Author Topic: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.  (Read 4644627 times)

investorG

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #15550 on: May 26, 2020, 05:58:06 AM »
Wow, Calabria managed to upset even bank-centric Don Layton with the magnitude of his disastrous excessive capital requirements.

Meanwhile, mortgage credit has tightened -- hurting Trump's re-election chances and likely his own job in 8 months.

Smart guy, but he's screwing American citizens.  Capital of many multiples of the stress losses = higher mortgage rates and fatter bank profits. 


cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #15551 on: May 26, 2020, 08:24:44 AM »
it is one thing for Layton to write a blog piece, and quite another to say the same thing in a public proposed rule comment.  my bet is that he putzes out

Covid-19_Survivor

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #15552 on: May 26, 2020, 07:34:23 PM »
Wow, Calabria managed to upset even bank-centric Don Layton with the magnitude of his disastrous excessive capital requirements.

Meanwhile, mortgage credit has tightened -- hurting Trump's re-election chances and likely his own job in 8 months.

Smart guy, but he's screwing American citizens.  Capital of many multiples of the stress losses = higher mortgage rates and fatter bank profits.

Dude, read the tea leaves. the numbers demanded mean one thing, and one thing only: The explicit guarantee is done with (and maybe that's why everything has been delayed, delayed, delayed. The principles involved realized that Congress was not going to bite on backstop so... new plan). I for one will gladly take a hit on ownership (~150 bil of new money) if it also means govt doesn't have us by the cajoles anymore, or at least would treat us like a tbtf bank.

I'm not sure how the market reacts once this becomes known but I'll stick around. I like it.

Luke 5:32

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The Atheist Delusion, watch here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ChWiZ3iXWwM

Cox022

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #15554 on: May 27, 2020, 06:56:44 AM »
Jamie Dimon yesterday on forbearance:

      ○ 1/3 of people who ask for it, never actually use it
      ○ I suspect a lot of people who did use it are doing so as a safety precaution
      ○ My hope would be, as we see first people coming off forbearance, that the people who start repaying is higher than people think, not lower
          This by the way gives them a chance to do a re-fi, which could be really smart for them in certain cases
      ○ We will start to see the first cohort of people coming off of forbearance in June
      ○ In the old days, it was a danger that once you stopped paying your mortgage, you never started again
          But remember last time around, home prices were down 40%, there was a good reason not to pay, you weren't going to lose any equity value in your home, whereas today, its the opposite,
                           there are very few people underwater in their homes today

investorG

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #15555 on: May 27, 2020, 07:59:18 AM »
Howard's latest...
https://howardonmortgagefinance.com/2020/05/27/now-we-know/

Calabria is a hero to his think tank buddies.  Meanwhile middle class Americans must send more of their wages to mortgages (or apt landlords if they are shut out).    The arbitrary and excessive buffer amount will likely turn into a political football with changes coming under every administration (assuming Seila's outcome is as expected).  I can guess who Mr. Tim Howard is rooting for in 5 months.

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #15556 on: May 27, 2020, 08:38:18 AM »
I thought this was a very good comment on the proposed capital rule:  https://www.fhfa.gov//SupervisionRegulation/Rules/Pages/Comment-Detail.aspx?CommentId=15531

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #15557 on: May 27, 2020, 08:39:50 AM »
Howard's latest...
https://howardonmortgagefinance.com/2020/05/27/now-we-know/

Calabria is a hero to his think tank buddies.  Meanwhile middle class Americans must send more of their wages to mortgages (or apt landlords if they are shut out).    The arbitrary and excessive buffer amount will likely turn into a political football with changes coming under every administration (assuming Seila's outcome is as expected).  I can guess who Mr. Tim Howard is rooting for in 5 months.

while my preference is for the trump administration to carry through on its "plan" for the next 4 years, I am beginning to see the silver lining of a Biden administration.

DocSnowball

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #15558 on: May 27, 2020, 08:48:56 AM »
Howard's latest...
https://howardonmortgagefinance.com/2020/05/27/now-we-know/

Calabria is a hero to his think tank buddies.  Meanwhile middle class Americans must send more of their wages to mortgages (or apt landlords if they are shut out).    The arbitrary and excessive buffer amount will likely turn into a political football with changes coming under every administration (assuming Seila's outcome is as expected).  I can guess who Mr. Tim Howard is rooting for in 5 months.

while my preference is for the trump administration to carry through on its "plan" for the next 4 years, I am beginning to see the silver lining of a Biden administration.

I think the key question is still whether this is a binary investment in either admin? At this point, and after the companies hire financial advisors, that risk is getting lower and lower. How much the preferreds will be worth in the end is in the "too hard" or uncertain pile, but they will be worth much more than they are at present as long as the companies are recapitalized. If the companies are recapitalized, it seems just too unlikely to me that a financial and legal advisor will take the risk of recommending something that invites even more lawsuits. More likely they will suggest something that is CYA and placates all sides that are willing to be placated.

Midas79

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #15559 on: May 27, 2020, 09:20:08 AM »
I thought this was a very good comment on the proposed capital rule:  https://www.fhfa.gov//SupervisionRegulation/Rules/Pages/Comment-Detail.aspx?CommentId=15531

Well done. I especially like the implication that FHFA's mandates extend to making sure the recap actually happens rather than paying lip service to it.