Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said Tuesday the agency expects a sustained transmission of the virus and called for businesses, schools and communities to brace themselves and plan for potential outbreaks.

Given the 3-4 week incubation period it is probably already here in the US.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Viking on February 25, 2020, 06:01:35 PM
I think we will see an avalanche of earnings warnings this quarter and next resulting from fallout from the corona virus.

Definitely. And next year Q1 and Q2's earnings will look amazing in comparison...

Market right now seems to be expecting these warnings, so we'll see what their magnitude is and how the market reacts.

Liberty, pre-virus we had what looked to be close to a mild global manufacturing recession in 2H 2019. Germany and Japanese economies are not doing well. Europe looks weak. The watchout is if the virus causes consumer confidence to fall, particularly in the US (as they are driving the global engine at the moment). If the virus leads to a mild recession earnings in 2H 2020 then earnings next year might not look so good.

I am not saying this is my base case. But the bond market is no longer flashing yellow they are on full stop red. And up until 2 days ago the stock market was at all time highs. Someone has it wrong (bond market or stock market).

Should the virus outbreak get worse (spread to the US) my guess is the Fed will respond with anemergency cut. So even if things get worse stocks may do well :-)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Viking on February 25, 2020, 06:13:12 PM
Omagh, you say the pace is slowing (perhaps it is in China, but it's hard to trust their figures), yet the chart you are using is logarithmic and looks like it continues to rise at a pretty constant rate outside of China. I've been wondering how you end these quarantines... If China ends Wuhan quarantines and cases spike again, will they go back to a quarantine?

It looks to me like most countries are having a hard time accurately testing and reporting on the virus. That does not mean it is not growing in size. It simply means we do not know. Lets hope we do not get more surprises like Italy or Iran. A few more like these and the cat is likely out of the bag.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spekulatius on February 25, 2020, 06:20:04 PM
I think we will see an avalanche of earnings warnings this quarter and next resulting from fallout from the corona virus.

Definitely. And next year Q1 and Q2's earnings will look amazing in comparison...

Market right now seems to be expecting these warnings, so we'll see what their magnitude is and how the market reacts.

Liberty, pre-virus we had what looked to be close to a mild global manufacturing recession in 2H 2019. Germany and Japanese economies are not doing well. Europe looks weak. The watchout is if the virus causes consumer confidence to fall, particularly in the US (as they are driving the global engine at the moment). If the virus leads to a mild recession earnings in 2H 2020 then earnings next year might not look so good.

I am not saying this is my base case. But the bond market is no longer flashing yellow they are on full stop red. And up until 2 days ago the stock market was at all time highs. Someone has it wrong (bond market or stock market).

Should the virus outbreak get worse (spread to the US) my guess is the Fed will respond with anemergency cut. So even if things get worse stocks may do well :-)

I think the risk to the economy are real unfortunately. I hear already salespeople’s postponing travel and China will definitely take a hit and companies operating there as well. Germany is Slow too and has zero growth basically and travel in France is down 30-40%.

It would be one thing, if the stock market were down like it was in late 2018, but so far, we have a mini reaction and are up 30%+ from these levels or down just 5% from the peak. On the other hand, some sectors and stocks really have become cheap now. Take your pick. I had some QQQ puts, which I sold of a bit too early this AM. I am going to reload, if the volatility comes down and SPY or QQQ puts are priced reasonable again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Hjorth on February 26, 2020, 12:47:24 AM
I agree with Viking and Spekulatius,

This is getting really bad and concerning.

The best source I've found to look at data instead of reading headlines and other stuff all over the place is :

Covid 2019 tracker (https://vac-lshtm.shinyapps.io/ncov_tracker/).

On the "About this site" tab (https://vac-lshtm.shinyapps.io/ncov_tracker/) is specifically mentioned the data basis [For everyone to make up their own mind about the reliability of the data basis].
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: elliott on February 26, 2020, 01:43:49 AM
despite the drops of the last few days, I still find it difficult to find companies with wide moats and healthy balance sheets at cheap prices.


Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: DTEJD1997 on February 26, 2020, 06:06:52 AM
Hey all:

San Francisco has declared a "state of emergency" over the Corona virus.  Please see:

www.businessinsider.com/san-francisco-state-of-emergency-coronavirus-covid19-outbreak-2020-2#the-outbreak-which-began-in-china-has-since-spread-in-asia-the-middle-east-and-europe-3

Kind of odd, as there are NO known Corona virus cases in the city.

Also kind of odd, as this is coming from a city that can't all the human feces off it's streets.  This is also from the city that has smartphone apps showing where all the piles of sh!t are.

I am just wondering...if a city can't keep people from busting dumps everywhere, how in the world is it going to deal with Corona virus?  An app maybe?  Just think, they could combine the feces map with the Corona virus app. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: netnet on February 26, 2020, 10:45:55 AM
Hey all:

San Francisco has declared a "state of emergency" over the Corona virus.  Please see:

www.businessinsider.com/san-francisco-state-of-emergency-coronavirus-covid19-outbreak-2020-2#the-outbreak-which-began-in-china-has-since-spread-in-asia-the-middle-east-and-europe-3

Kind of odd, as there are NO known Corona virus cases in the city.

Also kind of odd, as this is coming from a city that can't all the human feces off it's streets.  This is also from the city that has smartphone apps showing where all the piles of sh!t are.

I am just wondering...if a city can't keep people from busting dumps everywhere, how in the world is it going to deal with Corona virus?  An app maybe?  Just think, they could combine the feces map with the Corona virus app.

there is evidence that COVID-19 is present in fecal matter AND even maybe in aerosols associated with fecal matter--read farts and poorly vented sewage systems (possible vector on cruise ships BTW.)


Also, I'm a bit concerned about Berkshire's  Annual Meeting: Munger and Buffett are the prime age group for fatal infections, just saying
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Liberty on February 26, 2020, 06:06:13 PM
Thread: https://twitter.com/mackayim/status/1232803777289146368?s=21

https://virologydownunder.com/so-you-think-youve-about-to-be-in-a-pandemic/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jobyts on February 26, 2020, 06:13:14 PM
Chinese woman describes Wuhan virus patients being burned alive

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3881683
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gregmal on February 26, 2020, 06:20:55 PM
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3881683

We dont have that kind of dedication here, which is why it will be much worse in the US. The Chinese will just throw motherfuckers in the pits on the basis of national security and voila, 2 months later their already past peak and opening shops and factories back up, business as usual.

Trump is too weak and not taking this seriously and as a result, this will likely linger much longer here. We may even start getting CNBC Markets In Turmoil specials again. We might even have to elect a Democrat since apparently they have the answer to this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sleepydragon on February 26, 2020, 06:35:35 PM
Chinese woman describes Wuhan virus patients being burned alive

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3881683

Oh my god
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Cardboard on February 26, 2020, 06:57:26 PM
Just listened to Mr. Trump's press conference and this is totally under control: 15 people for God sake in the whole USA!!!

Then how long to get a vaccine in this day and age? I have read that test on humans begin in 6 weeks and I would think that the Chinese will start right now if any of this above is even remotely true.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gregmal on February 26, 2020, 07:04:12 PM
The thing to be careful for here is that the media loves hysteria because it sells. They also hate Trump and realize that one of the only threats to Trump is killing the economy. Thus, a perfect storm of events that have a high likelihood of being dramatically portrayed and incredibly blown out of proportion. This is basically the flu. With the current ratio of 100 Dow points for every 2 new cases, the markets will be at 0 in no time. Just wait a few weeks and then everyone here can pull straws. We can have a fantasy football type draft on who gets to make $1 per share offers to buyout our favorite companies! I call dibs on Disney.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Cardboard on February 26, 2020, 07:16:45 PM
Like I mentioned in a different thread, this would be the perfect weapon for Russia to get rid of pain in the ass Trump and replace with a so much more profitable candidate such as Bernie.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Castanza on February 26, 2020, 07:39:04 PM
I believe someone pointed it out earlier in the thread. But Taiwan and China are pretty bitter enemies. It’s hard to find news coming from Taiwan about China credible. At the very least there is some motive to spread false info. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gregmal on February 26, 2020, 07:44:00 PM
There is a point where media can create reality. For instance I spoke with a few folks today and in respect to NYC, traffic is noticeably lower. A friend polled a few Chinatown restaurants and traffic on average was down 40%+. The "money guys" are kind of just sitting on their hands waiting to see how things enfold. This despite what? Like 5 real cases in NY? The media can use their dishonesty to be effective here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jobyts on February 26, 2020, 08:32:14 PM
Apparently, the video is popularized by the exiled Chinese billionaire and the far right groups. The video looks genuine, unless they staged the whole thing, who knows.

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/feb/26/facebook-posts/chinese-billionaire-floats-conspiracy-about-corona/

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sharad on February 26, 2020, 08:42:18 PM
I think many people are looking at rates of infection and morbidity rates, which won't give us the true picture of the impact to the global economy and to the stock market, which is (crudely) for which many of us are looking for answers.

My take:

The virus likely has a much lower morbidity rate than the 2% in Wuhan, but the cases were never identified and reported correctly, and they sent people home or people avoided leaving home to deal with it themselves (h/t muscleman for some insight as well). Anyone at the beginning of the crisis that died of pneumonia like symptoms probably was ruled as a death from other sources. Regardless the morbidity rate at the beginning was skewed by the hospital cases, similar to the morbidity rates for people hospitalized for the flu in the US (8-12%, per CDC).

This spiked up morbidity rate clearly spooked the world, and the unknown nature of this virus is enough to scare everyone, so everyone freaked..but the market remained sanguine for two reasons...one, the Fed is in the midst of a massive asset buying spree, the repo markets are wide open, and liquidity has pushed markets into a blow-off top since Powell declared, for all intents and purposes, that the Fed has the markets' back during his Fed press conference in September. China also clamped down hard on the virus, trying to contain it, and, through surprising transparency, shared a lot of data with counterparts in the US, Canada, Europe and Australia, where the first full mapping of the virus' RNA was completed within a few days of receiving the virus sample itself.

While the markets drank the Fed Kool Aid, the tanker and dry bulk markets showed a different story. Rates plummeted, even in the face of IMO 2020 standards for tankers, which basically docked a large percentage of "dirty" tankers, to be upgraded with scrubbers that would reduce sulfur (?) emissions during their travels with petroleum products in a bid for global trade. This should have been the perfect recipe for a massive breakout from a 12 year bear market for rates, and the stocks soared from September to January in anticipation of it. Coronavirus clamped that down. China wasn't receiving their deliveries. The country shut down, stockpiles have built up, and demand for petroleum products declined 25% plus.

The market factored all these things in, and banked on a huge stimulus in China to keep the party going. South Korea dented those prospects, but Iran, and especially Italy, broke the whole thesis down. The moment a bunch of villages near Milan became a prime cluster outside China, all bets of containment were off. In the meantime, we have seen the market reach the apex of a massive blow-off top after a nearly 11 year bull market from the March 6, 2009 bottom. The last 4-5 years have resulted in P/E valuations doubling (or more) for the biggest companies in the S&P 500 (https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/pe-ratio), the massive move to index investing (https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/19/passive-investing-now-controls-nearly-half-the-us-stock-market.html), and the retail investor returning to the market over the last couple of years (see the increased interest in Bitcoin, Tesla, r/wsb, etc.).

We were likely due for a large market decline when Powell pulled the plug on asset purchses (he declared mid Q2 2020, so let's say April), and that would have likely pushed us down 20%, like the Fed pivot of 2018. Once you factor in the coronavirus, how much further could we fall? Not only should we see the "p" of the p/e ratio fall, but we will also see the "e" fall too (see MSFT today).

Bottom line: IMHO, this is only the beginning. I was holding out hope, but that Italian outbreak changed it all. The Greek fashion designer who contracted it during her time at Milan Fashion Week means that cases will likely pop up everywhere, especially larger markets.

Anyways, I think people shouldn't be evaluating this from the morbidity rates, etc (I am guilty of doing this when we were transfixed by what was happening in China, and far from everywhere else). They should evaluate the destruction of capital flows and trade, and how much wealth that destroys. The destruction of wealth could mean a steeper decline. But the banks are better capitalized, so the upswing should be equally dramatic, whenever that will be. This is going to get much more ugly (consider if the Olympics are cancelled), and I think S&P 2,500 could be in the cards...but I could also see a massive upswing in the summer, when coordinated global stimulus pushes things higher, faster. We shouldn't be comparing this crisis to SARS or any other modern pandemic threat. This should be compared to the 1918 influenza outbreak and the subsequent 1919-1921 market crash and depression.


If you are looking for investments, consider NYSE:NVO (their products are probably the least sensitive to the virus) and Nasdaq:GRVY (Gravity Co Ltd, as South Korean gaming company: SK gaming culture is amongst the most profitable in the world and what the hell else are they going to do there now?).

Sorry for the long response. I was hoping it would help people see the broader picture of the market's moves ahead of the coronavirus, and the moves within the "guts" of the economy at the same time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: cherzeca on February 26, 2020, 09:34:18 PM
as I write this 2/27 early morning futures on S/P are down such that we may hit during the trading day a 10% correction from the recent high.  I am edging in now buying this dip.  I do this from a position of strength, cash over 50%, but I think anyone who has a horizon that looks out 2-5 years (and believes we wont go into a socialist cesspool) might want to buy into this dip as well if you have dry tinder.  likely will give fed cover to drop rates as well.  just my two cents. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Liberty on February 27, 2020, 05:25:39 AM
The cases that make it to the hospital or are diagnosed clinically are the worst ones. So 2% of those isn't 2% of ALL cases. A lot of people get a mild form, stay home with a fever, and recover. Not all those will get diagnosed and counted.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Castanza on February 27, 2020, 05:29:14 AM
Apparently, the video is popularized by the exiled Chinese billionaire and the far right groups. The video looks genuine, unless they staged the whole thing, who knows.

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/feb/26/facebook-posts/chinese-billionaire-floats-conspiracy-about-corona/

It's certainly not out of the realm of possibility. I mean a brief look at China's past will show many sick things done to their own populations. But conspiracy theories are often a bunch of conjecture and convenient motives, outcomes, and boogiemen being strung together.

But I will say this......those Hong Kong protests have basically halted.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gregmal on February 27, 2020, 05:47:57 AM
as I write this 2/27 early morning futures on S/P are down such that we may hit during the trading day a 10% correction from the recent high.  I am edging in now buying this dip.  I do this from a position of strength, cash over 50%, but I think anyone who has a horizon that looks out 2-5 years (and believes we wont go into a socialist cesspool) might want to buy into this dip as well if you have dry tinder.  likely will give fed cover to drop rates as well.  just my two cents.

On this note, I found the following pretty funny and a good summary of most folks

https://twitter.com/friedoystercult/status/1232065846639501313

Everyone is always "waiting to buy on a pullback" but quite frequently when they get it, sit on their hands rife with paralysis.

Some stuff is currently absurdly cheap. A lot of stuff was already a bit out of hand and probably becomes attractive again with the next 5-10% off the SPY.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: zippy1 on February 27, 2020, 06:18:33 AM
Apparently, the video is popularized by the exiled Chinese billionaire and the far right groups. The video looks genuine, unless they staged the whole thing, who knows.

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/feb/26/facebook-posts/chinese-billionaire-floats-conspiracy-about-corona/
It is a bit funny that the so called "fact checker" does not know the last name (Surname) of this Chinese billionaire is Guo instead of Wengui, which is his given name.   ::)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BG2008 on February 27, 2020, 06:44:24 AM
as I write this 2/27 early morning futures on S/P are down such that we may hit during the trading day a 10% correction from the recent high.  I am edging in now buying this dip.  I do this from a position of strength, cash over 50%, but I think anyone who has a horizon that looks out 2-5 years (and believes we wont go into a socialist cesspool) might want to buy into this dip as well if you have dry tinder.  likely will give fed cover to drop rates as well.  just my two cents.

On this note, I found the following pretty funny and a good summary of most folks

https://twitter.com/friedoystercult/status/1232065846639501313

Everyone is always "waiting to buy on a pullback" but quite frequently when they get it, sit on their hands rife with paralysis.

Some stuff is currently absurdly cheap. A lot of stuff was already a bit out of hand and probably becomes attractive again with the next 5-10% off the SPY.

Guys,

I value this community a great deal as I particularly thank this thread for heightening my awareness of the potential impact from the Corona Virus.  It is interesting to note that Microsoft, PayPal, and Mastercard have all issued revenue warnings.  These are "rails" of the economy.  Particularly Mastercard as it is likely a leading indicator of future spending, be it purchases, travel, hotel rooms etc.  So We are getting a glimp of the Q1 earnings.  I feel that whatever number that comes out of China will likely be altered.  Whatever the US multinationals report will actually be the real numbers.  Q1 is likely going to be a bloodbath. 

I started buying a lot of puts in Mid Jan (thanks to this thread) and I look like an idiot for about a month.  These SPY, RACE, PLD, etc puts are allowing me to become more greedy.  So, I don't think this is buy another dip.  The reaction to an outbreak is to shut everything down.  This will likely hit the GDP pretty hard.  Just my crappy opinion. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gregmal on February 27, 2020, 07:01:00 AM
as I write this 2/27 early morning futures on S/P are down such that we may hit during the trading day a 10% correction from the recent high.  I am edging in now buying this dip.  I do this from a position of strength, cash over 50%, but I think anyone who has a horizon that looks out 2-5 years (and believes we wont go into a socialist cesspool) might want to buy into this dip as well if you have dry tinder.  likely will give fed cover to drop rates as well.  just my two cents.

On this note, I found the following pretty funny and a good summary of most folks

https://twitter.com/friedoystercult/status/1232065846639501313

Everyone is always "waiting to buy on a pullback" but quite frequently when they get it, sit on their hands rife with paralysis.

Some stuff is currently absurdly cheap. A lot of stuff was already a bit out of hand and probably becomes attractive again with the next 5-10% off the SPY.

Guys,

I value this community a great deal as I particularly thank this thread for heightening my awareness of the potential impact from the Corona Virus.  It is interesting to note that Microsoft, PayPal, and Mastercard have all issued revenue warnings.  These are "rails" of the economy.  Particularly Mastercard as it is likely a leading indicator of future spending, be it purchases, travel, hotel rooms etc.  So We are getting a glimp of the Q1 earnings.  I feel that whatever number that comes out of China will likely be altered.  Whatever the US multinationals report will actually be the real numbers.  Q1 is likely going to be a bloodbath. 

I started buying a lot of puts in Mid Jan (thanks to this thread) and I look like an idiot for about a month.  These SPY, RACE, PLD, etc puts are allowing me to become more greedy.  So, I don't think this is buy another dip.  The reaction to an outbreak is to shut everything down.  This will likely hit the GDP pretty hard.  Just my crappy opinion.

I dont disagree with your thoughts. I was actually a bit surprised by the feedback Ive been getting from people on the ground in the NY/CA areas. But at the same time, any way you cut this, its a temporary issue. If its not, well, you better have gold and guns and nothing else will matter. So if its temporary, what the appropriate price/discount to apply for a couple quarters/maybe a year of depressed earning from great businesses?

Im more than pleased with the opportunities as my negativity(much like yours in January) was starting to make me question myself. Only real mistake was probably buying a little to much BRK, but hopefully Warren is compensating me for that. Otherwise its a simple decision, gold/guns, or great businesses xx% off their highs? Lock and load.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: elliott on February 27, 2020, 07:09:45 AM
I think this virus will certainly have a noticeable economic impact, although I tend to think it will only be temporal. That said, buy the dip? Me, I am not into that game - for the last 2 years, I have only bought 1 stock per year - but, even if I were, I would think twice in the case of indices and the like. The economic impact may be short lived and minor, but who says hyped stocks will reflate to the same craze multiples?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 27, 2020, 07:39:22 AM
BAC has lost $49B in market cap over the past 5 days.  I doubt their discounted earnings come in $49B lighter due to a virus.

How about just calling this a selloff with Coronavirus being the fuse?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BG2008 on February 27, 2020, 07:42:35 AM
BAC has lost $49B in market cap over the past 5 days.  I doubt their earnings come in $49B lighter due to a virus.

How about just calling this a selloff with Coronavirus being the fuse?

Eric,

You always have a good way of putting things into the right perspective.  Market has been nutz for sometime. I can't count how many value investors are saying "well interest rate is 2%, so 3% FCF yield on a great business is cheap in the long"  It's probably true over 10 years for the right companies.  But it seems to be applied to every company.  I think Coronavirus is the fuse that lit this market on fire.  The Wallstreetbets people was kind of the top tick. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gamecock-YT on February 27, 2020, 07:56:14 AM
BAC has lost $49B in market cap over the past 5 days.  I doubt their earnings come in $49B lighter due to a virus.

How about just calling this a selloff with Coronavirus being the fuse?

I think Coronavirus is the fuse that lit this market on fire. 

Especially how levered the corporates are. Weak earnings, tightening standards, unable to rollover debts. Bankruptcies. Could be the Minsky Moment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Liberty on February 27, 2020, 08:08:40 AM
Probably already posted, but if not:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: stahleyp on February 27, 2020, 08:52:56 AM
BAC has lost $49B in market cap over the past 5 days.  I doubt their earnings come in $49B lighter due to a virus.

How about just calling this a selloff with Coronavirus being the fuse?

I think Coronavirus is the fuse that lit this market on fire. 

Especially how levered the corporates are. Weak earnings, tightening standards, unable to rollover debts. Bankruptcies. Could be the Minsky Moment.

I don't know what the market will do but this creating a big liquidity event is the big issue here. I would expect the Fed to announce further easing but we'll see.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Liberty on February 27, 2020, 10:32:14 AM
https://twitter.com/RonaldKlain/status/1233096384997449728?s=20

"WASHINGTON — The White House moved on Thursday to tighten control of coronavirus messaging by government health officials and scientists, directing them to clear all statements and public appearance with the office of Vice President Mike Pence .."

Quote
Presidents Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush and Obama trusted Tony Fauci to be their top adviser on infectious disease, and the nation's most trusted communicator to the public.  If Trump is changing that, it is a threat to public health and safety.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ERzNPzhXkAEKa-s?format=png&name=small)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 27, 2020, 10:43:03 AM
https://twitter.com/RonaldKlain/status/1233096384997449728?s=20

"WASHINGTON — The White House moved on Thursday to tighten control of coronavirus messaging by government health officials and scientists, directing them to clear all statements and public appearance with the office of Vice President Mike Pence .."

Quote
Presidents Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush and Obama trusted Tony Fauci to be their top adviser on infectious disease, and the nation's most trusted communicator to the public.  If Trump is changing that, it is a threat to public health and safety.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ERzNPzhXkAEKa-s?format=png&name=small)


Postscript: During a panic-stricken breakdown over the Ebola threat in 2014, Trump lashed out at then-President Barack Obama for appointing Ron Klain to oversee the federal response. The Republican argued at the time via Twitter, "Obama just appointed an Ebola Czar with zero experience in the medical area and zero experience in infectious disease control. A TOTAL JOKE!"

Five-and-a-half years later, we know two things. First, Klain was the right person for the job and he handled the emergency perfectly. Second, Trump just appointed a coronavirus czar who has "zero experience in the medical area and zero experience in infectious disease control."


https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/why-pence-unfortunate-choice-oversee-coronavirus-response-n1144021
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: writser on February 27, 2020, 10:51:26 AM
I'm sure Mike Pence will pray the virus away.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jurgis on February 27, 2020, 10:57:07 AM
I'm sure Mike Pence will pray the virus away.

Quote
The decision to put Mr. Pence in charge was made on Wednesday after the president told some people that the vice president didn’t “have anything else to do,” according to people familiar with the president’s comments.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Liberty on February 27, 2020, 11:20:56 AM
I'm sure Mike Pence will pray the virus away.

Yeah, guy who said around 2000 that smoking doesn't kill, and let an AIDS situation get out of hand in his state, likely because of his anti-science views... Just the guy to put in charge.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: mcliu on February 27, 2020, 11:33:49 AM
Uh oh. Time to move to politics?  ::)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: stahleyp on February 27, 2020, 11:34:30 AM
Uh oh. Time to move to politics?  ::)

Yes, their hate is starting to show. ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Liberty on February 27, 2020, 11:37:12 AM
Uh oh. Time to move to politics?  ::)

Yes, their hate is starting to show. ;)

Can't point out that the coronavirus czar is incompetent in the coronavirus thread because it's inconvenient to your politics? You're the one looking at this through a political lens.
We're looking at it through a scientific one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Casey on February 27, 2020, 11:39:31 AM
I read it as Trump putting someone on virus who he doesnt mind "taking the fall" for it, because we don't seem particularly well prepared.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: stahleyp on February 27, 2020, 11:40:38 AM
Uh oh. Time to move to politics?  ::)

Yes, their hate is starting to show. ;)

Can't point out that the coronavirus czar is incompetent in the coronavirus thread because it's inconvenient to your politics? You're the one looking at this through a political lens.
We're looking at it through a scientific one.

I didn't vote nor do i like Trump. But, you have a lot of anti-Trump posts.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Liberty on February 27, 2020, 11:43:01 AM
I didn't vote nor do i like Trump. But, you have a lot of anti-Trump posts.

It's not personal, I'm anti-stupidity and anti-corruption generally.

Can you stop bringing the thread off-topic now please?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: stahleyp on February 27, 2020, 11:44:23 AM
I didn't vote nor do i like Trump. But, you have a lot of anti-Trump posts.

It's not personal, I'm anti-stupidity and anti-corruption generally.

Well...I can't argue with you on that and Trump.  :P
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Liberty on February 27, 2020, 11:50:06 AM
I read it as Trump putting someone on virus who he doesnt mind "taking the fall" for it, because we don't seem particularly well prepared.

Yeah, he's clearly the fall guy. Trump said things were fine, so if things turn out not too bad, he can say he was right. If they get bad, he can blame Pence. It's 100% consistent with his M.O. Anything goes well, it's him, anything goes bad, it's someone else around him that he now "barely knows" and that "begged him for the job"...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: rb on February 27, 2020, 11:54:02 AM
At least pence seems to have put in charge someone competent. So fingers crossed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Liberty on February 27, 2020, 12:15:12 PM
At least pence seems to have put in charge someone competent. So fingers crossed.

Yeah, the question is more, will they be allowed to do their jobs, or will they be vetoed for political reasons. It's not a good sign when they tell scientists that they can't say anything without being cleared by the White House and when Trump publicly contradicts the CDC and WHO...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Kaegi2011 on February 27, 2020, 12:17:18 PM

I didn't vote nor do i like Trump. But, you have a lot of anti-Trump posts.


Do you feel Pence is right person for the job?  Isn't that the discussion (rather than a partisan one)?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gregmal on February 27, 2020, 12:18:18 PM
Pence is a figurehead. Thats all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: stahleyp on February 27, 2020, 12:21:40 PM

I didn't vote nor do i like Trump. But, you have a lot of anti-Trump posts.


Do you feel Pence is right person for the job?  Isn't that the discussion (rather than a partisan one)?

I figure he probably knows as much as just about anyone else does right now. He's also a shrewd politician that knows what to say...which you might not have when a real medical expert is at the helm.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Kaegi2011 on February 27, 2020, 12:25:39 PM

I didn't vote nor do i like Trump. But, you have a lot of anti-Trump posts.


Do you feel Pence is right person for the job?  Isn't that the discussion (rather than a partisan one)?

I figure he probably knows as much as just about anyone else does right now. He's also a shrewd politician that knows what to say...which you might not have when a real medical expert is at the helm.

So... you want someone to deliberately misinform the public?  And do you really think he knows as much as anyone else (e.g., someone who has spent their entire life studying diseases)? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: stahleyp on February 27, 2020, 12:31:57 PM

I didn't vote nor do i like Trump. But, you have a lot of anti-Trump posts.


Do you feel Pence is right person for the job?  Isn't that the discussion (rather than a partisan one)?

I figure he probably knows as much as just about anyone else does right now. He's also a shrewd politician that knows what to say...which you might not have when a real medical expert is at the helm.

So... you want someone to deliberately misinform the public?  And do you really think he knows as much as anyone else (e.g., someone who has spent their entire life studying diseases)?

It depends what you mean by "right" person for the job. Typically the job of a politician is to encourage public safety. The public tends to go a bit crazy. I don't think he should mislead people but he shouldn't promote panic either - which is a far higher outcome who is less versed in public speaking.

I'm assuming some of the best doctors and researchers are telling him about it. The same as an expert.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Liberty on February 27, 2020, 12:32:50 PM
Pence is a figurehead. Thats all.

So he can't make decisions based on what people below him tell him? And that's good?

Or he can make decisions...? So you think he's the right person to make those decisions?

Seems like either way, he's the wrong person for the job.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Castanza on February 27, 2020, 12:38:24 PM
Why is everyone on here acting like Pence and Trump are in the lab trying to synthesize the vaccine on their own  ;D

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: stahleyp on February 27, 2020, 12:40:50 PM
Why is everyone on here acting like Pence and Trump are in the lab trying to synthesize the vaccine on their own  ;D

Trump doesn't need Pence for that. He has the best knowledge of science.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Castanza on February 27, 2020, 12:42:39 PM
Why is everyone on here acting like Pence and Trump are in the lab trying to synthesize the vaccine on their own  ;D

Trump doesn't need Pence for that. He has the best knowledge of science.

Trump University > MIT  ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Liberty on February 27, 2020, 12:45:45 PM
Why is everyone on here acting like Pence and Trump are in the lab trying to synthesize the vaccine on their own  ;D

The CEO of a company isn't in the R&D lab or on the factory floor or doing sales call or doing building maintenance (most of the time) either, but do you think it doesn't matter who the one making the decisions, picking the team and allocating resources is?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Castanza on February 27, 2020, 12:53:25 PM
Why is everyone on here acting like Pence and Trump are in the lab trying to synthesize the vaccine on their own  ;D

The CEO of a company isn't in the R&D lab or on the factory floor or doing sales call or doing building maintenance (most of the time) either, but do you think it doesn't matter who the one making the decisions, picking the team and allocating resources is?

Behind the scenes
Expert: "We have been seeing success with this testing. Statistics show that this is the best course of action and we need resources."
Trump: "Name your price."

Press Conference
Trump: "I with my great intellect have decided to allocate this specific amount of funds to this expert for the study I found most compelling. I believe they are the best for the job. We have the best here in America. The vaccine is going to be hugeee."

Also Trump is about the biggest germaphobe the world has ever seen. I'm surprised he isn't walking around like bubble boy yet.  :P
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sharad on February 27, 2020, 01:03:41 PM
Back to the market action: the market has basically completed the circle back to the S&P levels in September when Powell indicated asset purchases would continue until the spring, which basically opened the rush into equities. This appeared to be a classic blow-off top, and so we were bound to give that back. We just gave it back in bigger chunks as a result of novel coronavirus. So, now that we gave back what was never really ours, we can address how the market gets impacted by coronavirus. Given earnings expectations weren't exactly stellar before, does China's upcoming stimulus drive us back up? One thing to pay attention to: Chinese activity is now rising day over day...it's a small green shoot for them, but might take a little while to be recognized here. And the virus is likely already spreading in North America: Canada and US simply aren't testing as many people as other areas of the world.

Does Powell indicate that asset purchases continue after his Q2 end date? Would that even matter? Those are the questions I currently ponder, while I expect China to announce some sort of first round of massive stimulus in the coming weeks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: gary17 on February 27, 2020, 01:07:13 PM
Trump's early border control of banning flights from China has helped buying them time, i think credit for him on that.
The US has about 15 cases if you ignore the repatriated citizens; for a country that's 10x the population they have just 2 cases more than Canada.

but now that the virus is not in China anymore, it'll be interesting to see if Canada and US can continue to keep the virus ratio low.

Interesting during SARS (and I know we are not supposed to compare to SARS) - but Japan had 0 cases!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SnarkyPuppy on February 27, 2020, 01:25:48 PM
Trump's early border control of banning flights from China has helped buying them time, i think credit for him on that.
The US has about 15 cases if you ignore the repatriated citizens; for a country that's 10x the population they have just 2 cases more than Canada.

but now that the virus is not in China anymore, it'll be interesting to see if Canada and US can continue to keep the virus ratio low.

Interesting during SARS (and I know we are not supposed to compare to SARS) - but Japan had 0 cases!

Is there a reason you’re ignoring the obvious and key variable of the fact that he United States has been significantly undertesting potential cases?   

Why are intellectually sound people continuing to state:
- LoLtHeFlUkilLsmOrEpEoPle (ignoring growth rates and unknown yet wide range of mortality rates)
- US only has 15 reported cases (without mentioning the proportionally less testing - literally only 455 people tested as of yesterday)

Definitionally a short term problem for markets and I’m buying today - but in terms of the spread of the virus why are these statements even being made lol
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 27, 2020, 01:31:45 PM
Trump's early border control of banning flights from China has helped buying them time, i think credit for him on that.
The US has about 15 cases if you ignore the repatriated citizens; for a country that's 10x the population they have just 2 cases more than Canada.

but now that the virus is not in China anymore, it'll be interesting to see if Canada and US can continue to keep the virus ratio low.

Interesting during SARS (and I know we are not supposed to compare to SARS) - but Japan had 0 cases!

I give credit to Trump for this:

Trump dismantling of Obama era disease response leaves US exposed

https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/watch/trump-dismantling-of-obama-era-disease-response-leaves-us-exposed-79447621625
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BG2008 on February 27, 2020, 01:49:18 PM
Guys,

This thread has been incredibly helpful for me.  For those that want to trash talk partisan politics, I can set up a cage and give you guys head gears and gloves.  Go at it.  Let's keep the partisan politics out of this.  How politics and policy affects markets and behavior will be appreciated.  Thanks. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: shhughes1116 on February 27, 2020, 02:22:26 PM
Just a couple of observations, some of which you may perceive to be political:
1. The government apparatus that was stood up to deal with epidemics and pandemics was disassembled by Trump.  There were a couple of groups across the government who managed this work, monitored signals, made sure the medical system was prepared with the right information and supplies, ensured state/local/territory/tribal health depts were positioned to coordinate and implement public health response during crises, and brought together the various groups across the government (e.g. CDC, FDA) to identify and speed along vaccines, diagnostic tests, etc.  While the mandate remains for this work, the people and funding to make this work happen are mostly gone. 
2. The case fatality rate amongst the 70+ age group is close to 15%, based on data from China.  You can and should take any data from China with a grain of salt.  I don't buy their overall numbers, but, I'll bet they fudge the numerator and denominator in similar proportions, and so I suspect the CFR %'s across different age groups is reasonably accurate, even though the data is incomplete at this point (i.e. cases still in the hospital that will die, or recover).  This CFR isn't hugely surprising as these folks tend to be susceptible to pneumonia, and suffer from other complications that make this illness deadly.   
3.  Where younger folks are dying, it is either because they are immunocompromised, or because of extreme inflammation (cytokine storm).  When younger people are dying from this inflammation, it (anecdotally) appears to be people that would be in prime position to be re-infected with the virus (i.e. a doctor).  This reminds me a little bit of dengue fever, where the initial infection tends to be bad, and a reinfection with a different strain tends to cause a deadly hemorrhagic fever.  if the two virus operate in a similar manner, then we may see a second phase of illness as folks are re-infected (with higher case fatality rates due to the high-inflammation, and a higher burden on the hospital system as more folks present with conditions that require ventilators and other less-common equipment).

I think we are in the early innings of this pandemic.  I suspect we are going to end up with something that is always present, like the flu, but with different mortality and morbidity rates.   

Right now, it seems like the sell-off in the stock market is a function of fear of the unknown, coupled with high valuations.  I personally think we are going to see a second phase of the downdraft, as we start to see forward guidance change to account for the economic disruption.  My *fear* is that as the economic conditions deteriorate and earnings drop, we will end up with a liquidity event that will prompt a redux 2008-2009, as over-leveraged companies can't roll over or pay debt. 

   


 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Liberty on February 27, 2020, 02:25:54 PM
This is Michael Lewis’ Fifth Risk:

https://twitter.com/mffisher/status/1233140851498459136?s=21

Quote
Trump administration sent U.S. workers to greet returning coronavirus victims without protective gear -- and when HHS whistleblower told federal bosses about it, she was reassigned and threatened with sacking.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spekulatius on February 27, 2020, 03:27:20 PM
The Corona virus outbreak will very likely cause a deep recession in Europe, Asia and quite possibly in NA. Depending on how well it is handled, it could well influence the outcome of the election.

I mentioned this in the “what did you sell today thread”, but I made a market timing call and sold a substantial part of my equity holdings during short lived bounce today. I did not do so during the 2018 fall/winter downturn, but the current situation  is different (I think) and at vastly higher equity valuations, I think we are very vulnerable to further correction and possibly a liquidity event.

I sincerely hope I am wrong.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dalal.Holdings on February 27, 2020, 06:30:26 PM
The graph you should be looking at: cases outside China. Numbers you can actually trust. Note within China, there are some provinces where the case # has not budged for over a week (Zhejiang). It seems like there may be some obfuscation going on, esp outside Hubei.

For those saying not to worry about the "2%" that will be affected, the economic implications of people staying indoors are massive enough, esp in a consumption oriented economy with anemic growth such as ours.

Trump the reality TV star is finally being put to the test. As is his MO, he's setting up a fall guy (Pence) because the buck never stops with him, but with the people he hires (they're always "the best"--until they're not: See Tillerson, Flynn, Bolton, Kelly, etc etc).

He's terrified of being honest to the American people because it will cause panic (crisis of confidence) and trigger a recession in an election yr as people will cut off travel/shopping/home buying/etc. And of course, God forbid stocks come down bc then he can't use his clever "how is your 401k doing" campaign line. And Powell won't be able to help him with a cutback in consumption that comes from virus induced fears, not only do we have rock bottom interest rates, but lowering them will not get people to go outside.

Reality will likely catch up to his obfuscation anyway and he can't cover up a crisis like this one for long...this ain't no reality show or Trump University where it's all about the marketing. After all it is exponential growth in cases (about 20% a day--what happens to $4000 that grows 20% a day?). The truth will overwhelm his massaging of the message in due time with a crisis like this one and it will not be pretty.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 27, 2020, 07:02:39 PM
Health officials, scientists must get statements vetted by White House:  https://www.msnbc.com/deadline-white-house/watch/report-white-house-locking-down-messaging-from-federal-government-on-coronavirus-79563845972

Doesn't the Chinese government also do this?

So Pence becomes the filter through which information must flow, and Pence is the guy who penned an article stating that tobacco doesn't really kill people as claimed by the left wing media.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Viking on February 27, 2020, 07:16:36 PM
The Corona virus outbreak will very likely cause a deep recession in Europe, Asia and quite possibly in NA. Depending on how well it is handled, it could well influence the outcome of the election.

I mentioned this in the “what did you sell today thread”, but I made a market timing call and sold a substantial part of my equity holdings during short lived bounce today. I did not do so during the 2018 fall/winter downturn, but the current situation  is different (I think) and at vastly higher equity valuations, I think we are very vulnerable to further correction and possibly a liquidity event.

I sincerely hope I am wrong.

Wow. Big moves :-) The light bulb for me went off on Monday. Tuesday and Wed I was mostly selling; raised cash position to 80%. Was a big buyer of BRK today at the close. This will take some time to play out. I need to be patient on the buy side...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: LC on February 27, 2020, 07:21:26 PM
The Corona virus outbreak will very likely cause a deep recession in Europe, Asia and quite possibly in NA. Depending on how well it is handled, it could well influence the outcome of the election.

I mentioned this in the “what did you sell today thread”, but I made a market timing call and sold a substantial part of my equity holdings during short lived bounce today. I did not do so during the 2018 fall/winter downturn, but the current situation  is different (I think) and at vastly higher equity valuations, I think we are very vulnerable to further correction and possibly a liquidity event.

I sincerely hope I am wrong.

I too hope you are wrong.

I will say, on the other side of the argument: COVID 19 does not change the underlying cause of high asset prices: very low interest rates globally. It may hurt the productivity side of the equation - low activity, low top and bottom lines. But (if things work out for human society - an optimistic view) this is a temporary problem until normal activity resumes.

It has historically paid better to be on the optimistic side of human progress. The alternative is we hole up in bunkers with canned foods and burn worthless paper certificates for heat. I am hoping we somehow make it through this - globally.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Castanza on February 27, 2020, 07:23:26 PM
Health officials, scientists must get statements vetted by White House:  https://www.msnbc.com/deadline-white-house/watch/report-white-house-locking-down-messaging-from-federal-government-on-coronavirus-79563845972

Doesn't the Chinese government also do this?

So Pence becomes the filter through which information must flow, and Pence is the guy who penned an article stating that tobacco doesn't really kill people as claimed by the left wing media.

Honestly I think you guys are overreacting. There isn’t a President past, present, nor future who wouldn’t have some type of media control. Out of fairness I agree that Pence (and Trump) probably are not the best to handle this situation. But who is? You’re dealing with the unknown and I trust Pence to punt to individuals who know what they’re doing. Donny isn’t going to take this back under his wing (until it’s almost solved and he’s looking for credit)  :P

Also you’re being a bit dishonest with what Pence said regarding tobacco.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/mike-pence-smoking/

Back to the corona virus....I think the key metric everyone wants to know is mortality rate...my guess is that’s driving the majority of the fear. Especially when you hear and see videos of “people being burned alive.” 

The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle. Worse than what China reported, but I’m personally doubtful of the bubonic plague hysteria. If it turns out to be as bad as some say, well I’ll be at the family cabin
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 27, 2020, 07:43:42 PM
Health officials, scientists must get statements vetted by White House:  https://www.msnbc.com/deadline-white-house/watch/report-white-house-locking-down-messaging-from-federal-government-on-coronavirus-79563845972

Doesn't the Chinese government also do this?

So Pence becomes the filter through which information must flow, and Pence is the guy who penned an article stating that tobacco doesn't really kill people as claimed by the left wing media.

Honestly I think you guys are overreacting. There isn’t a President past, present, nor future who wouldn’t have some type of media control. Out of fairness I agree that Pence (and Trump) probably are not the best to handle this situation. But who is? You’re dealing with the unknown and I trust Pence to punt to individuals who know what they’re doing. Donny isn’t going to take this back under his wing (until it’s almost solved and he’s looking for credit)  :P

Also you’re being a bit dishonest with what Pence said regarding tobacco.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/mike-pence-smoking/

Back to the corona virus....I think the key metric everyone wants to know is mortality rate...my guess is that’s driving the majority of the fear. Especially when you hear and see videos of “people being burned alive.” 

The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle. Worse than what China reported, but I’m personally doubtful of the bubonic plague hysteria. If it turns out to be as bad as some say, well I’ll be at the family cabin

The Snopes article says this:
Although Pence did state that “smoking doesn’t kill,” he buttressed his argument by saying that only a third of smokers died of smoking-related illnesses

Similarly, using the same reasoning, it could be said that Coronavirus doesn't kill because most people survive it. 
And handguns don't kill because 80% of people shot by handguns survive.

Anyways, Pence was appointed seemingly at the same time as Trump was contradicting the CDC on coronavirus.  So it's a bad omen IMO that an official filter has been put into place (The White House).  It appears to be a direct response to what the CDC said.

https://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/watch/trump-gives-incoherent-briefing-on-coronavirus-contradicts-cdc-79522373801
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gregmal on February 27, 2020, 07:54:41 PM
The Corona virus outbreak will very likely cause a deep recession in Europe, Asia and quite possibly in NA. Depending on how well it is handled, it could well influence the outcome of the election.

I mentioned this in the “what did you sell today thread”, but I made a market timing call and sold a substantial part of my equity holdings during short lived bounce today. I did not do so during the 2018 fall/winter downturn, but the current situation  is different (I think) and at vastly higher equity valuations, I think we are very vulnerable to further correction and possibly a liquidity event.

I sincerely hope I am wrong.

I too hope you are wrong.

I will say, on the other side of the argument: COVID 19 does not change the underlying cause of high asset prices: very low interest rates globally. It may hurt the productivity side of the equation - low activity, low top and bottom lines. But (if things work out for human society - an optimistic view) this is a temporary problem until normal activity resumes.

It has historically paid better to be on the optimistic side of human progress. The alternative is we hole up in bunkers with canned foods and burn worthless paper certificates for heat. I am hoping we somehow make it through this - globally.

That is essentially it. Who knows where it finds calm, but at the end of the day, theres a bunch of cheap stocks right now and theres a bunch of still expensive ones. "The market" as in the S&P is currently trading a few percent over 2018 levels. Obviously, "the market" consists of different things and some dont make a whole lot of sense. But the baby is getting thrown out with the bathwater. Income Realty for instance, which basically tracks with bonds, off 8% today. Its indiscriminate. Amazing how a week ago everyone(generally speaking) loved stocks, and today everyone hates them(although again, after basically 3, separate 1000 point drops in 4 days, its understandable).

But rates are low and only getting lower. People will recoup from the PTSD, and then be faced with a dilemma of where to put their money. As has been the case prior, with every market meltdown Ive ever witnessed, people find a way to figure shit out. And if not, the government fixes the problem with stimulus or backstops. Its incompatible that people will put their money in negative rate instruments or bonds yielding 1%, but they won't touch stocks with significantly greater profiles because the next 6-12 months might get disrupted before it goes back to normal.

Whatever the fear is, its more likely than not temporary, especially given the fact that China is already heading back to normal. I think the market just got out of hand the past few months, and as ERICOPOLY stated, just needed a reason to adjust. Good assets will remain such unless its armageddon. In which case there are definitely better doomsday kamikaze trades out there to make a fortune betting on failure. Its really just panic. As I wrote this Dow futures just dropped 200 points....

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Castanza on February 27, 2020, 07:54:54 PM
Health officials, scientists must get statements vetted by White House:  https://www.msnbc.com/deadline-white-house/watch/report-white-house-locking-down-messaging-from-federal-government-on-coronavirus-79563845972

Doesn't the Chinese government also do this?

So Pence becomes the filter through which information must flow, and Pence is the guy who penned an article stating that tobacco doesn't really kill people as claimed by the left wing media.

Honestly I think you guys are overreacting. There isn’t a President past, present, nor future who wouldn’t have some type of media control. Out of fairness I agree that Pence (and Trump) probably are not the best to handle this situation. But who is? You’re dealing with the unknown and I trust Pence to punt to individuals who know what they’re doing. Donny isn’t going to take this back under his wing (until it’s almost solved and he’s looking for credit)  :P

Also you’re being a bit dishonest with what Pence said regarding tobacco.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/mike-pence-smoking/

Back to the corona virus....I think the key metric everyone wants to know is mortality rate...my guess is that’s driving the majority of the fear. Especially when you hear and see videos of “people being burned alive.” 

The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle. Worse than what China reported, but I’m personally doubtful of the bubonic plague hysteria. If it turns out to be as bad as some say, well I’ll be at the family cabin

The Snopes article says this:
Although Pence did state that “smoking doesn’t kill,” he buttressed his argument by saying that only a third of smokers died of smoking-related illnesses

Similarly, using the same reasoning, it could be said that Coronavirus doesn't kill because most people survive it. 
And handguns don't kill because 80% of people shot by handguns survive.

Anyways, Pence was appointed seemingly at the same time as Trump was contradicting the CDC on coronavirus.  So it's a bad omen IMO that an official filter has been put into place (The White House).  It appears to be a direct response to what the CDC said.

https://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/watch/trump-gives-incoherent-briefing-on-coronavirus-contradicts-cdc-79522373801
Yes and it goes on to say Pence was using accurate statistics for the time. It also says that the article was not primarily for the discussion of whether smoking is or isn’t dangerous. Rather it was for the legality and the preservation of the freedom to choose to smoke.

All I’m saying regarding Pence and Trump is give it a week or so. They haven’t even done anything yet but apparently they are doing it wrong....putting the cart before the horse.

Regardless it looks like the market was wanting an excuse for a sell off. LC, Spek, and Greg hit the nail on the head in this an other threads.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: LC on February 27, 2020, 08:38:13 PM
Don’t toot my horn - I’m down these last few days. Emotionally the objective is to stay even keeled.

There is a spectrum. On one side we have national pandemic and fear totally gripping the US markets, massive sell downs. On the other side, the CDC finds a vaccine in two weeks, and whatever market rebound that possibly entails.

The future is unknown but right now everyone is focused on the former and cannot even imagine the latter being a possibility. Guesstimate the odds of each and use that to discount your valuations and amount of dry powder to hold. That’s my goal at least, I’ll prob end up in the poor house voting for Bernie.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Viking on February 27, 2020, 08:56:24 PM

Back to the corona virus....I think the key metric everyone wants to know is mortality rate...my guess is that’s driving the majority of the fear. Especially when you hear and see videos of “people being burned alive.” 

The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle. Worse than what China reported, but I’m personally doubtful of the bubonic plague hysteria. If it turns out to be as bad as some say, well I’ll be at the family cabin

What I am also trying to understand is potential to slow / damage the economy. Not just the direct effects but also the secondary. What will GDP look like in Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4 and the year (which is what ultimately drives corporate earnings)? Will the virus take China, Europe and parts of Asia into a recession in 1H? Does the US and Canada also slip into a recession? If so, is it shallow?

How low do financial markets go in the near term? And how fast? At what point does the disruption in financial markets start to bleed into the larger economy? Does lending start to freeze up to 'out of favour' sectors (tourism/travel, oil and gas, companies with exposure to China supply chain, companies with too much debt etc)?

And what are the policy responses by the government? Do we get another injection of liquidity from the Fed? If so, will it help? What else can the government do to help?

Hopefully in a couple of weeks I can look at my post and ask "What on earth was he thinking!" :-)

PS: Citigroup, Goldman, JPMorgan Slash Earnings Estimates for Stocks
- https://finance.yahoo.com/news/citigroup-goldman-jpmorgan-slash-earnings-032720946.html

(Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc. now expects zero growth in global earnings for 2020 as the coronavirus throttles economic growth. And it warns even the new forecast may prove too optimistic. The bank’s call on earnings per share follows moves Thursday by Wall Street peers Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. to cut profit estimates on U.S. companies. Goldman expects no earnings gain for American firms this year.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Kaegi2011 on February 27, 2020, 09:30:51 PM

What I am also trying to understand is potential to slow / damage the economy. Not just the direct effects but also the secondary. What will GDP look like in Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4 and the year (which is what ultimately drives corporate earnings)? Will the virus take China, Europe and parts of Asia into a recession in 1H? Does the US and Canada also slip into a recession? If so, is it shallow?

How low do financial markets go in the near term? And how fast? At what point does the disruption in financial markets start to bleed into the larger economy? Does lending start to freeze up to 'out of favour' sectors (tourism/travel, oil and gas, companies with exposure to China supply chain, companies with too much debt etc)?

And what are the policy responses by the government? Do we get another injection of liquidity from the Fed? If so, will it help? What else can the government do to help?


All great questions that I think nobody can answer.  I think the wild card is that there's no way to really narrow down the possibilities of outcomes.  We can try, and maybe feel better about it, but inside a company what do you do when you can't travel to meet customers, or meet suppliers, or when consumers are potentially bunkered down?  Imagine being an airline, or a hotel, or a chemical manufacturer right now - how do you plan Q2?  Do you try to right size the cost structure or not?  Better yet, what are the ranges of outcomes that you need to plan for - down 80% to +10%?  In some ways the tourism industry has it easy in the sense that their products are temporal.  If you're in a manufacturing sector and potentially has to deal with the snap back in demand in Q2 or Q3 or Q4 - how will you do it?  Do you build inventory now in anticipation?  Do you cut the employees or keep them on despite really low utilization?  How do you coordinate along the supply chain?  I don't have a clue the cascading impacts. 

The one hope I think is on the horizon is that warmer weather is coming soon(ish).  THat should cut down dramatically on the disease, but even then it's not clear that it holds for Covid19 since it's new and we don't know its seasonal patterns yet.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: cherzeca on February 27, 2020, 10:32:02 PM

What I am also trying to understand is potential to slow / damage the economy. Not just the direct effects but also the secondary. What will GDP look like in Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4 and the year (which is what ultimately drives corporate earnings)? Will the virus take China, Europe and parts of Asia into a recession in 1H? Does the US and Canada also slip into a recession? If so, is it shallow?

How low do financial markets go in the near term? And how fast? At what point does the disruption in financial markets start to bleed into the larger economy? Does lending start to freeze up to 'out of favour' sectors (tourism/travel, oil and gas, companies with exposure to China supply chain, companies with too much debt etc)?

And what are the policy responses by the government? Do we get another injection of liquidity from the Fed? If so, will it help? What else can the government do to help?


All great questions that I think nobody can answer.  I think the wild card is that there's no way to really narrow down the possibilities of outcomes.  We can try, and maybe feel better about it, but inside a company what do you do when you can't travel to meet customers, or meet suppliers, or when consumers are potentially bunkered down?  Imagine being an airline, or a hotel, or a chemical manufacturer right now - how do you plan Q2?  Do you try to right size the cost structure or not?  Better yet, what are the ranges of outcomes that you need to plan for - down 80% to +10%?  In some ways the tourism industry has it easy in the sense that their products are temporal.  If you're in a manufacturing sector and potentially has to deal with the snap back in demand in Q2 or Q3 or Q4 - how will you do it?  Do you build inventory now in anticipation?  Do you cut the employees or keep them on despite really low utilization?  How do you coordinate along the supply chain?  I don't have a clue the cascading impacts. 

The one hope I think is on the horizon is that warmer weather is coming soon(ish).  THat should cut down dramatically on the disease, but even then it's not clear that it holds for Covid19 since it's new and we don't know its seasonal patterns yet.   

you raise good planning questions for a business and correctly point out that viral infections proliferate in the winter and not the summer.  South America where it is summer has very few cases (Brazil has 1). Australia has cases but likely due to travel proximity to china.  and recent viral infections have both a geometric increase and decrease in rates over their course.  I tend to think a correction in the markets was needed and this was as good as any cause for the correction, but this will be a temporal matter that will run its course in a not more than 6 months, at which point there may be a rather quick snapback to build the inventories etc that you point out may very well run down in the short term.

edit:  since SARS and MERS, genomic analysis has come a long way and there may be a vaccine sooner than many people expect.  see eg https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-scientists-In-three-weeks-we-will-have-coronavirus-vaccine-619101
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: kab60 on February 27, 2020, 11:21:01 PM
Obviously the market as a whole isn't cheap due to a quick 10 pct. drop, but boy do I think people are overreacting. Obviously there will be shocks to supply chains, obviously there will be Companies that'll have a bad year. But how much does 1 year matter? Haven't seen anything to suggest this is anything but temporary. Now, I'm not saying things won't keep going down - who knows, probably lots of momentum guys and milennials that can't stomach the vol - but companies that were already beaten up suddenly seem very attractive if one has a longer term view. When this round of Chinese flu is over, rates will still be rock bottom.

As for feb 15, CDC estimates 29 mio. people in the US have been ill with influenza. 13 mio. have been to a physician. 280.000 have been hospitalized, and at least 16.000 have died: https://twitter.com/dr_rwt/status/1232959423989112832/photo/1

Very much seems like a case of high uncertainty, low risk.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: rolling on February 28, 2020, 01:53:35 AM
Obviously the market as a whole isn't cheap due to a quick 10 pct. drop, but boy do I think people are overreacting. Obviously there will be shocks to supply chains, obviously there will be Companies that'll have a bad year. But how much does 1 year matter? Haven't seen anything to suggest this is anything but temporary. Now, I'm not saying things won't keep going down - who knows, probably lots of momentum guys and milennials that can't stomach the vol - but companies that were already beaten up suddenly seem very attractive if one has a longer term view. When this round of Chinese flu is over, rates will still be rock bottom.

As for feb 15, CDC estimates 29 mio. people in the US have been ill with influenza. 13 mio. have been to a physician. 280.000 have been hospitalized, and at least 16.000 have died: https://twitter.com/dr_rwt/status/1232959423989112832/photo/1

Very much seems like a case of high uncertainty, low risk.
about the influenza comparison: what if 2.900.000 to 5.000.000 had died, instead of those 16.000. Would the economic impact be the same? Or do you think many governments would need to shut down almost everything to try and delay this until a vaccine or treatment is available (both of which are available to influenza by the way)?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: kab60 on February 28, 2020, 02:42:57 AM
That would obviously be a different scenario, but it doesn't seem grounded in facts but fear. Anecdotally, but I talked with the CEO of Company with 60.000 people and ops in China yesterday. Said things are normalizing there. Just received this from a Chinese friend of mine that works as a consultant (excuse the poor English):

Situation in provinces out of China is getting better and better.  My home province Sichuan, nearly Hubei, has reported 538 cases cumulatively so far. It is a kindly of under control as only two four new cases reported in the past of 48hours. You got to know, there more than 100 million people in my province. What I said doesn't mean that you don't need to worry about it at all, but just don't be panic.

Sure, that's just anecdotes, but most else I read and hear supports those comments.

The experts I've seen comment on the subject also advice people to take a chill.

Obviously, the market is freaked, and I have no idea where the bottom is. But I hardly thing great businesses are impaired due to a Chinese flu. Actually, great Companies might come out stronger if they're able to secure work from those that are hit harder.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: rb on February 28, 2020, 04:09:00 AM
Obviously the market as a whole isn't cheap due to a quick 10 pct. drop, but boy do I think people are overreacting. Obviously there will be shocks to supply chains, obviously there will be Companies that'll have a bad year. But how much does 1 year matter? Haven't seen anything to suggest this is anything but temporary. Now, I'm not saying things won't keep going down - who knows, probably lots of momentum guys and milennials that can't stomach the vol - but companies that were already beaten up suddenly seem very attractive if one has a longer term view. When this round of Chinese flu is over, rates will still be rock bottom.

As for feb 15, CDC estimates 29 mio. people in the US have been ill with influenza. 13 mio. have been to a physician. 280.000 have been hospitalized, and at least 16.000 have died: https://twitter.com/dr_rwt/status/1232959423989112832/photo/1

Very much seems like a case of high uncertainty, low risk.
The comparison to influenza is total bull. It's not about how many people the virus end killing. It's the economic impact. Simply put, the flu does not shut down supply chains. Unless you get a season of something resembling the 1918 Spanish Flu, the systems we have in place work very well in dealing with the flu and the economic disruption is basically non-existent despite a human cost that is surprisingly high in this day and age.

The coronavirus, despite having killed not that many people seems to have had a much, much greater economic impact. The profit warning from BUD yesterday was HUGE. A lot of companies are still mum of the effects. But if BUD is not an outlier then Q1 and Q2 earnings are gonna be a shitshow.

I also agree with what others are saying that things were pretty expensive and the economy not very robust so the virus may have just been the spark for a selloff. Look at what treasuries were doing for a while now while the stock market was whistling its way ever higher. You couldn't square the two. The bond market was flashing red and the stock market didn't have a care in the world. One of them had to be wrong. I'm just sorry that I didn't buy S&P puts when I was thinking about it a couple of weeks ago.

Additionally, from trading patterns it looks like we have indexing working in reverse now, taking things down indiscriminately. There's a line in Ford v Ferrari were the car starts going really fast and a guy goes like "This is where the uninitiated tend to soil themselves.". If you've never seen a 1000 point drop in your life it's really scary stuff when it happens. If you've never seen a 1000 point drop in your like and you see 3 in a week well... it's soiling time. This is stock market education.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: kab60 on February 28, 2020, 04:23:50 AM
Obviously the market as a whole isn't cheap due to a quick 10 pct. drop, but boy do I think people are overreacting. Obviously there will be shocks to supply chains, obviously there will be Companies that'll have a bad year. But how much does 1 year matter? Haven't seen anything to suggest this is anything but temporary. Now, I'm not saying things won't keep going down - who knows, probably lots of momentum guys and milennials that can't stomach the vol - but companies that were already beaten up suddenly seem very attractive if one has a longer term view. When this round of Chinese flu is over, rates will still be rock bottom.

As for feb 15, CDC estimates 29 mio. people in the US have been ill with influenza. 13 mio. have been to a physician. 280.000 have been hospitalized, and at least 16.000 have died: https://twitter.com/dr_rwt/status/1232959423989112832/photo/1

Very much seems like a case of high uncertainty, low risk.
The comparison to influenza is total bull. It's not about how many people the virus end killing. It's the economic impact. Simply put, the flu does not shut down supply chains. Unless you get a season of something resembling the 1918 Spanish Flu, the systems we have in place work very well in dealing with the flu and the economic disruption is basically non-existent despite a human cost that is surprisingly high in this day and age.

The coronavirus, despite having killed not that many people seems to have had a much, much greater economic impact. The profit warning from BUD yesterday was HUGE. A lot of companies are still mum of the effects. But if BUD is not an outlier then Q1 and Q2 earnings are gonna be a shitshow.

I also agree with what others are saying that things were pretty expensive and the economy not very robust so the virus may have just been the spark for a selloff. Look at what treasuries were doing for a while now while the stock market was whistling its way ever higher. You couldn't square the two. The bond market was flashing red and the stock market didn't have a care in the world. One of them had to be wrong. I'm just sorry that I didn't buy S&P puts when I was thinking about it a couple of weeks ago.

Additionally, from trading patterns it looks like we have indexing working in reverse now, taking things down indiscriminately. There's a line in Ford v Ferrari were the car starts going really fast and a guy goes like "This is where the uninitiated tend to soil themselves.". If you've never seen a 1000 point drop in your life it's really scary stuff when it happens. If you've never seen a 1000 point drop in your like and you see 3 in a week well... it's soiling time. This is stock market education.
Of course the economic impact is bigger, there's a high degree of uncertainty and fear, but it already seems to be getting somewhat under control in China. I haven't seen anything to suggest this is anything more than a temporary issue, which can obviously be bad if you're overlevered, dependent on capital markets etc, but I also think the baby is being thrown out with the bathwater.

Sure, the backdrop is probably ripe for some heavy, broadbased selling, but few here are probably buying indexes.

Again, anecdotal, but here is the latest comment from Rolls-Royce:

East said the coronavirus may hurt air-traffic growth in the near term but that long-term trends most affecting Rolls-Royce remain intact. Some suppliers in China did briefly close, but Rolls was able to rely on existing inventory, and those are now back up and running, he said.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: rb on February 28, 2020, 04:59:02 AM
Sure, if the underlying fundamentals are ok then it's a temporary issue. Things suck for you for a couple of quarters then things get back to normal. Maybe there's even a great quarter as pent up demand gets released.

But, if the underlying economic fundamentals aren't as great as it's suggested by the bond market then this can become a more permanent issue. Say that things didn't look so rosy before. Now you get the shock and decide that maybe this is a good time to cut some capacity. You were thinking about it before and now you got the shove. Then it becomes permanent and a bigger economic issue that has nothing to do with the outbreak anymore.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: stahleyp on February 28, 2020, 05:06:40 AM
https://www.forbes.com/2007/05/17/bernanke-subprime-speech-markets-equity-cx_er_0516markets02.html#2dcf4b5b10e1


https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/25/kudlow-white-house-coronavirus-117402

Subprime was "contained."

Virus is "contained."

Highly levered companies, black swan events, history doesn't repeat but it does rhyme.

Like I said, the main cause of concern is not the virus itself. It's the knock on effects. The world is so highly connected now that I think fear can be (doesn't mean will) be a bigger factor than it has in the past. I'm mostly invested but do have some cash and Berkshire.

The past several years, it's been easy it is for poorly rated companies to issue debt, PIK and all of that (which I only have a very (very) basic understanding of). I'm not saying it's going to get super ugly but I can see how it could.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: watsa_is_a_randian_hero on February 28, 2020, 05:39:17 AM
boy do I think people are overreacting

this is capturing the sentiment of most out there...but is missing the point

people were UNDER reacting in Jan.  this is not "just the flu".  there is no herd immunity from natural antibodies or vaccine, and its about 100x more lethal when you look at conditional probabilities.   

That said, the real point is, the market was extremely inflated, and now there are no buyers.  The market had kept chugging along under momentum, but all value players had stopped being net buyers long ago.  The only buyers were momentum.  And all it took was something to change the direction of the momentum, and there are literally no buyers now.  The market will continue falling until it reaches a level enticing rational buyers to step in, and there was previously a big gap between current market prices and rational prices. 

As of last Friday, the market was trading at top 2-3 percentile of dividend yields; now it has regressed to 51st percentile in 5 days.  Is it unreasonable to think it could fall to 90th percentile (implying another 10% down from here)?  97th percentile (28% down from here)?  With momentum traders now on the other side, this thing will keep falling until it is clear coronavirus is contained. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: kab60 on February 28, 2020, 05:40:13 AM
Sure, if the underlying fundamentals are ok then it's a temporary issue. Things suck for you for a couple of quarters then things get back to normal. Maybe there's even a great quarter as pent up demand gets released.

But, if the underlying economic fundamentals aren't as great as it's suggested by the bond market then this can become a more permanent issue. Say that things didn't look so rosy before. Now you get the shock and decide that maybe this is a good time to cut some capacity. You were thinking about it before and now you got the shove. Then it becomes permanent and a bigger economic issue that has nothing to do with the outbreak anymore.
Sure, makes sense. Just have no Idea about the probability of that. And the many macro bear cases almost always seem rational. Dalio sad cash was trash the other day, no? I mean, he seems like a pompous douche, but I'd venture he makes more informed macro forecasts than I and he looks like a complete idiot now. Seems easier to identify good businesses selling for cheap that can weather most of what will get thrown at it. But sure, not much is cheap.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Kaegi2011 on February 28, 2020, 06:15:12 AM
Right or wrong, people are panicking.  Try to find a face mask anywhere these days.   A lot of my friends, who are highly educated, are stockpiling stuff like there's no tomorrow (as if that's going to really save them if shit hits the fan...)  ;)

That's where the impact and the cascading impacts could be quite severe.  People forget that manufacturing was already close to (if not in) a minor recession prior to the virus.  A few delays along the chain that takes out the inventory buffer could be quite painful.  And if anyone comparing to China and saying that it'll (only) be a 3-4 week disruption is being delusional.  No self respecting, gun wielding 'Murican is going to not leave their home for weeks at a time if there's a real outbreak.  Let's get real.

Regardless if the market was overvalued or why, the market is going to be unpredictable because the outcomes are unpredictable.  IMHO anyone who thinks they know how this will play out with any level of certainty is not thinking through all the possibilities. 

Edit - Also, if you look at govvies yields it's pretty clear that it's not just the equities markets that is concerned. 

If you haven't refi'ed in a while, time to look it up!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Castanza on February 28, 2020, 06:40:44 AM
If we never heard of the common flu and it suddenly came on the scene society would be reacting the same. The flu vaccine is only 50-60% effective for healthy individuals 18-64. So even if we get an effective vaccine for C-19 it's probably not going to be much better than that.

Unpopular opinion: And I don't want to make light of individuals deaths or sickness as it's a serious thing. But the sooner this thing hits countries like the US the quicker we understand the real numbers and the real risks.

 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: rkbabang on February 28, 2020, 07:28:54 AM
The Snopes article says this:
Although Pence did state that “smoking doesn’t kill,” he buttressed his argument by saying that only a third of smokers died of smoking-related illnesses

I wonder if he'd play Russian Roulette with 2 rounds in the cylinder?  Only a 1/3rd chance of dying.

Anyway.  I'm sure he's the best guy for the job.

(https://static.boredpanda.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/mike-pence-do-not-touch-nasa-space-flight-hardware-florida-fb__700-png.jpg)

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jul/08/mike-pence-touches-nasa-equipment-right-next-to-do-not-touch-sign
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Liberty on February 28, 2020, 07:29:43 AM
Health officials, scientists must get statements vetted by White House:  https://www.msnbc.com/deadline-white-house/watch/report-white-house-locking-down-messaging-from-federal-government-on-coronavirus-79563845972

Doesn't the Chinese government also do this?

So Pence becomes the filter through which information must flow, and Pence is the guy who penned an article stating that tobacco doesn't really kill people as claimed by the left wing media.

This is what a competent response looks like:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/28/trump-chief-of-staff-mulvaney-suggests-people-ignore-coronavirus-news-to-calm-markets.html

Quote
White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney on Friday suggested that Americans should ignore media reports about the coronavirus amid fears of the deadly disease spreading into the U.S.

Mulvaney, who also heads the Office of Management and Budget, also said that there will “probably” be school closures and transportation issues due to the impact of the virus.

Mulvaney claimed that the media has only started paying close attention to the coronavirus because “they think this is going to be what brings down” President Trump.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jurgis on February 28, 2020, 07:59:18 AM
Health officials, scientists must get statements vetted by White House:  https://www.msnbc.com/deadline-white-house/watch/report-white-house-locking-down-messaging-from-federal-government-on-coronavirus-79563845972

Doesn't the Chinese government also do this?

So Pence becomes the filter through which information must flow, and Pence is the guy who penned an article stating that tobacco doesn't really kill people as claimed by the left wing media.

This is what a competent response looks like:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/28/trump-chief-of-staff-mulvaney-suggests-people-ignore-coronavirus-news-to-calm-markets.html

Quote
White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney on Friday suggested that Americans should ignore media reports about the coronavirus amid fears of the deadly disease spreading into the U.S.

Mulvaney, who also heads the Office of Management and Budget, also said that there will “probably” be school closures and transportation issues due to the impact of the virus.

Mulvaney claimed that the media has only started paying close attention to the coronavirus because “they think this is going to be what brings down” President Trump.

Coronavirus is not the reason to panic. More deadly is brain rot virus that has taken over the world with numerous cases reported in Washington, D.C., Moscow, and other capitals. What's worst, it's spreading over Internet! The only way to be safe is to unplug your ......................................................................................
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: stahleyp on February 28, 2020, 08:05:49 AM
Health officials, scientists must get statements vetted by White House:  https://www.msnbc.com/deadline-white-house/watch/report-white-house-locking-down-messaging-from-federal-government-on-coronavirus-79563845972

Doesn't the Chinese government also do this?

So Pence becomes the filter through which information must flow, and Pence is the guy who penned an article stating that tobacco doesn't really kill people as claimed by the left wing media.

This is what a competent response looks like:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/28/trump-chief-of-staff-mulvaney-suggests-people-ignore-coronavirus-news-to-calm-markets.html

Quote
White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney on Friday suggested that Americans should ignore media reports about the coronavirus amid fears of the deadly disease spreading into the U.S.

Mulvaney, who also heads the Office of Management and Budget, also said that there will “probably” be school closures and transportation issues due to the impact of the virus.

Mulvaney claimed that the media has only started paying close attention to the coronavirus because “they think this is going to be what brings down” President Trump.

Coronavirus is not the reason to panic. More deadly is brain rot virus that has taken over the world with numerous cases reported in Washington, D.C., Moscow, and other capitals. What's worst, it's spreading over Internet! The only way to be safe is to unplug your ......................................................................................

An even more deadly version is in CA and NYC from my understanding. ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spekulatius on February 28, 2020, 09:21:24 AM
Interesting factoids:
$PLWN ( funeral plot in LI) up 40% today, apparently expecting business to pick up.

$RGA - Life re-insurance company down substantially the last few days. They do not like the low interest rates and apparently Mr Market expects an increase in mortality as well.

No position in either one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sleepydragon on February 28, 2020, 09:26:28 AM
Interesting factoids:
$PLWN ( funeral plot in LI) up 40% today, apparently expecting business to pick up.

$RGA - Life re-insurance company down substantially the last few days. They do not like the low interest rates and apparently Mr Market expects an increase in mortality as well.

No position in either one.

I can’t even login to my 401k account anymore.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gregmal on February 28, 2020, 09:28:53 AM
Lot of misinformation and stupidity out there

https://nypost.com/2020/02/27/americans-are-avoiding-corona-beer-amid-coronavirus-outbreak-survey-finds/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: LC on February 28, 2020, 09:30:58 AM
Another way to think of it is to break it up into its parts: an overall market correction + COVID 19's impact.

A lot of people had expressed concerns about market valuations two,three, four months ago. If COVID 19 didn't exist but we still had a market correction - what prices would be reasonable? Market multiples down from 24x to say 20x?  Then, layer the COVID 19 outbreak on top of that and ask yourself again, what prices seem reasonable?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: oddballstocks on February 28, 2020, 09:32:46 AM
Interesting factoids:
$PLWN ( funeral plot in LI) up 40% today, apparently expecting business to pick up.



My guess is more due to the recent financials floating around.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Viking on February 28, 2020, 11:20:20 AM
Another way to think of it is to break it up into its parts: an overall market correction + COVID 19's impact.

A lot of people had expressed concerns about market valuations two,three, four months ago. If COVID 19 didn't exist but we still had a market correction - what prices would be reasonable? Market multiples down from 24x to say 20x?  Then, layer the COVID 19 outbreak on top of that and ask yourself again, what prices seem reasonable?

I am looking at it from four angles:
1.) market was up 35% from Dec 2018 to Feb 2020. Likely now fairly valued pre-virus.

Now let’s look at the impacts of the virus:
2.) current economic impact to China (GDP): bad and will take time for economic activity to recover; risk to downside (takes longer than a couple of weeks or a month for China to get back to normal).
3.) impact to global supply chain: bad and impact is only now starting to be felt. How many companies in China are still shuttered? How many are back up and supposedly running but experiencing staffing issues? Needless to say it will take some time to ramp up production. Companies outside of China are not issuing new guidance yet because they can’t quantify the issues yet; this will change and downward revisions to earnings and profits are coming in the coming weeks and perhaps months.
4.) economic impact of virus arriving in US in numbers: this will slow economic growth further

I do not think 2, 3 or 4 above are factored much into current stock prices. Needless to say, the next couple of weeks will be key. And this will likely take many months to play out with lots of downward revisions and ‘surprises’. I am now 100% cash. I was able to lock in a 1.5% gain for 2020 (and all my gains from a 10 year bull market). If markets go higher from here i miss some upside. If markets go lower i will be positioned well. May we live in interesting times :-)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Value^2 on February 28, 2020, 11:47:59 AM
Ken Langone: Coronavirus is a scientific challenge, not political issue

https://youtu.be/yWCkviQtu00?t=432
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: stahleyp on February 28, 2020, 11:49:18 AM
Another way to think of it is to break it up into its parts: an overall market correction + COVID 19's impact.

A lot of people had expressed concerns about market valuations two,three, four months ago. If COVID 19 didn't exist but we still had a market correction - what prices would be reasonable? Market multiples down from 24x to say 20x?  Then, layer the COVID 19 outbreak on top of that and ask yourself again, what prices seem reasonable?

I am looking at it from four angles:
1.) market was up 35% from Dec 2018 to Feb 2020. Likely now fairly valued pre-virus.

Now let’s look at the impacts of the virus:
2.) current economic impact to China (GDP): bad and will take time for economic activity to recover; risk to downside (takes longer than a couple of weeks or a month for China to get back to normal).
3.) impact to global supply chain: bad and impact is only now starting to be felt. How many companies in China are still shuttered? How many are back up and supposedly running but experiencing staffing issues? Needless to say it will take some time to ramp up production. Companies outside of China are not issuing new guidance yet because they can’t quantify the issues yet; this will change and downward revisions to earnings and profits are coming in the coming weeks and perhaps months.
4.) economic impact of virus arriving in US in numbers: this will slow economic growth further

I do not think 2, 3 or 4 above are factored much into current stock prices. Needless to say, the next couple of weeks will be key. And this will likely take many months to play out with lots of downward revisions and ‘surprises’. I am now 100% cash. I was able to lock in a 1.5% gain for 2020 (and all my gains from a 10 year bull market). If markets go higher from here i miss some upside. If markets go lower i will be positioned well. May we live in interesting times :-)

I don't think I would be 100% cash even if I were pretty certain we were walking into a second Great Depression.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: boilermaker75 on February 28, 2020, 12:19:32 PM
Lot of misinformation and stupidity out there

https://nypost.com/2020/02/27/americans-are-avoiding-corona-beer-amid-coronavirus-outbreak-survey-finds/

I'm a beer drinker and I don't buy it. Not because of the virus, but because it is not very good.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: LC on February 28, 2020, 12:26:49 PM
Lot of misinformation and stupidity out there

https://nypost.com/2020/02/27/americans-are-avoiding-corona-beer-amid-coronavirus-outbreak-survey-finds/

I'm a beer drinker and I don't buy it. Not because of the virus, but because it is not very good.
Just got back from the store and wanted to buy corona for the irony factor, but went with wine instead. Gotta be prepared! ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Liberty on February 28, 2020, 01:03:27 PM
Piece by Bill Gates:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2003762

Meanwhile, Pence has already started the clamp down:

https://thehill.com/homenews/media/485147-rep-garamendi-nih-director-fauci-cancelled-on-five-sunday-talk-shows-after
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spekulatius on February 28, 2020, 01:11:05 PM
Anyone has any idea ( other than the 3:45PM ramp) why the index ended positive for the day, let me know.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: thepupil on February 28, 2020, 01:19:59 PM
The fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain strong,” Powell said in a four-sentence statement Friday. “However, the coronavirus poses evolving risks to economic activity. The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring developments and their implications for the economic outlook. We will use our tools and act as appropriate to support the economy.”

Powell Put.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: stahleyp on February 28, 2020, 02:02:30 PM
The fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain strong,” Powell said in a four-sentence statement Friday. “However, the coronavirus poses evolving risks to economic activity. The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring developments and their implications for the economic outlook. We will use our tools and act as appropriate to support the economy.”

Powell Put.

If the market doesn't rally on Monday, this could get pretty ugly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spekulatius on February 28, 2020, 02:46:33 PM
The fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain strong,” Powell said in a four-sentence statement Friday. “However, the coronavirus poses evolving risks to economic activity. The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring developments and their implications for the economic outlook. We will use our tools and act as appropriate to support the economy.”

Powell Put.

Reminds me of TARP in 2008. We really are in trouble.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Cardboard on February 28, 2020, 02:56:33 PM
This is all about duration and depth of this panic.

If you can judge this you are a lot better than I am but, that is really the key to determine if it is a garden variety correction or something much worst that contaminates loan process and generates another financial crisis.

A smarter man than I am who has 40+ years in the market said to never, ever buy anything (long) after an extended up market stretch. He was right once again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sharad on February 28, 2020, 03:39:33 PM
Anyone has any idea ( other than the 3:45PM ramp) why the index ended positive for the day, let me know.

I don't know why it went up, but I bought VIX put options (one week expiration at 3:50pm), seeing that Biden likely wins South Carolina, the White House/Federal Reserve/ECB/CDC/EU will announce some form of action (whether it actually can do anything is an entirely different thing), and the VIX was nearly 50 today, and though I see more downside for the next little while, even in October 2008, the market had massive gyrations up and down, and moments where things settled for a few days.

In any event, I suspect if you had a lot of short positions, then you couldn't go all-short into the weekend. People likely waited until the last minute to cover some positions or hedge out some short positions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: LC on February 28, 2020, 03:41:51 PM
This is all about duration and depth of this panic.

If you can judge this you are a lot better than I am but, that is really the key to determine if it is a garden variety correction or something much worst that contaminates loan process and generates another financial crisis.

A smarter man than I am who has 40+ years in the market said to never, ever buy anything (long) after an extended up market stretch. He was right once again.
Any chance he told you what timeframe constitutes an extended up market stretch?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sharad on February 28, 2020, 03:47:36 PM
This is all about duration and depth of this panic.

If you can judge this you are a lot better than I am but, that is really the key to determine if it is a garden variety correction or something much worst that contaminates loan process and generates another financial crisis.

A smarter man than I am who has 40+ years in the market said to never, ever buy anything (long) after an extended up market stretch. He was right once again.
Any chance he told you what timeframe constitutes an extended up market stretch?


11 years 10 months and 13 days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 28, 2020, 03:50:00 PM
Trump says that the flu has a higher mortality rate than the coronavirus.  The market should rally now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jurgis on February 28, 2020, 03:59:51 PM
Piece by Bill Gates:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2003762

Go Bill & Melinda!  8)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Liberty on February 28, 2020, 04:54:42 PM
https://twitter.com/mas1banda/status/1233450638765436928?s=21
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gregmal on February 28, 2020, 04:56:36 PM
So, just to understand where people are coming from, and despite the internet muting my tone Ill say in advance that I am not being sarcastic or rhetorical, but... we have a pandemic that may temporarily dislodge tons of very significant economic variables. We just had, arguably one of the most hellacious and sudden market declines in decades, and both a President, who clear as day can not be deemed reliable, nor a media that can be trusted; people are surprised that the Fed is stepping up and willing to take action?

Isn't this what they have continually demonstrated that they will do? In who's interest, besides that of greedy investors, is it to have everything implode?

And again, as I said before, if we are talking valuations, we have a 1.2 10 year. Where should stocks be trading? Lets say you have a 30% cut to corporate earnings this year like some are modeling, ands then a 30-50% rebound the year after, should we be gapping down to 15x? Or is 20-25x depending on the business at least justifiable?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: LC on February 28, 2020, 05:13:20 PM
https://twitter.com/mas1banda/status/1233450638765436928?s=21

Not the only time either.

https://a57.foxnews.com/static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2019/12/931/524/TrumpJentezenprayer1.jpg?ve=1&tl=1

https://www.au.org/sites/default/files/Trump%20and%20prayer%20day.png

https://static.independent.co.uk/s3fs-public/thumbnails/image/2019/11/01/15/trump-prayer-final.jpeg

Thoughts and prayers aren't going to help in a viral pandemic. Hopefully the CDC still has good people working on this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: stahleyp on February 28, 2020, 06:28:09 PM
So, just to understand where people are coming from, and despite the internet muting my tone Ill say in advance that I am not being sarcastic or rhetorical, but... we have a pandemic that may temporarily dislodge tons of very significant economic variables. We just had, arguably one of the most hellacious and sudden market declines in decades, and both a President, who clear as day can not be deemed reliable, nor a media that can be trusted; people are surprised that the Fed is stepping up and willing to take action?

Isn't this what they have continually demonstrated that they will do? In who's interest, besides that of greedy investors, is it to have everything implode?

And again, as I said before, if we are talking valuations, we have a 1.2 10 year. Where should stocks be trading? Lets say you have a 30% cut to corporate earnings this year like some are modeling, ands then a 30-50% rebound the year after, should we be gapping down to 15x? Or is 20-25x depending on the business at least justifiable?

The other issue is political. Sanders gets the nomination. Turns that into the Presidency due to a weak economy. His very anti-business slant and the dual force of higher inflation (student loan forgiveness, free everything) and increasing taxes. So we could very easily see higher inflation, higher taxes and higher interest rates and slower economic growth. An angry public will vote for someone else if the economy hits a pretty hard rough patch.

I'm not saying it's a huge chance of happening but certainly plausible.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: vinod1 on February 28, 2020, 06:34:44 PM
So, just to understand where people are coming from, and despite the internet muting my tone Ill say in advance that I am not being sarcastic or rhetorical, but... we have a pandemic that may temporarily dislodge tons of very significant economic variables. We just had, arguably one of the most hellacious and sudden market declines in decades, and both a President, who clear as day can not be deemed reliable, nor a media that can be trusted; people are surprised that the Fed is stepping up and willing to take action?

Isn't this what they have continually demonstrated that they will do? In who's interest, besides that of greedy investors, is it to have everything implode?

And again, as I said before, if we are talking valuations, we have a 1.2 10 year. Where should stocks be trading? Lets say you have a 30% cut to corporate earnings this year like some are modeling, ands then a 30-50% rebound the year after, should we be gapping down to 15x? Or is 20-25x depending on the business at least justifiable?

+1 Although it would have been more fun to read it in colorful language.

They way I see it, none of this should be really having impact on earnings 5 to 7 years out. As long as we are able to buy something that is going to generate good returns over this period why worry about what happens this year?

I have not bought as many stocks as I have in the last couple of days since Jan 2016. Some of them are based on valuation work that I had done last March and have not updated since, but the price are at such a discount to IV that I do not even need to make an update. Yes, they are at the epicenter of the investor fears. 

If the market tanks say 50% from here, so what. The opportunities in that case would more than make up for any losses.

Vinod
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dalal.Holdings on February 28, 2020, 06:59:14 PM
Exponential growth continues. As I asked a day ago--what happens to $4000 $6000 that compounds at 20% per day? That last dot represents 2/29 cases outside China (2/29 has not even begun in many places yet).

Sauce:
https://systems.jhu.edu/research/public-health/ncov/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dalal.Holdings on February 28, 2020, 07:04:15 PM
Really hope that it gets to you and the most virulent kind.

Despicable, but I imagine given the lax attitude shown on this forum to you, you will be allowed to post as usual.

I wish no ill will to you or your family, but to each their own.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jurgis on February 28, 2020, 07:19:48 PM
I have not bought as many stocks as I have in the last couple of days since Jan 2016. Some of them are based on valuation work that I had done last March and have not updated since, but the price are at such a discount to IV that I do not even need to make an update. Yes, they are at the epicenter of the investor fears. 

I'd be interested to hear what long term compounders are trading cheaper than last March and at substantial discount to IV.  8)
I guess EXPE is but it was cheaper in November and without virus overhang for near term business.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: no_free_lunch on February 28, 2020, 07:27:35 PM
I have still held back from buying. I think it could get a lot worse still and the market at large is still expensive.

I don't even want to speculate on death rates or infection rates, still too many variables but we can focus on what we know. It is almost impossible to contain with a modern open society. You now have MSM starting to back the draconian measures taken in China. If we go down that route it's going to get ugly and perhaps actually predictable from an economic pov. Supply shortages seem very plausible and I don't know what central bankers can do about that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spekulatius on February 28, 2020, 07:43:02 PM
I have not bought as many stocks as I have in the last couple of days since Jan 2016. Some of them are based on valuation work that I had done last March and have not updated since, but the price are at such a discount to IV that I do not even need to make an update. Yes, they are at the epicenter of the investor fears. 

I'd be interested to hear what long term compounders are trading cheaper than last March and at substantial discount to IV.  8)
I guess EXPE is but it was cheaper in November and without virus overhang for near term business.

Me too. Even summer 2019 was cheaper and Dec 2018 was much cheaper. In Addition, we now have a Real problem with the economy that we didn’t have last year. A selloff always offers some bargain, thats true, but it was way more true in Dec 2018.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 28, 2020, 10:06:40 PM
The coronavirus is just a 'hoax':  the "new hoax" from the Democrats.  I wonder if you can guess who said that today.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: kab60 on February 28, 2020, 11:37:26 PM
I have not bought as many stocks as I have in the last couple of days since Jan 2016. Some of them are based on valuation work that I had done last March and have not updated since, but the price are at such a discount to IV that I do not even need to make an update. Yes, they are at the epicenter of the investor fears. 

I'd be interested to hear what long term compounders are trading cheaper than last March and at substantial discount to IV.  8)
I guess EXPE is but it was cheaper in November and without virus overhang for near term business.

Me too. Even summer 2019 was cheaper and Dec 2018 was much cheaper. In Addition, we now have a Real problem with the economy that we didn’t have last year. A selloff always offers some bargain, thats true, but it was way more true in Dec 2018.
Linamar! Auto parts, yada yada, cyclical, yada yada, but their growth is real. And you get in at an almost 50 pct discount to BV while their capital allocation is to go for plus 20 pct returns. Obviously, their ends markets are pretty bad, but even then you get a fat yield and 5-6xPE. And they tend to come out stronger through a downturn. Hasn't traded here since 2013 and has reinvested almost every penny in the business or bought back shares (talking my book, 18 pct position).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: writser on February 29, 2020, 01:32:19 AM
Really hope that it gets to you and the most virulent kind.

This forum has degenerated over the past few years but this is a new low. I would say vitriol like this is inexcusable but that’s up to Parsad. At the very least you should delete that post and apologize like a decent human being.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Hjorth on February 29, 2020, 01:56:32 AM
kab60,

Have you had the time to follow how this has evolved & has been handled by the public authorities over the last few days here in Denmark? [I'm appalled and in some kind of state of shock because of it.]

For info to all : We now have three confirmed cases here in tiny Denmark, which all track back to Northern Italy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: finetrader on February 29, 2020, 04:40:52 AM
https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/covid-19-china-epicurve-1.5479983
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Cigarbutt on February 29, 2020, 04:41:57 AM
I’ve found that on-line discussions can skid (suddenly in the course of a few exchanges or gradually over time) and then it becomes a lose-lose.

It appears that artificial intelligence may eventually help by instituting a stupid bot that would “feel” when a specific exchange or a series of exchanges go in the wrong direction and prevent excesses by introducing generic comments whose function would be to indirectly remind members that they are human beings essentially having a face to face conversation.

Another effective way implies for respected member to directly intervene.

Another effective way implies for ordinary participants to try to steer the discussion in the right direction.


So, there’s lots of 'discussion' about the Coronavirus and its potential impact on markets. Here are 2 scenarios (obviously a spectrum for those who tend to drift rapidly in a binary thinking mode).
#1
If the fundamentals are strong or at least satisfactory, this virus will come to pass (the virus may persist but the sentiment will adjust) and things will get back to ‘normal’. We may get a recession (even a global one) but 2 years from now, this will mainly be a topic for nostalgic discussions and confirmation for buy-and-hold value strategies.
#2
If fundamentals are not so hot (it’s up to the individual to decide that), one may question the possibility of reverse causality here. The markets have become incredibly integrated and the fact that a simple virus originating in a single province in far-away China could have such an impact on global supply chains is food for thought. Many people assume a) that low interest rates justify high valuations and b) that the central put will come to the rescue. These two assumptions have held well in the last 10 to 20 years but these correlations have a poor historical record overall. If the B word applies, the needle may not be the essential element.
---
Humans (genetics, evolution religion, whatever) tend to look for explanations and some complex things are hard to explain but it’s important to think about these issues (framework), if possible ahead of time, ‘cause perspective can be lost in the action. I don’t see how the virus, by itself, should force you to take your eyes off the ball.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spekulatius on February 29, 2020, 05:23:39 AM
I have not bought as many stocks as I have in the last couple of days since Jan 2016. Some of them are based on valuation work that I had done last March and have not updated since, but the price are at such a discount to IV that I do not even need to make an update. Yes, they are at the epicenter of the investor fears. 

I'd be interested to hear what long term compounders are trading cheaper than last March and at substantial discount to IV.  8)
I guess EXPE is but it was cheaper in November and without virus overhang for near term business.

Me too. Even summer 2019 was cheaper and Dec 2018 was much cheaper. In Addition, we now have a Real problem with the economy that we didn’t have last year. A selloff always offers some bargain, thats true, but it was way more true in Dec 2018.
Linamar! Auto parts, yada yada, cyclical, yada yada, but their growth is real. And you get in at an almost 50 pct discount to BV while their capital allocation is to go for plus 20 pct returns. Obviously, their ends markets are pretty bad, but even then you get a fat yield and 5-6xPE. And they tend to come out stronger through a downturn. Hasn't traded here since 2013 and has reinvested almost every penny in the business or bought back shares (talking my book, 18 pct position).

I agree on Linamar. Obviously a well run company, in a very tough industry with a bad  near term outlook.

Timing is key in these situations. It is not a buy and hold compounder in a sense that very likely, the bulk of the return owning this will be made in a short period of time, I think. That’s the Problem, value to the shareholder accrues very unevenly. There are lot of stocks like this currently on sale.

The basic problem is that even if these stocks are cheap, they will go down with the Market (if the Market falls) and probably go down even faster. If we get to the point where they stop going down and bad news, then it’s time to buy. Generally, such a moment never comes because value stocks never get cheap enough, relative to market.

The only time I remember is in 2000. I vaguely remember  buying Allstate insurance  in February 2000. I looked at it and told my coworker that it’s darn cheap, Gradeinteilung at way below book, low PE and buying back their own stock like crazy. He was laughing at me, everyone was in tech stocks back then. The Company stocks I was working for was up 500%, while Allstate stock went down.

Then I recall a big kahuna moment in March 2000, when tech stocks started to get destroyed. Allstate also missed earnings that month, but the stock ended up positive on earnings day. Every tech stock on my watch list was bloody red.

I don’t think we are at this point yet with value stocks. Perhaps we will never get back to this point any more with ETF and passive investment driving the bus.

End of rant, I am running out of juice. At some point I will own Linamar, I think. Thanks for posting about it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gregmal on February 29, 2020, 06:28:08 AM
We're at the "cant avoid it" phase where every time you go to a website. pick up a paper or turn on the news it is in your face and that is scary(notice ever since Trump has made the remarks about the media using it to bring him down, CNNs website is reformatted and Corona is the overwhelming topic blasted everywhere? I found that funny). But at some point people should become practical again just like with Ebola a half decade or so ago. Or H1N1. Every 2000 cases or whatever cant translate to 10% selloffs for the market, otherwise we'll be at zero pretty soon with people still alive and an economy that is still producing things and all of a sudden the machine trading will reverse and we'll notice companies with buybacks and dividends are still there and oh yea, maybe even some of the shitty ones too considering they can borrow at low single digit rates.

If you're scared use your brain to find some easy money shorts if your fears play out. PRTY, STNG, AAL, CBL, MAC, LYV, RCL, and others. Except, oh, these things are all down 20-50% already because of this, and you cant say you arent aware of the snapback potential because we've got a decade plus of instances to fall back on where that happens to be the end result, just about every time.

I am starting to agree with some of the Democrats though. I think there should be some sort of lifelines established for small businesses. The real coronavirus effects will obviously be on travel and retail. Its a key cog to the economy, but at the same time, not in theory all that different in terms of deriving an assistance program, than what we saw in agriculture during the trade war.


Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: rb on February 29, 2020, 06:53:37 AM
I am starting to agree with some of the Democrats though. I think there should be some sort of lifelines established for small businesses. The real coronavirus effects will obviously be on travel and retail. Its a key cog to the economy, but at the same time, not in theory all that different in terms of deriving an assistance program, than what we saw in agriculture during the trade war.
I've been wresting with the idea for a while. But I'm not so sure travel related small (and even larger) businesses will be affected. My thinking goes that if people are cancelling their European and other overseas vacations because there are cases at their destinations or because they're afraid to share a tube with 400 other people they may instead stay stateside and go on a vacation here.

Instead of not going on vacation at all, they may get in their car, do a day of driving and spend time at a destination that never saw a Chinese person. It's a lot safer that way. If it actually turns out this way, there may be a bumper year for domestic travel related businesses.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spekulatius on February 29, 2020, 07:01:49 AM
Fascinating story about the 1918 flu epidemic. It finally explains many details, - the fact that this flu was first mild, and the a second second wave much more severe killed many more people, why it is called ‘Spanish Flue’ (nothing to do with its origin) and how it may have shaped history. It’s an awesome piece of journalism:
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/journal-plague-year-180965222/ (https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/journal-plague-year-180965222/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: EliG on February 29, 2020, 07:05:05 AM
Can't have confirmed cases if you refuse to test for them.

https://www.reddit.com/r/nyc/comments/fayko1/my_covid19_story_brooklyn/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Liberty on February 29, 2020, 07:12:02 AM
Too early to tell with precision, but I wonder what the impact of China’s high air pollution levels and high smoking levels (esp. men) have on complication probability for a pulmonary disease, and whether places without those negative cofactors can do significantly better.

https://twitter.com/libertyrpf/status/1233769248209678336?s=21
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 29, 2020, 07:29:53 AM
Can't have confirmed cases if you refuse to test for them.

https://www.reddit.com/r/nyc/comments/fayko1/my_covid19_story_brooklyn/

Over the past week, there were only 200 test kits issued for all of California.  For a population of 40 million people.  New York has the same problem.

If you don't look, you don't find cases, it's just that simple.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 29, 2020, 07:42:55 AM
It took 11 days to diagnose her with COVID-19 after she checked herself into the Vacaville hospital (later transferred to UC Davis).

That's a lot of hospital personnel exposed to her for 11 days without a quarantine.  And what about the contact she had with the community before checking herself in?


Doctors at the University of California, Davis Medical Center, where the patient is being treated, said testing was delayed for nearly a week because the patient didn’t fit restrictive federal criteria, which limits tests only to symptomatic patients who recently traveled to China.

“Upon admission, our team asked public health officials if this case could be COVID-19,” UC Davis said in a statement. UC Davis officials said because neither the California Department of Public Health nor Sacramento County could test for the virus, they asked the CDC to do so. But, the officials said, “since the patient did not fit the existing CDC criteria for COVID-19, a test was not immediately administered.”


https://www.propublica.org/article/cdc-coronavirus-covid-19-test
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 29, 2020, 07:47:33 AM
There are other ways to expand the country’s testing capacity. Beyond the CDC and state labs, hospitals are also able to develop their own tests for diseases like COVID-19 and internally validate their effectiveness, with some oversight from the federal Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. But because the CDC declared the virus a public health emergency, it triggered a set of federal rules that raises the bar for all tests, including those devised by local hospitals.

So now, hospitals must validate their tests with the FDA — even if they copied the CDC protocol exactly. Hospital lab directors say the FDA validation process is onerous and is wasting precious time when they could be testing in their local communities.


https://www.propublica.org/article/cdc-coronavirus-covid-19-test
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Castanza on February 29, 2020, 07:59:06 AM
Too early to tell with precision, but I wonder what the impact of China’s high air pollution levels and high smoking levels (esp. men) have on complication probability for a pulmonary disease, and whether places without those negative cofactors can do significantly better.

https://twitter.com/libertyrpf/status/1233769248209678336?s=21

That’s a pretty interesting perspective.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-72000-covid-19-patients-finds-23-death-rate

“Less deadly than SARS but more transmissible.”

“Most cases are mild”

For the most part, the only individuals dying from this are ones who are already critically ill or have some type of a respiratory or possibly cardiovascular issues.


Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gregmal on February 29, 2020, 08:00:19 AM
Too early to tell with precision, but I wonder what the impact of China’s high air pollution levels and high smoking levels (esp. men) have on complication probability for a pulmonary disease, and whether places without those negative cofactors can do significantly better.

https://twitter.com/libertyrpf/status/1233769248209678336?s=21

Interesting, but the more interesting tweet I found was a couple below posting a link to this.

https://www.stlouisfed.org/~/media/files/pdfs/community-development/research-reports/pandemic_flu_report.pdf

Guess what happened next in the 20's?

But again, I can see how it is human and market nature to always assume the worst and then work backwards. As a historian myself, my application of understanding in situations like this, has always been to bet against the worst case scenario. If nothing else, you have the entire populations of politicians and bankers and experts working on your side. Similarly, how many people, even in a scenario like 2008, bet on failure and ended up losing? Getting squeezed out of shorts. Having insolvent counter parties? Seeing the Fed take actions that wiped out their bets? People like Peter Schiff who "called it" and still lost 80% that year. People who bought at the highs in 2007 and held tight in fact, did better than most of the doomsdayers.

The other arm of analysis, is, how far should this drag things down. People have mentioned a liquidity crisis, but as long as the Fed is where it is, I dont see that. Further, company profitability is not being zapped to 0, so couple this with the insanely low rates, and that debt markets certainly arent "closing". Demand in fact, should increase for issues from qualified borrowers, especially if the bond guys deem an economic seize up to be temporary. Basically just a bridge loan. If you are a shitty E&P or mining company, sure, but I'd gander 95% of S&P companies would have zero problem issuing debt.

So if we can eliminate liquidity induced plummet, then we have what? Just a recession to worry about. Is it possible we see Great Depression type stuff. I suppose, but probably not. Quantify what a temporary recession should do to the broader market... maybe comparable to something in the 70's or early 90s... but, most of those were greatly enhanced by energy/oil related issues and inflation, neither of which are really on the horizon here.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_stock_market_crashes_and_bear_markets

Which one prior haven't we recovered from? Most were really just temporary shocks, similar to this, and exacerbated by program trading.

Further, at least here, plenty of investors prior to February, were cautious or paring down their exposure because of "valuation" concerns... in November, December, January, etc. We can call the recent rise a "blow off top", but I think thats silly considering that a 10% rise over a half year stretch isn't really a blow off top, nor did it take us anywhere that extreme compared to market levels back in 2018 or 2019. From late 2017 S&P ~2650. So from that point to today that "market" has blown off a whopping 5% annually? An 8% return would take us back to roughly were we were in January. Just because people have been crying about valuation for a long time doesnt mean it was true. Generally speaking, the "broader markets" are relatively efficient. I myself have had plenty of stocks where Ive pounded the table and said the valuation didn't make sense, but was ultimately just WRONG. Same can be said here.

The biggest issue I see right now is that the smart guys cant really calculate/model the impacts here so they're just throwing everything away. Still yet, I haven't really seen any of the fear driven people say where exactly the market should crash to or what levels it should now trade at. In fact, dare I say the value guys now just sound like momentum investors because "the trend is down". Again indicative of the above, and that fear is blinding.




Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: LongHaul on February 29, 2020, 08:37:39 AM
Really hope that it gets to you and the most virulent kind.

This forum has degenerated over the past few years but this is a new low. I would say vitriol like this is inexcusable but that’s up to Parsad. At the very least you should delete that post and apologize like a decent human being.

+1 I agree.  That comment was beyond rude.  Deletion and an apology are the right thing to do. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: cherzeca on February 29, 2020, 09:01:22 AM
Fascinating story about the 1918 flu epidemic. It finally explains many details, - the fact that this flu was first mild, and the a second second wave much more severe killed many more people, why it is called ‘Spanish Flue’ (nothing to do with its origin) and how it may have shaped history. It’s an awesome piece of journalism:
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/journal-plague-year-180965222/ (https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/journal-plague-year-180965222/)

1918 was pre-penicillin and pre-genomic sequencing.   but of course since the US no longer makes penicillin, one might think we are now post-penicillin
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jurgis on February 29, 2020, 09:01:57 AM
I am starting to agree with some of the Democrats though. I think there should be some sort of lifelines established for small businesses. The real coronavirus effects will obviously be on travel and retail. Its a key cog to the economy, but at the same time, not in theory all that different in terms of deriving an assistance program, than what we saw in agriculture during the trade war.
I've been wresting with the idea for a while. But I'm not so sure travel related small (and even larger) businesses will be affected. My thinking goes that if people are cancelling their European and other overseas vacations because there are cases at their destinations or because they're afraid to share a tube with 400 other people they may instead stay stateside and go on a vacation here.

Instead of not going on vacation at all, they may get in their car, do a day of driving and spend time at a destination that never saw a Chinese person. It's a lot safer that way. If it actually turns out this way, there may be a bumper year for domestic travel related businesses.

Anecdotally, I have friend who is going on a cruise  ::). Also have a friend who's going to GDC 2020.

OTOH, there was a scheduled international company-wide event that got cancelled - no travel.

I was going to China in May. Haven't cancelled yet. Airlines have cancelled flights to end-of-March only, so I'm waiting for extension of the cancellation to get full money back. Also to see what's China travel advisory level is by the end of March ( https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/traveladvisories/china-travel-advisory.html ). Likely won't travel.

Have couple potential international trips in July... we'll see how things go by then.

None of these trips will be replaced by domestic travel. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: bizaro86 on February 29, 2020, 09:05:11 AM
I am starting to agree with some of the Democrats though. I think there should be some sort of lifelines established for small businesses. The real coronavirus effects will obviously be on travel and retail. Its a key cog to the economy, but at the same time, not in theory all that different in terms of deriving an assistance program, than what we saw in agriculture during the trade war.
I've been wresting with the idea for a while. But I'm not so sure travel related small (and even larger) businesses will be affected. My thinking goes that if people are cancelling their European and other overseas vacations because there are cases at their destinations or because they're afraid to share a tube with 400 other people they may instead stay stateside and go on a vacation here.

Instead of not going on vacation at all, they may get in their car, do a day of driving and spend time at a destination that never saw a Chinese person. It's a lot safer that way. If it actually turns out this way, there may be a bumper year for domestic travel related businesses.

I own a small travel related business. While my business is very seasonal, my bookings are down 90% this week compared to the same week last year. And my net bookings are zero, as cancellations (most specifically reference coronavirus) have outweighed new bookings. My business is focused, however, on west coast gateway cities and business travel, which are probably the most affected areas. I agree a rural B&B in a pastoral location may see a benefit, but I think it's more likely people just stay home.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: bizaro86 on February 29, 2020, 09:07:56 AM
I am starting to agree with some of the Democrats though. I think there should be some sort of lifelines established for small businesses. The real coronavirus effects will obviously be on travel and retail. Its a key cog to the economy, but at the same time, not in theory all that different in terms of deriving an assistance program, than what we saw in agriculture during the trade war.
I've been wresting with the idea for a while. But I'm not so sure travel related small (and even larger) businesses will be affected. My thinking goes that if people are cancelling their European and other overseas vacations because there are cases at their destinations or because they're afraid to share a tube with 400 other people they may instead stay stateside and go on a vacation here.

Instead of not going on vacation at all, they may get in their car, do a day of driving and spend time at a destination that never saw a Chinese person. It's a lot safer that way. If it actually turns out this way, there may be a bumper year for domestic travel related businesses.

Anecdotally, I have friend who is going on a cruise  ::). Also have a friend who's going to GDC 2020.

OTOH, there was a scheduled international company-wide event that got cancelled - no travel.

I was going to China in May. Haven't cancelled yet. Airlines have cancelled flights to end-of-March only, so I'm waiting for extension of the cancellation to get full money back. Also to see what's China travel advisory level is by the end of March ( https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/traveladvisories/china-travel-advisory.html ). Likely won't travel.

Have couple potential international trips in July... we'll see how things go by then.

None of these trips will be replaced by domestic travel. :)

GDC has been cancelled after all the big companies pulled out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Kaegi2011 on February 29, 2020, 09:13:12 AM
Really hope that it gets to you and the most virulent kind.

This forum has degenerated over the past few years but this is a new low. I would say vitriol like this is inexcusable but that’s up to Parsad. At the very least you should delete that post and apologize like a decent human being.

+1 I agree.  That comment was beyond rude.  Deletion and an apology are the right thing to do.

+2.  Forums like this where people can discuss and debate, but doing so respectively, are far and few in between.  Let's try to keep it that way. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SharperDingaan on February 29, 2020, 09:34:33 AM
Most investors are just gambling, rationality is way down the list.

Were it easier to borrow stock to short; the headlines of the day would be how great this is!, how much money can be made, and how easily!! The gambler just needs pieces of paper to trade, a liquid market, and a stream of bids. He/she really could care less about the underlying companies that those pieces of paper represent.

But even if you have the means, the investment horizon, you like the stock, and the price is right, why throw out a bid?
Isn't it just better to collectively starve the order book? panic the monetary authorities, panic the gamblers even more, and simply force market makers into an order-balancing daily clear of sizeable blocks at a significant discount? That even Uncle Warren has been offering to buy, if the individual deal is good enough...

The Coronavirus is unfortunate, and sadly, contracting it is almost a given at this point.
What do you think happens when the virus sweeps through US retirement holmes? In an election year?
All those guns, weapons, military muscle ... and it didn't work.

Most would expect the market correction(s) to become a lot worse.
Why buy shares tomorrow, when next week they will very likely be cheaper still?
At best, buy a few options/futures to benefit from volatility ... but the underlying shares themselves? ... why bother?

SD
   


Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gregmal on February 29, 2020, 10:28:35 AM
First US death

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/29/world/coronavirus-news.html

Should take another 1,000 off the futures when they open tomorrow.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Viking on February 29, 2020, 10:46:28 AM
First US death

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/29/world/coronavirus-news.html

Should take another 1,000 off the futures when they open tomorrow.

The key problem for investors right now is ‘headline risk’. Fundamentals are not going to matter for a while.

Everything i am reading right now tells me the US is failing badly in how it is handling this developing crisis. And the key factor in how severe the outbreak gets is how it is handled in the initial stages. This tells me the ‘headlines’ are going to get much worse in the US. And political leadership are going to make it even worse. We may ge at the early stages of a slow moving train wreck....

Equity investors are going to see their resolve severely tested as we see 1,000 point swings (both ways) in the coming weeks and months.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: no_free_lunch on February 29, 2020, 10:54:15 AM
Viking, what country IS handling this well?  In Canada they kept telling us there was nothing to worry about. Then they pivoted to , well maybe there will be disruptions, be ready to self quarantine.  That isn't going to work, too many selfish people.

I have family in health care. They are not prepared, no way.  For small volumes sure, but a mass infection with large numbers needing respiratory help. That is the bigger issue, which is under played by the media. It's the 4 or 5 people for every fatality who survive but need round the clock acute care for an extended period. 

Let's not politicize what is clearly a global phenomenon.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dalal.Holdings on February 29, 2020, 11:00:10 AM
https://www.businessinsider.com/how-much-does-coronavirus-treatment-cost-cdc-health-insurance-2020-2

Quote
Testing for COVID-19 (the disease caused by coronavirus) is free, according to a new report.
But Americans could be stuck paying for other medical-related costs for suspected coronavirus treatment, like a $1,000 hospital stay.

U.S. Healthcare System is a Joke though and that will become so much more apparent to everyone as this unfolds. Americans who don't (or can't) pay the healthcare bills will not get tested/treated and instead spread this in the community compared to just about every other developed country where the cost of healthcare visit is low.

This, along with the revelation of what happens when a marketing guy conman President faces a true crisis, may very well lead to the United States electing its very first socialist president in 2020.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gregmal on February 29, 2020, 11:18:15 AM
First US death

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/29/world/coronavirus-news.html

Should take another 1,000 off the futures when they open tomorrow.

The key problem for investors right now is ‘headline risk’. Fundamentals are not going to matter for a while.

Everything i am reading right now tells me the US is failing badly in how it is handling this developing crisis. And the key factor in how severe the outbreak gets is how it is handled in the initial stages. This tells me the ‘headlines’ are going to get much worse in the US. And political leadership are going to make it even worse. We may ge at the early stages of a slow moving train wreck....

Equity investors are going to see their resolve severely tested as we see 1,000 point swings (both ways) in the coming weeks and months.

True, but is this not one of, if not the biggest argument in favor of active managers and astute capital allocators outperforming?

The saying "fundamentals dont matter" is valid on the way up and on the way down if you are rationalizing cash yielding zilch. But on the way down, how is people not caring about fundamentals not a huge advantage? The worst thing that can happen, when people dont care and fundamentals dont matter, is multiple contraction, however history has plainly shown us that this only really sticks to things that deserved it. IE who suffered long term from 08? Probably only the financials. Everything else went back to normal and received healthy multiples. Here? Its probably retail and travel stuff. Except retail already carries a shitty multiple, unlike say, financials did in 06.

I think if we talk about bias, the big one here is a lot of people who have thought valuations where out of line for a long time see the market crashing and think "I was right, and its about time" and then anchor to that in assessing how much more it "should" go down. But the two are totally unrelated. I mean theres people in that crowd who have thought valuations where out of line since 2013.... Its similar in thought to what I experienced in YE 2018. Everyone I talked to about why the market crash there made sense, at least the ones with semi intelligent rationalizations, gave some kind of derivative spiel about "the Feds been propping things up and oh we were in a bubble all this time", but at the end of the day the market didn't just wake up in November 2018 and go "shit, today we're going to abandon everything thats mattered for the last decade or so and now only consider "this"...thats just not how it works.

Further, as far as spread goes, I am curious to see how many cases are found in warmer weather regions. Typically these are much lower. Which could create opportunities in those areas. Particularly places like Florida and Texas. And then for the rest of us, Spring is 3 weeks away, which may bring on some weather related relief, but who knows. Its not hard to see, if say containment is successful at least until warmer weather, there being a vaccine by October/November of next year. Thats often more time than it takes to generate one for the annual flu.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: kab60 on February 29, 2020, 11:25:01 AM
kab60,

Have you had the time to follow how this has evolved & has been handled by the public authorities over the last few days here in Denmark? [I'm appalled and in some kind of state of shock because of it.]

For info to all : We now have three confirmed cases here in tiny Denmark, which all track back to Northern Italy.
Yeah, I know people at TV2. Obviously suck to be guarantined (well with small kids it might be nice with 2 weeks "off" binge watching Netflix solo and eating takeaway), but I'm not the least worried about Coronavirus. I can see why people are on the sidelines due to knock on effects (supply chain disruption, weak stock market getting Bernie elected - though I think he's needed), hoping to catch a bottom, but the virus seems pretty harmless unless old and weak - like the flu.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Hjorth on February 29, 2020, 11:30:42 AM
https://www.businessinsider.com/how-much-does-coronavirus-treatment-cost-cdc-health-insurance-2020-2 (https://www.businessinsider.com/how-much-does-coronavirus-treatment-cost-cdc-health-insurance-2020-2)

Quote
Testing for COVID-19 (the disease caused by coronavirus) is free, according to a new report.
But Americans could be stuck paying for other medical-related costs for suspected coronavirus treatment, like a $1,000 hospital stay.

... This, along with the revelation of what happens when a marketing guy conman President faces a true crisis, may very well lead to the United States electing its very first socialist president in 2020.

No POTUS sweat here, the task - and the political risk related to it - is already delegated to Mike Pence (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Pence). If things go severely wrong and get out of hand, naturally, he will be to blame & take the fall, as a "failure", "incompetent person" & what do I know [honestly, I don't think my English active vocabulary suffice here] - like for so many other persons before him.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dalal.Holdings on February 29, 2020, 11:41:49 AM
We will learn the true cost of not having socialized healthcare with this crisis. As with a lot of things (e.g. climate change), we are not very good at anticipating and protecting against complex, nonlinear phenomena that pose 2nd and 3rd order effects.

As Churchill said: "Americans will always do the right thing--only after they have tried everything else"

Or Munger: We'll have single payer healthcare as soon as Dems take WH and Congress. Or "America's healthcare system is a disgrace".

Let's see how fattening up the pharmaceutical company bottom lines over the years help us with this black swan. Let's see how much they put into R&D and how long it takes to get treatment/vaccine out. Prepare to be disappointed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: cherzeca on February 29, 2020, 11:46:32 AM
We will learn the true cost of not having socialized healthcare with this crisis. As with a lot of things (e.g. climate change), we are not very good at anticipating and protecting against complex, nonlinear phenomena that pose 2nd and 3rd order effects.

As Churchill said: "Americans will always do the right thing--only after they have tried everything else"

Or Munger: We'll have single payer healthcare as soon as Dems take WH and Congress. Or "America's healthcare system is a disgrace".

Let's see how fattening up the pharmaceutical company bottom lines over the years help us with this black swan. Let's see how much they put into R&D and how long it takes to get treatment/vaccine out. Prepare to be disappointed.

genomic sequencing being done in real time.    https://twitter.com/nextstrain/status/1233073612149678081?s=20
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Liberty on February 29, 2020, 11:48:23 AM
Really hope that it gets to you and the most virulent kind.

If that's not a forum-banning offense, I don't know what is.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: stahleyp on February 29, 2020, 12:02:51 PM
Really hope that it gets to you and the most virulent kind.

If that's not a forum-banning offense, I don't know what is.

I'm not even sure why this was said (I looked through and didn't really see anything harsh to get that kind of response) but yeah, that's not good.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Liberty on February 29, 2020, 12:05:24 PM
Really hope that it gets to you and the most virulent kind.

If that's not a forum-banning offense, I don't know what is.

I'm not even sure why this was said (I looked through and didn't really see anything harsh to get that kind of response) but yeah, that's not good.

He's been insulting people without provocation in a few threads lately, but this is way beyond the pale... don't know what's going on ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: stahleyp on February 29, 2020, 12:05:52 PM
We will learn the true cost of not having socialized healthcare with this crisis. As with a lot of things (e.g. climate change), we are not very good at anticipating and protecting against complex, nonlinear phenomena that pose 2nd and 3rd order effects.

As Churchill said: "Americans will always do the right thing--only after they have tried everything else"

Or Munger: We'll have single payer healthcare as soon as Dems take WH and Congress. Or "America's healthcare system is a disgrace".

Let's see how fattening up the pharmaceutical company bottom lines over the years help us with this black swan. Let's see how much they put into R&D and how long it takes to get treatment/vaccine out. Prepare to be disappointed.

If America finds a cure faster than other countries then perhaps the fattening of the pharmaceutical companies has been worthwhile. Do you think another country (socialized medicine or otherwise) has a better chance?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dalal.Holdings on February 29, 2020, 12:19:17 PM
We will learn the true cost of not having socialized healthcare with this crisis. As with a lot of things (e.g. climate change), we are not very good at anticipating and protecting against complex, nonlinear phenomena that pose 2nd and 3rd order effects.

As Churchill said: "Americans will always do the right thing--only after they have tried everything else"

Or Munger: We'll have single payer healthcare as soon as Dems take WH and Congress. Or "America's healthcare system is a disgrace".

Let's see how fattening up the pharmaceutical company bottom lines over the years help us with this black swan. Let's see how much they put into R&D and how long it takes to get treatment/vaccine out. Prepare to be disappointed.

If America finds a cure faster than other countries then perhaps the fattening of the pharmaceutical companies has been worthwhile. Do you think another country (socialized medicine or otherwise) has a better chance?

Sure there are good actors out there who might deploy capital more favorably, but there are many more co's out there with behavior not too dissimilar to Valeant. They rip off American taxpayers (by overcharging Medicare) and relocate headquarters off shore to some low cost country so they cut down on U.S. tax bill--screwing American taxpayers both ways (Pfizer, et al). Congress (McConnell, et al) make it so Medicare has no power to negotiate drug prices. Mylan used political influence to convince schools to buy $600 epi pens

Abbvie has somehow extended its humira patent in the U.S. (hey, maybe you can be a lucky patient and apply for a "rebate" from Abbvie, still doesn't spare our healthcare system tho)--Europeans didn't indulge them in that though. These co's fatten their bottom lines and then use that capital to do mega mergers (often with an overseas co so they can relocate their HQ to cut U.S. taxes: Pfizer was going to pay $160B for Allergan in 2016--that's money largely reaped from overcharging Americans that would not have gone to R&D but into Allergan equity/debt holder pockets for a tax inversion)--they don't plow it all into R&D. Waste. Waste. Waste.

*If* America finds the cure--there is no evidence that American co's will (not to mention a lot of these are no longer American co's bc they moved out to dodge our taxes)--why is the burden for funding the world's pharma R&D being put on U.S. taxpayers???
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: vinod1 on February 29, 2020, 12:30:52 PM
I have not bought as many stocks as I have in the last couple of days since Jan 2016. Some of them are based on valuation work that I had done last March and have not updated since, but the price are at such a discount to IV that I do not even need to make an update. Yes, they are at the epicenter of the investor fears. 

I'd be interested to hear what long term compounders are trading cheaper than last March and at substantial discount to IV.  8)
I guess EXPE is but it was cheaper in November and without virus overhang for near term business.

Me too. Even summer 2019 was cheaper and Dec 2018 was much cheaper. In Addition, we now have a Real problem with the economy that we didn’t have last year. A selloff always offers some bargain, thats true, but it was way more true in Dec 2018.

I agree Dec 2018 it was much cheaper. It is mostly due to my portfolio allocation. I had sold a bunch of stuff in Nov/Dec of 2019 as the expected return on many of my investments went down to mid single digits and I am sitting on a lot of cash going into this week. I was looking at O&G and other dreadful things to invest and still did not find much.

So last week is a life saver. Nothing new. A bunch of banks that I sold became at least reasonable enough to start adding back. Also bought Booking. Smaller positions in Rolls Royce and Carnival.

Vinod
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Hjorth on February 29, 2020, 12:33:42 PM
We will learn the true cost of not having socialized healthcare with this crisis. As with a lot of things (e.g. climate change), we are not very good at anticipating and protecting against complex, nonlinear phenomena that pose 2nd and 3rd order effects.

As Churchill said: "Americans will always do the right thing--only after they have tried everything else"

Or Munger: We'll have single payer healthcare as soon as Dems take WH and Congress. Or "America's healthcare system is a disgrace".

Let's see how fattening up the pharmaceutical company bottom lines over the years help us with this black swan. Let's see how much they put into R&D and how long it takes to get treatment/vaccine out. Prepare to be disappointed.

Dalal.Holdings,

My point is merely, that every health care system in situations like this will eventually fail, if it's not saturated [by setup & design] by personal integrity, professionalism [professional independence [ <- ? ]] & intellectual honesty.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: vinod1 on February 29, 2020, 12:34:24 PM
I was also holding S&P 500 puts for last 10 weeks or so and sold them on Tuesday for a tiny profit.  Then it promptly doubled in value over next 3 days.

If my timing skills are any indication, you would probably get better opportunities in next couple of days.

Vinod
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: stahleyp on February 29, 2020, 12:44:30 PM
We will learn the true cost of not having socialized healthcare with this crisis. As with a lot of things (e.g. climate change), we are not very good at anticipating and protecting against complex, nonlinear phenomena that pose 2nd and 3rd order effects.

As Churchill said: "Americans will always do the right thing--only after they have tried everything else"

Or Munger: We'll have single payer healthcare as soon as Dems take WH and Congress. Or "America's healthcare system is a disgrace".

Let's see how fattening up the pharmaceutical company bottom lines over the years help us with this black swan. Let's see how much they put into R&D and how long it takes to get treatment/vaccine out. Prepare to be disappointed.

If America finds a cure faster than other countries then perhaps the fattening of the pharmaceutical companies has been worthwhile. Do you think another country (socialized medicine or otherwise) has a better chance?

Sure there are good actors out there who might deploy capital more favorably, but there are many more co's out there with behavior not too dissimilar to Valeant. They rip off American taxpayers (by overcharging Medicare) and relocate headquarters off shore to some low cost country so they cut down on U.S. tax bill--screwing American taxpayers both ways (Pfizer, et al). Congress (McConnell, et al) make it so Medicare has no power to negotiate drug prices. Mylan used political influence to convince schools to buy $600 epi pens

Abbvie has somehow extended its humira patent in the U.S. (hey, maybe you can be a lucky patient and apply for a "rebate" from Abbvie, still doesn't spare our healthcare system tho)--Europeans didn't indulge them in that though. These co's fatten their bottom lines and then use that capital to do mega mergers (often with an overseas co so they can relocate their HQ to cut U.S. taxes: Pfizer was going to pay $160B for Allergan in 2016--that's money largely reaped from overcharging Americans that would not have gone to R&D but into Allergan equity/debt holder pockets for a tax inversion)--they don't plow it all into R&D. Waste. Waste. Waste.

*If* America finds the cure--there is no evidence that American co's will (not to mention a lot of these are no longer American co's bc they moved out to dodge our taxes)--why is the burden for funding the world's pharma R&D being put on U.S. taxpayers???

The burden for world security and r&d is on America's tax payers. Overall, I agree with you. The healthcare system is highly bloated. Insurance is a big waste too. A lot of physicians make surprisingly little (especially when you factor in hours worked, high rates of suicide/depression, etc). I would say that if America pharmaceuticals don't come out with the cure (and I'm not talking about a university), then it'll be perfect fodder for the Sanders of the world to hit them hard (and rightfully so).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: no_free_lunch on February 29, 2020, 12:54:36 PM
On the private/public health-care debate, correct me if I am wrong here but aren't most drugs developed specifically for the US market?  Either by US companies or international companies for the US.   I hear of other countries re-producing drugs but I don't hear of many break-throughs.  It seems self-evident because if my statement was false there would be this huge assortment of free generics and there would be no market for the "evil" pharmaceuticals.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gregmal on February 29, 2020, 01:31:18 PM
Good general info on past "issues".

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-how-the-stock-market-has-performed-during-past-viral-outbreaks-as-chinas-coronavirus-spreads-2020-01-22

Seems like we get one of these every few years. Also seems to have been blown hugely out of proportion due to the unfortunate timing of the Chinese New Year and all travel surrounding that, coupled with the fact that reports are the Chinese government knew about this in December and tried covering it up to prevent hysteria around the festivities.

There would also IMO, be a race amongst all drug companies to come up with something for no reason other than to showcase the necessity for their pricing models as they fund R&D necessary to save the world....or so the pitch Id imagine would go.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Viking on February 29, 2020, 01:35:58 PM
Viking, what country IS handling this well?  In Canada they kept telling us there was nothing to worry about. Then they pivoted to , well maybe there will be disruptions, be ready to self quarantine.  That isn't going to work, too many selfish people.

I have family in health care. They are not prepared, no way.  For small volumes sure, but a mass infection with large numbers needing respiratory help. That is the bigger issue, which is under played by the media. It's the 4 or 5 people for every fatality who survive but need round the clock acute care for an extended period. 

Let's not politicize what is clearly a global phenomenon.

We will find out in the coming months how individual countries are handling the outbreak. My focus on the US is i am coming at this from an investing perspective. If things get ugly in the US then financial markets are going to tumble.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spekulatius on February 29, 2020, 01:43:20 PM
Interesting to note that Hk stocks have held  up reasonably well. I am watching  CK Holdings and other stocks and they are down maybe a fe % with no panic selling at all. Of course they have gotten whacked already due to protests, so maybe they are at a point where the bleeding stops regardless of newsflow, which generally is a very positive sign.

Also, the numbers of new cases is down a lot in the Wuhan epicenter? Maybe the needs is all fake, or the containment efforts of the Chinese are actually working.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Viking on February 29, 2020, 01:43:34 PM
First US death

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/29/world/coronavirus-news.html

Should take another 1,000 off the futures when they open tomorrow.

The key problem for investors right now is ‘headline risk’. Fundamentals are not going to matter for a while.

Everything i am reading right now tells me the US is failing badly in how it is handling this developing crisis. And the key factor in how severe the outbreak gets is how it is handled in the initial stages. This tells me the ‘headlines’ are going to get much worse in the US. And political leadership are going to make it even worse. We may ge at the early stages of a slow moving train wreck....

Equity investors are going to see their resolve severely tested as we see 1,000 point swings (both ways) in the coming weeks and months.

True, but is this not one of, if not the biggest argument in favor of active managers and astute capital allocators outperforming?

The saying "fundamentals dont matter" is valid on the way up and on the way down if you are rationalizing cash yielding zilch. But on the way down, how is people not caring about fundamentals not a huge advantage? The worst thing that can happen, when people dont care and fundamentals dont matter, is multiple contraction, however history has plainly shown us that this only really sticks to things that deserved it. IE who suffered long term from 08? Probably only the financials. Everything else went back to normal and received healthy multiples. Here? Its probably retail and travel stuff. Except retail already carries a shitty multiple, unlike say, financials did in 06.

I think if we talk about bias, the big one here is a lot of people who have thought valuations where out of line for a long time see the market crashing and think "I was right, and its about time" and then anchor to that in assessing how much more it "should" go down. But the two are totally unrelated. I mean theres people in that crowd who have thought valuations where out of line since 2013.... Its similar in thought to what I experienced in YE 2018. Everyone I talked to about why the market crash there made sense, at least the ones with semi intelligent rationalizations, gave some kind of derivative spiel about "the Feds been propping things up and oh we were in a bubble all this time", but at the end of the day the market didn't just wake up in November 2018 and go "shit, today we're going to abandon everything thats mattered for the last decade or so and now only consider "this"...thats just not how it works.

Further, as far as spread goes, I am curious to see how many cases are found in warmer weather regions. Typically these are much lower. Which could create opportunities in those areas. Particularly places like Florida and Texas. And then for the rest of us, Spring is 3 weeks away, which may bring on some weather related relief, but who knows. Its not hard to see, if say containment is successful at least until warmer weather, there being a vaccine by October/November of next year. Thats often more time than it takes to generate one for the annual flu.

I am in the active management boat :-) My goal is not to stay in cash forever. The decision will be:
1.) when to start buying
2.) what stocks
3.) how fast to be more fully invested

Not easy. But i do enjoy the journey (although it is stressful at times)
And the input from this board is a great help as well :-)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spekulatius on February 29, 2020, 01:48:40 PM
Viking, what country IS handling this well?  In Canada they kept telling us there was nothing to worry about. Then they pivoted to , well maybe there will be disruptions, be ready to self quarantine.  That isn't going to work, too many selfish people.

I have family in health care. They are not prepared, no way.  For small volumes sure, but a mass infection with large numbers needing respiratory help. That is the bigger issue, which is under played by the media. It's the 4 or 5 people for every fatality who survive but need round the clock acute care for an extended period. 

Let's not politicize what is clearly a global phenomenon.

We will find out in the coming months how individual countries are handling the outbreak. My focus on the US is i am coming at this from an investing perspective. If things get ugly in the US then financial markets are going to tumble.

The word on the German stock exchange used to be “ if Wall Street gets the flu, Frankfurt gets pneumonia”. In fact, German markets are down more than US markets.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Viking on February 29, 2020, 01:51:09 PM
First US death

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/29/world/coronavirus-news.html

Should take another 1,000 off the futures when they open tomorrow.

The key problem for investors right now is ‘headline risk’. Fundamentals are not going to matter for a while.

Everything i am reading right now tells me the US is failing badly in how it is handling this developing crisis. And the key factor in how severe the outbreak gets is how it is handled in the initial stages. This tells me the ‘headlines’ are going to get much worse in the US. And political leadership are going to make it even worse. We may ge at the early stages of a slow moving train wreck....

Equity investors are going to see their resolve severely tested as we see 1,000 point swings (both ways) in the coming weeks and months.

Here is a recent negative example of ‘headline risk’:

China PMI horror show to trigger Q1 downgrades
https://asiatimes.com/2020/02/china-pmi-horror-show-to-trigger-q1-downgrades/

China reported its lowest purchasing managers’ index (PMI) figures in 15 years as the coronavirus outbreak and the glacial pace of resumption after the Lunar New Year holiday thwarted economic activity.

The data has raised doubts around claims by Beijing about companies making a high rate of work resumption.

This has sent analysts scrambling to rework their quarterly GDP forecasts as the world’s second-largest economy reeled from travel restrictions, supply-chain disruptions and a lethargic resumption of business.

China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index in February plunged to 35.7 from 50 in January. This is the lowest reading since January 2005 when it was first released and even lower than November 2008’s figure of 38.8 during the Global Financial Crisis.

The market had expected a reading of around 46, according to a Reuters poll and this shocking data had analysts recalibrating their numbers.

“The sharp drop in China’s manufacturing PMI in February reinforces our view that the normalization in economic activity will be delayed, as reflected in high-frequency growth trackers,” ANZ economists Raymond Yeung and Zhaopeng Xing said in a note.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Viking on February 29, 2020, 02:17:01 PM
.......
Further, as far as spread goes, I am curious to see how many cases are found in warmer weather regions. Typically these are much lower. Which could create opportunities in those areas. Particularly places like Florida and Texas. And then for the rest of us, Spring is 3 weeks away, which may bring on some weather related relief, but who knows. Its not hard to see, if say containment is successful at least until warmer weather, there being a vaccine by October/November of next year. Thats often more time than it takes to generate one for the annual flu.

Expert: There's a 'million-dollar question' surrounding coronavirus
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-contagious-winter-204159834.html

Other experts have asserted that the virus may simply become a permanent part of illnesses that transpire as a result of cold weather, like the common cold or the flu.

Marc Lipsitch, a Harvard epidemiology professor, told The Atlantic that if the virus continues to spread and be as severe as it is now, “cold and flu season” could become “cold and flu and COVID-19 season.”

Other infectious disease experts echoed a similar sentiment.

"We know respiratory viruses are very seasonal, but not exclusively," William Schaffner, an infectious disease specialist at Vanderbilt University, told CNN. "One would hope that the gradual spring will help this virus recede. We can't be sure of that."

Regardless of whether the coronavirus is likely to be a winter phenomenon or not, "this is going to be with us for some time — it's endemic in human populations and not going to go away without a vaccine," Amesh Adalja, an infectious-disease expert at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, told Business Insider.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Castanza on February 29, 2020, 02:36:33 PM
We will learn the true cost of not having socialized healthcare with this crisis. As with a lot of things (e.g. climate change), we are not very good at anticipating and protecting against complex, nonlinear phenomena that pose 2nd and 3rd order effects.

As Churchill said: "Americans will always do the right thing--only after they have tried everything else"

Or Munger: We'll have single payer healthcare as soon as Dems take WH and Congress. Or "America's healthcare system is a disgrace".

Let's see how fattening up the pharmaceutical company bottom lines over the years help us with this black swan. Let's see how much they put into R&D and how long it takes to get treatment/vaccine out. Prepare to be disappointed.

Dalal.Holdings,

My point is merely, that every health care system in situations like this will eventually fail, if it's not saturated [by setup & design] by personal integrity, professionalism [professional independence [ <- ? ]] & intellectual honesty.
I agree


I doubt there are any healthcare systems designed to handle pandemic type events. I’d imagine if you go to Canada and US hospitals you will see layouts and bed capacities designed for average capacity. There are zero hospitals out there with 6k empty beds...

Also, what country was prepared for this? You can certainly make the argument that the CDC should have had more funding etc. But the fact is countries are dealing with the unknown.

Even if we look at flu vaccines, they are predominantly synthesized from the previous strain. That’s partly why they are only 50% effective for healthy individuals (according to the CDC). A covid-19 vaccine is unlikely to produce better results. Many experts have already said that this is impossible to contain on a GLOBAL scale. So to Dala’s point I think it’s ignorant to blame any individual healthcare system.

On the US system I think the biggest issue is from HMB 1973 when insurance was tied to employers and only employers could claim tax deductions for costs. Add in the lawsuit aspects and your looking at massive cost inflation. Over testing as a result of lawsuit threats is an issue as well. My wife just gave me an example of a a baby she has been working with. It is being kept alive purely by machines. The vowels are completely dead and it has many other developmental issues. It’s been hospitalized for almost 200 days and probably won’t make it much longer. The parents are almost completely absent yet request the best treatment. The baby happens to be blind as well. So the hospital, wanting to avoid lawsuits had to provide corrective surgery to attempt to reverse the blindness. It was probably extremely expensive but if they didn’t, the parents would likely be able to sue on the grounds that they didn’t provide care to the furthest extent.

Healthcare in the US is riddled with this kind of stuff. Anyways that’s far enough off topic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dalal.Holdings on February 29, 2020, 02:44:48 PM

The burden for world security and r&d is on America's tax payers. Overall, I agree with you. The healthcare system is highly bloated. Insurance is a big waste too. A lot of physicians make surprisingly little (especially when you factor in hours worked, high rates of suicide/depression, etc). I would say that if America pharmaceuticals don't come out with the cure (and I'm not talking about a university), then it'll be perfect fodder for the Sanders of the world to hit them hard (and rightfully so).

Boeing, Lockheed and Northrop have remained domiciled in the U.S. though and sell planes/gear abroad and the discount to the gear they sell is not as steep as Pharma discount of U.S. drug prices vs even Canada. So defense co profits are brought back home and they pay U.S. taxes. Compare that to tax inverted pharma co now domiciled in Ireland that Medicare has no power to negotiate with.

If the burden of world security is on America, tell that to the Pres who is asking for NATO members to chip in for their fair share.

Fact is, the gap between America and ROW has narrowed over past 70 years, so the burden for pharma R&D and other stuff should not rest so disproportionately on Americans.

Also, you think that all that excess $$ from ripping of Americans going to drug companies went to more lab benches and scientists? More was probably spent on patent attorneys than scientists (For Abbvie/Humira, it seems like $$ well spent--a great ROI! For patients & society, not so much). I could go on and on, but easier to just stick to Munger's brevity and call the U.S. system a "national disgrace".

Like I said, as far as development of an effective treatment/vaccine rollout for Coronavirus is concerned, prepare to be disappointed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dalal.Holdings on February 29, 2020, 03:48:04 PM
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-29/trump-team-testing-off-the-shelf-drugs-to-cure-coronavirus

Quote
The Trump administration is testing existing “off-the-shelf” drugs to combat the coronavirus, a cabinet official said Saturday...

A national lab in Tennessee recently made “an important discovery” involving existing drugs, Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette said at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Maryland.

“The scientists at our Oak Ridge National Laboratory were able to look at the protein strains and determine -- perhaps, it’s still early -- that we can find some off-the-shelf drugs that can help us not only cure the disease but stop the spread of the infection,” Brouillette said.

Wonder what concoction of drano they'll be recommending to the public.

Quote
In addition to the laboratory tests, Brouillette said he’s harnessing the power of his agency’s “super computers” as well as artificial intelligence capabilities to assist organizations like the Centers for Disease Control and the World Heath Organization to conduct modeling on the virus.

Wow, supercomputers! This will surely help.

This is what happens when Republican rubber stamp "scientists" are put in charge. This one in the famed Trump Dept of Energy, almost as skilled as Rick Perry--must be still looking for that "clean coal" recipe.

Science is the pursuit of truth. With this crisis, these clowns have nowhere left to hide anymore and unfortunately for us, they're in charge. Elections have consequences it turns out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: StubbleJumper on February 29, 2020, 04:06:24 PM
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-29/trump-team-testing-off-the-shelf-drugs-to-cure-coronavirus

Quote
The Trump administration is testing existing “off-the-shelf” drugs to combat the coronavirus, a cabinet official said Saturday...

A national lab in Tennessee recently made “an important discovery” involving existing drugs, Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette said at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Maryland.

“The scientists at our Oak Ridge National Laboratory were able to look at the protein strains and determine -- perhaps, it’s still early -- that we can find some off-the-shelf drugs that can help us not only cure the disease but stop the spread of the infection,” Brouillette said.

Wonder what concoction of drano they'll be recommending to the public.

Quote
In addition to the laboratory tests, Brouillette said he’s harnessing the power of his agency’s “super computers” as well as artificial intelligence capabilities to assist organizations like the Centers for Disease Control and the World Heath Organization to conduct modeling on the virus.

Wow, supercomputers! This will surely help.

This is what happens when Republican rubber stamp "scientists" are put in charge. This one in the famed Trump Dept of Energy, almost as skilled as Rick Perry--must be still looking for that "clean coal" recipe.

Science is the pursuit of truth. With this crisis, these clowns have nowhere left to hide anymore and unfortunately for us, they're in charge. Elections have consequences it turns out.


Well, on Tuesday, PatofthePig drafted a post for us providing a link to a newspaper article that suggested that chloroquine appears to reduce the length and severity of the coronavirus.  I have not read anything else about it since, but it's interesting that a relatively old, off-the-shelf malaria treatment could end up having another use.  Interestingly, it's been off-patent for 50-ish years now, so if it is actually found to be useful, it might be a treatment that is cheap enough for use by the world's poor.

If the US government is trying to pick some low-hanging fruit by testing the efficacy of a broad range of existing medications, I'm all for it.


SJ
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Hjorth on February 29, 2020, 04:09:03 PM
Thank you, Castanza,

I'm just trying to make a very specific point here - here we go :

Please take a look here : There is no spread of the disease in Denmark. (https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/live-tv-pressemoede-efter-tredje-corona-fund-i-danmark [/font)

Please listen to the video pointed at 9:14 as start. [Not many here on CoBF can really understand, what this person is saying here. Among the active CoBF members, I suppose there are only kab60, Aurelius & I]].

Here is the abbreviation of the statement : "Even if three Danes are now contaminated, there is no spread of the disease in Denmark". (You have to take into consideration if I'm "playing" you, which I'm not - why should I?)

The statement was made public by a public servant, called Senior Doctor Anne Hempel Jørgensen, Danish Patient Safety Authority (https://en.stps.dk/en/).

How on earth could that happen today here in Denmark? - It's out in the air, that at least 46 persons are in quarantine here in tiny Denmark? [With no reporting of the outcome of the quarantine right now?]

Who should be in the public line for this? : My Prime Minister, or perhaps my Minister of Health? -It's not going to happen - like in the US - Instead, pick your "prügelknabe" [<- Spekulatius German term], loyal public servant, more or less worn out, ready to get paid for it [to take the fall].


The whole thing simply just stinks to me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: LongHaul on February 29, 2020, 04:12:09 PM
I am starting to agree with some of the Democrats though. I think there should be some sort of lifelines established for small businesses. The real coronavirus effects will obviously be on travel and retail. Its a key cog to the economy, but at the same time, not in theory all that different in terms of deriving an assistance program, than what we saw in agriculture during the trade war.
I've been wresting with the idea for a while. But I'm not so sure travel related small (and even larger) businesses will be affected. My thinking goes that if people are cancelling their European and other overseas vacations because there are cases at their destinations or because they're afraid to share a tube with 400 other people they may instead stay stateside and go on a vacation here.

Instead of not going on vacation at all, they may get in their car, do a day of driving and spend time at a destination that never saw a Chinese person. It's a lot safer that way. If it actually turns out this way, there may be a bumper year for domestic travel related businesses.

I own a small travel related business. While my business is very seasonal, my bookings are down 90% this week compared to the same week last year. And my net bookings are zero, as cancellations (most specifically reference coronavirus) have outweighed new bookings. My business is focused, however, on west coast gateway cities and business travel, which are probably the most affected areas. I agree a rural B&B in a pastoral location may see a benefit, but I think it's more likely people just stay home.

Fascinating. Thanks for posting. 

Do you have thoughts on the cruise industry? or how bad this is vs prior sars, 9/11?
I was looking at the cruise industry but I also read net booking were ZERO for them recently and am having trouble figuring out if they will stay solvent given how long this could last and  if the deposits come down which would use cash.

The 1918 Flu pandemic had 3 waves.  Came and went 3x.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sculpin on February 29, 2020, 04:37:39 PM
What if the market has the demand for oil completely wrong in terms of the Corona virus?? Very interesting thesis that turns the Oil Demand consensus completely on its head....


Summary

There are predictions that global oil demand will drop by 3-million barrels per day because of the Coronavirus contagion. So why is China stocking-up?

In the SARS contagion starting in November 2002, constraints on flying and public transport increased driving, which is much less fuel-efficient.

SARS was controlled by mid-2003, but the disruptions to transport continued until early 2005. China’s oil consumption went up by 11% in 2003 and by 16.5% in 2004.

Extrapolating the China/SARS model for “what-if COVID-19 goes global”,spits-out a number of nine-million barrels per day of extra oil demand in 2020.

Long oil and long offshore E&P.


https://seekingalpha.com/article/4328510-what-china-knows-coronavirus-oil-traders-dont-know
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dalal.Holdings on February 29, 2020, 04:43:34 PM
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-29/trump-team-testing-off-the-shelf-drugs-to-cure-coronavirus

Quote
The Trump administration is testing existing “off-the-shelf” drugs to combat the coronavirus, a cabinet official said Saturday...

A national lab in Tennessee recently made “an important discovery” involving existing drugs, Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette said at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Maryland.

“The scientists at our Oak Ridge National Laboratory were able to look at the protein strains and determine -- perhaps, it’s still early -- that we can find some off-the-shelf drugs that can help us not only cure the disease but stop the spread of the infection,” Brouillette said.

Wonder what concoction of drano they'll be recommending to the public.

Quote
In addition to the laboratory tests, Brouillette said he’s harnessing the power of his agency’s “super computers” as well as artificial intelligence capabilities to assist organizations like the Centers for Disease Control and the World Heath Organization to conduct modeling on the virus.

Wow, supercomputers! This will surely help.

This is what happens when Republican rubber stamp "scientists" are put in charge. This one in the famed Trump Dept of Energy, almost as skilled as Rick Perry--must be still looking for that "clean coal" recipe.

Science is the pursuit of truth. With this crisis, these clowns have nowhere left to hide anymore and unfortunately for us, they're in charge. Elections have consequences it turns out.


Well, on Tuesday, PatofthePig drafted a post for us providing a link to a newspaper article that suggested that chloroquine appears to reduce the length and severity of the coronavirus.  I have not read anything else about it since, but it's interesting that a relatively old, off-the-shelf malaria treatment could end up having another use.  Interestingly, it's been off-patent for 50-ish years now, so if it is actually found to be useful, it might be a treatment that is cheap enough for use by the world's poor.

If the US government is trying to pick some low-hanging fruit by testing the efficacy of a broad range of existing medications, I'm all for it.


SJ

Malaria is a protozoan parasite. Very diff from a virus. I highly doubt an agent effective against malaria would have effect on this. Coronaviruses aren’t new. The chances that there is a common agent out there effective against them that we do not know about is slim. A lot of noise out there.

Strange that Republicans who tout the private sector are relying on gov’t labs to find a cure.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sculpin on February 29, 2020, 04:52:06 PM
What if the market has the demand for oil completely wrong in terms of the Corona virus?? Very interesting thesis that turns the Oil Demand consensus completely on its head....


Summary

There are predictions that global oil demand will drop by 3-million barrels per day because of the Coronavirus contagion. So why is China stocking-up?

In the SARS contagion starting in November 2002, constraints on flying and public transport increased driving, which is much less fuel-efficient.

SARS was controlled by mid-2003, but the disruptions to transport continued until early 2005. China’s oil consumption went up by 11% in 2003 and by 16.5% in 2004.

Extrapolating the China/SARS model for “what-if COVID-19 goes global”,spits-out a number of nine-million barrels per day of extra oil demand in 2020.

Long oil and long offshore E&P.


https://seekingalpha.com/article/4328510-what-china-knows-coronavirus-oil-traders-dont-know

6.2M bbl Global crude draw last week

Thus, globally there's been close to no draws or builds in crude inventories for the past four weeks.

Moreover, preliminary data for the past week indicate that crude stocks in China have actually been declining (20M barrels)!!

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4326853-open-insights-eias-weekly-petroleum-report-02-14-20
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gregmal on February 29, 2020, 04:57:01 PM
What if the market has the demand for oil completely wrong in terms of the Corona virus?? Very interesting thesis that turns the Oil Demand consensus completely on its head....


Summary

There are predictions that global oil demand will drop by 3-million barrels per day because of the Coronavirus contagion. So why is China stocking-up?

In the SARS contagion starting in November 2002, constraints on flying and public transport increased driving, which is much less fuel-efficient.

SARS was controlled by mid-2003, but the disruptions to transport continued until early 2005. China’s oil consumption went up by 11% in 2003 and by 16.5% in 2004.

Extrapolating the China/SARS model for “what-if COVID-19 goes global”,spits-out a number of nine-million barrels per day of extra oil demand in 2020.

Long oil and long offshore E&P.


https://seekingalpha.com/article/4328510-what-china-knows-coronavirus-oil-traders-dont-know

Two takeaways

1) How can this be? Driving and fuel consumption during past crisis periods indicate that people still got on with their lives! They just find other ways to get around

2) The travel industry definitely got hit a lot worse with 9/11 and then SARS a back to back double whammy. And still recovered. Triple whammy if you want to include the market bubble bursting in 2000.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: bizaro86 on February 29, 2020, 06:07:14 PM
I am starting to agree with some of the Democrats though. I think there should be some sort of lifelines established for small businesses. The real coronavirus effects will obviously be on travel and retail. Its a key cog to the economy, but at the same time, not in theory all that different in terms of deriving an assistance program, than what we saw in agriculture during the trade war.
I've been wresting with the idea for a while. But I'm not so sure travel related small (and even larger) businesses will be affected. My thinking goes that if people are cancelling their European and other overseas vacations because there are cases at their destinations or because they're afraid to share a tube with 400 other people they may instead stay stateside and go on a vacation here.

Instead of not going on vacation at all, they may get in their car, do a day of driving and spend time at a destination that never saw a Chinese person. It's a lot safer that way. If it actually turns out this way, there may be a bumper year for domestic travel related businesses.

I own a small travel related business. While my business is very seasonal, my bookings are down 90% this week compared to the same week last year. And my net bookings are zero, as cancellations (most specifically reference coronavirus) have outweighed new bookings. My business is focused, however, on west coast gateway cities and business travel, which are probably the most affected areas. I agree a rural B&B in a pastoral location may see a benefit, but I think it's more likely people just stay home.

Fascinating. Thanks for posting. 

Do you have thoughts on the cruise industry? or how bad this is vs prior sars, 9/11?
I was looking at the cruise industry but I also read net booking were ZERO for them recently and am having trouble figuring out if they will stay solvent given how long this could last and  if the deposits come down which would use cash.

The 1918 Flu pandemic had 3 waves.  Came and went 3x.

I didn't have this business during a past pandemic, so I dont have any good data for comparison. If there are three waves like this with a similar response lasting for months, I won't have this business after this pandemic either. :)

Personally, I think airlines are a better bet than cruise lines. I enjoy a cruise, but they are a health risk at the best of times, and their target market is basically the high risk demographic for this disease. Airplanes have lots of air changes and you dont touch that much stuff. By contrast, cruise ships have a buffet for everyone to sneeze on their hands and then touch the food.

Both have perishable inventory and high fixed costs,  but I feel like air travel bookings will stay stronger than cruises. I also think the pricing is more rational.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spekulatius on February 29, 2020, 06:23:29 PM
Air travel will rebound much faster than cruises, which are often planned many month ahead. Also, a cruise is just a form of vacation for which there are substitutes, but there aren’t really good substitute for air travel.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: james22 on February 29, 2020, 07:14:42 PM
You can certainly make the argument that the CDC should have had more funding etc.

You could make a better argument that the CDC should spend less time advocating against guns, etc. and more time protecting us from infectious diseases.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2014/10/05/ebola-cdc-jobs-tasks-multitasking-thomas-duncan-column/16766801/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: StubbleJumper on February 29, 2020, 08:24:42 PM
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-29/trump-team-testing-off-the-shelf-drugs-to-cure-coronavirus

Quote
The Trump administration is testing existing “off-the-shelf” drugs to combat the coronavirus, a cabinet official said Saturday...

A national lab in Tennessee recently made “an important discovery” involving existing drugs, Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette said at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Maryland.

“The scientists at our Oak Ridge National Laboratory were able to look at the protein strains and determine -- perhaps, it’s still early -- that we can find some off-the-shelf drugs that can help us not only cure the disease but stop the spread of the infection,” Brouillette said.

Wonder what concoction of drano they'll be recommending to the public.

Quote
In addition to the laboratory tests, Brouillette said he’s harnessing the power of his agency’s “super computers” as well as artificial intelligence capabilities to assist organizations like the Centers for Disease Control and the World Heath Organization to conduct modeling on the virus.

Wow, supercomputers! This will surely help.

This is what happens when Republican rubber stamp "scientists" are put in charge. This one in the famed Trump Dept of Energy, almost as skilled as Rick Perry--must be still looking for that "clean coal" recipe.

Science is the pursuit of truth. With this crisis, these clowns have nowhere left to hide anymore and unfortunately for us, they're in charge. Elections have consequences it turns out.


Well, on Tuesday, PatofthePig drafted a post for us providing a link to a newspaper article that suggested that chloroquine appears to reduce the length and severity of the coronavirus.  I have not read anything else about it since, but it's interesting that a relatively old, off-the-shelf malaria treatment could end up having another use.  Interestingly, it's been off-patent for 50-ish years now, so if it is actually found to be useful, it might be a treatment that is cheap enough for use by the world's poor.

If the US government is trying to pick some low-hanging fruit by testing the efficacy of a broad range of existing medications, I'm all for it.


SJ

Malaria is a protozoan parasite. Very diff from a virus. I highly doubt an agent effective against malaria would have effect on this. Coronaviruses aren’t new. The chances that there is a common agent out there effective against them that we do not know about is slim. A lot of noise out there.

Strange that Republicans who tout the private sector are relying on gov’t labs to find a cure.


Of course the chances of finding an existing drug that works effectively against the coronavirus are slim.  But, that doesn't mean that you shouldn't take a look at them.  It's a relatively easy thing to do while other labs are working on a vaccine or antiviral.  One does not preclude the other.

You seem to have a bit of a binary political world view.  Personally, I have never met a republican who did not acknowledge that government has an important role in a broad range of areas, including public health.  I have spent a considerable amount of time with libertarians, and even they acknowledge that there are legitimate functions for government to play.  Maybe you are hanging out with more extreme people than me.


SJ
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dalal.Holdings on February 29, 2020, 08:45:47 PM
You can certainly make the argument that the CDC should have had more funding etc.

You could make a better argument that the CDC should spend less time advocating against guns, etc. and more time protecting us from infectious diseases.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2014/10/05/ebola-cdc-jobs-tasks-multitasking-thomas-duncan-column/16766801/

If you think bringing up how ebola was handled will make this cdc look good, then just lol. This is a clown show in comparison to how ebola was contained. Not enough tests out there by dismantled cdc means people have unknowingly been spreading it. High risk people were denied testing.

Supposedly the province of British Columbia has tested more individuals than all of the U.S. (https://globalnews.ca/news/6610416/bc-covid-19-testing-more-than-united-states-premier/). When your boss calls it “Democrats’ hoax” I guess it must not be that important. Oh, how dare I bring politics into this—when POTUS makes a comment like that, it is totally apolitical and rational.

But hey, it’s just like the EPA-an unnecessary arm of the govt to be dismantled. Serves no public purpose. Let’s put pseudoscientists in charge of it and see what happens.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jgyetzer on February 29, 2020, 08:51:59 PM
I think no matter what the outcome it will not take long now for us to see what the real-world implications are.  The virus is now firmly in the US and will spread quickly.  While the market may respond any which way at any time, we should at least have tangible clues as to how economic and government responses will play out by the end of March.  Could be a setup for opportunity for those willing to observe for just a bit longer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jurgis on February 29, 2020, 09:37:42 PM
I have not bought as many stocks as I have in the last couple of days since Jan 2016. Some of them are based on valuation work that I had done last March and have not updated since, but the price are at such a discount to IV that I do not even need to make an update. Yes, they are at the epicenter of the investor fears. 

I'd be interested to hear what long term compounders are trading cheaper than last March and at substantial discount to IV.  8)
I guess EXPE is but it was cheaper in November and without virus overhang for near term business.

Me too. Even summer 2019 was cheaper and Dec 2018 was much cheaper. In Addition, we now have a Real problem with the economy that we didn’t have last year. A selloff always offers some bargain, thats true, but it was way more true in Dec 2018.

I agree Dec 2018 it was much cheaper. It is mostly due to my portfolio allocation. I had sold a bunch of stuff in Nov/Dec of 2019 as the expected return on many of my investments went down to mid single digits and I am sitting on a lot of cash going into this week. I was looking at O&G and other dreadful things to invest and still did not find much.

So last week is a life saver. Nothing new. A bunch of banks that I sold became at least reasonable enough to start adding back. Also bought Booking. Smaller positions in Rolls Royce and Carnival.

Vinod

Thanks. I bought some JPM and BKNG too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Viking on March 01, 2020, 12:03:32 AM
So much that is not understood about the virus...

14% of Recovered Covid-19 Patients in Guangdong Tested Positive Again
- https://www.caixinglobal.com/2020-02-26/14-of-recovered-covid-19-patients-in-guangdong-tested-positive-again-101520415.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: james22 on March 01, 2020, 01:21:21 AM
You can certainly make the argument that the CDC should have had more funding etc.

You could make a better argument that the CDC should spend less time advocating against guns, etc. and more time protecting us from infectious diseases.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2014/10/05/ebola-cdc-jobs-tasks-multitasking-thomas-duncan-column/16766801/

If you think bringing up how ebola was handled will make this cdc look good, then just lol.

If you think that was the point, LOL.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: rb on March 01, 2020, 03:34:19 AM
We will learn the true cost of not having socialized healthcare with this crisis. As with a lot of things (e.g. climate change), we are not very good at anticipating and protecting against complex, nonlinear phenomena that pose 2nd and 3rd order effects.

As Churchill said: "Americans will always do the right thing--only after they have tried everything else"

Or Munger: We'll have single payer healthcare as soon as Dems take WH and Congress. Or "America's healthcare system is a disgrace".

Let's see how fattening up the pharmaceutical company bottom lines over the years help us with this black swan. Let's see how much they put into R&D and how long it takes to get treatment/vaccine out. Prepare to be disappointed.

If America finds a cure faster than other countries then perhaps the fattening of the pharmaceutical companies has been worthwhile. Do you think another country (socialized medicine or otherwise) has a better chance?
Well during the last Ebola outbreak it was a lab in Winnipeg that developed the vaccine. And a lab in Saskatoon that was created to deal with exactly these types of viruses and has tons of experience with corona viruses (including developing vaccines for them) has a already been working on this for a while. So we'll see...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spekulatius on March 01, 2020, 04:55:44 AM
We will learn the true cost of not having socialized healthcare with this crisis. As with a lot of things (e.g. climate change), we are not very good at anticipating and protecting against complex, nonlinear phenomena that pose 2nd and 3rd order effects.

As Churchill said: "Americans will always do the right thing--only after they have tried everything else"

Or Munger: We'll have single payer healthcare as soon as Dems take WH and Congress. Or "America's healthcare system is a disgrace".

Let's see how fattening up the pharmaceutical company bottom lines over the years help us with this black swan. Let's see how much they put into R&D and how long it takes to get treatment/vaccine out. Prepare to be disappointed.

If America finds a cure faster than other countries then perhaps the fattening of the pharmaceutical companies has been worthwhile. Do you think another country (socialized medicine or otherwise) has a better chance?
Well during the last Ebola outbreak it was a lab in Winnipeg that developed the vaccine. And a lab in Saskatoon that was created to deal with exactly these types of viruses and has tons of experience with corona viruses (including developing vaccines for them) has a already been working on this for a while. So we'll see...

Vaccines are cheap. Not that much money to be made bd a minefield for lawsuits. It’s one of the best return on investment for public health, but not for Pharma or biotech companies. It’s one field where public funding is needed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: clutch on March 01, 2020, 05:03:38 AM
We will learn the true cost of not having socialized healthcare with this crisis. As with a lot of things (e.g. climate change), we are not very good at anticipating and protecting against complex, nonlinear phenomena that pose 2nd and 3rd order effects.

As Churchill said: "Americans will always do the right thing--only after they have tried everything else"

Or Munger: We'll have single payer healthcare as soon as Dems take WH and Congress. Or "America's healthcare system is a disgrace".

Let's see how fattening up the pharmaceutical company bottom lines over the years help us with this black swan. Let's see how much they put into R&D and how long it takes to get treatment/vaccine out. Prepare to be disappointed.

If America finds a cure faster than other countries then perhaps the fattening of the pharmaceutical companies has been worthwhile. Do you think another country (socialized medicine or otherwise) has a better chance?

Yes, China, with the biggest socialized medicine in the world.

(I'm being sarcastic, of course)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: stahleyp on March 01, 2020, 05:31:34 AM

The burden for world security and r&d is on America's tax payers. Overall, I agree with you. The healthcare system is highly bloated. Insurance is a big waste too. A lot of physicians make surprisingly little (especially when you factor in hours worked, high rates of suicide/depression, etc). I would say that if America pharmaceuticals don't come out with the cure (and I'm not talking about a university), then it'll be perfect fodder for the Sanders of the world to hit them hard (and rightfully so).

Boeing, Lockheed and Northrop have remained domiciled in the U.S. though and sell planes/gear abroad and the discount to the gear they sell is not as steep as Pharma discount of U.S. drug prices vs even Canada. So defense co profits are brought back home and they pay U.S. taxes. Compare that to tax inverted pharma co now domiciled in Ireland that Medicare has no power to negotiate with.

If the burden of world security is on America, tell that to the Pres who is asking for NATO members to chip in for their fair share.

Fact is, the gap between America and ROW has narrowed over past 70 years, so the burden for pharma R&D and other stuff should not rest so disproportionately on Americans.

Also, you think that all that excess $$ from ripping of Americans going to drug companies went to more lab benches and scientists? More was probably spent on patent attorneys than scientists (For Abbvie/Humira, it seems like $$ well spent--a great ROI! For patients & society, not so much). I could go on and on, but easier to just stick to Munger's brevity and call the U.S. system a "national disgrace".

Like I said, as far as development of an effective treatment/vaccine rollout for Coronavirus is concerned, prepare to be disappointed.

Fair points.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dalal.Holdings on March 01, 2020, 05:40:44 AM
We will learn the true cost of not having socialized healthcare with this crisis. As with a lot of things (e.g. climate change), we are not very good at anticipating and protecting against complex, nonlinear phenomena that pose 2nd and 3rd order effects.

As Churchill said: "Americans will always do the right thing--only after they have tried everything else"

Or Munger: We'll have single payer healthcare as soon as Dems take WH and Congress. Or "America's healthcare system is a disgrace".

Let's see how fattening up the pharmaceutical company bottom lines over the years help us with this black swan. Let's see how much they put into R&D and how long it takes to get treatment/vaccine out. Prepare to be disappointed.

If America finds a cure faster than other countries then perhaps the fattening of the pharmaceutical companies has been worthwhile. Do you think another country (socialized medicine or otherwise) has a better chance?
Well during the last Ebola outbreak it was a lab in Winnipeg that developed the vaccine. And a lab in Saskatoon that was created to deal with exactly these types of viruses and has tons of experience with corona viruses (including developing vaccines for them) has a already been working on this for a while. So we'll see...

Vaccines are cheap. Not that much money to be made bd a minefield for lawsuits. It’s one of the best return on investment for public health, but not for Pharma or biotech companies. It’s one field where public funding is needed.

Not necessarily. GSK set to make $2B in sales on Shingrix, a vaccine for a very target demographic. Vaccines can be very lucrative, esp in a case like this where just about everyone will want one.

Vaccines are also probably the most bang for your buck thing our healthcare system does -- a great man once said "an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure", so it's probably ok if they cost a bit (an individual only requires 1-2x shots with them unlike the recurring revenue treatments like humira earn on individual patients).

Even the ebola vaccine took years for rollout (which would have been late without containment). Anyone who has ever looked at companies in drug development knows -- best to temper expectations with respect to drug approval and rollout. Developing new drugs is much easier said than done.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gregmal on March 01, 2020, 07:42:17 AM
A little more anecdotal stuff

My sister and a bunch of friends had recently planned a trip to Spain. This weekend, she contacted me asking if her trip got cancelled if should would be able to fly up and visit me here in NJ. Curiously I asked why it was cancelled. She said it wasn't actually cancelled but her friends were debating moving it back a month or two from the original mid March date. Why? Not because they were scared of getting the virus, but because they didn't want to risk dealing with any quarantine. Most of them, if the consensus is to cancel and reschedule a couple months out, have decided to make alternative domestic travel plans that week.

Following this, I tell my wife she may be visiting, and the response immediately was, "if she goes to Spain she cant come here"....

I internally LOL'd. Both sides of the coin there. One, not a worry, the other, just likes to worry. But nonetheless real to both of them. Definitely an impact on peoples lives, but at the same time, people still arent going to just sit around and do nothing. They adapt. I made a point to track attendance at some sporting events this weekend. Nothing in the numbers yet that tells me people arent going out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Viking on March 01, 2020, 08:36:38 AM
A little more anecdotal stuff

My sister and a bunch of friends had recently planned a trip to Spain. This weekend, she contacted me asking if her trip got cancelled if should would be able to fly up and visit me here in NJ. Curiously I asked why it was cancelled. She said it wasn't actually cancelled but her friends were debating moving it back a month or two from the original mid March date. Why? Not because they were scared of getting the virus, but because they didn't want to risk dealing with any quarantine. Most of them, if the consensus is to cancel and reschedule a couple months out, have decided to make alternative domestic travel plans that week.

Following this, I tell my wife she may be visiting, and the response immediately was, "if she goes to Spain she cant come here"....

I internally LOL'd. Both sides of the coin there. One, not a worry, the other, just likes to worry. But nonetheless real to both of them. Definitely an impact on peoples lives, but at the same time, people still arent going to just sit around and do nothing. They adapt. I made a point to track attendance at some sporting events this weekend. Nothing in the numbers yet that tells me people arent going out.

Gregmal, i think the general population in the US is still in the Disney stage of this virus; it is a concept but not a reality. People in parts of Washington State are graduating to the next stage; no longer a concept but a reality. When the fear stage hits people start adjusting their behaviour pretty quickly.

We were planning a family trip to Oregon for March spring break. Not anymore. One reason is the risk of getting stranded and quarantined. Another big reason is the insane cost of medical care in the US; uncertainty around medical costs in the US (coming from Canada) should someone need care; yes, we are covered through our provincial health plan for some things and there is travel insurance but this can get quite messy depending on the fine print. Why take the chance is what we are thinking.

My son has a class trip scheduled for April to Oregon for a Shakespear festival (60 people). My guess is it will be cancelled; there is no way the school will be taking on the risk of travel to the US with this blowing up. This is real economic loss and will quickly start to add up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gregmal on March 01, 2020, 08:56:31 AM
Viking, I dont disagree all in all. I am not "raging bull" bullish but rather probably what Id describe as cautiously optimistic that this is a market opportunity and economic overreaction in terms of how things just got hit. Often times, I like to play devils advocate or throw out contrarian perspectives because it helps even out +/-'s and its helpful to view responses and their validity against them. The news flow the past week has been horrendously negative and massively on the side of fear and irrationality. Even the WHO guy basically just said, people arent being rational:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/01/who-chief-on-coronavirus-global-markets-should-calm-down-see-reality.html

I read a MS piece on range of outcomes

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/3-scenarios-for-how-covid-19-plays-out-morgan-stanley-184343790.html

All in all those of us that tread cautiously over the past few months are probably in decent shape. As you've said, the real question is when to hop. I think some of that "when" may be now. GOOG just shed $200 a share and trades at like 16x ex cash. Another 10% off? Im a buyer all day. BRK we dont even need to discuss. Cheap at 230? How bout $200 now? Stuff like that.

The news flow or headline risk I just view as opportunity. I was thinking earlier this week, "hey, I haven't heard from Marc Faber or Nouriel Roubini lately, I wonder what those jackasses are up to". This weekend I found plenty of articles blasting Roubinis calls now for "30-40% declines" and its just like, well, thats how the sausage is made. When things are good you've got Bill Miller and Cathie Wood getting the mic, and when they are bad its guys like Roubini and Dennis Gartman. The trick Ive learned is to try to realize how this works and associate, at least based upon past outcomes, what side you want to be on when such figures and news flow is most prevalent.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: cherzeca on March 01, 2020, 09:25:50 AM
you never "know" when to hop in or out because that requires the benefit of hindsight and god put our eyes in front of our heads.  and mirrors dont seem to work.  so I set a commitment target and then I edge in when things look panicky (25%), and then when things look more panicky I edge in more, then twice more ( I have one more tranche to go).  I may be early, or I may be late and never do my fourth tranche.  and if I dont have a long time horizon, I dont do it at all. but god willing, I have a long time horizon.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Hjorth on March 01, 2020, 09:50:28 AM
Great idea with some anecdotal stuff about everyday life in this topic, Greg,

Gregmal, i think the general population in the US is still in the Disney stage of this virus; it is a concept but not a reality. People in parts of Washington State are graduating to the next stage; no longer a concept but a reality. When the fear stage hits people start adjusting their behaviour pretty quickly. ...

... Why take the chance is what we are thinking. ...

Viking,


If we project that first quoted part above of yours onto the investment sphere, isen't this then to decoded to that we are not near a buttom yet?

- - - o 0 o - - -

Thursday, I had a hypothecial discussion with the Lady of the House about what to do, if we were booked for a weeks stay or so in Milano. We quickly agreed on not to go, ref. my latter quote of yours. And that's no matter the terms in our travel insurance, which I haven't checked, because it's not relevant for us.

Today we discussed it again. We agreed on "mutual veto", no matter what the future about this may bring. [We are in the same bed, thus also in the same boat. [ ; - ) ]] Three cases in Denmark. None in our city [Odense]. Life here continues as usual.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Viking on March 01, 2020, 09:59:15 AM
Greg, i the more i read the more i think the US is just ending the first inning of dealing with this virus. Look at the carnage in markets already.

My province (BC) with a population of 4 million says it has up to now done 2X the number of test versus the entire US with a population of 327 million (as of 2 days ago). 1,012 versus 459. My guess is BC is not testing people who should not be tested.

What this tells me is the US has not been testing incoming people nearly enough. So there is a very high likelihood the virus is now in the US in multiple locations and silently spreading. There was a window to vigorously test and dramatically slow the spread of the virus from late Janaury until now; the US did not do this.

The proof of this starting to morph and really get out of control is when cases are found that cannot be traced to a known source. And these are just starting to pop up in the US. If this thing breaks out in the US in multiple locations then look out below. The US is not ready to deal with a pandemic.

I am sorry if i sound all doom and gloom. But i see no facts (i.e. US has been vigorously screening) to give me comfort that this is going to blow over in the next week or two or even month. All i see are red flags on this issue.

Regarding when to get back in i agree that some stocks are starting to look cheap. And i will likely start to buy if markets continue to sell off.

The problem we have from an investment perspective is we really have no playbook. Yes, there was SARS and a few other outbreaks. But each one is so different it is not really possible to compare. Bottom line is we still do not understand what we are up against with this virus. The news flow will likely get worse from here. The impact on the global economy will get worse. This tells me to be patient. Yes, stocks could be higher in 6 months and the bull market will re-emerge; perhaps this time will be different.

- https://globalnews.ca/news/6610416/bc-covid-19-testing-more-than-united-states-premier/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: cherzeca on March 01, 2020, 10:16:48 AM
"Bottom line is we still do not understand what we are up against with this virus. The news flow will likely get worse from here."

the second sentence is undoubtedly true, but that tells you more about the business of journalism these days than it tells you about the epidemic.

I would humbly suggest that the first sentence is not true.  we know enough about this virus (highly infectious even when asymptomatic and a danger to those compromised by the wages of age and compromised immunity, but not a danger to most people) to know that it will have a geometric rise (perhaps china has completed its geometric rise) and a geometric fall (as these epidemics always dissipate).  when and how quickly the geometric fall will occur is still up for debate, but the mitigation being done by all countries will hasten it. 

the importance of language should be noted.  because this virus has a name (just like we name all hurricanes), we are better engaged to counteract it.  seasonal flus dont have names, and some people opt to not get their flu shots.  we have an enemy if we have a name, and so the better to counteract it, but since we have an enemy when we have a name, the news flow will feed the panic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Viking on March 01, 2020, 10:35:46 AM
Cherzeca, my read is people are not panicking enough right now. 450 tests in all of the US? Really? People need to call their elected representatives and tell them to get the necessary resources allocated to this issue. A month ago!

Why? Look at the devastation when an outbreak hits... northern Italy, Iran, South Korea etc.

There is a reason health professions are sounding the alarm bells. These are smart people and they are genuinely concerned. Unless handled very well, this virus will become an even bigger health/economic problem for all of us. We are all in this together. Does anyone think the US is the global leader in how they are handling this virus? Maybe we need a little panic to get people focussed on doing what’s needed.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: cherzeca on March 01, 2020, 10:52:30 AM
I see the panic and while I understand it I dont give it much long term credence.  every flu season involves a novel virus to a certain extent.  and the incidence of infection is wider in a normal flu season than with covid 19, it is just not reported (effect of language as per prior post).  with death rates, I cant tell but again I think that is part of the effect of our not naming a normal flu season with an insidious name.  part of our panic/fear seems to be conjecture that this started out in a weapons lab or an unregulated unconventional animal market.  seems more ominous and odious that way...builds a more ominous and odious narrative for the press to sell papers...ooops sorry clicks.  and of course, the transition from papers to clicks is viral inducing even when not discussing a virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Viking on March 01, 2020, 11:06:33 AM
For those who think this virus is a short term blip watch this video on U-tube. Gruesome stuff. No sugar coating. One could make the case the media (and the WHO are asleep at the wheel). I am not suggesting what happened in China is going to happen in the US or elsewhere. What I am suggesting is this virus is a serious problem that is still being underestimated. Let's hope I am very wrong.

It has been an absolute tragedy to those who have been affected. It has been consistently underestimated by health authorities. It is only after an outbreak happens that authorities take it seriously. And of course, at that point in time it is too late for those affected.

Coronavirus: How the deadly epidemic sparked a global emergency | Four Corners
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ycrqXJYf1SU

China is at the epicenter. Fortunately, they have been very transparent through the entire process. The information coming out of China is excellent. They are saying things are getting much better so I believe them. Just a short term blip to their population and economy. Should be back to normal soon. (Sarcasm, just to be clear)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: no_free_lunch on March 01, 2020, 11:53:39 AM
I see the panic and while I understand it I dont give it much long term credence.  every flu season involves a novel virus to a certain extent.  and the incidence of infection is wider in a normal flu season than with covid 19, it is just not reported (effect of language as per prior post).  with death rates, I cant tell but again I think that is part of the effect of our not naming a normal flu season with an insidious name.  part of our panic/fear seems to be conjecture that this started out in a weapons lab or an unregulated unconventional animal market.  seems more ominous and odious that way...builds a more ominous and odious narrative for the press to sell papers...ooops sorry clicks.  and of course, the transition from papers to clicks is viral inducing even when not discussing a virus.

It is good to be skeptical but I keep coming back to China's reaction. The country is locked in a cold conflict with the US. Much of that boils down to economic growth. Given that background they aren't going to shut down huge parts of their economy voluntarily for a regular flu season.  The government officials in China made a cold calculation that the cost of letting the virus run wild outweighs the economic hit of mass quarantine. Their actions indicate it is serious.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Liberty on March 01, 2020, 12:11:41 PM
Interesting perspective:

https://twitter.com/elonbachman/status/1234172256898732032?s=21
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Castanza on March 01, 2020, 12:31:44 PM
Interesting perspective:

https://twitter.com/elonbachman/status/1234172256898732032?s=21

By far the most level headed logical approach to this situation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Hjorth on March 01, 2020, 12:48:12 PM
Interesting perspective:

https://twitter.com/elonbachman/status/1234172256898732032?s=21 (https://twitter.com/elonbachman/status/1234172256898732032?s=21)

By far the most level headed logical approach to this situation.

Castanza,

"Level headed" ? - Please look at the "/6" and read it again. Basically all countermeasures to contain this thing are now enabled. It's BS.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Viking on March 01, 2020, 01:08:44 PM
Interesting perspective:

https://twitter.com/elonbachman/status/1234172256898732032?s=21

By far the most level headed logical approach to this situation.

So can someone please square what this ‘level headed’ guy is saying and what we are seeing in China, South Korea, Italy, Iran, Japan? Why are these governments instituting such extreme measures (shutting down whole regions) to contain the virus? Clearly some pretty smart people are taking the other side of the argument that this virus is a serious health problem (and not just another flu).

1.) Barry from Texas@solar2029 46m Replying to  @ElonBachman
“2 months of data is not enough yet... incubation period is 1-2 weeks and disease course is ~1-2 weeks ... even with say 0.2-0.5% CFR - still 2-5x flu with higher transmissibility than flu - also ~5-15% end up hospitalized or in ICU - huge$$$ and strain”

2.) @merlinvestor 2h Replying to @ElonBachman
“Hands down biggest issue is strain on the health system. I have zero faith in china data but in Northern Italy, 1 / 11 goes in ICU.”

3.) Merl investor@merlinvestor 2hReplying to @ElonBachman
“Old people survive this thing *IF* they get proper care.. Lockdowns slow the spread so that health system can keep up. Therefore economic impact of the virus is real.”
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Value^2 on March 01, 2020, 01:20:06 PM
Former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon weighs in on the coronavirus fears causing market selloff on ‘Sunday Morning Futures.’

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2uEgR0RdCyI
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Hjorth on March 01, 2020, 01:25:55 PM
"Former" is the key to relate to that message. [Useless.]
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Castanza on March 01, 2020, 01:46:21 PM
Interesting perspective:

https://twitter.com/elonbachman/status/1234172256898732032?s=21 (https://twitter.com/elonbachman/status/1234172256898732032?s=21)

By far the most level headed logical approach to this situation.

Castanza,

"Level headed" ? - Please look at the "/6" and read it again. Basically all countermeasures to contain this thing are now enabled. It's BS.

Level headed as in not inducing panic. The facts we have are the facts we have. Speculation to the extreme doesn’t solve anything. I’m not saying this guy is 100% correct in his analysis.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spekulatius on March 01, 2020, 01:59:39 PM
Interesting perspective:

https://twitter.com/elonbachman/status/1234172256898732032?s=21 (https://twitter.com/elonbachman/status/1234172256898732032?s=21)

By far the most level headed logical approach to this situation.

Castanza,

"Level headed" ? - Please look at the "/6" and read it again. Basically all countermeasures to contain this thing are now enabled. It's BS.

Level headed as in not inducing panic. The facts we have are the facts we have. Speculation to the extreme doesn’t solve anything. I’m not saying this guy is 100% correct in his analysis.

One thing I have learned in financial markets is that you want to panic before everyone else does. ???
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Castanza on March 01, 2020, 02:15:13 PM
Interesting perspective:

https://twitter.com/elonbachman/status/1234172256898732032?s=21 (https://twitter.com/elonbachman/status/1234172256898732032?s=21)

By far the most level headed logical approach to this situation.

Castanza,

"Level headed" ? - Please look at the "/6" and read it again. Basically all countermeasures to contain this thing are now enabled. It's BS.

Level headed as in not inducing panic. The facts we have are the facts we have. Speculation to the extreme doesn’t solve anything. I’m not saying this guy is 100% correct in his analysis.

One thing I have learned in financial markets is that you want to panic before everyone else does. ???

Lol fair enough. But I would say being prepared is different than panicking.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gregmal on March 01, 2020, 02:34:59 PM
Interesting perspective:

https://twitter.com/elonbachman/status/1234172256898732032?s=21 (https://twitter.com/elonbachman/status/1234172256898732032?s=21)

By far the most level headed logical approach to this situation.

Castanza,

"Level headed" ? - Please look at the "/6" and read it again. Basically all countermeasures to contain this thing are now enabled. It's BS.

Level headed as in not inducing panic. The facts we have are the facts we have. Speculation to the extreme doesn’t solve anything. I’m not saying this guy is 100% correct in his analysis.

One thing I have learned in financial markets is that you want to panic before everyone else does. ???

Lol fair enough. But I would say being prepared is different than panicking.

Well IDK, maybe I’m missing something, but one of the strongest, most resilient markets any of us have ever seen just fell 12% in 5 days. Seems to me like everyone panicked at the same time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: cherzeca on March 01, 2020, 02:48:27 PM
Interesting perspective:

https://twitter.com/elonbachman/status/1234172256898732032?s=21 (https://twitter.com/elonbachman/status/1234172256898732032?s=21)

By far the most level headed logical approach to this situation.

Castanza,

"Level headed" ? - Please look at the "/6" and read it again. Basically all countermeasures to contain this thing are now enabled. It's BS.

Level headed as in not inducing panic. The facts we have are the facts we have. Speculation to the extreme doesn’t solve anything. I’m not saying this guy is 100% correct in his analysis.

One thing I have learned in financial markets is that you want to panic before everyone else does. ???

One thing I have learned in financial markets is that you want to take advantage of people who panic. period.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SharperDingaan on March 01, 2020, 03:03:30 PM
Did you read/research anything here that convinced you to be a buyer on Monday?
Or did you think that you, and probably most others, are most likely just going to stay pat and see how this thing plays out?
Short-term, do nothing. Long-term, no idea

What do you think a homeless person, or a drug addict, is going to do, if/when they get the virus?
Is quarantine going to be effective - or is it more likely that they just wander around spreading the virus until they've either recovered, or died. The US is not a China, you can't quarantine millions on pain of force

With no one buying, and no reason to buy, why should the market not continue to fall?, and materially?  We all think the smart thing is to stay out. And if the smart thing is to stay out ... doesn't that also mean sell down our holdings, go to cash, and do it sooner versus later? Our shares contributing to the daily sell, and driving share prices still lower. And speculators not buying the underlying shares, but buying the options instead - both leveraging their short side gain, and materially reducing their risk? 

Welcome to 2020.

SD

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: cherzeca on March 01, 2020, 03:08:11 PM
Did you read/research anything here that convinced you to be a buyer on Monday?
Or did you think that you, and probably most others, are most likely just going to stay pat and see how this thing plays out?
Short-term, do nothing. Long-term, no idea

What do you think a homeless person, or a drug addict, is going to do, if/when they get the virus?
Is quarantine going to be effective - or is it more likely that they just wander around spreading the virus until they've either recovered, or died. The US is not a China, you can't quarantine millions on pain of force

With no one buying, and no reason to buy, why should the market not continue to fal?, and materially?  We all think the smart thing is to stay out. And if the smart thing is to stay out ... doesn't that almost mean sell down our holdings, go to cash, and do it sooner versus later? Our shares contributing to the daily sell, and driving share prices still lower. And speculators not buying the underlying shares, but buying the options instead - both leveraging their short side gain, and materially reducing their risk? 

Welcome to 2020.

SD

is this directed to any "you" or person in particular, or just a generic homeless person or drug addict?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Hjorth on March 01, 2020, 04:56:59 PM
Did you read/research anything here that convinced you to be a buyer on Monday?
Or did you think that you, and probably most others, are most likely just going to stay pat and see how this thing plays out?
Short-term, do nothing. Long-term, no idea

What do you think a homeless person, or a drug addict, is going to do, if/when they get the virus?
Is quarantine going to be effective - or is it more likely that they just wander around spreading the virus until they've either recovered, or died. The US is not a China, you can't quarantine millions on pain of force

With no one buying, and no reason to buy, why should the market not continue to fal?, and materially?  We all think the smart thing is to stay out. And if the smart thing is to stay out ... doesn't that almost mean sell down our holdings, go to cash, and do it sooner versus later? Our shares contributing to the daily sell, and driving share prices still lower. And speculators not buying the underlying shares, but buying the options instead - both leveraging their short side gain, and materially reducing their risk? 

Welcome to 2020.

SD

is this directed to any "you" or person in particular, or just a generic homeless person or drug addict?

If you have read the posts here on CoBF within the last 10 years from SharperDingaan [I have, - everyone of them], you wouldn't ask.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: cherzeca on March 01, 2020, 05:09:56 PM
oh well, sorry, I dont need any welcomes to 2020 from any "you", including you
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Hjorth on March 01, 2020, 05:28:09 PM
Good for you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gregmal on March 01, 2020, 05:32:06 PM
Ventured out into the wild today. The wife and I took the kids to Prudential Center to see the Jurassic Kingdom Dinosaur Show. I literally would have bet 10-15% of my portfolio on seeing dozens of folks wearing masks. Or signs of something. Shockingly, there was absolutely nothing. Full house. Not one single mask, which is odd because around the NJ/NYC area, you always see the random couple folks with masks, even when theres nothing going on. If I die in a couple days I'll let you guys know. Definitely time to short then.

The idea that people are in Disney phase doesnt really seem to make sense to me. We live in an electronic world. Every single person has a cellphone/computer/tablet. Everyone is glued to their devices. Every place you turn this week, there is coverage, and an overwhelming amount. Does this mean this cant change? Of course not. It very easily could. But to act as if people just haven't gotten wind of it and when they do, the behaviors will change, at least to this point, isn't true, IMHO.

Next up, on the subject of news flow and continued positive tests. Sure, I get it. But at the same time, how much of this is baked in? Do we(although I joke about it) really believe that the market just shed 12% because we have 70 cases here in the US and that the next 100 or 1000 incrementally take off a similar or greater amount? Or has this precipitous decline factored in some of the things folks like Viking have mentioned here about futures waves of further cases? How much? Where is the equilibrium point and where is the pendulum now?

Also, I do think, after reviewing a lot of stuff this weekend, the stuff similar to what Liberty has posted is indeed, on a FACT BASED perspective, the most relevant and rational.

Further, if it is true China knew about this in December and canned it so as not to disrupt the New Year and festivals, dont we have to look at the timelines? Mass exposure occurred first week of January. Chinese cases erupted 2-3 weeks later. The big whammy was all the folks who travelled through there and went back home. Maybe they left weeks 2-3 and now spread first/second week of February. If this is reasonable, the arent we kind of at the turning point of when these things should go ballistic? Massive surges? Except these massive surges are hundred and in a few cases, thousands of folks... "Oh but they arent testing everywhere" is at first sound. But eventually people and symptoms get to see the light of day in most countries. Surely, if there are thousands, or tens of thousands, we'd be starting to hear about them soon? Or, maybe the evidence Liberty linked is possibly a little more accurate than all the fear driven news feeds.

Brings me to my next point. Both good and bad, there is SOOOO much misinformation going around its absurd. People arent drinking Corona beer. People are buying masks. People are supposedly afraid of catching it yet at the same time running to Costcos which are busier than during Thanksgiving week!

Million dollar question to me, if this, on a results basis, is less than or equal to the regular or flu, is this warranted? What are the odds it gets there. Given this broke out in December and you literally had a government make the decision to let tens, maybe even hundreds of thousands of folks congregate and celebrate and gather, for the entire week! incubate the fuck out of this thing, and then go on their way, AND THEN take action, with the resulting fall out in the central location being 75k illnesses and 3k deaths? Do we really see any other nation approaching these numbers, with a multi week head start in terms of knowledge, and all this time to prepare? Again, I dont think so.

Now joking...havent companies like Boeing already determined the cost of a life is like $200K? So right now we should be at like $600M but instead we've lost 6 trillion or whatever and tomorrow stacking up for another 1,000 points down because like two dozen people died over the weekend and the US added 6 cases....please. Fear, panic, chaos. Thats what this is. Is it warranted. Eventually we'll find out. To me, 2018 was significantly scarier because there was no real reason for the crash. I spoke to my brother who is a doctor. He basically said, use common sense. Wash your hands, use sanitizer, avoid close contact with strangers and especially sick people. From an internal perspective, the approach is basically similar to the flu. Funny also, a friend who does a lot of work in genetics basically said the same thing that was said earlier in the thread; no one with a promising career in biotech wants to work on antibiotics or vaccines...the financial incentives just dont make sense. But eventually someone will hang a big enough carrot whenever a large enough problem arises, and wouldn't you know, they figure stuff out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Viking on March 01, 2020, 06:04:48 PM
Greg, well laid out post. My experience is most Americans will only pay attention when it hits the US and in large numbers. Will they change behaviour with what is happening in China, South Korea, Italy or Iran? No.

Perhaps my spidey senses are wrong on this virus and the US escapes with few cases and little impact. If this is the case then investors are getting a fat pitch right now.
—————————-

I read the thread from page 1 (as i actually ignored it for most of the first 20 pages of posts). Crazy the speed at which everything has developed and the scale of the tragedy to those closely impacted. Hat tip to Muscleman for nailing the outbreak; hope the rest of your family is ok :-) I was in living in Toronto when SARS hit. Crazy what rational people start to think when in the eye of the storm.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: nspo on March 01, 2020, 06:28:24 PM
Ventured out into the wild today. The wife and I took the kids to Prudential Center to see the Jurassic Kingdom Dinosaur Show. I literally would have bet 10-15% of my portfolio on seeing dozens of folks wearing masks. Or signs of something. Shockingly, there was absolutely nothing. Full house. Not one single mask, which is odd because around the NJ/NYC area, you always see the random couple folks with masks, even when theres nothing going on. If I die in a couple days I'll let you guys know. Definitely time to short then.

The idea that people are in Disney phase doesnt really seem to make sense to me. We live in an electronic world. Every single person has a cellphone/computer/tablet. Everyone is glued to their devices. Every place you turn this week, there is coverage, and an overwhelming amount. Does this mean this cant change? Of course not. It very easily could. But to act as if people just haven't gotten wind of it and when they do, the behaviors will change, at least to this point, isn't true, IMHO.

Next up, on the subject of news flow and continued positive tests. Sure, I get it. But at the same time, how much of this is baked in? Do we(although I joke about it) really believe that the market just shed 12% because we have 70 cases here in the US and that the next 100 or 1000 incrementally take off a similar or greater amount? Or has this precipitous decline factored in some of the things folks like Viking have mentioned here about futures waves of further cases? How much? Where is the equilibrium point and where is the pendulum now?

Also, I do think, after reviewing a lot of stuff this weekend, the stuff similar to what Liberty has posted is indeed, on a FACT BASED perspective, the most relevant and rational.

Further, if it is true China knew about this in December and canned it so as not to disrupt the New Year and festivals, dont we have to look at the timelines? Mass exposure occurred first week of January. Chinese cases erupted 2-3 weeks later. The big whammy was all the folks who travelled through there and went back home. Maybe they left weeks 2-3 and now spread first/second week of February. If this is reasonable, the arent we kind of at the turning point of when these things should go ballistic? Massive surges? Except these massive surges are hundred and in a few cases, thousands of folks... "Oh but they arent testing everywhere" is at first sound. But eventually people and symptoms get to see the light of day in most countries. Surely, if there are thousands, or tens of thousands, we'd be starting to hear about them soon? Or, maybe the evidence Liberty linked is possibly a little more accurate than all the fear driven news feeds.

Brings me to my next point. Both good and bad, there is SOOOO much misinformation going around its absurd. People arent drinking Corona beer. People are buying masks. People are supposedly afraid of catching it yet at the same time running to Costcos which are busier than during Thanksgiving week!

Million dollar question to me, if this, on a results basis, is less than or equal to the regular or flu, is this warranted? What are the odds it gets there. Given this broke out in December and you literally had a government make the decision to let tens, maybe even hundreds of thousands of folks congregate and celebrate and gather, for the entire week! incubate the fuck out of this thing, and then go on their way, AND THEN take action, with the resulting fall out in the central location being 75k illnesses and 3k deaths? Do we really see any other nation approaching these numbers, with a multi week head start in terms of knowledge, and all this time to prepare? Again, I dont think so.

Now joking...havent companies like Boeing already determined the cost of a life is like $200K? So right now we should be at like $600M but instead we've lost 6 trillion or whatever and tomorrow stacking up for another 1,000 points down because like two dozen people died over the weekend and the US added 6 cases....please. Fear, panic, chaos. Thats what this is. Is it warranted. Eventually we'll find out. To me, 2018 was significantly scarier because there was no real reason for the crash. I spoke to my brother who is a doctor. He basically said, use common sense. Wash your hands, use sanitizer, avoid close contact with strangers and especially sick people. From an internal perspective, the approach is basically similar to the flu. Funny also, a friend who does a lot of work in genetics basically said the same thing that was said earlier in the thread; no one with a promising career in biotech wants to work on antibiotics or vaccines...the financial incentives just dont make sense. But eventually someone will hang a big enough carrot whenever a large enough problem arises, and wouldn't you know, they figure stuff out.

YES
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spekulatius on March 01, 2020, 06:34:39 PM
If one dead is only worth 200k, the 3000 killed in 9/11 would be worth a mere 600M. out in the value the asbestos contaminated WTC ($500M) and the goal cost would not have been more than $1.1B. Yet we spent more than 1000x that much to wage a war against terrorists and protect us against a second one.

I think you are forgetting about 2 things and both are related.
1) reflexivity - it does matter what actually happens, it matter what people think what may happen
2) tail risk - with a new thing like this, nobody knows exactly what it going to happen. So preparing for the worst and hoping for the best actually makes a lot of sense.

We know already that there is going to be an economic slowdown which probably kills profit growth this year if not worse. Otherwise we might have seen a 5% if not higher profit growth, so a 5% hit is entirely rational. If you assume a worse scenario, the current 10%+ correction from the top,  bringing us merely back to last October’s Levels not irrational. So while there is some irrationality about the selloff, there was quite some irrationality about the rise before that, so it’s not clear to me that the market  is overly pessimistic or too optimistic.

The only thing I am sure about is they the volatility is going to go down. If I had to guess, there are going to be nasty surprises in I’d individual stocks that miss their forecast by a mile in the next round of earning releases, which makes it hard to handicap what to buy in affected sectors or those that are economically sensitive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gregmal on March 01, 2020, 06:56:38 PM
Spek, that is kind of where I think the truth lies here. Most of us, and pretty much every media outlet, are chasing the wrong story and mistakenly equating the sell off to the virus. I think its mixed. I agree that perhaps "coronavirus" masked "warranted 5-10% pullback". Now because of the coronavirus=market selloff conflation, we've got a little extra juice behind the selling which is exacerbated by fear. Which simply leads us back to where everything begins and ends when investing, buy good quality companies at reasonable valuations.

On a separate note, I just touched base with a lifelong friend. Lives in Pittsburgh and married a FOB Chinese girl who's entire family lives in Luoyang China. His direct words "her family and basically their entire community was on mandatory lockdown for a couple weeks. Everything was fine and they just got the go ahead to get back to work a couple weeks ago. Business as usual now". More anecdotal stuff, take it as you wish.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jobyts on March 01, 2020, 07:11:16 PM
A message I got from a friend of mine, in our local bay area whatsapp group.

"Friends, looks like people are in a panic shopping. Milk, egg, bread, water etc are out of stock in several Costcos.
 
If u r low in inventory, please restock it"
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: cherzeca on March 01, 2020, 10:13:56 PM
"Everything was fine and they just got the go ahead to get back to work a couple weeks ago. Business as usual now". More anecdotal stuff, take it as you wish."

Shanghai market up 3% today
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: A Dhandho Investor on March 01, 2020, 11:50:25 PM
Here in Belgium, with only 2 confirmed cases, most companies seem to take action since the one week school vacation is over. In our company, people that return from high risk areas like Northern Italy are asked not to return to the office and work from home, even if they don't show symptoms. Also, a financial institution where I have a meeting scheduled next Friday already informed me that the meeting cannot take place at their premises because they want to prevent a lock-down of their activities due to the virus.

Edit: 8 confirmed cases it is.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Liberty on March 02, 2020, 03:48:43 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mYTQI2DvAfo

Prof. Marcel Salathé (GHI, SV) on Coronavirus
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spekulatius on March 02, 2020, 04:20:21 AM
Spek, that is kind of where I think the truth lies here. Most of us, and pretty much every media outlet, are chasing the wrong story and mistakenly equating the sell off to the virus. I think its mixed. I agree that perhaps "coronavirus" masked "warranted 5-10% pullback". Now because of the coronavirus=market selloff conflation, we've got a little extra juice behind the selling which is exacerbated by fear. Which simply leads us back to where everything begins and ends when investing, buy good quality companies at reasonable valuations.

On a separate note, I just touched base with a lifelong friend. Lives in Pittsburgh and married a FOB Chinese girl who's entire family lives in Luoyang China. His direct words "her family and basically their entire community was on mandatory lockdown for a couple weeks. Everything was fine and they just got the go ahead to get back to work a couple weeks ago. Business as usual now". More anecdotal stuff, take it as you wish.

Do you think a lockdown in the US is priced in? I don’t think so.  A couple weeks of lockdown would do considerable damage to the economy, considering how large a percentage of US lives paycheck to paycheck. US is most likely underreported  because so few people have been tested. The hospitals my wife works (nurse in dialysis) in here still don’t have any protocol for this or tests done on as far as she is aware of.

Europe is getting worse though and markets continue to drop. Italy may be past containment with so many new cases and most likely this is going to jump to other countries in the same area.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Viking on March 02, 2020, 10:19:55 AM
If you do not test for the virus you will not find any cases. If you do very few tests you will find very few cases. I think the math is pretty easy to understand. The US is not yet testing for this virus (in any meaningful way). The article below says the US has done a total of 459 tests (the article is dated Feb 28). Now that might be the right number for the US. Perhaps there was no need to test many people in the US during the month of February.

I think in the month of March we will see much more testing buy my guess is it will take a few weeks to ramp up (the testing). As more testing is done we will better understand what the virus is doing in the US but it will likely be a couple of weeks before we have an accurate picture.

The United States badly bungled coronavirus testing—but things may soon improve
By Jon Cohen Feb 28, 2020
- https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/united-states-badly-bungled-coronavirus-testing-things-may-soon-improve

“Speed is critical in the response to COVID-19. So why has the United States been so slow in its attempt to develop reliable diagnostic tests and use them widely?”

“The rollout of a CDC-designed test kit to state and local labs has become a fiasco because it contained a faulty reagent. Labs around the country eager to test more suspected cases—and test them faster—have been unable to do so. No commercial or state labs have the approval to use their own tests.”

“In what is already an infamous snafu, CDC initially refused a request to test a patient in Northern California who turned out to be the first probable COVID19 case without known links to an infected person.”

“The problems have led many to doubt that the official tally of 60 confirmed cases (as of Feb 28) in the United States is accurate. “There have been blunders, and there could be an underlying catastrophe that we don’t know about,” says epidemiologist Michael Mina, who helps run a microbiology testing lab at Brigham and Women’s Hospital. “It’s been very complicated and confusing for everyone with almost no clarity being provided by the CDC.”
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jfan on March 02, 2020, 11:02:31 AM
Having connections within the healthcare industry in Ontario, hospitals will be moving to test all travelers that return outside of Canada with fever or respiratory symptoms for COVID-19 within the upcoming week.

The mortality rate rises after the age of 50 years old with increasing rates with age.

The recommendation is for self isolation for 2 weeks at home in a separate room from other family members.

Its spread is primarily through droplet and a safe distance is about 10 feet.

The acute stress will be primarily at the hospital levels to accommodate the potential influx of people that get sick and require hospitalization for support and figuring out how to test the sheer number of people in an efficient manner.

There certainly will be a huge impact on work productivity especially if the number of people get sick and require isolation. There is some rumor to suggest that the virus is heat labile which will hopeful limit the effect with seasonal change.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: perulv on March 02, 2020, 01:17:00 PM
Just som anecdotal facts/numbers from my country, Norway: There are currently 25 confirmed cases, 7 of them in second largest city (where I live. Around 250k citizens or so.  71 persons tested). The first one was a week or so ago. None critical il or dead. Today in a press conference they said both that they know how the virus transferred to these 7 persons, and that "this is probably the start of an epidemic, and it is unlikely that we will be able to stop it".

My personal experience/impression is that people talk about this, it is on top of the news all the time, but most people are not very concerned or "panicky". Schools are open as usual, but the kids are told to be extra careful with hand hygiene, touching their face, etc. Which imho makes sense, as the virus seem to have very little effect on children. Many companies seem to have a "if you feel slightly ill, work from home!" policy.

I tried to buy hand-sanitizer today, but they were sold out everywhere. At the biggest hospital in the country a doctor was confirmed with corona _after_ having been at work a couple of days after returning from Italy and feeling ill. This is of course a complete fck-up. I addition to all the patiens that might have been exposed to this, a lot of employees in the hospital is now in home-isolation (this is the default thing here. If you are not very ill, you stay at home to avoid spreading it). For most of us, (healthy people below 60 or something like that), this might be the biggest consequence: Not that you get seriously ill by the virus itself, but that so many of societies functions (doctors, bus-driver, person-that-drives-the-food-to-the-store, person-that-fixes-that-power-line-when-a-storm-makes-a-tree-fall-over-it, person-that-fixes-that-atm, and so on) might be severely disrupted by people being in isolation due to the virus.

My feeling, and one should probably not make investment decisions based on feelings, are that this must have devastating consequences for the economy. Who would go on holiday to another country right now, when quarantines and virus-threats can "pop up" at any time? And how many things are disrupted in some way or another, either by the factory in Asia being shut down, or someone in the supply chain, store, or the customer themself being stuck at home? Either because they have the virus, or simply to avoid crowds. As I said, this is just my current thinking, probably not rational. But on the other side, if a city with 250k people, no subway and plenty of space (but closer to Italy though) has 7 infections, how many are really in the US?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Liberty on March 02, 2020, 01:37:05 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OTYfke545vI&feature=emb_logo

"What Actually Happens If You Get Coronavirus?" by AsapScience

Found via @tobi
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Liberty on March 02, 2020, 02:10:42 PM
https://twitter.com/juddlegum/status/1234536619270688768?s=21
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: LC on March 02, 2020, 02:12:17 PM
https://twitter.com/juddlegum/status/1234536619270688768?s=21

Atrocious.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gregmal on March 02, 2020, 02:20:48 PM
Well, for one, thats just one of the minuscule differences between America and China. Chinese say, "sit your ass down, for the good of the country, we are handling this, how we see fit, if you dont like it, tough". In America, we over analysis the fuck out of every single little data point and demand things like total number of tests administered just to further perpetuate headlines and conspiracy theories. As we already saw, is it really in anyone but the medias interest to peddle fear and chaos? As we just saw last week, way too many folks watching too much Walking Dead.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Kaegi2011 on March 02, 2020, 02:28:26 PM
Just som anecdotal facts/numbers from my country, Norway: There are currently 25 confirmed cases, 7 of them in second largest city (where I live. Around 250k citizens or so.  71 persons tested). The first one was a week or so ago. None critical il or dead. Today in a press conference they said both that they know how the virus transferred to these 7 persons, and that "this is probably the start of an epidemic, and it is unlikely that we will be able to stop it".

My personal experience/impression is that people talk about this, it is on top of the news all the time, but most people are not very concerned or "panicky". Schools are open as usual, but the kids are told to be extra careful with hand hygiene, touching their face, etc. Which imho makes sense, as the virus seem to have very little effect on children. Many companies seem to have a "if you feel slightly ill, work from home!" policy.

I tried to buy hand-sanitizer today, but they were sold out everywhere. At the biggest hospital in the country a doctor was confirmed with corona _after_ having been at work a couple of days after returning from Italy and feeling ill. This is of course a complete fck-up. I addition to all the patiens that might have been exposed to this, a lot of employees in the hospital is now in home-isolation (this is the default thing here. If you are not very ill, you stay at home to avoid spreading it). For most of us, (healthy people below 60 or something like that), this might be the biggest consequence: Not that you get seriously ill by the virus itself, but that so many of societies functions (doctors, bus-driver, person-that-drives-the-food-to-the-store, person-that-fixes-that-power-line-when-a-storm-makes-a-tree-fall-over-it, person-that-fixes-that-atm, and so on) might be severely disrupted by people being in isolation due to the virus.

My feeling, and one should probably not make investment decisions based on feelings, are that this must have devastating consequences for the economy. Who would go on holiday to another country right now, when quarantines and virus-threats can "pop up" at any time? And how many things are disrupted in some way or another, either by the factory in Asia being shut down, or someone in the supply chain, store, or the customer themself being stuck at home? Either because they have the virus, or simply to avoid crowds. As I said, this is just my current thinking, probably not rational. But on the other side, if a city with 250k people, no subway and plenty of space (but closer to Italy though) has 7 infections, how many are really in the US?

Thank you for this.  Even if it's anecdotal, it seems like there is a lot of helpful information that's being gathered and shared in your city.

I'm beginning to wonder whether it makes sense to play a bit of a barbell options strategy on this.  It seems that there are two likely scenarios from here:

1) It'll have a major impact on the global economy.  If so, the cascading impact won't be seen/felt for a bit (months?) to come, and downside is potentially quite a bit lower.
2) It's a nothing burger.  World mostly goes on with a few stumbles, but nothing really long lasting nor severe.  However, the central banks aren't going to pull the support all that quickly given that they want to protect downside risk.  So now we have a situation where not much has changed since the beginning of the year, except the 10Y treasuries are like 60bps lower... I'd have to imagine stocks go up a decent amount if for no other reason to close the yield gap...

Assuming an approximation of yield drop similar in earnings yield, that's ~3.5-4x PE expansion, so ~20% upside potential.  ON the downside, we could have earnings and multiple contraction, which I think will be a lot more than 10%...

Looking at SPY Sept 18 options, the 280 puts are ~11.60 mid, and the 340 calls are ~3.50 mid.  Since the puts are super expensive, I can also sell the same expiry puts at 250 strike to recoup ~5.75.  SO if I go long the 280 puts, long 340 calls, and short the 250 puts, that's ~ $9.35 all in cost for the trade.  Breakeven on upside of ~$350 and downside at ~$270, but downside capped at $30 bucks gain. 

Thoughts?  Anyone else think this will be more binary at the tails than in the middle in terms of market outcome? 

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Kaegi2011 on March 02, 2020, 02:31:51 PM
Well, for one, thats just one of the minuscule differences between America and China. Chinese say, "sit your ass down, for the good of the country, we are handling this, how we see fit, if you dont like it, tough". In America, we over analysis the fuck out of every single little data point and demand things like total number of tests administered just to further perpetuate headlines and conspiracy theories. As we already saw, is it really in anyone but the medias interest to peddle fear and chaos? As we just saw last week, way too many folks watching too much Walking Dead.

Um...  I for one would like to know how the virus is spreading (or not), for my own and my family's health, if for no other reason.  How is this controversial? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: StubbleJumper on March 02, 2020, 02:32:34 PM
https://twitter.com/juddlegum/status/1234536619270688768?s=21

Atrocious.


I'm not sure that I quite understand the fixation on having "correct" and up to date statistics.  What would governments in the US do differently if they had "good" statistics resulting from more prevalent testing? 

So, suppose that there was more testing being done of people who sought medical attention for respiratory disorders and it came back that there were 1,000 positive Covid-19 cases.  If that were true, how many cases would there be that had not sought medical attention because the symptoms were not so severe?  Perhaps it would be 1,000 more that wouldn't show up in the official statistics?  And then what would the US government do with those numbers? 

Look, either this virus can be controlled and we can put the genie back in the bottle, or it cannot be controlled and the genie is on the loose.  If you are in the camp that this thing has already spread so much that the world has lost control of it, then "good" statistics don't strike me as too useful.  If you are not going to impose mandatory quarantines and if you are not going to suspend international travel, what are the remaining levers that governments can pull and how are better statistics actually useful?

I guess that I'm in the camp that the genie is out of the bottle and that it's time to focus on managing a situation which is no longer preventable.  But, maybe I'm alone in that camp?


SJ
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gregmal on March 02, 2020, 02:39:03 PM
Well, for one, thats just one of the minuscule differences between America and China. Chinese say, "sit your ass down, for the good of the country, we are handling this, how we see fit, if you dont like it, tough". In America, we over analysis the fuck out of every single little data point and demand things like total number of tests administered just to further perpetuate headlines and conspiracy theories. As we already saw, is it really in anyone but the medias interest to peddle fear and chaos? As we just saw last week, way too many folks watching too much Walking Dead.

Um...  I for one would like to know how the virus is spreading (or not), for my own and my family's health, if for no other reason.  How is this controversial?

Its not controversial. There are other website that tracks this stuff and plenty of information on cases being updated regularly. There is a difference between that, and say purposely peddling propaganda and fear mongering for no reason other than clicks or hatred of the president. One is useful, the other, serves no purpose. As I pointed out earlier, several of the big left media outlets have entirely reconfigured their websites to play in to these things.

How does the "total tested" column have anything to do with your family's safety lol? If you think its an issue, take precaution. If you dont, do whatever floats your boat. Heck, they could test 50% of the population and tomorrow its meaningless because of spread and transmission. The "coverup" part is whats laughable, and you can clearly see the agenda if you spend 3 minutes looking around that fellows page.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Kaegi2011 on March 02, 2020, 02:42:58 PM

I'm not sure that I quite understand the fixation on having "correct" and up to date statistics.  What would governments in the US do differently if they had "good" statistics resulting from more prevalent testing? 

In my mind it has less to do with what the govt will do as what the citizens should do, now and in the future.  Imagine, if I saw that new infections and deaths were going down, and testing was going up, I would feel far better about traveling with my family (and we have three trips planned for the next three months, two including my parents, who are in their mid/late 60s).  In the absence of information, I'm going to do the safer thing, which is to not travel.  Nothing is worth putting my parents at risk, so it's just not worth it. 

So even if that info isn't immediately useful at this moment, I think it'll be immensely helpful in the not too distant future in terms of helping all of us get on with life. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Kaegi2011 on March 02, 2020, 02:52:08 PM
Is it really in anyone but the medias interest to peddle fear and chaos? As we just saw last week, way too many folks watching too much Walking Dead.

Um...  I for one would like to know how the virus is spreading (or not), for my own and my family's health, if for no other reason.  How is this controversial?

Its not controversial. There are other website that tracks this stuff and plenty of information on cases being updated regularly. There is a difference between that, and say purposely peddling propaganda and fear mongering for no reason other than clicks or hatred of the president. One is useful, the other, serves no purpose. As I pointed out earlier, several of the big left media outlets have entirely reconfigured their websites to play in to these things.

How does the "total tested" column have anything to do with your family's safety lol? If you think its an issue, take precaution. If you dont, do whatever floats your boat. Heck, they could test 50% of the population and tomorrow its meaningless because of spread and transmission. The "coverup" part is whats laughable, and you can clearly see the agenda if you spend 3 minutes looking around that fellows page.

I'm merely responding to your assertion that it's just the media who has an interest in the data (see quote above).  One does not need to have a view of anything political than to want to know the data. 

And yes, if 50% of the people were tested, it would absolutely inform whether I travel (heck, whether I'm even coming in for work!).  It all depends on the numerator.  You kind of have to know the top and bottom number to make any type of conclusion.  Again, not controversial? 

Also, I think it's ironic that you would on one hand complain about the spread conspiracy theories (which I agree with is not ideal) and the media, while on the other hand support the CDC (a branch of the federal govt, whom we should be able to trust the data) in withholding the data.  One or the other...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gregmal on March 02, 2020, 03:06:08 PM
Sometimes you have to manage a situation and it isn't one thing or the other. Much like we saw in 2008-09(just as an example). If you feed the people looking to stir up problems, you will likely cause greater harm than good. If the government misleads people into thinking they are safe when they are not, you cause more harm then good. There is a fine line. It'll never be perfect.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Viking on March 02, 2020, 03:12:59 PM
Well, for one, thats just one of the minuscule differences between America and China. Chinese say, "sit your ass down, for the good of the country, we are handling this, how we see fit, if you dont like it, tough". In America, we over analysis the fuck out of every single little data point and demand things like total number of tests administered just to further perpetuate headlines and conspiracy theories. As we already saw, is it really in anyone but the medias interest to peddle fear and chaos? As we just saw last week, way too many folks watching too much Walking Dead.

Um...  I for one would like to know how the virus is spreading (or not), for my own and my family's health, if for no other reason.  How is this controversial?

Its not controversial. There are other website that tracks this stuff and plenty of information on cases being updated regularly. There is a difference between that, and say purposely peddling propaganda and fear mongering for no reason other than clicks or hatred of the president. One is useful, the other, serves no purpose. As I pointed out earlier, several of the big left media outlets have entirely reconfigured their websites to play in to these things.

How does the "total tested" column have anything to do with your family's safety lol? If you think its an issue, take precaution. If you dont, do whatever floats your boat. Heck, they could test 50% of the population and tomorrow its meaningless because of spread and transmission. The "coverup" part is whats laughable, and you can clearly see the agenda if you spend 3 minutes looking around that fellows page.

Greg, here is a real example. The provincial government where i live (British Columbia) published on the weekend that they had performed well over 1,000 tests to date (and 1,400 total as some people were tested more than once). To provide perspective, they said the US up to that point had performed less than 500. The population of BC is 4.8 million. The population of the US is 328 million.

To put this in perspective, if the US government was testing at the same per capita rate it would be up over 68,000 tests. It had done less than 500.

This informed me of two things.
1.) Our provincial government is testing a shitload more people than the US. That made me feel better about our level of preparedness.
2.) the US has completely missed the boat on stopping the virus from quickly getting established in the country. This is the most important step in the whole ‘deal with the virus’ playbook. WTF?

This then helped me decide to not go to Oregon on vacation in March. It also has resulted in me moving my portfolio to cash (as i think this will likely impact the broader economy in the US in the coming months). Maybe there is no impact to the broader US and global economy; i am comfortable forgoing some return until more is known.

I hope the US continues to publish lots of statistics. Just like i hope Canada and all countries do. Source data will help individuals understand how their governments are doing and hold them more accountable (particularly when they look to be underperforming).

The fact that both sides are going to politicize everything is not a reason to stop the flow of source information. If we are told to trust Donald Trump to do the right thing i think we can all agree that would be another big mistake in trying to manage this virus (and a few have clearly been made already). We all can agree that he is not to be trusted, especially in this situation (and that is not a political statement - we have 3 years of proof).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Kaegi2011 on March 02, 2020, 03:19:54 PM
Sometimes you have to manage a situation and it isn't one thing or the other. Much like we saw in 2008-09(just as an example). If you feed the people looking to stir up problems, you will likely cause greater harm than good. If the government misleads people into thinking they are safe when they are not, you cause more harm then good. There is a fine line. It'll never be perfect.

Have you considered the possibility that conspiracy theories arise due to the lack of information? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gregmal on March 02, 2020, 03:22:06 PM
I agree with the sentiment on Trump. One of my biggest "look out below" apprehensions relates to something similar to last week where this guy goes out there and tries so hard to send the right message, that he becomes completely unreliable and then combines that with further desperate and see through attempts to do the same; ultimately rendering pretty much everything coming from them useless and unreliable. There, in that case, could be bottomless drops as nothing will reassure anyone of anything. However I believe we are a long ways away from that and contrary to the reports, I dont think he and his administration have done anything better or worse than most else have.

I think conspiracy theories can arise from both lack or information, and from having too much information. Often it is easier with too much before dots can be created and linked that otherwise wouldn't exist. Its in fact, a common tactic used by activist short sellers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gregmal on March 02, 2020, 03:29:50 PM
So sure, some people genuinely might want to know data set ABC. However quite a few others, with agendas, ask for ABC. When they dont get it, they cry about withholding info and conspiracy theories. On the other hand if they do get it, it never ends there, it turns to "then what about this?" or "why is that done this way". Many of these "questions" have little objective but to stir the pot and create counterproductive narratives. Just like Mr. Einhorns "why did you stop tracking that on the 10k" question on the Herbalife call.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: StubbleJumper on March 02, 2020, 03:30:38 PM
Well, for one, thats just one of the minuscule differences between America and China. Chinese say, "sit your ass down, for the good of the country, we are handling this, how we see fit, if you dont like it, tough". In America, we over analysis the fuck out of every single little data point and demand things like total number of tests administered just to further perpetuate headlines and conspiracy theories. As we already saw, is it really in anyone but the medias interest to peddle fear and chaos? As we just saw last week, way too many folks watching too much Walking Dead.

Um...  I for one would like to know how the virus is spreading (or not), for my own and my family's health, if for no other reason.  How is this controversial?

Its not controversial. There are other website that tracks this stuff and plenty of information on cases being updated regularly. There is a difference between that, and say purposely peddling propaganda and fear mongering for no reason other than clicks or hatred of the president. One is useful, the other, serves no purpose. As I pointed out earlier, several of the big left media outlets have entirely reconfigured their websites to play in to these things.

How does the "total tested" column have anything to do with your family's safety lol? If you think its an issue, take precaution. If you dont, do whatever floats your boat. Heck, they could test 50% of the population and tomorrow its meaningless because of spread and transmission. The "coverup" part is whats laughable, and you can clearly see the agenda if you spend 3 minutes looking around that fellows page.

Greg, here is a real example. The provincial government where i live (British Columbia) published on the weekend that they had performed well over 1,000 tests to date (and 1,400 total as some people were tested more than once). To provide perspective, they said the US up to that point had performed less than 500. The population of BC is 4.8 million. The population of the US is 328 million.

To put this in perspective, if the US government was testing at the same per capita rate it would be up over 68,000 tests. It had done less than 500.

This informed me of two things.
1.) Our provincial government is testing a shitload more people than the US. That made me feel better about our level of preparedness.
2.) the US has completely missed the boat on stopping the virus from quickly getting established in the country. This is the most important step in the whole ‘deal with the virus’ playbook. WTF?

This then helped me decide to not go to Oregon on vacation in March. It also has resulted in me moving my portfolio to cash (as i think this will likely impact the broader economy in the US in the coming months). Maybe there is no impact to the broader US and global economy; i am comfortable forgoing some return until more is known.

I hope the US continues to publish lots of statistics. Just like i hope Canada and all countries do. Source data will help individuals understand how their governments are doing and hold them more accountable (particularly when they look to be underperforming).

The fact that both sides are going to politicize everything is not a reason to stop the flow of source information. If we are told to trust Donald Trump to do the right thing i think we can all agree that would be another big mistake in trying to manage this virus (and a few have clearly been made already). We all can agree that he is not to be trusted, especially in this situation (and that is not a political statement - we have 3 years of proof).


So, what are your governments *doing* about it?  Yes, they are testing mainly people who are coming forward with respiratory illnesses.  But, has your federal government suspended travel to heavily infected areas such as China, Iran or Italy?  Nope.  It has issued a "Level 3" travel advisory to those areas and we can choose to travel or not.  Are they automatically quarantining us when we return from China, Iran, or Italy?  Nope.  They are asking people to voluntarily "self-isolate" for 14 days upon return.  It's nice that they are running a bunch of tests and finding that most people with respiratory illnesses are suffering from seasonal flu and pneumonia, but in terms of concrete measures to reduce the spread of Covid, they have done effectively nothing.  At least, the chief medical officers of health have acknowledged that this thing will likely end up hitting us hard and have recommended that we accumulate adequate supplies to take care of ourselves for 10 days or 2 weeks, should the need arise.

So, is the testing actually useful for decision making, or is it mostly show-biz to keep nervous people happy?


SJ
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Viking on March 02, 2020, 03:35:46 PM
Stubble, you make excellent points. We will find out in the coming months how well the government in BC is doing. I would think that testing is an important part of the plan and at least on this metric they are executing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Castanza on March 02, 2020, 03:42:16 PM
Can anyone speak to the differences of how information is being spread now vs when SARS occurred? Social media certainly has changed the efficiency, amount, and lifecycle if news. But our (societies) appetite and demand for instant information has also changed and could be skewing (how much is  or isn’t being withheld) this to an extent.

Clearly information is being withheld, but how do we know info wasn’t being withheld in the past and it simply wasn’t made known that govt was doing this in the past? There is clearly pros and cons to both sides of the argument. As Greg said it’s a fine line to walk.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: StubbleJumper on March 02, 2020, 03:47:55 PM
Stubble, you make excellent points. We will find out in the coming months how well the government in BC is doing. I would think that testing is an important part of the plan and at least on this metric they are executing.


So, if you were the premier, what would you be doing? 

1) I would probably stop adding new people to waiting lists for medical procedures that can be postponed, and I'd be encouraging as many of my health practitioners as possible to go on vacation in the next couple of months, because it might be quite some time before they'll get another chance to take a couple of weeks off;

2) I'd be thinking hard about the return to school in September.  BC will likely scoot through to the end of June without any major problems, but the return to school could be an epidemiological time-bomb.  So what's the contingency plan there?

3) If you need surge capacity for respiratory patients, what's the contingency plan there?  Hospitals already run at virtually full capacity, so what's the plan for a "flu season surge" in September or October?  Usually the flu season surge lasts for a couple of weeks in February and overflow patients are treated in hallways.  But, if if a Covid surge lasts for 4 or 5 months beginning in the fall, what's the plan?  Empty school buildings might be useful....

4) Does the health system have an adequate stock of drugs and other materiel for a surge?  There's probably 6 months to figure it out...


So, yeah, your provincial government could be doing any number of useful things at this point.  Are they?  At least the testing and statistics make us feel good, right?


SJ
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Hjorth on March 02, 2020, 04:14:33 PM
WHO daily sit reports with numbers etc. (https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports), for the numbers guys.

Not that bad, I would say. But numbers guys always want more numbers, more data.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: LC on March 02, 2020, 04:25:13 PM
"Beware of he who would deny you access to information, for in his heart he dreams himself your master"
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Hjorth on March 02, 2020, 04:28:19 PM
LC,

That's wachtwoord's board signature, right?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: vinod1 on March 02, 2020, 04:44:24 PM
For the last 4 months I am coaching my son's school team on Disease Detectives for Science Olympiad. This is basically training to be an epidemiologist. So had been spending quite some time last few months on CDC's and WHO's text books on epidemiology.

Only have the most basic knowledge, but everything I have seen of the response from US is following the textbook to near perfection. They way they quickly stopped flights from the affected areas, to the quarantine of those coming back, to the quick public health warnings, etc. is pretty impressive.

You always have to look at 2nd order and 3rd order effects and so on. If you take a look at CDC protocols and their approach, they think about these.

Take an example from Fukushima nuclear power plant disaster. From Factfullness book:

People escaped the province as fast as they could, but 1,600 more people died.
It was not the leaking radioactivity that killed them. Not one person has yet been
reported as having died from the very thing that people were fleeing from. These
1,600 people died because they escaped. They were mainly old people who died
because of the mental and physical stresses of the evacuation itself or of life in
evacuation shelters. It wasn’t radioactivity, but the fear of radioactivity, that
killed them.


Vinod   

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: LC on March 02, 2020, 05:08:33 PM
LC,

That's wachtwoord's board signature, right?

I’m not positive but I did hear the quote on this forum, possibly from one of our favorite anarchists :)

Regardless I think it’s a brilliant quote. It’s all fair to come to different conclusions given the facts and evidence, but that information must be presented!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dalal.Holdings on March 02, 2020, 05:11:13 PM
Cases ex China. Trend continues.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: cherzeca on March 02, 2020, 05:23:51 PM
it's not all bad with covid 19:  https://nypost.com/2020/03/02/top-adviser-to-iranian-supreme-leader-khamenei-dies-of-coronavirus/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gregmal on March 02, 2020, 05:33:00 PM
Todays snap back does make things a little more interesting. I did some minor repositioning today, mainly of stuff I bought late last week. So we lose 12%, get back 5%. Is 7% the right number for "moderate pullback + corona"? Not really sure but I do agree volatility is likely here to stay and we may be collared.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BG2008 on March 02, 2020, 05:45:37 PM
For the last 4 months I am coaching my son's school team on Disease Detectives for Science Olympiad. This is basically training to be an epidemiologist. So had been spending quite some time last few months on CDC's and WHO's text books on epidemiology.

Only have the most basic knowledge, but everything I have seen of the response from US is following the textbook to near perfection. They way they quickly stopped flights from the affected areas, to the quarantine of those coming back, to the quick public health warnings, etc. is pretty impressive.

You always have to look at 2nd order and 3rd order effects and so on. If you take a look at CDC protocols and their approach, they think about these.

Take an example from Fukushima nuclear power plant disaster. From Factfullness book:

People escaped the province as fast as they could, but 1,600 more people died.
It was not the leaking radioactivity that killed them. Not one person has yet been
reported as having died from the very thing that people were fleeing from. These
1,600 people died because they escaped. They were mainly old people who died
because of the mental and physical stresses of the evacuation itself or of life in
evacuation shelters. It wasn’t radioactivity, but the fear of radioactivity, that
killed them.


Vinod

Speaking of 2nd and 3rd order effects, I think that Fintwit and CoB have both been overly focused on the math behind the death rates, speed of spreading, etc.  So I will offer some of my personal opinions. 

1) Fear of becoming infected is very real and it is altering consumer/business behavior.  Anything that is discretionary is and have likely been hurt.  Many of these businesses have substantial operating leverage.  A 5% drop in revenue is likely a 50% drop in EBITDA.  Companies need to right size.  This likely means layouts, buying less inventory, etc.  To what degree? I don't know.  Which leads me to my next point, MasterCard

2) This is a quote from Masterdard.  I think Mastercard is a great proxy for world economy.  It sees GDP in real time.   They took their revenue guidance down by 2-3%.  I am not a macro-economist.  But I find it interesting that if they are lowering their revenue estimate by 2-3%, it likely means that the word's GDP is expected to grow 2-3% lower.   Someone correct me if I am wrong.  World GDP is expected to grow around 3%.  Won't this put the world into the dreaded "R Word"?   

“Cross-border travel, and to a lesser extent cross-border e-commerce growth, is being impacted by the Coronavirus,” the company said in a statement on Monday after the bell. The company said its first-quarter revenue growth will be about two to three percentage points lower than previous guidance.

“If the impact is limited to the first quarter only, we expect that our 2020 annual year-over-year net revenue growth rate would be at the low end of the low-teens range,” the company added.

3) The WHO infection reports are interesting to look at.  67k infected in Hubei province and 2,803 death.  Muscelman (I hope his family is doing well) has mentioned that both numerator and denominator are likely too low.  To be honest, I think the figure outside of Hubei is actually trending better than I thought as it has been a few weeks.   A few thoughts here, people on FinTwit and here may be overly relying on different disease ratios etc.  First, you're working with data provided by Chinese government which probably under reports the figures. There is the testing/no testing dynamic.  One interesting thing to note is that diseases spread differently in different population density.  What do we know? 

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/20200302-sitrep-42-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=d863e045_2

It spreads easily on a cruise ship - Close quarters, shared, facilities etc
It spread easily in WuHan, Hubei has a population of 8.3mm.  Like most cities in China, it has a high reliance on buses, subways, and most buildings are high density apartment buildings.  This is likely very different than the US where people live in suburbs and tend to travel by their own car which tends to carry the atmosphere with it.  Which leads me to the fact that New York City, Paris, London, and etc are more prone than Rochester NY or Detroit Suburbs.   

4) The community spread in California worries me.  They can't trace the origin.  So the virus was already in the population.  Like the Chinese data, US data likely has too low numerator and denominator.  Then we hear that a Rhode Island school has contracted the virus on a field trip to Italy. 

5) Any comparison to SARs and previous disease is likely flawed because 1) the supply chain is way more interconnected globally and 2) the ability to get on a plane and be half way across the world in 12 hours in unbelievable

6) The initial reaction is to become "anti-social".  This has tremendous effects on the economy.  If you talk to most restaurant operators in NYC, they have noticed drops in business volume, especially the ones in the Chinese communities.  No it's not racism, the Chinese American consumers have stopped doing Dim Sum and Chinese restaurants.   

7) There are too much unknown unknowns and we can even have a contagion of the spread of the disease but the economic impact could be quite substantial.  I think Q1 earnings will be interesting to see.  Businesses are adaptive and trickles down.  If the Airline is laying off people, then there is less need for parts.  If the supply chain is disruptive and they can't get the auto parts to the US, then car plants have to slow the plant assembly.  If you read enough of the various corporate announcements to revisions to revenue, you can kind of see lots of revenue and earnings miss in Q1.   Even Microsoft has said that corporate updates for Windows 10 will likely slip into another quarter.  Nike has warned of supply chain issues.  Is this 1 quarter, 2 quarters, 3?  At what point does the market as a whole loses confidence? 

Just be more open minded people, embrace the chaos, prepare accordingly, and don't declare intellectual victory too soon.  I think the next 4-8 weeks will be critical.   


Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Hjorth on March 02, 2020, 06:04:04 PM
Greg, here is a real example. The provincial government where i live (British Columbia) published on the weekend that they had performed well over 1,000 tests to date (and 1,400 total as some people were tested more than once). To provide perspective, they said the US up to that point had performed less than 500. The population of BC is 4.8 million. The population of the US is 328 million.

To put this in perspective, if the US government was testing at the same per capita rate it would be up over 68,000 tests. It had done less than 500.

This informed me of two things.
1.) Our provincial government is testing a shitload more people than the US. That made me feel better about our level of preparedness.
2.) the US has completely missed the boat on stopping the virus from quickly getting established in the country. This is the most important step in the whole ‘deal with the virus’ playbook. WTF? ...

I sense it that way as you, Viking, however I'm not sure.

What I think is important to remember are a few things :

1. The strength and power of the US health care system. [Here I'm not talking about it's economic efficiency, the costs related to it and so on.] It's about its strength and power from a strictly professional angle. I think it actually can ramp up if it gets the funding needed [which I think it eventually will, based on political considerations] [If border walls qualify for POTUS emergency measures, I think this one will too.] Spekulatius has earlier in this topic shared some thoughts about 9/11 and US ramp up after that, I'm more thinking in line of an analogy to Pearl Harbour, well aware of that this is about some other kind of countermeasure.

2. In the US there are [sadly] now corps on the table.

3. Health care professionals [doctors, scientists etc.] operate and function in formal and informal digital networks, across borders and across societal system designs etc. I speculate the powers of these digital structures are great, based on sharing of thoughts, evidence, experience and so on, to tackle this challenge.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Viking on March 02, 2020, 06:07:16 PM
If you want to hear the unvarnished truth of where the US is at and what is coming next watch this CNBC video. Dr. Scott Gottlieb, member of the boards of Pfizer and biotech company Illumina and former FDA commissioner, and Dr. Matt McCarthy, an infectious disease physician, join "Squawk Box" to discuss the latest on the coronavirus outbreak.

NYC ER doctor: I have to 'plead to test people' for coronavirus
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Wg_OTTzUv8

Guest 1: Dr. Matt McCarthy
- The problem right now is I still do not have a rapid diagnostic test available
- In New York State 32 tests have been done. That is a national scandal.
- We know there are 88 cases in the US. There are going to be hundreds by the middle of the week. And thousands by next week
- The message today we are hearing from this administration that the risk is low, that things are probably going to be OK, that you don’t need to change your lifestyle. That is simply not true.
- You are going to see widespread disruption to daily life. Do not believe the false reassurance.
- We are hearing that life is going to go about normal. This is just not true.
- The longer we wait to get testing up and running the worst this will be.
- A week or two from now is when we will begin to get real information. Now we are still largely flying blind.

Guest 2: Dr. Scott Gottlieb
- A vaccine is a year or two away.
- Hopefully this will start to dissipate in July and August
- We need a backstop in place – it is likely going to come back in the fall
- For a while this is going to be regional. We are probably a couple of weeks away from significant measures in Washington state.
- There is probably low thousands of cases currently in this country

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dalal.Holdings on March 02, 2020, 06:25:08 PM

1. The strength and power of the US health care system.


Lol. You mean spend more $$ for poorer outcomes strength and power? See Viking's post above mine. If you are hoping to be saved by U.S. healthcare system/pharma, prepare to be disappointed.

Don't worry, the Republicans, led by Pence, are already using their greatest weapon: "thoughts and prayers". It works after every gun rampage, why not now? Science is useless and agencies like the EPA and CDC are socialist money pits that deserve to be starved of funding (but we'll sure miss them when we need them!).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spekulatius on March 02, 2020, 06:33:19 PM
I think the best similar case is that we can expect a mild form of 9/11. I expect travel and related industries to take a hit. Travel is responsible for about 10% of the global GNP, so if you haircut this by 10-20%, it’s going to be a 1-2% hit to global growth. Then there are trickle down effects on restaurants, malls, sport events, conventions and possibly business travel, aerospace (especially aftermarket parts)

Best case scenario , this blows over in a few weeks and it’s just a minor speed bump  with a bad quarter in GNP growth. Worst case, this leads to lockdowns to slow down the epidemics and then it comes back next winter and cause more lingering effects. Some countries like Greece, Spain, Thailand etc skid in recession and need a bailout.

 https://knoema.com/atlas/topics/Tourism/Travel-and-Tourism-Total-Contribution-to-GDP/Contribution-of-travel-and-tourism-to-GDP-percent-of-GDP (https://knoema.com/atlas/topics/Tourism/Travel-and-Tourism-Total-Contribution-to-GDP/Contribution-of-travel-and-tourism-to-GDP-percent-of-GDP)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dalal.Holdings on March 02, 2020, 06:40:59 PM
There are now 6 dead Americans and 102 confirmed cases. 6/102...about 6%...that ratio is much larger than elsewhere in the world (in Italy it's 2.5%). Perhaps it's because that denominator is falsely depressed by our great American healthcare system/CDC that has missed at least 50% of cases that would have been detected in other nations...hope those undetected 140 or so people have self quarantined!

Edit: and about half of those 102 detected (45 people) were evacuated from the Diamond Princess Cruise ship. So far a terrible job at testing for infections. A national disgrace.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Castanza on March 02, 2020, 06:54:08 PM
@Dalal

Which country should we be looking at on how to handle this issue?

Finland who has the lowest flu death rate of any country has 6 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 130 people recently in quarantine who were in contact with the original 6.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_Finland

List of every country with COVID-19

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/locations-confirmed-cases.html

Fact is there is nothing any country can do. This is the flu on steroids and no modern country has been able to eradicated influenza. Even Finland suffered a flu epidemic in 2018. The fact is, this thing is going to run its course globally and there isn't a damn thing any government or healthcare system will be able to do about it.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: hyten1 on March 02, 2020, 06:56:36 PM
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dalal.Holdings on March 02, 2020, 06:57:24 PM
@GeorgieBoy

Which country should we NOT be looking at as far as handling this? So far, it's the USA.

Like I said, ratio of deaths to # of cases is abnormally large, larger than most places (even Iran). USA is the outlier. And not in a good way.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: hyten1 on March 02, 2020, 07:08:01 PM
interesting facts (people will say chinas data are not trustworthy, maybe), beijing has 8 death, shanghai has 3 deaths so far (3/2/2020 10pm), these are 2 mega city with population of over 20 million people each. not saying we have nothing to worry about,  the outcome obviously depends on how the situation is handle by the authorities etc., nothing is guarantee or a given.

EDIT: either you don't believe anything out of china, or this is an illustration of what can happen if the authorities act quickly etc. 

EDIT 2: if you don't believe data from china, there is taiwan, japan to look at, both have large cities (obviously outcomes is highly dependent on how the local authorities handle the situation).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gregmal on March 02, 2020, 07:19:48 PM
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

LOL Russia. 3 cases. 2 cured. They must be rigging the virus.

Im still waiting for someone to connect why the likely or even less likely and more severe scenario warrants, lets say, Google losing $100B in value? One quarter of really ugly numbers? Two? A year? How ugly should those be? Lets say it goes on for a full year and figures contract 35%! Surely a rational investor would pay, lets say 20x trough earnings for a company like Google. Is the doomsday scenario 11% downside? How scary. No one seems to be quantifying anything in any terms that translate to anything of significance for investments. And no one has really answered the question, what if we only end up with numbers that resemble the flu? Does that kill the markets? I mentioned early last week how people I was speaking with were telling me restaurants in Chinatown were seeing traffic down 40%. And that people in other parts of the country have noticed nil. So obviously the effects will ripple into some areas of life. Others probably not. You want to give me Madison Square Garden at a $5B EV because of a year of the flu? OK.... give it to me. All day. If nothing else, thing is perfect long/short territory. You'll likely have such volatility for a short while that you dont even need to be a good investor just cover shorts when market goes down and flip longs when it goes up and gradually taper short exposure as this plays out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gregmal on March 02, 2020, 07:35:34 PM
And for all the America bashing(Dalal), please explain how it could have been handled any worse than China? They knew about it and covered it up to promote economic activity and travel for the New Year. Deliberately let people get exposed. Possibly fabricated the entire fish market story, and then locked down the entire place for a couple weeks. Total numbers? 3k/85k. Oh they're lying. Multiply by 10. So even after China style negligence multiplied by 10 you have numbers that rival!.....dun, dun, dun.... The common flu annual totals! Do you think those figures are ultimately the totals here? About 5-8% of people get the flu every year. Less than 1% of Wuhan got coronavirus. But throw a big, bad name on the thing, and spam blast it all over Twitter and every media outlet, and yea you might have some residual effects and people running around scared. People are now treating a new case total gaining 25% similar to a company gaining/losing 25%, when in reality it is probably more equivalent to 25 shares trading after hours.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Hjorth on March 02, 2020, 07:39:20 PM
If you want to hear the unvarnished truth of where the US is at and what is coming next watch this CNBC video. Dr. Scott Gottlieb, member of the boards of Pfizer and biotech company Illumina and former FDA commissioner, and Dr. Matt McCarthy, an infectious disease physician, join "Squawk Box" to discuss the latest on the coronavirus outbreak.

NYC ER doctor: I have to 'plead to test people' for coronavirus
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Wg_OTTzUv8 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Wg_OTTzUv8)

Guest 1: Dr. Matt McCarthy
- The problem right now is I still do not have a rapid diagnostic test available
- In New York State 32 tests have been done. That is a national scandal.
- We know there are 88 cases in the US. There are going to be hundreds by the middle of the week. And thousands by next week
- The message today we are hearing from this administration that the risk is low, that things are probably going to be OK, that you don’t need to change your lifestyle. That is simply not true.
- You are going to see widespread disruption to daily life. Do not believe the false reassurance.
- We are hearing that life is going to go about normal. This is just not true.
- The longer we wait to get testing up and running the worst this will be.
- A week or two from now is when we will begin to get real information. Now we are still largely flying blind.

Guest 2: Dr. Scott Gottlieb
- A vaccine is a year or two away.
- Hopefully this will start to dissipate in July and August
- We need a backstop in place – it is likely going to come back in the fall
- For a while this is going to be regional. We are probably a couple of weeks away from significant measures in Washington state.
- There is probably low thousands of cases currently in this country

Viking,

To me - & in short - you're actually talking my book. What you've posted, just confirmed to me, that you can't silence science & facts persons.

My basis is what's been going on within the last 5 days or so in my own country [Denmark]. In short, a dearly shape-up, leaving lies [lies, which even I understand & can relate to are lies], to real and fact based public communication to the Danish population, talk about different scenarios going forward, some of them really severe etc.]
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: StubbleJumper on March 02, 2020, 08:00:39 PM
@GeorgieBoy

Which country should we NOT be looking at as far as handling this? So far, it's the USA.

Like I said, ratio of deaths to # of cases is abnormally large, larger than most places (even Iran). USA is the outlier. And not in a good way.


So if this is being "handled" incorrectly, what is your hypothesis?  Is it:

1) People in the US are actually getting sick from Covid-19, but are electing to not seek medical help?

2) Doctors across the US (who generally work in private practice and are not public employees) are treating people for respiratory illness, they suspect Covid-19, but are failing to inform local public health authorities?

3) Local public health agencies in thousands of cities in the US are collaborating to not test people to confirm the existence of Covid, and they are also collaborating to not forward presumptive diagnoses or suspected cases to the state public health agencies?

4) The 50 different state public health agencies are in cahoots to hide the real numbers from the federal government and are forwarding incorrect numbers to the CDC?


So, in your book, where are the facts being hidden?


SJ
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Viking on March 02, 2020, 08:13:15 PM
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

LOL Russia. 3 cases. 2 cured. They must be rigging the virus.

Im still waiting for someone to connect why the likely or even less likely and more severe scenario warrants, lets say, Google losing $100B in value? One quarter of really ugly numbers? Two? A year? How ugly should those be? Lets say it goes on for a full year and figures contract 35%! Surely a rational investor would pay, lets say 20x trough earnings for a company like Google. Is the doomsday scenario 11% downside? How scary. No one seems to be quantifying anything in any terms that translate to anything of significance for investments. And no one has really answered the question, what if we only end up with numbers that resemble the flu? Does that kill the markets? I mentioned early last week how people I was speaking with were telling me restaurants in Chinatown were seeing traffic down 40%. And that people in other parts of the country have noticed nil. So obviously the effects will ripple into some areas of life. Others probably not. You want to give me Madison Square Garden at a $5B EV because of a year of the flu? OK.... give it to me. All day. If nothing else, thing is perfect long/short territory. You'll likely have such volatility for a short while that you dont even need to be a good investor just cover shorts when market goes down and flip longs when it goes up and gradually taper short exposure as this plays out.

I think the real economic risk is if the US has to lock down regions where this really breaks out. Kirkland, Washington will be the first test and we should know more in about two or three weeks. If lock down is the answer then this will cause significant economic disruption.

After that, it really depends how many ‘clusters’ in the US are incubating currently. Because of pretty much no testing the past month one has to assume a fair bit as this virus is very contagious.

It is like a small meteor randomly hitting a region in the US. Not causing a huge amount of death but causing short term economic damage. We just don’t know how many meteors are coming and what their size will be.

The crazy thing is we still know so little. Will warm weather slow it? Perhaps, but don’t know yet. Will it resurface in the fall? Probably, but don’t know yet. Will it ‘bomerang’ and re-infect already hit areas? Don’t know. Bottom line, fasten your seat belts as the ride is just getting started.

Looks to me like the bond market sees what is coming with the yield on the 10 year treasury down again today to 1.12%. The stock market? Up 5%. It is rallying because of expected central bank easing. Not sure that is going to help in this situation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Viking on March 02, 2020, 08:16:53 PM
@GeorgieBoy

Which country should we NOT be looking at as far as handling this? So far, it's the USA.

Like I said, ratio of deaths to # of cases is abnormally large, larger than most places (even Iran). USA is the outlier. And not in a good way.


So if this is being "handled" incorrectly, what is your hypothesis?  Is it:

1) People in the US are actually getting sick from Covid-19, but are electing to not seek medical help?

2) Doctors across the US (who generally work in private practice and are not public employees) are treating people for respiratory illness, they suspect Covid-19, but are failing to inform local public health authorities?

3) Local public health agencies in thousands of cities in the US are collaborating to not test people to confirm the existence of Covid, and they are also collaborating to not forward presumptive diagnoses or suspected cases to the state public health agencies?

4) The 50 different state public health agencies are in cahoots to hide the real numbers from the federal government and are forwarding incorrect numbers to the CDC?


So, in your book, where are the facts being hidden?


SJ

SJ, did you watch the 8 minute CNBC video i recently posted? I think the doctor more than answers your question.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: james22 on March 02, 2020, 08:21:45 PM
One take on the response:

“I’ve been handling these emerging contagions for about 20 years now, and I have to tell you, I’ve never seen one handled better,” Dr. Marc Siegel said regarding the actions of President Donald Trump since the coronavirus first emerged as a concern in January. ...

“They’ve been doing exactly what they’re supposed to be doing,” he said, listing actions Trump has called for such as “restricting travel, isolating patients who are sick and, trying to cut down on contact. It’s a very hard thing to do when people are pouring in from all over the world.”



More importantly, numbers:

“One, at the beginning of an emerging contagion, it always appears more deadly than it actually is. The 1918 flu is an exception, but normally as time goes on, it’s less deadly, and part of that is because you see more immunity appearing, and you also find a lot of milder cases — or even cases where people don’t get sick at all. You find that as you start to test more people,” he said.

He also noted that people who were infected but never got sick do not show up in statistics, making the virus seem more deadly than it is.


https://www.westernjournal.com/medical-professor-praises-trump-admin-coronavirus-response-never-seen-one-handled-better/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: mcliu on March 02, 2020, 09:40:35 PM
@GeorgieBoy
Which country should we NOT be looking at as far as handling this? So far, it's the USA.

Uh.. what about China, Iran, Italy, S Korea, princess diamond?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: LC on March 02, 2020, 09:47:39 PM
This thread will be a pretty good case study regardless of which direction COVID 19 plays out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Viking on March 02, 2020, 09:59:45 PM
interesting facts (people will say chinas data are not trustworthy, maybe), beijing has 8 death, shanghai has 3 deaths so far (3/2/2020 10pm), these are 2 mega city with population of over 20 million people each. not saying we have nothing to worry about,  the outcome obviously depends on how the situation is handle by the authorities etc., nothing is guarantee or a given.

EDIT: either you don't believe anything out of china, or this is an illustration of what can happen if the authorities act quickly etc. 

EDIT 2: if you don't believe data from china, there is taiwan, japan to look at, both have large cities (obviously outcomes is highly dependent on how the local authorities handle the situation).

Thought provoking post. Why does it blow up in some areas and not others (in the same country)? Making me think  :-)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: UK on March 03, 2020, 12:50:17 AM
https://millervalue.com/market-uncertainty-coronavirus/
https://brooklyninvestor.blogspot.com/2020/03/who-cares-what-mr-market-thinks.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: rb on March 03, 2020, 03:14:37 AM
2) This is a quote from Masterdard.  I think Mastercard is a great proxy for world economy.  It sees GDP in real time.   They took their revenue guidance down by 2-3%.  I am not a macro-economist.  But I find it interesting that if they are lowering their revenue estimate by 2-3%, it likely means that the word's GDP is expected to grow 2-3% lower.   Someone correct me if I am wrong.  World GDP is expected to grow around 3%.  Won't this put the world into the dreaded "R Word"?   

“Cross-border travel, and to a lesser extent cross-border e-commerce growth, is being impacted by the Coronavirus,” the company said in a statement on Monday after the bell. The company said its first-quarter revenue growth will be about two to three percentage points lower than previous guidance.

“If the impact is limited to the first quarter only, we expect that our 2020 annual year-over-year net revenue growth rate would be at the low end of the low-teens range,” the company added.
One place where you're making an error is confusing real with nominal numbers. World "real GDP" was expected to grow by 3% which is probably around 6% nominal (I think). The revenue guidance at Mastercard is nominal.

Mastercard numbers also reflect consumer spending. While that is a big part of GDP, we should keep in mind it's not all. Other sectors of the economy that don't make it into the Mastercard numbers - like say healthcare - are growing. While a 2-3% pullback in consumer spending is not good, it's also not the nightmare scenario either.

Generally what pushes economies into recession and what pulls them out is business investment in inventory. In this case that is very difficult to predict. In a normal scenario businesses would react to the slowdown in consumer spending by cutting orders in so they draw down inventory. That leads to even lower economic activity and TA-DA! you have a recession. The question is will businesses react in this manner this time? For one you have very sharp declines in services businesses (travel, hospitality) that carry no inventory. So the impact to goods businesses may not be very large and they will not react. Also disruptions or fear of disruption to supply chains can alter the inventory decisions. Say a company normally may draw down inventory in a situation like this. But in this case they won't because they don't know whether they can stock back up again when they want to. So they choose to carry more inventory than they normally would given the conditions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dalal.Holdings on March 03, 2020, 03:54:04 AM
@GeorgieBoy

Which country should we NOT be looking at as far as handling this? So far, it's the USA.

Like I said, ratio of deaths to # of cases is abnormally large, larger than most places (even Iran). USA is the outlier. And not in a good way.

So if this is being "handled" incorrectly, what is your hypothesis?  Is it:

1) People in the US are actually getting sick from Covid-19, but are electing to not seek medical help?

2) Doctors across the US (who generally work in private practice and are not public employees) are treating people for respiratory illness, they suspect Covid-19, but are failing to inform local public health authorities?

3) Local public health agencies in thousands of cities in the US are collaborating to not test people to confirm the existence of Covid, and they are also collaborating to not forward presumptive diagnoses or suspected cases to the state public health agencies?

4) The 50 different state public health agencies are in cahoots to hide the real numbers from the federal government and are forwarding incorrect numbers to the CDC?


So, in your book, where are the facts being hidden?


SJ

As was posted recently, up until a few days ago, British Columbia had tested more people than all of the United States. CDC refused to test someone in CA who ended up having the disease...so the failure of U.S. is...not testing enough. Hence, sick people will go undetected (and stay out in the community) and confirmed cases will be falsely low. According to new outlets, govt plans to substantially increase testing. Don’t be surprised if U.S. cases shoot up as a result.

The China numbers are certainly not to be trusted. China did mishandle this in early stages...but black swans are hard to accept as real in the beginning. Diff between U.S. and China is that U.S. has had head-start of months to prepare. U.S. has clearly not prepared and we are reactive more than proactive.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/02/28/810520187/cdc-defends-its-handling-of-new-coronavirus-case-in-california

Quote
The UC Davis Medical Center in Sacramento, Calif., where the woman was being treated, says its diagnosis of the patient's COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, was delayed for days because the patient didn't initially meet the CDC's criteria to approve a coronavirus test.

Add to that flaws in the testing kits/reagents and the fact that you had to mail samples to the CDC to get the test done...

As one of the last places to start getting cases, the U.S. has actually had a head start compared to most of Asia and Europe in having time to prepare for this. Too bad it was squandered.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: stahleyp on March 03, 2020, 05:29:33 AM
You know, if this thing isn't that bad and even more stimulus comes out we could get to dotcom level euphoria.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Hjorth on March 03, 2020, 06:32:52 AM
Some hypothetical thoughts about the design of a gruesome experiment with an infectious virus on rats :

1. You put a large number of healthy rats in a large and sealed lab, where you can - on running basis - observe, what going on through a large glass wall. Let's call that large number X.
2. You're only allowed to observe and take notes, except for :
2a. Providing water & food to the rats in the lab,
2b. Cleaning the place on a regular basis [because you aren't an animal molester, right?]
2c. Remove any dead rats on an ongoing basis, as the experiment moves on over time. [You'll examine them for cause of death, too.]
3. Then you put that particular extra rat, which you - by injection - has infected with the virus into the lab, to start the experiment.

- - - o 0 o - - -

Now, let's set that large number X to 3,710 [so there are 3,711 rats in the experiment].

- - - o 0 o - - -

Next, every place above, where I've written "rat"/"rats", you substitute that with "human being"/"human beings".

- - - o 0 o - - -

The difference between the experiment with rats and that with human beings is that the rats don't understand whats actually going on, while the human beings do, and individually try to take every measure possible for self-protection.

- - - o 0 o - - -

That experiment with human beings has a separate line in the daily WHO sit reports [the last one, actually], called "Princess Diamond" :

Here are the numbers, based on WHO sit Report 42 (https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200302-sitrep-42-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=63a4f9f2_2):

Population : 3,711 [source : Here (https://www.princess.com/news/notices_and_advisories/notices/diamond-princess-update.html)]

Observed development period February 1st - March 2nd 2020 :

Infections [called "confirmed cases"] : 706 [Including the original infected specimen, that you added your self]. So infection rate is  ~ [[706 - 1]/3,711] ~ 19 percent.

Deaths : 6. So death rate is [6 / 3,711] ~ 0.16 percent.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: rkbabang on March 03, 2020, 06:45:10 AM
You know, if this thing isn't that bad and even more stimulus comes out we could get to dotcom level euphoria.

That's what I've been thinking exactly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Liberty on March 03, 2020, 07:07:07 AM
https://twitter.com/juddlegum/status/1234536619270688768?s=21

Atrocious.


I'm not sure that I quite understand the fixation on having "correct" and up to date statistics.  What would governments in the US do differently if they had "good" statistics resulting from more prevalent testing? 

So, suppose that there was more testing being done of people who sought medical attention for respiratory disorders and it came back that there were 1,000 positive Covid-19 cases.  If that were true, how many cases would there be that had not sought medical attention because the symptoms were not so severe?  Perhaps it would be 1,000 more that wouldn't show up in the official statistics?  And then what would the US government do with those numbers? 

Look, either this virus can be controlled and we can put the genie back in the bottle, or it cannot be controlled and the genie is on the loose.  If you are in the camp that this thing has already spread so much that the world has lost control of it, then "good" statistics don't strike me as too useful.  If you are not going to impose mandatory quarantines and if you are not going to suspend international travel, what are the remaining levers that governments can pull and how are better statistics actually useful?

I guess that I'm in the camp that the genie is out of the bottle and that it's time to focus on managing a situation which is no longer preventable.  But, maybe I'm alone in that camp?


SJ

It makes a huge difference. Investors are supposed to understand exponential growth, right? This means that time matters a lot and early interventions in the right places, in the right ways, giving correct info to population and medical staff so they can act in the right way, etc, can have a tremendous impact on the rate at which things unfold. Since healthcare system capability isn't built for huge peaks, these delays can help it absorb increases much better and will result in saved lives.

Also, vaccines and other drugs are being tested and developed, and delays help get more people across that line.

In short, bungling the public health response will cost lives, could be your grand-parents or some friend who has a weaker immune system because they survived cancer or have asthma or whatever.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: griezeman23 on March 03, 2020, 07:24:27 AM
You know, if this thing isn't that bad and even more stimulus comes out we could get to dotcom level euphoria.

That's what I've been thinking exactly.

+1. My thoughts as well. I think this is a textbook demand shock for certain industries (airlines, hospitality, etc.) or supply shock for others (consumer discretionary, etc.). Both of these types of shocks are temporary and we should return to something relatively normal in the next 12m to 24m.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: mcliu on March 03, 2020, 07:25:58 AM
Just announced -50bps!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dalal.Holdings on March 03, 2020, 07:26:21 AM
https://twitter.com/juddlegum/status/1234536619270688768?s=21

Atrocious.


I'm not sure that I quite understand the fixation on having "correct" and up to date statistics.  What would governments in the US do differently if they had "good" statistics resulting from more prevalent testing? 

So, suppose that there was more testing being done of people who sought medical attention for respiratory disorders and it came back that there were 1,000 positive Covid-19 cases.  If that were true, how many cases would there be that had not sought medical attention because the symptoms were not so severe?  Perhaps it would be 1,000 more that wouldn't show up in the official statistics?  And then what would the US government do with those numbers? 

Look, either this virus can be controlled and we can put the genie back in the bottle, or it cannot be controlled and the genie is on the loose.  If you are in the camp that this thing has already spread so much that the world has lost control of it, then "good" statistics don't strike me as too useful.  If you are not going to impose mandatory quarantines and if you are not going to suspend international travel, what are the remaining levers that governments can pull and how are better statistics actually useful?

I guess that I'm in the camp that the genie is out of the bottle and that it's time to focus on managing a situation which is no longer preventable.  But, maybe I'm alone in that camp?


SJ

It makes a huge difference. Investors are supposed to understand exponential growth, right? This means that time matters a lot and early interventions in the right places, in the right ways, giving correct info to population so they can act in the right way, etc, can have a tremendous impact on the rate at which things unfold. Since healthcare system capability isn't built for huge peaks, these delays can help it absorb increases much better and will result in saved lives.

Also, vaccines and other drugs are being tested and developed, and delays help get more people across that line.

In short, bungling the public health response will cost lives, could be your grand-parents or some friend who has a weaker immune system because they survived cancer or have asthma or whatever.

Ironically doesn’t seem like too many people understand significance of exponential growth on a value investing site.

So the greatest country on earth with the *greatest healthcare system* had a huge headstart on tackling this and bungled it up, far worse management than Canada or Europe and people on here asking “so what”. Lol.

The only good thing this admin did was cutting off travel with China early which helped us have a delay in cases. Everything else was botched.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Castanza on March 03, 2020, 07:35:16 AM
https://twitter.com/juddlegum/status/1234536619270688768?s=21

Atrocious.


I'm not sure that I quite understand the fixation on having "correct" and up to date statistics.  What would governments in the US do differently if they had "good" statistics resulting from more prevalent testing? 

So, suppose that there was more testing being done of people who sought medical attention for respiratory disorders and it came back that there were 1,000 positive Covid-19 cases.  If that were true, how many cases would there be that had not sought medical attention because the symptoms were not so severe?  Perhaps it would be 1,000 more that wouldn't show up in the official statistics?  And then what would the US government do with those numbers? 

Look, either this virus can be controlled and we can put the genie back in the bottle, or it cannot be controlled and the genie is on the loose.  If you are in the camp that this thing has already spread so much that the world has lost control of it, then "good" statistics don't strike me as too useful.  If you are not going to impose mandatory quarantines and if you are not going to suspend international travel, what are the remaining levers that governments can pull and how are better statistics actually useful?

I guess that I'm in the camp that the genie is out of the bottle and that it's time to focus on managing a situation which is no longer preventable.  But, maybe I'm alone in that camp?


SJ

It makes a huge difference. Investors are supposed to understand exponential growth, right? This means that time matters a lot and early interventions in the right places, in the right ways, giving correct info to population so they can act in the right way, etc, can have a tremendous impact on the rate at which things unfold. Since healthcare system capability isn't built for huge peaks, these delays can help it absorb increases much better and will result in saved lives.

Also, vaccines and other drugs are being tested and developed, and delays help get more people across that line.

In short, bungling the public health response will cost lives, could be your grand-parents or some friend who has a weaker immune system because they survived cancer or have asthma or whatever.

Ironically doesn’t seem like too many people understand significance of exponential growth on a value investing site.

So the greatest country on earth with the *greatest healthcare system* had a huge headstart on tackling this and bungled it up, far worse management than Canada or Europe and people on here asking “so what”. Lol.

The only good thing this admin did was cutting off travel with China early which helped us have a delay in cases. Everything else was botched.

What is "everything else"?

Testing? That's not doing anything but delaying the exponential growth by maybe a month or two. If you have 1 individual who test positive and you quarantine 100 individuals believed to have come in contact with that person. You still have another 1000 (probably more) individuals who may have been exposed by the 100 during the 14 day incubation period.

It's futile...If you miss a single infected individual it's already too late.

The ONLY thing testing is good for at this point is alerting individuals that COVID-19 is in their immediate area. And by then you're likely 14 days too late...

By your standards the best thing that could have possibly been done was on day 1 of COVID-19 being discovered is go into full nationwide quarantine. And that would likely be ineffective as well due to the long incubation period.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Liberty on March 03, 2020, 07:37:46 AM
https://twitter.com/juddlegum/status/1234536619270688768?s=21

Atrocious.


I'm not sure that I quite understand the fixation on having "correct" and up to date statistics.  What would governments in the US do differently if they had "good" statistics resulting from more prevalent testing? 

So, suppose that there was more testing being done of people who sought medical attention for respiratory disorders and it came back that there were 1,000 positive Covid-19 cases.  If that were true, how many cases would there be that had not sought medical attention because the symptoms were not so severe?  Perhaps it would be 1,000 more that wouldn't show up in the official statistics?  And then what would the US government do with those numbers? 

Look, either this virus can be controlled and we can put the genie back in the bottle, or it cannot be controlled and the genie is on the loose.  If you are in the camp that this thing has already spread so much that the world has lost control of it, then "good" statistics don't strike me as too useful.  If you are not going to impose mandatory quarantines and if you are not going to suspend international travel, what are the remaining levers that governments can pull and how are better statistics actually useful?

I guess that I'm in the camp that the genie is out of the bottle and that it's time to focus on managing a situation which is no longer preventable.  But, maybe I'm alone in that camp?


SJ

It makes a huge difference. Investors are supposed to understand exponential growth, right? This means that time matters a lot and early interventions in the right places, in the right ways, giving correct info to population so they can act in the right way, etc, can have a tremendous impact on the rate at which things unfold. Since healthcare system capability isn't built for huge peaks, these delays can help it absorb increases much better and will result in saved lives.

Also, vaccines and other drugs are being tested and developed, and delays help get more people across that line.

In short, bungling the public health response will cost lives, could be your grand-parents or some friend who has a weaker immune system because they survived cancer or have asthma or whatever.

Ironically doesn’t seem like too many people understand significance of exponential growth on a value investing site.

So the greatest country on earth with the *greatest healthcare system* had a huge headstart on tackling this and bungled it up, far worse management than Canada or Europe and people on here asking “so what”. Lol.

The only good thing this admin did was cutting off travel with China early which helped us have a delay in cases. Everything else was botched.

What is "everything else"?

Testing? That's not doing anything but delaying the exponential growth by maybe a month or two. If you have 1 individual who test positive and you quarantine 100 individuals believed to have come in contact with that person. You still have another 1000 (probably more) individuals who may have been exposed by the 100 during the 14 day incubation period.

It's futile...If you miss a single infected individual it's already too late.

The ONLY thing testing is good for at this point is alerting individuals that COVID-19 is in their immediate area. And by then you're likely 14 days too late...

By your standards the best thing that could have possibly been done was on day 1 of COVID-19 being discovered is go into full nationwide quarantine. And that would likely be ineffective as well due to the long incubation period.

This isn't the first epidemic in human history, right? Some have been handled better than others, there are things to do, they make a difference to rate of progression and at what level things get contained and how many people die. It's not binary. The "well, it's all pointless, just throw your hands in the air and do nothing" approach clearly isn't the best.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: james22 on March 03, 2020, 07:43:26 AM
The only good thing this admin did was cutting off travel with China early which helped us have a delay in cases.

Racist.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Liberty on March 03, 2020, 07:48:09 AM
Thread about someone with symptoms and high-risk situation trying to get tested in Seattle:

https://twitter.com/into_the_brush/status/1234685467682979840?s=20
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: StubbleJumper on March 03, 2020, 07:52:30 AM
https://twitter.com/juddlegum/status/1234536619270688768?s=21

Atrocious.


I'm not sure that I quite understand the fixation on having "correct" and up to date statistics.  What would governments in the US do differently if they had "good" statistics resulting from more prevalent testing? 

So, suppose that there was more testing being done of people who sought medical attention for respiratory disorders and it came back that there were 1,000 positive Covid-19 cases.  If that were true, how many cases would there be that had not sought medical attention because the symptoms were not so severe?  Perhaps it would be 1,000 more that wouldn't show up in the official statistics?  And then what would the US government do with those numbers? 

Look, either this virus can be controlled and we can put the genie back in the bottle, or it cannot be controlled and the genie is on the loose.  If you are in the camp that this thing has already spread so much that the world has lost control of it, then "good" statistics don't strike me as too useful.  If you are not going to impose mandatory quarantines and if you are not going to suspend international travel, what are the remaining levers that governments can pull and how are better statistics actually useful?

I guess that I'm in the camp that the genie is out of the bottle and that it's time to focus on managing a situation which is no longer preventable.  But, maybe I'm alone in that camp?


SJ

It makes a huge difference. Investors are supposed to understand exponential growth, right? This means that time matters a lot and early interventions in the right places, in the right ways, giving correct info to population and medical staff so they can act in the right way, etc, can have a tremendous impact on the rate at which things unfold. Since healthcare system capability isn't built for huge peaks, these delays can help it absorb increases much better and will result in saved lives.

Also, vaccines and other drugs are being tested and developed, and delays help get more people across that line.

In short, bungling the public health response will cost lives, could be your grand-parents or some friend who has a weaker immune system because they survived cancer or have asthma or whatever.


So are you in the camp that the genie is *not* out of the bottle?  I'm in the camp that this thing cannot be contained at this point because there are too many confirmed cases, and quite likely far more that have not sought medical care.  This is not like Ebola, where 100% of cases seek medical attention and therefore offer a reasonable prospect of a trace-back.

Investors are supposed to understand known unknowns, right?  So what's the unknown of how many asymptomatic cases are floating around and how many mild cases have resulted in people not bothering with the doctor?  The general theory is that those categories are larger than the group that has actually sought medical attention which is the only group that could possibly be miscounted.  It's like having only half of a P/L statement and pretending that it's useful.


SJ
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: mcliu on March 03, 2020, 07:59:58 AM
It's interesting how we all became qualified pandemic experts all of a sudden.  ::)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Castanza on March 03, 2020, 08:06:57 AM
COVID-19 is likely going to be a seasonal virus like influenza. Wash your hands, avoid crowded areas, drink lots of water, eat your fruit and veggies. A vaccine is what, 1-2 years out? And likely will only be 50% effective for healthy individuals. It sucks for sure, and will have a definitive impact on the elderly and those suffering with other illnesses. That's where we should be focusing out attention. Cut off all contact to elderly and chronically ill.

This whole things can be summed up with a meme...

(https://i.redd.it/sk9nb6lgccq31.gif)

I will happily eat crow if I'm wrong and the world governments find a way to contain and eradicate COVID-19 from the planet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Liberty on March 03, 2020, 08:07:38 AM
So are you in the camp that the genie is *not* out of the bottle?  I'm in the camp that this thing cannot be contained at this point because there are too many confirmed cases, and quite likely far more that have not sought medical care.  This is not like Ebola, where 100% of cases seek medical attention and therefore offer a reasonable prospect of a trace-back.

Investors are supposed to understand known unknowns, right?  So what's the unknown of how many asymptomatic cases are floating around and how many mild cases have resulted in people not bothering with the doctor?  The general theory is that those categories are larger than the group that has actually sought medical attention which is the only group that could possibly be miscounted.  It's like having only half of a P/L statement and pretending that it's useful.


SJ

*sigh*

I'm in the camp of what I explained. I'm in the camp that it's not a genie, it's a virus, and the public health reaction makes a difference to how many people die or get really sick once all is said and done, as I've explained previously. There are many factors that cause this, and I don't feel like re-writing them all every time.

https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status/1234815826345197568?s=20

"If we reduce the spread, even if we ultimately have the same total number of cases, we 'flatten the curve,' which means that, at any given time, our health care system can cope with the COVID-19 cases, hopefully.

USA has lower hospital capacity (2.9 beds/1,000 people) than China (4.2), Australia (3.8 ), Italy (3.4), Japan (13.4), & Korea (11.5). Reports indicate COVID-19 epidemic filled the hospitals in Wuhan and Milan regions

Another advantage of 'flattening the curve' of the COVID-19 epidemic by implementing social distancing now is that more of the cases that ultimately occur will occur at a (later) time point when (perhaps!) a vaccine or better treatment is available"

https://twitter.com/tomgara/status/1234884106846187527?s=20

"The US is somehow still unable to do large scale coronavirus testing. "The incompetence has really exceeded what anyone would expect with the CDC,” said Dr Michael Mina, an epidemiologist at Harvard. “This is not a difficult problem to solve."

China has tested millions of people, South Korea testing 10,000 a day. US has tested *hundreds*.

"China had five commercial tests on the market 1 month ago and can now do up to 1.6 million tests a week; South Korea has tested 65,000 people so far. The U. S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), in contrast, has done only 459 tests""
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: RichardGibbons on March 03, 2020, 08:41:13 AM
I'd say that America at this point has one of the best western cultures for encouraging the spread of the disease.

Once individual cases are identified, I'd expect a solid medical response in those cases, but I suspect the factors above mean that the USA is pretty likely to get something like Wuhan where hospitals are overwhelmed.  And then I think from there, second-order effects will cause bad things to happen to the economy.

From an investment perspective, the thing to worry about isn't a loss of a quarter or a year's discounted cash flow.  It's the second-order effects like debt rollovers, supply chain disruption, and layoffs due to the slowing economy leading to unemployment spikes, consumer fear, and demand disintegration.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Viking on March 03, 2020, 10:35:52 AM
I am shocked that people do not understand the absolute importance of doing everything possible to slow this virus in the very early stages. And every stage after that. Sounds like people still do not understand this virus and its potential to cause a severe human and economic tragedy.

We have a real world example of what happens when a government does not take the issue seriously and do everything possible to slow this virus in the early stages: Wuhan

If you do not find a way to slow it the virus it will overwhelm your medical system. If you do not understand why, then you need to educate yourself. If you think this virus is simply a little worse than the flu (so what's the big deal?) then you need to educate yourself. Holy shit!

I posted a video of what Wuhan has been through and what they had to do to get the virus under control (re-posted below). Watch this video if you haven’t. Their key mistake was their inactivity the first two weeks. The incompetence of the government resulted in a human and economic tragedy.
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ycrqXJYf1SU

And if you want real-time information of how well the US is currently responding to this virus I posted this CNBC interview from yesterday. The doctor (who is on the front line) explains in very clear language what the issues are and what needs to be done.
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Wg_OTTzUv8
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: DocSnowball on March 03, 2020, 10:54:28 AM
If you want to hear the unvarnished truth of where the US is at and what is coming next watch this CNBC video. Dr. Scott Gottlieb, member of the boards of Pfizer and biotech company Illumina and former FDA commissioner, and Dr. Matt McCarthy, an infectious disease physician, join "Squawk Box" to discuss the latest on the coronavirus outbreak.

NYC ER doctor: I have to 'plead to test people' for coronavirus
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Wg_OTTzUv8

Guest 1: Dr. Matt McCarthy
- The problem right now is I still do not have a rapid diagnostic test available
- In New York State 32 tests have been done. That is a national scandal.
- We know there are 88 cases in the US. There are going to be hundreds by the middle of the week. And thousands by next week
- The message today we are hearing from this administration that the risk is low, that things are probably going to be OK, that you don’t need to change your lifestyle. That is simply not true.
- You are going to see widespread disruption to daily life. Do not believe the false reassurance.
- We are hearing that life is going to go about normal. This is just not true.
- The longer we wait to get testing up and running the worst this will be.
- A week or two from now is when we will begin to get real information. Now we are still largely flying blind.

Guest 2: Dr. Scott Gottlieb
- A vaccine is a year or two away.
- Hopefully this will start to dissipate in July and August
- We need a backstop in place – it is likely going to come back in the fall
- For a while this is going to be regional. We are probably a couple of weeks away from significant measures in Washington state.
- There is probably low thousands of cases currently in this country

Thanks for sharing Viking. From a physician standpoint, I agree with all that they are saying.

May I add, hospitals are running out of N95 respirators, and have an additional disincentive to testing. If they suspect someone, they need to initiate high level precautions and dedicate resources and staff until the results are back. Outside the hospital, stores are already out of hand sanitizer and disinfectant solutions and wipes. The way the US agencies are responding is baffling in terms of the message of treating this as business as usual, and the barriers in testing. They have not understood the concept of "margin of safety" in preventing transmission of this infection. All you need to do is look at what happened between Christmas, when Wuhan had a handful cases, and three weeks later when they did nothing to prevent the chain of transmission.

Another helpful link is the WHO briefing given by one of the members of the team visiting China. It is long, but well worth it - if you listen to the first 40 minutes or so you get the message that a new mindset is needed. It has 3 sections: what did China do, what impact did it have, and what it means for the rest of the world:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/25/watch-world-health-organization-holds-press-conference-on-the-coronavirus-outbreak.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/25/watch-world-health-organization-holds-press-conference-on-the-coronavirus-outbreak.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: shhughes1116 on March 03, 2020, 11:03:18 AM
I am shocked that people do not understand the absolute importance of doing everything possible to slow this virus in the very early stages. And every stage after that. Sounds like people still do not understand this virus and its potential to cause a severe human and economic tragedy.

+1

In most instances, it is impossible to prevent the spread of a pathogen like this.  So, you do what you can to slow the rate of infection.  (1) Implement social distancing early on; (2) Implement widespread testing to find, isolate, and treat patients; (3) begin development of a therapeutic; and (4) Begin development of a vaccine.  This is basic epidemiology 101, but the people that coordinate this work for the Federal Govt are gone, moved along/out due to the current administration.     

In the United States, we have the ability to do #3 and #4 quickly (relatively speaking).  I'll bet there is a vaccine available in early 2021.

The problem, in the meantime, is what the morbidity and mortality rates will look like in the meantime, and the extent to which our hospital system is overwhelmed by people seeking treatment.

If we (US society) were intelligent, we would bite the bullet now, and:
1. Close schools for 3 weeks;
2. Close daycares for 3 weeks;
3. Close gov offices for 3 weeks;
4. Direct gov employees and private sector employees to stay home and telework for the next 3 weeks.
5. Roll-out diagnostic testing to anyone who thinks they may be sick, or have been in contact with infected individuals.
6. Cover the cost of #5 so that people are not discouraged from seeking out testing. 

Unfortunately, we have a president that is 100% concerned about re-election.  And as a result, none of this will happen until it is to late.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: DocSnowball on March 03, 2020, 11:10:49 AM
I am shocked that people do not understand the absolute importance of doing everything possible to slow this virus in the very early stages. And every stage after that. Sounds like people still do not understand this virus and its potential to cause a severe human and economic tragedy.

+1

In most instances, it is impossible to prevent the spread of a pathogen like this.  So, you do what you can to slow the rate of infection.  (1) Implement social distancing early on; (2) Implement widespread testing to find, isolate, and treat patients; (3) begin development of a therapeutic; and (4) Begin development of a vaccine.  This is basic epidemiology 101, but the people that coordinate this work for the Federal Govt are gone, moved along/out due to the current administration.     

In the United States, we have the ability to do #3 and #4 quickly (relatively speaking).  I'll bet there is a vaccine available in early 2021.

The problem, in the meantime, is what the morbidity and mortality rates will look like in the meantime, and the extent to which our hospital system is overwhelmed by people seeking treatment.

If we (US society) were intelligent, we would bite the bullet now, and:
1. Close schools for 3 weeks;
2. Close daycares for 3 weeks;
3. Close gov offices for 3 weeks;
4. Direct gov employees and private sector employees to stay home and telework for the next 3 weeks.
5. Roll-out diagnostic testing to anyone who thinks they may be sick, or have been in contact with infected individuals.
6. Cover the cost of #5 so that people are not discouraged from seeking out testing. 

Unfortunately, we have a president that is 100% concerned about re-election.  And as a result, none of this will happen until it is to late.
A lot of what's on this list will need to happen. It may happen one region or one state at a time. Once the playbook is created, the rest of the regions or state will iterate and improve it further, but are unlikely to do less than that. The best mindset to have is to believe it will show up in our community tonight or tomorrow, and to prepare accordingly. If it ends up being anything less than that and in a few months we are still here discussing missing out on 10% stock gains, wouldn't that be a great outcome to have.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: CorpRaider on March 03, 2020, 11:20:22 AM
Since no one is getting tested it is hard to decide whether to wait until there is a positive in your state/region before pulling your kid from daycare.  For all I know we already had it.  We have had like 4 mystery viruses that sound like they could be the mild version of this one over the course of the fall and winter. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Viking on March 03, 2020, 11:20:37 AM
I am shocked that people do not understand the absolute importance of doing everything possible to slow this virus in the very early stages. And every stage after that. Sounds like people still do not understand this virus and its potential to cause a severe human and economic tragedy.

+1

In most instances, it is impossible to prevent the spread of a pathogen like this.  So, you do what you can to slow the rate of infection.  (1) Implement social distancing early on; (2) Implement widespread testing to find, isolate, and treat patients; (3) begin development of a therapeutic; and (4) Begin development of a vaccine.  This is basic epidemiology 101, but the people that coordinate this work for the Federal Govt are gone, moved along/out due to the current administration.     

In the United States, we have the ability to do #3 and #4 quickly (relatively speaking).  I'll bet there is a vaccine available in early 2021.

The problem, in the meantime, is what the morbidity and mortality rates will look like in the meantime, and the extent to which our hospital system is overwhelmed by people seeking treatment.

If we (US society) were intelligent, we would bite the bullet now, and:
1. Close schools for 3 weeks;
2. Close daycares for 3 weeks;
3. Close gov offices for 3 weeks;
4. Direct gov employees and private sector employees to stay home and telework for the next 3 weeks.
5. Roll-out diagnostic testing to anyone who thinks they may be sick, or have been in contact with infected individuals.
6. Cover the cost of #5 so that people are not discouraged from seeking out testing. 

Unfortunately, we have a president that is 100% concerned about re-election.  And as a result, none of this will happen until it is to late.
A lot of what's on this list will need to happen. It may happen one region or one state at a time. Once the playbook is created, the rest of the regions or state will iterate and improve it further, but are unlikely to do less than that. The best mindset to have is to believe it will show up in our community tonight or tomorrow, and to prepare accordingly. If it ends up being anything less than that and in a few months we are still here discussing missing out on 10% stock gains, wouldn't that be a great outcome to have.

+1

Watching business TV today is painful. They are trying to predict what is going to happen in the next month or three. There is no discussion on what the root issue is: the response of the government and health care system right now to this virus. Your assessment of the effectiveness of the response today is what will inform your perspective of what the economy will look like in the future. My guess is there are very good reasons it is not being actively debated/discussed. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gregmal on March 03, 2020, 11:27:45 AM
In two days nothing in terms of the prognosis and transmission numbers has really deviated from what everyone already assumed. The only thing that has really changed is now we have a 50 point cut. Which on one hand, many said "do right away". On the other, it certainly feeds into the narrative that things are dire. One of those damned if you do, damned if you dont scenarios. Better safe than sorry I guess was the thought process.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Viking on March 03, 2020, 12:15:57 PM
In two days nothing in terms of the prognosis and transmission numbers has really deviated from what everyone already assumed. The only thing that has really changed is now we have a 50 point cut. Which on one hand, many said "do right away". On the other, it certainly feeds into the narrative that things are dire. One of those damned if you do, damned if you dont scenarios. Better safe than sorry I guess was the thought process.

Greg, i think it was a ‘cover your ass’ cut. On a daily basis Trump has been hammering away at the Fed to do a 50 point cut. The ball is now back in the President’s court.

The big news to me is the 10 year treasury. It is in freefall and went below 1%.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jurgis on March 03, 2020, 12:19:27 PM
https://brooklyninvestor.blogspot.com/2020/03/who-cares-what-mr-market-thinks.html

This is probably wrong thread for this, but anyways...

I ran the BrooklynInvestor DCF on SP500 and the issue is not Covid, the issue is valuation.

Starting with 133.53 SP500 earnings ( from here https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-earnings/table/by-year , I did not double check ), 0% growth this year, 3% growth rate from here to year 10, 5% discount rate, terminal PE 15, SP500 value would be ~2700.
Using 5% growth rate, SP500 value would be 3179.

Now, this assumes 5% discount rate, which is basically expected return. If investor wanted more than 5% return, the numbers are way worse.

(No, I don't think 25x terminal PE or 4% discount rate make sense. I don't think growth rates above 5% make sense either. Yes, I know that risk free rates are close to zero. I'm not gonna use risk free rates for DCF. But, yeah, that's likely why SP500 is where it is.)  ::)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Schwab711 on March 03, 2020, 12:29:11 PM
https://brooklyninvestor.blogspot.com/2020/03/who-cares-what-mr-market-thinks.html

This is probably wrong thread for this, but anyways...

I ran the BrooklynInvestor DCF on SP500 and the issue is not Covid, the issue is valuation.

Starting with 133.53 SP500 earnings ( from here https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-earnings/table/by-year , I did not double check ), 0% growth this year, 3% growth rate from here to year 10, 5% discount rate, terminal PE 15, SP500 value would be ~2700.
Using 5% growth rate, SP500 value would be 3179.

Now, this assumes 5% discount rate, which is basically expected return. If investor wanted more than 5% return, the numbers are way worse.

(No, I don't think 25x terminal PE or 4% discount rate make sense. I don't think growth rates above 5% make sense either. Yes, I know that risk free rates are close to zero. I'm not gonna use risk free rates for DCF. But, yeah, that's likely why SP500 is where it is.)  ::)

TL;DR: If you assume a 25x multiple at exit and unchanged long-term earnings potential then nothing matters.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jurgis on March 03, 2020, 12:32:02 PM
https://brooklyninvestor.blogspot.com/2020/03/who-cares-what-mr-market-thinks.html

This is probably wrong thread for this, but anyways...

I ran the BrooklynInvestor DCF on SP500 and the issue is not Covid, the issue is valuation.

Starting with 133.53 SP500 earnings ( from here https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-earnings/table/by-year , I did not double check ), 0% growth this year, 3% growth rate from here to year 10, 5% discount rate, terminal PE 15, SP500 value would be ~2700.
Using 5% growth rate, SP500 value would be 3179.

Now, this assumes 5% discount rate, which is basically expected return. If investor wanted more than 5% return, the numbers are way worse.

(No, I don't think 25x terminal PE or 4% discount rate make sense. I don't think growth rates above 5% make sense either. Yes, I know that risk free rates are close to zero. I'm not gonna use risk free rates for DCF. But, yeah, that's likely why SP500 is where it is.)  ::)

TL;DR: If you assume a 25x multiple at exit and unchanged long-term earnings potential then nothing matters.

I should just remove my post and leave your TL;DR.  8)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Schwab711 on March 03, 2020, 12:34:46 PM
https://brooklyninvestor.blogspot.com/2020/03/who-cares-what-mr-market-thinks.html

This is probably wrong thread for this, but anyways...

I ran the BrooklynInvestor DCF on SP500 and the issue is not Covid, the issue is valuation.

Starting with 133.53 SP500 earnings ( from here https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-earnings/table/by-year , I did not double check ), 0% growth this year, 3% growth rate from here to year 10, 5% discount rate, terminal PE 15, SP500 value would be ~2700.
Using 5% growth rate, SP500 value would be 3179.

Now, this assumes 5% discount rate, which is basically expected return. If investor wanted more than 5% return, the numbers are way worse.

(No, I don't think 25x terminal PE or 4% discount rate make sense. I don't think growth rates above 5% make sense either. Yes, I know that risk free rates are close to zero. I'm not gonna use risk free rates for DCF. But, yeah, that's likely why SP500 is where it is.)  ::)

TL;DR: If you assume a 25x multiple at exit and unchanged long-term earnings potential then nothing matters.

I should just remove my post and leave your TL;DR.  8)

Nothing matters so you're good 8)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gregmal on March 03, 2020, 12:46:24 PM
In two days nothing in terms of the prognosis and transmission numbers has really deviated from what everyone already assumed. The only thing that has really changed is now we have a 50 point cut. Which on one hand, many said "do right away". On the other, it certainly feeds into the narrative that things are dire. One of those damned if you do, damned if you dont scenarios. Better safe than sorry I guess was the thought process.

Greg, i think it was a ‘cover your ass’ cut. On a daily basis Trump has been hammering away at the Fed to do a 50 point cut. The ball is now back in the President’s court.

The big news to me is the 10 year treasury. It is in freefall and went below 1%.

Indeed, the manipulative power of Twitter and a big mouth.

I think he just donated his $100k salary to the cause, so pretty sure he thinks the balls back out of his court lol.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: elliott on March 03, 2020, 12:53:18 PM
...and the 10Y Greek bond yielding 1.3%

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: rb on March 03, 2020, 12:55:19 PM
In two days nothing in terms of the prognosis and transmission numbers has really deviated from what everyone already assumed. The only thing that has really changed is now we have a 50 point cut. Which on one hand, many said "do right away". On the other, it certainly feeds into the narrative that things are dire. One of those damned if you do, damned if you dont scenarios. Better safe than sorry I guess was the thought process.

Greg, i think it was a ‘cover your ass’ cut. On a daily basis Trump has been hammering away at the Fed to do a 50 point cut. The ball is now back in the President’s court.

The big news to me is the 10 year treasury. It is in freefall and went below 1%.
The 10-year treasury scares the shit outta me. And it was scaring the hell outta me before I ever heard the words corona virus. Now the alert level got upgraded.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dalal.Holdings on March 03, 2020, 12:57:52 PM
I am shocked that people do not understand the absolute importance of doing everything possible to slow this virus in the very early stages. And every stage after that. Sounds like people still do not understand this virus and its potential to cause a severe human and economic tragedy.

Black swans are frequently underestimated, esp early on. People don’t think about 2nd and 3rd order effects and are more reactive than proactive which is why fighting things like climate change are difficult. What’s surprising is how dismissive a supposedly intelligent group of investors is of this stuff, but then again you look at the politics section here and then it all makes sense.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Kaegi2011 on March 03, 2020, 01:07:23 PM
I am shocked that people do not understand the absolute importance of doing everything possible to slow this virus in the very early stages. And every stage after that. Sounds like people still do not understand this virus and its potential to cause a severe human and economic tragedy.

Black swans are frequently underestimated, esp early on. People don’t think about 2nd and 3rd order effects and are more reactive than proactive which is why fighting things like climate change are difficult. What’s surprising is how dismissive a supposedly intelligent group of investors is of this stuff, but then again you look at the politics section here and then it all makes sense.

One does not need to wonder that far to understand. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Viking on March 03, 2020, 01:23:23 PM
Calculated risk blog has some suggestions of what political leadership should be considering. Very thoughtful.
- https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/03/a-few-comments-on-covid-19-non-medical.html

1.) First, Let the experts brief the public, not politicians.
2.) Second, the government should take the advice of the experts at the CDC and elsewhere and increase funding immediately as required by the health professionals.
3.) Third, testing should be increased dramatically, and testing should be free for all in the US with any symptoms (or closely exposed to an infected person). It should be free for the uninsured, and for illegal immigrants (there should be no citizenship test). This is critical or people will not get the test.
4.) Fourth, for those that test positive (but don't need hospitalization), the experts should determine how to isolate them. If their employers will not pay for their time off, then the government should pay. We don't want people avoiding tests because of the costs or the fear of lost income.
5.) Fifth, the government should have a program of low interest rate (or no interest) loans for otherwise healthy companies impacted by the epidemic.

“These are the kinds of programs that the government could put in place fairly quickly, in addition to what the healthcare experts suggest.  In addition to the usual safety nets, these policies - well publicized - would lower the transmission rate and provide the proper stimulus to the economy (directed at exactly the right people).”
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: TwoCitiesCapital on March 03, 2020, 01:24:46 PM
https://brooklyninvestor.blogspot.com/2020/03/who-cares-what-mr-market-thinks.html

This is probably wrong thread for this, but anyways...

I ran the BrooklynInvestor DCF on SP500 and the issue is not Covid, the issue is valuation.

Starting with 133.53 SP500 earnings ( from here https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-earnings/table/by-year , I did not double check ), 0% growth this year, 3% growth rate from here to year 10, 5% discount rate, terminal PE 15, SP500 value would be ~2700.
Using 5% growth rate, SP500 value would be 3179.

Now, this assumes 5% discount rate, which is basically expected return. If investor wanted more than 5% return, the numbers are way worse.

(No, I don't think 25x terminal PE or 4% discount rate make sense. I don't think growth rates above 5% make sense either. Yes, I know that risk free rates are close to zero. I'm not gonna use risk free rates for DCF. But, yeah, that's likely why SP500 is where it is.)  ::)

That's what I've been saying to people.

Coronavirus pricked the confidence of the markets, but the real problem was that we were at like 20x shrinking earnings BEFORE coronavirus was a thing.

This is just making it obvious to people how overextended the market was. Everyone I know is still 'buying the dip'. If this is a true bear market, that type of behavior is going to have to be sufficiently punished before it's over.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gregmal on March 03, 2020, 01:28:22 PM
Calculated risk blog has some suggestions of what political leadership should be considering. Very thoughtful.
- https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/03/a-few-comments-on-covid-19-non-medical.html

1.) First, Let the experts brief the public, not politicians.
2.) Second, the government should take the advice of the experts at the CDC and elsewhere and increase funding immediately as required by the health professionals.
3.) Third, testing should be increased dramatically, and testing should be free for all in the US with any symptoms (or closely exposed to an infected person).
4.) Fourth, for those that test positive (but don't need hospitalization), the experts should determine how to isolate them. If their employers will not pay for their time off, then the government should pay. We don't want people avoiding tests because of the costs or the fear of lost income.
5.) Fifth, the government should have a program of low interest rate (or no interest) loans for otherwise healthy companies impacted by the epidemic.

The bold items, #3 would have to be subsidized then by the government. Which means almost immediately lab testing would become a new favorite hobby of guys from Staten Island with a lot of vowels in their last names. #4 would also be nearly impossible because of abuses as well. If anything Ive thought maybe forcing the employer to pay it with the amounts ultimately eligible for a tax credit could be more efficient.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gregmal on March 03, 2020, 02:05:04 PM
Todays drop was actually because of the 22 tornadovirus deaths in Tennessee. Immediately moving the mortality rate into the upper echelons of virus folklore and making the coronavirus look like child's play.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Hjorth on March 03, 2020, 02:24:39 PM
Calculated risk blog has some suggestions of what political leadership should be considering. Very thoughtful.
- https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/03/a-few-comments-on-covid-19-non-medical.html (https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/03/a-few-comments-on-covid-19-non-medical.html)

1.) First, Let the experts brief the public, not politicians.
2.) Second, the government should take the advice of the experts at the CDC and elsewhere and increase funding immediately as required by the health professionals.
3.) Third, testing should be increased dramatically, and testing should be free for all in the US with any symptoms (or closely exposed to an infected person). It should be free for the uninsured, and for illegal immigrants (there should be no citizenship test). This is critical or people will not get the test.
4.) Fourth, for those that test positive (but don't need hospitalization), the experts should determine how to isolate them. If their employers will not pay for their time off, then the government should pay. We don't want people avoiding tests because of the costs or the fear of lost income.
5.) Fifth, the government should have a program of low interest rate (or no interest) loans for otherwise healthy companies impacted by the epidemic.

“These are the kinds of programs that the government could put in place fairly quickly, in addition to what the healthcare experts suggest.  In addition to the usual safety nets, these policies - well publicized - would lower the transmission rate and provide the proper stimulus to the economy (directed at exactly the right people).”

Viking,

To me actually quite striking, that the playbook suggested by Mr. McBride is to a wide extent similar to the playbook of the Danish Health Authority (http://www.sst.dk) and the Danish Government [, naturally with some modifications related to differences in societal systems the US compared to Denmark].
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Viking on March 03, 2020, 02:29:14 PM
Todays drop was actually because of the 22 tornadovirus deaths in Tennessee. Immediately moving the mortality rate into the upper echelons of virus folklore and making the coronavirus look like child's play.

The US is not testing (in volume) yet for the virus. If you don’t test the numbers will not go up. Now i am sure that there are many people who are looking at the low numbers of reported cases and reported deaths and concluding that the virus is not an issue and that people are way over reacting.

Pence met with Democrats today: “Senators Patty Murray and Maria Cantwell of Washington state, which has had the only U.S. deaths so far from the virus, led the questioning in the closed-door lunch, multiple senators said.”

“They demanded to know when more test kits would become available. Murray said later that for now, many residents are simply being told to stay home if they feel unwell — an untenable approach for many.
“Testing, testing, testing. Be honest with people. Everybody hit on it. Tell us when the tests are going to be available,” Cantwell told reporters after the lunch. “People are calling their doctors, and they’re not being able to get a test, so let’s get crisper and clearer about what the process is for people to get testing and when the availability of those tests will be there for them."
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Viking on March 03, 2020, 02:43:44 PM
Calculated risk blog has some suggestions of what political leadership should be considering. Very thoughtful.
- https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/03/a-few-comments-on-covid-19-non-medical.html (https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/03/a-few-comments-on-covid-19-non-medical.html)

1.) First, Let the experts brief the public, not politicians.
2.) Second, the government should take the advice of the experts at the CDC and elsewhere and increase funding immediately as required by the health professionals.
3.) Third, testing should be increased dramatically, and testing should be free for all in the US with any symptoms (or closely exposed to an infected person). It should be free for the uninsured, and for illegal immigrants (there should be no citizenship test). This is critical or people will not get the test.
4.) Fourth, for those that test positive (but don't need hospitalization), the experts should determine how to isolate them. If their employers will not pay for their time off, then the government should pay. We don't want people avoiding tests because of the costs or the fear of lost income.
5.) Fifth, the government should have a program of low interest rate (or no interest) loans for otherwise healthy companies impacted by the epidemic.

“These are the kinds of programs that the government could put in place fairly quickly, in addition to what the healthcare experts suggest.  In addition to the usual safety nets, these policies - well publicized - would lower the transmission rate and provide the proper stimulus to the economy (directed at exactly the right people).”

Viking,

To me actually quite striking, that the playbook suggested by Mr. McBride is to a wide extent similar to the playbook of the [Danish Health Athority (http://www.sst.dk) and the Danish Government [, naturally with some modifications related to differences in societal systems the US compared to Denmark].

John, it is becoming very clear that countries with public health systems are much better prepared to deal with this crisis. Nice to hear that Denmark is being proactive (not a surprise).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: zippy1 on March 03, 2020, 02:56:54 PM
Just to give a glimpse of what it looks like from East Asia(Taiwan),

1. International travels for tourism are down. Airports are rather empty. Many flights are cancelled

2. Companies restrict overseas travels.   

3. Employees are asked to taken body temperature daily when report to work. Anyone with a fever is asked to stay home.

4. Riders of subway/Metro are having their body temperature taken before being admitted.

5. Companies are planning a "Blue-team and Red-team system."  Some sorts of system to either separate these teams by time or by space are being worked out.  For critical infrastructure companies, I have heard that half of employees are asked to go to another site that is 30 miles away as the back up.

6. There are daily broadcast on TV to ask everyone to wash hands often, avoid talking in elevator and avoid large crowds.

7. The government invested funds to ramp up medical mask production. It was 1.8 million per week in January. The projection is by end of the March, it will become 9.2 million per week. Additional funds are being provided to reach 13.5 million per week.

8. School opening for the spring semester was postponed by 2 weeks. masks are being provided to kids and teachers focus on teaching "washing hands and not touching faces and so and so forth."   

9.  My wife is a professor. All courses are asked to have a contingency plan to "go online." She has been busy taping her classes.

10. Large scale religious activities are curtailed voluntarily. I am a church deacon.  We continuously discuss whether to go online or not.  The catholic church in my city stopped weekly Mass last week.

11. Most of my physician friends are very concerned/worried about the overwhelming number of patients this virus can bring and the resulting breakdown of the medical system.  This has not yet materialized yet. However, the feeling is the worst is yet to come.

Anyway, hopefully, we will get out of this ok.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gregmal on March 03, 2020, 03:05:59 PM
BOSTON, March 3 (Reuters) - Billionaire hedge fund investor William Ackman on Tuesday said he has moved to protect the firm's $6.6 billion portfolio, which includes restaurant chain and hotel stocks, as the spread of the coronavirus has sparked prolonged panic selling in markets.
Ackman said he expects the outbreak, which has been detected in roughly 80 countries, to weigh on growth in the United States and abroad and affect both stock and credit markets.
Over the last 10 days, "we have taken steps to protect the portfolio from downward market volatility," wrote Ackman, who oversees Pershing Square Capital Management. He declined to say exactly what steps he took.
Ackman spoke out on the same day that the Federal Reserve announced an emergency interest rate cut. Ackman's statement, an unusual move for someone who seldom discusses portfolio movements publicly, underscores investors' fears that the coronavirus will have serious implications for economic growth.
"We believe that efforts to contain the coronavirus are likely to have a substantial negative impact on the U.S. and global economies, and on equity and credit markets," the statement said.
Ackman said hedging was preferable to selling off his portfolio of companies whose businesses are otherwise strong and include Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), Hilton Worldwide (HLT) , home improvement chain Lowe's (LOW), Burger King operator Restaurant Brands International and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/A), among others. The hedge fund sold out of its position in Starbucks (SBUX) earlier in the year.
In the first two months of the year, the firm's Pershing Square Holdings portfolio fell 7.1%, after having gained 58.1% last year, which made it one of the industry's best-performing hedge funds. The market drop has taken a bite out of the size of Ackman's funds, according to a report which put assets under management at $6.6 billion at the end of February compared with $7.5 billion at the end of December.


12% one month decline in AUM there for Billy Boy
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Viking on March 03, 2020, 03:13:04 PM
Just to give a glimpse of what it looks like from East Asia(Taiwan),

1. International travels for tourism are down. Airports are rather empty. Many flights are cancelled

2. Companies restrict overseas travels.   

3. Employees are asked to taken body temperature daily when report to work. Anyone with a fever is asked to stay home.

4. Riders of subway/Metro are having their body temperature taken before being admitted.

5. Companies are planning a "Blue-team and Red-team system."  Some sorts of system to either separate these teams by time or by space are being worked out.  For critical infrastructure companies, I have heard that half of employees are asked to go to another site that is 30 miles away as the back up.

6. There are daily broadcast on TV to ask everyone to wash hands often, avoid talking in elevator and avoid large crowds.

7. The government invested funds to ramp up medical mask production. It was 1.8 million per week in January. The projection is by end of the March, it will become 9.2 million per week. Additional funds are being provided to reach 13.5 million per week.

8. School opening for the spring semester was postponed by 2 weeks. masks are being provided to kids and teachers focus on teaching "washing hands and not touching faces and so and so forth."   

9.  My wife is a professor. All courses are asked to have a contingency plan to "go online." She has been busy taping her classes.

10. Large scale religious activities are curtailed voluntarily. I am a church deacon.  We continuously discuss whether to go online or not.  The catholic church in my city stopped weekly Mass last week.

11. Most of my physician friends are very concerned/worried about the overwhelming number of patients this virus can bring and the resulting breakdown of the medical system.  This has not yet materialized yet. However, the feeling is the worst is yet to come.

Anyway, hopefully, we will get out of this ok.

Zippy, thank you for posting. I think i have a much better understanding of why Taiwan only has 42 cases being so close to the epicentre of this hurricane. I was wondering why the virus is hitting some countries so hard and other countries much less so.

So it sounds like countries that have a well thought out plan and strong execution can manage their way through this with minimal loss of life and economic damage.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spekulatius on March 03, 2020, 03:21:38 PM
Valuation multiples really don’t matter. We heard already in another thread that with a 1% discount rate , a 2.7% FCF yield is a great bargain. Now if interest rates go to 0.1% even a  0.27% FCF yield is a great deal too. That’s a 10x upside right there, no growth needed.

Europe and Japan are ahead of us and it has worked great for them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: spartansaver on March 03, 2020, 03:47:50 PM
New Howard Corona memo

https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/howard-marks-memos

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gregmal on March 03, 2020, 03:58:46 PM
New Howard Corona memo

https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/howard-marks-memos

Pretty sound stuff there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: rranjan on March 03, 2020, 04:24:10 PM
New Howard Corona memo

https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/howard-marks-memos

Pretty much any time an investor will look at difference between value and price. Not sure if there is any other way to invest.

Some people can do well as speculator, but I am not good at it. I simply stick to estimating normalized earnings and buying at a big discount. Discount can appear due to various reasons. If it's due to Corona virus then so be it.

I can only focus on what I can control. Buy some if you find something cheap and keep some cash to buy more if things become cheaper.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Hjorth on March 03, 2020, 05:16:58 PM
New Howard Corona memo

https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/howard-marks-memos (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/howard-marks-memos)

Pretty sound stuff there.

I think the pre ample in the letter will go over in history, as a measurement & gauge for the future of how the actual sentiment has been changing recently.

- - - o 0 o - - -

I pretty much agree with rranjan. The applicability of the memo appears limited. We simply need to continue to do, what we all individually already do, at our individually very best.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Viking on March 03, 2020, 05:17:35 PM
New Howard Corona memo

https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/howard-marks-memos

Great read; well articulated. Below is the key paragraph for me. Most people feel the virus is just a seasonal flu (and we all know a seasonal flu is no big deal for most of us). My guess is people in China, Italy, South Korea and Iran would not agree that what they are experiencing right now is the same as getting the flu (something they all have a lot of experience with as well). Big, big difference. How a country deals with this virus is hugely important in determining its impact. We should learn a lot in the next 4 weeks.

“I want to acknowledge up front that ascertaining intrinsic value is never a simple, cut-and-dried thing.  Now – given the possibility that the virus will cause the world of the future to be very different from the world we knew – is value too unascertainable to be relied upon?  In short, I don’t think so.  What I think we do know is that the coronavirus is not a rerun of the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918, “which infected an estimated 500 million people worldwide – about one-third of the planet's population – and killed an estimated 20 million to 50 million victims, including some 675,000 Americans.” (history.com)  Rather, it’s one more seasonal disease like the flu, something we’ve had for years, have developed vaccines for, and have learned to deal with.  The flu kills about 30,000-60,000 Americans each year, and that’s terrible, but it’s very different from an unmanageable scourge.”
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gregmal on March 03, 2020, 06:00:09 PM
And folks say Trump is unfit to handle dealing with the virus! So unsanitary! How many hands do you think he shakes?

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1234998841822216192?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1234998841822216192&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fnypost.com%2F2020%2F03%2F03%2Ftrump-rips-dirty-bloomberg-for-manhandling-pizza-licking-fingers-in-viral-video-gross-out%2F
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spekulatius on March 03, 2020, 07:01:05 PM
And folks say Trump is unfit to handle dealing with the virus! So unsanitary! How many hands do you think he shakes?

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1234998841822216192?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1234998841822216192&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fnypost.com%2F2020%2F03%2F03%2Ftrump-rips-dirty-bloomberg-for-manhandling-pizza-licking-fingers-in-viral-video-gross-out%2F

I haven’t lived in NY state too long, but that’s exactly how you eat Pizza in NYC. Use a fork and they will use a pitchfork  and chase you out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: LC on March 03, 2020, 07:46:08 PM
Yea that’s proper technique. You’ve gotta pull the finger-lick maneuver to remove excess grease particularly if you’re given a fixed amount of napkins and can’t afford to saturate the napkin’s full absorption potential on the first slice.

And don’t go claiming jersey- ignorance, Jon Stewart knew it:

http://www.cc.com/video-clips/0ect4f/the-daily-show-with-jon-stewart-me-lover-s-pizza-with-crazy-broad
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BG2008 on March 03, 2020, 07:47:22 PM
A lot of people talk about fatality rates and ease of transmission.  Here is a very tangible quote form Marriott.  The problem is that even if this is only for 1-2 months, it trickles down. 

From WSJ:  Marriott International Inc. said during an earnings call last week that revenue per available room for Greater China, which represents about 9% of the company’s total room count, plunged nearly 90% in February compared with a year earlier.

I remember trying to sell a Tier 4 hotel in 2008 and the GM was telling me that the cheerleaders cancelling their bookings threw a big monkey wrench into their revenue projections. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: cherzeca on March 03, 2020, 08:06:58 PM
Yea that’s proper technique. You’ve gotta pull the finger-lick maneuver to remove excess grease particularly if you’re given a fixed amount of napkins and can’t afford to saturate the napkin’s full absorption potential on the first slice.

And don’t go claiming jersey- ignorance, Jon Stewart knew it:

http://www.cc.com/video-clips/0ect4f/the-daily-show-with-jon-stewart-me-lover-s-pizza-with-crazy-broad

awful technique.  a true newyawker will grab a proper slice, fold it slightly in hand and eat it like a true gentleman, not like bloomie, all furtive with a torn shred and leaving the remaining bit of the slice all mangled and infected.  one bite, everybody knows the rules...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gregmal on March 03, 2020, 08:09:02 PM
A lot of people talk about fatality rates and ease of transmission.  Here is a very tangible quote form Marriott.  The problem is that even if this is only for 1-2 months, it trickles down. 

From WSJ:  Marriott International Inc. said during an earnings call last week that revenue per available room for Greater China, which represents about 9% of the company’s total room count, plunged nearly 90% in February compared with a year earlier.

I remember trying to sell a Tier 4 hotel in 2008 and the GM was telling me that the cheerleaders cancelling their bookings threw a big monkey wrench into their revenue projections.

I think thats misguided though because you can avoid going against the current and go with it. Why rent(booking a night or two) a Marriot when you can buy a home at 3% down with a 3% mortgage on a GRBK lot? Or LGI? A lot of the one offs will be bridged by assistance programs and easing, or so I imagine. But the rate cuts(predictable) and subsequent supply/demand distortions will dictate the winners.

As always, there are high risk areas, moderate risk and low risk. But with this they seem more pronounced. You can take the weak and put a bullet in their head while also going long the strong. I would almost guarantee a short WLL(or CHK)/PRTY/CBL long GRBK/PCYO/GRIF trade crushes it from here. Theres probably a bunch of other great pairs but those are the ones I follow. This narrative in the market has made it virtually impossible for certain themes not to play out. With these type of setups on the table why even fuck around with hotels, restaurants and airlines?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gregmal on March 03, 2020, 08:11:19 PM
Yea that’s proper technique. You’ve gotta pull the finger-lick maneuver to remove excess grease particularly if you’re given a fixed amount of napkins and can’t afford to saturate the napkin’s full absorption potential on the first slice.

And don’t go claiming jersey- ignorance, Jon Stewart knew it:

http://www.cc.com/video-clips/0ect4f/the-daily-show-with-jon-stewart-me-lover-s-pizza-with-crazy-broad

awful technique.  a true newyawker will grab a proper slice, fold it slightly in hand and eat it like a true gentleman, not like bloomie, all furtive with a torn shred and leaving the remaining bit of the slice all mangled and infected.  one bite, everybody knows the rules...

Yea, come on. You fold it in half and bite it. You dont use a fork and a knife and you dont perform faux felatio on your fingers afterwords either. These billionaires are so out of touch!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dalal.Holdings on March 03, 2020, 11:11:49 PM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who-says-coronavirus-death-rate-is-3point4percent-globally-higher-than-previously-thought.html

Quote
World health officials say the mortality rate for COVID-19 is 3.4% globally, higher than previous estimates of about 2%... In comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected, he said.

Something for those in the “just another flu” camp to chew on.

And something for the “well there’s nothing we can really do to help the situation” camp (ie. compare Singapore/Taiwan w USA):

Quote
what we have been genuinely heartened by is that unlike influenza, where countries have fought back, where they’ve put in place strong measures, we’ve remarkably seen that the virus is suppressed,” Ryan said.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Liberty on March 04, 2020, 04:02:45 AM
https://reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fczap3/cdc_website_no_longer_reports_the_number_of/

https://reddit.com/r/cringe/comments/fd0q0l/trump_wonders_if_a_regular_flu_vaccine_will_have/

https://twitter.com/nachristakis/status/1235204443362205699?s=21 (On school closures)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dalal.Holdings on March 04, 2020, 07:03:45 AM
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761659

So far reports of cases show the infection to be mild in children, infants. It’s the old folks who are susceptible to high morbidity and mortality. Ironically, because kids have mild symptoms (cold symptoms), they likely spread it to each other at school/daycare and then the infection is spread to the household to more vulnerable grown ups.

From this standpoint, school closures make sense.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Viking on March 04, 2020, 08:46:42 AM
Does anyone know how many Americans have been tested for the virus? I think as of this past weekend it was 473. I am hearing that testing is increasing in the US but can’t find any stats; it would be ideal to see the daily ramp in numbers.

Also, once a test happens how many days does it take to get the result? I read in one article it is 4 days but can someone please confirm what the number is?

Once we know testing is happening in large numbers and we add the days to process the test this should inform us as to what day we will begin to understand how many cases there might actually be in the US (and where).

Right now i have no idea as testing has been so limited. I am simply trying to understand where the US is at in the process and when we can expect to get better information.
————————————
The Official Coronavirus Numbers Are Wrong, and Everyone Knows It
- https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/03/how-many-americans-really-have-coronavirus/607348/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Castanza on March 04, 2020, 08:52:37 AM
Does anyone know how many Americans have been tested for the virus? I think as of this past weekend it was 473. I am hearing that testing is increasing in the US but can’t find any stats; it would be ideal to see the daily ramp in numbers.

Also, once a test happens how many days does it take to get the result? I read in one article it is 4 days but can someone please confirm what the number is?

Once we know testing is happening in large numbers and we add the days to process the test this should inform us as to what day we will begin to understand how many cases there might actually be in the US.

Right now i have no idea as testing has been so limited. I am simply trying to understand where the US is at in the process and when we can expect to get better information.
————————————
The Official Coronavirus Numbers Are Wrong, and Everyone Knows It
- https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/03/how-many-americans-really-have-coronavirus/607348/

I believe the CDC said 2500 kits will be available this week which is 1.5m tests. Not sure about official results though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Kaegi2011 on March 04, 2020, 09:03:00 AM
Does anyone know how many Americans have been tested for the virus? I think as of this past weekend it was 473. I am hearing that testing is increasing in the US but can’t find any stats; it would be ideal to see the daily ramp in numbers.

Also, once a test happens how many days does it take to get the result? I read in one article it is 4 days but can someone please confirm what the number is?

Once we know testing is happening in large numbers and we add the days to process the test this should inform us as to what day we will begin to understand how many cases there might actually be in the US (and where).

Right now i have no idea as testing has been so limited. I am simply trying to understand where the US is at in the process and when we can expect to get better information.
————————————
The Official Coronavirus Numbers Are Wrong, and Everyone Knows It
- https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/03/how-many-americans-really-have-coronavirus/607348/

My friend, you're asking a dangerous question.  **Apparently**, the answer to your question is not only useless, but also has the potential to be dangerous in the hands of short sellers!  Beware!   ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ERICOPOLY on March 04, 2020, 09:20:43 AM
Trump has a conflict of interest.  You know the hotel cancellations are hurting his family financially.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ERICOPOLY on March 04, 2020, 09:25:08 AM
Priceline has $36 per night for a Carnival 5 night cruise to the Bahamas.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dalal.Holdings on March 04, 2020, 09:41:57 AM
Does anyone know how many Americans have been tested for the virus? I think as of this past weekend it was 473. I am hearing that testing is increasing in the US but can’t find any stats; it would be ideal to see the daily ramp in numbers.

Also, once a test happens how many days does it take to get the result? I read in one article it is 4 days but can someone please confirm what the number is?

Once we know testing is happening in large numbers and we add the days to process the test this should inform us as to what day we will begin to understand how many cases there might actually be in the US (and where).

Right now i have no idea as testing has been so limited. I am simply trying to understand where the US is at in the process and when we can expect to get better information.
————————————
The Official Coronavirus Numbers Are Wrong, and Everyone Knows It
- https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/03/how-many-americans-really-have-coronavirus/607348/

Hospitals in many places incl NY still (as of today) cannot test locally for the disease and must ship to CDC in Atlanta for testing. Test kits sent out by CDC in recent weeks were defective. Epic fail.

Quote
The news comes as a further embarrassment to the CDC, which had rejected coronavirus test kits distributed by the World Health Organization in an attempt to make its own.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-cdc-atlanta-lab-faulty-test-kit-investigation-2020-3
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Castanza on March 04, 2020, 10:07:36 AM
Priceline has $36 per night for a Carnival 5 night cruise to the Bahamas.

LOL that's almost worth the risk...imagine getting a whole cruise ship to yourself
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: boilermaker75 on March 04, 2020, 11:22:22 AM
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-04/los-angeles-county-declares-coronavirus-emergency-6-new-cases

My daughter had a big event she was producing in LA, a 7 figure event she had been working on for a few months, canceled this morning. It was supposed to start in three days.

Her firm still gets paid, but it is not seeing months of work not coming to fruition and concern about future business.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Liberty on March 04, 2020, 11:33:27 AM
Trump has a conflict of interest.  You know the hotel cancellations are hurting his family financially.

That's one among many many others.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Viking on March 04, 2020, 12:04:21 PM
Don’t they know Coronavirus is just like the flu.... Clearly, the Italians are over-reacting!

Italy says it will shut schools and universities as death toll passes 100
MILAN — Italy on Wednesday said that it will close schools and universities throughout the country in an attempt to control the spread of the coronavirus, as it battles the most serious outbreak in Europe.

A total of 2,706 people have tested positive for the virus in Italy. The virus has hit the aging population of northern Italy particularly acutely. More than 10 percent of those who have tested positive are in intensive care, straining Italy’s health-care system, which is scrambling to add extra beds.

Italian news agency Ansa reported that the government is also expected to announce another wide-ranging advisory that will ask Italians to change their lifestyle for the next 30 days. It will stipulate that people should avoid hugging, shaking hands and planning mass gatherings.

Health officials say they are also considering extending a two-week lockdown in its cordoned-off quarantine zone, which covers the worst-affected places, or expanding the area.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dalal.Holdings on March 04, 2020, 01:57:10 PM
Exponential trend in ex China cases intact. Graph does not include large swath of cases in U.S. likely missed due to under testing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dalal.Holdings on March 04, 2020, 02:46:36 PM
#of coronavirus cases outside China compounding daily at the same rate that Bekrshire Hathaway compounded annually with WEB at the helm. Nothing to see here folks! Just liberal propaganda.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: stahleyp on March 04, 2020, 03:24:54 PM
https://www.morningstar.com/articles/969893/the-coronavirus-column

Granted the sample size is small but looks like those big drop weeks tend to lead to pretty large declines over the short to intermediate term.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: TwoCitiesCapital on March 04, 2020, 04:10:52 PM
https://www.morningstar.com/articles/969893/the-coronavirus-column

Granted the sample size is small but looks like those big drop weeks tend to lead to pretty large declines over the short to intermediate term.

There was a chart on zerohedge that showed prior "emergency" cuts by the Fed and then showed the average and median return afterwards 1W, 3M, and 1year afterwards.

As presented, it's not very informative IMO - but what I was able to take from it was 6 of the 7 times the Fed did an emergency cut we were heading right into recession (they were clustered in 2000 and 2008 time period). The single outlier was in the late 90s and the exceptional performance following that the result of the tech bubble.

Seems likely that things only more roguh going forward but we're probably in a period of consolidation near term and the market recalibrates and people buy the dip.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spekulatius on March 04, 2020, 04:33:24 PM
II mentioned this before - my wife is working as an RN (contractor) on specialty care in several hospitals. I have talked to her and so far zip safety precautions, no COVID-19 testing (apparently no test kits) and not even N95 masks for personal. Can‘t believe it. Now a neighboring hospital has a confirmed case and they have a suspected case, but no way of knowing yet. They will start safety training this week and get N95 mask this week supposedly, probably test kids too. The patients my wife deals with have high mortality to begin with, so if they get infected, they are most likely gone.

I don’t know who is to blame here, the hospital admin, the state bureaucracy , CDC or federal  government institutions, my guess it’s all the above. There will be lots of blaming and law suits when this is over.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dalal.Holdings on March 04, 2020, 04:41:13 PM
II mentioned this before - my wife is working as an RN (contractor) on specialty care in several hospitals. I have talked to her and so far zip safety precautions, no COVID-19 testing (apparently no test kits) and not even N95 masks for personal. Can‘t believe it. Now a neighboring hospital has a confirmed case and they have a suspected case, but no way of knowing yet. They will start safety training this week and get N95 mask this week supposedly, probably test kids too. The patients my wife deals with have high mortality to begin with, so if they get infected, they are most likely gone.

I don’t know who is to blame here, the hospital admin, the state bureaucracy , CDC or federal  government institutions, my guess it’s all the above. There will be lots of blaming and law suits when this is over.

Greatest healthcare system in the world! Worth the high prices they charge us too!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: no_free_lunch on March 04, 2020, 05:56:31 PM
It is the same in Canada. When you see relatives die while on a waiting list it will challenge your confidence in public health care. In the Canadian system it is all about fighting, fighting to get treatments, fighting for surgery, fighting against being bumped.

Trust me, it's not so rosy here either.  The worst is if you are high income you are paying those taxes to feed this incompetent, lazy healthcare bureaucracy and in the end they will just let you die.

There is also no preparation at the hospitals. If they have an infected patient, yes they will glove and gown but only AFTER they find out there is an infection.  No general precautions, at least as a few days ago.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: RichardGibbons on March 04, 2020, 06:19:26 PM
It is the same in Canada. When you see relatives die while on a waiting list it will challenge your confidence in public health care. In the Canadian system it is all about fighting, fighting to get treatments, fighting for surgery, fighting against being bumped

Yeah. It isn't. In the Canadian system, it's all about getting diagnosed, going to your appointments, and getting the help you need as you need it without being bankrupted.  That said, the parking at hospitals can be pricey--like $15 a day!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dalal.Holdings on March 04, 2020, 06:26:39 PM
It is the same in Canada. When you see relatives die while on a waiting list it will challenge your confidence in public health care. In the Canadian system it is all about fighting, fighting to get treatments, fighting for surgery, fighting against being bumped

Yeah. It isn't. In the Canadian system, it's all about getting diagnosed, going to your appointments, and getting the help you need as you need it without being bankrupted.  That said, the parking at hospitals can be pricey--like $15 a day!

"Not being bankrupted" sounds very appealing to me. So does drug prices that are a fraction of what they are across your southern border. So does aggressive testing in a province with just 5 million people for COVID-19 (BC) where you test more than the entire United States (whose CDC botched production of kits and arrogantly refused WHO issued kits).

Even as of March 4, it seems more have been tested in British Columbia than all of USA...let that sink in.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gregmal on March 04, 2020, 06:31:52 PM
If you a scared motherfucka go to church

                               -Ice Cube
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gregmal on March 04, 2020, 06:56:59 PM
https://twitter.com/RepMattGaetz/status/1235309294146539520?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1235309294146539520&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnn.com%2F2020%2F03%2F04%2Fpolitics%2Fgaetz-coronavirus-gas-mask%2Findex.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spekulatius on March 04, 2020, 07:02:55 PM
If you a scared motherfucka go to church

                               -Ice Cube

I have a much better idea - force some skin in the game, as Taleb would say. Force some of the head honchos to have the same exposure with the same protection that the people working in the trenches do. I‘d like the head of the CDC or Mr Pence stand in front of a bunch of wheezing untested patients without mask. No worries, the strong will survive!

The Romans would have the engineer sleep under the newly build bridge and if it didn’t hold, I guess the next bridge would be build by another engineer.  Well, some of the Roman bridges are still standing now, so that system seems to be working quite well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spekulatius on March 04, 2020, 07:47:56 PM
Coronavirus predicted in “Asterix and Obelix” in 1981:
(https://i.imgur.com/xjdRZvr.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: undervalued on March 04, 2020, 08:32:25 PM
If you a scared motherfucka go to church

                               -Ice Cube

I heard that's where you can get Corona in South Korea.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Viking on March 04, 2020, 09:45:54 PM
“A 17-year-old from Mercer Island created a website to combat misinformation about coronavirus -- and it's getting millions of views around the world.”

I especially found the map feature interesting. You can zoom in to a specific geography and see source material for the numbers provided.

- https://ncov2019.live/data

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Viking on March 05, 2020, 12:02:20 AM
The epicentre of the Coronovirus in the US is Kirkland, Washington (pop 90,000) located on the outskirts of Seattle (3.5 million). Today Washington State Public Health provided an update. Bottom line, the situation does not look good to contain this outbreak. It is clear from listening to the update (link posted below) the health care system there is already overwhelmed. They have 39 confirmed cases and 10 deaths (King and Snohomish counties). Bad, but not that bad... right? Keep reading...

Even though they have a health emergency there is still limited testing going on in Washington State. They acknowledged  there is ‘huge demand’ right now for testing. But there is limited capacity and they are ‘working hard’ to increase capacity. Up until yesterday, the criteria from the CDC for who could be tested was quite restrictive. Yesterday the CDC relaxed their testing requirements. People who have mild symptoms are being told they do not need to be tested.

At Life Care, the longterm care facility (with 108 patients) where the outbreak first occurred last week the situation is grim. 5 patients have died from the virus and more are in serious condition. Most of the staff left when they started showing symptoms and are now in self quarantine at their own homes. So the long term care facility has been running on a skeleton staff. Quality of care for patients is poor and the facility’s ‘ability to function has gotten more difficult over time’. Sounds like things fell off the rails today. People who had no symptoms were not removed from the facility (but were separated at the facility from those who were showing symptoms) but family members fear they have now become infected. They are not able to test the residents. Those residents who are able to get into a hospital can be tested; those in the facility who cannot get to a hospital are not being tested and are being told that testing is not necessary anyway as they will still receive the same level of care for the condition they are in (whether they have the virus or not). Tomorrow (Thursday) they expect a Federal disaster medical team to arrive and provide much needed support. Family members are freaking out. There has been no communication from Washington State Public Health with family members who have loved ones at the facility; they are too busy.
- CNN news article on Life Care: https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/04/health/washington-state-nursing-facility-coronavirus-family/index.html

Family members who have been to the Life Care facility over the past month and likely exposed to the virus are not being contacted by health authorities (they are too busy). In the press briefing Washington State Public Health ‘asked’ these people to handle the issue on their own.

The recommended actions that are being given to the larger community from Washington State Public Health are determined in consultation with the CDC based off the number of reported cases in the community. Because the reported number of cases continue to be low they are recommending only basic actions at this time (wash your hands, stay at home if you are sick, stay away from large groups if you are high risk, work from home if you can etc). But we know the number of reported cases are vastly understated (due to lack of testing). So the recommended actions are also likely behind the curve.

Bottom line, the virus is winning the fight right now. This is going to get worse. But we aren’t going to hear how bad it is until they actually start to test in volume.

I am starting to think BC and neighbouring US states may have to issue travel advisories for Washington State. At least until they get the situation under some kind of control. Because right now it looks to me like the virus has gotten a 4-6 week head start. I wonder if this is what happened in Northern Italy and South Korea (delay in identifying outbreak and then slow response by overwhelmed health care providers).
 
King County Public Health, state health officials give update on coronavirus response - March 4 - 45 minutes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yji27672Wk4

- testing update: at 24 minutes
- care home: at 28 minutes
- what to do: at 46 minutes
The comments section at the end of the video provide some clarity on how local residents are feeling
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Hjorth on March 05, 2020, 12:47:25 AM
Viking,

That reads like a terrible nightmare in full daylight. Imagine getting run over by a bus that you need a microscope to see. And the US healthcare authorities have had all the strategies executed on first in China, next all the European etc. strategies to study, copy & make adjustments to before execution - now for several weeks -, and now this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Viking on March 05, 2020, 01:30:51 AM
John, i live three hours from Kirkland. I was there with my son for his hockey tournament in November. Wonderful time; great people. Yes, it is a tragedy in the making. I cannot understand why they are not taking more aggressive steps. My guess is the health care professionals know they are screwed already. Seattle is too big to quarantine (3.5 million people). So this is going to get much worse and they will simply ‘do their best’.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Hjorth on March 05, 2020, 02:45:21 AM
Viking,

Right now the overall situation reminds me of the plot in Deep Impact (https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0120647/?ref_=nv_sr_6), just before the POTUS declares for the World Society, that the first attempt - by secretive preparations among several countries - to blow out the comet from space has failed, by declaring on television : "We have failed.".

- - - o 0 o - - -

Well, perhaps an exaggeration for my part. And then not : In short, all attempts so far to contain the virus have failed, as far as I know, no matter the strategy executed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dalal.Holdings on March 05, 2020, 04:12:17 AM
Princess Cruise Ship held off the coast of CA...

NY area guy who caught it spread it to multiple families, attended religious services/events while likely infected (but "untested"):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/social-issues/new-york-coronavirus-westchester/2020/03/04/a9e0c5e0-5e48-11ea-b014-4fafa866bb81_story.html

It begins, America. Washington state may seem like the "epicenter" now, but due to compounding, severe under testing due to bungling by Federal Gov't, and several week delay for onset of symptoms, this has likely spread throughout the major population areas...and continues to spread as more and more undetected infections are generated on a daily basis.

Do u think Pence/Trump understand this? What about the career Republicans who are in charge of what should be scientifically based agencies? What we are witnessing is what happens when we elect scientifically illiterate people into power who strip out the budgets for these things. It is fine most of the time, but when shit hits the fan, you know the value of preventative measures that could have been. Guess we can all wait for the pvt sector "invisible hand" to save us.

Black swans are easy to underestimate early on. China was mocked for dismissing early cases, but once they understood the seriousness, literally locked down tens of millions of people...

Guess few understand the precautionary principle with systemic, multiplicative, and nonlinear processes such as this one.

As was once said "an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure" -BF.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Liberty on March 05, 2020, 05:04:58 AM
https://twitter.com/politidope/status/1235415582931066880?s=21

“ Here is the President of the United States telling the country it's okay to go to work with Coronavirus.

I'm not kidding”

https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1235402688369549312?s=21

“To get a sense of how badly the US government is handling the coronavirus pandemic, consider that of this week they had only done 500 tests in a population of 330million.

Australia has tested 10,000 people with a population of 25million“
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gregmal on March 05, 2020, 05:05:42 AM
Ray Dalio

https://westfaironline.com/121925/ray-dalio-covid-19-will-create-emotional-but-not-economic-impacts/

While Im not a huge Dalio fanboy, what he says, seems on the money. Obviously fertile grounds for long/short strategies. Be careful about what you're buying. Dont be irrational. Seem like how we should always invest....
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: perulv on March 05, 2020, 05:20:33 AM
A small status update from Norway. I have no strong opinions right now on how good/bad this is handled. Life goes on as normal with a bit more hand-washing for most people, and it actually seems like the "fear mongering" in the papers are less now than a week ago. It seems pretty certain that the Norwegian tourism-industry is facing a horrible year though.

72 confirmed cases (20 in my city, population 250k ish) , 64 of those got the virus traveling abroad. 56 of those 64 in northern Italy (main reason probably being winter holiday last couple of weeks). Earlier today they said 1400 people in Norway (population 5 million)  was tested in total so far, probably a bit more now. As I understand it they only test people that both show some symptoms _and_ either have been in one of the areas abroad with outbreaks, or have been in contact with people that have. "They" are the institute of public health (https://www.fhi.no/en/). It seems one reason for not testing more widely is the fear (probably fact) of running out of testing-equipment.

As mentioned elsewhere in this thread, one of the main goals are to spread the infections out in time, to try to not overwhelm hospitals (and everything else). That said, colleagues who have spouses that work in health-care say that they have to work double shifts because their colleagues are in home isolation (perhaps only precautionary, until tested and found to not be infected).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dalal.Holdings on March 05, 2020, 05:20:47 AM
Ray Dalio

https://westfaironline.com/121925/ray-dalio-covid-19-will-create-emotional-but-not-economic-impacts/

While Im not a huge Dalio fanboy, what he says, seems on the money. Obviously fertile grounds for long/short strategies. Be careful about what you're buying. Dont be irrational. Seem like how we should always invest....

To compare this to Spanish flu 100 y ago where world was vastly less interconnected and it took weeks to travel to diff continent is laughable. If you try to model a black swan’s effects by studying the past, you will likely get hurt. But that’s human nature I guess: trying to predict the future by looking at the past. What’s that investing adage about studying past performance ?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: thepupil on March 05, 2020, 05:23:51 AM
You’re right, 102 years of medicine and healthcare advances may help fight this relative to 1918
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: perulv on March 05, 2020, 05:29:03 AM
Earlier today they said 1400 people in Norway (population 5 million)  was tested in total so far, probably a bit more now. As I understand it they only test people that both show some symptoms _and_ either have been in one of the areas abroad with outbreaks, or have been in contact with people that have. "They" are the institute of public health (https://www.fhi.no/en/). It seems one reason for not testing more widely is the fear (probably fact) of running out of testing-equipment.

This Google Translated article probably does a better job than I explaining it: https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=&sl=no&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.aftenposten.no%2Fnorge%2Fi%2FjdAaGA%2Ffryktet-at-1400-nordmenn-kunne-vaere-korona-smittet-men-de-fleste-var-bare-forkjoelet
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dalal.Holdings on March 05, 2020, 05:30:59 AM
You’re right, 102 years of medicine and healthcare advances may help fight this relative to 1918

I work in healthcare. The only advances that we have come up with in that time that are effective against this are 1) hand washing, 2) contact isolation, 3) mechanical ventilation (but by this point it is already way too late). Also, we severely lack # of ICU beds and resources which will become apparent soon. It is already apparent we lack resources if you look at how testing for this has rolled out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gregmal on March 05, 2020, 05:36:16 AM
You’re right, 102 years of medicine and healthcare advances may help fight this relative to 1918

There's that, and there's also the other side of the media fear mongering; people actually have information available necessary to take precautions against this. Much harder to get information out to the masses(especially on a global basis) back in 1918.

People will bitch about the "information" being released, mainly because its a convenient cover to express political frustrations, but the bottom line is that the public is aware of this and has been for weeks now, which if nothing else, allows folks to be on alert.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: thepupil on March 05, 2020, 05:38:10 AM
I don’t work in healthcare but I  read Wikipedia

The bar for 1918 is pretty high right? Infecting 25% Killing 1-4% of the population. And yet the global economy and markets pressed on, right? Don’t get me wrong, I have some disaster hedges, but I’m also fully infested and corona will certainly not stop that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dalal.Holdings on March 05, 2020, 05:44:01 AM
People in the old days (pre smallpox eradication, pre measles vaccine), etc had a much greater tolerance for death even among kids/family members because it was far more common before vaccines/basic medical interventions came about. The world was very different than it is now and this was right after many had also perished in WWI. When the 1918 flu came around, the freakout and resulting economic impact was much smaller than it will be now...

We are glued to screens monitoring information and very sensitive about deaths with people we know bc we have faced far less hardship than those generations 100y ago (look at infant/child mortality in 1900 UK). Economic growth already in very low single digits. Basic setup for panic and strong economic fallout.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: thepupil on March 05, 2020, 05:47:50 AM
on a 0-24 month basis, I completely agree with you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dalal.Holdings on March 05, 2020, 06:02:02 AM
Last year was a good year. S&P up 30%. Bull mkt 11 years on. Absolutely no reason to be greedy at this pt...I’ve gone to significant chunks of cash as of late and took some profits on multibagger TSLA as well.

Only the paranoid survive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Castanza on March 05, 2020, 06:08:50 AM
You’re right, 102 years of medicine and healthcare advances may help fight this relative to 1918

I work in healthcare. The only advances that we have come up with in that time that are effective against this are 1) hand washing, 2) contact isolation, 3) mechanical ventilation (but by this point it is already way too late). Also, we severely lack # of ICU beds and resources which will become apparent soon. It is already apparent we lack resources if you look at how testing for this has rolled out.

Lack of testing (thus giving visibility) and means of spread prevention are two different things in my opinion. They work together on some level for sure. But for something as infectious as this, if you miss a single person who is infected anywhere it is already too late. In fact the incubation period alone (14 days) is enough to come to the conclusion that stopping spread is pretty much impossible.

Even if the US and other countries started preparing for COVID-19 the minute the heard about it, the time frame for vaccine development would still likely be 1 year. If test kits were developed in masses on the first day it still would be too late because individuals are walking around for potentially 14 days with no symptoms. Eventually would most likely show "mild" symptoms that they probably wouldn't seek testing for to begin with.

People are putting way too much emphasis on testing (as if testing is going to stop it). My wife (a healthcare professional) agrees. The best thing is to take spread prevention precautions such as limiting contact with others, washing you hands, drinking lots of water, and staying away from high risk individuals who already have acute or chronic illnesses.

Anyone who is at high risk of dying from COVID-19 is going to be treated the say exact way they are treated for the flu. If you have a 80 year old grandmother who spent her life smoking and she developed a severe cough what would you do? You would take them to the doctor and they would be treated with standard protocol. But you would do this both before and after COVID-19 existed.

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/256521#covid-19

Shutting down schools, daycare and any type of senior care facilities is probably the best course of action. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: thepupil on March 05, 2020, 06:14:34 AM
Last year was a good year. S&P up 30%. Bull mkt 11 years on. Absolutely no reason to be greedy at this pt...I’ve gone to significant chunks of cash as of late and took some profits on multibagger TSLA as well.

Only the paranoid survive.

I am paranoid of a permanent impairment in corporate earnings power or value in the real assets I own. For this reason I own puts.

I am paranoid of reinvestment risk and not ever being able to buy the great companies and assets that I own at these prices again, given what is an unprecedented rate environment. For this reason I'm fully invested.

my first paranoia cost me 100-200 bps / year.
my second costs me full beta to the market's swings up to about a 20-30% drawdown, which is more than handle-able.

I am paranoid too. i have become a bit of a perma-bull, but I think we all need to keep the upside tail in mind.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dalal.Holdings on March 05, 2020, 06:15:22 AM
You’re right, 102 years of medicine and healthcare advances may help fight this relative to 1918

I work in healthcare. The only advances that we have come up with in that time that are effective against this are 1) hand washing, 2) contact isolation, 3) mechanical ventilation (but by this point it is already way too late). Also, we severely lack # of ICU beds and resources which will become apparent soon. It is already apparent we lack resources if you look at how testing for this has rolled out.

Lack of testing (thus giving visibility) and means of spread prevention are two different things in my opinion. They work together on some level for sure. But for something as infectious as this, if you miss a single person who is infected anywhere it is already too late. In fact the incubation period alone (14 days) is enough to come to the conclusion that stopping spread is pretty much impossible.

Even if the US and other countries started preparing for COVID-19 the minute the heard about it, the time frame for vaccine development would still likely be 1 year. If test kits were developed in masses on the first day it still would be too late because individuals are walking around for potentially 14 days with no symptoms. Eventually would most likely show "mild" symptoms that they probably wouldn't seek testing for to begin with.


This is wrong though. Basic epidemiology and how R nought works. Each person you contain prevents about 2-3 other infections.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: LC on March 05, 2020, 06:22:34 AM
To add an anecdote, a friend's mother was recently in northern Italy and returned home to the Netherlands. She then experienced flu-like symptoms, and was told to self-quarantine and that a test kit would be delivered to her.

Within three/four days, she had the test kit performed and results back (negative - thankfully).

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spekulatius on March 05, 2020, 06:24:30 AM
I don’t work in healthcare but I  read Wikipedia

The bar for 1918 is pretty high right? Infecting 25% Killing 1-4% of the population. And yet the global economy and markets pressed on, right? Don’t get me wrong, I have some disaster hedges, but I’m also fully infested and corona will certainly not stop that.

People stating that we were fine in 1918 are missing that the world and Financial markets are very different now ( much more connected stronger feedback loops ) and back then WW1 was actually a much larger problem ( and the reason why  information about the flu was censored ).

I am sure we as a species survive this, we survived 9/11 which imo is the closest comparable, but it wasn’t pretty.

I also think that we will see more political changes based on how the people in power handle this ,or how it is perceived.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Castanza on March 05, 2020, 06:26:03 AM
You’re right, 102 years of medicine and healthcare advances may help fight this relative to 1918

I work in healthcare. The only advances that we have come up with in that time that are effective against this are 1) hand washing, 2) contact isolation, 3) mechanical ventilation (but by this point it is already way too late). Also, we severely lack # of ICU beds and resources which will become apparent soon. It is already apparent we lack resources if you look at how testing for this has rolled out.

Lack of testing (thus giving visibility) and means of spread prevention are two different things in my opinion. They work together on some level for sure. But for something as infectious as this, if you miss a single person who is infected anywhere it is already too late. In fact the incubation period alone (14 days) is enough to come to the conclusion that stopping spread is pretty much impossible.

Even if the US and other countries started preparing for COVID-19 the minute the heard about it, the time frame for vaccine development would still likely be 1 year. If test kits were developed in masses on the first day it still would be too late because individuals are walking around for potentially 14 days with no symptoms. Eventually would most likely show "mild" symptoms that they probably wouldn't seek testing for to begin with.


This is wrong though. Basic epidemiology and how R nought works. Each person you contain prevents about 2-3 other infections.

You can only contain what you can see. If you're not showing symptoms, you're not getting tested. It's compounding regardless and as you said above there are no hospitals with enough beds. I guess the question is, would testing with quarantine of individuals who test positive slow the compound rate enough to reduce the impact on hospitals? Probably not. And I'm not saying they shouldn't test. I'm just saying everyone's focus on it seems bit overcooked.

For example: my wife works in the most advanced level 4 NICU east of the Mississippi. They have a whopping total of 62 beds...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dalal.Holdings on March 05, 2020, 06:28:43 AM
You’re right, 102 years of medicine and healthcare advances may help fight this relative to 1918

I work in healthcare. The only advances that we have come up with in that time that are effective against this are 1) hand washing, 2) contact isolation, 3) mechanical ventilation (but by this point it is already way too late). Also, we severely lack # of ICU beds and resources which will become apparent soon. It is already apparent we lack resources if you look at how testing for this has rolled out.

Lack of testing (thus giving visibility) and means of spread prevention are two different things in my opinion. They work together on some level for sure. But for something as infectious as this, if you miss a single person who is infected anywhere it is already too late. In fact the incubation period alone (14 days) is enough to come to the conclusion that stopping spread is pretty much impossible.

Even if the US and other countries started preparing for COVID-19 the minute the heard about it, the time frame for vaccine development would still likely be 1 year. If test kits were developed in masses on the first day it still would be too late because individuals are walking around for potentially 14 days with no symptoms. Eventually would most likely show "mild" symptoms that they probably wouldn't seek testing for to begin with.


This is wrong though. Basic epidemiology and how R nought works. Each person you contain prevents about 2-3 other infections.

You can only contain what you can see. If you're not showing symptoms, you're not getting tested. It's compounding regardless and as you said above there are no hospitals with enough beds. I guess the question is, would testing with quarantine of individuals who test positive slow the compound rate enough to reduce the impact on hospitals? Probably not. And I'm not saying they shouldn't test. I'm just saying everyone's focus on it seems bit overcooked.

For example: my wife works in the most advanced level 4 NICU east of the Mississippi. They have a whopping total of 62 beds...

Are you trained in epidemiology? This stuff is not rocket science and it is certainly not new. Your argument is like saying “so what if i lose 99% of my portfolio, the remaining 1% will continue to compound and I will be rich someday”.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jmp8822 on March 05, 2020, 07:19:48 AM
https://twitter.com/politidope/status/1235415582931066880?s=21

“ Here is the President of the United States telling the country it's okay to go to work with Coronavirus.

I'm not kidding”

https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1235402688369549312?s=21

“To get a sense of how badly the US government is handling the coronavirus pandemic, consider that of this week they had only done 500 tests in a population of 330million.

Australia has tested 10,000 people with a population of 25million“

He did not say you should go to work if you are sick. Please stop posting your political views in every thread - it is annoying.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Castanza on March 05, 2020, 07:30:08 AM
You’re right, 102 years of medicine and healthcare advances may help fight this relative to 1918

I work in healthcare. The only advances that we have come up with in that time that are effective against this are 1) hand washing, 2) contact isolation, 3) mechanical ventilation (but by this point it is already way too late). Also, we severely lack # of ICU beds and resources which will become apparent soon. It is already apparent we lack resources if you look at how testing for this has rolled out.

Lack of testing (thus giving visibility) and means of spread prevention are two different things in my opinion. They work together on some level for sure. But for something as infectious as this, if you miss a single person who is infected anywhere it is already too late. In fact the incubation period alone (14 days) is enough to come to the conclusion that stopping spread is pretty much impossible.

Even if the US and other countries started preparing for COVID-19 the minute the heard about it, the time frame for vaccine development would still likely be 1 year. If test kits were developed in masses on the first day it still would be too late because individuals are walking around for potentially 14 days with no symptoms. Eventually would most likely show "mild" symptoms that they probably wouldn't seek testing for to begin with.


This is wrong though. Basic epidemiology and how R nought works. Each person you contain prevents about 2-3 other infections.

You can only contain what you can see. If you're not showing symptoms, you're not getting tested. It's compounding regardless and as you said above there are no hospitals with enough beds. I guess the question is, would testing with quarantine of individuals who test positive slow the compound rate enough to reduce the impact on hospitals? Probably not. And I'm not saying they shouldn't test. I'm just saying everyone's focus on it seems bit overcooked.

For example: my wife works in the most advanced level 4 NICU east of the Mississippi. They have a whopping total of 62 beds...

Are you trained in epidemiology? This stuff is not rocket science and it is certainly not new. Your argument is like saying “so what if i lose 99% of my portfolio, the remaining 1% will continue to compound and I will be rich someday”.

SARS R0 varied a lot during the epidemic. It ranged from 2-15 and hen fell all the way back down to 3. I think we agree more than what you think. There is no vaccine so R0 isn't all that helpful. Testing is helpful to a degree but absent a vaccine impact is minimal. Locking down high risk individuals and limiting their exposure is probably the best. So far 81% of cases have been "mild".

"The model we’ve used for our R_0 estimate is phenomenological, which means that it doesn’t aim to *explain* what’s happening on the ground but rather to *describe* it. This is a good option in information-scarce situations, like at the start of a novel viral outbreak (AKA now)."

— Dr. Maia Majumder (@maiamajumder) January 24, 2020



How much does R0 matter?
R0 is a useful number to understand when it comes to things like determining vaccine targets (the higher the R0, the more people you have to vaccinate to stop the disease from spreading). But the work of containing an outbreak can begin even before we have R0 nailed down.

The R0 depends on a few things, including how long a person is contagious, how many susceptible people they tend to interact with, and how transmissible the infectious agent is.

That means we can make an epidemic less likely to spread by attacking those particular factors. We can make fewer people susceptible to the virus; that’s what a vaccine does. (There’s no vaccine for the coronavirus yet, but perhaps there will be someday.) You can reduce the amount of time you’re able to spread the virus by staying home if you’re sick. And you can reduce transmissibility through measures like hand washing. These are all good actions to take no matter what the R0 turns out to be, and they’re good advice even for ordinary colds and flu.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: orthopa on March 05, 2020, 07:32:36 AM
Just reading through some of these comments last couple of days some of you guys really bought into the panic of this huh? Reading and watching all of this reminds me of Y2K. I work in healthcare, have not seen any corona virus yet and honestly I hope if it comes to my area I hope I get it right away. Significantly limits my ability to get reinfected. All evidence points to at my age it will be mild and flu like and will allow me to eventually get back to my job with a low level of worry. I have a very low level of worry now. This seems to be affecting old/ immuno compromised people the most( like everything else) These people bluntly are going to die at some point in time sooner then their more resistant counterparts. Not much at this point any of us can do otherwise. The panic is irrational.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: matts on March 05, 2020, 07:37:39 AM
Just reading through some of these comments last couple of days some of you guys really bought into the panic of this huh? Reading and watching all of this reminds me of Y2K. I work in healthcare, have not seen any corona virus yet and honestly I hope if it comes to my area I hope I get it right away. Significantly limits my ability to get reinfected. All evidence points to at my age it will be mild and flu like and will allow me to eventually get back to my job with a low level of worry. I have a very low level of worry now. This seems to be affecting old/ immuno compromised people the most( like everything else) These people bluntly are going to die at some point in time sooner then their more resistant counterparts. Not much at this point any of us can do otherwise. The panic is irrational.

I don't think many here are panicking that they might die from the virus. But the economic impact will be real and non-trivial.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: shhughes1116 on March 05, 2020, 07:40:16 AM
You’re right, 102 years of medicine and healthcare advances may help fight this relative to 1918

I work in healthcare. The only advances that we have come up with in that time that are effective against this are 1) hand washing, 2) contact isolation, 3) mechanical ventilation (but by this point it is already way too late). Also, we severely lack # of ICU beds and resources which will become apparent soon. It is already apparent we lack resources if you look at how testing for this has rolled out.

Lack of testing (thus giving visibility) and means of spread prevention are two different things in my opinion. They work together on some level for sure. But for something as infectious as this, if you miss a single person who is infected anywhere it is already too late. In fact the incubation period alone (14 days) is enough to come to the conclusion that stopping spread is pretty much impossible.

Even if the US and other countries started preparing for COVID-19 the minute the heard about it, the time frame for vaccine development would still likely be 1 year. If test kits were developed in masses on the first day it still would be too late because individuals are walking around for potentially 14 days with no symptoms. Eventually would most likely show "mild" symptoms that they probably wouldn't seek testing for to begin with.


This is wrong though. Basic epidemiology and how R nought works. Each person you contain prevents about 2-3 other infections.

You can only contain what you can see. If you're not showing symptoms, you're not getting tested. It's compounding regardless and as you said above there are no hospitals with enough beds. I guess the question is, would testing with quarantine of individuals who test positive slow the compound rate enough to reduce the impact on hospitals? Probably not. And I'm not saying they shouldn't test. I'm just saying everyone's focus on it seems bit overcooked.

For example: my wife works in the most advanced level 4 NICU east of the Mississippi. They have a whopping total of 62 beds...

Are you trained in epidemiology? This stuff is not rocket science and it is certainly not new. Your argument is like saying “so what if i lose 99% of my portfolio, the remaining 1% will continue to compound and I will be rich someday”.

SARS R0 varied a lot during the epidemic. It ranged from 2-15 and hen fell all the way back down to 3. I think we agree more than what you think. There is no vaccine so R0 isn't all that helpful. Testing is helpful to a degree but absent a vaccine impact is minimal. Locking down high risk individuals and limiting their exposure is probably the best. So far 81% of cases have been "mild".

"The model we’ve used for our R_0 estimate is phenomenological, which means that it doesn’t aim to *explain* what’s happening on the ground but rather to *describe* it. This is a good option in information-scarce situations, like at the start of a novel viral outbreak (AKA now)."

— Dr. Maia Majumder (@maiamajumder) January 24, 2020



How much does R0 matter?
R0 is a useful number to understand when it comes to things like determining vaccine targets (the higher the R0, the more people you have to vaccinate to stop the disease from spreading). But the work of containing an outbreak can begin even before we have R0 nailed down.

The R0 depends on a few things, including how long a person is contagious, how many susceptible people they tend to interact with, and how transmissible the infectious agent is.

That means we can make an epidemic less likely to spread by attacking those particular factors. We can make fewer people susceptible to the virus; that’s what a vaccine does. (There’s no vaccine for the coronavirus yet, but perhaps there will be someday.) You can reduce the amount of time you’re able to spread the virus by staying home if you’re sick. And you can reduce transmissibility through measures like hand washing. These are all good actions to take no matter what the R0 turns out to be, and they’re good advice even for ordinary colds and flu.


This interaction reflects some of the challenges with the current covid-19 situation.  There are a lot of people exchanging information and opinions on a topic for which most have not received training.  After a while, these "opinions" and "misconceptions" start becoming portrayed as facts, which is unfortunate. 

I am trained/educated as an epidemiologist (and biostatistician).  With this training/education/background, and work experience to support it, you start to realize how little we (as a society) actually know about this virus.

Social distancing is a means to bend the curve down.  It will not prevent all infections, and that is not the point.  BUT, it will reduce the rate of new infections, thereby buying time to find existing infections (provided you have a robust testing scheme in place), isolate them, and then treat them.  It will also help to spread out the demand for hospital beds over a longer period of time, allowing hospitals to better cope with the epidemic.  South Korea is a good example of doing this well, especially with their drive-through testing clinics.

We are also lucky in the sense that this is an enclosed virus - enclosed within a lipid outer layer.  This makes it especially vulnerable to basic/effective handwashing with soap and water.  Put on a mask to keep yourself from touching your face, wash your hands religiously throughout the day, and don't exchange bodily fluids with random people, and you will be fine.         
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dalal.Holdings on March 05, 2020, 07:42:31 AM
Just reading through some of these comments last couple of days some of you guys really bought into the panic of this huh? Reading and watching all of this reminds me of Y2K. I work in healthcare, have not seen any corona virus yet and honestly I hope if it comes to my area I hope I get it right away. Significantly limits my ability to get reinfected. All evidence points to at my age it will be mild and flu like and will allow me to eventually get back to my job with a low level of worry. I have a very low level of worry now. This seems to be affecting old/ immuno compromised people the most( like everything else) These people bluntly are going to die at some point in time sooner then their more resistant counterparts. Not much at this point any of us can do otherwise. The panic is irrational.

“Have not seen any corona virus yet”

“Reminds me of Y2K”

I will be fine. It’s just old ppl who will die, why worry?

Incredible.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: perulv on March 05, 2020, 07:43:46 AM
The panic is irrational.

The panic of reduced earnings and increased bankruptcies, or the panic of dying? The first concern seems pretty real, with conferences, flights, marathons, all kinds of gatherings cancelled all over (Europe at least), and more and more people "working" from home. I agree with the latter being irrational for most people.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: LC on March 05, 2020, 07:45:01 AM
Quote
don't exchange bodily fluids with random people

Now that doesn't sound like any fun at all :(

 ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: orthopa on March 05, 2020, 07:58:30 AM
Just reading through some of these comments last couple of days some of you guys really bought into the panic of this huh? Reading and watching all of this reminds me of Y2K. I work in healthcare, have not seen any corona virus yet and honestly I hope if it comes to my area I hope I get it right away. Significantly limits my ability to get reinfected. All evidence points to at my age it will be mild and flu like and will allow me to eventually get back to my job with a low level of worry. I have a very low level of worry now. This seems to be affecting old/ immuno compromised people the most( like everything else) These people bluntly are going to die at some point in time sooner then their more resistant counterparts. Not much at this point any of us can do otherwise. The panic is irrational.

I don't think many here are panicking that they might die from the virus. But the economic impact will be real and non-trivial.

So sell your stocks, and draw from your emergency fund.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: orthopa on March 05, 2020, 07:59:17 AM
The panic is irrational.

The panic of reduced earnings and increased bankruptcies, or the panic of dying? The first concern seems pretty real, with conferences, flights, marathons, all kinds of gatherings cancelled all over (Europe at least), and more and more people "working" from home. I agree with the latter being irrational for most people.

If your going to die from it, your going to die from it. WTF are you going to do about it?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dalal.Holdings on March 05, 2020, 07:59:48 AM
I sold significant portions over weeks. See earlier post.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-05/u-s-won-t-meet-coronavirus-test-rollout-goal-senators-say

Quote
The Trump administration won’t be able to meet its promised timeline of having a million coronavirus tests available by the end of the week, senators said after a briefing Thursday from health officials.

“There won’t be a million people to get a test by the end of the week,” Republican Senator Rick Scott of Florida said. “It’s way smaller than that. And still, at this point, it’s still through public health departments.”
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: orthopa on March 05, 2020, 08:01:54 AM
Just reading through some of these comments last couple of days some of you guys really bought into the panic of this huh? Reading and watching all of this reminds me of Y2K. I work in healthcare, have not seen any corona virus yet and honestly I hope if it comes to my area I hope I get it right away. Significantly limits my ability to get reinfected. All evidence points to at my age it will be mild and flu like and will allow me to eventually get back to my job with a low level of worry. I have a very low level of worry now. This seems to be affecting old/ immuno compromised people the most( like everything else) These people bluntly are going to die at some point in time sooner then their more resistant counterparts. Not much at this point any of us can do otherwise. The panic is irrational.

“Have not seen any corona virus yet”

“Reminds me of Y2K”

I will be fine. It’s just old ppl who will die, why worry?

Incredible.

I think its incredible how unhinged you have become. Remind me to be no where near you when the shit really hits the fan. You will have everyone sucking on the barrel of a 12 gauge shot gun praying to Jesus. In all honesty you might feel better if you just got it right away and survived?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dalal.Holdings on March 05, 2020, 08:04:53 AM
Lol. Let’s revisit in 3 months—that’s June 5th. For the record, I hope you will be correct and able to say “I told you so”. Ok?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jurgis on March 05, 2020, 08:14:44 AM
Priceline has $36 per night for a Carnival 5 night cruise to the Bahamas.

I heard they extend it for 2 weeks for free.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: orthopa on March 05, 2020, 08:16:16 AM
The panic is irrational.

The panic of reduced earnings and increased bankruptcies, or the panic of dying? The first concern seems pretty real, with conferences, flights, marathons, all kinds of gatherings cancelled all over (Europe at least), and more and more people "working" from home. I agree with the latter being irrational for most people.

What amazes me is how everyday, patients I see in the office, overweight, cholesterol through the roof, no exercise, smoking, drugs, family hx of dz (DM, high Chol, CA, etc), etc  and everyone one of these motherfuckers are guaranteed, a statistically early death, significant loss of quality of life, very high likely hood of limb loss, etc etc and not one of them gives a shit about it. Not a single one.

They are GUARANTEED to die much sooner then everyone else and like the vast majority of america they do no care. Not one bit. So yes the panic of dying due to a disease that has killed ~3k people vs the ones that have year after year, after year, after year has killed MILLIONS and will continue to kill MILLIONS is irrational.

This whole thing is the definition of irrationality. Because I guarantee more then 1 person sitting here reading this panicking is WAY overweight, eating like shit, smoking cigarettes, with high cholesterol, possibly early undetected cancer,  and a horrible family history/genetic disposition that already GUARANTEES a statistically early death. AND THESE PEOPLE HAVE THE POWER TO PREVENT THIS AND WONT DO ANYTHING!

Its irrationality, not a fear of dying. That is bullshit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Kaegi2011 on March 05, 2020, 08:17:25 AM

I work in healthcare...

This seems to be affecting old/ immuno compromised people the most( like everything else) These people bluntly are going to die at some point in time sooner then their more resistant counterparts. Not much at this point any of us can do otherwise. The panic is irrational.


I'm sorry, you work in healthcare?  As in caring of people who are ill, with the goal of them getting better? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Kaegi2011 on March 05, 2020, 08:23:59 AM
What amazes me is how everyday, patients I see in the office, overweight, cholesterol through the roof, no exercise, smoking, drugs, family hx of dz (DM, high Chol, CA, etc), etc  and everyone one of these motherfuckers are guaranteed, a statistically early death, significant loss of quality of life, very high likely hood of limb loss, etc etc and not one of them gives a shit about it. Not a single one.

They are GUARANTEED to die much sooner then everyone else and like the vast majority of america they do no care. Not one bit. So yes the panic of dying due to a disease that has killed ~3k people vs the ones that have year after year, after year, after year has killed MILLIONS and will continue to kill MILLIONS is irrational.

This whole thing is the definition of irrationality. Because I guarantee more then 1 person sitting here reading this panicking is WAY overweight, eating like shit, smoking cigarettes, with high cholesterol, possibly early undetected cancer,  and a horrible family history/genetic disposition that already GUARANTEES a statistically early death. AND THESE PEOPLE HAVE THE POWER TO PREVENT THIS AND WONT DO ANYTHING!

Its irrationality, not a fear of dying. That is bullshit.

The difference is that all the things you mentioned above are controllable by those individuals who make conscious decisions regarding their lifestyle.  Any consequence of their lifestyle choices are theirs (and the tax payers) to bear.  The issue here is that we have a contagious disease that doesn't care whether the host is one of hte people you described above, or someone on the other end of the extreme. 

So while I understand how you think your logic applies to specifically the people you are talking about, it is not irrational for other people to be concerned. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jurgis on March 05, 2020, 08:27:21 AM
It seems one reason for not testing more widely is the fear (probably fact) of running out of testing-equipment.

That is likely one of the reasons of not testing more widely in US too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jurgis on March 05, 2020, 08:29:54 AM
Don’t get me wrong, I have some disaster hedges, but I’m also fully infested and corona will certainly not stop that.

I hope you're not.  :-[
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: thepupil on March 05, 2020, 08:30:42 AM
Don’t get me wrong, I have some disaster hedges, but I’m also fully infested and corona will certainly not stop that.

I hope you're not.  :-[

hahaha, well my wife works at a Washington DC hospital...so probably eventually going to get it
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: orthopa on March 05, 2020, 08:32:18 AM

I work in healthcare...

This seems to be affecting old/ immuno compromised people the most( like everything else) These people bluntly are going to die at some point in time sooner then their more resistant counterparts. Not much at this point any of us can do otherwise. The panic is irrational.


I'm sorry, you work in healthcare?  As in caring of people who are ill, with the goal of them getting better?

There are goals and there are realities. The reality is if your old and/or immuno compromised your more likely to die if you get the corona virus. Without a cure what exactly would you like a healthcare worker to do in that situation?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: orthopa on March 05, 2020, 08:36:20 AM
What amazes me is how everyday, patients I see in the office, overweight, cholesterol through the roof, no exercise, smoking, drugs, family hx of dz (DM, high Chol, CA, etc), etc  and everyone one of these motherfuckers are guaranteed, a statistically early death, significant loss of quality of life, very high likely hood of limb loss, etc etc and not one of them gives a shit about it. Not a single one.

They are GUARANTEED to die much sooner then everyone else and like the vast majority of america they do no care. Not one bit. So yes the panic of dying due to a disease that has killed ~3k people vs the ones that have year after year, after year, after year has killed MILLIONS and will continue to kill MILLIONS is irrational.

This whole thing is the definition of irrationality. Because I guarantee more then 1 person sitting here reading this panicking is WAY overweight, eating like shit, smoking cigarettes, with high cholesterol, possibly early undetected cancer,  and a horrible family history/genetic disposition that already GUARANTEES a statistically early death. AND THESE PEOPLE HAVE THE POWER TO PREVENT THIS AND WONT DO ANYTHING!

Its irrationality, not a fear of dying. That is bullshit.

The difference is that all the things you mentioned above are controllable by those individuals who make conscious decisions regarding their lifestyle.  Any consequence of their lifestyle choices are theirs (and the tax payers) to bear.  The issue here is that we have a contagious disease that doesn't care whether the host is one of hte people you described above, or someone on the other end of the extreme. 

So while I understand how you think your logic applies to specifically the people you are talking about, it is not irrational for other people to be concerned.

Sure concern is warranted but we are seeing first hand an evolutionary response (fight/flight) that is kicking in big time. Sure we can take measures to limit the spread but in all reality there is little we can do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SnarkyPuppy on March 05, 2020, 08:41:14 AM
Just reading through some of these comments last couple of days some of you guys really bought into the panic of this huh? Reading and watching all of this reminds me of Y2K. I work in healthcare, have not seen any corona virus yet and honestly I hope if it comes to my area I hope I get it right away. Significantly limits my ability to get reinfected. All evidence points to at my age it will be mild and flu like and will allow me to eventually get back to my job with a low level of worry. I have a very low level of worry now. This seems to be affecting old/ immuno compromised people the most( like everything else) These people bluntly are going to die at some point in time sooner then their more resistant counterparts. Not much at this point any of us can do otherwise. The panic is irrational.

The arrogance of portions of the medical community to date is concerning.  To think there are no *potential* second order effects in a scenario where hospitals have clear capacity constraints is just getting nonsensical.  The US had a two month head start on this and as of 10:30am today only 35 people in nyc have been tested.  Risk mitigation at this point restricted to tracking indirect contacts of positive tested patients & asking the general public to wash their hands are clearly insufficient.  Why is this debatable?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jurgis on March 05, 2020, 08:48:44 AM

I work in healthcare...

This seems to be affecting old/ immuno compromised people the most( like everything else) These people bluntly are going to die at some point in time sooner then their more resistant counterparts. Not much at this point any of us can do otherwise. The panic is irrational.


I'm sorry, you work in healthcare?  As in caring of people who are ill, with the goal of them getting better?

There are goals and there are realities. The reality is if your old and/or immuno compromised your more likely to die if you get the corona virus. Without a cure what exactly would you like a healthcare worker to do in that situation?

The right thing obviously is to have total contempt to the patients that you exhibit here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: cherzeca on March 05, 2020, 09:04:57 AM