Author Topic: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.  (Read 3733401 times)

SnarkyPuppy

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #10360 on: August 10, 2018, 05:40:42 AM »
With that said, buying some more this morning.   It's truly amazing that some of the variable prefs trade at an implied 19% probability of attaining par value.   The odds are clearly much higher.   


allnatural

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #10361 on: August 10, 2018, 09:53:05 AM »
Right there with ya bud.

With that said, buying some more this morning.   It's truly amazing that some of the variable prefs trade at an implied 19% probability of attaining par value.   The odds are clearly much higher.

emily

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #10362 on: August 11, 2018, 08:29:10 AM »
rros is right. Shareholders after this loot are willing to settle for a whopping $3 per share? The preferred conversion to commons followed by an IPO to reissue similar junior preferred shares is just to enrich few and financial shenanigans.

Moelis plan is the best plan right now but needs lot of tweaking as it is simply funneling money.

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=142841825


I know many will simply feel happy by a windfall of any size, if it comes to that. Only a bitter-sweet victory for me. I simply can't believe tens of millions spent over 6 years in meaningful lawsuits will go by the wayside because suddenly the government unwinds the reason behind them. I prefer to believe Cooper is smarter than all of us and there is more to it in his latest filing.

rros

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #10363 on: August 11, 2018, 02:38:18 PM »
rros is right. Shareholders after this loot are willing to settle for a whopping $3 per share? The preferred conversion to commons followed by an IPO to reissue similar junior preferred shares is just to enrich few and financial shenanigans.

Moelis plan is the best plan right now but needs lot of tweaking as it is simply funneling money.

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=142841825


I know many will simply feel happy by a windfall of any size, if it comes to that. Only a bitter-sweet victory for me. I simply can't believe tens of millions spent over 6 years in meaningful lawsuits will go by the wayside because suddenly the government unwinds the reason behind them. I prefer to believe Cooper is smarter than all of us and there is more to it in his latest filing.
The point I tried to make is unrelated to any common shares plight, I am sorry. I owned a small amount a long time ago and sold them all back then. I have no opinion on the commons.

Midas79

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #10364 on: August 16, 2018, 10:40:38 AM »
@cherzeca

So as not to clutter up Tim Howard's blog, I'll ask my question about your recent post there regarding the unopposed en banc request in the All American case.

Collins will likely ask for a review of the NWS claim that was dismissed in addition to the Article II claim, and FHFA will surely oppose the NWS part of it. In your opinion, how likely is it that the 5th Circuit grants en banc on the NWS claims? I take it a review of the Article II claim can be separated from a review of the NWS claim, as in either separately or both could be reviewed without regard to the other.

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #10365 on: August 16, 2018, 01:41:30 PM »
@cherzeca

So as not to clutter up Tim Howard's blog, I'll ask my question about your recent post there regarding the unopposed en banc request in the All American case.

Collins will likely ask for a review of the NWS claim that was dismissed in addition to the Article II claim, and FHFA will surely oppose the NWS part of it. In your opinion, how likely is it that the 5th Circuit grants en banc on the NWS claims? I take it a review of the Article II claim can be separated from a review of the NWS claim, as in either separately or both could be reviewed without regard to the other.

excellent question.  I think all American's motion makes it incrementally more likely that 5th cir does not hear appeal of APA claim or hears it separately en banc, since that would be the non-common claim of any consolidated appeal.  just guessing though

Luke 5:32

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #10366 on: August 16, 2018, 01:42:06 PM »
We may be underestimating the role of Brian Brooks.

At some point, his name made the circles as one possible Under Secretary of Treasury. According to Joe Light, he has actually become an unofficial emissary spearheading a specific housing goal straight from the inside. And we already know he is a Mnuchin's man.

Even if JL/Bloomberg aim is to undermine administrative action by exposing illegal lobbying, how likely are they to succeed when the most important congress actors are hitting the exit door and the appetite for a new, more stringent Jumpstart is probably missing? If Brian Brooks has really been knocking doors for months now maybe there is some sense of urgency somewhere in the administration. As in "no need to wait for another Congress".

"One GSE watcher..." Hah!  Might as well be me, but it wasn't.  Still funny how the narrative at IMF (i.e. David Stevens) has dramatically changed in recent months.  Brooks as CEO?  Yes, please.  Even if it doesn't happen the fact that IMF (Stevens) is testing the waters with this kind of stuff seems like a positive.

https://www.insidemortgagefinance.com/imfnews/1_1422/daily/-1000047236-1.html
One GSE watcher told us that Brian Brooks, who currently serves as Fannie Maes EVP, general counsel and corporate secretary, would make a good successor to departing company CEO Timothy Mayopoulos. However, this observer added: Hes not going to take a pay cut. Congress capped GSE CEO pay at roughly $600,000 per year. Before joining Fannie in November 2014, Brooks was vice chairman of OneWest Bank, a bank Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin once owned a stake in.
A wise husband, a wise father, asks God for help. Don't be a prideful, self-reliant fool. "Father, lead me, 'cause I can't do this alone..." Lead Me by Sanctus Real: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLr6G8Xy5uc
"Life will rise, death will die..." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_uJYKoHhQo

allnatural

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #10367 on: August 16, 2018, 06:27:44 PM »
What I found interesting about the Collin's decision is that the majority went to the extra effort of distinguishing FHFA from CFPB, claiming that FHFA has less oversight than the CFPB. So while they ruled that the FHFA was unconstitutional, the majority didn't seem to believe the same in regards to CFPB. I am not sure how the All American case is attempting to piggyback on the Collins decision when it might have actually weakened their argument? Regardless, it would be nice to see en banc review on either the separation of powers remedy issue, APA issue, or ideally both. Do you know when we should find out if the 5th circuit will agree to hear these issue(s) or not? Thank you

Additionally, I believe the FHFA/Government has until Aug 30 (45 days from the decision) to petition for en banc review or 90 days from the decision for scotus review on the constitutional issues. Will be interesting to see which way the government goes here if any?

@cherzeca

So as not to clutter up Tim Howard's blog, I'll ask my question about your recent post there regarding the unopposed en banc request in the All American case.

Collins will likely ask for a review of the NWS claim that was dismissed in addition to the Article II claim, and FHFA will surely oppose the NWS part of it. In your opinion, how likely is it that the 5th Circuit grants en banc on the NWS claims? I take it a review of the Article II claim can be separated from a review of the NWS claim, as in either separately or both could be reviewed without regard to the other.

excellent question.  I think all American's motion makes it incrementally more likely that 5th cir does not hear appeal of APA claim or hears it separately en banc, since that would be the non-common claim of any consolidated appeal.  just guessing though
« Last Edit: August 16, 2018, 06:31:22 PM by allnatural »

rros

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #10368 on: August 16, 2018, 07:40:16 PM »
We may be underestimating the role of Brian Brooks.

At some point, his name made the circles as one possible Under Secretary of Treasury. According to Joe Light, he has actually become an unofficial emissary spearheading a specific housing goal straight from the inside. And we already know he is a Mnuchin's man.

Even if JL/Bloomberg aim is to undermine administrative action by exposing illegal lobbying, how likely are they to succeed when the most important congress actors are hitting the exit door and the appetite for a new, more stringent Jumpstart is probably missing? If Brian Brooks has really been knocking doors for months now maybe there is some sense of urgency somewhere in the administration. As in "no need to wait for another Congress".

"One GSE watcher..." Hah!  Might as well be me, but it wasn't.  Still funny how the narrative at IMF (i.e. David Stevens) has dramatically changed in recent months.  Brooks as CEO?  Yes, please.  Even if it doesn't happen the fact that IMF (Stevens) is testing the waters with this kind of stuff seems like a positive.

https://www.insidemortgagefinance.com/imfnews/1_1422/daily/-1000047236-1.html
One GSE watcher told us that Brian Brooks, who currently serves as Fannie Maes EVP, general counsel and corporate secretary, would make a good successor to departing company CEO Timothy Mayopoulos. However, this observer added: Hes not going to take a pay cut. Congress capped GSE CEO pay at roughly $600,000 per year. Before joining Fannie in November 2014, Brooks was vice chairman of OneWest Bank, a bank Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin once owned a stake in.
Things are beginning to take shape.

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #10369 on: August 16, 2018, 08:07:17 PM »
@allnatural

separate "FHFA/Government".  fhfa will want to appeal/seek en banc rehearing.  not so justice dept.

cfpb has not opposed initial en banc hearing in all American.  so seems to me that all American's motion helps collins in seeking rehearing en banc of the relief granted in separation of powers opinion since all parties (except maybe justice dept) will want it.