Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 463445 times)

Liberty

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #5760 on: May 22, 2020, 02:06:41 PM »
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Liberty

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #5761 on: May 22, 2020, 02:08:07 PM »
From a doc I follow (his background: "ICU doc with expertise in biothreats preparedness, translational research, and drug/vaccine development."):

Quote
Big drop in MA cases today - 16 days after universal mask-wearing became law.

https://twitter.com/notdred/status/1263937036815384576?s=20

Daily stats from states are unreliable and I hope people don't make conclusions based on them.
There were zero cases in MA one of the days: https://covidtracking.com/data/state/massachusetts#historical

Of course. It's still a better sign to see it down than up, it's just a small update to priors that should be tracked over time to get a significant sample.

I mostly didn't know that MA had done this about masks, that was the most interesting part of it, so it'll be interesting to track
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Jurgis

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #5762 on: May 22, 2020, 02:12:25 PM »
From a doc I follow (his background: "ICU doc with expertise in biothreats preparedness, translational research, and drug/vaccine development."):

Quote
Big drop in MA cases today - 16 days after universal mask-wearing became law.

https://twitter.com/notdred/status/1263937036815384576?s=20

Daily stats from states are unreliable and I hope people don't make conclusions based on them.
There were zero cases in MA one of the days: https://covidtracking.com/data/state/massachusetts#historical

Of course. It's still a better sign to see it down than up, it's just a small update to priors that should be tracked over time to get a significant sample.

I mostly didn't know that MA had done this about masks, that was the most interesting part of it, so it'll be interesting to track

It's not as restrictive as you probably think. It just pretty much means that you have to wear mask inside a business. You can go maskless outside.

Edit: Here is the official ref: https://www.mass.gov/info-details/frequently-asked-questions-about-covid-19#should-i-wear-a-mask-when-i-go-out-in-public?
« Last Edit: May 22, 2020, 02:18:54 PM by Jurgis »
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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #5763 on: May 22, 2020, 02:31:28 PM »
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/22/dr-anthony-fauci-says-staying-closed-for-too-long-could-cause-irreparable-damage.html

Quote
Stay-at-home orders intended to curb the spread of the coronavirus could end up causing “irreparable damage” if imposed for too long, White House health advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci said.

“I don’t want people to think that any of us feel that staying locked down for a prolonged period of time is the way to go,” he told CNBC.

Indeed. Exactly why managing the situation well is so important, and mismanaging it is so costly and has strong non-linear effects (as expected from an exponential process).
And the cheapest way to achieve that well managed situation is with clear consistent messaging based on the latest and best science. That really comes at a low cost which means that the cost benefit analysis is off the charts in the positive direction. Unfortunately, that is that part Trump can be most directly blamed for. It is low cost and high payoff and it was completely botched with no one else to blame.

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #5764 on: May 22, 2020, 03:02:00 PM »
I think you're mistaking what I'm saying. I'm citing CDC's latest "best estimate". Maybe it's best we leave it there.

Then please cite the actual CDC best estimate and leave the other extrapolations out of it.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

Scroll down to: Scenario 5: Current Best Estimate
It would be great news if this doesn't turn out to be overly optimistic propaganda that was produced due to political pressure from the Trump administration, but I don't plan on holding my breath.

The US CDC's reputation has probably been more tarnished than the other US agencies involved and this might just turn out to be another blow to the CDC's reputation, which may be a reflection of current leadership and not the vast majority of those at the CDC.

These estimates don't seem to match other current research and at best it is on the extreme optimistic end of the spectrum and that apparent bias is already being criticized as such by some experts.

Viking

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #5765 on: May 22, 2020, 03:42:05 PM »
There is so much we do not understand about the virus. Chinese and Trump approaches to managing the pandemic are almost exact opposites so with each month that passes we will also get more information as to how effective each approach is from both health and economic perspectives. We all better hope we do not get a second serious wave before a vaccine is ready...

China’s New Outbreak Shows Signs the Virus Could Be Changing
- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-20/china-sees-signs-new-cluster-carries-virus-longer-than-in-wuhan

Chinese doctors are seeing the coronavirus manifest differently among patients in its new cluster of cases in the northeast region compared to the original outbreak in Wuhan, suggesting that the pathogen may be changing in unknown ways and complicating efforts to stamp it out.

Patients found in the northern provinces of Jilin and Heilongjiang appear to carry the virus for a longer period of time and take longer to test negative, Qiu Haibo, one of China’s top critical care doctors, told state television on Tuesday.

Patients in the northeast also appear to be taking longer than the one to two weeks observed in Wuhan to develop symptoms after infection, and this delayed onset is making it harder for authorities to catch cases before they spread, said Qiu, who is now in the northern region treating patients.

“The longer period during which infected patients show no symptoms has created clusters of family infections,” said Qiu, who was earlier sent to Wuhan to help in the original outbreak. Some 46 cases have been reported over the past two weeks spread across three cities -- Shulan, Jilin city and Shengyang -- in two provinces, a resurgence of infection that sparked renewed lockdown measures over a region of 100 million people.

Scientists still do not fully understand if the virus is changing in significant ways and the differences Chinese doctors are seeing could be due to the fact that they’re able to observe patients more thoroughly and from an earlier stage than in Wuhan. When the outbreak first exploded in the central Chinese city, the local health-care system was so overwhelmed that only the most serious cases were being treated. The northeast cluster is also far smaller than Hubei’s outbreak, which ultimately sickened over 68,000 people.

...The northeast provinces have ordered a return of lockdown measures, halting train services, closing schools and sealing off residential compounds, dismaying residents who had thought the worst was over.

“People should not assume the peak has passed or let down their guard,” Wu Anhua, a senior infectious disease doctor, said on state television on Tuesday. “It’s totally possible that the epidemic will last for a long time.”

Spekulatius

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #5766 on: May 22, 2020, 03:49:13 PM »
https://news.bloomberglaw.com/coronavirus/adding-zinc-to-malaria-drug-mix-may-help-covid-19-patients-heal
Adding zinc to a cocktail of medicines touted by President Donald Trump may help Covid-19 patients survive and recover enough to be sent home from the hospital, according to researchers in New York City.

A group of 411 patients given zinc along with the malaria medicine hydroxychloroquine and the antibiotic azithromycin for five days were 44% less likely to die and 50% more likely to be discharged home than a comparison group of 521 patients who didn’t get the supplement.

What would the numbers be for taking zinc by itself, or for the cocktail without adding the hydroxychloroquine? 

The study says patients treated with hydrochloroquine benefit from zinc, but perhaps a more important question is whether patients treated with zinc benefit from the potentially deadly hydrochloroquine?

Eric, the study is between Zinc, HCQ +Azithromycin vs HCQ+Azithromycin.

The authors believe that HCQ helps zinc absorb and Zinc has antiviral properties.

https://www.sciencetimes.com/articles/25658/20200512/hydroxychloroquine-azithromycin-zinc-triple-combo-proved-effective-coronavirus-patients-study.htm

In the study, half of 900 COVID-19 patients were given the triple-drug combo of hydroxychloroquine, zinc, and azithromycin.

The other half were given only hydroxychloroquine and the antibiotic, azithromycin.

I just take zinc and save myself the rest. Great benefit cost ratio. The rest I am not sure about.
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frank87

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #5767 on: May 22, 2020, 04:03:59 PM »
I think you're mistaking what I'm saying. I'm citing CDC's latest "best estimate". Maybe it's best we leave it there.

Then please cite the actual CDC best estimate and leave the other extrapolations out of it.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

Scroll down to: Scenario 5: Current Best Estimate
It would be great news if this doesn't turn out to be overly optimistic propaganda that was produced due to political pressure from the Trump administration, but I don't plan on holding my breath.

The US CDC's reputation has probably been more tarnished than the other US agencies involved and this might just turn out to be another blow to the CDC's reputation, which may be a reflection of current leadership and not the vast majority of those at the CDC.

These estimates don't seem to match other current research and at best it is on the extreme optimistic end of the spectrum and that apparent bias is already being criticized as such by some experts.

I think they’re basing the IFRs off the serology tests which have estimated IFRs anywhere from 0.05% to 0.5% (in NYC).

There’s been a very wide range of CFRs between countries. So I’m not sure why we should weight the experience in NYC more than that of a place like Singapore where CFR has been 0.1%.

stahleyp

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #5768 on: May 22, 2020, 06:04:25 PM »
For those that think governments should require masks in order to "save lives," do you also think the government should ban abortions to "save lives?"

If not, why do you believe in "my body, my choice" for for one and not the other? The death rate on abortion (for the aborted humans) is far, far higher than the death rate from covid19.

LOL.  How about ban cars?  Why abortions?  The ultimate political hijacking thwarted (I hope).

Covid 19 has killed more than cars. Abortion has killed more than covid19.

Keep in mind, my argument isn't just saving lives, it's also about what the government say we can (or cannot do) to our bodies.  Why is it okay to use the slogan only when it benefits your political ideology?

Are you seriously comparing the cost (human, not financial though that also probably applies) of having an abortion and not wearing a mask??? Further, the mask is probably going to save the health of many people at very little cost and inconvenience to the wearer.

I am also curious about what you think of the modesty laws which are more stringent in the US than Europe? Why are those laws okay when it concerns your body and why haven't there been many protests encouraged by the president on that incredible violation of freedom compared to the simple requirement to wear a mask?

I would argue the human cost is far, far higher with abortion than covid19 (so far anyway). financially? I don't know.

I haven't thought much about modesty laws. I don't see how what to wear (or not) is violating "speech" though.

I am talking about the cost incurred of wearing a mask vs that incurred by an abortion. The former is almost costless and has a significant benefit while the latter has a very high cost. The only reason not to wear the mask given the low cost of the effort seems to be the disrespect of the health of others. It is really very similar to the wearing of a seatbelt - very low cost and increases your and other's safety tremendously (especially if everyone is involved in not wearing the mask as that reduces R0 tremendously and stops the pandemic in the tracks).

Also, how is required wearing of a mask violating free speech any more than the modesty laws? The banning of hijabs etc is a much more direct violation of free speech but I usually see little objection to that, especially among the right wing (though this is only an issue in Europe).

Wouldn't you say that abortion is very disrespectful to the health of the one being aborted? I would think that banning abortion would be far less expensive than using masks. You could ban them for free. Masks aren't free. I also don't see why wearing seat belts is required if people want "choice."

I just find it funny that people want government to control others when it suits their interests/wants but not in areas that they don't want to be told what to do. It doesn't make much sense.

That depends on whether you consider there to be a person involved at all in the case of abortion. Does using a condom become disrespectful to the potential persons? Strawman much?? :)

But more importantly, the mask concretely reduces the infection of potentially hundreds of actual human beings, not just one, with many super spreader events having infected at least hundreds of people. The economic benefit of a single disposable mask in terms of human has been estimated to be at least several thousand dollars.

Looking at your responses, it is no wonder the ultra right wing has been urging its people to actively spread covid among minorities and to stop people wearing masks (survival of the fittest?).

Abortion kills more minorities than covid does. In fact, the founder of Planned Parenthood was a big into eugenics. I see no evidence that an aborted baby isn't a human. It even has human dna - that is unique from the mother. In what other situation doesn't that happen expect in separate humans?

I don't see how this is a strawman. Semen isn't a person (it has the say dna as the male).
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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #5769 on: May 22, 2020, 06:24:02 PM »
In fact, the founder of Planned Parenthood was a big into eugenics.

In fact, George Washington was a slavemaster.

This isn't coronavirus though.  Can abortion be discussed elsewhere?