Author Topic: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.  (Read 3706811 times)

investorG

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9700 on: April 17, 2018, 04:34:10 AM »
I re-read the appointments section, hoping to become more optimistic.  fortunately, we found a thoughtful and apparently sympathetic judge.  the constitutional angle, though, is a huge reach, it seems the very definition of 'legislating from the bench'.  I think the most likely outcome is a loss but with some language in there that encourages appeals to a higher level court that has more authority to possibly side with us.   and even in the small chance that we won in this judge's court, i'd guess an appeal is almost certain; whereas if we won in some other cases, maybe more of a settlement.


cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9701 on: April 17, 2018, 07:45:21 AM »
I re-read the appointments section, hoping to become more optimistic.  fortunately, we found a thoughtful and apparently sympathetic judge.  the constitutional angle, though, is a huge reach, it seems the very definition of 'legislating from the bench'.  I think the most likely outcome is a loss but with some language in there that encourages appeals to a higher level court that has more authority to possibly side with us.   and even in the small chance that we won in this judge's court, i'd guess an appeal is almost certain; whereas if we won in some other cases, maybe more of a settlement.

an appeal is certain.

i wouldnt call it legislating from the bench exactly, as the judge is being asked to define what period is "reasonable under the circumstances" for confirmation of a director to replace an acting director (the office of legislative counsel opinion, which both sides agree is relevant). 

the use of a bright line 2 years has many advantages, not the least that it is the maximum period for a recess appointment (which is actually specifically permitted by constitution...constitution is silent on acting directors).  indeed, judge schlitz called the two year bright line a good analogy. 

the best i saw defendants come up with is the apparent authority argument, which judge intimated was inappropriate for constitutional violations, and leave it up to congress to fix...except congress could have subjected HERA to the Vacancies Act, but elected to not do so...so one could conclude that congress already did act in HERA.
« Last Edit: April 18, 2018, 11:13:21 AM by cherzeca »

investorG

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9702 on: April 23, 2018, 08:03:30 AM »
besides government greed, what's the downside of stopping the sweep and turning on the currently-dormant periodic commitment fee as a replacement compensation for the capital backstop?   unless I am mistaken, mnuchin and watt - who have authority at the moment on this issue - have both said they don't want the GSEs to be shut down.
« Last Edit: April 23, 2018, 08:11:33 AM by investorG »

rros

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9703 on: April 23, 2018, 09:35:55 AM »
besides government greed, what's the downside of stopping the sweep and turning on the currently-dormant periodic commitment fee as a replacement compensation for the capital backstop?   unless I am mistaken, mnuchin and watt - who have authority at the moment on this issue - have both said they don't want the GSEs to be shut down.
The sweep is actually a *variable* dividend. How do you stop it? Make a fixed one of 1%? 3%? 5%? Declare the Srs. paid off? Any radical change to the sweep will be considered by Congress -perhaps correctly- an attempt to rebuild capital moving away from congressional reform. It will all depend on the narrative Treasury comes up with.
« Last Edit: April 23, 2018, 12:29:03 PM by rros »

emily

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9704 on: April 24, 2018, 09:39:40 AM »
Pershing square holdings acquires another 44.7 million common shares (Pershing capital already had 115 million common shares) ? and American capital acquires another 3.3 million common shares?. What is going on? The price is dropping on commons, there is gloom and doom on GSE  stock but Pershing  and American capital buy even more? Something that we don’t know or they are fools?

http://markets.money.cnn.com/research/quote/shareholders.asp?symb=FNM&subView=institutional

investorG

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9705 on: April 24, 2018, 10:26:57 AM »
Pershing square holdings acquires another 44.7 million common shares (Pershing capital already had 115 million common shares) ? and American capital acquires another 3.3 million common shares?. What is going on? The price is dropping on commons, there is gloom and doom on GSE  stock but Pershing  and American capital buy even more? Something that we don’t know or they are fools?

http://markets.money.cnn.com/research/quote/shareholders.asp?symb=FNM&subView=institutional

capital bought a little more in the quarter but the pershing info is old and stale.  rather, i'm kinda anticipating some WSJ news story that ackman or some other large common holder has fully exited their common position.

emily

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9706 on: April 24, 2018, 10:37:38 AM »
On page 13 (filed few days ago).
“Presently, the Funds’ holdings amount, collectively, to approximately 10% of the outstanding common stock of each Company, and the Funds together constitute the Companies’ largest common shareholder”

http://gselinks.com/Court_Filings/Rafter/14-740-0027.pdf


So you think they unloaded  115 million shares in last 3 days? Or the info in this filing is wrong?


Pershing square holdings acquires another 44.7 million common shares (Pershing capital already had 115 million common shares) ? and American capital acquires another 3.3 million common shares?. What is going on? The price is dropping on commons, there is gloom and doom on GSE  stock but Pershing  and American capital buy even more? Something that we don’t know or they are fools?

http://markets.money.cnn.com/research/quote/shareholders.asp?symb=FNM&subView=institutional

capital bought a little more in the quarter but the pershing info is old and stale.  rather, i'm kinda anticipating some WSJ news story that ackman or some other large common holder has fully exited their common position.

blackcoffee

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9707 on: April 24, 2018, 10:51:08 AM »

So you think they unloaded  115 million shares in last 3 days? Or the info in this filing is wrong?

I'm sure they're misrepresenting material information to the courts... whoops sorry no that's what the defendants do in these cases.. sorry I got my wires crossed.

rros

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9708 on: April 24, 2018, 10:55:55 AM »
As mentioned since January, watch April/May. I am now seeing potential recession by July. This downdraft together with congress legislative failure and the fear of Watt being replaced next year maybe the sweetest "exigent" recipe. The 10Y T will not break through 3%.
« Last Edit: April 24, 2018, 10:58:06 AM by rros »

investorG

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9709 on: April 24, 2018, 11:59:34 AM »
On page 13 (filed few days ago).
“Presently, the Funds’ holdings amount, collectively, to approximately 10% of the outstanding common stock of each Company, and the Funds together constitute the Companies’ largest common shareholder”

http://gselinks.com/Court_Filings/Rafter/14-740-0027.pdf


So you think they unloaded  115 million shares in last 3 days? Or the info in this filing is wrong?


Pershing square holdings acquires another 44.7 million common shares (Pershing capital already had 115 million common shares) ? and American capital acquires another 3.3 million common shares?. What is going on? The price is dropping on commons, there is gloom and doom on GSE  stock but Pershing  and American capital buy even more? Something that we don’t know or they are fools?

http://markets.money.cnn.com/research/quote/shareholders.asp?symb=FNM&subView=institutional

capital bought a little more in the quarter but the pershing info is old and stale.  rather, i'm kinda anticipating some WSJ news story that ackman or some other large common holder has fully exited their common position.

the adding portion was stale.  the existing portion, I was guessing they might have been the seller but the filing you highligted does say 'presently' when referring to their 10pct stake.  so my guess is likely wrong.  if they aren't selling, and capital held/increased, i'm stunned that the common dropped 60pct between dec and april.