Author Topic: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.  (Read 5100283 times)

Luke 5:32

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #15960 on: September 25, 2020, 07:38:42 AM »

Open question for the floor. Why isnt there a 100% chance the PSPA isnt done by inauguration day?

I have reason to believe she is actually much more confident than her publicly stated 80% chance, but I'm not at liberty to discuss details of that belief here in this forum.
"Way maker, miracle worker, promise keeper..."  God is a promise keeper. You can rest in the hope and assurance that He is true to His word.  But it is also a warning that He will keep His promises to those that choose a life of unrepentant sin. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XCpbeVFgs4E


cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #15961 on: September 25, 2020, 08:13:21 AM »
here's how I think about it.  right now, govt's litigation strategy is 180 degrees opposite of its policy position.  continuing to litigate makes no sense if you want to implement policy of recapping GSEs. now, adopting that strategy took a lot of fortitude because many in congress oppose, but the administration held firm, and those opposing in congress have largely moved on to other sound bite opportunities.  but why continue to litigate if it is at odds with policy, now that congress is off the GSEs?

so the reason must be govt wants some form of political cover, together with the Goldman Sachs theory that you don't act until you have to, because different and better options may arise. Mnuchin was born and bred at Goldman.

now, what happens if Biden wins? my guess is that the wait for political cover will be over...in essence, letting Biden appoint Ds to DOJ/FHFA and have Parrott back holding the housing reins is political cover enough for Mnuchin/Calabria to act before inauguration to prevent this.  this is DC actor speculation, which ACG should know better than I do, but that is how this scenario makes sense to me.
« Last Edit: September 25, 2020, 11:19:04 AM by cherzeca »

orthopa

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #15962 on: September 25, 2020, 11:03:16 AM »
From the IMF rag apparently FSOC voted unanmously to support FHFAs reproposed capital framework. How can FSOC approve it if it isnt finalized (or is it and we are just in a waiting game as assumed).

Apparently FSOC thinks the capital rules are not strict enough. Not sure how much of a blessing this was but glad there was no opposition.

SnarkyPuppy

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #15963 on: September 25, 2020, 11:14:30 AM »
Are there any controls in place within the US government that restrict the incumbent from implementing laws subsequent to an election but before removal at inauguration that could potentially impact any contracts signed between UST and FHFA? 

Said another way, in the event Biden wins - are there any arguments to be made that PSPA amendments made during a "lame duck" period can be revoked?

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #15964 on: September 25, 2020, 11:21:39 AM »
Are there any controls in place within the US government that restrict the incumbent from implementing laws subsequent to an election but before removal at inauguration that could potentially impact any contracts signed between UST and FHFA? 

Said another way, in the event Biden wins - are there any arguments to be made that PSPA amendments made during a "lame duck" period can be revoked?

same story as filing RBG's seat.  if you have the power to do it, then you have the power to do it even if with hindsight that power wasn't for too much longer

orthopa

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #15965 on: September 25, 2020, 03:56:50 PM »
Based on the prepared statements of Calabria and FSOCs recomendations it doesnt appear the proposal capital levels are going to budge much if at all. Not a whole lot of tea reading other then Calabria saying the rule will be finalized in the coming months.


https://www.fhfa.gov/Media/PublicAffairs/Pages/Prepared-Remarks-of-Dr-Mark-A-Calabria-Director-of-FHFA-at-FSOC-Principals-Meeting-9-25-2020.aspx

https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/261/Financial-Stability-Oversight-Councils-Statement-on-Secondary-Mortgage-Market-Activities.pdf

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #15966 on: September 25, 2020, 04:52:29 PM »
Based on the prepared statements of Calabria and FSOCs recomendations it doesnt appear the proposal capital levels are going to budge much if at all. Not a whole lot of tea reading other then Calabria saying the rule will be finalized in the coming months.


https://www.fhfa.gov/Media/PublicAffairs/Pages/Prepared-Remarks-of-Dr-Mark-A-Calabria-Director-of-FHFA-at-FSOC-Principals-Meeting-9-25-2020.aspx

https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/261/Financial-Stability-Oversight-Councils-Statement-on-Secondary-Mortgage-Market-Activities.pdf

agree. only hope I have is that there is a phasing in that permits GSEs to raise capital in a deliberate manner and without unreasonable conditions for dividends and exec bonuses

Luke 5:32

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #15967 on: September 26, 2020, 06:26:57 AM »
Hmmm, interesting tweet from ACG...

https://twitter.com/ACGAnalytics/status/1309598464674869249
Full remarks from @MarkCalabria at #FSOC. Says they found adequate capital could be materially less:
"Way maker, miracle worker, promise keeper..."  God is a promise keeper. You can rest in the hope and assurance that He is true to His word.  But it is also a warning that He will keep His promises to those that choose a life of unrepentant sin. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XCpbeVFgs4E

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #15968 on: September 26, 2020, 07:59:04 AM »
Hmmm, interesting tweet from ACG...

https://twitter.com/ACGAnalytics/status/1309598464674869249
Full remarks from @MarkCalabria at #FSOC. Says they found adequate capital could be materially less:

I don't see this in Calabria's remarks.  looks to me like a whoopsie

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #15969 on: September 26, 2020, 08:04:19 AM »
Hmmm, interesting tweet from ACG...

https://twitter.com/ACGAnalytics/status/1309598464674869249
Full remarks from @MarkCalabria at #FSOC. Says they found adequate capital could be materially less:

I don't see this in Calabria's remarks.  looks to me like a whoopsie

Calabria:  "As the Council found, risk-based capital and leverage ratio requirements materially less than those in the proposed rule would likely not adequately mitigate the potential stability risk posed by the Enterprises. Indeed, more capital might be necessary."