Author Topic: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.  (Read 3642891 times)

investorG

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 702
Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9710 on: April 24, 2018, 11:59:34 AM »
On page 13 (filed few days ago).
“Presently, the Funds’ holdings amount, collectively, to approximately 10% of the outstanding common stock of each Company, and the Funds together constitute the Companies’ largest common shareholder”

http://gselinks.com/Court_Filings/Rafter/14-740-0027.pdf


So you think they unloaded  115 million shares in last 3 days? Or the info in this filing is wrong?


Pershing square holdings acquires another 44.7 million common shares (Pershing capital already had 115 million common shares) ? and American capital acquires another 3.3 million common shares?. What is going on? The price is dropping on commons, there is gloom and doom on GSE  stock but Pershing  and American capital buy even more? Something that we don’t know or they are fools?

http://markets.money.cnn.com/research/quote/shareholders.asp?symb=FNM&subView=institutional

capital bought a little more in the quarter but the pershing info is old and stale.  rather, i'm kinda anticipating some WSJ news story that ackman or some other large common holder has fully exited their common position.

the adding portion was stale.  the existing portion, I was guessing they might have been the seller but the filing you highligted does say 'presently' when referring to their 10pct stake.  so my guess is likely wrong.  if they aren't selling, and capital held/increased, i'm stunned that the common dropped 60pct between dec and april.


Luke 5:32

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2606
Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9711 on: April 25, 2018, 06:05:44 AM »
https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/4560/all-actions?loclr=cga-bill

H.R.4560 - GSE Jumpstart Reauthorization Act of 2017
Latest Action:    House - 04/24/2018 Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 497.  (All Actions)
"I wait for You and my soul finds rest. In my selfishness, You show me grace..." My Hope Is In You by Aaron https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ugD0i5Y3cw8

rros

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 986
Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9712 on: April 25, 2018, 06:49:59 AM »
https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/4560/all-actions?loclr=cga-bill

H.R.4560 - GSE Jumpstart Reauthorization Act of 2017
Latest Action:    House - 04/24/2018 Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 497.  (All Actions)

Thank you.

some changes..
https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/4560/text

Senators playing with words are more dangerous than a monkey with a thompson submachine.

rros

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 986
Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9713 on: April 25, 2018, 07:16:31 AM »
OT:

Globally, around 150 bill of green bonds (renewable energy) were issued around the world. About 56% in China, France and the US. In the US, Fannie Mae was the largest overall issuer with $24.9 billion from its green Mortgage Backed Securities programme. And the majority, globally, towards solar projects. A new line of business for Fannie, it appears.

For 2018, global green bonds are estimated to double to 300 billion. Target is 1 trillion by 2020. Although green bonds make up a small fraction of the overall bond market, they are attracting more attention because meeting emissions-cut targets will require trillions of dollars of capital from public and private sectors.
« Last Edit: April 25, 2018, 07:23:09 AM by rros »


Luke 5:32

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2606
Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9715 on: April 25, 2018, 10:27:31 AM »
FMCCL at roughly 18% of par looks super attractive here.  Yes, I'm talking my book.  ;)
"I wait for You and my soul finds rest. In my selfishness, You show me grace..." My Hope Is In You by Aaron https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ugD0i5Y3cw8

Midas79

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 533
Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9716 on: April 25, 2018, 10:31:27 AM »
the lawmaker also said he supports administrative action for reforming Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, if it comes down to that.

Only if it means gutting or winding down the GSEs, probably.

I wonder if Mnuchin is more likely to act if he gets calls from enough members of Congress to do so, even if they can't pass any legislation. He has said he wants to work with Congress: would this scenario count?

Since Treasury "is not allergic" to the utility model put forth by FHFA, ostensibly administrative reform would result in FnF continuing to be owned by shareholders, and perhaps even without competition. Utility models lend themselves to monopolies rather than lots of competitors.

Midas79

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 533
Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9717 on: April 25, 2018, 10:39:52 AM »
FMCCL at roughly 18% of par looks super attractive here.  Yes, I'm talking my book.  ;)

From my model, R^2 coefficient of "% of par vs dividend yield" hit 0.85 last week, pretty high. It's still at 0.77 now, so I have been selling high divs and buying low ones. If it gets back down to the 0.5-0.55 range I'll do the reverse. For now I'm mostly in the low-divs like FNMAL and FMCKM.

(btw I can't buy or sell the variables. They would kind of break my model anyway)

Luke 5:32

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2606
Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9718 on: April 25, 2018, 10:48:09 AM »
FMCCL at roughly 18% of par looks super attractive here.  Yes, I'm talking my book.  ;)

From my model, R^2 coefficient of "% of par vs dividend yield" hit 0.85 last week, pretty high. It's still at 0.77 now, so I have been selling high divs and buying low ones. If it gets back down to the 0.5-0.55 range I'll do the reverse. For now I'm mostly in the low-divs like FNMAL and FMCKM.

(btw I can't buy or sell the variables. They would kind of break my model anyway)

I don't factor dividends into the prefs I'm buying at all.  Not expecting the div rate to have any meaningful, if any at all, impact long-term.
"I wait for You and my soul finds rest. In my selfishness, You show me grace..." My Hope Is In You by Aaron https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ugD0i5Y3cw8

Midas79

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 533
Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9719 on: April 25, 2018, 12:30:24 PM »
I don't factor dividends into the prefs I'm buying at all.  Not expecting the div rate to have any meaningful, if any at all, impact long-term.

I have a core position that I hold on to. I just use the rest to jump around and hopefully take advantages of the sways of the market. The correlation directly reflects the market's opinion of the probability that dividends ever get turned back on. I leave out FNMAS and FMCKJ on purpose to avoid liquidity premiums tainting the data, but I include FNMAT when I perhaps shouldn't.