Author Topic: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.  (Read 3878260 times)

no_free_lunch

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12950 on: July 12, 2019, 08:09:49 PM »
 Nice find allnatural.

In the end, who cares. If anything this provided an opportunity to invest.  Fannie isn't hurt by this.  They will still package mortgages. They didn't have to raise capital today.   In the end all that matters is what Trump admin does.  Maybe this will serve as a reminder to move reform forward.
« Last Edit: July 12, 2019, 09:34:47 PM by no_free_lunch »


cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12951 on: July 13, 2019, 10:19:14 AM »
Nice find allnatural.

In the end, who cares. If anything this provided an opportunity to invest.  Fannie isn't hurt by this.  They will still package mortgages. They didn't have to raise capital today.   In the end all that matters is what Trump admin does.  Maybe this will serve as a reminder to move reform forward.

good reason always to have some dry tinder

investorG

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12952 on: July 14, 2019, 11:38:20 AM »
Were Otting's comments on the record?

Did you not read about a month ago when it was said Phillips would leave but not until he was done?  It's not like his leaving was in the middle of the night... it was announced at least a few weeks before he departed.

Sure, confirmation bias is a b****, but mere confirmation from those calling the shots is a beautiful thing.

luke, how do you explain the continued delays and reneging of previously committed timelines and positions (collins about-face)?

hardincap, have you ever canceled (partially or fully) a ~$200bn asset of the US govt? it might not be so easy.   If that was your intention, which appears necessary for them to exit conservatorship, and ~15 judges were about to issue a ruling that may or may not do it for you -- wouldn't you buy some time by contacting your favorite Bloomberg reporter?

imo the main deadline is next may.  after that, a re-IPO is unlikely with the summer and election.  whether the Tsy report comes out to the public in june, july or September of 2019 isn't likely crucial. 

There's a real chance Mnuchin has kept a professional distance between watt, otting, and Calabria while they are FHFA director (not before).  There's some chance Otting acted on his own regarding the constitutional decision.   And it made good sense for Calabria to try to protect his job in 2021 if Trump loses by reversing Otting's move.

muscleman

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12953 on: July 15, 2019, 05:38:33 AM »
Just a reminder, a lot of GSE investors on this thread donít seem to have a plan to exit their positions. Whenever some bad news came out, keep rationalizing why it is ok, and thatís not a solid plan.
Selling at par is the maximum goal but most optimistic goal would not be the baseline goal for your trading plan.
I am muslceman. I have more muscle than brain!

james22

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12954 on: July 15, 2019, 07:07:06 AM »
What makes you think that, muscleman?
BRK, BAM l SV, EM l Energy l Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac l Stable Value, Cash Value of Pension

muscleman

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12955 on: July 15, 2019, 07:28:53 AM »
What makes you think that, muscleman?

The last few trading daysí posts
I am muslceman. I have more muscle than brain!

orthopa

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12956 on: July 15, 2019, 08:34:41 AM »
Just a reminder, a lot of GSE investors on this thread donít seem to have a plan to exit their positions. Whenever some bad news came out, keep rationalizing why it is ok, and thatís not a solid plan.
Selling at par is the maximum goal but most optimistic goal would not be the baseline goal for your trading plan.

I exit the position after the recap plan comes out and I make an assessment of perceived final value after conversion or redemption etc. That is the exit plan. Bad news for me is if FnF is liquidated and the gov, the appeals courts and supreme court tell shareholders to fuck off. I believe we are the furthest from that than any other time I have held the shares.

I think your trying to apply a trading plan to an event driven highly sensitive illiquid set of securities.  That in of itself would probably exclude it from most rational technical analysis trading plans. As someone pointed out before you cant predict the future and thus the final outcome. This investment has a binary outcome, really bad, or really good and Im pretty sure most of those posting and invested have come to terms with that. As a conclusion an exit plan is not rational with your line of thinking here.

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12957 on: July 15, 2019, 09:23:11 AM »
I would agree that in an event driven investment, you have to wait for the event or clarity that the event won't happen etc.  looking at the chart doesn't do much for me...unless the chart says close to par.

letter from counsel for collins today (example where you point out that defendant's conduct makes plaintiff's argument for them):

"Re: Collins v. Federal Housing Finance Agency,
No. 17-20364

Dear Mr. Cayce:

It is no coincidence that since the current President took office the Department of Justice has had one position on FHFA’s constitutionality and FHFA has had three. FHFA’s latest switch, prompted once again by a change in leadership at the agency, only further underscores how this agency’s novel structure places vast executive power in the hands of a single individual who is wholly unaccountable to the President. Humphrey’s Executor blessed the FTC’s independence because in that case independence—combined with leadership from a commission whose members serve staggered terms—was thought to promote continuity and expertise at the agency. In FHFA’s case, independence achieves the opposite of continuity by leaving critical policy decisions up to the whim of whichever individual happens to sit atop the organizational chart of an agency that answers to no one. FHFA was right the second time, not the first or the third.

Respectfully submitted,

/s/ David H. Thompson"
« Last Edit: July 15, 2019, 11:35:44 AM by cherzeca »

james22

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12958 on: July 15, 2019, 10:55:03 AM »
What orthopa and cherzeca said.

I've made my bet and I'll live with it.

The last thing I'll do is trade around Bloomberg "news" and White House corrections.
BRK, BAM l SV, EM l Energy l Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac l Stable Value, Cash Value of Pension

Luke 5:32

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12959 on: July 15, 2019, 12:32:31 PM »
FNMAS has traded more shares today than FNMA.  Not sure I've seen that before, although I haven't compared historical volume.  I post this as nothing more than an interesting observation.
"You spoke a word and life began, told oceans where to start and where to end. You set in motion time and space, still You come and You call to me by name."  Stars by Skillet. Listen here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TbLJyjfyACM