Author Topic: Year End Tax Loss Harvesting Ideas  (Read 433 times)

BG2008

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Year End Tax Loss Harvesting Ideas
« on: Today at 11:58:35 AM »
2019 vintage is not as good as 2018 vintage for year end tax loss harvesting, but I'll try

E&P in general - Antero Resources and Antero Midstream
DuPont - Maybe?
IDW Media

Anyone notice any indiscriminate year end loss harvesting trading? 
Last year, Calumet experienced the most dramatic year end loss harvesting activity


NoCalledStrikes

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Re: Year End Tax Loss Harvesting Ideas
« Reply #1 on: Today at 05:43:36 PM »
Contura, CTRA,  is a good candidate. Itís down from the high $60ís since January to $20 in November to $5.90 today. It had insider buying last week.  Itís probably due for a tax sale bounce.  The biggest risk is that you forget to sell after the bounce.

Spekulatius

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Re: Year End Tax Loss Harvesting Ideas
« Reply #2 on: Today at 06:01:45 PM »
Contura, CTRA,  is a good candidate. Itís down from the high $60ís since January to $20 in November to $5.90 today. It had insider buying last week.  Itís probably due for a tax sale bounce.  The biggest risk is that you forget to sell after the bounce.

Itís probably good for a bounce. It looked at the Q3 earnings and what really surprised me is that they can sell thermal coal for $60/ ton. Isnít that more than 6x what the operators in Powder River get? I think Met coal may go down to $100/Ton - a lot of operators have a cost of $90/ ton so further drops will lead to idling of capacity.

I do like ARCH here (donít own it, but out it on my watch list) as they seem to execute well and seem to have low production cost assets.
Life is too short for cheap beer and wine.

Gregmal

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Re: Year End Tax Loss Harvesting Ideas
« Reply #3 on: Today at 06:42:49 PM »
As someone who is pretty willing to buy just about anything, including stuff I believe to ultimately be worthless, if there s a trade setup there- coal is probably one of the few things that makes me cringe. You need to have real balls to be in that space. Its like the ugliest, hairiest, turdiest bunch in an ugly, hairy turd universe. I see so many commodity/material plays out of favor right now and coal IMO is the hardest to work. I followed for a while and almost bought some Peabody bonds some years back. Well BTU went bankrupt, then reissued new company equity, and now is going to 0 again like 2 years later...Thats coal right now. WITH a republican president! Good luck to you brave men who dare venture into that space.

NoCalledStrikes

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Re: Year End Tax Loss Harvesting Ideas
« Reply #4 on: Today at 07:24:12 PM »
Contura, CTRA,  is a good candidate. Itís down from the high $60ís since January to $20 in November to $5.90 today. It had insider buying last week.  Itís probably due for a tax sale bounce.  The biggest risk is that you forget to sell after the bounce.

Itís probably good for a bounce. It looked at the Q3 earnings and what really surprised me is that they can sell thermal coal for $60/ ton. Isnít that more than 6x what the operators in Powder River get? I think Met coal may go down to $100/Ton - a lot of operators have a cost of $90/ ton so further drops will lead to idling of capacity.

I do like ARCH here (donít own it, but out it on my watch list) as they seem to execute well and seem to have low production cost assets.
Powder River Coal has is 1/3 less energy content than Appalachian thermal coal and sells for $12-13/ton. The only reason people buy PRB coal is that it is low sulfur.  Its low energy density and remote location also increases rail shipping costs.

Contura price realizations Nov 2019
CAPP - Met (includes T&L) $108.35
CAPP Ė Thermal $61.46 (Central Appalachian)
NAPP - Thermal $41.33  (Northern Appalachian)