Author Topic: Cryptocurrencies  (Read 289352 times)

clutch

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Re: Cryptocurrencies
« Reply #990 on: November 06, 2020, 12:45:14 PM »
A young person would be far better off using the USD 15,400 to learn coding instead, and simply contracting out some of their weeknights/weekends to do coding. Pays way better than McDonalds; at USD 25/hr you only need code an average 25-30 hrs/month to make 50%+/yr on your investment. Not that big a big stretch.

This may be true, but I'm not a young person (most on this board aren't).  I already know how to code.  This advice can be given to someone thinking of investing in anything.  If you are a young person, invest in acquiring skills first and foremost, but this is an investment board not a career advice board for young people.

Yup that was an empty statement. A young person would be far better off using the USD 15,400 to learn coding instead of buying anything else.


SharperDingaan

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Re: Cryptocurrencies
« Reply #991 on: November 06, 2020, 05:36:39 PM »
Whether the investment $ is spent learning coding, buying satoshi, or buying something else; the financial metric is the same - risk adjusted internal rate of return. A person invests in their highest IRR investments first, then goes down the list. To a young person interested in crypto, learning how to code will most likely be the better investment. If you are ancient, or already know how to code, your highest IRR opportunities have already been used up!

The real value of Bitcoin is its utility as an anonymous mobile alternative to gold and hard currency (USD, Euro, etc). That ability to reliably and quickly move unlimited sums around inflation, capital controls, and corrupt regimes is incredibly valuable. The underworld involvement also keeps it relatively honest - as they collectively have the most to use. North Americans just do not get that.

SD


 

Investmentacct

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Re: Cryptocurrencies
« Reply #992 on: November 06, 2020, 10:26:23 PM »
A young person would be far better off using the USD 15,400 to learn coding instead, and simply contracting out some of their weeknights/weekends to do coding. Pays way better than McDonalds; at USD 25/hr you only need code an average 25-30 hrs/month to make 50%+/yr on your investment. Not that big a big stretch.

This may be true, but I'm not a young person (most on this board aren't).  I already know how to code.  This advice can be given to someone thinking of investing in anything.  If you are a young person, invest in acquiring skills first and foremost, but this is an investment board not a career advice board for young people.

Yup that was an empty statement. A young person would be far better off using the USD 15,400 to learn coding instead of buying anything else.
If same young person would able to learn to code from YouTube/Twitter/Coursera universities and get a working job , still would able to save USD 15,400 and putting money in BTC would secure future as BTC’s (287Bln) asymmetric payoffs continue for sometime to match market caps of other asset types.

Fly

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Re: Cryptocurrencies
« Reply #993 on: November 07, 2020, 06:04:58 AM »

Gregmal

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Chris

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Re: Cryptocurrencies
« Reply #995 on: November 27, 2020, 01:04:31 PM »
Can you guys explain what Michael J Saylor means here with the incorrectness of the CPI in more detail?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TLzloC1HvFk

I don't really buy the idea that you have to discount every cashflow by 15 or 20 percent. Maybe I don't understand it, but I don't think a lot of big moat businesses face inflationary risk.
Also, I don't think the real inflation is 20%. What about real estate or commodity business that are irreplaceable?

I don't get this premise at all. Does he really think we all get 20% poorer each year in real terms buying power? Please enlighten me guys  :D

SharperDingaan

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Re: Cryptocurrencies
« Reply #996 on: November 27, 2020, 02:14:13 PM »
He's twisting interpretation to justify his BTC investment, and make it NOT look like the punt it is. One can be pretty sure that he got the long BTC at a deep discount (25-35%), and used some of the 'saving' to hedge it with with put options and futures. As long as the asset (BTC) is volatile, and MTM settlement is guaranteed, he does well. The why he's in BTC.

The inflation rant is an exaggeration. CPI is the best measure we have, and it is easy to adjust - the rich man's basket of goods is also very different to the poor man's. If you day-trade all day, including changes in the value of your assets AND your liabilities is valid, but you aren't main street. CPI is a measure of MAIN STREET inflation, not rich man inflation.

At 4B invested, the 30% liquidity discount is roughly 1.7B. Deduct 100M to set up option/futures hedges, and even a monkey should well. Smart investment; but it really says that a big player in the BTC space is trying to get out, and is trying to create liquidity events to do it. BTC didn't just run up to 19K/BTC by itself!

30%? Typical collateralization requirements on stable-coin are 130-150%.
More collateral for a larger exchange, stop-loss starts at a higher collateralization rate. MORE volatility.
Good for everyone ;D

SD
« Last Edit: November 27, 2020, 02:18:19 PM by SharperDingaan »

Gregmal

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Re: Cryptocurrencies
« Reply #997 on: November 30, 2020, 01:12:34 PM »
all time high today

thowed

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Re: Cryptocurrencies
« Reply #998 on: December 01, 2020, 03:29:26 AM »
Gregmal - Cheers for the Druckenmiller info, which I'd missed.

Some of the Bitcoin fanatics have overegged what he said, of course, but he makes some typically wise remarks about the relative timelines of the 'brands' of both Gold and Bitcoin.


SharperDingaan

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Re: Cryptocurrencies
« Reply #999 on: December 01, 2020, 06:47:24 AM »
Just to throw some numbers out ...

5.7B USD/17,500 USD (assumed price.BTC) = 325,000 BTC. And this is just one of a few of these 'elephant' transactions
It is highly unlikely that any one/few parties has this many BTC, unless they were around BEFORE the famous Bitcoin Pizza purchase (10,000 BTC for 2 large pizza). That transaction was May 2010, and we know that Hanyecz accumulated at least 50,000 BTC+ over a lifetime of mining.

If the 325,000 BTC is one of a few transactions from a small group (>50% p(x)), this group was mining in 2009 and prior.
The Satoshi Nakamoto  ;) paper was published in 2008 ....

https://www.cryptoiqtrading.com/the-bitcoin-pizza-guy-actually-spent-50000-bitcoins-on-pizza-over-the-course-of-his-life/
https://www.newsbtc.com/news/bitcoin/bitcoin-pizza-day-anniversary/
https://news.bitcoin.com/satoshi-nakamotos-bitcoin-white-paper-a-12-year-old-summary-of-robust-unstructured-simplicity/

Bitcoin may be anonymous - but it's only if you are doing small transactions.
Good luck to them!

SD
« Last Edit: December 01, 2020, 06:56:06 AM by SharperDingaan »