Author Topic: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.  (Read 3706621 times)

Luke 5:32

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9710 on: April 25, 2018, 06:05:44 AM »
https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/4560/all-actions?loclr=cga-bill

H.R.4560 - GSE Jumpstart Reauthorization Act of 2017
Latest Action:    House - 04/24/2018 Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 497.  (All Actions)
A wise husband, a wise father, asks God for help. Don't be a prideful, self-reliant fool. "Father, lead me, 'cause I can't do this alone..." Lead Me by Sanctus Real: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLr6G8Xy5uc


rros

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9711 on: April 25, 2018, 06:49:59 AM »
https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/4560/all-actions?loclr=cga-bill

H.R.4560 - GSE Jumpstart Reauthorization Act of 2017
Latest Action:    House - 04/24/2018 Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 497.  (All Actions)

Thank you.

some changes..
https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/4560/text

Senators playing with words are more dangerous than a monkey with a thompson submachine.

rros

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9712 on: April 25, 2018, 07:16:31 AM »
OT:

Globally, around 150 bill of green bonds (renewable energy) were issued around the world. About 56% in China, France and the US. In the US, Fannie Mae was the largest overall issuer with $24.9 billion from its green Mortgage Backed Securities programme. And the majority, globally, towards solar projects. A new line of business for Fannie, it appears.

For 2018, global green bonds are estimated to double to 300 billion. Target is 1 trillion by 2020. Although green bonds make up a small fraction of the overall bond market, they are attracting more attention because meeting emissions-cut targets will require trillions of dollars of capital from public and private sectors.
« Last Edit: April 25, 2018, 07:23:09 AM by rros »


Luke 5:32

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9714 on: April 25, 2018, 10:27:31 AM »
FMCCL at roughly 18% of par looks super attractive here.  Yes, I'm talking my book.  ;)
A wise husband, a wise father, asks God for help. Don't be a prideful, self-reliant fool. "Father, lead me, 'cause I can't do this alone..." Lead Me by Sanctus Real: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLr6G8Xy5uc

Midas79

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9715 on: April 25, 2018, 10:31:27 AM »
the lawmaker also said he supports administrative action for reforming Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, if it comes down to that.

Only if it means gutting or winding down the GSEs, probably.

I wonder if Mnuchin is more likely to act if he gets calls from enough members of Congress to do so, even if they can't pass any legislation. He has said he wants to work with Congress: would this scenario count?

Since Treasury "is not allergic" to the utility model put forth by FHFA, ostensibly administrative reform would result in FnF continuing to be owned by shareholders, and perhaps even without competition. Utility models lend themselves to monopolies rather than lots of competitors.

Midas79

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9716 on: April 25, 2018, 10:39:52 AM »
FMCCL at roughly 18% of par looks super attractive here.  Yes, I'm talking my book.  ;)

From my model, R^2 coefficient of "% of par vs dividend yield" hit 0.85 last week, pretty high. It's still at 0.77 now, so I have been selling high divs and buying low ones. If it gets back down to the 0.5-0.55 range I'll do the reverse. For now I'm mostly in the low-divs like FNMAL and FMCKM.

(btw I can't buy or sell the variables. They would kind of break my model anyway)

Luke 5:32

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9717 on: April 25, 2018, 10:48:09 AM »
FMCCL at roughly 18% of par looks super attractive here.  Yes, I'm talking my book.  ;)

From my model, R^2 coefficient of "% of par vs dividend yield" hit 0.85 last week, pretty high. It's still at 0.77 now, so I have been selling high divs and buying low ones. If it gets back down to the 0.5-0.55 range I'll do the reverse. For now I'm mostly in the low-divs like FNMAL and FMCKM.

(btw I can't buy or sell the variables. They would kind of break my model anyway)

I don't factor dividends into the prefs I'm buying at all.  Not expecting the div rate to have any meaningful, if any at all, impact long-term.
A wise husband, a wise father, asks God for help. Don't be a prideful, self-reliant fool. "Father, lead me, 'cause I can't do this alone..." Lead Me by Sanctus Real: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLr6G8Xy5uc

Midas79

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9718 on: April 25, 2018, 12:30:24 PM »
I don't factor dividends into the prefs I'm buying at all.  Not expecting the div rate to have any meaningful, if any at all, impact long-term.

I have a core position that I hold on to. I just use the rest to jump around and hopefully take advantages of the sways of the market. The correlation directly reflects the market's opinion of the probability that dividends ever get turned back on. I leave out FNMAS and FMCKJ on purpose to avoid liquidity premiums tainting the data, but I include FNMAT when I perhaps shouldn't.

orthopa

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9719 on: April 26, 2018, 11:36:32 AM »
I don't factor dividends into the prefs I'm buying at all.  Not expecting the div rate to have any meaningful, if any at all, impact long-term.

I have a core position that I hold on to. I just use the rest to jump around and hopefully take advantages of the sways of the market. The correlation directly reflects the market's opinion of the probability that dividends ever get turned back on. I leave out FNMAS and FMCKJ on purpose to avoid liquidity premiums tainting the data, but I include FNMAT when I perhaps shouldn't.

Im surprised the market even bothers to take divs into account at this point with some trading at the % of par that they are. 10 years into this mess for some reason that is still respected.