Author Topic: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.  (Read 3657767 times)

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #13400 on: September 01, 2019, 03:48:27 PM »
@cherzeca

I saw your post on Tim Howard's blog about a possible 4th amendment rescuing the 3rd. Is it possible that the sides are in confidential settlement talks and have asked the court to delay its decision until those talks either break down completely or lead to a successful settlement? From everything I can tell, Treasury is willing to give up the seniors and the NWS because those are necessary steps towards raising capital. What, then, do Treasury or FHFA have to lose by settling the case? Or are there too many potential leaks for this to be plausible given that we haven't heard anything at all about a possible settlement?

One potential piece of disconfirming evidence, though, is Calabria's letter reversing Otting's position and claiming that the for cause removal is constitutional after all. If the Collins case is settled and dismissed rather than being ruled on by the en banc panel, what happens to the FHFA director removal clause? Does it remain in its original HERA state (for cause) because the state of the world would be as if the Collins case never happened? Or would it change to at will because that's what the Fifth Circuit merits panel ruled? Or would its fate be part of the negotiations?

you ask a lot here, but one thing that interests me about your post is that IF there was a Ps/treasury settlement and some Treasury/fhfa negotiation outcome acceptable to Ps, then all parties would want Calabria to serve out the full term, and any succeeding term, in order to "protect" the recap process.

edit:  if collins en banc is decided in favor of Ps, then you have a split in circuits and the issue of constitutionality of singe director for cause removal would need to be decided by SCOTUS...and would remain unclear if not taken up by SCOTUS.  there is a SCOTUS case being argued this fall about the Puerto Rico finance board that could go a long way to deciding issues regarding agency appointments/removal...the case does not involve single director removal for cause but its reasoning could be readable over
« Last Edit: September 01, 2019, 05:40:50 PM by cherzeca »


muscleman

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #13401 on: September 02, 2019, 11:52:44 PM »
I think the next leg down will come soon. Whenever everyone expects the stock to go one way, it usually goes the other. This time I can see everyone talking about the treasury plan after Labor Day and it should help the stock reach par, so I think there is a fairly good chance to go the other way.
I am muslceman. I have more muscle than brain!

james22

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #13402 on: September 03, 2019, 01:48:39 AM »
Are you willing to bet on that, muscleman?
BRK, BAM l SV, EM l Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac l Stable Value, Cash Value

muscleman

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #13403 on: September 03, 2019, 05:04:27 AM »
Are you willing to bet on that, muscleman?

No. I do not short stocks, and even if I do, the possible ruling from Collins may create a gap up that causes risks to be unable to control.
I am muslceman. I have more muscle than brain!

Luke 5:32

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #13404 on: September 03, 2019, 07:20:32 AM »
https://twitter.com/CGasparino/status/1168888999806722050
UPDATE on the @WhiteHouse/@USTreasury plan to reform @FannieMae
 @FreddieMac Administration pushing to release it this week but several issues are said to remain in flux that could delay. Will advise as I get more info $FNMA $FMCC
"I wait for You and my soul finds rest. In my selfishness, You show me grace..." My Hope Is In You by Aaron Shust https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ugD0i5Y3cw8

Luke 5:32

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #13405 on: September 03, 2019, 10:27:55 AM »
https://www.realvision.com/tv/shows/interviews/videos/when-geopolitics-moves-markets

13:38
ED HARRISON: When you were talking about that, I noticed you were talking about some of the inside, the beltway DC talk, and off camera, we were talking about this. You had a story where you were talking to someone in DC, which is a ghost town, I live in DC, but that he was working late at night. Give me a little sense of how that all plays out.
14:00

DAVID METZNER: It's interesting, because there's so much going on, whether on trade, mortgage finance or form with the GSEs that if I'm invited to a reception, normally, they'll really want to go home. But every time I'm out, I learned something. I'll give you an interesting GSE story. Literally I had an event, again at the Trump Hotel, nonprofit, and a senior member of the administration's economic team. I said good work on the presidential memo. That was roughly end of March.
14:32

This gentleman grabbed my arm and said, David, don't you know that POTUS wants to privatize this? I'm like, he thought he didn't say anything important to me. I was like, shocked, because privatization of Fannie and Freddie means two things. It means you have to build capital through retained earnings and you have to settle the litigation. That's what the President wants. That means all his advisors that were rumored to be fighting have to do what the President wants, and they will do it.
15:03

ED HARRISON: That's something that you had told me earlier is, is that really, this is a thing if the President wants it, he's going to get it-- forget about what all these other guys are saying?
15:13

DAVID METZNER: Absolutely. There's no dissent in the White House among these advisors. They know they worked for the President. I've known Mick Mulvaney, who's the chief of staff. He's an interesting person, because he's chief of staff acting, he's the Prime Minister of the United States, he was supposed to run the government. As you know, a budget director, he's the CFO of the United States. He could be the most powerful person in the government since Kissinger was both Secretary of State and as the advisor.
« Last Edit: September 03, 2019, 10:30:06 AM by Luke 5:32 »
"I wait for You and my soul finds rest. In my selfishness, You show me grace..." My Hope Is In You by Aaron Shust https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ugD0i5Y3cw8

orthopa

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #13406 on: September 03, 2019, 01:00:13 PM »
https://www.realvision.com/tv/shows/interviews/videos/when-geopolitics-moves-markets

13:38
ED HARRISON: When you were talking about that, I noticed you were talking about some of the inside, the beltway DC talk, and off camera, we were talking about this. You had a story where you were talking to someone in DC, which is a ghost town, I live in DC, but that he was working late at night. Give me a little sense of how that all plays out.
14:00

DAVID METZNER: It's interesting, because there's so much going on, whether on trade, mortgage finance or form with the GSEs that if I'm invited to a reception, normally, they'll really want to go home. But every time I'm out, I learned something. I'll give you an interesting GSE story. Literally I had an event, again at the Trump Hotel, nonprofit, and a senior member of the administration's economic team. I said good work on the presidential memo. That was roughly end of March.
14:32

This gentleman grabbed my arm and said, David, don't you know that POTUS wants to privatize this? I'm like, he thought he didn't say anything important to me. I was like, shocked, because privatization of Fannie and Freddie means two things. It means you have to build capital through retained earnings and you have to settle the litigation. That's what the President wants. That means all his advisors that were rumored to be fighting have to do what the President wants, and they will do it.
15:03

ED HARRISON: That's something that you had told me earlier is, is that really, this is a thing if the President wants it, he's going to get it-- forget about what all these other guys are saying?
15:13

DAVID METZNER: Absolutely. There's no dissent in the White House among these advisors. They know they worked for the President. I've known Mick Mulvaney, who's the chief of staff. He's an interesting person, because he's chief of staff acting, he's the Prime Minister of the United States, he was supposed to run the government. As you know, a budget director, he's the CFO of the United States. He could be the most powerful person in the government since Kissinger was both Secretary of State and as the advisor.

Donald Trump=John Paulson. Its soon to be payback time.

Luke 5:32

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #13407 on: September 03, 2019, 02:32:36 PM »
Housing Finance Reform: Next Steps Tuesday Sept 10th
https://www.banking.senate.gov/hearings/housing-finance-reform-next-steps

Mnuchin, Calabria, Carson
"I wait for You and my soul finds rest. In my selfishness, You show me grace..." My Hope Is In You by Aaron Shust https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ugD0i5Y3cw8

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #13408 on: September 03, 2019, 02:46:10 PM »
Housing Finance Reform: Next Steps Tuesday Sept 10th
https://www.banking.senate.gov/hearings/housing-finance-reform-next-steps

Mnuchin, Calabria, Carson

see, hear, say no evil

orthopa

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #13409 on: September 03, 2019, 03:24:28 PM »
Housing Finance Reform: Next Steps Tuesday Sept 10th
https://www.banking.senate.gov/hearings/housing-finance-reform-next-steps

Mnuchin, Calabria, Carson

Assumption would have to be that the plan is out by next Tuesday if they are going to openly discuss it correct?