Author Topic: Value investing in art...  (Read 6274 times)

LC

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5520
Re: Value investing in art...
« Reply #10 on: December 20, 2016, 09:53:36 PM »
Someone with more computing skill than I could probably figure out a way to automatically pull all sold listings from ebay...all you would need is the sale price (maybe shipping cost)/date/product ID....chart that stuff, find the items with most variable sale price above a requisite level of volume, regress the price over time, pick a certain RoC you want (i.e. 25%), and go from there.

Frankly, ebay should take this idea and sell it to their power sellers, if they don't already.

Here's the funny thing.  To 99% of business people who've never heard of value investing this concept is the foundation of "business."  You buy things cheap and sell them at higher prices.

I've heard dozens of stories of people who buy cheap items on Craigslist and then turn around and resell them at higher prices right on Craigslist.  Or garage sales, real estate, or really anything.  Businesses are looking for low cost supply and then aim to profit on the sale.

I've found myself that after a few weeks of watching Craigslist and eBay for certain items I can learn the market and find these same arbitrage opportunities.  You need to look at a narrow market then follow for a while.  Eventually you'll *know* what things generally retail for and can spot a deal.  You need to act quickly and move fast with cash to close the deal.

Some people are just deal hunters.  They can hunt in stocks, or in guitars, or horse trailers, or really anything.  I enjoy these stories as well.
"Lethargy bordering on sloth remains the cornerstone of our investment style."
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
akam| brk.b | goog | irm | lyv | net | nlsn | pm | ssd | t | tfsl | v | wfc | xom


Jurgis

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5786
    • Porfolio
Re: Value investing in art...
« Reply #11 on: December 20, 2016, 09:58:51 PM »
Someone with more computing skill than I could probably figure out a way to automatically pull all sold listings from ebay...all you would need is the sale price (maybe shipping cost)/date/product ID....chart that stuff, find the items with most variable sale price above a requisite level of volume, regress the price over time, pick a certain RoC you want (i.e. 25%), and go from there.

Yeah, that's why most markets are getting more and more efficient.

There are edge cases where people still can make money. And the more it's physical world vs. online computer-processable, the more edges there are. But even physical world edges are getting smoothed out somewhat. Not totally though.
"Human civilization? It might be a good idea." - Not Gandhi
"Before you can be rich, you must be poor." - Nef Anyo
"Money is an illusion" - Not Karl Marx
-----------------------

tede02

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 433
Re: Value investing in art...
« Reply #12 on: December 21, 2016, 05:08:26 AM »
Here's the funny thing.  To 99% of business people who've never heard of value investing this concept is the foundation of "business."  You buy things cheap and sell them at higher prices.

I've heard dozens of stories of people who buy cheap items on Craigslist and then turn around and resell them at higher prices right on Craigslist.  Or garage sales, real estate, or really anything.  Businesses are looking for low cost supply and then aim to profit on the sale.

I've found myself that after a few weeks of watching Craigslist and eBay for certain items I can learn the market and find these same arbitrage opportunities.  You need to look at a narrow market then follow for a while.  Eventually you'll *know* what things generally retail for and can spot a deal.  You need to act quickly and move fast with cash to close the deal.

Some people are just deal hunters.  They can hunt in stocks, or in guitars, or horse trailers, or really anything.  I enjoy these stories as well.

This is so spot on.  Everyone is a value investor until it comes to investing in stocks.  It's amazing how the idea of buying things at a discount and flipping for a profit gets all gobbed when an asset starts trading on an exchange. 

Jurgis

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5786
    • Porfolio
Re: Value investing in art...
« Reply #13 on: December 21, 2016, 07:45:42 AM »
This is so spot on.  Everyone is a value investor until it comes to investing in stocks.  It's amazing how the idea of buying things at a discount and flipping for a profit gets all gobbed when an asset starts trading on an exchange.

I think this is way one sided. A lot of entrepreneurs don't do what oddballstocks described. He described a subset of businesses exploiting arbitrage opportunities. If you create a business (ok, startup  8) ) to create new product, you're not building it as a value investor. Even if you create a business that provides a service, the arbitrage part (buy low, sell high) may become much lesser part of the game. And if you're building out business running at a loss to size it up or capture some market, that's definitely not value investing.
"Human civilization? It might be a good idea." - Not Gandhi
"Before you can be rich, you must be poor." - Nef Anyo
"Money is an illusion" - Not Karl Marx
-----------------------

LC

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5520
Re: Value investing in art...
« Reply #14 on: December 21, 2016, 09:35:22 AM »
This is so spot on.  Everyone is a value investor until it comes to investing in stocks.  It's amazing how the idea of buying things at a discount and flipping for a profit gets all gobbed when an asset starts trading on an exchange.
Not sure I agree...the stock market is more efficient than not. Things are usually cheap for a reason.

Nobody goes to the grocery store and buys spoiled food just because it's half price.
"Lethargy bordering on sloth remains the cornerstone of our investment style."
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
akam| brk.b | goog | irm | lyv | net | nlsn | pm | ssd | t | tfsl | v | wfc | xom

vox

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 150
Re: Value investing in art...
« Reply #15 on: December 21, 2016, 10:47:45 AM »
Quote
Nobody goes to the grocery store and buys spoiled food just because it's half price.

Spoiled food has no value, other than as fertilizer. There are stores that will sell 'misfit' food that have cosmetic defects for a discount.

Regarding Daryl Morey and the Houston Rockets, is there any evidence that they have drafted more efficiently than other NBA teams given their draft slots? Or that NBA teams are overall better at drafting players than they were a decade ago? The Morey era Rockets don't immediately come to mind among teams that have the best recent draft records (Jazz, Warriors, Thunder, Spurs, Bucks), they are more known for their statistically optimal offensive game plan.
« Last Edit: December 21, 2016, 01:29:56 PM by vox »

dyow

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 158
Re: Value investing in art...
« Reply #16 on: December 21, 2016, 03:32:17 PM »
I look at value investing as an art.  Looking at the market is like looking at messed up art.  It is confusing if you look at it superficially.  But instead of looking at the picture right side up, you need to turn the picture upside down, then you understand it for what it is and see it in its true form.  and you see its real beauty. 

As far as what other people consider art...honestly i look at that stuff and think wtf is this.  Most artists were hermits/lonely/disturbed people who nobody paid attention to when they were alive. Then after they die young from depression or drug abuse, they become special and people attach all these meanings to the work they did and their paintings sell for millions.  Ask someone who likes art about a specific art piece and why they like it...their response will be borderline bi-polar and something like "oh when i look at this i see this this but i also see that and it makes me feel like this but it also makes me feel like that". C'mon now, you don't need art you need medication.  The worst part is these same people who worship these artists would never have paid attention to these people when they were alive. 

Value investing is true art (or inventions like cars, planes etc the people who invented these things were bad ass artists).......and if you get the art right you get paid....real artists get paid when they are alive.       

I would short the whole art market if i could. 
« Last Edit: December 21, 2016, 03:37:07 PM by dyow »

whiterose

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 98
Re: Value investing in art...
« Reply #17 on: December 22, 2016, 12:19:36 PM »
You shouldn't confuse art as such with the art-market, these are two different things. Art works which are culturally significant and have a place in art history are not necessarily high priced. There is over time a correlation between the two, but it's not that strong I guess maybe 0.4?
Also there are trends/fads like in fashion, which can last for 1-50 years, or even will get rebooted after 100 years. There are some interesting studies regarding investing in art, but to not get into detail; it's per se a not very rational option if you look at it just for investing purposes.
You are able to make money though via buying low and selling high in a shorter time frame ("flipping"), if you guess the current value right and have on the other side of the deal as best case scenario a willing buyer. But that's already a business called being an art-dealer.

oddballstocks

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2266
    • Oddball Stocks Blog
Re: Value investing in art...
« Reply #18 on: December 22, 2016, 12:36:08 PM »
I look at value investing as an art.  Looking at the market is like looking at messed up art.  It is confusing if you look at it superficially.  But instead of looking at the picture right side up, you need to turn the picture upside down, then you understand it for what it is and see it in its true form.  and you see its real beauty. 

As far as what other people consider art...honestly i look at that stuff and think wtf is this.  Most artists were hermits/lonely/disturbed people who nobody paid attention to when they were alive. Then after they die young from depression or drug abuse, they become special and people attach all these meanings to the work they did and their paintings sell for millions.  Ask someone who likes art about a specific art piece and why they like it...their response will be borderline bi-polar and something like "oh when i look at this i see this this but i also see that and it makes me feel like this but it also makes me feel like that". C'mon now, you don't need art you need medication.  The worst part is these same people who worship these artists would never have paid attention to these people when they were alive. 

Value investing is true art (or inventions like cars, planes etc the people who invented these things were bad ass artists).......and if you get the art right you get paid....real artists get paid when they are alive.       

I would short the whole art market if i could.

This reads like some punk rocker writing about classic music.  "pianos, who needs that crap? Melodies? They're worthless!"

I appreciate art.  Like anything there are a lot of different styles.  I acknowledge and appreciate the talent that went into sculpting, or creating lifelike statues out of marble.  Think of the challenge in taking a piece of rock and making it look like a person.  I also like landscapes and paintings about specific things.  My guess is you're ranting about modern art.  Most seems strange, but some is fascinating.

Art is a medium for an artist to tell a story.  I personally enjoy writing, that's the medium I use.  Others use a paint brush, or chisel, or musical instrument.  If you view art in this context I think it's easier to appreciate.

Most on here probably agree with you.  I enjoy lingering at art museums, looking at the paintings and imagining the emotion that created the picture.  My wife will breeze through "looks good, where's the exit?"

Art is a medium to be respected.  It's one of the only timeless artifacts.  Reading 10-K's and investing? No one will care in 500 years.  Statues and monuments created today might persist for a thousand years or more.  We are still analyzing cave paintings from 10s of thousands of years ago.  Ponder that for a few minutes.  For most of us 100% of what we create will fade into the wind.  But paintings in a cave still have meaning.
The ultimate edge for bank investors: http://www.completebankdata.com

Jurgis

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5786
    • Porfolio
Re: Value investing in art...
« Reply #19 on: December 25, 2016, 08:05:49 AM »
http://jasonzweig.com/a-portrait-of-the-investing-columnist-as-a-very-young-man/

(Reposting from SI).

This covers what oddballstocks and some other people on this thread talked about. Pretty interesting article.

I don't necessarily agree with all sentiments expressed in the article about stocks.
"Human civilization? It might be a good idea." - Not Gandhi
"Before you can be rich, you must be poor." - Nef Anyo
"Money is an illusion" - Not Karl Marx
-----------------------