Cryptocurrencies

[Castanza]

BTC now has a market cap over $1T

At $53, isn't the BTC market cap around $700B as I seem to remember that accounting for lost and unmined total count was closer to 14M?

Or is that way off?

No one knows for sure how many coins are lost (including millions of bitcoins presumably owned by Satoshi Nakamoto), so the market cap is calculated based on the only number which is known for sure: the number of mined bitcoins.  So yes the real market cap is somewhat less, but no one knows how much less.  I know there have been people who have looked at the number of coins which has not moved in X numbers of years, but that doesn't mean anything as a lot of people are holding.  Most of my coins haven't been moved since 2014, but they are not lost.  There is really no way to ever know for sure which coins are lost and which are being intentionally held.

How much do you own? 

[Liberty]

How much do you own? 

He's a billionaire, clearly.

[Castanza]

How much do you own? 

He's a billionaire, clearly.

“Most of my coins”

Implying at least three. If so congrats rk

[rkbabang]

How much do you own? 

He's a billionaire, clearly.

“Most of my coins”

Implying at least three. If so congrats rk

Yes more than three, but much less than a billion dollars worth.  I was buying at $200-$500 and not buying more than I did is by far the biggest mistake of my life.

[ValueArb]

How much do you own? 

He's a billionaire, clearly.

“Most of my coins”

Implying at least three. If so congrats rk

Yes more than three, but much less than a billion dollars worth.  I was buying at $200-$500 and not buying more than I did is by far the biggest mistake of my life.

LOL I sold at $250 while simultaneously telling my friend that BTC had an innate value as a medium of exchange, especially in places like Venezuela, but as a value investor I couldn't calculate it so I wouldn't hold it. If I had only followed through building that mental model it would have been clear that world-wide the need for cryptocurrency in a $100T+ economy was a lot more than $500M. 

I mean even today I think that $1T isn't absurd, if it was $100B I'd probably get right back in. Which I could have not that many months ago.

[ValueArb]

Market volume across the six largest exchanges is $50 to $70B a day. There is probably more on the OTC but that is unknown. Lets go with the lower end and say you wanted your selling pressure to be less than 0.1% of the daily volume to avoid disruptions. That would mean you could probably unload in the ballpark of $50M worth a day and that is being super conservative. As a point of comparison Tesla acquired $1.5B worth of Bitcoins in about a month without rocking the boat which would be about $50M a day.

At that rate you could convert $18.3B a year so about 3 years to unload it all. Of course you aren't going to do that anonymously also if any of those early addresses moved it would cause a massive disruption as they are watched and have been dormant for a decade now.

That being said I am pretty sure "Satoshi" (who may actually be a team of people not an individual) intentionally destroyed those early keys, died taking the keys with him/them, or lost the keys due to some technical issue and/or negligence.

It isn't that most of satoshi's coins are dormant, none of them have moved in over a decade. He did move some (giveaways to anyone who asked) in the first two years but that stopped over a decade ago. Due to a privacy leaking flaw in how the extra-nonce was handled in the earliest bitcoin client we have solid evidence of which blocks were mined by satoshi even after other people started mining and literally none of the coins for those blocks have moved in over a decade. $50B worth of wealth and satoshi had a need to sell/trade/spend even 0.001% of that on anything in over a decade? Nobody can definitively prove it but I believe those keys to access those early coins are gone.

Interesting post on ArsTechnica BTC hits $1T story comments. “Satoshi Nakamoto” Has 1M Bitcoin .

[ValueArb]

Musk says BTC price seems high, less than two weeks after buying $1.5B worth?

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/20/elon-musk-says-bitcoin-seems-high-after-surpassing-1-trillion-market-cap.html

[rkbabang]

Musk says BTC price seems high, less than two weeks after buying $1.5B worth?

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/20/elon-musk-says-bitcoin-seems-high-after-surpassing-1-trillion-market-cap.html

He obviously wants to buy more

[Simba]

Musk says BTC price seems high, less than two weeks after buying $1.5B worth?

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/20/elon-musk-says-bitcoin-seems-high-after-surpassing-1-trillion-market-cap.html

Didn’t Elon Musk say Tesla price was too high at one point too?

[adesigar]

How much do you own? 

He's a billionaire, clearly.

“Most of my coins”

Implying at least three. If so congrats rk

Yes more than three, but much less than a billion dollars worth.  I was buying at $200-$500 and not buying more than I did is by far the biggest mistake of my life.

At least you did buy some. I saw it when it was around $10 but didn’t buy any because new kid, death in the family etc. It was a crazy time. I almost bought $5k worth at that time but didn’t. I probably wouldn’t have held to $50k per Bitcoin anyways.