Author Topic: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.  (Read 4278884 times)

investorG

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #15740 on: June 30, 2020, 10:39:45 AM »
@IG

scotus could just decline cert on const claim, which would leave collins en banc in place, and leave the NWS intact at least insofar as that claim is concerned.  I dont expect that.  since there is a conflict split on the APA claim, I dont see scotus denying cert on that, but it may decline to act pending what happens to the const claim.  same remedy requested, so let's finish one claim at a time, in essence.  if GVRs const claim, then that might mean two things in my mind...one let 5th C confirm that fhfa=cfpb in terms of the removal issue, and second reconsider remedy.  but the GVR vacates prior const claim decision, and remand means do the claim over

Thanks.  While they can do what they want it makes little sense to GVR to re-address something both the SC (5-4) and 5th circuit (12-4) agree on - that the agency is unconstitutional.  If they GVR, it's probably over remedy and likely quite bullish.  However I expect them to take on the APA claim and decline the constitutional one.

while I think fhfa=cfpb, that is something that scotus would want 5th C to confirm.  in essence, 5th C ruled on removal issue before having scotus guidance.  now that the scotus opinion has been written, you can have another go at it.  fhfa has already announced that fhfa=/=cfpb, so it is a live issue, even though I think fhfa loses that argument. but yes, if GVR, then that might mean that scotus thinks 5th C should have another go at the remedy.

no offense but that's a waste of time because the en banc already ruled 12-4 that it's the same situation as CFPB.   

There was nothing in the Seila ruling that I could tell that would suggest to 4 or 5 of the 5th circuit en banc judges who already ruled FHFA unconstitutional to change their mind and say wait a minute, FHFA is actually a lot different than CFPB and legit.

If the SC wants to differentiate between FHFA and CFPB, then they can take the collins constitutional appeal themselves on Thursday.   If they GVR it, should be for remedy.   If they decline it, they agree with the 5th circuit conclusion on the (lack of) constitutionality and remedy.


cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #15741 on: June 30, 2020, 01:53:18 PM »
"no offense but that's a waste of time because the en banc already ruled 12-4 that it's the same situation as CFPB."

this is what you dont get.  before scotus ruled, 5thC was just doing its best somewhat in the dark without scotus guidance...did a great job as per Willett.  now that scotus has ruled, 5th C can rule in the reflected illumination of scotus guidance...and there is enough of a difference between the two agencies for the 5th C exercise to be meaningful (eg fhfa doesnt directly deal with "private parties", just a few institutions, while cfpb deals with consumers all the time)...though fhfa will lose.

"If the SC wants to differentiate between FHFA and CFPB, then they can take the collins constitutional appeal themselves on Thursday."  too much on scotus calendar.  let the 5th C do that work.  that's how appellate practice works. we will see if scotus says anything about the petition or just renders an order

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #15742 on: June 30, 2020, 01:55:53 PM »
5MM share buy of fnmas today at high for the day.  someone gets it.

investorG

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #15743 on: June 30, 2020, 02:18:08 PM »
"no offense but that's a waste of time because the en banc already ruled 12-4 that it's the same situation as CFPB."

this is what you dont get.  before scotus ruled, 5thC was just doing its best somewhat in the dark without scotus guidance...did a great job as per Willett.  now that scotus has ruled, 5th C can rule in the reflected illumination of scotus guidance...and there is enough of a difference between the two agencies for the 5th C exercise to be meaningful (eg fhfa doesnt directly deal with "private parties", just a few institutions, while cfpb deals with consumers all the time)...though fhfa will lose.

"If the SC wants to differentiate between FHFA and CFPB, then they can take the collins constitutional appeal themselves on Thursday."  too much on scotus calendar.  let the 5th C do that work.  that's how appellate practice works. we will see if scotus says anything about the petition or just renders an order

Ok fine but I disagree.  A meaningful stretch to say there's a big difference between FHFA / CFPB to reverse any votes from the 5th circuit on constitutionality in light of the good but simple analysis Roberts wrote in his opinion.   And regarding the Supreme Court's busyness, Collins is a major case.  Squeeze out some others if they think FHFA is materially different than CFPB (which they likely won't).  Especially bc they will probably take the APA case.

Midas79

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #15744 on: June 30, 2020, 03:07:58 PM »
"no offense but that's a waste of time because the en banc already ruled 12-4 that it's the same situation as CFPB."

this is what you dont get.  before scotus ruled, 5thC was just doing its best somewhat in the dark without scotus guidance...did a great job as per Willett.  now that scotus has ruled, 5th C can rule in the reflected illumination of scotus guidance...and there is enough of a difference between the two agencies for the 5th C exercise to be meaningful (eg fhfa doesnt directly deal with "private parties", just a few institutions, while cfpb deals with consumers all the time)...though fhfa will lose.

"If the SC wants to differentiate between FHFA and CFPB, then they can take the collins constitutional appeal themselves on Thursday."  too much on scotus calendar.  let the 5th C do that work.  that's how appellate practice works. we will see if scotus says anything about the petition or just renders an order

Just to make sure I'm understanding things correctly:

If SCOTUS decides to take the GVR route for Collins, the Fifth Circuit would have to re-decide Collins using Selia as guidance. Until they do, Calabria can only be fired for cause. Since that decision could take a while, Calabria really could stay in office under Biden, maybe even long enough to get recap and release done, as long as he doesn't do anything stupid enough to get fired for cause.

Then all we really need is for Mnuchin to get UST's part out of the way before the end of January. Cancel/convert seniors, PSPA amendment (end the NWS, remove UST's ability to veto release, plus whatever else they need to do), exercise/cancel/sell back warrants, and settle/moot the cases.

I know you have said all this before, I just want to see if I am putting the pieces together correctly.

Three questions:

1) How long do you think it would take before the Fifth Circuit issues another decision?
2) Could Biden fire Calabria the day after that happens or would he have to wait until SCOTUS either denies cert or upholds the ruling?
3) Is anything missing from my list of what UST needs to do?

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #15745 on: June 30, 2020, 03:58:26 PM »
"no offense but that's a waste of time because the en banc already ruled 12-4 that it's the same situation as CFPB."

this is what you dont get.  before scotus ruled, 5thC was just doing its best somewhat in the dark without scotus guidance...did a great job as per Willett.  now that scotus has ruled, 5th C can rule in the reflected illumination of scotus guidance...and there is enough of a difference between the two agencies for the 5th C exercise to be meaningful (eg fhfa doesnt directly deal with "private parties", just a few institutions, while cfpb deals with consumers all the time)...though fhfa will lose.

"If the SC wants to differentiate between FHFA and CFPB, then they can take the collins constitutional appeal themselves on Thursday."  too much on scotus calendar.  let the 5th C do that work.  that's how appellate practice works. we will see if scotus says anything about the petition or just renders an order

Just to make sure I'm understanding things correctly:

If SCOTUS decides to take the GVR route for Collins, the Fifth Circuit would have to re-decide Collins using Selia as guidance. Until they do, Calabria can only be fired for cause. Since that decision could take a while, Calabria really could stay in office under Biden, maybe even long enough to get recap and release done, as long as he doesn't do anything stupid enough to get fired for cause.

Then all we really need is for Mnuchin to get UST's part out of the way before the end of January. Cancel/convert seniors, PSPA amendment (end the NWS, remove UST's ability to veto release, plus whatever else they need to do), exercise/cancel/sell back warrants, and settle/moot the cases.

I know you have said all this before, I just want to see if I am putting the pieces together correctly.

Three questions:

1) How long do you think it would take before the Fifth Circuit issues another decision?
2) Could Biden fire Calabria the day after that happens or would he have to wait until SCOTUS either denies cert or upholds the ruling?
3) Is anything missing from my list of what UST needs to do?

midas, you are sailing true.

until 5th C decides on a (what I expect to be a) scotus GVR (and any cert petition has been denied after 5th C briefing, oral arg and decision), Calabria is fireable with cause only.  a biden potus will of course fire at will if it wants to but Calabria can say up yours until a court decision with no further appeal.  squatters' rights.  how long after any GVR? 6 months? one year?  you have seen how these cases creep along calendars.  as to UST, the sticking point would be a settlement. that may take some time...a deal with fhfa wont take time.

emily

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #15746 on: June 30, 2020, 08:08:26 PM »
“Fired for a cause is such a subjective thing. It can be a made up cause. He can be fired for a made up cause on day 1, he can keep shouting and fight in court for years and by the time GSE’s will be finished as we know. Don’t even go there”

"no offense but that's a waste of time because the en banc already ruled 12-4 that it's the same situation as CFPB."

this is what you dont get.  before scotus ruled, 5thC was just doing its best somewhat in the dark without scotus guidance...did a great job as per Willett.  now that scotus has ruled, 5th C can rule in the reflected illumination of scotus guidance...and there is enough of a difference between the two agencies for the 5th C exercise to be meaningful (eg fhfa doesnt directly deal with "private parties", just a few institutions, while cfpb deals with consumers all the time)...though fhfa will lose.

"If the SC wants to differentiate between FHFA and CFPB, then they can take the collins constitutional appeal themselves on Thursday."  too much on scotus calendar.  let the 5th C do that work.  that's how appellate practice works. we will see if scotus says anything about the petition or just renders an order

Just to make sure I'm understanding things correctly:

If SCOTUS decides to take the GVR route for Collins, the Fifth Circuit would have to re-decide Collins using Selia as guidance. Until they do, Calabria can only be fired for cause. Since that decision could take a while, Calabria really could stay in office under Biden, maybe even long enough to get recap and release done, as long as he doesn't do anything stupid enough to get fired for cause.

Then all we really need is for Mnuchin to get UST's part out of the way before the end of January. Cancel/convert seniors, PSPA amendment (end the NWS, remove UST's ability to veto release, plus whatever else they need to do), exercise/cancel/sell back warrants, and settle/moot the cases.

I know you have said all this before, I just want to see if I am putting the pieces together correctly.

Three questions:

1) How long do you think it would take before the Fifth Circuit issues another decision?
2) Could Biden fire Calabria the day after that happens or would he have to wait until SCOTUS either denies cert or upholds the ruling?
3) Is anything missing from my list of what UST needs to do?

midas, you are sailing true.

until 5th C decides on a (what I expect to be a) scotus GVR (and any cert petition has been denied after 5th C briefing, oral arg and decision), Calabria is fireable with cause only.  a biden potus will of course fire at will if it wants to but Calabria can say up yours until a court decision with no further appeal.  squatters' rights.  how long after any GVR? 6 months? one year?  you have seen how these cases creep along calendars.  as to UST, the sticking point would be a settlement. that may take some time...a deal with fhfa wont take time.

emily

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #15747 on: June 30, 2020, 08:15:37 PM »
“It cannot be GVR tomorrow/thursday. Took me bit of time to understand, I thought it meant GSE Venezuela Ripoff”

emily

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #15748 on: July 01, 2020, 08:28:14 AM »
“Mark is about to get nixed. He is better off hanging out with his best buddies ie. Fellow travelers. Told ya! He doesn’t understand a shit.
https://mobile.twitter.com/JoshRosner/status/1278332742334373888

Midas79

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #15749 on: July 01, 2020, 08:48:13 AM »
midas, you are sailing true.

until 5th C decides on a (what I expect to be a) scotus GVR (and any cert petition has been denied after 5th C briefing, oral arg and decision), Calabria is fireable with cause only.  a biden potus will of course fire at will if it wants to but Calabria can say up yours until a court decision with no further appeal.  squatters' rights.  how long after any GVR? 6 months? one year?  you have seen how these cases creep along calendars.  as to UST, the sticking point would be a settlement. that may take some time...a deal with fhfa wont take time.

Thanks for the confirmation and clarification.

If SCOTUS delays taking up Collins, i.e. neither denies nor grants cert and just pushes consideration into next year, that just extends Calabria's time in office under Biden, right? Is this likely at all?