Author Topic: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.  (Read 4363761 times)

orthopa

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #15760 on: July 02, 2020, 03:44:49 PM »
I don t have access to am banker but if any deal settling the senior prefs and exiting into consent decree involves the GSEs and cant be amended or terminated without all parties consent then you can imagine a flight path that cant be changed

At that point since all parties would have to agree the GSEs largest or majority shareholders would have say since the GSEs would be out of conservatorship correct?


cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #15761 on: July 02, 2020, 03:50:28 PM »
I don t have access to am banker but if any deal settling the senior prefs and exiting into consent decree involves the GSEs and cant be amended or terminated without all parties consent then you can imagine a flight path that cant be changed

At that point since all parties would have to agree the GSEs largest or majority shareholders would have say since the GSEs would be out of conservatorship correct?

right.  you have to believe the GSEs would like to get right for once and all

Midas79

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #15762 on: July 08, 2020, 08:53:21 AM »
Someone in the Twitter chat asked what we thought the chances were of SCOTUS just straight up overturning the NWS rather than just denying cert on the APA claims or upholding the Fifth's decision to remand that claim. Here is a repost of my response:

Quote
Until recently i would have said 1% also, if not less.
Now i'm no legal expert, but there is a distinct circuit split over the APA claims against the NWS, as to whether it was ultra vires or not. the Fifth said it was, all others said it wasn't. I don't think remand solves that.

So i'm gonna go with 5% that SCOTUS actually overturns the NWS because there has already been a split.

I thought for a while that SCOTUS would just not touch it, let the Fifth's decision to remand the APA claims back down to Atlas stand, and wait for that decision to come back up the pipeline before deciding (this is my base case, 95% chance).

But the Fifth's wording leaves no wiggle room for Atlas to deny the APA claims, so SCOTUS might not think it worth waiting for something they know is coming.

Is this line of thinking valid or have I made a mistake somewhere?

I suppose I haven't accounted for the possibility that SCOTUS overturns the Fifth majority's APA claim decision, which would solve the circuit split in the other direction (a final ruling that the NWS is not ultra vires). That's a chilling possibility.

DRValue

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #15763 on: July 08, 2020, 08:57:25 AM »
Is it easier for SCOTUS to do nothing this term and see if a settlement takes place?
[E]xpedience does not license omnipotence.

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cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #15764 on: July 08, 2020, 10:04:51 AM »
@midas

my 2 cents...the const claim will be GVRed back to 5th C, with typical language saying redo case in light of Seila.  leaving up to 5th C to i) determine whether fhfa=cfpb, and ii) provide backward relief (unless it can distinguish NWS from CID...courts do the damnedest things).

I dont know about APA claim...I expect it will remain in suspension at scotus until const claim is sorted out since Ps seek same relief from both.

investorG

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #15765 on: July 08, 2020, 03:29:26 PM »
Is it easier for SCOTUS to do nothing this term and see if a settlement takes place?

Possible but unlikely.  The collins case appeared on the conference distribution list for a 3rd time today.   I'll stick with a prediction of Yes on the ACA (split circuits and cleanest approach) and No on the constitutional (to avoid dangling calabria's status for a year plus). 

Good luck everyone.

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #15766 on: July 08, 2020, 05:48:02 PM »
Is it easier for SCOTUS to do nothing this term and see if a settlement takes place?

Possible but unlikely.  The collins case appeared on the conference distribution list for a 3rd time today.   I'll stick with a prediction of Yes on the ACA (split circuits and cleanest approach) and No on the constitutional (to avoid dangling calabria's status for a year plus). 

Good luck everyone.

GVR on const; no action on APA.  what you betting IG?

SnarkyPuppy

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #15767 on: July 09, 2020, 11:03:01 AM »
Cert granted

emily

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #15768 on: July 09, 2020, 11:04:39 AM »
"Granted as expected. No GVR"

“It cannot be GVR tomorrow/thursday. Took me bit of time to understand, I thought it meant GSE Venezuela Ripoff”

DRValue

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #15769 on: July 09, 2020, 11:46:30 AM »
So we buy the inevitable dips right?
[E]xpedience does not license omnipotence.

Not Investment Advice. Do Your Own Research.