Author Topic: Energy Sector  (Read 23929 times)

rb

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Re: Energy Sector
« Reply #110 on: March 18, 2020, 05:58:54 PM »
Calling it now, this is a Great Depression 2 making event.  Indices are likely to go past 50% down to even 70+%

You canít have a depression in a fiat money system unless politicians and central bankers choose to have one. We are far more likely to have an inflation.
You are correct in your premise, but wrong in your interpretation. You CAN have a depression if your politicians and central bankers are dumb enough. Have you looked around lately....?

Though i agree unless there was something seriously wrong with the economy that was papered over (not impossible, I have certain doubts). There is no depression to come.


opihiman2

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Re: Energy Sector
« Reply #111 on: March 18, 2020, 06:05:20 PM »
Interesting post:  https://catalyst-insights.com/the-virus-infecting-mlps/

Here are the fact sheets for the two levered MLP funds discussed in that post:
https://cef.tortoiseadvisors.com/media/1762/tyg-fact-sheet_022920_retail.pdf
https://www.gsam.com/content/gsam/us/en/individual/products/cef-fund-finder/goldman-sachs-mlp-and-energy-renaissance-fund.html#activeTab=holdings

They must have been selling at any price, though I doubt they have any assets left at this point. 

EDIT:  They also hold shares of the publicly traded C-corps.  See, e.g., this portfolio disclosure from the Tortoise Fund:  https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1268533/000114554920004137/xslFormNPORT-P_X01/primary_doc.xml

Yeah, I just saw this with mREITs today.  Two UBS leveraged ETF's in mREITS were just liquidated!  Most of these stocks were down 40 to 50%!  HOLY SHIT!  My gawd, man. I'm freaking the fuck out right now. 

KJP

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Re: Energy Sector
« Reply #112 on: March 18, 2020, 06:12:30 PM »
Interesting post:  https://catalyst-insights.com/the-virus-infecting-mlps/

Here are the fact sheets for the two levered MLP funds discussed in that post:
https://cef.tortoiseadvisors.com/media/1762/tyg-fact-sheet_022920_retail.pdf
https://www.gsam.com/content/gsam/us/en/individual/products/cef-fund-finder/goldman-sachs-mlp-and-energy-renaissance-fund.html#activeTab=holdings

They must have been selling at any price, though I doubt they have any assets left at this point. 

EDIT:  They also hold shares of the publicly traded C-corps.  See, e.g., this portfolio disclosure from the Tortoise Fund:  https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1268533/000114554920004137/xslFormNPORT-P_X01/primary_doc.xml

Yeah, I just saw this with mREITs today.  Two UBS leveraged ETF's in mREITS were just liquidated!  Most of these stocks were down 40 to 50%!  HOLY SHIT!  My gawd, man. I'm freaking the fuck out right now.

I'm actually encouraged by this.  It provides a plausible (though not necessarily complete or correct) explanation that had previously been lacking, at least on this thread.

Also, midstream companies and mREITs are often levered up to their eyeballs.  Is it wise to then lever your investment in them?  I assume part of the answer is that these are retail yield vehicles whose buyers don't understand what they're getting into. 

TwoCitiesCapital

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Re: Energy Sector
« Reply #113 on: March 18, 2020, 06:35:28 PM »
Interesting post:  https://catalyst-insights.com/the-virus-infecting-mlps/

Here are the fact sheets for the two levered MLP funds discussed in that post:
https://cef.tortoiseadvisors.com/media/1762/tyg-fact-sheet_022920_retail.pdf
https://www.gsam.com/content/gsam/us/en/individual/products/cef-fund-finder/goldman-sachs-mlp-and-energy-renaissance-fund.html#activeTab=holdings

They must have been selling at any price, though I doubt they have any assets left at this point. 

EDIT:  They also hold shares of the publicly traded C-corps.  See, e.g., this portfolio disclosure from the Tortoise Fund:  https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1268533/000114554920004137/xslFormNPORT-P_X01/primary_doc.xml

Yeah, I just saw this with mREITs today.  Two UBS leveraged ETF's in mREITS were just liquidated!  Most of these stocks were down 40 to 50%!  HOLY SHIT!  My gawd, man. I'm freaking the fuck out right now.

What's crazy about the mREITs that they basically are 5-7x leveraged versions of govt bonds. Even before today they were trading @ 20-30% discounts to NAV and then were down another 30% today!!!! NLY is down 50% from its recent highs.

To compare w/ 2008 (which was a crisis in their investment product of mortgages), they were up significantly depending on where you start and end you observation. But flat to plus 50% is still significantly better than the minus 50 we're seeing now :/

compoundinglife

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Re: Energy Sector
« Reply #114 on: March 18, 2020, 07:10:59 PM »
Interesting post:  https://catalyst-insights.com/the-virus-infecting-mlps/

Here are the fact sheets for the two levered MLP funds discussed in that post:
https://cef.tortoiseadvisors.com/media/1762/tyg-fact-sheet_022920_retail.pdf
https://www.gsam.com/content/gsam/us/en/individual/products/cef-fund-finder/goldman-sachs-mlp-and-energy-renaissance-fund.html#activeTab=holdings

They must have been selling at any price, though I doubt they have any assets left at this point. 

EDIT:  They also hold shares of the publicly traded C-corps.  See, e.g., this portfolio disclosure from the Tortoise Fund:  https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1268533/000114554920004137/xslFormNPORT-P_X01/primary_doc.xml

The Goldman levered MLP CEFs disclosed on March 9th that they were going to zero leverage. The one If I am remembering correctly, the one I looked at had 70m of leverage on a 100m portfolio.

opihiman2

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Re: Energy Sector
« Reply #115 on: March 18, 2020, 09:57:29 PM »
Interesting post:  https://catalyst-insights.com/the-virus-infecting-mlps/

Here are the fact sheets for the two levered MLP funds discussed in that post:
https://cef.tortoiseadvisors.com/media/1762/tyg-fact-sheet_022920_retail.pdf
https://www.gsam.com/content/gsam/us/en/individual/products/cef-fund-finder/goldman-sachs-mlp-and-energy-renaissance-fund.html#activeTab=holdings

They must have been selling at any price, though I doubt they have any assets left at this point. 

EDIT:  They also hold shares of the publicly traded C-corps.  See, e.g., this portfolio disclosure from the Tortoise Fund:  https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1268533/000114554920004137/xslFormNPORT-P_X01/primary_doc.xml

Yeah, I just saw this with mREITs today.  Two UBS leveraged ETF's in mREITS were just liquidated!  Most of these stocks were down 40 to 50%!  HOLY SHIT!  My gawd, man. I'm freaking the fuck out right now.

I'm actually encouraged by this.  It provides a plausible (though not necessarily complete or correct) explanation that had previously been lacking, at least on this thread.

Also, midstream companies and mREITs are often levered up to their eyeballs.  Is it wise to then lever your investment in them?  I assume part of the answer is that these are retail yield vehicles whose buyers don't understand what they're getting into.

You should read this paper:

https://necsi.edu/the-stock-market-has-grown-unstable-since-february-2018

It basically says that the markets were primed for huge price swings.  It didn't predict that swings would happen.  It just said that if there is a crisis (like coronavirus and oil war), the markets will swing wildly like we see now.  It doesn't provide an explanation, though.  Although, maybe having more leveraged ETF's than before is likely causing this issue.  Vehicles like 3x bull / bear ETF's weren't really around pre 2008.

KJP

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Re: Energy Sector
« Reply #116 on: March 19, 2020, 05:45:44 AM »
Interesting post:  https://catalyst-insights.com/the-virus-infecting-mlps/

Here are the fact sheets for the two levered MLP funds discussed in that post:
https://cef.tortoiseadvisors.com/media/1762/tyg-fact-sheet_022920_retail.pdf
https://www.gsam.com/content/gsam/us/en/individual/products/cef-fund-finder/goldman-sachs-mlp-and-energy-renaissance-fund.html#activeTab=holdings

They must have been selling at any price, though I doubt they have any assets left at this point. 

EDIT:  They also hold shares of the publicly traded C-corps.  See, e.g., this portfolio disclosure from the Tortoise Fund:  https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1268533/000114554920004137/xslFormNPORT-P_X01/primary_doc.xml

Yeah, I just saw this with mREITs today.  Two UBS leveraged ETF's in mREITS were just liquidated!  Most of these stocks were down 40 to 50%!  HOLY SHIT!  My gawd, man. I'm freaking the fuck out right now.

I'm actually encouraged by this.  It provides a plausible (though not necessarily complete or correct) explanation that had previously been lacking, at least on this thread.

Also, midstream companies and mREITs are often levered up to their eyeballs.  Is it wise to then lever your investment in them?  I assume part of the answer is that these are retail yield vehicles whose buyers don't understand what they're getting into.

You should read this paper:

https://necsi.edu/the-stock-market-has-grown-unstable-since-february-2018

It basically says that the markets were primed for huge price swings.  It didn't predict that swings would happen.  It just said that if there is a crisis (like coronavirus and oil war), the markets will swing wildly like we see now.  It doesn't provide an explanation, though.  Although, maybe having more leveraged ETF's than before is likely causing this issue.  Vehicles like 3x bull / bear ETF's weren't really around pre 2008.

I took a look at the paper.  As you note, it's hard to glean anything from it, but your hypothesis about one of the potential factors makes sense:  The more leveraged investors are, the more forced selling there will be.

KJP

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Re: Energy Sector
« Reply #117 on: March 19, 2020, 07:14:51 PM »
Interesting post:  https://catalyst-insights.com/the-virus-infecting-mlps/

Here are the fact sheets for the two levered MLP funds discussed in that post:
https://cef.tortoiseadvisors.com/media/1762/tyg-fact-sheet_022920_retail.pdf
https://www.gsam.com/content/gsam/us/en/individual/products/cef-fund-finder/goldman-sachs-mlp-and-energy-renaissance-fund.html#activeTab=holdings

They must have been selling at any price, though I doubt they have any assets left at this point. 

EDIT:  They also hold shares of the publicly traded C-corps.  See, e.g., this portfolio disclosure from the Tortoise Fund:  https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1268533/000114554920004137/xslFormNPORT-P_X01/primary_doc.xml

Here's another levered midstream CEF:  https://kaynefunds.com/wp-content/uploads/KYN-20-02-29-NAV-Press-Release.pdf

It's down about 80% so far in 2020. 

And another:  https://www.leggmason.com/en-us/products/closed-end-funds/clearbridge-energy-midstream-opportunity-fund-inc.html

It's down 90% YTD. 

And why not, here's one more:  https://www.leggmason.com/content/dam/legg-mason/documents/en/product-literature/fact-sheet/fact-sheet-cbi-energy-mlp.pdf

These funds are now selling at big discounts to NAV, which is no surprise given the recent performance.
« Last Edit: March 19, 2020, 07:26:14 PM by KJP »

KJP

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opihiman2

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Re: Energy Sector
« Reply #119 on: March 20, 2020, 05:47:40 PM »
  https://www.wsj.com/articles/opec-u-s-shale-producers-open-talks-amid-oil-rout-11584719936

This is a tough call.  If they agree to cuts and Russia is on board, I think oil pumps up a bit.  But the demand side of the equation.  It's anyone's guess at this point.  I'm still thinking WTI tanks below $20, and Brent goes to about $20.  At that point, I'm starting to buy the majors and some midstreams.  10% of the portfolio goes into this.