Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 455042 times)

stahleyp

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #5770 on: May 22, 2020, 07:10:04 PM »
In fact, the founder of Planned Parenthood was a big into eugenics.

In fact, George Washington was a slavemaster.

This isn't coronavirus though.  Can abortion be discussed elsewhere?

okay, okay! ;)

Just trying to understand the logic of it (or lack thereof).
« Last Edit: May 22, 2020, 07:13:24 PM by stahleyp »
Paul


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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #5771 on: May 22, 2020, 07:32:40 PM »
https://news.bloomberglaw.com/coronavirus/adding-zinc-to-malaria-drug-mix-may-help-covid-19-patients-heal
Adding zinc to a cocktail of medicines touted by President Donald Trump may help Covid-19 patients survive and recover enough to be sent home from the hospital, according to researchers in New York City.

A group of 411 patients given zinc along with the malaria medicine hydroxychloroquine and the antibiotic azithromycin for five days were 44% less likely to die and 50% more likely to be discharged home than a comparison group of 521 patients who didnít get the supplement.

What would the numbers be for taking zinc by itself, or for the cocktail without adding the hydroxychloroquine? 

The study says patients treated with hydrochloroquine benefit from zinc, but perhaps a more important question is whether patients treated with zinc benefit from the potentially deadly hydrochloroquine?

Eric, the study is between Zinc, HCQ +Azithromycin vs HCQ+Azithromycin.

The authors believe that HCQ helps zinc absorb and Zinc has antiviral properties.

https://www.sciencetimes.com/articles/25658/20200512/hydroxychloroquine-azithromycin-zinc-triple-combo-proved-effective-coronavirus-patients-study.htm

In the study, half of 900 COVID-19 patients were given the triple-drug combo of hydroxychloroquine, zinc, and azithromycin.

The other half were given only hydroxychloroquine and the antibiotic, azithromycin.

I just take zinc and save myself the rest. Great benefit cost ratio. The rest I am not sure about.

Does Zinc alone work as a prophylactic?  I dont know but the authors of this article don't believe so.  Unlike what Eric said, their theory is just not an hypothesis.  They gave two citations.

From the article:
Zinc inhibits RNA dependent RNA polymerase, and has been shown to do this in vitro against SARS-CoV[13]. However, it is difficult to generate substantial intracellular concentrations of zinc, therefore prophylactic administration of zinc alone may not play a role against SarCoV-2[14]. When combined with a zinc ionophore, such as chloroquine (hydroxychloroquine), cellular uptake is increased making it more likely to achieve suitably elevated intracellular concentrations[15].

The Citation 13:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2973827/
Zn2+ Inhibits Coronavirus and Arterivirus RNA Polymerase Activity In Vitro and Zinc Ionophores Block the Replication of These Viruses in Cell Culture; Published online 2010 Nov 4.

The Citation 15:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4182877/
Chloroquine Is a Zinc Ionophore; Published online 2014 Oct 1

The article also says

"However, our findings do not suggest a prophylactic benefit of zinc sulfate in the absence of a zinc ionophore, despite interest in this therapy for prevention.  A prophylactic strategy of zinc sulfate should be evaluated to help answer this question."

Its upto you whether you want to take Zinc alone as supplement.  Just stating whats in the article.




mattee2264

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #5772 on: May 23, 2020, 03:19:41 AM »

 https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-21211/v1

Ensuring adequate vitamin D levels also seems to be helpful. A vitamin D deficiency would also help to explain why the elderly and those in care homes and nursing homes are suffering so much. And more anecdotally in the UK where I'm from we've had a massive heatwave and true to form Brits have ignored lockdown regulations and flocked to the parks and beaches and getting as much sun as they can and cases have continued to drop.

orthopa

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #5773 on: May 23, 2020, 04:12:24 AM »
CDC just came out with their new estimate for the infection fatality ratio (IFR) - 0.27%. Are we just dealing with something as deadly as the flu but since it's novel, it's far more easily spread?

Hey! Can people who have no idea what the IFR of the flu is please stop saying Covid "is just as deadly as the flu"?

Hey! With the CDCs latest best estimate we maybe getting close to that.

Keep in mind that the flu has that IFR with a widely available cheap vaccine and now 2 approved medications to treat it. Corona of course has neither a vaccine or approved widely available meds.

So looking at it this way if there was not a flu shot available, and no meds to treat it, how high would its IFR be?

Cigarbutt

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #5774 on: May 23, 2020, 05:27:31 AM »

 https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-21211/v1

Ensuring adequate vitamin D levels also seems to be helpful. A vitamin D deficiency would also help to explain why the elderly and those in care homes and nursing homes are suffering so much. And more anecdotally in the UK where I'm from we've had a massive heatwave and true to form Brits have ignored lockdown regulations and flocked to the parks and beaches and getting as much sun as they can and cases have continued to drop.
i'm presently involved (on a personal and otherwise level) in the circumstances described in the above bolded part and reading your post induced a cardiac pause. If you read this, could you elaborate (bcoz there must be something i'm missing)?

frank87

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #5775 on: May 23, 2020, 05:39:07 AM »
CDC just came out with their new estimate for the infection fatality ratio (IFR) - 0.27%. Are we just dealing with something as deadly as the flu but since it's novel, it's far more easily spread?

Hey! Can people who have no idea what the IFR of the flu is please stop saying Covid "is just as deadly as the flu"?

Hey! With the CDCs latest best estimate we maybe getting close to that.

Keep in mind that the flu has that IFR with a widely available cheap vaccine and now 2 approved medications to treat it. Corona of course has neither a vaccine or approved widely available meds.

So looking at it this way if there was not a flu shot available, and no meds to treat it, how high would its IFR be?

There's also the matter of counting. It isn't at all clear what deaths are caused by the flu, so the numerator and denominator are all guesses. While standard practice (likely for expediency) for counting COVID deaths is to count all deaths for which the deceased tested positive for it. So the stated IFRs may not be as comparable as one might think.

KCLarkin

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #5776 on: May 23, 2020, 07:33:58 AM »
Hey! With the CDCs latest best estimate we maybe getting close to that.

4x isn't close**. It is a dangerous, BS narrative.

CDC "best estimate" of Covid IFR-S = 0.4
CDC estimate of flu IFR-S last year (my calculations)* = 0.095

* 2018/2019 Estimated deaths / est. symptomatic illness = 34,000 / 35,000,000 = 0.095
Source: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html
** And the CDC estimate is low compared to other experts. For example, Dr. Fauci estimates 10x.
Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/top-federal-health-official-says-coronavirus-outbreak-is-going-to-get-worse-in-the-us.html
« Last Edit: May 23, 2020, 07:59:34 AM by KCLarkin »

ERICOPOLY

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #5777 on: May 23, 2020, 07:59:31 AM »
Hey! With the CDCs latest best estimate we maybe getting close to that.

4x isn't close**. It is a dangerous, BS narrative.

CDC "best estimate" of Covid IFR-S = 0.4
CDC estimate of flu IFR-S last year (my calculations)* = 0.095

* 2018/2019 Estimated deaths / est. symptomatic illness = 34,000 / 35,000,000 = 0.095
Source: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html
** And the CDC estimate is low compared to other experts. For example, Dr. Fauci estimates 10x.
Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/top-federal-health-official-says-coronavirus-outbreak-is-going-to-get-worse-in-the-us.html

Is the CDC calculation of these numbers going to be affected by their admissions of reporting overcounted testing data?

Scientists Warn CDC Testing Data Could Create Misleading Picture Of Pandemic
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/21/860480756/scientists-warn-cdc-testing-data-could-create-misleading-picture-of-pandemic

Spekulatius

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #5778 on: May 23, 2020, 09:10:52 AM »
Hey! With the CDCs latest best estimate we maybe getting close to that.

4x isn't close**. It is a dangerous, BS narrative.

CDC "best estimate" of Covid IFR-S = 0.4
CDC estimate of flu IFR-S last year (my calculations)* = 0.095

* 2018/2019 Estimated deaths / est. symptomatic illness = 34,000 / 35,000,000 = 0.095
Source: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html
** And the CDC estimate is low compared to other experts. For example, Dr. Fauci estimates 10x.
Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/top-federal-health-official-says-coronavirus-outbreak-is-going-to-get-worse-in-the-us.html

I do not know where the CDCís IFR rate comes from,  it I think it is possible to get the IFR rate to 0.4% (my current ballpark numbers are roughly 2x that). other countries have shown IFR rates of 0.4% and Less than that, it might be as simple as protecting the elderly better.

Still, if you go herd immunity - 0.4% with 200M infections are 800k death. That needs to be seem relative to the 2.5M people dying in the US naturally, but even though.

In addition to the just binary dead or alive after infection discussion, I have some concerns about those that survive severe episodes as far as quality of life and LT morbidity is concerned.
Life is too short for cheap beer and wine.

orthopa

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #5779 on: May 23, 2020, 09:16:06 AM »
Hey! With the CDCs latest best estimate we maybe getting close to that.

4x isn't close**. It is a dangerous, BS narrative.

CDC "best estimate" of Covid IFR-S = 0.4
CDC estimate of flu IFR-S last year (my calculations)* = 0.095

* 2018/2019 Estimated deaths / est. symptomatic illness = 34,000 / 35,000,000 = 0.095
Source: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html
** And the CDC estimate is low compared to other experts. For example, Dr. Fauci estimates 10x.
Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/top-federal-health-official-says-coronavirus-outbreak-is-going-to-get-worse-in-the-us.html

My "getting close to that" references the fact that your comparing a virus with a widely available, cheap vaccine and 2 widely available medications to a novel one with neither. So yeah the comparison is BS. Not because its a narrative but because your naively comparing death rates between a treated disease to a non treated disease.

We are at 4x worse comparing the flu with a vaccine, some acquired herd immunity and meds to a virus with none.

Whats your best estimate for the flu with neither a vaccine, tamiflu, and xofluza?  Historically ~40% (83,600,000) of the adult US population gets the flu vaccine and in 2009 during h1n1 the vaccine was 56% effective. One of the higher effectiveness rates in recent time. Let vaccinate 40% of the US population with a corona vaccine (how about we start with the immunocompromised and nursing home pts) and get 2 meds FDA approved showing efficacy comparable to what we have the flu and see where we are. Whats your best guess there 1.5-2x worse tops?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_vaccine

Like I said I think we are getting close to that.

**edit Fauci early on also postulated that HIV could spread via respiratory droplets and other then body fluids making it far more dangerous then it was. Point being I would take all early assumptions with a novel virus with a grain of salt. That article is 2 months old.
« Last Edit: May 23, 2020, 09:27:07 AM by orthopa »