Author Topic: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.  (Read 3730137 times)

Luke 5:32

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #14250 on: November 15, 2019, 12:35:40 PM »
In the last month we have seen 2 "political" investments blow up in investors face. First PCG, now Intelsat (down over 50% in 3 days). The distressed / credit investor crowd has been involved in all 3 of these situations all year. It isnt rocket science to figure out why the GSEs PFDs have been getting smoked during the same week as the Intelsat blow up. The shareholder overlap is enormous and after 2 political blowups they are de-risking and taking one of their only winners for the year (GSEs) off the table. There is a reason PFDs are down almost 2x as much as common in the last few days as most of these funds are weighted towards the PFDs. Calabria being wishy washy on timing only adds salt to the wound at this point.

Check out the share price performance of the PFDs during the week of the PCG blow up as well.

All the more reason to discount recent price action in the GSE prefs.

Allnatural nailed it!  Well done!
A wise husband, a wise father, asks God for help. Don't be a prideful, self-reliant fool. "Father, lead me, 'cause I can't do this alone..." Lead Me by Sanctus Real: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLr6G8Xy5uc
"Life will rise, death will die..." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_uJYKoHhQo


SnarkyPuppy

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #14251 on: November 15, 2019, 12:44:37 PM »
The clown is probably getting his “scoop” from this thread

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #14252 on: November 15, 2019, 01:25:09 PM »
great recent posting all!

Luke, did Todd take these notes or are they notes written by some other party that Todd got hold of?

edit:  and who is autonomous?
« Last Edit: November 15, 2019, 01:29:02 PM by cherzeca »

allnatural

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Midas79

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #14254 on: November 15, 2019, 01:58:46 PM »
I agree with cherzeca, there have been many other great quality posts recently. Thank you to everyone for those.

« Last Edit: November 15, 2019, 08:08:56 PM by Midas79 »

allnatural

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #14255 on: November 15, 2019, 02:08:05 PM »
Craig Phillips back in the spot light! He is a keynote speaker next week to talk housing reform...

https://nextdc19.splashthat.com/

"Keynote Speaker: Craig Philips
09:00 AM  09:45 AM

What to Expect from Treasury's Housing Plans and Nonbank Financials, Fintech and Innovation"
« Last Edit: November 15, 2019, 03:40:36 PM by allnatural »

asterisk

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #14256 on: November 15, 2019, 02:21:59 PM »
Craig Phillips back in the spot light! maybe there is some truth to Todd's post. He is a keynote speaker next week to talk housing reform...

https://nextdc19.splashthat.com/

"Keynote Speaker: Craig Philips
09:00 AM  09:45 AM

What to Expect from Treasury's Housing Plans and Nonbank Financials, Fintech and Innovation"

Are officials like Philips subject to any NDA or are they barred from speaking about their work for a period of time? It is interesting that he is speaking out now. Maybe it is because he was relaxing or maybe not...

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #14257 on: November 15, 2019, 02:47:33 PM »
the best info is the info that needs to be deleted

allnatural

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SnarkyPuppy

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #14259 on: November 16, 2019, 09:36:06 AM »
Just had some thoughts - curious to hear if there's something missing in the below logic-

Is it not beneficial to us for them to hold off on modifying the SPSA for as long as possible?   The future SPSA amendment (if done in one shot) will likely eliminate the outstanding liquidation preference ending the net worth sweep, but it will also introduce a periodic commitment fee for the existing explicit backstop.   

Said another way, $x of earnings today go to building capital. Once the commitment fee is introduced for some amount $y, incremental capital build will be = $x minus $y, effectively slowing down the speed of building capital.

Of course, the liquidation preference today is being increases 1 for 1 with $x, but if I understand correctly we've actually surpassed the "10% moment", so there is room for further increases in liquidation preference while remaining above the "10% moment".   In fact, if you have the exact math behind how the administration is calculating the 10% moment, you can probably back into the timing of the SPSA amendment we're all looking forward to.