Author Topic: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.  (Read 3732979 times)

cherzeca

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2456
Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #14300 on: November 19, 2019, 03:16:08 PM »
there are a lot of issues at play, legal, finance, govtal/regulatory policy, valuation, etc.  so we have a system of multiple variables and, as usual with such systems, nonlinear rationality. if you step back a step you will see that nothing has happened today (except perhaps in Sweeney's courtroom...we await the mp3). and so a price drop is welcome if you have more to allocate to the name.  if you are fully invested in name, then nothing happened today.  and as Luke intimates, anything can happen at anytime. though I am betting later rather than sooner


TonyG

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 127
Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #14301 on: November 19, 2019, 03:29:21 PM »
I promised myself that I would stay at the position level I was at for the rest of this trade but man is it ever tempting

cherzeca

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2456
Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #14302 on: November 19, 2019, 04:06:56 PM »
I promised myself that I would stay at the position level I was at for the rest of this trade but man is it ever tempting

there is far more uncertainty than risk here...meaning you can try to measure variables (risk), but there is a lot of unpredictable resistant to measurement (uncertainty).  so it is wise to limit exposure to something tolerable in the event of loss.  to really abstract at 30,000 feet however, we learned what happened when the banks all went to single digits in GFC....they retraced back up because they were essential.  in 2017-202(3?), I expect the same thing will happen to GSEs, which are also essential and, finally, we have govtal actors who understand that they are (as opposed to the Obama/corker fools).  but this is a long game, which is why I resisted investorG and his short term inquiry.  if you cant play the long game (for whatever reason) then this is the wrong game. and while calabria gives too many talks and is too slow, doing a recalibration of the capital rule with a financial advisor on board makes a whole lot of sense

Midas79

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 556
Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #14303 on: November 19, 2019, 04:21:22 PM »
and while calabria gives too many talks and is too slow, doing a recalibration of the capital rule with a financial advisor on board makes a whole lot of sense

Has FHFA hired its financial advisor yet?

cherzeca

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2456
Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #14304 on: November 19, 2019, 04:30:11 PM »
and while calabria gives too many talks and is too slow, doing a recalibration of the capital rule with a financial advisor on board makes a whole lot of sense

Has FHFA hired its financial advisor yet?

I have been looking for announcement since I am curious, but haven't seen it...should be soon

investorG

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 720
Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #14305 on: November 20, 2019, 04:40:33 AM »
For those still excited about the near term outlook -- what specific catalyst do you see? 

The catalyst I see is the only one that really matters to pref holders: settlement.  Can happen at any moment without warning.

Thanks, Luke.  Sure, it's possible.  But not likely over the near term.   First, there's waiting for the SC ruling on whether it takes Collins.  Second, why slow play the capital rule finalization (post comments) until 2h 2020+ if you intend to settle in 1h 2020?   Calabria's more talented than taking 15 months from his start to get the capital rule in place -- it's clear to me that he's been told to slow play. 

Trump probably sided with the Kudlow and political wing during the summer.  I'm guessing Calabria is sympathetic to us and has tried to soften the timing delay announcements over the past 2 weeks by a) including consent decree statement last week and b) scheduling the capital rule disappointment on same day of what he perhaps hoped was a good day with Sweeney. 

Our response due to the SC in Collins next Friday should be interesting.  I wonder if our lawyers have tilted towards the higher risk higher potential reward outcome of directly or indirectly asking the SC to take the APA (and constitutional).

SnarkyPuppy

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 838
Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #14306 on: November 20, 2019, 04:55:40 AM »
For those still excited about the near term outlook -- what specific catalyst do you see? 

The catalyst I see is the only one that really matters to pref holders: settlement.  Can happen at any moment without warning.

Thanks, Luke.  Sure, it's possible.  But not likely over the near term.   First, there's waiting for the SC ruling on whether it takes Collins.  Second, why slow play the capital rule finalization (post comments) until 2h 2020+ if you intend to settle in 1h 2020?   Calabria's more talented than taking 15 months from his start to get the capital rule in place -- it's clear to me that he's been told to slow play. 

Trump probably sided with the Kudlow and political wing during the summer.  I'm guessing Calabria is sympathetic to us and has tried to soften the timing delay announcements over the past 2 weeks by a) including consent decree statement last week and b) scheduling the capital rule disappointment on same day of what he perhaps hoped was a good day with Sweeney. 

Our response due to the SC in Collins next Friday should be interesting.  I wonder if our lawyers have tilted towards the higher risk higher potential reward outcome of directly or indirectly asking the SC to take the APA (and constitutional).

Can you help me understand why any of this matters in the end?  Maybe it gets addressed in 2021 instead of 2020.  Has anything about the end game changed?  Maybe Iím missing something.  Obviously sooner the better but the IRR at current prices is attractive under essentially any timeline. 

The only tangible risk of delay that seems reasonable to me is the passage of time increases a risk of an acute downturn in credit markets which impacts IPO process

allnatural

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 283
Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #14307 on: November 20, 2019, 05:24:26 AM »
Bloomberg analyst attended the Sweeney hearing yesterday. He thinks shareholders are favored and the case will most likely proceed on multiple claims (flipped his view from last time) and we could see a ruling as soon as year end as Sweeney said she already had a draft ruling ready. https://m.imgur.com/a/ek0S9Q8

Luke 5:32

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2652
Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #14308 on: November 20, 2019, 05:26:50 AM »
For those still excited about the near term outlook -- what specific catalyst do you see? 

The catalyst I see is the only one that really matters to pref holders: settlement.  Can happen at any moment without warning.

Thanks, Luke.  Sure, it's possible.  But not likely over the near term.   First, there's waiting for the SC ruling on whether it takes Collins.  Second, why slow play the capital rule finalization (post comments) until 2h 2020+ if you intend to settle in 1h 2020?   Calabria's more talented than taking 15 months from his start to get the capital rule in place -- it's clear to me that he's been told to slow play. 

Trump probably sided with the Kudlow and political wing during the summer.  I'm guessing Calabria is sympathetic to us and has tried to soften the timing delay announcements over the past 2 weeks by a) including consent decree statement last week and b) scheduling the capital rule disappointment on same day of what he perhaps hoped was a good day with Sweeney. 

Our response due to the SC in Collins next Friday should be interesting.  I wonder if our lawyers have tilted towards the higher risk higher potential reward outcome of directly or indirectly asking the SC to take the APA (and constitutional).

Settlement doesn't have to wait for anything else to happen. There are no prerequisites to a settlement. It can happen at any moment.
A wise husband, a wise father, asks God for help. Don't be a prideful, self-reliant fool. "Father, lead me, 'cause I can't do this alone..." Lead Me by Sanctus Real: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLr6G8Xy5uc
"Life will rise, death will die..." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_uJYKoHhQo

Luke 5:32

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2652
Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #14309 on: November 20, 2019, 05:35:18 AM »
The only tangible risk of delay that seems reasonable to me is the passage of time increases a risk of an acute downturn in credit markets which impacts IPO process

I'd love to hear responses to this as I have a very similar viewpoint to Snarky.
A wise husband, a wise father, asks God for help. Don't be a prideful, self-reliant fool. "Father, lead me, 'cause I can't do this alone..." Lead Me by Sanctus Real: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLr6G8Xy5uc
"Life will rise, death will die..." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_uJYKoHhQo