Author Topic: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.  (Read 3669155 times)

rros

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12810 on: June 27, 2019, 03:57:46 PM »
Everybody relax... The big picture: back in the days of the Berko run from end of 2012 through Lamberth 2014 the 5 monthly ma contained all retracements. A history of 23 months. Today's 5 MMA for fnmas stands at $11.43, for fmckj at $11.31 and for fnmat at $10.74. We are well within normal retracement territory and likely July will test these levels. Preferreds just ran too fast, too strong. Nothing has changed.


Wiggins

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12811 on: June 27, 2019, 04:45:21 PM »
Question:
What, pray tell, could be in the Treasury plan that is bad for investors in the short to intermediate term?
My thoughts are realistically, nothing. In the short term bullish given that the plan should suggest ending the NWS, probably replace it with a periodic commitment fee. In the long term, probably a wish list of very bank friendly legislative suggestions...

muscleman

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12812 on: June 28, 2019, 06:47:08 AM »
Everybody relax... The big picture: back in the days of the Berko run from end of 2012 through Lamberth 2014 the 5 monthly ma contained all retracements. A history of 23 months. Today's 5 MMA for fnmas stands at $11.43, for fmckj at $11.31 and for fnmat at $10.74. We are well within normal retracement territory and likely July will test these levels. Preferreds just ran too fast, too strong. Nothing has changed.

No intention for insult, but if this is the kind of technical analysis you do, no wonder why you guys all think TA is just non-sense and voodoo.  :o
I am muslceman. I have more muscle than brain!

Wiggins

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12813 on: June 28, 2019, 07:59:03 AM »
@muscleman

I haven't seen any evidence that everyone thinks TA is voodoo. I think many don't understand what you do is all. What I have seen is that some people are curious about it, myself included. And I generally enjoy your posts.
Why don't you ever explain what you're doing, or provide a link to some illustrative instructional info?


Everybody relax... The big picture: back in the days of the Berko run from end of 2012 through Lamberth 2014 the 5 monthly ma contained all retracements. A history of 23 months. Today's 5 MMA for fnmas stands at $11.43, for fmckj at $11.31 and for fnmat at $10.74. We are well within normal retracement territory and likely July will test these levels. Preferreds just ran too fast, too strong. Nothing has changed.

No intention for insult, but if this is the kind of technical analysis you do, no wonder why you guys all think TA is just non-sense and voodoo.  :o

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12814 on: June 28, 2019, 08:49:50 AM »
@muscleman

I haven't seen any evidence that everyone thinks TA is voodoo. I think many don't understand what you do is all. What I have seen is that some people are curious about it, myself included. And I generally enjoy your posts.
Why don't you ever explain what you're doing, or provide a link to some illustrative instructional info?


Everybody relax... The big picture: back in the days of the Berko run from end of 2012 through Lamberth 2014 the 5 monthly ma contained all retracements. A history of 23 months. Today's 5 MMA for fnmas stands at $11.43, for fmckj at $11.31 and for fnmat at $10.74. We are well within normal retracement territory and likely July will test these levels. Preferreds just ran too fast, too strong. Nothing has changed.

No intention for insult, but if this is the kind of technical analysis you do, no wonder why you guys all think TA is just non-sense and voodoo.  :o

I think all investors (especially in GSEs) are trying to predict future events under conditions of uncertainty.  I typically use my research and life experience to make this analysis...very subjective.  I suppose reading charts is more objective, until you hear all of the subjective discussion about what is the right why to do TA.  I have seen TA that makes very precise assertions about future action and this is the part that seems delving into black magic.  but if it keeps you sane and even makes some money for you I'm all for it...for you

muscleman

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12815 on: June 28, 2019, 09:28:51 AM »
@muscleman

I haven't seen any evidence that everyone thinks TA is voodoo. I think many don't understand what you do is all. What I have seen is that some people are curious about it, myself included. And I generally enjoy your posts.
Why don't you ever explain what you're doing, or provide a link to some illustrative instructional info?


Everybody relax... The big picture: back in the days of the Berko run from end of 2012 through Lamberth 2014 the 5 monthly ma contained all retracements. A history of 23 months. Today's 5 MMA for fnmas stands at $11.43, for fmckj at $11.31 and for fnmat at $10.74. We are well within normal retracement territory and likely July will test these levels. Preferreds just ran too fast, too strong. Nothing has changed.

No intention for insult, but if this is the kind of technical analysis you do, no wonder why you guys all think TA is just non-sense and voodoo.  :o

I think all investors (especially in GSEs) are trying to predict future events under conditions of uncertainty.  I typically use my research and life experience to make this analysis...very subjective.  I suppose reading charts is more objective, until you hear all of the subjective discussion about what is the right why to do TA.  I have seen TA that makes very precise assertions about future action and this is the part that seems delving into black magic.  but if it keeps you sane and even makes some money for you I'm all for it...for you


There are lots of naive TA traders who are new to the market and just learned the magic of buying a stock because one fast moving average cross a slow moving average, or a stochastic indicator is oversold. Those things are complete non-sense and voodoo.

I used to be that kind of guy when I was 18, and got my whole forex account wiped out. (only $800 though, but still meaningful even how young I was and how little I earn when I was in China).
I gave up TA completely for a decade, and learned FA really hard, until I realized that I am really not the type of guy who can sit tight reading 10-Ks 100 hours a week.

Then I came back to TA and tried to study it with a different angle, and I like what I am doing so far.
« Last Edit: June 28, 2019, 09:31:14 AM by muscleman »
I am muslceman. I have more muscle than brain!

muscleman

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12816 on: June 28, 2019, 09:43:55 AM »
@muscleman

I haven't seen any evidence that everyone thinks TA is voodoo. I think many don't understand what you do is all. What I have seen is that some people are curious about it, myself included. And I generally enjoy your posts.
Why don't you ever explain what you're doing, or provide a link to some illustrative instructional info?


Everybody relax... The big picture: back in the days of the Berko run from end of 2012 through Lamberth 2014 the 5 monthly ma contained all retracements. A history of 23 months. Today's 5 MMA for fnmas stands at $11.43, for fmckj at $11.31 and for fnmat at $10.74. We are well within normal retracement territory and likely July will test these levels. Preferreds just ran too fast, too strong. Nothing has changed.

No intention for insult, but if this is the kind of technical analysis you do, no wonder why you guys all think TA is just non-sense and voodoo.  :o

I think all investors (especially in GSEs) are trying to predict future events under conditions of uncertainty.  I typically use my research and life experience to make this analysis...very subjective.  I suppose reading charts is more objective, until you hear all of the subjective discussion about what is the right why to do TA.  I have seen TA that makes very precise assertions about future action and this is the part that seems delving into black magic.  but if it keeps you sane and even makes some money for you I'm all for it...for you

If you check all my prior posts, it tells you all.
But I can give you a summary here. I don't buy/sell a stock because a magic fast moving average crosses a slower moving average. That's complete non-sense.
What I do is to read the news and the FA, see who are bashing and pumping the stocks, and how the stock reacts.

I had high confidence when white house published the paper in March because no way white house would be involved in pumping the stock. Then a few days later, there was a big bash by Gaparino, and I was watching that closely. At the end of the day, the stock completely recovered, and later that week, I noticed that the volume happened to be the lowest that week on the Gapirino bashing day. So I was even more bullish on the stock.
Later it had a reasonable run, and I was still quite bullish, until the whack job Bill Maloni started spreading rumors that the Collins ruling was coming on Friday afternoon. That obviously didn't materialize, even on Monday. So that's a clear sign of warning. I waited for a few more days, and turned very bearish. I later decided to get out completely a few days after the Bloomberg sucker article with all kinds of false narratives came in. I thought that article was another bashing attempt like Gaspirino, which means stock should promptly recover and go to high grounds, but that didn't happen, so something else was going on. I sold out. Then Calabria changed his tune from "IPO in the 1st Quarter next year" to "Hopefully sometime next year". So that's a clear sign of negativity.

I still think a lot of discussions here make sense, so I am still closely watching this, hold a lot of cash, and be ready to get in again.
I am muslceman. I have more muscle than brain!

DRValue

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12817 on: June 28, 2019, 10:50:02 AM »
Because of my confirmation bias, I sometimes like what Charlie says.

This is one of those times.

https://mobile.twitter.com/CGasparino/status/1144654216574709762
[E]xpedience does not license omnipotence.

Not Investment Advice. Do Your Own Research.

muscleman

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12818 on: June 28, 2019, 12:20:09 PM »
Because of my confirmation bias, I sometimes like what Charlie says.

This is one of those times.

https://mobile.twitter.com/CGasparino/status/1144654216574709762

JP Morgan..... Isn't this the tbtf bank that tries to kill FnF?

Keep in mind that this is the exact reverse of what happened two months ago.
Back then, Gaspirino was bashing and stock was moving up. Now Gaspirino is pumping and stock is sliding down.

With that said, I actually agree with all the analysis you guys did, so I still personally believe the story will work out.
I am muslceman. I have more muscle than brain!

DRValue

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12819 on: June 28, 2019, 12:29:06 PM »
Because of my confirmation bias, I sometimes like what Charlie says.

This is one of those times.

https://mobile.twitter.com/CGasparino/status/1144654216574709762

JP Morgan..... Isn't this the tbtf bank that tries to kill FnF?

Keep in mind that this is the exact reverse of what happened two months ago.
Back then, Gaspirino was bashing and stock was moving up. Now Gaspirino is pumping and stock is sliding down.

With that said, I actually agree with all the analysis you guys did, so I still personally believe the story will work out.

All we had to do with this is separate the facts that are reported and exclude the opinions of those with an axe to grind. Charlie doesn't matter, only the circumstance he reports.

But net positive I'd say.

As to why they met, could be a road show or moelis working with a book runner or scoping investor appetite. Any number of things.
[E]xpedience does not license omnipotence.

Not Investment Advice. Do Your Own Research.