Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 201923 times)

Santayana

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #2500 on: March 25, 2020, 05:33:49 PM »
I think the reason you can't completely discount the idea that it's been here for a while is that the R0 will be constantly changing as more people have immunity.   The idea of doubling makes sense when most people are susceptible, but once you get to the point where a large portion of the population has already been infected, the spread will start to look very different.

What we really need is antibody testing.


Castanza

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #2501 on: March 25, 2020, 05:38:48 PM »
All I have to say about this Bill nonsense is that I agree with Justin Amash.

Bills should be simple and on single issues. Every bill that hits the floor has hidden agendas and a bunch of unrelated nonsense attached to further degrade the freedoms of Americans while also further intrenching government. I mean how many times in the last two decades have we seen thousand page documents submitted and voted in all within 24hours. This is something everyone should be outraged about. From Obamacare to Omnibus the whole thing has been a joke.

—————————

Investment wise, I think a bill (regardless of what it is) will bring some much needed stability to the market. Then again, I kind of like the volatility.
I fully agree with you on the simplicity of bills. Sadly we don't live in that environment.

But c'mon, this is a 2 trillion dollar there's room in there for everyone's hobbies - Republican and Democrat. Usually those are pretty cheap too. But they wanted a 500 billion fund with no oversight to be used at the discretion of the Treasury - read  "Trump".

Now seriously, I don't care who you are lefty, righty, republican, democrat, agnostic, stoner, libertarian, extraterrestrial you can't tell me with a straight face that you trust Trump with 500 billion, no strings attached.

Start at 2:30 and see just a glimpse of all the add-ons. And no, I don’t trust Trump with 500B and I also don’t like the anonymity that was proposed for companies.

https://youtu.be/thkP6RaKvBQ


Liberty

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Dalal.Holdings

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #2503 on: March 25, 2020, 06:08:23 PM »
Granted this is an opinion piece but this has been my position all along. Will be interesting to see what the end result of this. Glad to see this was published in WSJ.

Yes, your opinion is that, let's say, 6 million were infected as of March 9th. If the infection rate doubles every 3 days, there should be 200 million infected. And by Friday, every single person in the US will be infected.

The problem is that no evidence supports this opinion.

If millions were infected months ago, then why are NYC ICUs filling up now? Is it the last few million cases that are leading to sudden surge of severe cases? Why were ICUs not stacked in January? In February? FYI many of these patients are requiring 1 week+ on ventilators.

What would we have seen in January and February for the "millions infected for months" scenario to be valid? What NYC hospitals are revealing to me now vs back then tells me in very clear terms that this thesis is invalid.

Or, as Charlie would say: invert, always invert.
« Last Edit: March 25, 2020, 06:13:26 PM by Dalal.Holdings »

ERICOPOLY

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #2504 on: March 25, 2020, 06:42:01 PM »
Trump believes that shelter-in-place is a media plot to undermine his presidency:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1242905328209080331?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

This tells us that he is resisting it in order to save his presidency.

John Hjorth

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #2505 on: March 25, 2020, 07:05:14 PM »
The Guardian [March 25th 2020] : Brazil gangs impose strict curfews to slow coronavirus spread.

Well, when the Brazilian president considers the corona situation a "minor cold", one must take action one self to protect own moaty business, when a virus is picking up competition against the monopoly to kill people.
« Last Edit: March 25, 2020, 07:10:21 PM by John Hjorth »
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Spekulatius

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #2506 on: March 25, 2020, 07:06:41 PM »
The Guardian [March 25th 2020] : Brazil gangs impose strict curfews to slow coronavirus spread.

Well, when the Brazilian president considers the corona situation a "minor cold", one must take action one self to protect own moaty business, when a virus is picking up competition against the monopoly to kill people.

LOL, more streetsmart than the government. These guys know a bit about surviving.
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RichardGibbons

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #2507 on: March 25, 2020, 07:47:28 PM »
FWIW, I agree that the optimal economic solution was the South Korea/Taiwan solutions, but I don't think that solution is available now.

The optimal all around solution is the hammer one described in the Medium article, or maybe there's a third, hybrid way, which would be to close state borders, and attempt to do a South Korean solution in the states with low cases, and a hammer in states with high cases. If that were possible, maybe that would actually be best.

(I actually think you do pretty well at lowering the R0 just by giving everyone masks and telling them to wash their hands.)

WRT herd immunity, I have no clue, and no good basis for an opinion. But if forced to opine, I'd say that herd immunity will work for the same virus, and even with mutated versions, it may confer a reasonable degree of resistance. Even with mutations, I suspect the odds are low of getting perpetual waves of mutated viruses with similar infectivity and morbidity as COVID-19. But I have no basis for that suspicion except an observation that that non-manmade things which change the natural world forever are unusual.

RichardGibbons

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #2508 on: March 25, 2020, 07:51:52 PM »
Trump believes that shelter-in-place is a media plot to undermine his presidency:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1242905328209080331?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

This tells us that he is resisting it in order to save his presidency.

Well, it could be second-order thinking--by creating an enemy, he might hope his supporters will focus on "us vs them" rather than the actual crisis, as they have been trained to do. (But I don't think he's actually sophisticated enough to do second-order thinking any more, so I agree that it's best to take him at face value.)

Viking

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #2509 on: March 25, 2020, 09:07:25 PM »
Trump believes that shelter-in-place is a media plot to undermine his presidency:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1242905328209080331?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

This tells us that he is resisting it in order to save his presidency.

Canadian media (and federal and provincial governments ) is also in on the plot (to undermine Trump’s presidency) because they are saying the same thing. Europe too.

It finally makes sense. Trump has finally figured it out... and everyone in the globe is in on it :-)
« Last Edit: March 25, 2020, 09:09:38 PM by Viking »