Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 464204 times)

arcube

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #2470 on: March 25, 2020, 12:00:25 PM »
No one said he caused the 30% drop or endorsed Eric Trump's action (whatever he did). I don't care how much he makes or made, my point is that this guy is to be exposed for what he is..a guy who is always in some sort of manipulation trickery mode... My opinion, you don't have to agree but I did want to share with others and get it off my chest.

So when Tepper does an interview and talks about being "balls to the walls", or "Druck" talks about what he's buying or about going short, or Buffett writes an op-ed about buying stocks or Malone talks about "how good a business X or Y is", is that manipulation trickery mode? Ackman just did what every guest on these shows do. His interview happened to be particularly dramatic because it was a particularly dramatic time, right as a pandemic is exploding but right before it seemed most governments were really taking it seriously and shutting things down.

If I had been given a microphone at that time, I'd probably have said pretty similar things, to be honest. That's what the data was showing, and I was worried about my parents and in laws and uncles and aunts and friends with health troubles and friends working in healthcare... I know there's strong social conventions about never going out on a limb and never appearing to overreact and all that, but those conventions hinder good decision-making in times like these, because we're all looking around and waiting for others to tell us it's time to do something instead of thinking for ourselves and lose precious time, so voices that actually tell you how bad it is and how bad it'll be if we don't act are very valuable.

Fair enough.


Liberty

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #2471 on: March 25, 2020, 12:35:00 PM »
3-min Ackman interview from March 23:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=12&v=koP9HID3sWE&feature=emb_logo

"At the time I made my remarks, none of the states were in a shelter-in-place mode.."
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John Hjorth

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #2472 on: March 25, 2020, 12:37:42 PM »
... I shudder to think of the safety of our healthcare workforce in the coming months. ...

The real soldiers of today, almost everywhere around the world.

Ulf Hørlyk on LinkedIn. Mr. Hørlyk is managing doctor at the Acute Department in Horsens, Region Mid Jutland.

Each day he writes a post on LinkedIn about what's going on. It's an awesome war dairy. You can follow him [no need to connect] and use the translation feature to read his posts in your mother tongue.

- - - o 0 o - - -

Edit : Mr. Hørlyks last post today [Day 20] on LinkedIn was actually the last one on LinkedIn. [lol]. He has now moved away from the noise on LinkedIn to the blog called Akutfolket.dk. ["akutfolket" translates to "The Acute People"].
« Last Edit: March 25, 2020, 01:03:53 PM by John Hjorth »
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Dalal.Holdings

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #2473 on: March 25, 2020, 12:51:09 PM »
No one said he caused the 30% drop or endorsed Eric Trump's action (whatever he did). I don't care how much he makes or made, my point is that this guy is to be exposed for what he is..a guy who is always in some sort of manipulation trickery mode... My opinion, you don't have to agree but I did want to share with others and get it off my chest.

So when Tepper does an interview and talks about being "balls to the walls", or "Druck" talks about what he's buying or about going short, or Buffett writes an op-ed about buying stocks or Malone talks about "how good a business X or Y is", is that manipulation trickery mode? Ackman just did what every guest on these shows do. His interview happened to be particularly dramatic because it was a particularly dramatic time, right as a pandemic is exploding but right before it seemed most governments were really taking it seriously and shutting things down.

If I had been given a microphone at that time, I'd probably have said pretty similar things, to be honest. That's what the data was showing, and I was worried about my parents and in laws and uncles and aunts and friends with health troubles and friends working in healthcare... I know there's strong social conventions about never going out on a limb and never appearing to overreact and all that, but those conventions hinder good decision-making in times like these, because we're all looking around and waiting for others to tell us it's time to do something, instead of thinking for ourselves, and lose precious time, so voices that actually tell you how bad it is and how bad it'll be if we don't act are very valuable.

Uh, no the comparison to Buffett telling people "buy equities" in the fall of 2008 is not equivalent to this guy. Comparing a guy who has a long track record of shorting a business and then going onto a network to talk about how the business is a scam/fraud and he is doing it to "protect people" (reminds me of TSLAQ folks). And investing in a "sewer" (Munger's words) like VRX tells you even more.

The problem with the "if I had a microphone in my face" is that some people willingly go out of their way to seek out that microphone at opportune times. I guess it's great marketing for Pershing when it comes to raising capital. I have not seen Buffett/Munger engage in the same kind of tactics.

I'd bet a lot of money that a lot of people have tried to "put a microphone" in front of Buffett/Munger's faces during this crisis, but what you are not seeing is that they are declining to be interviewed. They are old & vulnerable and I am sure they are sitting on losses in airlines, but they see no need to go out and stir panic and cry on TV.
« Last Edit: March 25, 2020, 12:55:18 PM by Dalal.Holdings »
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ukvalueinvestment

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #2474 on: March 25, 2020, 12:58:36 PM »
No one said he caused the 30% drop or endorsed Eric Trump's action (whatever he did). I don't care how much he makes or made, my point is that this guy is to be exposed for what he is..a guy who is always in some sort of manipulation trickery mode... My opinion, you don't have to agree but I did want to share with others and get it off my chest.

So when Tepper does an interview and talks about being "balls to the walls", or "Druck" talks about what he's buying or about going short, or Buffett writes an op-ed about buying stocks or Malone talks about "how good a business X or Y is", is that manipulation trickery mode? Ackman just did what every guest on these shows do. His interview happened to be particularly dramatic because it was a particularly dramatic time, right as a pandemic is exploding but right before it seemed most governments were really taking it seriously and shutting things down.

If I had been given a microphone at that time, I'd probably have said pretty similar things, to be honest. That's what the data was showing, and I was worried about my parents and in laws and uncles and aunts and friends with health troubles and friends working in healthcare... I know there's strong social conventions about never going out on a limb and never appearing to overreact and all that, but those conventions hinder good decision-making in times like these, because we're all looking around and waiting for others to tell us it's time to do something, instead of thinking for ourselves, and lose precious time, so voices that actually tell you how bad it is and how bad it'll be if we don't act are very valuable.

Uh, no the comparison to Buffett telling people "buy equities" in the fall of 2008 is not equivalent to this guy. Comparing a guy who has a long track record of shorting a business and then going onto a network to talk about how the business is a scam/fraud and he is doing it to "protect people" (reminds me of TSLAQ folks). And investing in a "sewer" (Munger's words) like VRX tells you even more.

The problem with the "if I had a microphone in my face" is that some people willingly go out of their way to seek out that microphone at opportune times. I guess it's great marketing for Pershing when it comes to raising capital. I have not seen Buffett/Munger engage in the same kind of tactics.

I'd bet a lot of money that a lot of people have tried to "put a microphone" in front of Buffett/Munger's faces during this crisis, but what you are not seeing is that they are declining to be interviewed. They are old & vulnerable and I am sure they are sitting on losses in airlines, but they see no need to go out and stir panic and cry on TV.

Everything he said needed to be said.  I agreed with it all.  And he has some credibility here, given he saw the effect before everyone else and positioned his portfolio accordingly - and was pretty transparent about it.  If Buffett did all that, we’d be praising his genius and societal contribution.

Ps ackman has done some scummy stuff in the past
@ukvalueinv

Dalal.Holdings

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #2475 on: March 25, 2020, 01:10:56 PM »
No one said he caused the 30% drop or endorsed Eric Trump's action (whatever he did). I don't care how much he makes or made, my point is that this guy is to be exposed for what he is..a guy who is always in some sort of manipulation trickery mode... My opinion, you don't have to agree but I did want to share with others and get it off my chest.

So when Tepper does an interview and talks about being "balls to the walls", or "Druck" talks about what he's buying or about going short, or Buffett writes an op-ed about buying stocks or Malone talks about "how good a business X or Y is", is that manipulation trickery mode? Ackman just did what every guest on these shows do. His interview happened to be particularly dramatic because it was a particularly dramatic time, right as a pandemic is exploding but right before it seemed most governments were really taking it seriously and shutting things down.

If I had been given a microphone at that time, I'd probably have said pretty similar things, to be honest. That's what the data was showing, and I was worried about my parents and in laws and uncles and aunts and friends with health troubles and friends working in healthcare... I know there's strong social conventions about never going out on a limb and never appearing to overreact and all that, but those conventions hinder good decision-making in times like these, because we're all looking around and waiting for others to tell us it's time to do something, instead of thinking for ourselves, and lose precious time, so voices that actually tell you how bad it is and how bad it'll be if we don't act are very valuable.

Uh, no the comparison to Buffett telling people "buy equities" in the fall of 2008 is not equivalent to this guy. Comparing a guy who has a long track record of shorting a business and then going onto a network to talk about how the business is a scam/fraud and he is doing it to "protect people" (reminds me of TSLAQ folks). And investing in a "sewer" (Munger's words) like VRX tells you even more.

The problem with the "if I had a microphone in my face" is that some people willingly go out of their way to seek out that microphone at opportune times. I guess it's great marketing for Pershing when it comes to raising capital. I have not seen Buffett/Munger engage in the same kind of tactics.

I'd bet a lot of money that a lot of people have tried to "put a microphone" in front of Buffett/Munger's faces during this crisis, but what you are not seeing is that they are declining to be interviewed. They are old & vulnerable and I am sure they are sitting on losses in airlines, but they see no need to go out and stir panic and cry on TV.

Everything he said needed to be said.  I agreed with it all.  And he has some credibility here, given he saw the effect before everyone else and positioned his portfolio accordingly - and was pretty transparent about it.  If Buffett did all that, we’d be praising his genius and societal contribution.

Ps ackman has done some scummy stuff in the past

If that makes someone a genius, then I guess you'll be handing out a lot of genius awards to those on this forum/social media who "saw the effect before everyone else and positioned their portfolio accordingly" on here well before Bill went on TV on March 18th--in fact, even before he disclosed his position in CDS on March 3rd!

There are those who even saw this way back in January (Nassim Taleb for one), but they didn't need to talk about their equity or swap positions and they have been much more constructive on acts the government should take.

Not saying Bill is doing anything illegal, but Buffett does not engage in such tactics and the contrast is stark and apparent to me at least. It's the same with those funds that engage in shareholder activism (which Buffett eschews).
« Last Edit: March 25, 2020, 01:12:46 PM by Dalal.Holdings »
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Liberty

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #2476 on: March 25, 2020, 01:17:21 PM »
Defending one thing that one person did doesn’t mean defending everything they ever did. seems pretty obvious to me, but I guess it needs to be said.

Shorting something and then telling people why it’s bad is just the exact reverse of going long some thing and then telling people why it’s good. It’s then up to the listener to make up their minds if your analysis makes sense and you have credibility. There are a good longs, and there are bad longs, and there are good shorts, and there are bad shorts. Lumping everybody together  by category doesn’t make sense.

In any case, he wasn’t even short, he was just hedged, which is what hedge funds are supposed to do.  Losses elsewhere and his portfolio compensated for the gain.
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Dalal.Holdings

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #2477 on: March 25, 2020, 01:23:53 PM »
Defending one thing that one person did doesn’t mean defending everything they ever did. seems pretty obvious to me, but I guess it needs to be said.

Shorting something and then telling people why it’s bad is just the exact reverse of going long some thing and then telling people why it’s good. It’s then up to the listener to make up their minds if your analysis makes sense and you have credibility. There are a good longs, and there are bad longs, and there are good shorts, and there are bad shorts. Lumping everybody together  by category doesn’t make sense.

In any case, he wasn’t even short, he was just hedged, which is what hedge funds are supposed to do.  Losses elsewhere and his portfolio compensated for the gain.

Meh. I guess we'll agree to disagree. To me, shorting a company and trashing it != being long and praising a company. But that's just me.
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ERICOPOLY

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #2478 on: March 25, 2020, 01:39:19 PM »
Given that Trump's business interests have been directly excluded from the bailout/stimulus, does that make him more or less likely to undermine social distancing?

RichardGibbons

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #2479 on: March 25, 2020, 01:47:41 PM »
Given that Trump's business interests have been directly excluded from the bailout/stimulus, does that make him more or less likely to undermine social distancing?

More likely. The optimal outcome for the economy is to get everyone sick over the next 2-3 months, let all the old people die (they don't contribute much to the economy anyway), and then have life revert to normal when everyone has herd immunity.