Author Topic: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.  (Read 4481819 times)

orthopa

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #13720 on: September 11, 2019, 09:14:59 AM »
I know the intersection between technicals and value investing can be very blurry but for FWIW where the price levels are stuck on the preferred is where there was consolidation and a lot of trading in the price as FNMA was taken into conservatorship in 2008. This goes for nearly all the preferred looking back at most recent highs and highs in the last couple of years. Hard to believe there is still some trapped money but many maybe relieved to get out even or playing this for some reason.  A very squishly explanation I know but just saying....


muscleman

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #13721 on: September 11, 2019, 09:29:33 AM »
I know the intersection between technicals and value investing can be very blurry but for FWIW where the price levels are stuck on the preferred is where there was consolidation and a lot of trading in the price as FNMA was taken into conservatorship in 2008. This goes for nearly all the preferred looking back at most recent highs and highs in the last couple of years. Hard to believe there is still some trapped money but many maybe relieved to get out even or playing this for some reason.  A very squishly explanation I know but just saying....

Another TA expert here. People please come and have a round of tounting.  ???
Joking aside, this is why historical tops are important, but as a rule of thumb, as time passes by, more and more people give up and sell at a loss during the Christmas tax loss sell season, so the further away the prior top, the less importance it is.
I am muslceman. I have more muscle than brain!

Luke 5:32

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #13722 on: September 11, 2019, 10:14:03 AM »
« Last Edit: September 11, 2019, 10:18:16 AM by Luke 5:32 »
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DRValue

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[E]xpedience does not license omnipotence.

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DRValue

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #13724 on: September 11, 2019, 10:18:58 AM »
"Calabria today said he's "extremely hopeful" the net worth sweep will be gone by the end of the year, then "we’re probably going to have to have approximately a year of building retained earnings” before Fannie and Freddie can raise outside capital."

At that point fannie would have over $30b in capital if 10pct moment stands.
They'll likely not be critically under capitalised at that point and probably listed on the nyse.
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cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #13725 on: September 11, 2019, 10:39:14 AM »
@orthopa

why could go wrong? depending upon govt bureaucrats to do right thing. ex: ackman was dead right as a legal matter on HBL, yet FTC wimped out on relief.   the companies' businesses are rocking, but we still need some govt guys to do the right thing....they are talking the right thing, but that is not enough

Luke 5:32

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #13726 on: September 11, 2019, 11:16:13 AM »
David Thompson (paraphrased): "We have significant settlement leverage and the defendant has incentive to settle for reasons of recapitalizing the companies."
The Atheist Delusion, watch here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ChWiZ3iXWwM

Luke 5:32

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #13727 on: September 11, 2019, 11:40:49 AM »
This guy has been posting detailed notes throughout the call for those that missed it: https://twitter.com/HoldenWalker99
The Atheist Delusion, watch here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ChWiZ3iXWwM

Luke 5:32

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #13728 on: September 11, 2019, 12:00:19 PM »
I'd have to verify this when the transcript or recorded call is posted.  Might be the case where he left the word "if" off the front of the quote or something like that.

https://twitter.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1171856144828178432
.@_InvestorsUnite CC w/ @timpagliara & Collins Ps attorney David Thompson, Q&A: "there's going to be a settlement... we want to do something consistent with the Treasury plan," better to do it now than in a year $FNMA $FMCC
The Atheist Delusion, watch here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ChWiZ3iXWwM

orthopa

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #13729 on: September 11, 2019, 12:07:54 PM »
"Calabria today said he's "extremely hopeful" the net worth sweep will be gone by the end of the year, then "we’re probably going to have to have approximately a year of building retained earnings” before Fannie and Freddie can raise outside capital."

At that point fannie would have over $30b in capital if 10pct moment stands.
They'll likely not be critically under capitalised at that point and probably listed on the nyse.

Where was that from today?