Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 913188 times)

KCLarkin

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #7880 on: October 15, 2020, 10:13:32 AM »
Interesting. Lets go back and read Feb/March/April again...when people where trying to have investment related discussions and the covid experts drowned everything out crying about Trump....

I looked. And there is almost no criticism of Trump in Feb/March. He is the President of the United States. He's going to get criticism (even if he did everything right). But blatant Trump-bashing was exceptionally rare on this thread. My guess is that you are recalling conversations from other threads.
« Last Edit: October 15, 2020, 10:21:40 AM by KCLarkin »


StubbleJumper

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #7881 on: October 15, 2020, 11:08:47 AM »
Interesting. Lets go back and read Feb/March/April again...when people where trying to have investment related discussions and the covid experts drowned everything out crying about Trump....

I looked. And there is almost no criticism of Trump in Feb/March. He is the President of the United States. He's going to get criticism (even if he did everything right). But blatant Trump-bashing was exceptionally rare on this thread. My guess is that you are recalling conversations from other threads.


I'd say that you are correct about Feb/March.  The discussions in Feb/March had already frequently become contentious, with a few posters directing personal attacks and insults at others who held different points of view.   At that stage, the personal attacks were usually of the nature of questioning the other person's intelligence or numeracy (ex, person X is too stupid to understand exponential growth).  The reality was that there were intelligent and numerate posters on both sides of most issues, but their views were driven by differing assumptions about a wide variety of known-unknowns.

My memory was that the political rancour was a little later in June or July, when most of Europe and Canada had their situation well in hand after a lengthy lock-down, but Sweden and the US had a growing mess on their hands.  At that stage there were frequent posts lamenting the situation in the US and frequent questions about whether America was great yet and #winning was occasionally used.  It was a bizarrely political discourse where every bad outcome was attributed to particular politicians.

The venomous political statements related to the covid situation in the US seem to have abated somewhat as numerous countries in Europe have lost control of their situation.


SJ

Spekulatius

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #7882 on: October 15, 2020, 07:16:29 PM »
Interesting. Lets go back and read Feb/March/April again...when people where trying to have investment related discussions and the covid experts drowned everything out crying about Trump....

I looked. And there is almost no criticism of Trump in Feb/March. He is the President of the United States. He's going to get criticism (even if he did everything right). But blatant Trump-bashing was exceptionally rare on this thread. My guess is that you are recalling conversations from other threads.


I'd say that you are correct about Feb/March.  The discussions in Feb/March had already frequently become contentious, with a few posters directing personal attacks and insults at others who held different points of view.   At that stage, the personal attacks were usually of the nature of questioning the other person's intelligence or numeracy (ex, person X is too stupid to understand exponential growth).  The reality was that there were intelligent and numerate posters on both sides of most issues, but their views were driven by differing assumptions about a wide variety of known-unknowns.

My memory was that the political rancour was a little later in June or July, when most of Europe and Canada had their situation well in hand after a lengthy lock-down, but Sweden and the US had a growing mess on their hands.  At that stage there were frequent posts lamenting the situation in the US and frequent questions about whether America was great yet and #winning was occasionally used.  It was a bizarrely political discourse where every bad outcome was attributed to particular politicians.

The venomous political statements related to the covid situation in the US seem to have abated somewhat as numerous countries in Europe have lost control of their situation.


SJ

The trends in Europe show how quickly this can run out of control. 40k cases today in France is pretty bad. They have started curfews , but this time, they are more targeted towards hoy spots. I think a total lockdown of the economy is unlikely in Europe as it is in the US.

US trends are pretty lousy too - rising cases almost everywhere, but thatís not driving the response - hospitalization is and itís rising too. These COVID-19 trends have persistence, once they start rising, they keep rising for a while:
https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-currently-hospitalized

These hospitalization rates at a local level will drive a response at a local level.

We will find out if muscleman herd immunity theory is correct, but I think not. Too many population groups havenít seen the virus yet. I live in MA ~35 miles out of Boston and no way there is any herd immunity here. Just 10 positive cases in a town of 3300 with no case since May (we have town stats here and testing a availability is pretty good). Other towns around me are similar , but there are also hot spots in between (mostly blue collar communities) with way higher rates too.

I expect rising rates and hospitalizations, but hope for the best. Thanksgiving and inevitable travel and family gathering could well ignite another surge. We know from Europe that family events and private meetings/house parties are a major cause of spread and those are hard to control.

Life is too short for cheap beer and wine.

Cigarbutt

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #7883 on: October 15, 2020, 08:44:29 PM »
....and now the thread is quiet.
The thread is quiet because whenever someone tries to have an intelligent conversation, the MAGA-trolls post gibberish and nonsense to try to drown out any rational thought.
Maybe there is a need for a third definition of Coronavirus fatigue. On top of the fatigue that the virus may cause, there's the fatigue resulting from chronic or recurrent social restrictions and there is the fatigue related to attempts to engage in constructive discussions.

StubbleJumper

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #7884 on: October 15, 2020, 08:45:37 PM »
Quote
We will find out if muscleman herd immunity theory is correct, but I think not. Too many population groups havenít seen the virus yet. I live in MA ~35 miles out of Boston and no way there is any herd immunity here. Just 10 positive cases in a town of 3300 with no case since May (we have town stats here and testing a availability is pretty good). Other towns around me are similar , but there are also hot spots in between (mostly blue collar communities) with way higher rates too.

I don't want to put words in Muscleman's mouth, but some of us were dreaming that herd immunity might kick in at ~25% of the population with antibodies, but it is pretty clear that was a pipe dream.  As of today, there are 8 million officially diagnosed cases in the United States.  If you believe the dialysis study, the number of people carrying antibodies is about 10-for-1 of the official cases, or perhaps 80 million.  That would be 24 or 25 percent of the US population.  Clearly, we are not anywhere close to herd immunity today.

Conventional wisdom is that herd immunity might kick in when ~60% of the population is resistant. So the US might currently be at ~40% of that path?  Ignoring the notion that R0 will gradually tail off as people are infected, another ~12m official cases would be required.  At ~50k new cases per day that would be 8 more months, but the tailing of the R0 would likely extend that for a great deal longer.  So, I will pose the question once more: which will come first in the US, a generally available vaccine, or generalized herd immunity?

Quote
The trends in Europe show how quickly this can run out of control. 40k cases today in France is pretty bad. They have started curfews , but this time, they are more targeted towards hoy spots. I think a total lockdown of the economy is unlikely in Europe as it is in the US.

The numbers in France are astounding.  I don't pay much attention to the day-to-day counts because there is a great deal of daily noise.  But, the 7-day average in France is 20k new cases per day for a population of 67 million people.  Multiply by about 5 to get a number comparable to the US population, and it gives you 100k/day, which is even worse than the worst days that the US experienced in July (the worst day for the US was 76k new cases).  The Netherlands seems to have an even worse mess on its hands than France.

Quote
I expect rising rates and hospitalizations, but hope for the best. Thanksgiving and inevitable travel and family gathering could well ignite another surge. We know from Europe that family events and private meetings/house parties are a major cause of spread and those are hard to control.

I agree fully with your observation about Thanksgiving.  In Canada, we celebrated Thanksgiving last Sunday (we celebrate it earlier than in the US) and we will likely see the covid results of the family get-togethers early next week.  Our second largest province took the extraordinary measure of prohibiting visitors to houses in almost all of the province.  What an extraordinary time it is that a government in a free society would deign to prohibit people from having any visitors at all in their house!  But, they did it, and we might see next week whether it made a difference.  Let us hope that the impingement on personal freedom at least had a useful public health outcome.

While Thanksgiving is an important holiday in Canada, it is much, much more important in the US...maybe even more important than Christmas.  It is the biggest travel day of the year.  The first week of December could be interesting....


SJ

Cardboard

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #7885 on: October 16, 2020, 01:45:16 AM »
Every 100 years or so, some pandemia comes along.

Last time we were around 1.8 billion and it killed 3-5%, not infected. Today we are 7.8 billion.

To the endless worriers of this thread let me tell you that you are wrong. Some will die from this, with over 90% due to pre-existing conditions based on data and vast majority will make it through.

Will I? Cannot tell. I won't try to catch it but, if you think that you will improve overall human condition by prolonging the agony then you are very wrong.

Cardboard

Investor20

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #7886 on: October 16, 2020, 04:31:02 AM »


CDC is showing drop in new hospitalizations as of October 3, especially the 65+ years which is most important group from vulnerability POV.



Percent hospital & emergency visits for both Covid like (CLI) & Influenza like (ILI) are down to baseline



This is a summary of Positivity rate, new hospitalizations, Hospital visits...all down

cwericb

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #7887 on: October 16, 2020, 06:42:42 AM »
Interesting. Lets go back and read Feb/March/April again...when people where trying to have investment related discussions and the covid experts drowned everything out crying about Trump....

I looked. And there is almost no criticism of Trump in Feb/March. He is the President of the United States. He's going to get criticism (even if he did everything right). But blatant Trump-bashing was exceptionally rare on this thread. My guess is that you are recalling conversations from other threads.

No need to bash Trump, the man is fully capable of speaking for himself this subject:

ďJust the other day, they came out with a statement that 85% of the people that wear masks catch itĒ

ďA lot of people say masks are not good, Iíll tell you who those people are, waiters.Ē 

"If we stop testing right now, we'd have very few cases, if any'
Politicians and diapers must be changed often, and for the same reason. - Mark Twain

Gregmal

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #7888 on: October 16, 2020, 07:34:01 AM »
Interesting. Lets go back and read Feb/March/April again...when people where trying to have investment related discussions and the covid experts drowned everything out crying about Trump....

I looked. And there is almost no criticism of Trump in Feb/March. He is the President of the United States. He's going to get criticism (even if he did everything right). But blatant Trump-bashing was exceptionally rare on this thread. My guess is that you are recalling conversations from other threads.

No need to bash Trump, the man is fully capable of speaking for himself this subject:

ďJust the other day, they came out with a statement that 85% of the people that wear masks catch itĒ

ďA lot of people say masks are not good, Iíll tell you who those people are, waiters.Ē 

"If we stop testing right now, we'd have very few cases, if any'

When the overwhelming majority of people who test positive dont even know they have it or experience symptoms in line with seasonal allergies....then yea, it gets to a point where creating boogeymen isn't really productive. Especially when all those nothing burgers get translated into "OMG look at all the people testing positive!" across newsfeeds everywhere. A lot of people had breakfast this morning. Some didnt. Some might have choked on their food and experienced discomfort....But we dont attach negative superpowers to breakfast, nor do many people scream "AGH!" when they hear/see the word.

Investor20

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #7889 on: October 16, 2020, 07:37:37 AM »
Interesting. Lets go back and read Feb/March/April again...when people where trying to have investment related discussions and the covid experts drowned everything out crying about Trump....

I looked. And there is almost no criticism of Trump in Feb/March. He is the President of the United States. He's going to get criticism (even if he did everything right). But blatant Trump-bashing was exceptionally rare on this thread. My guess is that you are recalling conversations from other threads.

No need to bash Trump, the man is fully capable of speaking for himself this subject:

ďJust the other day, they came out with a statement that 85% of the people that wear masks catch itĒ

ďA lot of people say masks are not good, Iíll tell you who those people are, waiters.Ē 

"If we stop testing right now, we'd have very few cases, if any'

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/pdfs/mm6936a5-H.pdf

Please check page 1261 - table at top of page  for

"Reported use of cloth face covering or mask 14 days before illness onset"

Mask use for Covid Positive group:       Often: 14.4%; Always 70.6%  (Total of Often + Always use of mask 85%)
Mask use for control (negative) group: Often: 14.5%; Always 74.2%  (Total of Often + Always use of mask 88.7%)