Author Topic: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?  (Read 172604 times)

sculpin

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #650 on: December 26, 2019, 11:05:51 AM »
   
Jim Roumell

Authorís reply Ľ Dundee liquidates Red Leaf for $9.2 million 30% above our estimate of $7 million.

Dundee sells 500K shares of DPM.
finance.yahoo.com/...

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4310589-dundees-dpm-stake-equals-companys-total-enterprise-value-free-option-on-everything-else


petec

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #651 on: January 09, 2020, 06:03:53 AM »
That was Mark Goodman, who took it over after his father Ned Goodman retired.  Ned was brilliant from what I can tell, he built the business and gave shareholders something like 15-16% per year.  I didn't realize there was a second handoff, but you are still with a new management team.

It has been awhile but I was under the impression that Ned built the business up using financial services.  He ultimately sold that business to one of the big banks.  I am okay with the home building as it's a traditional business and you are competing against smaller operators but where is the evidence that they are exceptional resource investors?  Isn't that where they blew up the company?  Seriously, this company has been an incinerator of capital, I would not invest more without really understanding what they are buying and feeling like the odds are tipped towards me.  In the past you had Ned's reputation but what is there now?  $30 -> $1.  My perspective is, prove it and then maybe I think about it.

My understanding is that Ned was brilliant, and then shot himself in the foot buying a lot of crap after the crisis, motivated (I think) by the belief that money printing would lead to runaway inflation.

I am not sure to what extent Mark contributed to that but he certainly started to unwind it. Then he fell ill and Jonathan took over.

I believe Jonathan had an important role in building DPM, which is undeniably a success, and he has made good decisions since taking over Dundee. So I think we are in OK hands and I certainly don't view the fact that Ned is no longer in charge as a negative.

If I am wrong, someone please correct me.
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petec

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #652 on: January 09, 2020, 06:06:00 AM »
   
Jim Roumell

Authorís reply Ľ Dundee liquidates Red Leaf for $9.2 million 30% above our estimate of $7 million.

Dundee sells 500K shares of DPM.
finance.yahoo.com/...

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4310589-dundees-dpm-stake-equals-companys-total-enterprise-value-free-option-on-everything-else

I think this was below BV though.

They also sold $2.5m of DPM, ceasing to be a control person so that DPM has better fundraising options (apparently). They timed this sale beautifully from what I can see.
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sculpin

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #653 on: January 10, 2020, 12:48:03 PM »
FY20 we model FCF of US$136 mln for an impressive 19% FCF yield

January 9, 2020

Dundee Precious Metals Inc.
DPM (TSX): C$5.18
Stock Rating: Outperform
Target: C$8.50

Risk Rating: Above Average

Ada Tepe Supports Solid Operational Q4/19

Ada Tepe FY19 Production at Top End of Guidance Range

Production beat. Q4/19 consolidated gold production of 69.5k oz (NBF 65.2k oz), up 3.9k oz q/q and 7% above our
estimates. Gold sales of 82.1k oz (NBF 80.6k oz) were up 42.5k oz q/q as the Q3/19 sales deficit was resolved, as expected.
Copper production of 10.0 mln lbs (NBF 9.1 mln lbs) was flat q/q. Mine-by-mine highlights include:
● Q4/19 Chelopech production of 43.0k oz (NBF 40.9k oz), up 2.7k oz q/q and modestly above our estimates. FY19 production
of 173.4k oz was in line with the guidance range (155-187k oz).
● Q4/19 Ada Tepe production of 26.5k oz (NBF 24.3k oz), up 1.7k oz q/q, delivering continued solid performance in its second
quarter of commercial production. Positively, FY19 production of 57.2k oz lands near the top end of the guidance range
(45-60k oz).
Measurable FCF on deck. After preliminary updates, our estimates have improved slightly, and we model Q4/19 FCF of
~US$27 mln (vs. Q3/19 of US$10.2 mln), benefiting from higher gold sales and metal prices (~US$1,483/oz in Q4/19 vs.
US$1,461/oz in Q3/19), with offset from commencement of prepaid gold sales (~46.2k oz over 6 qtrs). Our Q4/19 FCF
estimates factor DPM's ~US$7.7 mln investment in INV Metals Inc. (INV: TSX) which closed Oct. 28, 2019. Looking ahead, for
FY20 we model FCF of US$136 mln for an impressive 19% FCF yield.
Maintaining Outperform rating and $8.50 target. Trading at P/NAV 0.68x (peers 0.80x), P/CF20 4.0x (peers 4.5x) and P/
CF21 3.0x (peers 4.0x). Our target is based on 5.0x EV/EBITDA NTM (100%). DPM reports financials after market close on
Feb. 13 with the conference call scheduled for Feb. 14 that 9 AM EST (dial-in: 1-844-264-2104).

Don DeMarco, (416) 869-7572, don.demarco@nbc.ca
Associate: Rabi Nizami, (416) 869-7925, rabi.nizami@nbc.ca
Associate: Harmen Puri, (416) 869-8045, harmen.puri@nbc.ca