Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 224358 times)

minten

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #2580 on: March 26, 2020, 01:26:11 PM »
Realize you are trying to put things iin perspective, but in the long run it is kind of irrelevant isnít it - especially to those who has it?

Sure, every death is terrible on a micro-level. When discussing on a macro-level we normally never go down to the micro-level though. Not sure how it helps to do so now.

A national newspaper in my country wrote a whole piece today how it's perfectly normal in regular times for hospitals to assign a certain worth to a life: i.e. what treatment is (or isn't) offered to which patient, based on disease, age, life expectancy, whatever. And that there's a limit to what you'll be offered if the math just doesn't support it.
By the newspapers' own calculations the worth assigned to saving a life in this crisis is at least 100 times higher per patient than in any other disease/treatment out there. To be honest, their methodology was quite flawed, but you get my point.


Jurgis

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #2581 on: March 26, 2020, 01:30:31 PM »
Does Gates know anything about infectious diseases? Isnít he just some tech billionaire? What a dummy!

The Gates Foundation has been woking on infectious diseases around the world for more than a decade.  Just read their annual reports.  There are probably very few people with his combination of real world experience and knowledge of infectious diseases.  He will be on a cnn tonite at 8 pm with Dr Fauci.

Viking's sarcasm went "whoosh" for this crowd...  ::)
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krazeenyc

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #2582 on: March 26, 2020, 01:34:45 PM »
Does Gates know anything about infectious diseases? Isnít he just some tech billionaire? What a dummy!

The Gates Foundation has been woking on infectious diseases around the world for more than a decade.  Just read their annual reports.  There are probably very few people with his combination of real world experience and knowledge of infectious diseases.  He will be on a cnn tonite at 8 pm with Dr Fauci.

Viking's sarcasm went "whoosh" for this crowd...  ::)

LOL.

Dalal.Holdings

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #2583 on: March 26, 2020, 01:35:56 PM »
FYI, COVID daily deaths now exceed that from daily auto accident deaths in the United States...

FYI, still nowhere near (as in less than 10%) to cancer deaths.  or cardio vascular deaths for that matter.

Yup - thank goodness neither of those are communicable.

Yep --  also comparing conditions that kill people slowly "of old age" (after accumulating a lifetime of risk factors like obesity, cholesterol, smoking) with an infection that you can catch from spending minutes with someone who has it is sure to lead you to false conclusions.

This gives me an idea. Instead of just comparing COVID deaths to cardiovascular deaths and cancer deaths, why not just compare to total deaths from all causes? Ah, much more reassuring!

We could have done the same during WW2 and realized the war was no big deal--many more people were dying from cancer & heart disease than gunshots.

jjsto

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #2584 on: March 26, 2020, 01:41:04 PM »
Does Gates know anything about infectious diseases? Isnít he just some tech billionaire? What a dummy!

The Gates Foundation has been woking on infectious diseases around the world for more than a decade.  Just read their annual reports.  There are probably very few people with his combination of real world experience and knowledge of infectious diseases.  He will be on a cnn tonite at 8 pm with Dr Fauci.

Viking's sarcasm went "whoosh" for this crowd...  ::)

LOL.

Haha.  True.  Only recently reading this thread looking back at the last few days of posts, it is so politicized in parts, it is hard to tell what is sarcasm and what is said through political blinders.  Sorry.

Spekulatius

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #2585 on: March 26, 2020, 01:42:15 PM »
Nearing 80k confirmed cases in the U.S.

Within 48 hours, U.S. is on track to become the country with the most cases worldwide (more than China with 3x the population if you trust their numbers). Let that sink in.

Based on how people on Florida behave (Spring, full beaches) I think that state will have its moment too. Lots and lots of old people as well. Perhaps the warm weather will help, but it doesnít seem to play as much of a role than thought, based on the countries the epidemic is spreading too.

So if Trump says that the country is open for business, does it means that people actually will go back into stores, to their hairdressers or the coffee place around the corner.

Certainly I wouldnít. Went for a grocery run yesterday and put mask and a gloves on. I wasnít the only one either, some Asian family even had the good N95 on it. The GwaiLoís did will lesser surgical masks or some used their scarfs. I have got one handmade by my wife with some leftover med tech materials. It has some chinese letters on it, which helps with social distancing. ;D
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cwericb

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #2586 on: March 26, 2020, 01:42:43 PM »
"Viking's sarcasm went "whoosh" for this crowd...  "

Duh, should have known he was smarter than that. Apologies.
Politicians and diapers must be changed often, and for the same reason. - Mark Twain

Spekulatius

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #2587 on: March 26, 2020, 01:51:26 PM »
Value investor: Covid-19 is just a minor flu. Flu infects 10-15% of the population and kills 40-50k for a 0.1-0.15% morbidity rate. Covid-19 kills 700 1000 people. Itís just a rounding error. Yawn.

Growth investor: Huge addressable market -330M people. no known limit. Doubles every 4 days. Morbidity 0.5-10%. Lollapalooza effect for morbidity when case numbers exceed a certain local density and the health care system breaks down.
« Last Edit: March 26, 2020, 01:55:23 PM by Spekulatius »
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dcollon

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #2588 on: March 26, 2020, 02:06:17 PM »
There have been a lot of very worthwhile posts on this thread, but it has kind of gotten off the rails. 

I have truly learned from all of you, but let's try to get it back to facts as we know them today...realizing this is a very fluid situation.

Thanks so much for all the data, articles, charts, etc...


Gregmal

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #2589 on: March 26, 2020, 02:26:57 PM »
Yup, this thread started out pretty interesting and informative(Viking and Spekulatus for instance I found greatly helpful in their shared thoughts) but I moved on as it became clear there was little useful discussion for investing but rather became an echo chamber for people to ramble like drunken clowns and drum up nonsensical doomsday hysteria, zombie apocalypse wet dreams, with an overcoat of political bias. I think the best investable ideas I could pry from anyone was Dalals "RCL puts" which was basically retail investor on twitter worthy, ignorant of its 200%+ annual negative carry cost. Some people just lost it. A forum full of value investors and BRK was recently trading under book but everyones scared and I guess their cash is currently earning 0% in quarantine.