Author Topic: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.  (Read 4632990 times)

orthopa

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #16060 on: October 23, 2020, 11:48:50 AM »
well said orthopa.  if Biden wins and SCOTUS is argued, then that would indicate that the inmates truly are running the Trump asylum.  though if you believe that Ps win before SCOTUS, you might want to sell only a little


In the event of a Biden win and a P SCOTUS win, it's unclear to me how the SPS gets written down.

Then you have Calabria whos job maybe on the line with the SCOTUS negotiating the future of housing finance in the US with a democrat treasury secretary being advised by Jim Parrot et al. Thats a nightmare. In that case is a consent decree even written if a 4th PSPA isn't agreed to? How can you have a Biden win, an argued SCOTUS case, no PSPA and a consent decree? That combo doesn't work.

If Calabria and Mnuchin are serious about this the SCOTUS is never argued, especially with a Biden win. If not time to walk away if not run.

can't deny this other than to say that my investment thesis would still be intact:  TINA and Ps will win.  IRR goes out the window I admit

The question is even if damage remedy decided how far of a 180 can a Dem President, Secretary, and FHFA director take FnF and shareholder returns with them.



Jcmeg35

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #16061 on: October 27, 2020, 02:03:33 PM »
Looks like FHFA finalized strategic plan for 21'-24' today. At least another step behind us now, admittedly a less important one.

https://www.fhfa.gov/Media/PublicAffairs/Pages/FHFA-Strategic-Plan-for-FY-2021-2024-Finalized.aspx

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #16062 on: October 27, 2020, 02:38:34 PM »
Looks like another timeline delay from what Calabria has said in the past. Though, also seems to imply the use of a consent decree:


https://www.americanbanker.com/news/fannie-and-freddie-will-likely-exit-conservatorship-by-2024-calabria-says

is he implying or are we inferring?  Calabria seems to think that being in consent decree is still being in conservatorship if he goes the consent decree route.  I think this is linguistics/PR unless the consent decree actually purports to carryover full conservatorship power, in which case there will be no public offerings.

WB_fan82

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #16063 on: October 27, 2020, 02:50:42 PM »
This is an old article...

Jcmeg35

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #16064 on: October 27, 2020, 02:58:08 PM »
You are right, my mistake! Thanks for pointing out.

This is an old article...

orthopa

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #16065 on: October 27, 2020, 03:02:19 PM »
It seems the way to move forward with this would be and could be much simpler then these 2(mnuchin and calabria) seem to make it. If we remember correctly Calabria came out guns a blazin here (https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/fannie-freddie-ipo-could-come-in-2020-fhfa-mark-calabria) and then the Bloomberg article about waiting till after the election came out and the brakes have been on big time. FHFA/Treasury has needed to stall and he certainly did his aprt waiting 5-6 months longer then the above article implies for new capital rule after treasury waited 3-4 months for the Housing plan.  Hopefully the Bloomberg article is true or we may all have been taken for fools to believe what has been said.

Calabria seems pretty confident that he will be in office for his whole term. Granted this article was printed pre Selia but he still seems to believe he cannot be removed without cause. Surely he knows about the possibility of a Biden win and the Selia precedent in ruling.

orthopa

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #16066 on: October 27, 2020, 03:05:36 PM »
It seems the way to move forward with this would be and could be much simpler then these 2(mnuchin and calabria) seem to make it. If we remember correctly Calabria came out guns a blazin here (https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/fannie-freddie-ipo-could-come-in-2020-fhfa-mark-calabria) and then the Bloomberg article about waiting till after the election came out and the brakes have been on big time. FHFA/Treasury has needed to stall and he certainly did his aprt waiting 5-6 months longer then the above article implies for new capital rule after treasury waited 3-4 months for the Housing plan.  Hopefully the Bloomberg article is true or we may all have been taken for fools to believe what has been said.

Calabria seems pretty confident that he will be in office for his whole term. Granted this article was printed pre Selia but he still seems to believe he cannot be removed without cause. Surely he knows about the possibility of a Biden win and the Selia precedent in ruling.

A quote from the above video 5/10/19.

"Calabria is currently waiting on a plan from the U.S. Treasury on reform for Fannie and Freddie, which he expects this summer. Then he will negotiate with Treasury and hopes to come to an agreement by the fall that would then allow them to stop Fannie and Freddie from sending all profits to Treasury later this year. That is, ending the so-called net sweep. By January, Calabria wants to start the capital-building process and thinks itís possible an IPO could occur at the earliest in the first half of next year."

Wow.

orthopa

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #16067 on: October 27, 2020, 03:49:38 PM »
Going back to what Mnuchin has said publically on FnF its very interesting to hear this interview now, 13 months later knowing where we are with the Selia ruling and SCOTUS https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/treasury-secretary-steven-mnuchin-trump-administration-fannie-mae-freddie-mac-reform

He says "regardless" of what happens with the court case he will not let the court case stand in the way of housing finance reform and "we" will restructure Fannie mae and Freddie mac so they have private capital. How the hell can they do that "regardless" of the court case NOW?

He says the court case is an "investor issue" that continues to go through the legal process. Clearly 13 months ago he viewed the 2 as separate issues. 1. An "investor issue" going through the legal process and 2. the building of private capital for FnF. Clearly DOJ has brought him up to date since that interview since they are unquestionably tied at the hip. Looks like to me the SG holds the reins on the SCOTUS case and not Mnuchin in anyway whatsoever.


WB_fan82

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #16068 on: October 27, 2020, 05:23:10 PM »
It's super easy to get private capital into the GSEs.  Just stop the NWS.  And convert it to common.  voila.

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #16069 on: October 27, 2020, 07:44:33 PM »
It's super easy to get private capital into the GSEs.  Just stop the NWS.  And convert it to common.  voila.

no. you have to eliminate it not convert it.  if it were to be converted to common, common will go to $.10. good luck raising >$200B of equity then.