Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 542687 times)

Cigarbutt

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #6550 on: June 30, 2020, 08:14:59 AM »
I think when investing, one needs to remove emotion as much as possible. You have to think/be a socio-path. Its not "feel good" or anything to boast about, but its how things work. People essentially are cogs or data points. There is a great line from Big Short where Ben Rickard says, "you know what I hate about banking, it reduces people to numbers"....Part of the reason I moved out of the financial world as much as possible after getting setup, and have the goal to be removed from it completely within the next few years. Its not for everybody, but its how the game is played. Ask any PM honestly if they'd trade 1M senior citizens for an S&P rebound in 2021 and they all likely vote yes. I think if you are in the markets you have to be aware of these things and anticipate those directions. Its the stance that much of the US is taking through policy action.
The problem with that is that people can collectively panic and react in unpredictable ways. This epidemic has the potential to kill perhaps 0.5% of the population or ~1.7M people based on current data
 If you just remove 1.7M people from the economy with a large skew toward older people, then you could conclude it’s not a big deal. However if you think it through and consider that those 1.7M people collectively have a lot of money and perhaps don’t want to die and there are ~30M people with a lot of money in the same risk group, Who will behave very differently then it starts to matter.
Florida and  Arizona might be good examples of this. Are older people still going to move there (these states are big destinations for retirees) while they let the Virus circulate freely? If they are already there, will those people spent money in restaurants etc? Unlike the millennials, those folks tend to have a lot of money, so it does matter what they think and how they feel.
Florida has a big tourism industry on top of the retirees l so how this will be going? Even if you aren’t scared for your life, it’s not a great prospect to contract a disease that is far worse than having a flu for 2-3 weeks? Worth going to Disneyland for? Then there are European and Asian travelers which at this point are going to be a zero, as they will require quarantine upon coming back most likely. Most folks from these countries won’t bother visiting the US anyways for a while. So, I think the economic impact of this delayed wave in these states will be significant.
The good news and the reason why Mr. Market hasn’t panicked yet, is they death rates are still low. I think they will go up somewhat but hopefully we will never seen the levels seen in the NE from March/April again anywhere.
Exactly—you can’t just look at deaths and ignore the second/third order effects. Certainly not in a consumption oriented economy like the U.S....airlines, restaurants, retail, hotels—many of these are low margin businesses and even a 10-15% revenue hit can be devastating. To think that “isolating seniors” will somehow spare the economy pain is nuts.
The best thing that could have been done for the economy was to act early—January/February—we did not. Then the next thing was to ensure it did not rise again in the U.S. once you stop the initial surge...as you are seeing we also did not achieve this. So now we have EU countries mostly moving past this because they did what was needed and U.S. stuck in viral quagmire with even R governors scaling back reopening now and closing bars...
As was said way back—an ounce of prevention would have been worth pounds and pounds of cure, but our federal leadership is at best uninterested in being proactive and and worst exacerbating things by denying and holding indoor rallies in AZ, TX, OK...if you think it’s political, then oh well
---) policy-political part
Letting the pandemic run its course will create noise but an improved demographic profile would result in more potential growth in standards of living for the remaining population (evolutionary perspective). WWII did wonders for economic growth for the victors, even if your country's infrastructures were devastated by war. It's the transition that matters. Countries like Brazil (and a few others) have limited real capacity to limit the spread, Sweden tried to formulate a "sustainable" approach which limitations have become obvious over time, the area where i live had significant spread because mostly of competence and governance issues and it looks like the US has collectively (?) chosen a unique way to muddle through, with excess mortality. In the Houston area, it's been reported that 15% of CV-dedicated ICU beds are occupied by people in their 20s and 30s. This is not enough to show in the aggregate statistics but the excess mortality is real.
I get it that greed is good and is part of the equation. It's just that increasing levels of greed has met marginal declines in overall utility in the US and the CV episode triggered another inequity notch up, taking the entire population closer to non-linear changes. Even if one adopts the evolutionary perspective, an argument can be made that the drift may have reached a point where imbalances will correct somehow with potential negative impacts on most portfolios. Debt-fueled temporary UBIs are unlikely to do the trick IMO.
An argument could be made that the US delayed its entry into WWI and WWII in order to minimize the impact (casualties) on its population and to maximize the domestic economic benefits at large. This time around, aiming to maximize the economic benefits will tend to concentrate in the few and the burden will fall on a group large enough not to stay silent.

---)fundamental part
A key aspect of this pandemic is the significance of asymptomatic carriers (CV+). It appears that this aspect has been underestimated, to some degree, and many asymptomatic carriers carry high viral loads, can spread the virus and show significant lung disease (as shown on test images). It's a real challenge.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0965-6.pdf
@Gregmal, Figure 2 adds other evidence that the Ct-level does not show a significant difference between symptomatic and asymptomatic carriers.
One of the challenging messages is that asymptomatic carriers also develop antibodies that don't stick around, meaning that the key to resist this disease is to have the inherent ability to mount an immune response, an ability that is distributed very unevenly in the general population.


stahleyp

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #6551 on: June 30, 2020, 10:00:33 AM »
Alright, alright, let's settle this.

Greg and Dalal, please post your personal performance for the YTD, 5 and 10 years.
Paul

Spekulatius

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #6552 on: June 30, 2020, 10:49:31 AM »
Anectode:
My wife told me that a Thai friend (with a Thai passport) has to quarantine for 2 weeks upon arrival in Thailand from the US. Apparently the US wasn’t on the quarantine list when he booked his travel.

Good news is that the Thai government pays for his quarantine stay in a hotel and the food, because he is a Thai citizen ( he has an US passport as well).

He did have a confirmation of a negative test COVID-19 Test result ( done 2 days before he left) but it didn’t matter.
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rb

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #6553 on: June 30, 2020, 11:02:31 AM »

The problem with that is that people can collectively panic and react in unpredictable ways. This epidemic has the potential to kill perhaps 0.5% of the population or ~1.7M people based on current data
 If you just remove 1.7M people from the economy with a large skew toward older people, then you could conclude it’s not a big deal. However if you think it through and consider that those 1.7M people collectively have a lot of money and perhaps don’t want to die and there are ~30M people with a lot of money in the same risk group, Who will behave very differently then it starts to matter.

Florida and  Arizona might be good examples of this. Are older people still going to move there (these states are big destinations for retirees) while they let the Virus circulate freely? If they are already there, will those people spent money in restaurants etc? Unlike the millennials, those folks tend to have a lot of money, so it does matter what they think and how they feel.

Florida has a big tourism industry on top of the retirees l so how this will be going? Even if you aren’t scared for your life, it’s not a great prospect to contract a disease that is far worse than having a flu for 2-3 weeks? Worth going to Disneyland for? Then there are European and Asian travelers which at this point are going to be a zero, as they will require quarantine upon coming back most likely. Most folks from these countries won’t bother visiting the US anyways for a while. So, I think the economic impact of this delayed wave in these states will be significant.

The good news and the reason why Mr. Market hasn’t panicked yet, is they death rates are still low. I think they will go up somewhat but hopefully we will never seen the levels seen in the NE from March/April again anywhere.
This is really gonna bite economically in FL and AZ.

There's a ton of Canadians that just pack it in in the winter and just go down to FL. My guess is that it's not gonna happen this year. They don't care about Trump/DeSantis political posturing, they would prefer to stay alive, and I don't think any insurance company is gonna sell them a COVID policy. These Canadian also tend to be of the wealthier variety that have a lot of money to spend.

The same thing goes triple for AZ. Canadians own so much of that place it may as well be the 11th province.

Gregmal

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #6554 on: June 30, 2020, 12:03:00 PM »

The problem with that is that people can collectively panic and react in unpredictable ways. This epidemic has the potential to kill perhaps 0.5% of the population or ~1.7M people based on current data
 If you just remove 1.7M people from the economy with a large skew toward older people, then you could conclude it’s not a big deal. However if you think it through and consider that those 1.7M people collectively have a lot of money and perhaps don’t want to die and there are ~30M people with a lot of money in the same risk group, Who will behave very differently then it starts to matter.

Florida and  Arizona might be good examples of this. Are older people still going to move there (these states are big destinations for retirees) while they let the Virus circulate freely? If they are already there, will those people spent money in restaurants etc? Unlike the millennials, those folks tend to have a lot of money, so it does matter what they think and how they feel.

Florida has a big tourism industry on top of the retirees l so how this will be going? Even if you aren’t scared for your life, it’s not a great prospect to contract a disease that is far worse than having a flu for 2-3 weeks? Worth going to Disneyland for? Then there are European and Asian travelers which at this point are going to be a zero, as they will require quarantine upon coming back most likely. Most folks from these countries won’t bother visiting the US anyways for a while. So, I think the economic impact of this delayed wave in these states will be significant.

The good news and the reason why Mr. Market hasn’t panicked yet, is they death rates are still low. I think they will go up somewhat but hopefully we will never seen the levels seen in the NE from March/April again anywhere.
This is really gonna bite economically in FL and AZ.

There's a ton of Canadians that just pack it in in the winter and just go down to FL. My guess is that it's not gonna happen this year. They don't care about Trump/DeSantis political posturing, they would prefer to stay alive, and I don't think any insurance company is gonna sell them a COVID policy. These Canadian also tend to be of the wealthier variety that have a lot of money to spend.

The same thing goes triple for AZ. Canadians own so much of that place it may as well be the 11th province.

While this is all true, it is also almost certainly temporary. The virus will likely be irrelevant in 2 years. Which the history books will remember, in the economic sense, as a textbook recession.

Liberty

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #6555 on: June 30, 2020, 01:21:02 PM »
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/30/fauci-says-us-coronavirus-outbreak-is-going-to-be-very-disturbing-could-top-100000-cases-a-day.html

Quote
The U.S. is “not in total control” of the coronavirus pandemic and daily new cases could surpass 100,000 new infections per day if the outbreak continues on its current trend, White House health adviser Dr. Anthony Fauci said Tuesday.

“I can’t make an accurate prediction but it’s going to be very disturbing,” Fauci told senators in a hearing held by the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee.
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rb

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #6556 on: June 30, 2020, 01:56:47 PM »
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/30/fauci-says-us-coronavirus-outbreak-is-going-to-be-very-disturbing-could-top-100000-cases-a-day.html

Quote
The U.S. is “not in total control” of the coronavirus pandemic and daily new cases could surpass 100,000 new infections per day if the outbreak continues on its current trend, White House health adviser Dr. Anthony Fauci said Tuesday.

“I can’t make an accurate prediction but it’s going to be very disturbing,” Fauci told senators in a hearing held by the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee.
Wow! It is so shocking to see someone with integrity these days. Can you imagine the pressure this guy is under to keep his mouth shut? He DOES NOT GIVE A FUCK!

Dalal.Holdings

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #6557 on: June 30, 2020, 04:38:56 PM »
Another useless graph (not included--the southern states of FL & AL which do not disclose covid hospitalizations):



And here's AZ, one of the earliest movers of this wave (and where our President held an indoor rally one week ago and declared that the U.S. was at "the end of the pandemic."):



Disclaimer: not proprietary, but publicly available at: https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/1278089978061283329?s=20
« Last Edit: June 30, 2020, 04:49:49 PM by Dalal.Holdings »
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Liberty

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #6558 on: July 01, 2020, 07:18:39 AM »
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/30/fauci-says-us-coronavirus-outbreak-is-going-to-be-very-disturbing-could-top-100000-cases-a-day.html

Quote
The U.S. is “not in total control” of the coronavirus pandemic and daily new cases could surpass 100,000 new infections per day if the outbreak continues on its current trend, White House health adviser Dr. Anthony Fauci said Tuesday.

“I can’t make an accurate prediction but it’s going to be very disturbing,” Fauci told senators in a hearing held by the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee.
Wow! It is so shocking to see someone with integrity these days. Can you imagine the pressure this guy is under to keep his mouth shut? He DOES NOT GIVE A FUCK!

People like Fauci are stuck in such a dilemma (almost everybody competent in this administration was in the same position... Tillerson, Mattis, Kelly.. )... They all think "well, I can do more good on the inside than if I'm fired", so they kind of try to walk on eggs and navigate some balance between pleasing Trump and actually doing their jobs.

Which isn't what you want in a crisis where people are losing their lives. You want to let your top guy actually do his job and enable him to be effective, rather than sideline him and contradict him all the time, not allow him to use all the tools, and use him as a prop in some reality show where you have to have all the spotlight on yourself and tell him what he can and can't say and whether he can do interviews or testify to congress...

Count the days until Trump blames all this on Fauci... *sigh*

Meanwhile, common sense looks like this: https://twitter.com/jeneps/status/1278008568717991936?s=20

Quote
One of the first calls Biden would make after being elected would be to Dr. Fauci asking him to stay on. He'd be given Oval Office access and "an uncensored platform to speak directly to the American people -- whether delivering good news or bad."
« Last Edit: July 01, 2020, 10:32:54 AM by Liberty »
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Dalal.Holdings

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #6559 on: July 01, 2020, 10:56:57 AM »
Fauci’s name dragging through the mud will continue. Like Mattis, Sessions, Bolton, Tillerson, and too many others to name.

What do you expect with an administration run with mob mentality? A physician who has been a public servant for almost 40 years, but who cares about any of that if you dare not sing the song of senor bone spurs (who declared the pandemic nearly over one week ago)?

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1278153797093621760?s=20

Quote
Ingraham: Now at this point, can we all just admit that Fauci is basically working for the Biden campaign

The viewers of the Laura Ingraham show must be critical thinking savants.

Yeah, you want us to leave politics out of this, but how is that possible when this administration and its supporters politicize Fauci and his updates on the pandemic which are scientific/objective?
« Last Edit: July 01, 2020, 10:59:32 AM by Dalal.Holdings »
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