Author Topic: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?  (Read 175364 times)

Rod

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #370 on: August 22, 2018, 12:06:22 PM »
The Parq complex would be very attractive to various Asian hotel & gaming groups looking to expand their gaming empire from Macau or Hong Kong to North America. Companies such as Galaxy Entertainment, Sands China or Melco Resorts have multi billion market caps and access to financing at much lower costs than the high yield debt that is hobbling Parq at the current time.

With regard to Canada’s hotel sector, it’s experiencing its own boom. Case in point: in early March, Vancouver’s Rosewood Hotel Georgia set a new record in Canada when Hong-Kong-based Able Shine Enterprises and Magnificent Hotel Investments Ltd. purchased the property from Delta Land Development Ltd. for $145 million. It surpassed the Four Seasons Hotel Toronto deal by nabbing the country’s highest recorded price per key at $929,000 per room. Another significant off-shore deal took place late last fall as APA Group of Japan finalized plans to buy Vancouver-based Coast Hotels for $210 million through a share purchase agreement with Okabe Co. Ltd. of Tokyo, bringing the brand’s 36 properties into its stable.

In January, Leadon Investment Inc., a private investor group with ties to Hong Kong, inked a deal to buy British Columbia Investment Management Corporation (bcIMC)’s hospitality arm for more than $1 billion, becoming the new owner of Silver Birch Hotels & Resorts.

“Last year was our peak of interest, because there were a few transactions where foreign groups wanted to buy bulk and have a platform for further expansion in North America, so they’re buying one-off portfolios,” explains McLuskie. They also don’t want to waste time on smaller assets. “The challenge is they don’t want to come here for a $10-million deal. It’s not worth it for such a small transaction, so they’re looking for larger deals where it makes sense to save money and they are looking for key markets and larger site sizes.”


https://www.hoteliermagazine.com/canadas-hotel-market-good-value-foreign-investors/

That's useful info. It's hard to believe they couldn't sell these two hotels for a high price in the current market. If they did they could pay off most of the high cost debt and that might leave them at least in a break-even position on the remainder of the project. Then they could ramp that up over time. Hopefully, they can arrange a sale or equivalent transaction in the next couple months.


gokou3

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #371 on: August 22, 2018, 12:42:10 PM »
Additional research from JLL on Nov 2017:
http://www.jll.ca/canada/en-ca/Research/CAN-Vancouver-Hotel-Market-Report-2017-JLL.pdf

Quote
As one of the highest barriers to entry markets in North America, Vancouver has seen subdued supply growth over the past five
years. With the outstanding lodging fundamentals, development activity has accelerated.   Three new luxury hotels have opened
in the downtown area, including the 147-room Trump Hotel Vancouver, the 329-room JW Marriott Parq Vancouver and the 188-
room Autograph Collection the Douglas, the latter two projects anchor the $600 million Parq Vancouver mega-entertainment
complex. Additionally, the 202-room Exchange Hotel by Executive Hotels & Resorts is under construction and will be located in
the new Exchange Tower. The hotel is set to open in the Summer of 2018. In total, these four new hotels add 866 new rooms to the
Vancouver lodging market.

To offset the new luxury offerings, the 357-room Empire Landmark Hotel and the 199-room Coast Plaza Hotel have closed, with
a total of 556 rooms that have exited the market and will be converted to alternate uses.
The trend of room supply leaving the
market on the low end of the ADR and quality spectrum whilst being replaced by newer luxury five-star hotel product, has recently
been seen in Canadian markets like Toronto. The flight-to-quality in Toronto resulted in a significant ADR push in the upper-
upscale market, with second and third tier hotels following suit, collectively lifting previous rate ceilings in the market.

Over the next few years, muted supply growth is anticipated in Downtown Vancouver, as Smith Travel Research (“STR”) reports
no announced hotels in the development pipeline as of October 2017. As demand continues to soar in Vancouver, the flight-to-
quality shift in the sector remains, coupled with major renovations expected in a number of upper-upscale hotels in the city, it is
anticipated that rates will continue their positive trajectory, with no signs of slowing down in the near term.

gokou3

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LesPaul

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #373 on: August 23, 2018, 12:34:32 PM »
Through it's holding in Union Group, Dundee indirectly owns 16M shares of ICC Labs (ICC-X), a Cannabis producer in Uruguay. I think it's worth watching because ICC has recently moved up from $1 to $1.70 as it seems to be catching the cannabis wave. At the current price it's worth about 50 cents per Dundee share, or roughly 20% of the market cap. I guess a best case scenario would be that ICC shoots up to $5 or so on a take over or continuation of the bubble, and Union Group sells. Dundee's share of that value would be about $1.40 per share, more than half the current market cap, a not inconsiderable amount.

Thanks for noticing that and letting us know

A Uruguayan news source has reported that Aurora is in talks to acquire the ICC business. Haven't seen anything from a Canadian source yet.

https://www.busqueda.com.uy/nota/una-empresa-productora-de-la-marihuana-oficial-negocia-su-venta-la-principal-compania-de

No idea of the legitimacy of the article or report, only thought it might be interesting for Dundee followers.

sculpin

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #374 on: August 23, 2018, 12:41:56 PM »
Through it's holding in Union Group, Dundee indirectly owns 16M shares of ICC Labs (ICC-X), a Cannabis producer in Uruguay. I think it's worth watching because ICC has recently moved up from $1 to $1.70 as it seems to be catching the cannabis wave. At the current price it's worth about 50 cents per Dundee share, or roughly 20% of the market cap. I guess a best case scenario would be that ICC shoots up to $5 or so on a take over or continuation of the bubble, and Union Group sells. Dundee's share of that value would be about $1.40 per share, more than half the current market cap, a not inconsiderable amount.

Thanks for noticing that and letting us know

A Uruguayan news source has reported that Aurora is in talks to acquire the ICC business. Haven't seen anything from a Canadian source yet.

https://www.busqueda.com.uy/nota/una-empresa-productora-de-la-marihuana-oficial-negocia-su-venta-la-principal-compania-de

No idea of the legitimacy of the article or report, only thought it might be interesting for Dundee followers.

Thanks the ICC shares are up 17% today on heavy volume...press release from ICC Labs...


ICC Labs notes media report on potential transaction

2018-08-23 15:34 ET - News Release
Shares issued 137,600,910
ICC Close 2018-08-22 C$ 1.49


Mr. Alejandro Antalich reports

ICC RESPONDS TO MEDIA REPORTS

ICC Labs Inc. is aware of a recent Spanish language media report speculating as to a potential transaction involving the acquisition of the company. The policy of the company is not to comment on rumors or speculation in the marketplace or any potential transaction unless, and until, a binding legal agreement to effect that transaction has been signed.

However, in response to a request from the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada, the company confirms that it engages from time to time in discussions with other industry players regarding various alternatives. There can be no assurance that the company will enter into any transaction or take any other corporate action as a result of any such discussions. ICC does not intend to make any further comment on this matter except as may be required by applicable securities laws.

About ICC Labs Inc.

ICC Labs is a fully licensed producer and distributor of medicinal cannabinoid extracts, recreational cannabis and industrial hemp products in Uruguay as well as a fully licensed producer of medicinal cannabis in Colombia. The company has active operations in Uruguay and is focused on becoming the worldwide leading producer of cannabinoid extracts, giving support and promoting responsible use for medicinal purposes, backed by scientific research and innovation, while following strict compliance with standards for quality and safety.

Cardboard

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #375 on: August 24, 2018, 02:23:56 AM »
When everything seems lost that is when things turns.

Who mentioned about this holding recently? I think we mostly had all written it off when we heard about these accounting issues.

I also recall a $100 million valuation for the land alone held by Blue Goose. And Biogen did hit some good success with an Alzheimer drug recently thought to be ineffective. Is TauRX truly worthless?

And there is oil in Chad. How much really in that play to be economic is more the question. I am impressed by how fast Delonex is going after it and how much the oil market has improved from only a year ago. Back then $50 oil was the number, there was uncertainty about concluding the sale and this payment on first oil and royalty looked like a pipe dream 4 or 5 years down the road.

You just start to add a few wins to this portfolio of 70+ holdings and all of a sudden latest prices for the stock and preferreds look absolutely crazy.

Cardboard



Sportgamma

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #376 on: August 24, 2018, 05:01:41 AM »
When everything seems lost that is when things turns.

Who mentioned about this holding recently? I think we mostly had all written it off when we heard about these accounting issues.

I also recall a $100 million valuation for the land alone held by Blue Goose. And Biogen did hit some good success with an Alzheimer drug recently thought to be ineffective. Is TauRX truly worthless?

And there is oil in Chad. How much really in that play to be economic is more the question. I am impressed by how fast Delonex is going after it and how much the oil market has improved from only a year ago. Back then $50 oil was the number, there was uncertainty about concluding the sale and this payment on first oil and royalty looked like a pipe dream 4 or 5 years down the road.

You just start to add a few wins to this portfolio of 70+ holdings and all of a sudden latest prices for the stock and preferreds look absolutely crazy.

Cardboard

This is precisely what I find so appealing with this situation. Not everything has to go right. If some things go right or at least revert back to adequacy this would be a positive outcome.

obtuse_investor

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #377 on: September 04, 2018, 08:13:59 AM »
Interesting development.

Roumell Asset Management submits letter to Board of Directors of Dundee Corporation

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/roumell-asset-management-submits-letter-to-board-of-directors-of-dundee-corporation-300706238.html
Value Investor who manages his personal portfolio with a 25-45 year time horizon | @obtuse_investor

Rod

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #378 on: September 04, 2018, 09:11:43 AM »
Interesting development.

Roumell Asset Management submits letter to Board of Directors of Dundee Corporation

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/roumell-asset-management-submits-letter-to-board-of-directors-of-dundee-corporation-300706238.html

I'm not surprised. Nothing really has gone right in Dundee's restructuring efforts since they sold the oil property to Delonex. I think unless they can sell either Blue Goose or preferably Parq in the next couple of months they will have to pull the trigger on the conversion of the E to shares. They desperately need a win at this point. Conversion would strengthen the balance sheet dramatically and eliminate about $6 million per year in dividend payments.

SafetyinNumbers

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #379 on: September 04, 2018, 10:44:06 AM »
The proposal to offer a discounted extended security to replace the DC.PR.E is a new one that was mentioned on this board before. Obviously any discount would be accretive to NAV and improve the liquidity position which would support the valuation of the DC.PR.B and DC.PR.D.
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