Author Topic: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?  (Read 192147 times)

Rod

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #670 on: May 13, 2020, 05:29:41 AM »
Other safer prefs IMO, many of which trade around $10.

May I ask which?

I would suggest Brookfield Office Properties. I own BPO.PR.N

I like them because they are receiving dividends from the core office property segment of Brookfield Property Partners (BPY). This is the safest part of BPY (not retail). And there is no way that dividends will be suspended because BPY canít access the cash flow from itís office properties without first paying the BPO divs. BPY needs that cash to pay its own distribution and support itís retail segment through these hard times.


SafetyinNumbers

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #671 on: May 13, 2020, 05:54:50 AM »
Other safer prefs IMO, many of which trade around $10.

May I ask which?

I would suggest Brookfield Office Properties. I own BPO.PR.N

I like them because they are receiving dividends from the core office property segment of Brookfield Property Partners (BPY). This is the safest part of BPY (not retail). And there is no way that dividends will be suspended because BPY canít access the cash flow from itís office properties without first paying the BPO divs. BPY needs that cash to pay its own distribution and support itís retail segment through these hard times.

I like the prime floaters for credit quality and upside if rates ever go up like BAM.PR.B, BCE.PR.H and TRI.PR.B. I think GMP.PR.B and AZP.PR.C have high yields because investors haven't appreciated the fundamental changes in the respective businesses. We could see some compression in yields over time plus they are rate resets.

sculpin

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #672 on: May 15, 2020, 09:41:13 AM »
M Partners note on DC....

We have a Research Note on Dundee Corporation (DC.A Ė TSX).
 
Dundee Corporation released Q1/20 financial results after market close yesterday. In the quarter, Dundee recorded a net loss of $166.4M ($1.63/share), compared to earnings of $14.9M ($0.21/share) in Q1/19. The majority of the loss was driven by 84%-owned United Hydrocarbon International Corp. (UHIC), which reported a net loss of $117.5M primarily related to a fair value change in royalty interest and associated contingent bonus payments. This makes a minimal impact on our view of the value of Dundee for the following reasons:

The fair value change is largely driven by the steep decline in the price of oil, which could rebound once the economy restarts, or within the 2-3 years before first oil is expected for UHIC. Thus future quarters could see a gain on value in this investment. Assumptions were also negatively affected by changes in the discount rate and probability of success, and pushing out first oil by one year

Our core book value analysis always attributed zero value to UHIC's business (Resource Assets on the balance sheet), since it was based on a binary event of achieving first oil in Chad, with contingent bonus payments for meeting certain milestones and royalties on oil produced. In our view, this is additional upside, and fluctuations in the interim period are quite irrelevant to Dundee's value.
 
The loss in the quarter was also impacted by a $61.1M depreciation in the market value of investments, including a $39.8M decline in value of Dundee Precious Metals (DPM-TSX | BUY $9.50 TRGT). DPM is by far its largest position, and since quarter end has appreciated 40% ($64M). Other core positions such as Jervois Mining (JRV-TSXV | N/R) and Reunion Gold (RGD-TSXV | N/R) have appreciated since March 31.
 
Subsequent to quarter-end on May 7, Dundee announced that it had entered into an agreement with RBC Dominion Securities Inc. and Stifel GMP to sell 23.9M units of Dundee Precious Metals at $6.35/unit. Each unit consists of 1 common share owned by DC.A and one-half common share purchase warrant with an exercise price of $8.00 for 12 months. Through this transaction which closed today, Dundee will be generating $151.8M in cash, and through warrant exercise would generate a total of $247.4M. Prior to this sale, Dundee held 35.9M shares of DPM, or 19.83%. It will now own 6.62%, and less than 1% if warrants are fully exercised.
 
Our current core book value analysis indicates a target price of $2.60/share, in line with our previous analysis in August 2019 but with significant improvement in margin of safety considering we estimate $1.55 in cash/share following the sale of DPM and repayment of $10.1M in debt drawn in Q1. While this was a tough quarter for Dundee Corp. and the business is not immune to COVID-19, we believe that its exposure to mining will serve DC.A shareholders well in the near future, and with the massive cash injection from the sale of DPM, the current share price's discount to our core book value is even more unjustified. In these uncertain times, cash is king. While management is assessing potential uses for the cash, we believe it is highly probable we see a larger repurchase of preferred shares (Series 2 and 3, both with ongoing NCIBs) and an SIB/NCIB for the common shares.
 
 


Research
T. 416.603.4343
F. 416.603.8608
E: research@mpartners.ca
www.mpartners.ca
70 York Street Suite 1500
Toronto, ON Canada M5J 1S9
 

doc75

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sculpin

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #674 on: May 20, 2020, 07:59:13 AM »
Jonathan Goodman bought 1.5M shares @ $1.15 on May 15.   Always nice when the CEO buys 1.5% of the company.

Insiders and Polar own approximately 35% of the shares outstanding... sizable buybacks will further squeeze out the marginal sellers.

grandmasterG

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #675 on: May 22, 2020, 12:47:03 PM »
Some TauRx news today:

https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/taurx-reveals-study-results-that-offers-new-hope-for-treatment-of-patients-with-dementia-882883302.html

Really hope they can sell this before too long.

on the Q1 CC they repeated that they are in talks with interested parties that want to buy (part of) their stake in TauRx, news like this should increase interest in the company, and make it easier to sell it for a high price

bskptkl

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #676 on: May 22, 2020, 02:50:03 PM »
10:05 AM Haywood crossed 24,000 of the Ds
10:06 AM Haywood crossed 50,000 of the Bs

NCIB?

sculpin

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #677 on: June 12, 2020, 08:14:09 AM »
Also, Sinclair/Earlston buying continues...  On June 11th they added 20,400 DC.A and 2,200 DC.PR.B.   Total shares bought by SInclair in the past three weeks:

DC.A: 1,226,000
DC.PR.B: 102,200
DC.PR.D: 32,600

Total value of insider buying in the past month including Jonathan Goodman's 1.5M share DC.A purchase a few weeks back is about $5.4M.

doc75

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #678 on: June 17, 2020, 04:44:51 AM »
Another trickle of news regarding TauRx:

http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20200615000885

Here's an mazing stat from the article:

"The clinical trial failure rate for Alzheimerís disease treatments is said to be 99.6 percent. Between 2002 and 2012, among 413 drugs that set out to treat the disease, only Namenda had been given the green light to proceed with clinical tests."

grandmasterG

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Re: Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
« Reply #679 on: June 18, 2020, 11:20:28 AM »
Dundee PM now firmly above $ 8, the money from the exercised warrants probably coming in soon, market still not realizing they'll then have $ 2.4 per share in cash