Author Topic: Cryptocurrencies  (Read 345900 times)

SharperDingaan

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Re: Cryptocurrencies
« Reply #1180 on: January 20, 2021, 06:22:15 AM »
The Tethers of the world exist because their client base 1) cannot stand the scrutiny of regulation, and 2) much of the client base is investment ignorant. When the client base prefers to NOT comply with standard KYC restrictions, it's not a good sign.

At some point the Tethers will implode, probably with a little 'help' from the light side. Similarly much of the stable coin market will as well, when sponsors can no longer meet their margin calls - and their sh1te coin collateral is sold off en-mass. When? is anybody's guess, but it is a reasonable expectation. Why stable coin? the mechanics are very similar to a CDO^2. Last time around, a number of prominent I-Banks found out that liquidity is a bitch - when it suddenly evaporates :)

It does not mean that BTC collapses, but it does mean that the derivative players make a great deal of money on the way down, and proven global establishment of 'crypto' as an investment 'asset class'. The wheel rolls, the 'dark side' gets shaken out, and BTC remains alive and well.

SD


Fat Pitch

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Re: Cryptocurrencies
« Reply #1181 on: January 20, 2021, 09:49:28 AM »
No one will care about Tethers or any stable coin when the market finally decides to back an algorithmic stable coin.

The Tethers of the world exist because their client base 1) cannot stand the scrutiny of regulation, and 2) much of the client base is investment ignorant. When the client base prefers to NOT comply with standard KYC restrictions, it's not a good sign.

At some point the Tethers will implode, probably with a little 'help' from the light side. Similarly much of the stable coin market will as well, when sponsors can no longer meet their margin calls - and their sh1te coin collateral is sold off en-mass. When? is anybody's guess, but it is a reasonable expectation. Why stable coin? the mechanics are very similar to a CDO^2. Last time around, a number of prominent I-Banks found out that liquidity is a bitch - when it suddenly evaporates :)

It does not mean that BTC collapses, but it does mean that the derivative players make a great deal of money on the way down, and proven global establishment of 'crypto' as an investment 'asset class'. The wheel rolls, the 'dark side' gets shaken out, and BTC remains alive and well.

SD
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Fly

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Re: Cryptocurrencies
« Reply #1182 on: January 20, 2021, 10:54:03 AM »
No one will care about Tethers or any stable coin when the market finally decides to back an algorithmic stable coin.


I do think this is the future, but have just glanced briefly at the algo stablecoins. Any recs for leaders so far?

Fat Pitch

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Re: Cryptocurrencies
« Reply #1183 on: January 20, 2021, 11:26:55 AM »
Too early to tell, but the most legit project at the moment is ESD. Incentives are being modified for a v2 to come out soon.

No one will care about Tethers or any stable coin when the market finally decides to back an algorithmic stable coin.


I do think this is the future, but have just glanced briefly at the algo stablecoins. Any recs for leaders so far?
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Fly

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Re: Cryptocurrencies
« Reply #1184 on: January 20, 2021, 11:28:49 AM »
Too early to tell, but the most legit project at the moment is ESD. Incentives are being modified for a v2 to come out soon.

No one will care about Tethers or any stable coin when the market finally decides to back an algorithmic stable coin.


I do think this is the future, but have just glanced briefly at the algo stablecoins. Any recs for leaders so far?

Yes, ESDv2 and Frax were two I had been most interested in

elliott

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Re: Cryptocurrencies
« Reply #1185 on: January 25, 2021, 07:52:18 AM »
are Polkadot, Chainlink, Cardano... competitors of both Bitcoin and Ethereum, or just of Ethereum?

I ask because these coins are often said to have the same, or more, features than Ethereum, but with better technology, while Bitcoin is already accepted to have less features than even Ethereum. of course, this doesnt make them friends of Bitcoin, but, at least to my eyes, does make Ethereum their main rival.

those points are arguable, and many will say even totally wrong. I am not asking about whether they are true or not, I just mention them as point of departure, because I think they represent a very widely held view. if you dont agree with that, though, please say so. discussing about what we speculate most people think may also prove useful.

thanks.
« Last Edit: January 25, 2021, 07:55:59 AM by elliott »

rkbabang

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Re: Cryptocurrencies
« Reply #1186 on: January 25, 2021, 09:43:19 AM »
are Polkadot, Chainlink, Cardano... competitors of both Bitcoin and Ethereum, or just of Ethereum?

I ask because these coins are often said to have the same, or more, features than Ethereum, but with better technology, while Bitcoin is already accepted to have less features than even Ethereum. of course, this doesnt make them friends of Bitcoin, but, at least to my eyes, does make Ethereum their main rival.

those points are arguable, and many will say even totally wrong. I am not asking about whether they are true or not, I just mention them as point of departure, because I think they represent a very widely held view. if you dont agree with that, though, please say so. discussing about what we speculate most people think may also prove useful.

thanks.

I think of those as more similar to Ethereum than Bitcoin, as you said.  I think we will see Bitcoin as an institutional store of value where Ethereum, et al, will be used for all kinds of things, but value will come in to be used then go back out to be stored.  I think there is room for more than one Turing complete blockchain, they will compete on functionality, stability, ease of use, etc.   Ethereum will likely be one of the winners just because of first mover advantage, a large userbase, and being good enough for most applications.

TwoCitiesCapital

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Re: Cryptocurrencies
« Reply #1187 on: January 27, 2021, 07:23:59 AM »
The premium on GBTC surpassed 35% early this morning. 30-35% has signalled short-term tops in sentiment in recent months, but that doesn't mean it couldn't go higher in a frenzy like 2017 OR that you'd lose money buying it today if BTC keeps on keeping on.

Just the first indicator I watch for overly bullish sentiment. I noted back around ~18k that even after the 80% rally we'd seen, that its NAV was still within reasonable bounds of recent history and not bubbly - now we're getting there.

Mayer multiple is 1.88 (multiple to 200 day moving average). 2.4 is the typical sell signal in a euphoric rise - though it has gone much higher (like 3x+ in 2017) before they bust. Keeping in mind that the 200 day moving average is rising every day, 2.4x sell signal will likely be triggered around ~30-35k if it happens in the next 2-3 months.

It's better for all of us if it takes its sweet time in getting there though - makes the stock to flow forecast of 100k by the end of 2021 a more reasonable topping point if the 200 DMA is given time to rise to 25-30k instead of trying to make it there when its currently at 12k.

Happy trading all

This post was made when BTC was around 23k. Obvioulsy BTC topped out at 41k following GBTC premium exploding to 40% (sell signal above 25%) and the Mayer multiple topping at 2.9x (sell signal @ 2.4x).

Obviously this went significantly higher than the "reasonable" top by these technical indicators, but basically pointed to late December being the time to sell.

Now? GBTC premium is single digits (buy signal) and Mayer multiple is back to being 1.8x where it was when I posted on December 17th. First time it's been below 2x since that time as well. Obviously, BTC can undershoot to the downside like it overshot to the upside, but this is probably the first time since mid-December where the technicals start supporting accumulating again. Particularly if you believe that this is just a pit-stop on the way to a larger rally like we saw happen multiple times in 2017

Jurgis

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Re: Cryptocurrencies
« Reply #1188 on: January 27, 2021, 08:37:17 AM »
Has anyone bought GBTC in IRA?
How sure are you that GBTC is legal in IRA and does not have unexpected tax consequences? (E.g. things like MLPs can screw you in IRA).

I know that Fido asks for additional agreement before they allow you to buy GBTC.
I believe that GBTC sucks in taxable account although I don't remember exact details.

Anyway, does anyone has a strong handle of tax implications of GBTC in IRA?
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TwoCitiesCapital

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Re: Cryptocurrencies
« Reply #1189 on: January 27, 2021, 08:56:17 AM »
Has anyone bought GBTC in IRA?
How sure are you that GBTC is legal in IRA and does not have unexpected tax consequences? (E.g. things like MLPs can screw you in IRA).

I know that Fido asks for additional agreement before they allow you to buy GBTC.
I believe that GBTC sucks in taxable account although I don't remember exact details.

Anyway, does anyone has a strong handle of tax implications of GBTC in IRA?

I own GBTC in an IRA at Schwab and didn't have to sign any additional agreements. Given that GBTC doesn't have any distributions associated with it, I don't think you'll encounter similar taxable issues as owning MLPs in an IRA. It's my understanding it's just a publicly traded trust more akin to REITs than ETFs/stocks/MLPs/etc.