Author Topic: Cryptocurrencies  (Read 289307 times)

TwoCitiesCapital

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Re: Cryptocurrencies
« Reply #980 on: November 05, 2020, 05:02:45 PM »
When does the mania start?

I use the premium on GBTC to measure sentiment - when it's below 15%, sentiment is typically terrible and the Bitcoin pricing is declining. When it's 25+%, sentiment is euphoric and the price is rising. Pretty easy to swing trade this (premium was @ just 7% a month ago and is closer to 22-23% today near the close and have successfully done this 3x times now this calendar year).

That being said, we're still not in euphoric 25+% premiums to NAV despite the 50% rise which is surprising to me. Is this a flawed measure of sentiment OR is 50% in a single month so underwhelming relative to expectations that it doesn't yet deserve the NAV premium? Or something else I'm missing?

Another piece of anecdotal evidence - at these prices in 2017, every single one of my finance friends were following it, trading it (and shit coins), and talking about driving lambos to work. This time around? Not a freaking peep!


Gregmal

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Re: Cryptocurrencies
« Reply #981 on: November 05, 2020, 05:09:29 PM »
Ive made a few minor sells(like 1-2%) of my position around $15k. Nothing other than heeding the big move and recalling that when this goes, it rips hard but typically does retreat a little while later on large(20%+) price movements. That said, I really think this is just getting started longer term. I said it years ago but its a very rare instance where retail beat Wall Street to the punch. 2018 is where retail shook out and passed the baton to the institutions. Slowly this is now becoming mainstream. Who knows where it goes anymore than one knows where gold is going. But hey, thats the fun part.

Lance

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Re: Cryptocurrencies
« Reply #982 on: November 05, 2020, 05:50:34 PM »
Gregmal, how do you think about sizing your position? 

Thanks
Lance

Gregmal

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Re: Cryptocurrencies
« Reply #983 on: November 05, 2020, 11:23:07 PM »
Honestly...I didnt/dont consider it at all.

This kind of piqued my interest during the big run up in 2013. I looked into it. Digital money, why not, right? It made sense on a very connect the dots kind of way but I also inherently shared the same views as the Buffetts and Dimons of the world. I decided to chuck a rather irrelevant amount of money at it after the big crash because it shared a lot of the traits that I have seen in very successful investments prior. From there I was a bit of a closet buyer. A thousand here and thousand there, etc. It was hard because this is the type of stuff you look like a fool here, or more importantly to my investors for being an advocate of...but on a certain level it made sense to me. Along the way Ive just made sure to trim the rips and moderately buy the dips. Overall on a cost basis perspective it is maybe 1% of a position. I've recouped my initial investment already and at this point will let about 80% ride regardless and for fucks trade the other 20%.


rkbabang

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Re: Cryptocurrencies
« Reply #984 on: November 06, 2020, 07:35:02 AM »
Honestly...I didnt/dont consider it at all.

This kind of piqued my interest during the big run up in 2013. I looked into it. Digital money, why not, right? It made sense on a very connect the dots kind of way but I also inherently shared the same views as the Buffetts and Dimons of the world. I decided to chuck a rather irrelevant amount of money at it after the big crash because it shared a lot of the traits that I have seen in very successful investments prior. From there I was a bit of a closet buyer. A thousand here and thousand there, etc. It was hard because this is the type of stuff you look like a fool here, or more importantly to my investors for being an advocate of...but on a certain level it made sense to me. Along the way Ive just made sure to trim the rips and moderately buy the dips. Overall on a cost basis perspective it is maybe 1% of a position. I've recouped my initial investment already and at this point will let about 80% ride regardless and for fucks trade the other 20%.

Similar to me.  I looked in to Bitcoin when it was below $1  when people were talking about it on the anarchist boards and the only place to buy it online was mtgox.  I looked into it, but thought that wiring money to mtgox sounded sketchy.  I never did anything until it went up over $1k in 2013 then back down.  By then there was other ways to buy it, so I started buying at under $200 and even got some under $100. I put in about a 2% position back then, then I created a coinbase account and setup a $30 every 2 weeks auto-buy which has been going for all these years through the ups and downs.  I've never sold any at all.  I wish I had wired $5k-$10 to mtgox back when it was around $1 then transferred it to a private wallet.  But oh well, that will be forever the one that got away.  :(

clutch

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Re: Cryptocurrencies
« Reply #985 on: November 06, 2020, 09:19:06 AM »
I have a simple rule right now. Keep 5% of liquid assets in BTC. If my net worth increases, that percentage might drop somewhat (~1%). I just followed Chamath P's reasoning and his recommendation for the allocation.

I don't consider this investment a significant part of my retirement plan. It's more of a hedge. And if things work out perfectly (both traditional assets and BTC appreciate), I will just buy a brand new 911 with the gain from BTC.  ;D

TwoCitiesCapital

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Re: Cryptocurrencies
« Reply #986 on: November 06, 2020, 09:35:16 AM »
I have a simple rule right now. Keep 5% of liquid assets in BTC. If my net worth increases, that percentage might drop somewhat (~1%). I just followed Chamath P's reasoning and his recommendation for the allocation.

I don't consider this investment a significant part of my retirement plan. It's more of a hedge. And if things work out perfectly (both traditional assets and BTC appreciate), I will just buy a brand new 911 with the gain from BTC.  ;D

I've got a 996 to sell you if you're willing to pay me the right price in BTC

 ;D

SharperDingaan

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Re: Cryptocurrencies
« Reply #987 on: November 06, 2020, 10:19:10 AM »
Sadly the reality is that for someone in North America, BTC is just a sh1te investment.
Most cannot margin against it and at today's USD 15,400/BTC - you could buy a lot of materially better quality stock, which both pays a dividend AND is marginable. Bit different if you live somewhere where your fiat currency is devaluing monthly (South America, South Africa, etc), but even then it is NOT an investment - it is just a less risky alternative to holding wads of scarce USD notes.

A young person would be far better off using the USD 15,400 to learn coding instead, and simply contracting out some of their weeknights/weekends to do coding. Pays way better than McDonalds; at USD 25/hr you only need code an average 25-30 hrs/month to make 50%+/yr on your investment. Not that big a big stretch.

SD

gg

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Re: Cryptocurrencies
« Reply #988 on: November 06, 2020, 11:23:40 AM »
Sadly the reality is that for someone in North America, BTC is just a sh1te investment.
Most cannot margin against it and at today's USD 15,400/BTC - you could buy a lot of materially better quality stock, which both pays a dividend AND is marginable. Bit different if you live somewhere where your fiat currency is devaluing monthly (South America, South Africa, etc), but even then it is NOT an investment - it is just a less risky alternative to holding wads of scarce USD notes.

I actually think that your logic is one of the reasons that US investors, to their detriment, will be later to the game than many others around the world. If you live in Argentina, Venezuela, South Africa, Iran, etc... then monetary debasement is not a philosophical issue, and you are probably certainly willing to take small positions in any assets that potentially have the ability to hedge that risk.

A young person would be far better off using the USD 15,400 to learn coding instead, and simply contracting out some of their weeknights/weekends to do coding. Pays way better than McDonalds; at USD 25/hr you only need code an average 25-30 hrs/month to make 50%+/yr on your investment. Not that big a big stretch.

On this point, there is nothing that says you need to buy 1 bitcoin at a minimum. You can buy very tiny fractions worth of one bitcoin. And I think while that's already been happening, the introduction of bitcoin purchases on highly mainstream financial companies like Paypal and Square will only make this more common place. So I would agree that if a young person only had 15,400 of dsicretionary spending this year, they'd be better off learning to code than they would be buying a bitcoin. But they might be best off spending 15,000 learning to code and buying 400 in bitcoin.

rkbabang

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Re: Cryptocurrencies
« Reply #989 on: November 06, 2020, 12:32:37 PM »
A young person would be far better off using the USD 15,400 to learn coding instead, and simply contracting out some of their weeknights/weekends to do coding. Pays way better than McDonalds; at USD 25/hr you only need code an average 25-30 hrs/month to make 50%+/yr on your investment. Not that big a big stretch.

This may be true, but I'm not a young person (most on this board aren't).  I already know how to code.  This advice can be given to someone thinking of investing in anything.  If you are a young person, invest in acquiring skills first and foremost, but this is an investment board not a career advice board for young people.
« Last Edit: November 06, 2020, 12:34:29 PM by rkbabang »