Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 464221 times)

Spekulatius

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #2400 on: March 24, 2020, 05:51:35 PM »
I'm saying there are people on this board with very safe jobs and homes, that can't wait for the
President to make another mistake - so they can trash the shit out of him - while real suffering
is going on.

It's easy to say - Nope, President Trump - it's stupid to consider ending this lockdown, in some form or another.
Who cares about the working man, when you have a job, and the economy is getting destroyed.

The bill will have a lot of garbage in it regardless of who wrote it. In like the a German system better where the largest party write the bill together in committees and then do a formality vote. Germany pushed though  their stimulus bill, we are in here for a period of public haggling before every party got their share of pork in order to vote on this. That public haggling is pretty much part of the process. TARP in late 2008 was just the same thing.

Tell me about it Spek - time is of the essence - remember? I mean this thing has exponential growth, day by day.

So let's hold the country HOSTAGE while we take our time and stuff it full of the "Green New Deal" and Identity Politics legislation.
Now that is a serious partner in the war on VC.  Be proud of those democrats.

There is enough money to fight the Virus directly, thatís not the issue. The bill is about dealing with the economic fallout. I am not condoning delays, but they are a consequence of the existing system to write partisan bills and then get hashed out a compromise in public. It could be done differently but it isnít.
Life is too short for cheap beer and wine.


meiroy

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #2401 on: March 24, 2020, 05:55:30 PM »


I really hope and wish that he is supremely successful and luck favors him in containing the virus. But, I think it is looking increasingly likely that he is going to cause grievous harm to a lot of citizens with his approach. It would be a terrible price the country would be paying for electing someone like him.

Vinod

Nicely written Vinod.

If we're looking for this not to repeat itself, it's important not to focus the blame on Trump.  His various actions including dispersing the pandemic response team have been supported by a circle of enablers.  He cannot be where he is now without these people. Even if he is not re-elected, they would remain and would continue to cause harm.  Worse, many of the citizens harmed by him and his enablers would still continue their support.


Kaegi2011

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #2402 on: March 24, 2020, 06:00:24 PM »

Kaegi2011

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #2403 on: March 24, 2020, 06:05:27 PM »
I'm saying there are people on this board with very safe jobs and homes, that can't wait for the
President to make another mistake - so they can trash the shit out of him - while real suffering
is going on.

It's easy to say - Nope, President Trump - it's stupid to consider ending this lockdown, in some form or another.
Who cares about the working man, when you have a job, and the economy is getting destroyed.

What if I care about all people but I choose to favor lives that won't come back above jobs that eventually will?

I'm sure you are a complete humanitarian and a generous person. I'm not questioning that.

I don't understand the scorn reserved for the President at a time of crisis. Some things are not going to go correctly, yet this is
being used as the time to bring him down. Continue to have at it. It will likely work where impeachment didn't.

How is the opposition party absolved of ANY responsibility here with a 3 year clusterfuck where the #1 issue was get rid of
Trump and NOT GOVERN?  Totally wasting everyone's time for nothing and ignoring issues critical to the country.

How is the opposition party absolved of using this crisis to stuff a critical bill full of crap that has nothing to do with solving a crisis?
 
How is the opposition party absolved of the fight to recalibrate our relationship with China - which clearly needs to happen?

Where were the governors that rooted on "open borders" and no immigration security and crapping on our streets?

Do any of these politicians share any blame?  Nope - not when you can blame it all on the President you hate.

Continue to focus all your scorn on the President. You'll get you wish with wartime President Biden and associates Schiff, Pelosi and Nadler.  Can't wait to see how they deal with this once they open the borders.

Dude, how could you forget about Bengahzi and Hillary's emails??!?!  And the prostitution ring in the pizza joint!!! 

cubsfan

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #2404 on: March 24, 2020, 06:10:27 PM »

Also, "cubsfan" needs to be banned. He is basically just trolling at this point.

Well said Foreign Tuffett - if the opinions expressed don't agree with your viewpoint, I expect you prefer the echo chamber.
Pretty simple stuff - silence the opposing viewpoint and carry on.

ERICOPOLY

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #2405 on: March 24, 2020, 06:18:35 PM »

Pretty simple stuff - silence the opposing viewpoint and carry on.

What does that look like exactly?  Accuse the opposing view of making money while real people are suffering?
« Last Edit: March 24, 2020, 06:20:36 PM by ERICOPOLY »

orthopa

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #2406 on: March 24, 2020, 06:19:36 PM »
Hey Orthopa, you said that when you realized that you were wrong, you'd eat crow. I don't care about you eating crow, but took that as a statement that you'll be intellectually honest enough to change your hypothesis when the evidence contradicts your view. So, I'm curious when you'll decide that your hypothesis is incorrect.

Quite a while ago, you seemed to believe COVID-19 would likely not be a big deal because you believed that there were already millions of cases in the USA (but almost none of it had showed up at the hospitals)? Have the exploding number of cases in New York changed your perspective yet? (Note that right now, New York state has 5% of the worldwide diagnosed COVID-19 cases, with 2,635 patients bad enough to be in hospitals, 621 in the ICU, and 114 deaths.)

If you haven't changed your mind yet, do you have any thoughts about evidence that would make you change your mind?

Contact tracing will obviously no longer work in the US. That is an opportunity the US has missed. 

We must start social distancing immediately, including cancelling public events, and reducing exposures to large groups.

Marc Lipsitch, the Harvard Epidemiologist has a thread here:

https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1237347774951305216?s=21

Weren't we just arguing about this in my example of extended contact at airport ? Now because he says it, its true? LOL

Orthopa, do you think you can slow down a bit and try to communicate a little more clearly? I think you are making some good points, but it seems your points may not be getting across clearly or that you may even be misunderstood. This post in particular makes me think that is the case.

I also thought your earlier point about testing the role of testing in a diagnosis is likely a good point, but was probably too hasty to get your point across. Maybe some other medical professionals could weigh in on that, especially if you're to busy to respond.

I dont know how much more I can slow down. I have probably posted 50 times? Trying to get some points across. Am I completely right?, of course not but I have experience FWIW. Others have graphs,  twitter links, and or political angles which are underwhelming at best sometimes.

Again points that I have made that I believe are true FWIW (we are allowed an opinion right?)

1. The virus has been here for months, likely early January and has been seen/dealt with in the health system under other diagnoses for months.
2. The first test confirmed, was not the first test here.
3. There was nothing the government or any nation in the world could do to stop the initial spread
4. Older people and those most at risk will die. There is no cure, and viruses kill people. Elderly people should take appropriate precautions.
5. Because the virus has been here for months testing is borderline useless and your going to chase your tail the entire time. This is due to numerous contacts and the extended incubation period.
6. If you don't test everyone the virus will continue to spread quickly, again via asymptomatic people and kids. Best policy is to test everyone, but its impossible and too late.
7. Best way to prevent spread is standard precautions! This includes isolation, hand washing, yada, yada. NOT TESTING.
8. If a patient test positive and there has been minimal definite contacts say someone who is home bound with a handful of contacts testing may make sense but these are limited cases.
9. The the spring/summer will bring a reprieve in new cases and hopefully that was well as the fact that nearly everyone will have been exposed or infected this will limit virgin hosts.
10. A vaccine is useless if the virus mutates significantly.
11. The number of cases are vastly under reported, probably numbering in the millions by now in the US.
12. If someone you know or yourself had a cold/URI/flu symptoms that tested negative, and was "way worse" then the common cold there was very high chance it is/was the corona virus.
13. Every case of the virus is not severe, so don't model it as such. Corona virus dx does not = ICU and ventilator.
14. I believe eventually those in charge medically will come to the conclusion that its inevitable that this becomes a pandemic with everyone getting infected in time.
15. If your human, you will get the virus in your lifetime. Nothing you can do.
16. Flattening the curve makes sense but I question when the curve will bump as the virus again likely has been here for months.


Did I misinterpret or misrepresent anything here?

I think you have an excellent understanding of this at this point, and apparently able to put it down on paper better then me.

Thanks.  Just trying to make sure I fully understand the various perspectives.  Again, apologies again for the comment before re: the profession you've chosen.  It meant no disrepect.

I do want to ask you - if you were to take a step back and think about your position, where could you be wrong?

I could be wrong by how much of a hit this will be to the ICU/need for respirator, ie breakdown of health system. I can only think back to working during the H1N1 outbreak and the 17-18 flu season and that volume load which was ~15 million cases if I recall correctly. The system was stretched, but did not collapse, My opinion is the virus has been here for 6 weeks/months and cases are vastly under reported. So in my mind we are currently in an environment of where many think we will be from documented patient 1 say 4-6 weeks from now, already!  Its in this mind frame I have a hard time rectifying a wickedly high death rate and medical system collapse if we are operating in this environment currently.

I certainly could be wrong on this, I hope I'm right of course. We will see. The fact of the matter is if the cases are severely under estimated and we are handling it now maybe we are further along on the curve then we think, and handling it fine.

I guess I will know for sure if I was wrong if/when the healthcare system collapses. I could get lucky as my predictions above (not too bad for 2 weeks ago huh?) were before the nationwide stay home theme and ramp up in healthcare preparedness across the country. I believe a lot of our back and forth at the time was about Washington state? and the deaths there? They are at 110 so I guess it remains to be seen if that continues to exponentially increase with time. NYC will be the test as that is where the healthcare system could break and wasnt even close at the time of our discussions.

FWIW I still think there is no doubt millions had been infected then, and even more so now. Dont forget the asymptomatic rate is 86% per Chinese data. For now its a point that is a waste of time to argue as until further means for testing comes out we will never know. What will really tell us for sure will be serologic testing which I hope for the economy's sake happens very soon as that would be a means for every group to tell if they have been infected and are immune. That could be a very quick send away lab and could be done on all asymptomatic people and in any doctors office, ER, etc.

FWIW the healthcare system is holding up good(NYC to be determined still), and has been since we talked. Its been ~2 weeks since we went back and forth and we are up to 698 deaths. Since that time ~26k give or take have died from heart disease so heart disease may still be the winner this year. Will have to see. And yes they are real living people so them dying counts too, even though it doesn't "spread". And yes those people that live have life long lung and heart issues, CHF, etc. I didn't know we had such empathetic people on the board!

I do find it very interesting how much everyone who is not medical trained does seem to care about people dying, ICU beds, ethical hard decisions, medicine etc as this what those in the medical field deal with every day. My hope is once this is over there is just as much passionate discussion about diabetes, HTN, heart disease etc. With the amount of outpouring and compassion I can certainly envision many on the board spending time at nursing homes, cardiac rehab facilities, and community health centers going forward. That will be great as opposed to a passing interest due to self preservation. 


« Last Edit: March 24, 2020, 06:25:39 PM by orthopa »

cubsfan

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #2407 on: March 24, 2020, 06:21:56 PM »

Also, "cubsfan" needs to be banned. He is basically just trolling at this point.

Well said Foreign Tuffett - if the opinions expressed don't agree with your viewpoint, I expect you prefer the echo chamber.
Pretty simple stuff - silence the opposing viewpoint and carry on.

What does that look like exactly?  Accuse the opposing view of making money while real people are suffering?

Sure, accuse the President of risking 500,000 American lives, just so he can get re-elected. That's what it looks like.

Then you don't need to hear any opposing opinion.

« Last Edit: March 24, 2020, 06:23:56 PM by cubsfan »

ERICOPOLY

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #2408 on: March 24, 2020, 06:30:51 PM »

Also, "cubsfan" needs to be banned. He is basically just trolling at this point.

Well said Foreign Tuffett - if the opinions expressed don't agree with your viewpoint, I expect you prefer the echo chamber.
Pretty simple stuff - silence the opposing viewpoint and carry on.

What does that look like exactly?  Accuse the opposing view of making money while real people are suffering?

Sure, accuse the President of risking 500,000 American lives, just so he can get re-elected. That's what it looks like.

Then you don't need to hear any opposing opinion.



This:

The perfect armchair quarterback situation, while you make money and people's lives are destroyed.

Liberty

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