Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 255069 times)

Gregmal

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3291
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #230 on: February 27, 2020, 05:47:57 AM »
as I write this 2/27 early morning futures on S/P are down such that we may hit during the trading day a 10% correction from the recent high.  I am edging in now buying this dip.  I do this from a position of strength, cash over 50%, but I think anyone who has a horizon that looks out 2-5 years (and believes we wont go into a socialist cesspool) might want to buy into this dip as well if you have dry tinder.  likely will give fed cover to drop rates as well.  just my two cents.

On this note, I found the following pretty funny and a good summary of most folks

https://twitter.com/friedoystercult/status/1232065846639501313

Everyone is always "waiting to buy on a pullback" but quite frequently when they get it, sit on their hands rife with paralysis.

Some stuff is currently absurdly cheap. A lot of stuff was already a bit out of hand and probably becomes attractive again with the next 5-10% off the SPY.



zippy1

  • Lifetime Member
  • Sr. Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 436
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #231 on: February 27, 2020, 06:18:33 AM »
Apparently, the video is popularized by the exiled Chinese billionaire and the far right groups. The video looks genuine, unless they staged the whole thing, who knows.

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/feb/26/facebook-posts/chinese-billionaire-floats-conspiracy-about-corona/
It is a bit funny that the so called "fact checker" does not know the last name (Surname) of this Chinese billionaire is Guo instead of Wengui, which is his given name.   ::)

BG2008

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1323
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #232 on: February 27, 2020, 06:44:24 AM »
as I write this 2/27 early morning futures on S/P are down such that we may hit during the trading day a 10% correction from the recent high.  I am edging in now buying this dip.  I do this from a position of strength, cash over 50%, but I think anyone who has a horizon that looks out 2-5 years (and believes we wont go into a socialist cesspool) might want to buy into this dip as well if you have dry tinder.  likely will give fed cover to drop rates as well.  just my two cents.

On this note, I found the following pretty funny and a good summary of most folks

https://twitter.com/friedoystercult/status/1232065846639501313

Everyone is always "waiting to buy on a pullback" but quite frequently when they get it, sit on their hands rife with paralysis.

Some stuff is currently absurdly cheap. A lot of stuff was already a bit out of hand and probably becomes attractive again with the next 5-10% off the SPY.

Guys,

I value this community a great deal as I particularly thank this thread for heightening my awareness of the potential impact from the Corona Virus.  It is interesting to note that Microsoft, PayPal, and Mastercard have all issued revenue warnings.  These are "rails" of the economy.  Particularly Mastercard as it is likely a leading indicator of future spending, be it purchases, travel, hotel rooms etc.  So We are getting a glimp of the Q1 earnings.  I feel that whatever number that comes out of China will likely be altered.  Whatever the US multinationals report will actually be the real numbers.  Q1 is likely going to be a bloodbath. 

I started buying a lot of puts in Mid Jan (thanks to this thread) and I look like an idiot for about a month.  These SPY, RACE, PLD, etc puts are allowing me to become more greedy.  So, I don't think this is buy another dip.  The reaction to an outbreak is to shut everything down.  This will likely hit the GDP pretty hard.  Just my crappy opinion. 

Gregmal

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3291
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #233 on: February 27, 2020, 07:01:00 AM »
as I write this 2/27 early morning futures on S/P are down such that we may hit during the trading day a 10% correction from the recent high.  I am edging in now buying this dip.  I do this from a position of strength, cash over 50%, but I think anyone who has a horizon that looks out 2-5 years (and believes we wont go into a socialist cesspool) might want to buy into this dip as well if you have dry tinder.  likely will give fed cover to drop rates as well.  just my two cents.

On this note, I found the following pretty funny and a good summary of most folks

https://twitter.com/friedoystercult/status/1232065846639501313

Everyone is always "waiting to buy on a pullback" but quite frequently when they get it, sit on their hands rife with paralysis.

Some stuff is currently absurdly cheap. A lot of stuff was already a bit out of hand and probably becomes attractive again with the next 5-10% off the SPY.

Guys,

I value this community a great deal as I particularly thank this thread for heightening my awareness of the potential impact from the Corona Virus.  It is interesting to note that Microsoft, PayPal, and Mastercard have all issued revenue warnings.  These are "rails" of the economy.  Particularly Mastercard as it is likely a leading indicator of future spending, be it purchases, travel, hotel rooms etc.  So We are getting a glimp of the Q1 earnings.  I feel that whatever number that comes out of China will likely be altered.  Whatever the US multinationals report will actually be the real numbers.  Q1 is likely going to be a bloodbath. 

I started buying a lot of puts in Mid Jan (thanks to this thread) and I look like an idiot for about a month.  These SPY, RACE, PLD, etc puts are allowing me to become more greedy.  So, I don't think this is buy another dip.  The reaction to an outbreak is to shut everything down.  This will likely hit the GDP pretty hard.  Just my crappy opinion.

I dont disagree with your thoughts. I was actually a bit surprised by the feedback Ive been getting from people on the ground in the NY/CA areas. But at the same time, any way you cut this, its a temporary issue. If its not, well, you better have gold and guns and nothing else will matter. So if its temporary, what the appropriate price/discount to apply for a couple quarters/maybe a year of depressed earning from great businesses?

Im more than pleased with the opportunities as my negativity(much like yours in January) was starting to make me question myself. Only real mistake was probably buying a little to much BRK, but hopefully Warren is compensating me for that. Otherwise its a simple decision, gold/guns, or great businesses xx% off their highs? Lock and load.

elliott

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 72
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #234 on: February 27, 2020, 07:09:45 AM »
I think this virus will certainly have a noticeable economic impact, although I tend to think it will only be temporal. That said, buy the dip? Me, I am not into that game - for the last 2 years, I have only bought 1 stock per year - but, even if I were, I would think twice in the case of indices and the like. The economic impact may be short lived and minor, but who says hyped stocks will reflate to the same craze multiples?

ERICOPOLY

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7506
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #235 on: February 27, 2020, 07:39:22 AM »
BAC has lost $49B in market cap over the past 5 days.  I doubt their discounted earnings come in $49B lighter due to a virus.

How about just calling this a selloff with Coronavirus being the fuse?

BG2008

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1323
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #236 on: February 27, 2020, 07:42:35 AM »
BAC has lost $49B in market cap over the past 5 days.  I doubt their earnings come in $49B lighter due to a virus.

How about just calling this a selloff with Coronavirus being the fuse?

Eric,

You always have a good way of putting things into the right perspective.  Market has been nutz for sometime. I can't count how many value investors are saying "well interest rate is 2%, so 3% FCF yield on a great business is cheap in the long"  It's probably true over 10 years for the right companies.  But it seems to be applied to every company.  I think Coronavirus is the fuse that lit this market on fire.  The Wallstreetbets people was kind of the top tick. 

Gamecock-YT

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 624
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #237 on: February 27, 2020, 07:56:14 AM »
BAC has lost $49B in market cap over the past 5 days.  I doubt their earnings come in $49B lighter due to a virus.

How about just calling this a selloff with Coronavirus being the fuse?

I think Coronavirus is the fuse that lit this market on fire. 

Especially how levered the corporates are. Weak earnings, tightening standards, unable to rollover debts. Bankruptcies. Could be the Minsky Moment.

Liberty

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 12101
  • twitter.com/libertyRPF
    • twitter.com/libertyRPF
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #238 on: February 27, 2020, 08:08:40 AM »
"Most haystacks don't even have a needle." |  I'm on Twitter  | This podcast episode is a must-listen

stahleyp

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3521
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #239 on: February 27, 2020, 08:52:56 AM »
BAC has lost $49B in market cap over the past 5 days.  I doubt their earnings come in $49B lighter due to a virus.

How about just calling this a selloff with Coronavirus being the fuse?

I think Coronavirus is the fuse that lit this market on fire. 

Especially how levered the corporates are. Weak earnings, tightening standards, unable to rollover debts. Bankruptcies. Could be the Minsky Moment.

I don't know what the market will do but this creating a big liquidity event is the big issue here. I would expect the Fed to announce further easing but we'll see.
Paul