Author Topic: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.  (Read 3641740 times)

orthopa

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12800 on: June 27, 2019, 05:20:15 AM »
Did you guys forget about the part where Calabria, an extremely calculated individual, went on public TV and reiterated IPO while referencing conversion or par for preferreds like 3 weeks ago? 

None of these weird theories would be discussed if the market price hadn't dipped a little bit.

It is more concerning that just "market price dipping". It is normal for a stock to pull back after a good run. What concerned me was the internals of the chart. The behavior of the chart looked like a top instead of a retracement before the continuation of another up move. I am not going to disclose how I use TA to analyze and draw these conclusions. Even if I do, I'll be labelled as voodoo one more time.

I think the internals of the chart for FNMAS as a generic pfd view look like an upturn is coming. The pullback has happened on low volume, MACD looks to be turning up soon, stochs are where a turn around has been before, OBV hasnt falled off a cliff and Accum/Dist looks fine too. Market is waiting for upcoming news.


orthopa

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12801 on: June 27, 2019, 05:27:51 AM »
It has been slow the last couple of weeks but it could be the quiet before the storm (confirmation bias?). Does not mean anything about the outcome/this investment has changed. Phillips left bc he was/is done with the plan. He was hired to construct a plan, and is gone now bc the plan is at the WH. Not sure how much more you can glean from that. IMO fuck Tim Howard. He only hears/types what he wants to hear and has no more pull then anyone outside of the admin. He is on the outside pushing his agenda on his blog and what benefits him most.

Could just be admin waiting for en banc? If so, so be it. It is frustrating to wait long now that the end of June is here but it is what it is. Does not mean plan is off the rails.

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12802 on: June 27, 2019, 06:46:41 AM »
howard is extremely knowledgeable about GSEs and understands the animus directed to the GSEs by the tbtf crowd.  for sure this colors his views.  there is a difference between what should be done and what is likely to be done, and Tim resists that compromise.  as investors we dont want the perfect to destroy the good.  Tim wants the perfect because he is the smartest guy in the GSE room and is not motivated by an investment return.  I think his blog has made huge strides in attempting to educate people about the facts relating to the GSEs, and has done all GSE investors a great service.

muscleman

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12803 on: June 27, 2019, 08:15:01 AM »
Did you guys forget about the part where Calabria, an extremely calculated individual, went on public TV and reiterated IPO while referencing conversion or par for preferreds like 3 weeks ago? 

None of these weird theories would be discussed if the market price hadn't dipped a little bit.

It is more concerning that just "market price dipping". It is normal for a stock to pull back after a good run. What concerned me was the internals of the chart. The behavior of the chart looked like a top instead of a retracement before the continuation of another up move. I am not going to disclose how I use TA to analyze and draw these conclusions. Even if I do, I'll be labelled as voodoo one more time.

I think the internals of the chart for FNMAS as a generic pfd view look like an upturn is coming. The pullback has happened on low volume, MACD looks to be turning up soon, stochs are where a turn around has been before, OBV hasnt falled off a cliff and Accum/Dist looks fine too. Market is waiting for upcoming news.


Just like FA, where different people disagreeing on the same names, TA is the same. I wouldn't mind seeing disagreements with me.
BTW, I haven't found any of these indicators useful. (MACD, stoch, and almost every indicator known.).
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Eye4Valu

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12804 on: June 27, 2019, 08:46:15 AM »
howard is extremely knowledgeable about GSEs and understands the animus directed to the GSEs by the tbtf crowd.  for sure this colors his views.  there is a difference between what should be done and what is likely to be done, and Tim resists that compromise.  as investors we dont want the perfect to destroy the good.  Tim wants the perfect because he is the smartest guy in the GSE room and is not motivated by an investment return.  I think his blog has made huge strides in attempting to educate people about the facts relating to the GSEs, and has done all GSE investors a great service.

Well said

orthopa

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12805 on: June 27, 2019, 10:45:00 AM »
howard is extremely knowledgeable about GSEs and understands the animus directed to the GSEs by the tbtf crowd.  for sure this colors his views.  there is a difference between what should be done and what is likely to be done, and Tim resists that compromise.  as investors we dont want the perfect to destroy the good.  Tim wants the perfect because he is the smartest guy in the GSE room and is not motivated by an investment return.  I think his blog has made huge strides in attempting to educate people about the facts relating to the GSEs, and has done all GSE investors a great service.

No question he is most knowledgeable. The problem is if anyone has every brought up an opinion or point contrary to him he deletes it off of his blog and immediately dismisses it. I get that its his blog but sometimes a little back and forth is helpful to evaluate the entire range of outcomes.

BTShine

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12806 on: June 27, 2019, 10:55:25 AM »
If I had to guess, I'd think the Administration drops big news of their plan regarding the GSEs over the July 4th Holiday.  Doesn't give the media much chance to go nuts over Trump "handing billions of $$$ to his buddies Paulson & Co."  Journalists are on vacation and no one is reading the news while they're at their BBQ, Lake House or Boat. 

Akin to Tesla dropping bad news after market close on Friday night. 

muscleman

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12807 on: June 27, 2019, 11:28:38 AM »
If I had to guess, I'd think the Administration drops big news of their plan regarding the GSEs over the July 4th Holiday.  Doesn't give the media much chance to go nuts over Trump "handing billions of $$$ to his buddies Paulson & Co."  Journalists are on vacation and no one is reading the news while they're at their BBQ, Lake House or Boat. 

Akin to Tesla dropping bad news after market close on Friday night.

Be careful with wishful thinking like this. I think a more realistic assessment is that there is some magic force probably from the tbtf banks that delays this again. Think about this:
Why is Otting’s 2-4 week comment failed to deliver?
Why did Calabria changed his tone from IPO in the 1st quarter next year to hopefully sometime next year?
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orthopa

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12808 on: June 27, 2019, 12:32:37 PM »
If I had to guess, I'd think the Administration drops big news of their plan regarding the GSEs over the July 4th Holiday.  Doesn't give the media much chance to go nuts over Trump "handing billions of $$$ to his buddies Paulson & Co."  Journalists are on vacation and no one is reading the news while they're at their BBQ, Lake House or Boat. 

Akin to Tesla dropping bad news after market close on Friday night.

Be careful with wishful thinking like this. I think a more realistic assessment is that there is some magic force probably from the tbtf banks that delays this again. Think about this:
Why is Otting’s 2-4 week comment failed to deliver?
Why did Calabria changed his tone from IPO in the 1st quarter next year to hopefully sometime next year?

FWIW the presidential memo outlining the request for a plan did come out in March so it was what ~4 weeks late?  Otting was implying at the time the everyone is one board with what was going to happen. The memo could have been what he was referring to a plan that was coming out.

There certainly could be a TBTF force behind the scenes and they can delay all they want but will in the end they will lose. EVERYTHING has lined up for what we as longs have hoped for. Its just may take longer then we thought. What is a couple weeks or month extra? There is a presidential memo requesting a plan that will put $$$ in our pockets and there have been clues along the way with recent comments from Calabria what that may mean in regards to return.

All the delay does it speed up the recap in the end. I believe there is a set deadline this is all up against and that is the upcoming election. The longer the delay the harder the recap cram. The big picture is still there. Concerning oneself with every little word and detail will make you crazy.

orthopa

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12809 on: June 27, 2019, 12:56:29 PM »
I went and looked back in the thread and FWIW since I tend to like patterns last time hardincap got real down on FnF the WH released the presidental memo a couple days later. Maybe we are close! ;) :D